bio taiwan 2009 final presentation reenita das
TRANSCRIPT
1
A Paradigm Shift in Healthcare: Changing Business Models and the Impact of Technology
Presented By: Reenita Das
Senior Vice President, HealthcareFrost & Sullivan
2
A Changing LandscapeA Changing Landscape
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Global
Healthcare
Conclusion
Emerging Trends and Impact on Technology
Setting the Context
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Healthcare industry for the next decade
Medicine of the past
Medicine of the future
Paradigm Shift in Healthcare
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Healthcare is challenged by three interlocking crises that make present healthcare systems unsustainable:
Rising Costs
Changing Demographics
Quality of Care
15% of patients admitted to hospital
suffer an adverse event.
8% of adverse events result in death.
6% of adverse events result in
permanent disability.
10-20% of all adverse events is caused
by medication errors.
10-15% of hospital admissions occur
because providers do not have access
to previous care records.
20% of laboratory tests are requested
because the results of previous
investigations are not accessible.
The Size of the Problem – Quality
Cost
Demographics Quality
Cost
Demographics Quality
Interlocking Crises that Make Healthcare Ever Changing
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Economic Perspective: Healthcare Spending Set to Double
By 2050 Healthcare spending will double, claiming 20 – 30% of GDP
Public Per Capita Spending – India : $ 12, Vietnam : $ 42
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MANUFACTURER PROVIDER
Technology…….Enables it
Economics………………Require it
Demographics………….Demand it
PATIENT/CONSUMER
Technology is The Central Solution Driver Accelerating Change
Addressing demographics
Virtual patient monitoring tools/ home monitoringPatient education programs fostering preventative mindsetTelemedicine
Addressing rising costs
Large volume, low cost manufacturing (e.g basic medicines/ vaccines)Contract manufacturingBiopharmaceuticals
Reduction of errorsEarly diagnosis and targeted treatmentEliminate unaccountable variations in practice across the country/region
Addressing qualityAddressing quality
Technology is The Central Solution Driver Accelerating Change
© 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com©2009 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
Global
Healthcare
Conclusion
Emerging Trends/ Impact on Technology
Setting the Context
© 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com©2009 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
DiagramDiagramChanges in the Global Pharmaceutical Environment Require Pharmaceutical and Biotech Companies to Adapt to Changing Business Models
Pre 2005Pre 2005
Blockbuster Model
20152015
Niche Drugs and R&D
20202020
Integration & Supply Chain
Integrated packages of products and services
Patient monitoring & compliance
Pharma and medical devices providing sophisticated and efficacious solutions
Integration of pharma, diagnostics, medical devices, patient monitoring and healthcare IT
Preventative Healthcare & Wellness
Astounding growth in the vaccines industry
Marketing of Value Added Services
Genomics and proteomics expected to reduce R&D times
‘In life testing’ will take over the current clinical trial process. Continuous data monitoring can be done by the regulators during the testing process. Clinical trials will eventually become shorter
Supply chain functions will evolve to a revenue generating model. Products and services will be marketed through the supply chain
Just in time manufacturing, novel delivery methods and direct to consumer distribution will be adapted from other industries like the automotive industry
Automated dispensing of drugs
Smart cards / internet to store patients details
20152015
20202020
Opportunities in the Global
Pharma Market
Opportunities in the Global
Pharma Market
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Cancer Treatment Represents the Highest Potential
ProjectedRevenues In2012
High Revenues
Low Revenues
Growth Rate (2007-2012)Low High
Diabetes
Cancer
CNS
Cardiovascular
RespiratoryGastroenterology
MultipleSclerosis
Established Treatments
Unmet Needs
© 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com©2009 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
Can
cer
Pip
elin
e 20
07 –
Spl
it by
Pha
se II
I & I
Increasing Focus on Biologics in the Future Cancer Related Drugs Constitute Half of the Current Biotech Pipeline.
Phase III: 5-10 years to launch
Phase I: 10-15 years to launch
Cancer vaccines are an emerging technology that are likely to create the next wave of growth in the biotechnology industry because of better safety profiles and minimal side effects
Other: Includes genetic disorders, skin disorders, eye conditions, growth disorders, transplantation
Monoclonal Antibodies constitute half of the Phase III biotech pipeline. More Monoclonal Antibodies are likely to reach the market in the next 5-10 years.
2007
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DiagramDiagramGene Therapy will Drive the Market in the Longer Term. Technologies such as Pervasive computing are Important in Improving the Drug Discovery Process.
