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Carl KirsteinExxaro Resources Ltd.

Beyond Mobile Asset Management


Data transfer speeds, storage, and processing power aregrowing exponentially* while the cost, size and powerconsumption are reducing at similar rates. Thingsunthinkable before have become possible, and eveninevitable.

But…

*#1 Gflops (year) = 72.472e0.6633(year-1993)

Main Message

Mastering SAP Plant Maintenance 2015 | 2


• Emergent Technology

• Workforce of the Future

• Riding the Wave

• Questions

• Key Points to Take Home

What I’ll Cover



Technology in industry has been catching on slowly,because the repercussions of unreliability is far greaterthan not getting Facebook updates for a day or two. Alsoeverything connected is vulnerable to hackers and crackers.But technology and all its unknowns beckons to us…

The future depends on what you do today

Mahatma Gandhi

Introduction and Overview


Emergent Technology


(within the next 5 to 8 years… probably)

It is always wise to look ahead, butdifficult to look further than you cansee.

Winston Churchill


Emergent TechnologyVirtual Reality Augmented Reality Extrasensory

Internet of Things Big Data

3D Printing

Machine Learning & AI Exoskeletons & RoboticsAutomated Intelligence


Virtual Reality


Virtual Reality


Virtual Reality

Virtual Reality (VR) is an immersive simulated environment, i.e. an artificial reality


• Useful to immerse users in environments that are too dangerous or expensive otherwise.

– Simulators

– REDS: Readiness Exercises and Disaster Simulation

Virtual Reality


Google Cardboard (now)$25*

Commercially available now or within 1 year

Samsung Gear VR (now)$200*

Sony Project Morpheus (2016)<$1,000

Oculus Rift Crescent Bay (2016)$300 - $400

HTC Vive (2016)<$1,000

Carl-Zeiss VR One (now)$99*

Avegant Glyph (2015)≈$500


• Limited application beyond training, entertainment and conferencing.

• Sim Sickness - ‘reverse’ motion sickness • VR is likely to be short-lived.

Virtual Reality


Augmented Reality


Augmented Reality


Augmented Reality

Augmented Reality (AR) is an information layer on reality, i.e. an enriched reality


• Useful to guide or inform users in actual environments

• Information is meant to be provided where it is applied,

but can also simulate realities like VR does.

Augmented Reality


• Bona fide AR ‘senses’ and ‘interprets’ its environment andoverlays information on it. If the environment is notinterpreted, then it is a HUD or VR, not AR.

• Note: Some devices are marketed as AR, but they are onlyHUDs. With improved software they might become ARcapable.

Augmented RealityH

UD

AR


• Barcode and QR-code scanners are reliable and fast

• Face recognition becoming more reliable and fast

Augmented Reality – how good is it now?


• General image recognition becoming much faster.

• Spatial- and colour scanning in real time with a device of $100

(accuracy up to 1mm)

Augmented Reality – how good is it now?


Commercially Available right now

ODG R-6 Smart Glasses$4,950http://www.osterhoutgroup.com/system-products

Vuzix M-100$999

http://www.vuzix.com/consumer/products_m100/

http://www.osterhoutgroup.com/system-products

http://www.vuzix.com/consumer/products_m100/


Commercially Available within 2 years

DAQRI Smart helmet$5,000 - $10,000

ODG Consumer Glasses≈$1,000

CastAR≈$400

Epson Moverio BT-200≈$700

Meta 1 (DK)$667 - $3,650

Laster SeeThru≈$350


Sony SED-E1≈$840

Optinvent ORA-1≈$950

Atheer One$500 - $850

Google Glass 1.0 2.0≈$1,500

Microsoft Hololens$800 - $2,000

Recon Jet≈$700

Commercially Available within 2 years


Augmented Reality - is not just augmented sight

http://news.microsoft.com/stories/independence-day/

http://news.microsoft.com/stories/independence-day/


• Extremely difficult to apply in an open world

– information richness and reliability of software

– social- and privacy issues (e.g. Google Glass)

• Firstly will be confined to controlled environments suchas operating rooms, workshops, industrial plants,warehouses, showrooms, and similar.

Augmented Reality


Extrasensory Technology


Extrasensory


Extrasensory

Extrasensory (ES not ESP) is ‘hidden’ information layers of reality, i.e. reality we cannot perceive without help

Time Spectrum Spatial


Extrasensory

Useful to get more information about the real world

Extrasensory today

• Thermography and thermo-chemical imaging

• Vibration and Acoustic• X-Rays and millimetre wave

scanning• Visual spatial scanning• Oil analyses• Spectroscopic, surface

analysis, SQUID, etc.• Pressure- and flow gauges

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/1d/Electrical_fault.jpg

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/1d/Electrical_fault.jpg


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Extrasensory - Size

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Extrasensory - Costs


Extrasensory

Monitor condition of personnel as well as equipment. PPE ofthe future?

Blood pressure sensor (1mm)

wireless electrocardiography system


Condition- and Performance Monitoring will continuallybecome cheaper.

• Mobile Assets: more fixed ConMon devices

• Fixed Assets: more mobile ConMon devices

Will shift more maintenance tactics towards conditionbased… with Automated Intelligence new tactics such asprobability based, risk based or even value based willbecome prominent.

…but ConMon devices will require more (sophisticated) maintenance as well.

Extrasensory


3D Printing


3D Printing


3D Printing

3D printing is a type of Additive Manufacturing


3D Printing

Additive manufacturing such as 3D printing has been around for a while and is useful for various applications

• Little to no waste.

• Build from the inside-out instead of outside-in: less assembly required; more possibilities.

• Buy or create designs, and manufacture it immediately (rapid availability, prototyping)

Applications of 3D printing started getting creative…


• Stronger and cheaper* than before.

