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Big Data at BBVA Research Big Data Workshop University of Navarra Tomasa Rodrigo BBVA Research MARCH 2017

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  • Big Data at

    BBVA Research Big Data Workshop

    University of Navarra

    Tomasa Rodrigo

    BBVA Research

    MARCH 2017

  • 2

    INDEX

    Outline

    Big data and education: challenges and opportunities

    Big Data analysis at BBVA Research

    Digital revolution and the new business

    environment

  • 3

    Index

    Outline

    Big data and education: challenges and opportunities

    Big Data analysis at BBVA Research

    Digital revolution and the new business

    environment

  • Geopolitics

    Analysis

    Economic

    Analysis

    OUR

    STREAM

    OF ANALYSIS

    &

    BIG DATA

    4

  • Geopolitics Analysis

    Tracking Geopolitics on real time is useful to center

    conflict zones & potential spillovers… BBVA World Conflict Index Heatmap in 2017 (Number of conflict / Total events)

    Source: www.gdelt.org & BBVA Research 5

    http://www.gdelt.org/E032202logo geo

  • Geopolitics Analysis

    We also monitor Conflict & Social unrest from an

    historical perspective... BBVA Research World Protest Intensity Index

    1980-2017 (Number of protests in the world / Total events in the world)

    BBVA Research World Conflict Intensity Index

    1980-2017 (Number of conflicts in the world / Total events in the world)

    Source: www.gdelt.org & BBVA Research Source: www.gdelt.org & BBVA Research

    0.006

    0.008

    0.01

    0.012

    0.014

    0.016

    1981

    1983

    1985

    1987

    1989

    1991

    1993

    1995

    1997

    1999

    2001

    2003

    2005

    2007

    2009

    2011

    2013

    2015

    2017

    High

    Medium Range

    Low

    0.026

    0.036

    0.046

    0.056

    0.066

    0.076

    0.086

    1981

    1983

    1985

    1987

    1989

    1991

    1993

    1995

    1997

    1999

    2001

    2003

    2005

    2007

    2009

    2011

    2013

    2015

    2017

    High

    Low

    Medium Range

    6

    http://www.gdelt.org/http://www.gdelt.org/

  • Social and Geopolitical Analysis

    … as well as the evolution over time in each country,

    identifying hot spots and contagion effects BBVA Research World Protest Intensity Map Jan 2008– Mar 2017 (Number of protests/ Total events)

    Protest Intensity: Low High

    USA

    UK

    Norway

    Sweden

    Austria

    Germany

    France

    Netherlands

    Italy

    Spain

    Belgium

    Ireland

    Portugal

    Greece

    Morocco

    Algeria

    Tunisia

    Libya

    Egypt

    Israel

    Jordan

    Syria

    Iraq

    Iran

    UAE

    Yemen

    Bahrain

    Qatar

    Oman

    Saudi Arabia

    N.

    Afr

    ica &

    Mid

    dle

    East

    Develo

    ped

    Mark

    ets

    2008 2011 2012 20132009 2010 2014 2015 2016 *

    7 Source: www.gdelt.org & BBVA Research

    http://www.gdelt.org/

  • -3

    -2

    -1

    0

    1

    2

    3

    Ma

    r-1

    5

    Apr-

    15

    Ma

    y-1

    5

    Jun-1

    5

    Jul-1

    5

    Aug-1

    5

    Sep-1

    5

    Oct-

    15

    No

    v-1

    5

    De

    c-1

    5

    Jan-1

    6

    Feb

    -16

    Ma

    r-1

    6

    Apr-

    16

    Ma

    y-1

    6

    Jun-1

    6

    Jul-1

    6

    Aug-1

    6

    Sep-1

    6

    Oct-

    16

    No

    v-1

    6

    De

    c-1

    6

    Jan-1

    7

    Feb

    -17

    Ma

    r-1

    7

    PMI edges up on stimulus measures

    PPI turns positive

    1st series of stock

    market crashes

    "Black Monday"

    2nd stock market

    crash,

    trade halted for 3

    days

    PMI falls

    to 4-Y

    low

    RMB enters IMF's

    SDR basket

    NPC meeting

    De

    terio

    ratin

    g S

    entim

    ent

    (Hig

    he

    r V

    uln

    era

    bil

    ity)

    Imp

    rovin

    g S

    entim

    ent

    (Lo

    we

    r V

    uln

    era

    bil

    ity)

    3% Devaluation

    Economic world

    conference

    Neutral Area +- 0.5 std

    Positive

    Negative

    China Macroeconomic Sentiment Index (Additive principal component based Indicator using thematic subsets of information terms, 42 items)

    8

    Economic Analysis

    Big Data allows us to track Macroeconomic

    Sentiment…

    Source: www.gdelt.org & BBVA Research

    http://www.gdelt.org/

  • Oman

    Qatar

    Iran

    Kazakhstan

    Russia

    U.A.E.

