Biodiversity: Policy Challenges Biodiversity: Policy Challenges in a Changing Worldin a Changing World

Natural Capital Initiative symposium: “Valuing our life support systems”

London

Professor John BeddingtonChief Scientific Adviser to HM Government and

Head of the Government Office for Science

29 April 2009

Global challenges

Water demand Energy demand

Urbanisation Population

Alleviating poverty

Climate Change

Infectious diseases Food demand Biodiversity

Causes of degradation are stable or increasing

Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

Millennium ecosystem assessment

Biomes

More than half of the 6/14 major world biomes had been converted by 1990

Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

Human Footprint

Source: Wildlife Conservation Society

Extinctions per thousand species per million

Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005

Future extinction rates estimated to be 10 to 100 times higher

Extinction of species

• 2002, Conference of the Parties of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) 123 Ministers committed themselves to:

• ‘“.. achieve, by 2010, a significant reduction

of the current rate of biodiversity loss at the

global, regional and national levels as a

contribution to poverty alleviation and to the

benefit of all life on earth” (Decision VI/26)

CBD 2010 biodiversity target

Risks to ecosystems – need to act

Source: IPCC AR 4

The situation may be worse than predicted

Source: NSIDC 2007Arctic, near-ice free by 2030?

(Source: Wang and Overland, 2009)

Ocean Acidification

Source: Blackford & Gilbert 2007, Caldeira & Wickett 2003

Changes in pH over the last 25 million years

Oceans are an important reservoir for CO2 with ~30% of CO2 produced from fossil

fuel burning & land-use change taken up by

oceans(Sabine et al 2004)

• Oceans will become: warmer; more acidic; less diverse; and over exploited

• The impact on ocean food webs, ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles could be very serious

Increases in global population and urbanisation

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Popu

latio

n (b

illio

ns)

Oceania

Northern America

Latin America

Europe

Asia

Africa

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision (medium scenario)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Po

pu

latio

n (m

illio

ns)

Urban population

Rural population

Urban and rural populations of the world

(at mid-year) 1950 - 2050World population, by region

Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: 2008 (revision)

Increased demand for

food and energy

0.00

500.00

1000.00

1500.00

2000.00

2500.00

3000.00

3500.00

4000.00

4500.00

1969/71 1979/81 1989/91 1999/01 2030 2050

Mil

lio

n T

on

ne

s o

f fo

od

Milk and dairy (excl butter)

Meat (carcass weight)

Vegetable oils, oilseeds and products

Pulses

Sugar

Roots and tubers

Cereals, food

World food requirements

World food production must rise by 50 % by 2030 to meet increasing demand (Source: UN 2008)

World primary energy demand by fuel

Total world energy demands are predicted to increase by approx. 50% by 2030 (Source: IEA 2008: Reference Scenario)

Source: UNEP, 2002

Availability of fresh waterC

ubic

met

res

of w

ater

Fresh water availability per head of world population

Source: ABS 2005

1 in 3 people are already facing water shortages

Source: Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture 2007

Total world water demands are predicted to increase by over 30% by 2030

Source: IFRPI

The Perfect Storm?The Perfect Storm?

Increased demand 50% by 2030 (IEA)

Energy

Water Increased demand

30% by 2030

(IFPRI)

FoodIncreased demand

50% by 2030

(FAO)

Climate Change

Solutions?

•Ensure value of ecosystems are taken into account when making decisions•New energy technology•Make hard choices about agriculture, food, energy and water•Better planning and management•Change behaviour, education and training

We recommend enhancing levels of taxonomic training and linking such training more directly to the ongoing measurement of biodiversity. Royal Society – measuring biodiversity for conservation, 2003

Agricultural production

More people means less cultivated land per personfor food, feed, (agro)-fuel and fibre production

2030 – 8.3 bn people

2030 – even less farmland per person

Source: NRC, 2008/Henoa and Baanante 2006

Cereal production evolution

Hard Agricultural Choices (i)

Agricultural productivity

Source: Embrapa, Brazil

Hard Agricultural Choices (ii)

Key Questions

Increased demand 50% by 2030 (IEA)

Energy

Water Increased demand

30% by 2030

(IFPRI)

FoodIncreased demand

50% by 2030

(FAO)

Climate Change

1. Can 9 billion people be fed equitably, healthily and sustainably?

2. Can we cope with the future demands on water?

3. Can we provide enough energy to supply the growing population coming out of poverty?

4. Can we mitigate and adapt to climate change?

5. Can we do all this in the context of redressing the decline in biodiversity and preserving ecosystems?

Biodiversity

Joint Programmes

Joint Climate Research Programme