“beyond the fiscal cliff” – foord asset management

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SENATE GROUP Mike Soekoe & Heather McCulloch, 15 March 2013

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Page 1: “Beyond the fiscal cliff” – Foord asset management

SENATE GROUP

Mike Soekoe & Heather McCulloch,

15 March 2013

Page 2: “Beyond the fiscal cliff” – Foord asset management

AGENDA

• Introduction

• Investment philosophy

• Performance

• Macro: Beyond the Fiscal Cliff

MARCH 2013 FOORD ASSET MANAGEMENT 2

Page 3: “Beyond the fiscal cliff” – Foord asset management

INVESTMENT PHILOSOPHY

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4 MARCH 2013

• Take a long term view and be patient

• Ignore the benchmark when building portfolios

• Diversify and manage risk

• Provide clients with the highest return at the lowest risk

• Top down macro economic analysis, and

• Fundamental, bottom up research

• Understanding drivers of company earnings

– Balance sheet / income statement / cash flow analysis

– Economic cycles and industry changes

– Qualitative research

• Concentrated portfolio of best ideas

• Avoid the losers

INVESTMENT PHILOSOPHY

Page 5: “Beyond the fiscal cliff” – Foord asset management

PERFORMANCE

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6

Source: Morningstar

MARCH 2013 FOORD ASSET MANAGEMENT

1 year 2 years 3 years 5 years 7 years 10 years

Foord Balanced Fund 19.6% 16.4% 16.1% 10.8% 12.7% 18.5%

Average (Domestic AA Prudential Variable Equity)

15.0% 11.9% 12.0% 8.0% 10.1% 16.0%

Rank 9/103 4/89 4/76 3/65 3/46 3/23

Foord Equity Fund 20.7% 20.3% 21.7% 13.3% 14.9% 22.0%

Average 15.5% 13.1% 15.0% 8.3% 12.0% 19.9%

Rank 19/110 6/98 1/92 4/80 7/62 6/45

Foord Flexible FoF 28.8% 23.2% 21.2%

Average 21.5% 14.6% 12.7%

Rank 3/21 1/19 1/18

Foord International FF 31.3% 18.6% 12.8% 6.3%

Average 27.2% 15.9% 10.7% 3.5%

Rank 1/18 3/17 5/17 3/17

FOORD UNIT TRUSTS LIMITED Performances to 28 February 2013

Page 7: “Beyond the fiscal cliff” – Foord asset management

BEYOND THE FISCAL CLIFF

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INTERNATIONAL OUTLOOK

• US recovery continues

– Partial resolution of fiscal cliff

– Supported by improvements in housing market

– Labour markets geared to residential market recovery

• Chinese growth accelerates

– Recovery in investment spend

– Shift to consumption supported by wage growth

• European decline stabilises

– Public and private consumption not recovering fast

• Commodity prices supported by China & US recovery

• US dollar the preferred developed market currency

MARCH 2013 FOORD ASSET MANAGEMENT 8

Page 9: “Beyond the fiscal cliff” – Foord asset management

GLOBAL GROWTH ON TRACK

MARCH 2013 FOORD ASSET MANAGEMENT 9

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USA GDP GROWTH 13 Consecutive quarters of positive growth

MARCH 2013 FOORD ASSET MANAGEMENT 10

Source: I-NET

Page 11: “Beyond the fiscal cliff” – Foord asset management

US HOUSING MARKET Pent up demand building

MARCH 2013 FOORD ASSET MANAGEMENT 11

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AFFORDABILITY OF HOMES Underpins recovery

MARCH 2013 FOORD ASSET MANAGEMENT 12

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MARCH 2013 FOORD ASSET MANAGEMENT 13

Source: I-NET

US EMPLOYMENT CREATION Sensitive to housing market recovery

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US EMPLOYMENT CREATION Don’t fight the Fed

MARCH 2013 FOORD ASSET MANAGEMENT 14

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OUTLOOK FOR EUROPE No lasting improvement in sight shorter term

MARCH 2013 FOORD ASSET MANAGEMENT 15

Source: I-NET

Page 16: “Beyond the fiscal cliff” – Foord asset management

MARCH 2013 FOORD ASSET MANAGEMENT 16

EURO AREA Euro contagion risk has reduced substantially

Page 17: “Beyond the fiscal cliff” – Foord asset management

CHINESE ECONOMIC GROWTH Rebalancing from investment to consumption

MARCH 2013 FOORD ASSET MANAGEMENT 17

Source: Macquarie Research

Page 18: “Beyond the fiscal cliff” – Foord asset management

CHINESE ECONOMIC GROWTH Still some way to go…

MARCH 2013 FOORD ASSET MANAGEMENT 18

Page 19: “Beyond the fiscal cliff” – Foord asset management

SOUTH AFRICAN OUTLOOK

• SA GDP growth remains pedestrian

– Led by private and government consumption, SOE investment

– Consumption growth supported by real wage increases; grants

• Terms of trade remains weak

– Falling mining output

– Fast growing imports at higher prices due to weaker currency

• Current account deficit remains a threat to the rand

– On-going foreign investment required to fund deficit

• Higher bond yields likely

– Ratings downgrades; higher bond yields globally

MARCH 2013 FOORD ASSET MANAGEMENT 19

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MARCH 2013 FOORD ASSET MANAGEMENT 20

