beyond zero emissions - zero carbon australia stationery energy plan

7/27/2019 Beyond Zero Emissions - Zero Carbon Australia Stationery Energy Plan

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BZE welcomesDoctors for the

EnvironmentThursday 19 September

Murali Nathan & Chitrani Perez


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Intro Slide

A plan to repower Australia with

100% renewable energy in 10 years

Zero Carbon Australia

Stationary Energy Plan


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Climate change is a problem of unprecedented scale andconsequence

Use of fossil fuels is the biggest cause of the problem

The ZCA Stationary Energy Plan provides easy solutions to theproblem of increasing need for energy from a growing populationwhile eliminating GHG emissions


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The difference between

2 & 4

is human civilisation

Business As Usual Global

Temperature Increase

2Guardrail Limit


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What kind of future do we need to prepare for ?

bze.org.au

A business as usual policy could see a 4 degree rise intemperatures by 2060.

On the hottest days, the temperatures could be :

6-8 degrees higher than the mean in China 8-10 degrees in Europe and 10-12 degrees in New York

Such unprecedented increases would give rise to a host ofissues about how the ageing infrastructure of our cities coulddeliver even survival-level services.

By 2100 the planet would become unliveable in most places.


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...if Australia builds up its coal exports

as currently planned, it would produce

30% of the carbon needed to pushglobal warming beyond two degrees.

By 2020 the countrys coal burnt

abroad will be producing three times asmuch CO2 as all the countrys cars

and factories and homes; by 2025, four

times. And so on.

Bill McKibben Do the math 2013


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Per Capita Global Carbon Budget 2010-2050

2/3 of a chance of keeping global warming < 2oC

Maximum CO2 next 40 years: 750 billion tonnes

= allocation of 85 tonnes for each person in the world

between 2010 and 2050

Australia emits >20 tonnes CO2 per Australian resident perannum

Business as usual: By 2050: >800 tonnes per person.

I.E. Our 85 tonnes share p.p. emitted in 4 years.

MUST reduce emissions to ZERO in 10 years so not to exceed

our share.

Source: Derived from paper by Prof HJ Schellnhuber, Director,

Potsdam Institute for Climate Science, Potsdam, Germany


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Per Capita Global Carbon Budget 2010-2050

R

ateofemissions

bynation

(tonnesofCO2

perca

pitaperyear)

USA

Germany

China

India

Burkina Faso

Quota: Global absolutemaximum of 85 tonnes per

person before 2050


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Head of the Inter governmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC in 2008, European Union and otherbodies talked about a 350 ppm atmospheric carbon as a desirable target to aim for.

In 2013 the levels breached 400ppm

More carbon in the atmosphere creates a negative feedback loop

A vast expanse of permafrost in Siberia and Alaska has started to thaw for the first time since it formed11,000 years ago, marked in dark blue on the map. It is caused by the recent warming in localtemperature. Peat bogs cover an area of a million square miles (or almost a quarter of the earth's landsurface) to a depth of 25 meters. Started to melt in the last 4 years with the potential to release vastquantities of methane trapped by ice below the surface - billions of tonnes of methane. World-wide, peatbogs store at least two trillion tons of CO2. This is equivalent to a century of emissions from fossil fuels.

This is one of the most feared tipping points

http://www.planetextinction.com


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Intro Slide

A plan to repower Australia with

100% renewable energy in 10 years

Zero Carbon Australia

Stationary Energy Plan


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Stationary Energy

Stationary energy is the supply of electricityto fixed outlet points; it is what we plug our

appliances into and run our industry from.

The ZCA Stationary Energy Plan is a detailed,

fully costed, resourced model to repower

Australia with 100% renewable energy in 10years


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Zero Carbon Australia Plan (ZCA) -

Guiding Principles Blueprint for a Zero Carbon Australia in 10years

Fully accept latest climate science evidence Specifies only Commercial-Off-The-Shelf

technology

Maintain or enhance Australias: Energy Supply security and reliability

Food and water security

Standard of living


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Traditional Power Generation


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Concentrated Solar

Thermal with

Storage CENTRALRECEIVER

(TOWER)

290oC

565oC

565oC


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Heliostat Field

Torresol Gemasolar

in full operation

Heliostat


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Thermal

Storage

Hot & Cold Tanks

exterior view

Interior of

tank under

construction

Solid

salt


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Spain 2011

Torresol Gemasolar

20MW. 15h storage

Only the beginning


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Brightsource and Abengoa are currently working on a 500 megawatts concentrated solar project in California thatwould be composed of twin 250-megawatt units with what should be the tallest solar towers in the world

Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is a major exporter of oil and gas. Abu Dhabi is also a leader inrenewables. Their Shams Power Company in early 2013 started operating the 100MW Shams 1 concentrated

solar power (CSP) station


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World Solar Thermal growth

Globally 17.54GW built or under development

USA 8.67GW

Spain 4.46GW

China 2.5GW


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World Wind Power growth

Global investment increased 30% p.a. in last decade

China target 150 GW wind by 2020: (nearly 68 GW by

June 2012)

Denmark 50% wind by 2025 (Already 22% in 2011) Sweden 4,000 MW 1100 Enercon Turbines

Gl b l Wi d P th


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Global Wind Power growth

China 75,000 MW (2012) Target: 150,000 MW by 2020

U.S. 60,000 MW ~ 28% annual growth

Germany 31,000 MW ~ 7.5% annual growth

Spain 23,000 MW ~

Canada 6,200 MW ~ 25% annual growth

Portugal 4,500 MW ~ 13% annual growth

World-wide 282,000 MW (2012) - tripled since 2007


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In July 2013 the world's biggest offshore wind farm opened in the UK (175 turbines, 630MW)

The UK targets 16GW of offshore wind power by 2020, a huge increase from the 3.3GW of

installed capacity that they have now

- London Array


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"GWEC Global Wind Statistics 2011" Global Wind Energy Commission. Retrieved 15 March 2012.


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100% Renewable Energy for

Australia - three main components

Concentrated solar

thermal power

Wind powerUpgraded

electricity grid


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Module

220MWSunlab 220

X 17 = 1 Solar region

3500MW capacity

12 = 60% of Australias

Stationary Energy

delivered by Solar Thermal

with storage

Concentrated solar thermal power


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Module

7.5MW

Enercon

E-126

Turbine

330 = 1 Wind region

2500MW capacity

23 = 40% of Australias

Stationary Energy delivered by

Wind

Wind power


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100% Renewable Stationary Energy

~60%

Concentrated SolarThermal with storage

~40%Large scale

wind farms

~2% Backup withbio-mass and hydro

Existing grid


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Australia's renewable energy grid: 2020Australias Renewable Energy Grid 2020Solar RegionWind region

New HVDC line

New HVAC line

Existing grid


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Australia Best Solar Resource in the World


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30 year Cost to Economy all energy

BUSINESS AS USUAL ZCAZCA


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What about the jobs

lost in the mining and

oil industries?


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Labour Requirements


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507,000

tonnesCO2 saved

30 years


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How much will it cost?Can we afford it?


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Solar Thermal Cost Reduction


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Safe Climate: 3% of GDP for 10 years


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ZCA per year and Australias GDP

ZCA

AUS GDP (2009)

1200 ZCA $37Bn for 10 years

Australian Gambling 2009 $20Bn

Australian Insurance 2009 $38Bn


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30 year Cost to Economy all energy

BUSINESS AS USUAL ZCAZCA


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Why Coal Seam Gas is not a great idea

1.Methane is atleast 20 times more damaging than carbon di-oxide.

2.Leakages from extraction, processing, transport and delivery to point of use can be as much as 12%

3.Extraction involves potentially hazardous methods such as fracking

Fracking is the process of pumping water, sand and a cocktail of different chemicals, underground at huge

pressure in order to fracture open the coal seam and allow the gas to escape.

Fracking uses massive amounts of water a scarce resource in Australia. 11 million litres per well.Queensland alone has issued licences for 40,000 wells. Nationwide nearly a 100,000 wells could be in

operation by 2020.

CSG extraction damages prime agricultural land beyond repair

Fracking creates micro-seismic events (mini earthquakes), which cause the connection of naturallyseparated geological layers. This process can contaminate ground water with hazardous chemicals.

Australia does not require companies to list the chemicals they use in fracking fluids. However, experience in

the USA, Queensland and NSW shows the use of known carcinogens as well as other chemicals including:ethylene glycol, which affects kidney function, the lungs and heart; the BTEX group (Benzene, Toluene,Ethyl Benzene and Xylene), which affect bone marrow, the blood system and cause leukaemia; and othertoxins that affect hormone regulation and the reproductive system-http://quitcoal.org.au/fracking-in-victoria/


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Zero Carbon Australia - Conclusion

Will secure our climate and future

Technically doable

Uses commercially available technologies

Fully Resourced

We have the materials

Jobs rich

Fully Costed

3% of GDP for 10 years & 60% saving

over BAU in 30 years


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