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Biodiversity:Present, Past,

Future?

Nancy Knowlton

National Museum of Natural History

Smithsonian Institution

Marine Biodiversity CrisisNatural Disturbances

+People

CO2

NutrientsToxicsSedimentsAliens

Anything Longer or Taller than 5 cm

1 - 9 million reef species in total (?)1/4 of all marine species (?)

Most are rare

Coral Reefs: “Rainforests of the Sea” ~1000 coral species

22 dead coral heads ~ 20% of total European diversity

DISCOVERY BAY, JAMAICA IN 1975

GONE

and not just in Jamaica

Caribbean-wide:80% decline in 30 years

Pacific on same trajectory

July 2008

At Risk

?

OK

Business as usual = no reefs by 2050

Remember: CO2 lasts for centuries in the atmosphere

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Scenarios for the future

Pristine Human Dominated Wasteland

Bio

dive

rsit

y an

d E

cosy

stem

Fun

ctio

n?

?

Where is what being lost?

Synergies between

coral cover and

diversity

fish

Jackson et al. 2001

PRISTINE DISTURBED

Overfishing and Trophic CascadesEntire food webs are affected

Jellyfish & Bacteria(aka “the rise of slime”)

X

X X

Without managementeven a few people can

have substantial impacts on coral reefs through

fishing and sewage

Kingman (US)pop. 0

Palmyra (US) pop. ~10

Tabuaeran (KR) pop. ~ 2000

Kirimati (KR) pop. ~ 6000

Hawaii

Australia

Time Machine Research

Bacteria

Viruses

Othermicrobes

Altered Communities

Bottom cover

Increasing human influenceIncreasing human influence

Reduced Resilience

Increasing human influence

California Condor Conservation Strategies

Not a Realistic Option for Most Species,

What Do We Do?

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Build Ecological Resilience Reduce Local Impacts so Reefs Can Recover from

Impacts We Can’t Control

150 years

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Marine Protected Areas as One Tool for Building Resilience

Great Barrier Reef, Australia Two of the World’s Largest MPAs

Protect Coral Reefs

But less than 2% of reefs are protected globallyMPAs alone are not enough

?Provides Insurance, Buys TimeProvides Insurance, Buys Time

Short Term/Local Scale:

Control fishing pressureImprove water quality

Longer Term/Global Scale:

Reduce CO2 emissions

Resilience Strategies

“First let’s concentrate on water. Then we’ll worry about krill”

If We Fail….