CONSUMER FAVOURED OVER GDFI

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GDFI GROWTH Driven by SOE’s and government

MARCH 2013 FOORD ASSET MANAGEMENT 21

Source: I-NET

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CONSUMPTION GROWTH Driven by real wage increases

MARCH 2013 FOORD ASSET MANAGEMENT 22

Source: RMB Global Markets Research

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DETERIORATING C/A DEFICIT

MARCH 2013 FOORD ASSET MANAGEMENT 23

Source: I-NET

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FURTHER RAND DEPRECIATION LIKELY with sporadic rallies due to foreign asset inflows

MARCH 2013 FOORD ASSET MANAGEMENT 24

Source: I-NET

Page 25: “Beyond the fiscal cliff” – Foord asset management

EQUITIES REMAIN THE ASSET CLASS OF CHOICE Especially over the Long term

MARCH 2013 FOORD ASSET MANAGEMENT 25

Page 26: “Beyond the fiscal cliff” – Foord asset management

STRATEGY

26 MARCH 2013 FOORD ASSET MANAGEMENT

• Equity markets remain attractively priced

– Short term risks

– Time is required to realise potential returns

• Quality companies preferred

– Strong balance sheets, management teams, dividends

• Bond yields should rise significantly, but timing uncertain

– Negative real returns the most likely outcome

Page 27: “Beyond the fiscal cliff” – Foord asset management

Questions

Foord Asset Management (Pty) Ltd and Foord Unit Trusts Ltd are authorised

Financial Services Providers (FSP: 578 & 21476)

Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future performance

Page 28: “Beyond the fiscal cliff” – Foord asset management

INVESTMENT TEAM

MARCH 2013 28 FOORD ASSET MANAGEMENT

Main Responsibilities & Qualifications Experience At Foord Responsibility

Dave Foord CIO, Portfolio Manager

B Com, CA(SA) 35 31

Strategy, Balanced, Absolute return, Equity, Foreign, Company Research

Brian Davey Portfolio Manager, Analyst

B Com, CA(SA) 21 17 Equity, Company research, Private clients

Dane Schrauwen Portfolio Manager, Equities

BA LLB 20 4 Equity, Balanced, Company research, Private clients

Mike Townshend Head: Company Research

B Sc (Hons), BA, MBA 15 7 Company research, sector research

William Fraser Portfolio Manager, Strategy

B Com Actuarial, Cert (Financial Engineering) 13 7 Strategy, Balanced, Bonds, Property, Medical Aid

Mike Soekoe Head of Retail & Institutional Business

Member of SA Institute of Stockbrokers, CFP ® 32 4 Private clients

Nicholas Balkin Portfolio Manager, Research Analyst

B Com (Hons) Finance, CFA 10 7

Equity, Absolute return, Company research, Private clients

Vincent Ee Portfolio Manager, Head: International Research

B Sc (Hons) Acct & Finance, CFA 16 - Company research (Foreign)

Carolyn Levin Portfolio Manager, Research Analyst

B Bus Sc (Hons), CA(SA), CFA 7 5 Company research (SA and Foreign)

Andrew Coultas Equity Research Analyst

B Com (Hons), M Com, CA(SA) 4 2 Company research (Foreign)

Guy Shirtliff Equity Research Analyst

B Bus Sc (Hons), Cert (Financial Mkts & Instr) 6 1 Company research (Foreign)

Pravarshan Murugasen

Equity Research Analyst

CA(SA) 2 1 Company research (SA)

Daniel Gerdis Equity Research Analyst

CA(SA) 2 1 Company research (SA)

Wim Murray Equity Research Analyst

BA LLB 1 - Company research (SA)

Page 29: “Beyond the fiscal cliff” – Foord asset management

FOORD BALANCED FUND Current Top 10 equity positions

% of portfolio

BHP Billiton 4.9

SABMiller 3.3

Aspen 3.3

Sasol 3.1

British American Tobacco 2.9

Standard Bank 2.9

CF Richemont 2.8

Anglos 2.8

Bidvest 2.4

RMB Holdings 2.3

30.7

MARCH 2013 FOORD ASSET MANAGEMENT 29

Page 30: “Beyond the fiscal cliff” – Foord asset management

FEBRUARY 2013 FOORD ASSET MANAGEMENT 30

FOORD EQUITY FUND Top 10 equity positions

% of portfolio

BHP Billiton 8.3

Sasol 6.0

SABMiller 5.9

Anglos 5.2

CF Richemont 5.1

Standard Bank 4.9

British American Tobacco 4.6

Bidvest 4.6

Aspen 4.4

Coronation 3.9

52.9