Post-Marcos Elections andThe Changing Mentality Behind

The Bicol Vote

Jay A. CarizoInstitute for Popular Democracy

Outline

Describing The Bicol Vote Distribution and Turnout

Opposition vote

Vote for Bicolano Candidates

Block Vote

Factors Affecting the Bicol Vote

Retrospective and Prospective Vote

Provinces: 6Cities : 7Municipalities: 107Population : 5.1 MRegistered Voters: 2.8 M

The Bicol Vote

Total of 2.8 M voters

Dominated by voters of Albay and Camarines Sur

ALBAY24%

CAM. NORTE9%

CAM. SUR32%

CATANDUANES5%

MASBATE16%

SORSOGON14%

Bicolano Voters by Province, 2009

The Bicol Vote

Nat'l Turnout: 74.82%

Reg'l Turnout: 79.58%

Highest Turnout: Albay – 81.29%

Lowest Turnout: Masbate –72.26%

The Bicol Vote

Bicol as an Opposition Vote Historical Development: From

American to Martial Law periods

Opposition vote in presidential elections

Salonga in 1992 Roco in 1998 Roco in 2004

The Bicol Vote

Presidential vote: Distinct from senatorial, congressional and gubernatorial votes

1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007

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Incidence of Elected Administraton Candidates in Bicol, 1992-2007

Congressional

Gubernatorial

Senatorial

The Bicol Vote

As Vote for Bicolano Candidates Does not translate in Senatorial

Elections

The cases of Madrigal (2001) and Escudero (2004)

Datu Arroyo and the 2007 Congressional Elections

The Bicol Vote

As a Voting Block Elements:

Group of Voters Motivation – concern or specific

concerns Voters deliver as a group

Present Indicators in the Bicol Vote Support for opposition candidate in

presidential elections Relative support for Bicolano

senatorial candidates

The Bicol Vote

– Provincial level analysis, however, provides space for questions

• Only Albay and Camarines Sur delivered for Roco and Salonga

• Only Albay and Sorsogon delivered for Escudero

Factors

• The Left and the Civil Society Organizations

– Ideological influences

– Voters education, advocacies on governance, etc.

• Clans and Political Machines

– Election of administration candidates during midterm elections

Factors

1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007

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Figure 8.Regional Poverty and Election Turnout,

1992-2007

Regional Turnout

Poverty Incidence

• Socio-economic developments

– Rise of the middle class

– Access to education and various information sources

– Poverty incidence

Factors

• Other Factors

– Platform

– Financial Assistance

– Requests of Family Member, Brgy Officials

– Personally meeting the candidate

Vote mentality

• Retrospective

– 1992 (and earlier) to 2001 and 2004

– Default choice: Opposition candidates

– Reward/Punishment Voting

• Behavior of Politicians – Cox and McCubbins Model

• Voter Response: Election of Admin Candidates in midterm elections; opposition president in presidential elections

1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007

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Poverty Incidence and Administration Candidates Elected, 1992-2007

Poverty Incidence

Congressmen

Governors

Vote Mentality

• Prospective: The “turugbong na tubo mentality”

– Historical basis of “turugbong na tubo” mentality

– The shift from 2001 to 2007

• The election of 5 of 6 governors in 2004 who supported Arroyo

• The election of Datu Arroyo in 2007

The idea of turugbong na tubo is contrary to the concept of sovereignty of the

people as the people are being punished by being denied what are their due as a

consequence of the exercise of the universal right of suffrage.

– Luis General, Jr.

Thank You...