• Not likely to replace all kinds of manufacturing, only a portion.Economies of scale.

• Physical updates to equipment similar to App updates? Just downloadand ‘manufacture’ the latest design for the next maintenanceintervention.

3D Printing


Automated Intelligence


Internet of Things

Big Data

Machine Learning & AI


• IoT – Internet of Things, devices talking to devices.

• Big Data – too much structured and unstructured data to process or store conventionally.

• Machine Learning – algorithms that are ‘trained’ by new data.

• AI – Artificial Intelligence.


All of these are interlinked towardautomated data processing anddecision making.


• Data Science and Data Analytics seems to be the newfrontier of EAM solutions.

• Intelligence of analytical tools are increasing rapidly,predictive capabilities improving with learning machines.

• Eventually automated intelligence is supposed to provideanswers to questions you did not know to ask.

• in EAM currently

– SAP BI + Analytics

– IBM Oracle + Watson




Readings - ‘unintelligible’, 1s and 0s, meters, gauges, instrumentation, etc

Processed Data – KPIs vs targets, ratios, aggregates, etc

Processed Information – analysis, interpretation, diagnosis

Processed Knowledge – decisions, prognosis, prediction


• Open letter to safe-guard against AI… but AI likely toremain niche intelligences for the foreseeable future.

• Personal assistants up next, with much research goinginto analysing and predicting you.

– Google Now + Brain

– Microsoft Cortana + Einstein

– Apple Siri + Viv

– … big brother?



• Most automated intelligence drives are into the trough of disillusionment on the Gartner hype curve

– Some see Big Data as a fad, stating that faster data is better than more data.

– Some say that IoT is stupid devices talking each other… why does my fridge need to monitor my Facebook pages and tell my irrigation system what to do?

– Some big names calls AI an existential threat to humanity (Elon Musk, Stephen Hawking, Bill Gates, Steve Wozniak, and more).

– distrust of government and threat from cyber criminals pose serious threats

• … but it will probably prevail for better or worse.



Exoskeletons & Robotics


Exoskeletons & Robotics


• External augmentation of physical capabilities

Exoskeletons and Robotics


• Current trends

– Safe human-robot interaction: soft- and ‘aware’ robots

– Non-powered exoskeletons

– Mechanization of operations



• Long-term trends

– Brain-Computer Interface

– Powered Exoskeletons

(DARPA, Hulc, Cyberdyne)



• Unmanned robots maintaining equipment is harder than replacing management with automated intelligence.

• It is likely that workers will be assisted more and more with tools such as exoskeletons and maybe even robotic rigs.



Workforce of the Future


Who are the employees of tomorrow?

genetic engineeringquantum computingunmanned vehicles

nano-technologyclimate engineering

smart citiesgraphene


• Gen-Y (millennials) will be 75% of workforce by 2020.

• Children growing up with tablets today… AR tomorrow?



• Technological Advancement in a company is constrained by the required skills and political expectations.

Workforce of the FutureFT

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Technological advancement

Highly Skilled – professional or specialist

Skilled – trade or qualification

Semi-skilled or unskilled

Future Skills Supply and Demand in Europe -- Forecast 2012

Labour Force by Level of Qualification (Europe)


• BMW technician qualification level in 2015 vs 2000?

• Some large companies establish their own universities

• Education and training techniques need radical innovation

Quality of educators & coaches; cost & time; relevance of content;fit-for-individual; information accessibility; and assessment quality(assurance of capability).



• Emergent and Current Education Innovations

– Open Content – Wikipedia, Youtube, Howstuffworks, etc.

– MOOCs (Massive Open Online Courses) and Online Universities

– Gamification – e.g. Duolingo for languages

– Learning Analytics – predictive analytics used to evaluate ‘students’ and customise training material accordingly.

– Intelligent Technology – VR, AR, and connected mobile devices

• Soon?

– Virtual coaching and assessment - In time behaviour analysis and response; media and communication method customization per person.



• Majority of demand from service sector.

• More demand for:

– Information Design & Communications

– Data Mining - Data Scientists & Data Analysts

– Robotics and Control - Engineers & Technicians

– Professionals and Specialists

– Masterdata Administrators

• Less demand for:

– Unskilled and Semi-Skilled

– Data capturers


Reports

poor data

Structured Raw Data

Archives

Unstructured Raw Data


Riding the Wave


What should I do now?

The best thing about the future isthat it comes one day at a time

Abraham Lincoln


Complexity of managing Assets is increasing, therefore

• Outsourcing of non-core functions

• OEMs selling function of their products, instead of the products.

• Total Life Cycle Management of products to provide service to client.

but 3D printing may change that

Riding the Wave


Management paradigm is shifting toward ‘sense-making’

– Probe, sense, respond more than sense, analyse, respond

– Inter-connectivity and rapidity of events has increased sensitivity of market behaviour.

Riding the Wave

Prof Dave Snowden


Riding the Wave

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• Do not fall in love with complexity. Keep it as simple as possible, but not simpler.

• Quality of information before quantity of information.

• Solid business processes, practices, and master data.

• Don’t ‘hardcode’, plan to change easily and quickly.

• Technology Roadmaps.

• Keep the end(user) in mind.

Riding the Wave

#sappm15 @masteringsap#sappm15 @masteringsap Mastering SAP Plant Maintenance 2015 | 59


Key Points to Take Home


Virtual Reality Augmented Reality Extrasensory

Internet of Things Big Data

3D Printing

Machine Learning & AI Exoskeletons & Robotics

#sappm15 @masteringsap

[email protected]

+27 12 307 4873

+27 83 408 6736

http://za.linkedin.com/pub/carl-kirstein/3/790/93a


http://za.linkedin.com/pub/carl-kirstein/3/790/93a

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