Accepted 9 February 2011Available online 1 April 2011

interactive data collection methods to reveal the evolving technological interdependence for

1. Introduction

Technological innovations can play an important role in system innovations, in which the user context, markets or system

Technological Forecasting & Social Change 78 (2011) 11301146

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Technological Forecasting & Social Changeenvironment will be largely transformed [14]. In the paradigm of technological innovations, the individual effect of incrementaltechnical changemay be onlyminor, but the cumulative capacity is essential to construct the institutional contexts and innovationinfrastructure for developing a nation's innovation system as a whole [5,6]. For example, technological developments in thechemical industry have been cumulative innovation driven. The synthetic organics industry based on coal tar revolutionizeddyestuffs, eventually paving the road to plastics, synthetic bers, biopharmaceuticals, and biofuels. This argument is especiallycritical for technology catching-up latecomer countries (e.g. China, Taiwan and Korea) who are accustomed to specializing indemand-pull innovations (e.g. incremental innovations) aimed at the middle or the bottom of the income pyramid.

With the hope to leapfrog into innovator status and gain international technological supremacy, these latecomers are startingto pursue technology-push innovations (e.g. disruptive innovations), especially in emerging industries such as renewable energy

or biotechnology [7,8]. According to the Ungiant, has become the world's fourth-largesrate since 2002. These raise profound questwith the building of national innovation sy

Corresponding author at: Institute of Technology ME-mail addresses: mchu@mx.nthu.edu.tw (M.-C. H

1 Tel.: +1 858 635 4886; fax: +1 858 635 4528.

0040-1625/$ see front matter 2011 Elsevier Inc.doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2011.02.013China's emerging biofuel industry. Three findings are excerpted from our empirical results.First, due to dominant patterns of business ownership, China's biofuel technology is seen aslargely based on the evolutionary strength of the foodstuff and chemical fields. Second, China'sbiofuel technology development has evolved in the mode of forward engineering, led byChinese universities rather than initiated by the public research institutes as in the experienceof other East Asian latecomers. Third, our patent map and technology trajectory analysesillustrate that China's biofuel technology tends to be application-oriented and highlyintertwined with the pharmaceutical industry since the 2000s, which evidences thedevelopment of biofuel industry as reciprocally reinforcing China's innovation capabilityderiving from its prominent chemical sector. By examining endogenous technology capabilityembedded in the national innovation capacity, this study uncovers public implications for othertechnology latecomers attempting to build an emerging industry while facing technologyuncertainty in a transitional society.

2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.Keywords:BiofuelsRenewable energyPatentsChinaTechnological interdependenceTechnological evolutionReceived in revised form 1 February 2011Technological evolution and interdependence in China's emergingbiofuel industry

Mei-Chih Hu a,, Fred Phillips b,1

a National Tsinghua University, Hsinchu 300, Taiwanb Alliant International University, San Diego, CA 92131-1799, United States

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history:Received 23 April 2010

This study uses the European Patent Office worldwide patent database and applies two-stageited States Patent and Trademark Ofce (USPTO), Huawei, the Chinese No. 1 telecomst patent applicant in 2008, while Korean Samsung enjoys the No. 1 patenting growthions about how the technology innovations have evolved and become interdependentstems in emerging countries such as in China and Korea.

anagement, National Tsinghua University, Hsinchu 300, Taiwan. Tel.: +886 3 5162162; fax: +886 3 5623770.u), fphillips2@alliant.edu (F. Phillips).

All rights reserved.

Technological knowledge serves as a shareable input that is used in research on various technologies and innovations of eithersort [916]. For example, the current success of biofuel manufacturing is restricted on the one hand by limits on the availability of

1131M.-C. Hu, F. Phillips / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 78 (2011) 11301146primary raw materials, and on the other hand by the maturity of fermentation and bio-renery technologies. All the knowledgecreation processes of biofuel technologies heavily depend on the utilization of related technologies in other elds throughknowledge generation, diffusion, combination and extraction. In other words, all these will interplay in synergy to shift theeconomic balance in favor of global implementation of biofuels, including the growing awareness of total-system costs, and ourability to compute the total energy and water budgets of producing, transporting, and using biofuels.

