bewhere finland – a comprehensive modelling approach for ... › ... › 2_karthik_1_ibw.pdf ·...
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Karthikeyan Natarajan Doctoral student
School of Forest Sciences, UEF, Joensuu [email protected]
Supervisors Prof. Paavo Pelkonen, Dr. Sylvain Leduc School of Forest Sciences, International Institute for Applied University of Eastern Finland, Joensuu Systems Analysis (IIASA),Vienna
BeWhere Finland – A comprehensive modelling approach for sustainable bioenergy production in
Finland
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Contents
•Background
•Bioenergy in Finland
•BeWhere Finland
•Model applications: FT-biodiesel production
•Future work
10.10.2013 2 1st BeWhere Workshop / Natarajan
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Background • 2020 Renewable energy targets of Finland:
– 38% renewable energy share (from 25% 2009 ) – 25.2 PJ / 20% minimum biofuel distribution requirement (double
counting) • National Renewable Energy Action Plan:
– 13.5 Mm3 forest chips use (from 6 Mm3 2009 )
10.10.2013 3
• Technological advancements (Fischer Tropsch biodiesel production) • Structural changes in the Finnish forest industry
1st BeWhere Workshop / Natarajan
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10.10.2013 4
Different measures
• Incentives e.g, wood incentive per MWh electricity and linked with
CO2 price.
•Subsidies for small wood procurement eg. Thinning
•Mandatory blending % with fossil transport fuels
• Investment support for biomass based energy system installations
•Strong funding for energy research and development
1st BeWhere Workshop / Natarajan
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Biomass based DH/CHP plants
10.10.2013 1st BeWhere Workshop / Natarajan 5
Large scale 50 - 500 MW
Medium scale 1 - 50 MW
Small scale 5 - 200 kW
Source: Dominik
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10.10.2013 6
Fortum, Joensuu bio-oil plant
World’s first industrial-scale Integrated with CHP Capacity 50, 000 tonnes bio-oil Feedstock: woody biomass (300,000 m3 per year) Emissions: 70% compared to fossil fuels Investment cost: 30 million euros
1st BeWhere Workshop / Natarajan
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10.10.2013 1st BeWhere Workshop / Natarajan 7
Integrated biorefinery
Source: Mc Keough 2007
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10.10.2013 8
Energy demand .transport fuel .district heating
Candidate sites
.close to biomass supply
.close to energy demand
.pulp & paper industry
.ports
Transport network .Road origin destination
++++++++++++ .Rail origin terminal destination
Biomass supply
Forest
Sawmill
Import
CHP
Pellet
Pulp mill
Bioenergy
Model results
1.plant no
2.optimal location
3.Size
4.biomass area
5.biomass share
6.biofuel sold
7.heat sold
8.electricity sold
9. minimized costs
a.biomass
b.transport
c.production
d.fuel station
10.biofuel cost
11.CO2 emissions
12.parameter sensitivity
13.biofuelblend
14.import &export
Constraints .biomass supply .production plant .energy demand .heat transport
Parameters .biofuel yield .heat yield .electricity yield .emission factor
Other costs .fossil fuel .heat price .electricity price
Bioenergy supply chain costs
Biomass Biomass transport
Production Biodiesel transport
Distribution
.harvesting
.forwarding
.chipping
.storage
.truck
.train .investment .operation & maintenance .interest rate
.truck
.train .fuel station
Biomass supply
Bioenergy production
Biofuel demand
Heat Demand
BeWhere Finland
1st BeWhere Workshop / Natarajan
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10.10.2013 9
Eastern Finland - Model Scheme
1st BeWhere Workshop / Natarajan
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Influence of CO2 cost on technology diffusion
and emission savings
10.10.2013 10
Optimal plant locations
1st BeWhere Workshop / Natarajan
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Flow of Feedstock and energy
10.10.2013 11 1st BeWhere Workshop / Natarajan
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10.10.2013 12
Source: Thomas Gschwantner
Logging residues
Pulpwood
Sawwood
Sawmill residuals
Stumps and roots
1st BeWhere Workshop / Natarajan
Source: pic 2 and 4 are from Google
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10.10.2013 13
Spatial distribution of feedstock resources
1st BeWhere Workshop / Natarajan
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Transport Network
10.10.2013 14 1st BeWhere Workshop / Natarajan
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Energy demand
10.10.2013 15 1st BeWhere Workshop / Natarajan
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Scenarios for 2020 biofuel target
•Base Scenario •Feedstock availability
• Industrial competition
•Parameter costs and energy price
10.10.2013 16 1st BeWhere Workshop / Natarajan
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Results
10.10.2013 17 1st BeWhere Workshop / Natarajan
