BIO-DYNAMIC

CONSUMER FORECAST SPRING/SUMMER 2015

BIO-DYNAMIC:PRIORITIES

INTRO

The Bio-Dynamic macro trend looks at systems. In the companion consumer forecast, see how consumers are breaking down numerous traditional structures and developing new frameworks that continue to challenge the status quo of many of our existing organisations.

WHAT’S DRIVING THIS MOOD

A consumer demand for life on their terms: new education establishments, new systems and networks for health and home, new energy structures and new class and culture hierarchies.

BIO-DYNAMICS/S 15 CONSUMER FORECAST

PRIORITIES

BACKGROUND

Explore the consumer priorities associated with Bio-Dynamic through three key themes: Personal Ecosystems, Clean Bill of Health and C-Class Revolution.

PERSONAL ECOSYSTEMS

CLEAN BILL OF HEALTH

C-CLASS REVOLUTION

NO.1

NO.2

NO.3

As more of the day-to-day products in our lives are connected to the internet, consumers are developing personal “ecosystems” that link home, car, office, school, entertainment and leisure.

New attitudes to health and wellbeing include a re-definition of the boundaries between “dirty” and “clean”. Companies harness bacteria for new energy sources and consumers re-evaluate what bacteria can do for them. Personal ecosystems are also creating a radical change in the health industry.

By 2020, 1 billion people will have entered the middle class, with 66% of them in emerging markets. They have newly acquired wealth and a better standard of living, but there is still a long way to go - consumers in countries round the world will debate the nature of “middle class”.

PERSONAL ECOSYSTEMS

BIO-DYNAMIC

NO.1

EXAMPLE

Consumers are fast developing personal ecosystems, a network of connected gadgets that constantly communicates with them, updating them on everything from basic domestic needs such as “You need more laundry detergent” to personal information such as “Two people liked your Instagram photo”. As more products are added to each consumers’ “Internet of Things”, from home products, to cars and social networks, it becomes increasingly important for brands to develop goods that do not disrupt these unique ecosystems. According to a recent White Paper from Cisco: “In 2003, there were approximately 6.3 billion people living on the planet and 500 million devices connected to the internet. Looking to the future, there will be 25 billion devices connected to the internet by 2015 and 50 billion by 2020.”

NO.1

INTRO

As the Internet of Things continues to expand, the premise of an interconnected “living” global brain is gaining new ground. The Gaia Theory, first articulated by James Lovelock and Lynn Margulis in the 1970s, posits that: “living organisms and their inorganic surroundings have evolved together as a single living system [that] self-regulates global temperature, atmospheric content, ocean salinity and other factors in an ‘automatic’ manner”. While other scientists have argued Lovelock’s ideas, his theories suggest a world where a consumer’s connected products provide an integrated support system. New experiments with slime moulds have compared their naturally occurring, regenerative networks to community systems. Consumers’ personal networks are becoming part of an ever-growing global organism of data. What’s important for brands to understand is that the products they design must add to consumers’ “support” or “eco” systems.

BIO-DYNAMIC

PERSONAL ECOSYSTEMS

NO.2

INTRO

The apps and gadgets enabling the e-health revolution are vital components of consumers’ personal ecosystems and support networks. This tech phenomenon is another example of the way consumers are taking control of their health management. It’s also stimulating an active pursuit of “good health” in general; being able to measure and monitor heart, diet, exercise and weight. Consumers are feeling empowered to keep a “clean bill of health” and there are now numerous products in this space, offering everything from blood-pressure monitoring and symptom evaluation, to apps that enable parents to keep their children’s health, growth and development information at their fingertips. Brands that increase opportunities for consumers to feel better about their “inside” selves will win in this regard.

BIO-DYNAMIC

CLEAN BILL OF HEALTH

CLEAN BILL OF HEALTH

NO.2

INTRO

The Bio-Dymamic macro trend looks at the tensions between “dirty” and “clean” and the fact that consumers are re-evaluating notions of hygiene. Recent scientific experiments look at the possibility of generating clean energy from bacteria. According to Science Daily: “The research shows that it is possible for bacteria to lie directly on the surface of a metal or mineral and transfer electrical charge through their cell membranes. This means that it is possible to ‘tether’ bacteria directly to electrodes – bringing scientists a step closer to creating efficient microbial fuel cells or ‘bio-batteries’”. People are learning the importance of good bacteria for themselves, with projects such as American Gut that enable consumers to get a detailed breakdown of their personal bacteria issues so they can create tailored health solutions. The sheer number of diets that aim to shift consumer thinking about food, from gluten- or dairy-free, to full-blown paleo, shows that consumers are interested in changing what they eat in order to manage their health.