China is the third largest bioethanol producer in the world and No. 1 in Asia since 2006 while Asia has become the largest oilconsuming region [17]. Up to 2008, 61% of rural household energy in China comes from traditional use of biomass such as livestockmanure or rewood direct burning [17]. China's push into renewable energy has been driven by its need to diversify its energysources in order to reduce its reliance on fossil fuels for sustainable economic growth. China is a technology latecomer aiming atreducing its carbon emission in accordance with the 10th ve-year plan in 2004. China's biofuel industry has not only become oneof the nation's priorities to sustain the energy sources but also acted as a practice to demonstrate its innovation capability in thisemerging eld. However, relatively little is known about the underlying compositions of the biofuel technology and itsinterdependence with other applications, despite that it is widely recognized that the industrial boundary is blurred because of thediverse downstream applications in agriculture, petro-chemical and rening, chemical engineering, and biotechnology [1820]. Inall the renewable energy industries, both technology-push and demand-pull innovations rely heavily upon the development oftechnology relatedness to reduce the technology barriers as well as the market cost.

To focus on the trajectory of technological development in a latecomer's (China's) emerging biofuel industry, this paperexplores two questions: (1) How have biofuel related technologies evolved in China and how do they interact with othertechnology elds? (2) Does the degree of technological interdependence in the biofuel industry reciprocally reinforce China'sinnovation capability in related elds?

This paper rst discusses, in Section 2, the theoretical background regarding the importance of exploring technology trajectoryin the biofuel industry. Section 3 addresses the development of China's biofuel industry. Section 4 explains the method oftechnological interdependence and evolution. Section 5 provides a reection on the results, followed by a discussion andconclusion in Section 6, in which policy and managerial implications are set forth.

2. Theoretical background

Current knowledge and technology serve as input and fundament for future research projects and thereby determine theirdevelopmental trajectory and cost structure [2125]. Inputs like R&D manpower, equipment and codied knowledge can bedevoted to several technological elds but at varying costs. The widespread technology relatedness may generate economies ofscope in research, so that future research in related elds will be less costly when the corresponding knowledge and equipmentbase reinforces learning and efciency [26,27]. In this respect, a nation's current technology capability is linked to the capacity ofits prominent technologies that will be used to increase chances of success for the related emerging elds.

Innovation capability (in terms of patenting activity) is subject to evolutionary path dependence and can be measured by (1)technology value and (2) current economic value.2 Many studies have demonstrated the overestimated value of patents in bothOECD countries and latecomer countries, whereas other factors like secrecy, time to market and complementary commercialassets are more important than the consequences of patenting behavior [2830]. Hall and Ziedonis [31] further argue that theeconomic gains in the US semiconductor industry are mostly derived from the management of patenting rather than theknowledge inherent in the patents.

Previous studies overwhelmingly emphasize the exploration of current economic/market value for patenting activity but notmuch literature discusses the potential variation of technology value in the patenting activity. For most cases in technologyfollowers such as China and India, technology value is either ignored or underestimated (e.g. see Refs. [32,33]), assuming a lowerpatent quality or science linkage (e.g. India's pharmaceutical industry or China's electronics industry). Even though thedevelopment process of new products such as biofuels has been characterized as one of technological uncertainty, the evolution ofa technology development trajectory can be utilized as a map for strategic planning and technological development [34]. Undertechnological and market uncertainties, this technological evolution is particularly useful for the technology follower to reinforceits latecomer advantages in the emerging industry [24,25]. Given the important inuence of technological change on marketperformance, the integration and decomposition processes of the supply chain are leading to signicant product improvements incost, quality, and cycle time [3537]. This suggestion has been demonstrated in many studies for developing countries andtechnology latecomers. For example, Hu [24] and Curtis et al. [25] demonstrate that the innovation activity (measured by patents)of Taiwan's at panel displays (FPDs) heavily depended on the accumulated technology capacity in that country's chemicals sectorand correlates well with the downstream market performance (measured by market share) in each rm.

Climate change spurs well-funded research for renewable energy, but it remains a small share of total energy use in China andworldwide. Most renewable sources did not experience a rapid growth until 2007, while coal has been the fastest growing majorfuel from 2003 to 2007 [17]. North America used to be the largest oil consuming region, with 84% of total demand attributed to theUS during the last decades (Please see Appendix A for details.) This dominance had not changed until 2006 when Asia surpassed

2 We use the technology value to mean future ows of economic value stemming from the diffusion or commercialization of the current technology.

