big m conference - future mobile innovations
TRANSCRIPT
Future mobile innovations....@pgolding
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Copyright Paul Golding, 2011http://wirelesswanders.com
The Big M - Bath, 21st March
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In...Europe, Asia, Africa, Middle East, N. Am, LatAm
21st year in mobile (Indie for 14)Surfing the bleeding edge...16 patents (GSM chipsets)Founded mobile apps ISV in 1996PhD research mobile AR
Chief Apps Architect MotorolaAdvised €10K-€10B companiesMentor @ SpringBoard“Intrapreneur” @ O2’s “The Lab”Founded O2 Incubator
W(ho)TF is Paul G? - He’s from the “future”
3Whose future?
Whose future?
Open agenda:Two of my kids at MWC 2011:
Android developers, ages 11,13
Your “developer” future...
Innovation lessons, trends & tricks
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$
Which future?
2011 2014
“skating to where the puck ($) will go”
sorry - no holodeck predictions this time...
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“The future has already arrived. It's just not evenly distributed yet.”
William Gibson
Where is the future?
Being first is often a bad idea...Trick #1 Be first to win, not to market!
tip: copy something else that appears to work;do it better! analyse case studies! project forward!
1997 2003 2008 20102002
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“fish don’t know water exists... until beached”
Marshall McLuhan
BUT...Innovation dilemma
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“fish don’t know water exists... until beached”
Marshall McLuhan
BUT...
thought weneeded this...
now we can’t dowithout this...
Trick #2 - Experiment! Start!tip: ROI of doing nothing is nothing - most start-ups fail because they never started!
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Trick #3 - Code towards customers (users)!
tip: read Steve Blank, Eric Ries, Dave McLure, Osterwalder
1. Reduce operational friction - Run fast as possible - fail fast, pivot often
And.. 2. lower user friction -->
Lower the friction as much as possible...
Source: Crossing the Chasm(Geoffrey Moore)
1 million?
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Trick #4 - Don’t code the future into the producta “whole product” (e.g. Blackberry not POP3) does not mean every feature
constantly test (early) your hypotheses! (Stealth = scared.)build the future into the process, not product, and instrument early
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Source: Dealing with Darwin(Geoffrey Moore)
Recognise when and where to innovate...
Trick #5 - Innovate where it matters!
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DevelopProduct
ConceiveProduct
ChoosePlatforms
DeliverProduct
EngageMarket
tip: Become app analysts & developers
tip: BIG opportunity in the applications ecosystem itself
tip: follow Ahonen, Asymco, VisionMobile, Nielsen blog, other devs...
Trick #6 - Master the whole apps journeyAnalytics, retailing, marketing, support, CRM...
chompflurryallify
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Post PC?
interesting side-note: 42% tablets shared by their owners
Where are we headed with devices?
Utility Experience
Local Cloud
Source: Asymco
“freedom”
“freedom”
“freedom”
13Shift in the balance of power...
comms
OS
Web
Telco OEM Internet
apps
2007
Web
OS
comms
apps
2011
Web
OS
comms
apps
2014
Experience Platforms
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ContextWallet Multi-UXStatus InterestsSocial
“Experience Platforms”
“The Web Operating System”
Real-time bus
Cloud Platforms
IaaS
PaaSSaaS
CaaS
Telco
“Social Stack”
Apps
iOS AndroidHTML5 ?
Identity/oAuth
Right-time Augmented WebLinked Data
BIG DATA
Right-timeComputer
PersonalizedComputer
NaaS
The emergent mobile ecosystem...
Payments
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IaaS
PaaS
SaaS
NodesterDuostackHerokuForce.comdotcloud
AWSRightscaleRackspace
gnipIMifiedchargifyapigee
mPaaS
mSaaS
connFuTropoCorona/Appcelerator?New entrants
flurryallifyapigeeNew entrants
CaaSNaaS
JajahSkype/ViberBlueViaNew entrants
XaaS
FacebookApple?O2?John Lewis?New entrants
Developer ecosystem opportunities...
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global voice mash-ups platform“re-inventing” comms
17Voice still has a BIG future....
Closed voice Open voice
plus “Voice as content” (2014)
2010 2012
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tip: still need a “killer” app(orthogonal to the market)
Platform domination...
Trick #7 - know when you’re really a platform
tip: read Spolsky, Hagiu, Eisenmann
Developers
OEMSOperators
Users
Advertisers
19Business model enablers versus tech enablers...
App stores v HTML5Identity v oAuth
Check-in v LocationOpen platform v Open source
Bit.ly v RedirectsAndroid v MeeGo
Analytics v “No-SQL”Trick #8 - Think biz models, not technology
tip: try Osterwalder’s biz model canvas
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ExperiencePlatforms
“Right-time”web
SensorProliferation
CloudComputing
Post PCDevices
Key trends“Mobile 3.0”
Possible Mobile 3.0 tipping points (TP)...
when mobile really is first
SeamlessComputing
Network,LTE
Hardware,OS
Apps
Hardware,AR,
Health
PaaS
AbundantAccess
Identity,Privacy
Real-time& meta-data
abundance of developer opportunities throughout the ecosystem
SaaS
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2011 - 2014 Rules for the New Bubble
• Founders/VC’s can engineer financial transactions
• Transactions economically or usage accretive
• Still require Agile, Cust Dev & Bus Model
• Add: Adoption, Order of Battle and Visibility
Future of start-ups...
Taken from Steve Blank - SXSW 2011
Trick #9 - Leverage the start-up ecosystemtip: go read the whole presentation http://slidesha.re/gqa9KG
tip: get a really good mentor or join an incubator
22Future of work...
Trick #10 - Start the future today!