BIO-DYNAMIC

C-CLASSREVOLUTION

NO.3

INTRO

The middle class around the world is flexing its muscles and challenging the definitions of what it means to be part of society’s largest consumer group. The evidence of this trend is perhaps nowhere more prominent than in the emerging economies of Brazil and China. Known as the C-Class (in a class structure that spans A to E) Brazil’s middle class has been growing at a rapid rate over the last 10 years. Recent figures suggest as many as 54% of the population is now in the C-class. Recent riots all over the country (which started as a protest about bus fare hikes) suggest wide ranging dissatisfaction with the status quo. In addition to a need for government change, brands need to offer more choices for the C-Class. Society is still very polarized in brand offerings – from super value to super luxury, with nothing much in between.

BIO-DYNAMIC

NO.3

INTRO

The Chinese middle-class is a new-found strata of society that is demanding change for the better. “About 10% of China’s 1.35 billion people now count as middle class, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, a figure that is set to rise to 40% by 2020. However, their concerns about air pollution, food safety and China’s education system show the challenges facing the country’s newly appointed leaders, who have promised a shift away from the model of growth at all costs,” wrote Tom Hancock in a recent article in the Taipei Times. “Chinese consumption, largely driven by the middle class, will account for $6.2 trillion by 2025.” And, according to People’s Daily: “Karl Gerth, author of As China Goes, So Goes The World: How Chinese Consumers are Transforming Everything and lecturer in Modern Chinese History at Oxford University, said every company in the world now has to have a strategy for the Chinese middle class.”

BIO-DYNAMIC

C-CLASSREVOLUTION

KEYTAKEAWAYS

Brands need to respect and add to consumers’ personal eco-systems.

Consumers are prioritising health and wellness, trying new diets and respecting good bacteria.

The e-health revolution is having a dramatic effect.

The middle class is demanding change throughout the world.

Brands need to think about how they can facilitate middle-class consumers around the world achieve their dreams.

BIO-DYNAMIC

BIO-DYNAMIC RESEARCH & REFERENCES/S 15 CONSUMER FORECAST

THE INTERNET OF THINGS GAIA THEORY

CES: TOP TRENDS MOULD NETWORKS

THE CONNECTED HOME SLIME DYNAMICS

The Internet of Things, also known as The Internet of Objects, refers to the networked connection of everyday items such as tables, chairs, refrigerators, TVs and more. For more information, including white papers and studies, check out tech company Cisco’s Internet of Everything website.

www.cisco.com

The Gaian paradigm of Earth as a living system was developed by James Lovelock and Lynn Margulis in the 1970s and has inspired various researchers working across disciplines ranging from physics and biology, to philosophy and politics.

www.gaiatheory.org

At CES this year, WGSN’s team tracked the top trends that would have an impact in the coming years and the concept of personal ecosystems was mentioned repeatedly. Experts also spoke about the need for companies to standardise in order to make sure add-ons to personal ecosystems work seamlessly with existing products and apps.

www.wgsn.com

An Oxford University research team analysing networks created by slime moulds has compared these networks to the complexity of the Tokyo rail system, concluding that the sophistication matches human network designers. These findings can be applied to mobile communication and transport networks and even human blood flow.

www.ox.ac.uk

Our homes are becoming the hub of our personal ecosystems, with many household items, such as refrigerators, TVs, gaming consoles and alarm systems being added to the internet. For an in-depth look at the future connected home, check out the recent article.

www.wgsn.com

Slime Dynamics looks towards the vibrancy and vitality of basic life forms such as bacteria and mould as a way to understand the connections between digital technology, cybernetics and biological evolution. It celebrates the dark vitality and unpleasantness of life.