North America and become the world's largest oil consumer. This is mostly attributed to the rapid economic development ofemerging countries in the area, especially China and India. More than 30% of Asian oil consumption is absorbed by China since the2000s.

Energy security has been one of the major concerns in a series of China's ve-year sustainable economic plans since 1999 [38]The development of renewable energy technology is certainly the priority if China is to achieve its goal to become the largestrenewable energymarket as well as an innovator. (No country dominates the industry yet [39].) As a technology latecomer aimingat utilizing the emerging technologies as in other renewable energy elds such as wind turbines, hydropower, and solarphotovoltaic, the innovation capability in China's biofuel industry may still have to be built on the accumulated capacity, anddepend on technology evolution as in the chemical eld [40,41]. Understanding the cumulative causation is particularly helpful inthe formation stage for an emerging industry such as biofuels [42].

Aiming at reducing its energy dependence on fossil fuel as well as its carbon emissions, China is the third largest bioethanoproducer in the world and number one in Asia, as shown in Table 1. The success of biofuel manufacturing is restricted by limits onavailability of primary rawmaterials, by the maturity of fermentation and bio-renery technologies, and by new knowledge aboutthe limitations of food crop-based biofuels and the overall energy budget of biofuels.We consider two of the critical barriers for thedevelopment of biofuel industry: (1) the feedstock availability from supply side and (2) conversion process from technology sidein what follows.

1132 M.-C. Hu, F. Phillips / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 78 (2011) 113011462.1. Supply side: feedstock

According to the survey by the International Energy Agency [43], two feedstocks are currently considered as the best sourcesfor the second generation biofuel which is non-food competitive, with higher efcient emission reduction than the rstgeneration. The rst feedstock source is land-based with abundant lignin and lignocellulose plants, including jatropha curcas,alfalfa, switchgrass, miscanthus, reed canary grass and giant reed. The second feedstock source is 5070% carbon dioxide containedsea-based algal, in which the manufacturing technology is derived from the rst generation's fermentation (macro-algal) andtransesterication (micro-algal). Various species of algae have been chosen to test the transformation efciency. For example,Japan and Taiwan have taken gracilaria and sargassum as targets, for both are rich in polysaccharides that can be transformed toethanol.

Kim and Dale [44] estimated that the global potential lignocellulose biomass (fromwaste and crop residues) can produce up to442 billion liters of ethanol per year. Amongst which, lignocellulosic crop residues are currently gathered from rice straw (with204.6 billion liter capacity), wheat straw (103.8 billion liters), corn stover (58.6 billion liters), and bagasse (51.3 billion liters)while Asia is a large potential crop residue ethanol producer, as shown in Fig. 1. If the above mentioned hurdles can be overcome,Asia is expected to provide 60% of global crop residue ethanol capacity (261 billion liters), mostly extracted from its abundant ricestraw (91%), followed by wheat straw (41%). It is also clear that the EU is heavily reliant on wheat straw for bioethanol production,producing 37% of global volume, while North America produces 66% of global corn stover and South America produces 46% ofglobal bagasse residue.

2.2. Technology side: conversion processes

It is increasingly understood that the rst generation biofuels produced primarily from food crops are limited in their ability toachieve targets for oil-product substitution, climate change mitigation and economic growth. Their sustainable production isunder review, as is the possibility of creating undue competition for land and water used for food and ber production. A possibleexception that appears to meet many of the acceptable criteria is ethanol produced from sugar cane.

The cumulative impacts of these concerns have increased the interest in developing biofuels produced from non-food biomass.These second generation biofuels could avoid many of the concerns facing the rst generation biofuels and potentially offer

Table 1Global Ethanol Fuel Production, by region and country, 19972007. Unit: Ethanol Production (thousand tons).Source: Canadian Renewable Fuels Association; European Bioethanol Fuel Association; [17].

