BioEarth: A Regional-Scale Earth System Model to InformLand and Water Management Decisions

Jennifer Adam1, Kirti Rajagopalan1, Claudio Stöckle1, Chad Kruger1, Michael Brady1, Michael Barber1, Kiran Chinnayakanahalli7, Georgine Yorgey1, Roger Nelson1, Shifa Dinesh1, Keyvan Malek1, Jon Yoder1, Serena Chung1, Joe Vaughan1, Fok-Yan Leung1, Brian K. Lamb1, R. Dave Evans1,

John Harrison1, Jennie Stephens5, Alex Guenther3, Ananth Kalyanaraman1, L. Ruby Leung4, Mingliang Liu1, Christina Tague6, Andy Perleberg1, Yong Chen2, Todd Norton1, Xiaoyan Jiang3, Jun Zhu6

(1) Washington State U., (2) Oregon State U., (3) NCAR, (4) PNNL, (5) Clark U., (6) U. of California, Santa Barbara, (7) Air-Worldwide

ABSTRACT

Example Results: The Columbia River Basin (CRB) Water Supply and Demand Forecast for Year 2030

Example Results: The Columbia River Basin (CRB) Water Supply and Demand Forecast for Year 2030

ABSTRACTFor better management in the face of climate change, Earth system modelsmust explicitly account for natural resource and agricultural managementactivities. Including cropping systems, water management, and economicmodels into an Earth system modeling framework can help in answeringquestions related to the impacts of climate change on water resourceavailability, water demand, crop productivity, and environmental impacts. Hereinwe describe example results from integrated modeling efforts over the PacificNorthwest (PNW) region. Results were designed with the intent to informdecision making by water managers and agricultural producers, the utility forwhom is enhanced through stakeholder input throughout model development.

Over the PNW region, temperature is projected to risebetween 1-5oC with the greatest warming in thesummer; while precipitation seasonality changes willresult in even wetter winters and drier summers, withlittle certainty as to changes in annual precipitation(Mote and Salathe 2010). These changes will diminishsurface water availability during the growing seasonand increase irrigation water demand, with negativeconsequences for irrigated agriculture (Elsner et al

The Biosphere-relevant Earth System Model (BioEarth) http://www.cereo.wsu.edu/bioearth/

Motivation: The 21st Century’s Grand Challenges include understandinghow changes in the balance of nutrients -- carbon, oxygen, hydrogen,nitrogen, sulfur, and phosphorus -- in soil, water, and air affect thefunctioning of ecosystems, atmospheric chemistry, and human health.

Objective: To improve the understanding of regional and decadal-scaleC:N:H2O interactions in context of global change to better inform decisionmakers involved in natural and agricultural resource management, we aredeveloping a new earth system modeling framework that will explicitly

consequences for irrigated agriculture (Elsner et al.2010; Vano et al. 2010). We applied an integratedmodeling framework (1. coupled hydrology andcropping systems model, 2. reservoir and watercurtailment model, and 3. economics model) to studyfuture water supply and irrigation water demand overthe CRB for improved water resources management.

Annual supply increased by ~3% in annual surface water supply. However, supply seasonality shifted (-14% during the irrigation

address N and C flows in the context of decadal climate variability. Theframework includes atmospheric models (for meteorology and atmosphericchemistry), land surface models (for hydrology, cropping systems, andbiogeochemical cycling), aquatic models (for reservoir operations andnutrient export in rivers), and economic models.

Yakima River Basin Supply and Demand

Historical

Application over the area’s mostwater-stressed system (the YakimaRiver basin in central WashingtonState) shows an increase in unmet

g gseason and +18 in winter).

Irrigation water demand increased by ~4%. With the change in crop mix due to economics, this increase is reduced to ~2%.

Future

S a e) s o s a c ease u eirrigation demand by an average of50% by 2030 (see figure at right),causing increased water stress in analready stressed system. Thefrequency of water rights curtailmentalso increases by 50%.

Climate change also impacts cropyields (Stockle et al. 2010), as follows:Precipitation – mostly positive fornon-irrigated cropsWarming – mostly negativeCO2 Enrichment – positive effect onCO2 Enrichment positive effect onC3 crops

DrylandCrops

Impacts of Climate Change, CO2 Enrichment, and Economics on Washington State Crop Yields

Irrigated Crops

BioEarth Collaborators

Link to report: http://www.ecy.wa.gov/programs/wr/cwp/crwmp.html

Funding Sources