big data at bbva research using bigquery · big data at bbva research using bigquery what is gdelt...

June 2017

Big Data at BBVA Research

using BigQuery Tomasa Rodrigo

Google Cloud Next

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Big Data at BBVA Research using BigQuery

Summary

What is GDELT and how BigQuery helps us to exploit it 01

Geopolitical analysis 02

Economic and digital analysis 03


01 What is GDELT and how

BigQuery helps us to exploit it


What is GDELT?

4

… georeferenced across

the entire planet…

… including over 300 events

around the world and more than

30000 themes…

…and collecting emotions using

some of the most sophisticated

algorithms

Open database of human

society from every corner of the

globe dating back to 1979 …

Global Database on Events Location and Tone


Why do we use BigQuery?

5

Really fast dealing with Big

Databases

Easy to use using SQL

Open access

Complex data analysis

Flexibility and scalability

Combination of historical

data with real time data


Our working proccess

6

GDELT (Global Database

on Events,

Location

and Tone)

Clean,

Aggregate

& transform

the data

Fuse,

visualize

& analyze

the data

BigQuery Data

Storage

(SQL)


Why is it important?

7

Among other things we

can focus in news

intensity, geographic

density of events and

emotions across the

world

Novel data-driven

computational

approaches as needed

to enable a new era in

which these data can be

used to study “real life”

at population scales

At its core, we analyze

geopolitical, political,

social and economic

questions using

quantitative data-

driven methods rather

than qualitative

introspection


What is GDELT and how BigQuery helps us to exploit it

Our products

Political, Geopolitical Social Indexes (Political Indexs)

Color Maps NAFTA Topics (Nafta Project)

Politics & Financial Networks (Political Netwoks)

Mix Hard data & Sentiment & VAR models (CBSI and Turkey Sentiment Indexes)

Geographical Analysis Housing Prices (sentiment on Housing Prices)

Measuring Sentiments (sentiment Analysis on Economy and Society)

Financial Stability & Macroprudential (ECB & FED FS index by FED Board)

8


Tracking Geopolitics on real time is useful to identify the main hot spots and potential spillovers

9 Source: www.gdelt.org & BBVA Research

Conflict Intensity Map May 2017 (Number of conflicts/ Total events)

http://www.gdelt.org/


From an historical perspective…


BBVA Research World Protest and Conflict Intensity Index 1979-2017

World Protest Intensity Map 1979- 2017

79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

USA

UK

Norway

Sweden

Austria

Germany

France

Netherlands

Italy

Spain

Belgium

Ireland

Portugal

Greece

Poland

Czech Republic

Hungary

Bulgaria

Romania

Croatia

Turkey

Russia

Ukraine

Georgia

Kazakhstan

Moldova

Azerbaijan

Armenia

Morocco

Algeria

Tunisia

Libya

Egypt

Israel

Jordan

Syria

Iraq

Iran

UAE

Bahrain

Qatar

Oman

Saudi Arabia

Mexico

Brazil

Chile

Colombia

Peru

Argentina

Venezuela

China

Hong Kong

Korea

Thailand

Indonesia

Malaysia

Philippines

India

Pakistan

Afghanistan

EM

Eu

rop

e &

CIS

Develo

ped

Mark

ets

N.

Afr

ica &

Mid

dle

East

LA

TA

MA

sia

Protests Conflict



… to the main hot spots


BBVA Research Refugees Flows Map in 2015-17 Number of media citations about refugees’ inflows and outflows

BBVA Research Asia Conflict Intensity Index 2008-17



Social unrest events across the world: Cairo, Istanbul and Hong Kong cases Protest events

Source: www.gdelt.org & BBVA Research

Geopolitical analysis …at the exact geolocation



Spanish perception around the world according to the media

Negative tone

Positive tone

Neutral tone


Economic and digital analysis Sentiment analysis: the case of Spain



Contagion effects of China’s slowdown


Chinese slowdown: media perception and country network

Oman

Qatar

Iran

Kazakhstan

Russia

U.A.E.