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

North America 6362 7335 9312 12,381US 2374 2572 2714 2996 3251 3957 5173 6247 7208 9017 11,957Canada 115 127 295 424

South America 7737 7053 6487 5349 5729 6291 7243 7334 8082 9028 11,431Brazil 7737 7052 6483 5343 5726 6286 7226 7314 8010 8871 11,264

EU 120 136 241 223 264 472 824 886Germany 12 82 215 197Spain 50 50 57 52 127 151 198 174France 57 57 111 101 50 72 146 289

Asia 154 230 673 1164 1275China 38 144 580 985 1043India 90 75 50 60 70

World Total 10,111 9625 9200 8465 9116 10,490 12,793 14,190 16,562 20,328 25,972.

l

,

66%

91%

37%

41%

46%

41%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Africa Asia EU North America Central & SouthAmerica

Oceania

Bill

ion

liter

s

Corn stover Rice straw Wheat straw Bagasse Others

Fig. 1. Global potential bioethanol production from lignocellosic biomass, by region. Note: Others include barley straw, oat straw and sorghum straw etc.Source: [40].

1133M.-C. Hu, F. Phillips / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 78 (2011) 11301146greater cost reduction potential in the longer term. The production of biofuels from ligno-cellulosic feedstocks can be achievedthrough two very different processing routes, biochemical and thermo-chemical approaches which are currently at thedemonstration phase, as shown in Table 2.

Nevertheless, these are not the only 2nd generation biofuel pathways. Several variations and alternatives are under evaluationin research laboratories and pilot-plants, including dimethyl ether, methanol or synthetic natural gas. However, these alternatives,at this stage, do not represent the main thrust of Chinese R&D and production investment.

In order for cellulose to be used in biofuel, the cellulose in plants must be broken down into fermentable sugars. The currentway to pre-treat cellulose is with acid. However, the resulting material must be washed and detoxied. Washing, detoxifying andadding nutrients back into the pretreated cellulose are three separate steps while each step is expensive and adds to the cost of thebiofuel. Thus, the cost effectiveness of breaking down cellulose into fermentable sugars has been a major issue slowing cellulosicethanol production [45]. To clarify how a technology latecomer country such as China overcomes the above-mentioned barriersand creates its technology trajectory in the development of biofuel industry, we examine the development of China's biofuelindustry.Table 2The 1st and 2nd generation biofuels.Source: Ref. [39].

Feedstock Main technology Manufacturingprocess

Product

The rstgeneration

Rapeseed, soybeans, sunowers, jatropha,coconut, palm, and waste cooling oil

Physiochemical biofuels Transesterication Biodiesel

Corn, wheat, potato, sugar beets, andsugarcane

Biochemical biofuels

Enzymatic fermentationAnaerobic fermentationDistillationPhotosynthesis/digestion

EnzymaticsynthesisFermentation Bioethanol

The secondgeneration

Lignocellulose (crop residues, grasses,and woody crops), waste

Enzymatichydrolysis

Cellulosic ethanol or butanol,bio-H2

Thermochemical biofuels

GasicationPyrolysisHTU (hydrothermal upgrading)HDO (catalytical hydro-de-oxygenation)Alkylation (NExBTL diesel)

Gasication-basedconversion

F-T fuel, methanol, MTBE,gasoline, DME, mixed alcohols,and bio-H2

HTU, pyrolysis,HDO

Bio-diesel

Macro-algal Biochemical Fermentation Ethanol or butanolMicro-algal Physiochemical Transesterication Biodiesel

Biochemical in which enzymes and other micro-organisms are used to convert cellulose and hemicellulose components of the feedstocks to sugars prior totheir fermentation to produce ethanol. Thermo-chemical where pyrolysis/gasication technologies produce a synthetic gas (CO+H2) from which a wide range of long carbon chain biofuels, suchas synthetic diesel or aviation fuel, can be rened.

3. Chi

Incoordinated efforts by Chinese companies, industry associations, central and local government agencies and non-governmental

1134 M.-C. Hu, F. Phillips / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 78 (2011) 11301146organizations to develop various renewable energy sectors [46]. In the case of biofuels, the supply of non-food raw materials aswell as the technology development of the second generation has been the main concerns in China's public policy.

Corn has been used to make about 90% of all US bioethanol, although its share is declining due to the increasing food price. (Forexample, in 2006 alone, the price of corn is increased by 23%, according to the study of Liu [46].) Corn is also the main feedstock forbioethanol production in China, and is ranked second (next to rice) in grain crops production in China. Considering food security, thedevelopment of fermentation technology from non-food lignocellulosic materials such as agricultural residues, wood, and energycrops have become one of major priorities in China's renewable energy development plans since the 10th ve-year plan in 2005.