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Cost-optimal locations
•Five FTplants : Rovaniemi, Lapinjärvi, Rauma, Salo, Kauhava >130times •Minimised transportation
costs means abundant feedstock supply and high energy demand • Max heat transport distance
10.10.2013 18 1st BeWhere Workshop / Natarajan
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Cost breakdown of biodiesel production supply chain
10.10.2013 19
P1 P2 P3 P4 P5
M€
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140Forest biomass Sawmill residual Biomass transport Production
Biodiesel transport Distribution Heat income Electricity income
1st BeWhere Workshop / Natarajan
•P3 produces the cheapest biodiesel. •Unit cost varied between
22.15€/GJ and 22.49€/GJ without any by-product sales. 13%
8%
6%
49%
1% 7%
8% 8%
Biomass Cost
Sawmill ResidualsCostBiomass Transport
Production Cost
Biofuel Transport
Distribution Cost
Heat Income
Electricity Income
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Biomass supply and feedstock resource allocation
10.10.2013 1st BeWhere Workshop / Natarajan 20
Forest harvesting (%)
-20 0 20 40
Feed
stoc
k us
ed (P
J)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60Energywood Sawmill residual
Industrial competition (%)
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60
Feed
stoc
k us
ed (P
J)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60Energywood Sawmill residual
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Costs and feedstock resource allocation
10.10.2013 21 1st BeWhere Workshop / Natarajan
•30% decrease would completely substitute sawmill residuals •30% increase = 40% energy
wood + 51% pulpwood + 9% sawmill residuals •40% increase = pulpwood
replace energywood completely
Energywood cost (%)
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60
Feed
stoc
k us
ed (P
J)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Energywood Sawmill residual Pulpwood
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10.10.2013 22
Costs and feedstock resource allocation
1st BeWhere Workshop / Natarajan
Maximum pulpwood utilization potential at -30%
SMR price no influence as maximum utilization potential is reached
Pulpwood cost (%)
-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0
Feed
stoc
k us
ed (P
J)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Energywood Sawmill residual Pulpwood
Sawmill residual cost (%)
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60F
eeds
tock
use
d (P
J)0
10
20
30
40
50
60Energywood Sawmill residual
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10.10.2013 23
Costs and feedstock resource allocation
1st BeWhere Workshop / Natarajan
•31 PJ of wood imports used when 40% decrease in cost •Cost changes in energywood,
pulpwood and sawmill residuals did not influence •Because:
– Expensive – Longer transport distance
Wood import cost (%)
-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0
Feed
stoc
k us
ed (P
J)0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Energywood Sawmill residual Wood import
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Influence of biofuel import price and fossil diesel price on the 2020 biofuel target
10.10.2013 24 1st BeWhere Workshop / Natarajan
Biofuel import price (%)
-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0
2020
Bio
fuel
targ
et (P
J)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30 FT-biodiesel production Biofuel import
Fossil diesel price (%)
-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0
2020
Bio
fuel
targ
et (P
J)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30 FT-biodiesel production Fossil diesel consumption
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Parameter sensitivity analysis
10.10.2013 25 1st BeWhere Workshop / Natarajan
Parameter change (%)
-40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40
Var
iatio
n of
FT-
biod
iese
l cos
t (%
)
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Feedstock share Industrial demand Energywood cost Transport cost Investment cost Heat price Electricity price Plant size Conversion efficiency
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Future work
10.10.2013 26 1st BeWhere Workshop / Natarajan
Social
Environment Economy
Sustainability
Employment
LCA
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Publications •Natarajan K, Leduc S, Pelkonen P, Tomppo E, Dotzauer E. Potential
expansion of second generation Fischer-Tropsch biodiesel industry in Finland. Renewable Energy 62 (2014) 319e330. • Natarajan K, Leduc S, Pelkonen P, Tomppo E, Dotzauer E. Optimal
Locations for Methanol and CHP Production in Eastern Finland. BioEnergy Research 2012;5:412-23.
10.10.2013 1st BeWhere Workshop / Natarajan 27
• International Nordic Bioenergy Conference 2011, 5-9 September
2011, Jyväskylä, Finland. •World Bioenergy 2012, 29-31 May 2012, Jönköping, Sweden. •Nordic Wood Biorefinery Conference (NWBC) 2012, 23-25 October
2012, Helsinki, Finland
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THANK YOU!