Iraq

NicaraguaSaudi ArabiaMexico

Chile

Dominican R.Brazil

Bolivia

Ecuador

Venezuela

Peru

Panama

Argentina

Spain

Austria

Ukraine

Israel

Greece

Poland

Belgium

Czech Republic

ItalyNetherlands

Finland

Ireland

Iceland

Portugal

Hungary

Yemen

Sri Lanka

Macau

Indonesia

Philippines

Taiwan

Cambodia

Pakistan

Turkey

Brunei

N. Zealand

Burkina Faso

Singapore

Thailand

Malaysia

Zimbabwe

UgandaNigeria

Zambia

CongoMozambique

Kenya

Sweden

Angola

E. Guinea

EthiopiaSouth Africa

France

US

UK

Japan

Australia

Canada

S. Korea India

Switzerland

Germany

Hong Kong

China



Measuring Chinese uncertainty


Chinese Vulnerability Sentiment Index (CVSI): components and evolution

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Ma

r-15

Apr-

15

Ma

y-15

Jun-1

5

Jul-15

Aug-1

5

Sep-1

5

Oct

-15

Nov-1

5

Dec-1

5

Jan-1

6

Feb-1

6

Ma

r-16

Apr-

16

Ma

y-16

Jun-1

6

Jul-16

Aug-1

6

Sep-1

6

Oct

-16

Nov-1

6

Dec-1

6

Jan-1

7

Feb-1

7

Ma

r-17

Apr-

17

7 days mov.avg 30 days mov.avg

3% dev aluation

Economic work conf erence

Neutral Area +- 0.5 std

1st stock market crash

"Black Monday "

2nd stock market crash,

trade halted f or 3 day s

PMI f alls to 4-Y low

NPC meeting

RMB enters IMF’s SDR basket

De

clin

ing

Se

ntim

en

t (H

igh

er

Vu

lne

rab

ilit

y)

Imp

rov

ing

Se

nti

me

nt

(Lo

we

r V

uln

era

bil

ity

)



Turkey GDP & Economic Sentiment (%YoY and media economic sentiment in Turkish and English)

Systematic bias!

Economic and digital analysis

Narratives matter: language bias




Media Sentiment Digital Index


Media sentiment digital index and components

-2

-1,5

-1

-0,5

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

Ma

r-1

5

Ap

r-15

Ap

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Jun-1

5

Jun

-15

Jul-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Jan

-16

Jan

-16

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Above average

ON average

Below average -2,4

-1,4

-0,4

0,6

1,6

2,6

ap

r-15

ma

y-1

5

jun

-15

jul-15

au

g-1

5

sep-1

5

oct

-15

no

v-1

5

de

c-1

5

jan

-16

feb

-16

ma

r-1

6

Digital Economy

-2,4

-1,4

-0,4

0,6

1,6

2,6

ap

r-15

ma

y-1

5

jun-1

5

jul-1

5

au

g-1

5

sep-1

5

oct

-15

no

v-1

5

dec-

15

jan

-16

feb-1

6m

ar-

16

Fintech

-2,4

-1,4

-0,4

0,6

1,6

2,6

ap

r-15

ma

y-1

5

jun

-15

jul-

15

au

g-1

5

sep-1

5

oct

-15

no

v-1

5

de

c-1

5

jan

-16

feb

-16

ma

r-1

6

Digital Regulation

Emerging Asia US Europe Confidence Interval for Emerging Asia



You can find us at:


Media sentiment digital index and components

BBVA Research webpage

LinkedIn

Twitter


https://www.bbvaresearch.com/en/

https://www.linkedin.com/company-beta/2539533/

https://twitter.com/search?q=#BBVA&src=tyah

June 2017

Big Data at BBVA Research

using BigQuery Tomasa Rodrigo

Google Cloud Next

big data at bbva research using bigquery · big data at bbva research using bigquery what is gdelt...

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