In 2005, the National People's Congress passed legislation to offer subsidies for renewable energy (around twice the amount asfor coal). An immediate effect was shownwhen bioethanol production increased to 1.55 million tons in 2007, produced by the fourmajor state supported companies (i.e. Jilin Fuel Alcohol, Heilongjiang Huarun Alcohol, Henan Tianguan Enterprise, and AnhuiFengyuan Group), and bioethanol-blended petrol accounted for 20% of the total petrol consumption in China [47]. The four majorstate-supported companies along with the strong government supports in promoting and inuencing the development of China'sbiofuel sector will be detailed in a later section's discussion.

To examine our research questions how China's biofuel related technologies and technological interdependencies evolvedwe use the methodology described below.

4. Methodology

There are feasible alternative methodologies for collecting and measuring technological trajectory, interdependence, andknowledge ows. One such would be to analyze the product mixes by reverse engineering. However, such a method does notreveal the evolving technological interdependence and may generate subjective perceptions. Patent data analysis is widelyrecognized as a reliable and objective indicator to understand the origin, formation process, and evolving impact of a technology[23,48,49]. We utilize the worldwide patent database of the European Patent Ofce (EPO) because this database covers a nation'sdomestic and international patenting activities (where 128 countries' Intellectual Property Ofces have joined as members of theEPO). Given that the commercialization of biofuel technology is not mature yet, only critical patents will be led internationally, soit is useful to examine the international patent families through the EPO worldwide [50,51].

4.1. Data collection

This study uses two-stage interactive data collection methods utilizing biofuel related keywords and International PatentClassications (IPCs) in order to identify the biofuel patents as precisely as possible. The rst stage is the data collection, in whichthe biofuel related patent key words and IPCs are collected from one of the most comprehensive biofuel information platforms,Biofuels, Bioproducts, and Biorening (Biofpr, http://www.biofpr.com). The Biofpr platform aims to provide the most updatedbiofuels information, and keywords are updated from time to time due to changing technologies. Our data collection from theBiofpr platform thus records these changes, and lasts for one and half years, from July 2007 to December 2008, until these changesof the biofuel related keywords have converged and remained. Ultimately, we identied 90 biofuel related keywords alongwith 95biofuel related IPCs (4-digit) over the period. (Please see the Appendices B-1 and B-2 for the details.) Given that biofuel technologydevelopments are highly interdisciplinary, the second stage is to perform cross check between the 90 biofuel related keywords and95 IPCs in order to extract the most relevant biofuel patents as much as possible. In the end, 9246 biofuel related patents, whoseassignee country is China, were extracted from the European Patent Ofce (EPO) database.

4.2. Measures

4.2.1. Technological trajectory (patent family analysis)Harhoff et al. [51] suggest that patents representing large international patent families are particularly valuable. We thus use the

EPO worldwide database to produce a patent family analysis (shown in Table 4) along with measuring indicators. This generatestechnology maps for the critical patents, illustrating the trajectory of technological development in China's biofuel industry.

4.2.2. Technological interdependenceTo clarify the relationship of technological interdependence between and amongst different technological elds, this study

adopts a specic measure of technological overlap, developed by Fung and Chow [52] to measure the degree of interdependence(DOI) between industries (also see Hu and Tseng [16]). The formulation is dened as follows:

DOIk;j;t=TOk;j;tPTj;tna's biofuels industry

line with the national plan, the emerging renewable energy sectors in China are growing rapidly. There have been

reinfomatercriticis

ChcommexceptUniveThe oninstitu

Oufrom uor pubsuch aboth eprojec

1200

1400

1600

1800

tent

s

3 In cthe phycompon

1135M.-C. Hu, F. Phillips / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 78 (2011) 11301146able energy as awhole, which in the 2000s showed a critical commercialization threshold as themarket demandwas greatlyrced by public policy and government subsides. However, the rst generation biofuels, mainly utilizing crops as rawwhere DOIk,j,t denotes the degree of technological overlap between two industries. It is the number of patents simultaneouslygranted to industries k and j at time t; while PTj,t is the number of patents granted to industry j at time t.

