bieke abelshausen, ferdiana hoti, catrinel turcanu, tanja perko ... · this project has received...

This project has received funding from the Euratom research and training programme 2014-2018 under grant agreement No 662287.

Public concernsBieke Abelshausen, Ferdiana Hoti, Catrinel Turcanu,

Tanja Perko

[email protected]

[email protected]


Results of systematic literature review on definitions and types

of uncertainties

Ferdiana Hoti, SCK•CEN, Belgium

Tanja Perko, SCK•CEN, Belgium

Peter Thijssen, University of Antwerp, Belgium

Ortwin Renn, University of Stuttgart, Germany

Oxford, UK, 19.03.19


Introduction and research question

Research question: Which are the existing definitions and typologies of uncertainty in literature?

Task 3.1. Uncertainty management in decision-making process in long lasting radiological exposure situations


Methodology: Systematic literature review in different fields of study


Preliminary results: Uncertainty definitions

Table 1. Uncertainty definitions made by authors in the literature review


Uncertainty definition based on sources and types

Epistemic

Uncertainty

Aleatory

Uncertainty

Authors

Doyle, McClure et al. 2014

Thompson 2002

Eiser, Bostrom et al. 2012

Harris 2015

Knoblauch, Stauffacher et al. 2018

Walker, Harremoes et al. 2003

Romao and Pauperio 2016

Levin, Hansson et al. 2004

Markon, Crowe et al. 2013



Epistemic

Uncertainty

Aleatory

Uncertainty

Informal

Uncertainty

Authors Reference made

to

Maxim (2014) Möller and Beer

(2004, p. 953)



Epistemic

Uncertainty

Aleatory

Uncertainty

Informal

Uncertainty

Stochastic

uncertainty

Variability

Authors

Walker, Harremoes et al. 2003

Bier and Lin 2013

Thompson 2002



Epistemic

Uncertainty

Aleatory

Uncertainty

Informal

Uncertainty

Stochastic

uncertainty

Variability

Internal

UncertaintyExternal

Uncertainty

Author Reference made to

Dequech 2004 Kahneman and Tversky 1982, p. 150



Epistemic

Uncertainty

Aleatory

Uncertainty

Informal

Uncertainty

Stochastic

uncertainty

Variability

Internal

UncertaintyExternal

Uncertainty

Assessment

Uncertainty

Outcome

Uncertainty

Authors

Bier and Lin 2013



Epistemic

Uncertainty

Aleatory

Uncertainty

Informal

Uncertainty

Stochastic

uncertainty

Variability

Internal

UncertaintyExternal

Uncertainty

Assessment

Uncertainty

Outcome

Uncertainty

Ambiguity

Authors

Walker, Kwakkel et al. 2010

Markon, Crowe et al. 2013

Levin, Hansson et al. 2004

Kox, Gerhold et al. 2015

Kox, Gerhold et al. 2015



Epistemic

Uncertainty

Aleatory

Uncertainty

Informal

Uncertainty

Stochastic

uncertainty

Variability

Internal

UncertaintyExternal

Uncertainty

Assessment

Uncertainty

Outcome

Uncertainty

Ambiguity

Contentual

Uncertainty

Linguistic

Uncertainty

Decision

Uncertainty


Territories definition of uncertainty

• The word uncertainty refers to any situation for which a fact, data or phenomenon and their causes or consequences are not known with certainty by a specific actor in her/his decision context.

• This context, that corresponds to the state of the world that has been changed by the situation (NORM or post-accident contamination), is embracing many aspects: social, economic, environmental, health, etc (Guillevic et al, D 9.65 –Decision processes/pathways TERRITORIES: Synthesis report of CONCERT sub-subtask 9.3.3.1)


Uncertainties present on different stakeholder categories

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Public Decision-makers Scientists and experts

Stakeholder categories

Nu

mb

er

of

refe

ren

ces

in

th

e a

rtic

les


Public Uncertainties


Content

1. Document review: Background for Decision processes related to NORM pollution and

remediation in Tessenderlo

2. Mass media reporting: Uncertainties and their causes in NORM pollution in

Tessenderlo in last 15 years

3. Interviews with the affected population in Tessenderlo

4: Expert’s view on the Tessenderlo case (panel discussions and survey)


Document review: Background for decision processes related to NORM

pollution and remediation in Tessenderlo

Decision processes/pathways


Uncertainties or causes of uncertainties important for the Tessenderlo case found in documents

e.g. National policy and the legal and regulatory framework related to long-term exposure situations due to NORM:

• A lack of, or incomplete or ineffective, national policy;

• A lack of a legal and regulatory framework;

• Non-independence or ineffectiveness of the regulatory authority;

• A lack or incompleteness of environmental remediation regulations and standards or guidelines.

e.g. Historical knowledge

• Location of unknown or poorly defined sources of contamination and radiation;

• Unknown physical condition of structures and systems including waste amount;

• Unknown exposure to dangerous amounts of radioactivity;

• Exposure to mixed contaminations.