    Iraq

    NicaraguaSaudi ArabiaMexico

    Chile

    Dominican R.Brazil

    Bolivia

    Ecuador

    Venezuela

    Peru

    Panama

    Argentina

    Spain

    Austria

    Ukraine

    Israel

    Greece

    Poland

    Belgium

    Czech Republic

    ItalyNetherlands

    Finland

    Ireland

    Iceland

    Portugal

    Hungary

    Yemen

    Sri Lanka

    Macau

    Indonesia

    Philippines

    Taiwan

    Cambodia

    Pakistan

    Turkey

    Brunei

    N. Zealand

    Burkina Faso

    Singapore

    Thailand

    Malaysia

    Zimbabwe

    UgandaNigeria

    Zambia

    CongoMozambique

    Kenya

    Sweden

    Angola

    E. Guinea

    EthiopiaSouth Africa

    France

    US

    UK

    Japan

    Australia

    Canada

    S. Korea India

    Switzerland

    Germany

    Hong Kong

    China

    Economic Analysis

    …as well as economic events with important world

    economic and geostrategic effects…

    Conversation on Oil demand

    Activity Impact in EM Asia

    Impact on commodity Exporters from Africa

    Impact on commodity Exporters from Latam

    Activity Impact in Europe

    Financial & Trade lines impaired (Main trade partners)

    Very High Very Low

    China slowdown: concerns and contagion globally may be monitored in 2H 2015

    Source: www.gdelt.org & BBVA Research 9

    http://www.gdelt.org/

  • A “High Definition” Activity Indicator for Spain (and Mexico) (BBVA consumption indicator for the optimal allocation of BBVA’s resources and products)

    What “HIGH DEFINITION(*)” means here:

    Economic Analysis

    We also replicate national figures, gaining frequency…

    High granularity: Dynamics down to subnational level

    Ultra High Frequency: Dynamics up to sub-monthly

    frequency

    Multi Dimensional: More detailed socioeconomic features

    ICM–BBVA Index, in millions of euros and daily basis Comparison Retail Sales-INE and BBVA on monthly basis

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    Jan-1

    3

    Apr-

    13

    Jul-1

    3

    Oct-

    13

    Jan-1

    4

    Apr-

    14

    Jul-1

    4

    Oct-

    14

    Jan-1

    5

    Apr-

    15

    Jul-1

    5

    Oct-

    15

    Jan-1

    6

    Apr-

    16

    Jul-1

    6

    -0.3

    -0.2

    -0.1

    0.0

    0.1

    0.2

    0.3

    0.4

    Jan-1

    3

    Apr-

    13

    Jul-1

    3

    Oct-

    13

    Jan-1

    4

    Apr-

    14

    Jul-1

    4

    Oct-

    14

    Jan-1

    5

    Apr-

    15

    Jul-1

    5

    Oct-

    15

    Jan-1

    6

    Apr-

    16

    Jul-1

    6

    BBVA transactions Retail sales

    10 Source: BBVA Research and BBVA Data & Analytics

  • Source: BBVA Research and BBVA Data & Analytics

    BBVA transactions 1S15 vs 1S16 (% yoy)

    País Vasco

    Economic Analysis

    … and granularity, going to regional level

    Interannual transaction growth (%, 1S15-1S16)

    -0.4

    -0.2

    0.0

    0.2

    0.4

    Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16

    BBVA transactions

    Álava Guipúzcoa Vizcaya

    -0.4

    -0.2

    0.0

    0.2

    0.4

    Ja

    n-1

    3

    Ju

    l-13

    Ja

    n-1

    4

    Ju

    l-14

    Ja

    n-1

    5

    Ju

    l-15

    Ja

    n-1

    6

    Ju

    l-16

    BBVA transactions

    -0.4

    -0.2

    0.0

    0.2

    0.4

    Ja

    n-1

    3

    Ju

    l-13

    Ja

    n-1

    4

    Ju

    l-14

    Ja

    n-1

    5

    Ju

    l-15

    Ja

    n-1

    6

    Ju

    l-16

    BBVA transactions

    -0.4

    -0.2

    0.0

    0.2

    0.4

    Ja

    n-1

    3

    Ju

    l-13

    Ja

    n-1

    4

    Ju

    l-14

    Ja

    n-1

    5

    Ju

    l-15

    Ja

    n-1

    6

    Ju

    l-16

    BBVA transactions

    11

  • 0.0

    0.2

    0.4

    0.6

    0.8

    1.0

    Eg

    yp

    t

    India

    Chin

    a

    Tu

    rke

    y

    Ph

    ilipp

    ines

    Me

    xic

    o

    Vie

    tna

    m

    Ira

    n

    Ma

    laysia

    Ru

    ssia

    Indo

    nesia

    Pa

    kis

    tan

    Bra

    zil

    Ba

    ng

    lade

    sh

    Nig

    eri

    a

    Media sentiment digital index and ranking for Emerging Asia countries, US and Europe 2015-16 by components