Defining diseases more accurately and creating healthcare packages for patients with specific disease subtypes. Resulting in Premium Drugs and the launch of health care kiosks offering one-stop-shop services
Semi Block Busters, Patent Expiration Strategies
Gene Therapy
Growth RateOp
port
unit
ies
Biologics: Targeted Treatment Solutions, Integrated Solutions
Gene therapy uses genes to treat or prevent disease. In the future, this technique will allow doctors to treat a disorder by inserting a gene into a patient’s cells instead of using drugs or surgery
Genomics / ProteomicsCellomics
SmartTags
Petaflop & Grid computing
Future TechnologyTrends
Predictive biosimulation
Advanced storage solutions
Pervasive computing
Web-scale mining
A disease led approach creates a new discovery and development model. Technology will improve the process e.g. making in-life testing more cost efficient. This brings significant changes for pharma companies in terms of time, development costs and success rates to man.
2005 2010 2015 20202005 2010 2015 2020
MoreInfo
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Top-10 Medical device based platforms for the next decade
New innovations in In Vitro Diagnostics like Mircoarrays and Lab-On-A-Chip have brought a revolution in the field diagnostics.
New innovations in In Vitro Diagnostics like Mircoarrays and Lab-On-A-Chip have brought a revolution in the field diagnostics.
Growth Rate
Op
port
un
itie
s
Preventive as well as personal care devices and Home/Self therapy devices will have a very high growth rate and opportunities in entire spectrum of the market.
Preventive as well as personal care devices and Home/Self therapy devices will have a very high growth rate and opportunities in entire spectrum of the market.
Intelligent/Automated devices, Robotic
devices for surgery and diagnosis will
reshape the modern face of the healthcare
sector
Intelligent/Automated devices, Robotic
devices for surgery and diagnosis will
reshape the modern face of the healthcare
sector
2005 2010 2015 20202005 2010 2015 2020
Tissue generated devices and site-
specific drug delivery devices are being
developed for more sophisticated
healthcare delivery
Tissue generated devices and site-
specific drug delivery devices are being
developed for more sophisticated
healthcare delivery
Infection control devices/Wound care
Home/Self therapy devices
Total disc replacement
Robotic devices
Advanced In Vitro Diagnostics
Virtual reality
Intelligent/Automated devices
Electrical stimulation
Site specific drug delivery
Tissue generation devices
Upcoming medical device technology platformsUpcoming Technologies in Medical Devices
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Clinical IT Systems and Electronic Medical Records Represent the Highest Potential in the Future
ProjectedRevenues In
2012
High Revenues
Low Revenues
Growth Rate (2007-2012)Low High
Clinical decision support systems
Image management systems
EHR / PHRFinancial management
Resource management
Clinical IT solutions
EMR
Declining market
Mature market
Emerging market
Growing market
Patient management systems
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• Fully integrated healthcare delivery
Pre 2005Pre 2005
• Emphasis on administrative systems and automation
20152015
• Adoption of clinical systems • Patient self-management
• Emphasis on home healthcare services
20202020
• Adoption of clinical systems
• Efficient medication management
• Management of chronic diseases and mental health
• Availability of patient information for mapping disease patterns to be used in the R&D of drugs and treatment techniques/technologies
• Patient ability to self–manage disease
• Remote consultation and monitoring
• Self-testing, early treatment, and the management of medication
• Greater application of bioinformatics in healthcare-related research
• Emphasis on home healthcare services to improve hospital efficiencies and save patient costs
• Private hospital groups and public hospitals integrated to deliver patient-centric healthcare services with better outreach
• Patient expectations of safety
• Safe data sharing and safe care
• Patient data security
• Patient-centric healthcare delivery
• Patient portals and mobile technologies of patient monitoring and management
20202020
Opportunities in the India HIT Market
Opportunities in the India HIT Market
• Active use of biometrics as healthcare becomes more patient-centric
• Optimal efficiency in healthcare delivery using IT, as number of patients and costs rise
• Need for cost and quality transparencies will drive the use of IT in healthcare services
• Integrated patient records
• Improved medical tourism
Emerging Technologies in Information Communication and Technology Rapidly Changing Patient Care Scenario
© 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com©2009 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
Global
Healthcare
Conclusion
Emerging Trends and Impact on Technology
Setting the Context
© 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com©2009 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
Technology Opportunities
Asia Healthcare Spend by Area, 2009-2020
• Major opportunities within
diagnostics and monitoring
• Products and services will not
be standalone but will be
“packaged” to target specific
diseases.
• Example : predict avian flu,
diagnose, treat, monitor
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Fragmented Patient Flow Integrated & Automated
From...
Invasive Diagnosis & Treatment
Less Invasive, Preventative, Image Based
Provider Centric Focus Patient Centric
Centralized – Hospital Monitor De-Centralized–Shift to Community
One Size Fits All Approach Personalized Medicine
Therapeutics/Diagnostics/Devices Tools “Theranostics”
Treating Sickness Objective Preventing Sickness – “Wellness”
...To
A modern healthcare system is on the horizon, experiencing a paradigm shift
In Nutshell
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Reenita DasSenior Vice President
Frost and [email protected]