• Risk and remediation prioritizations.

• Different problem framing/vocabulary and understanding of radiological risks


Document review demonstrates that

• Uncertainties related to NORM arise mostly as a result of the socio-political and economic factors rather than technical factors;

• On the one hand that uncertainties often originate due to different perceptions, attitudes, opinions, concerns and expectations of stakeholders towards the risks and benefits of remediation projects and due to the lack of stakeholder involvement in planning and implementation of remediation projects;

• On the other hand, EU countries have ensured a legal background, e.g. Basic Safety Standards, that is or has to be implemented at the level of national policies, in order to avoid additional uncertainties due to NORM exposure situations including Belgium and in the Tessenderlo case.


Media analysis145 articles in 15y


Some examplesfrom media

• “Everything was said to be fine and then one day, all of a sudden people were sent a letter saying that the ground is contaminated.”

• “It is said to be no problem to walk nearby the river, yet radioactivity has been measured at that place.”

• “There is said to be no real danger, although people shouldn’t live in the areas.”

• “The contamination problem is said to be a surprise, although it is not surprisingly since it is a historical pollution.”

• “The company says that the salt losses are like seawater, yet political parties (Agalev) state the opposite.”

• “The company says that there is no problem, yet effects have already been detected in fish and vegetation.”


Media reported about uncertainties and courses of uncertainties related to:

The most often reported:

• Public and environmental health

• Remediation management

• Ambiguity about the problem

• Financial matters

• Contradiction in messages

Contradiction in opinions

Responsibility for the problem

Financial matters

Duration of the remediation

Waste management

Contradiction in the communicated

messages

Communication problems

Remediation management

Lack of trust in authorities

Ambiguity about the problem

Public and environmental health

Concerns for future

Reputation of the polluter Media attention changes through years!


e.g. Uncertainties and/or causes related to

Public and environmental health issues:

• Fear for a decrease in the quality of both public and environmental health.

• People worry about getting cancer.

• Is it safe to live close to the factory facilities?

• What are risks for children and pregnant women?

• Will the remediation project influence the surroundings in their neighborhood (e.g. green areas)

• Does pollution enter a food chain (e.g. milk from a cow eating a grass, ground water)

• Will the ecosystem be protected?

• Will the project have an impact on social and cultural life?


Interviews with people


Societal Uncertainties - Lay

• Three categories for uncertainties• Behaviour

• Health

• Air pollution

• Historical pollution

• Other

• Knowledge • Pollution

• Type

• Impact

• Norm

• Remediation

• Location

• Timing

• Impact

NORM

Behaviour

Leisure

Health

Air pollution

Historical pollution

OtherFinancial

Knowledge

Pollution

Type

Impact

NORM Unknown

Remediation

Location

Timing

Impact



• Time

• Pollution (noticeable)

• Type and intensity

• Fight

• Economic dependency

• Open

• Closed

• Altruistic

• Resolve

• Trust

• Resign

• Society

• Pragmatism

• Powerlessness

• Knowledge

• Causes

TimeNoticeability of

pollution

Type and intensity of concerns

FightEconomic

dependency

Open

Closed

AltruisticResolve Lack of trust

Resign

Society

Pragmatism

Powerlessness

Knowledge

Causes



• Time

• Pollution (unnoticeable)

• Intensity of concerns

• Trust

• Institution

• Distrust

• Knowledge

TimeLack of noticeability

of pollutionIntensity of

concerns

Trust

Change

Intuition

Distrust Knowledge


Societal Uncertainties - Experts

• Uncertainties of experts• Mainly technical

• E.g. Move from several storage locations to one

• E.g. Swamp area (difficulties for drilling)

• Societal • Inclusion of stakeholder makes different needs and aspirations more

obvious

• Societal uncertainties as perceived by experts• Difference between technical options and expectation from

societies• Advise for after remediation (f.e. use of groundwater)

• Unfulfilled expectations

All stakeholders that should be involved were involved


Conclusion

• In-depth analysis shows that affected population, remediation experts and mass media are concerned about different issues and therefore express or are confronted with different uncertainties.

• Framing of the problem:

• mass media - “radiological contamination”,

• experts - “mixed contamination” (chemical and radiological),

• people living in an affected region - “pollution”.

• Differences in media analysis and interviews

• Media: political and financial focus

• Local population: health and environment focus

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