big city density and sun belt sprawl
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Big City Density and Sun Belt Sprawl. America’s Major Metropolitan Areas in the 2000s. Agenda. Recapping A Decade in a Few Minutes Metro Areas, the Census and American Community Survey Population Changes in the 2000s Differences on Transportation Income Poverty. During the 2000s…. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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America’s Major Metropolitan Areas in the 2000s
Big City Density and Sun Belt Sprawl
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AgendaRecapping A Decade in a Few Minutes
Metro Areas, the Census and American Community Survey
Population Changes in the 2000s
Differences onTransportationIncome Poverty
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During the 2000s… America grew in several ways*
Suburbs 12% population growth
Central cities7% population growthSome see an economic revitalization in areas beyond “Downtown”
More than twice as many people live in suburbs vs. central cities
*Sources: Brookings Institute, State of Metropolitan America Map , New York Times, Mapping America: Every City, Every Block and SustainableCitiesCollective (blog), “New Census numbers confirm the resurgence of cities”, December 15, 2010,
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During the 2000s…Mid-decade economic boom driven by real estate…
which busts in 2007-2008Properties de-value, foreclosures rise
Greatest impact felt inSeveral of the fastest growing metro areas “Exurbs” – areas relatively far from central cities“Drive ‘til You Qualify”
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Escalating Gas Prices
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During the 2000s…Budgets are squeezed
Gas prices drive up transportation costs (among other things)Declining property values and ballooning mortgage interest
rates
Poverty rate grows faster in suburbs than in central cities*
Real wages fall more among suburban households*
*Source: Brookings Institute, State of Metropolitan America Map
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Major Cities Are Dense, Sun Belt Less So
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High Growth Rate in Sun Belt
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Metro Area Trends
Differences between higher density metros of America’s major cities and lower density, high growth metros in the Sun BeltTransportation
Primary commuting alternatives to driving alone Income levelsPoverty rates
County-level trends within these two sets
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54 Metro Areas with 1 Million People or Greater*Metro Areas
Atlanta Cleveland-Akron Indianapolis Minneapolis-St. Paul Pittsburgh San Antonio
Austin Columbus Jacksonville Nashville Portland, OR San Diego
Baltimore (Part of Washington, DC - 1999
MSA)Dallas-Fort Worth Kansas City New Orleans Providence
San Francisco-Oakland (1999 MSA includes
San Jose)
Birmingham Denver-Boulder Las Vegas New York City Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill
San Jose (Part of San Francisco-Oakland -
1999 MSA)
Boston-Worcester Detroit-Ann Arbor-FlintLos Angeles (1999 MSA includes Riverside-San
Bernardino)
Norfolk-Virginia Beach Richmond Seattle-Tacoma
Buffalo Grand Rapids-Muskegon Louisville Oklahoma CityRiverside-San
Bernardino (Part of Los Angeles - 1999 MSA)
St. Louis
Charlotte Greensboro-High Point-Winston Salem Memphis Orlando Rochester, NY Tampa-St. Petersburg
Chicago Hartford
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach (West
Palm Beach separate MSA in 1999)
Philadelphia Sacramento Tucson
Cincinnati Houston Milwaukee Phoenix Salt Lake CityWashington, DC (1999
MSA includes Baltimore)
*2000 Census based on 1999 MSA definitions, or 2007-2009 American Community Survey based on 2003 CBSA definitions
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Change in Metro Area DefinitionFederal Office of Management and Budget (OMB) defines
Metro Areas Revised in 2003*
Previously – Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) Commuting relationship between central city and surrounding counties
New – Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA) Examine commuting patterns between counties Urban core – ‘central city’ or several communities # of metropolitan areas grew from 280 to 362
Suburbs of large MSAs split offAreas are smaller, but likely more densePop density figures in 2012 when metro area data for 2010 Census is
released
*Source - Office of Management and Budget, Standards for Defining Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Areas; Notice, Federal Register, Vol. 65, No. 249, 12/27/00
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1999 (MSA) and 2003 (CBSA) Metro Areas
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2000 Census and 2007-2009 ACS 2000 Census
Entire population 1/6 of households –survey on housing and economic status
(discontinued for 2010 in favor of ACS)Metro Area statistics
CBSA – population count MSA – population density and characteristics
American Community Survey (ACS) Surveys 2 million households each year, official since 2005
Similar to longer-form 2000 census survey3-year average reduces margin of error
Info on geographic areas with pop. of 20K or greater (annual info for areas with pop. of 65K or greater)
Limitation - economic and social change during time periodCBSA - all metro area data
Overcame differences with 2000 Census by looking at county-level data
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Population Changes In the 2000s
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High Growth Rate in Sun Belt
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Strong Growth – Suburbs of Sun Belt Metros
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Strong Growth – Suburbs of Sun Belt Metros…
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…Which Are Low Density In 2000, Indicating Sprawl
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Differences between Higher and Lower Density Metros
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Rail Offers Transportation Alternative in Major Cities
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Less Public Transit Use in Sun Belt…
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…So Carpooling is More Prevalent
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Denser Major Cities Are Among Highest HH Incomes
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Sun Belt Tends To Have Lower Per-Capita Income
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Higher Poverty Rates Common In Sun Belt
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Poverty Strong In Sun Belt Cities and Suburbs
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Incomes Also Lower In Sun Belt Suburbs
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Suburban Poverty Grows At A Faster Rate
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Suburban Poverty Grows At A Faster Rate
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In SummaryDenser metro areas of our major cities may have slower growth rates,
butHigher incomesLower poverty ratesExtensive rail networks help lessen auto-dependency
Sun Belt – High growth, lower densitySprawlingAuto-dependent Lower incomesGrowing suburban povertyAs transportation costs increase, could residents find themselves isolated
from jobs?Some regions taking action
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Sun Belt Regions Adding Transit
Metro AreaLight Rail (lower
capacity and speed)*
Heavy Rail (heavy volume, high speeds, i.e.
Subway)*
Commuter Rail (between central city and outlying
suburbs)*
Austin1 line opened in
2010
Dallas-Fort Worth
4 lines, 2 undergoing expansion
1 line between Dallas and Fort-
Worth
Houston
1 line partially opened in 2004,
5-line system under
construction
Nashville1 line opened in
2006
Phoenix1 line opened in
2009
Sprawling development patterns limits reach of these systems
*Source: Federal Transit Administration, National Transit Database, Glossary; Websites of transportation agencies in above-mentioned cities and regions
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Fed Policy Initiatives
HUD, DOT and EPA Partnership for Sustainable Communities1
Grants to 45 regions in December, 2010, including agencies in Austin, Greensboro and Houston
Development of joint sustainability, affordable housing and transit plans
1Partnership for Sustainable Communities Website, www.sustainablecommunities.gov
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Thank You!