    Source: BBVA Research, www.gdelt.org

    Emerging Asia US Europe

    -2.4-1.9-1.4-0.9-0.40.10.61.11.62.12.6

    ap

    r-1

    5

    ma

    y-1

    5

    jun-1

    5

    jul-15

    au

    g-1

    5

    sep-1

    5

    oct-

    15

    no

    v-1

    5

    de

    c-1

    5

    jan-1

    6

    feb-1

    6

    ma

    r-1

    6

    Digital Economy

    -2.4

    -1.4

    -0.4

    0.6

    1.6

    2.6

    ap

    r-1

    5

    ma

    y-1

    5

    jun-1

    5

    jul-15

    au

    g-1

    5

    sep-1

    5

    oct-

    15

    no

    v-1

    5

    de

    c-1

    5

    jan-1

    6

    feb-1

    6

    ma

    r-1

    6

    Fintech

    -2.4

    -1.4

    -0.4

    0.6

    1.6

    2.6

    ap

    r-1

    5

    ma

    y-1

    5

    jun-1

    5

    jul-15

    au

    g-1

    5

    sep-1

    5

    oct-

    15

    no

    v-1

    5

    de

    c-1

    5

    jan-1

    6

    feb-1

    6

    ma

    r-1

    6

    Digital Regulation

    0.0

    0.2

    0.4

    0.6

    0.8

    1.0

    India

    Chin

    a

    Tu

    rke

    y

    Ira

    n

    Pa

    kis

    tan

    Ph

    ilipp

    ines

    Eg

    yp

    t

    Indo

    nesia

    Me

    xic

    o

    Ma

    laysia

    Ba

    ng

    lade

    sh

    Vie

    tna

    m

    Bra

    zil

    Nig

    eri

    a

    Ru

    ssia

    0.0

    0.2

    0.4

    0.6

    0.8

    1.0

    Chin

    a

    Pa

    kis

    tan

    Bra

    zil

    Ru

    ssia

    Ph

    ilipp

    ines

    Nig

    eri

    a

    Ba

    ng

    lade

    sh

    Eg

    yp

    t

    Tu

    rke

    y

    Ma

    laysia

    Vie

    tna

    m

    Indo

    nesia

    Ira

    n

    Me

    xic

    o

    India

    Economic Analysis

    Using information from media, we get insights about

    the sentiment on several digital issues

    12

  • BBVA Research geostrategic tools and products

    BBVA Research webpage

    in the following link

    You can find us at:

    13

    https://www.bbvaresearch.com/en/category/themes/geostrategy/

  • Index

    Outline

    Big data and education:

    challenges and

    opportunities

    Big Data analysis at

    BBVA Research

    Digital revolution and

    the new business

    environment

    14

  • The growth generated by innovation and digital transformation has five

    sources:

    New

    players and

    markets

    The

    introduction of

    new goods

    and services

    New

    production

    and

    distribution

    methods

    Changes in the

    production

    factors

    Changes in the

    organization

    and

    management

    of firms

    Big Data: a new paradigm that will transform the

    business landscape…

    15

  • … with high potential to grow

    95%

    2%

    3%

    Big Data as an opportunity to grow

    Big Data as a threat

    Big Data effects will be neutral

    Source: BBVA Research and Grant Thornton’s International Business Report

    Big Data leads to important changes in the

    current production structures

    The new available information allows:

    Improve and enrich our decisions

    Answer new questions

    Increase efficiency

    There are still some concerns:

    × Data confidentiality

    × Cyber security

    × New framework to be regulated

    How do corporate leaders see the new

    technologies?

    16

  • Opportunities and challenges in the financial sector

    It’s an opportunity to …

    become more efficient

    improve risk management

    generate greater value for

    customers

    … but with important challenges

    Access to the

    infrastructure

    Education and

    training programs

    17

  • 18

    Index

    Outline

    Big data and education:

    challenges and

    opportunities

    Big Data analysis at

    BBVA Research

    Digital revolution and

    the new business

    environment

  • Education programs need to incorporate new

    competences to take advantage of this new era…

    New skills are focused on

    Deepening the

    Statistical and

    econometric skills

    to analyze the data

    Interpreting the

    results: summarize,

    describe and

    analyze the

    information

    Developing the data

    management and

    programming

    capabilities to work

    with large-scale

    datasets

    New data may end up changing the way economists approach empirical

    questions and the tools they use to answer them.

    Making the right

    questions

    19

  • … and to match market’s demand

    The most in-demand skills in the next years will be

    Business

    intelligence and

    analytics

    Big data expertise Security, compliance

    and governance

    New data will also transform the business demanded competences to adapt to

    the digital era and to exploit its potential

    Programming and

    application

    development

    20

  • Thank you

  • Big Data at

    BBVA Research Big Data Workshop

    University of Navarra

    Tomasa Rodrigo

    BBVA Research

    MARCH 2017