Slime Dynamics by Ben Woodard

(ISBN:9781780992488)

RESEARCH & REFERENCES/S 15 CONSUMER FORECAST

E-HEALTH & M-HEALTH HUMAN MICROBIOME PROJECT

HEALTHY EATING AMERICAN GUT

PALEO PEOPLE BIO BATTERY

There is a vibrant thread of humanism appearing online – romantic, quirky, emotional and expressive images and text. This can be seen as a reaction to the simple “I Like” expressions we’ve come to be limited by online, as well as the slick emotionless images of N.D.A.

www.who.int

The Human Microbiome Project is a research project that aims to understand how the human microbiome relates to health. This data analysis project maps out the complex ecosystem of micro organisms found in the body and provides new analysis of human biology

www.hmpdacc.org

The Horse e-books meme is growing. What originally started as randomised computer-generated poetry, programmed to invade Twitter, has become an internet phenomenon. Inspired by the lyrical and romantic nature of its Twitter posts, Horse e-books has developed a loyal fan base.

blogs.technomic.com

American Gut gives consumers the opportunity to have the microbes in their guts analyzed and to compare them to those of thousands of other people in the US and around the world.

www.indiegogo.com

Grocery stores in the US and UK are stocking a wider variety of glueten-free, dairy-free and other diet-related foodstuffs for consumers following various health programmes. Vegetarian, pescetarian, gluten and dairy free have all been growing in popularity. The paleo diet is based on eating what our paleolithic man ate - cutting out any food that came after agriculture, such as rice, wheat, dairy and so on.

thepaleodiet.com

Scientists are excited by the possibility of creating clean energy from bacteria. “These bacteria show great potential as microbial fuel cells, where electricity can be generated from the breakdown of domestic or agricultural waste products.”

www.sciencedaily.com

BIO-DYNAMIC

RESEARCH & REFERENCES/S 15 CONSUMER FORECAST

BRAZILIAN RIOTS CHINESE MIDDLE-CLASS

BRAZIL’S C-CLASS MIDDLE-CLASS CONCERNS

FAVELA CONSUMERS CHINESE POLLUTION

Hundreds of thousands of Brazilians have been marching and rioting in the streets of Rio, São Paulo and other major cities in the country. Initially marching against a fare increase on the buses, the protests now encompass a general dissatisfaction with corruption in government and poor public services.

www.reuters.com

Of the 1.35 billion people in China, about 10% now count as middle class. “By 2022, our research suggests more than 75% of China’s urban consumers will earn 60,000 to 229,000 renminbi ($9,000 to $34,000) a year.”

www.mckinsey.com

The middle class in Brazil is known as the “C-Class”, which sits right in the centre of the nation’s class hierarchy of A to E. The C-Class has increased dramatically over the last few years. Reports suggest it now represents 54% of the Brazilian population.

www.worldcrunch.com

The growing middle class in China is beginning to voice its concerns about numerous problems in society, including, air quality, pollution, health, food safety and education.

www.taipeitimes.com

The C-Class includes 65% of favela residents. These residents number approximately 12 million people and earn around $28.4 billion a year. It’s a growing and changing market that cannot be ignored.

www.csmonitor.com

With an exploding middle class and rapid urbanisation comes pollution, an issue that is affecting consumers’quality of life. “Some middle- and upper-class Chinese parents and expatriates have already begun leaving China, a trend that executives say could result in a huge loss of talent and experience.”

www.nytimes.com

BIO-DYNAMIC

SEASONALEVOLUTION

MACRO TRENDS

INTRO

Each season the consumer forecast provides an evolution of the previous season’s themes. We have seen the evolution from the need for refinement of systems connected to the Neo-Geo macro trend, to the redefining consumerism of Industrial Evolution, to the need for new systems in Bio-Dynamic.

BIO-DYNAMIC

INDUSTRIAL EVOLUTION

REFINEMENT

S/S 15

A/W 14/15

2013

Bio-Dynamic looks at how consumers are breaking down numerous traditional structures and developing new frameworks that continue to challenge the status quo of many of our existing organisations.

The Industrial Revolution delivered a dramatic rise of machines and factory-made products. As we continue into the 21st Century, the relationship between man and machine is evolving and this is changing the face of consumerism and how we work.

In the 2013 macro trends revolutionary ways of designing cities and public systems were investigated and the consumer forecast looked at the ways people are seeking to redefine these systems.