4.2.3. Technological knowledge owsTo capture and reect faithfully the evolving pattern of development for China's biofuel innovative capability over the past

decades, the empirical results derived from the rst stage are then cross veried by analysis of backward and forward patentcitations in the USPTO to examine its knowledge ows (please see the works of the NBER scholars [31] and [48] for detaileddiscussions on knowledge ows). The dataset is divided into ve sectors: (1) universities; (2) public research institutes; (3) state-owned enterprises; (4) private sector; and (5) individuals. Backward citation rate refers a count of the citations made reference bya sector's patents to prior patents. This helps to trace the source of innovation/knowledge as well as the developmental trajectoryof innovation capability in the sectors [24]. On the other hand, forward citation rate represents a count of the citations received bya sector's patents from subsequent patents. This helps to evaluate the technological impact of patents [40]. High citation counts areoften associated with important inventions, ones that are fundamental to future inventions and may have more competitiveadvantages in that technological eld.

5. Empirical results

5.1. Descriptive statistics

As shown in Fig. 2, the patenting activity of China's biofuel development corresponds to the trend of global development ofrenew

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

Num

ber o

f pa

Fig. 2. China's biofuel patents, by year.Source: EPO and complied by the authors.ials, became controversial in the mid-2000s due to the resulting increase in the price of agricultural products [42,46]. Thism is reected in the decreased patenting activity in China's biofuel sector after it reached its historic peak in 2005.ina's national innovation capability has mainly relied on universities as a hub for forward engineering andercialization activity over the last 30 years [40,53,54].3 The development of the emerging biofuel industry is not anion. Table 3 indicates that eight of the top ten innovators of China's biofuel industry are universities, while Zhejiangrsity, Nanjing University, and Tsinghua University are listed as the No. 1, No. 2, and No. 4most prolic patentees respectively.ly two exceptions are China Petroleum Corp (state-owned) and Chinese Academy Institute (the leading public researchte) which are respectively ranked as the No. 3 and No. 5 innovators.r empirical results also demonstrate the intimate relationships between biofuel and chemical related technologies. Apartniversities, China's top biofuel innovators are overwhelmingly dominated by the chemical related state-owned corporationslic institutes such as Dalian Chemical Physics and Shanxi Coal Chemical Institute. Indeed, the global petro-chemical leaderss BP and Shell have announced a switch in their strategy on renewable energy to largely focus on the biofuel area, while theyither abandon or cut the budget for other renewable energy options includingwind turbines and solar photovoltaic researchts [39].

ontrast to reverse engineering, forward engineering refers to a moving-forward process from the formulation of original idea, basic R&D, applied R&D, tosical implementation of commercialization. On the other hand, reverse engineering is to analyze an existing product or service in order to identify itsents and their interrelationships.

Table 3China's top ten biofuel innovators, 19782008 Patents granted.Source: EPO worldwide database search and compiled by the authors.

1986 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 Total

1136 M.-C. Hu, F. Phillips / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 78 (2011) 11301146UNIV ZHEJIANG 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 3 18 19 45 37 14 25 164UNIV NANJING 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 4 5 18 14 33 28 18 16 145CHINA PETROLEUM CORP 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 0 2 0 2 3 8 7 12 7 11 14 16 8 5 10 109UNIV TSINGHUA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 5 6 11 16 30 15 13 7 108CHINESE ACAD INST PROC 1 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 3 1 13 23 22 17 6 7 99UNIV JIANGNAN 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 14 23 24 7 15 97UNIV CHINA AGRICULTURAL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 4 6 19 30 12 10 84UNIV SHANGHAI JIAOTONG 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 4 9 12 22 16 11 8 84UNIV TIANJIN 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 2 0 0 1 0 1 2 1 4 11 7 14 18 11 4 80UNIV SHANDONG 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 1 8 5 13 14 6 7 63

500

600

700

800

900

er o

f pat

ents

C12N

A23L

C07C

C12PFig. 3 demonstrates the biofuel patenting activity over the last 30 years (19792008), in which the human necessity technology(i.e. A23L, the preparation or treatment of food or non-alcoholic beverage) exerts the primary impetus in the development ofChina's biofuel technology before the 2000s. As stated above, the 2000s was a critical turning point for China's biofuel industry (aswell as for the global biofuel industry,) while many related technologies started to ourish. The C12N (i.e. the compositions ofmicro-organisms or enzymes), especially, has become China's main biofuel technology driver since the 2000s.

5.2. Technological trajectory (global patent family analysis)

Even though it is not perfect, patent data is widely recognized useful for measuring innovation and technological regimes[29,55,56]. The indicators of technology valuemay include claims, regions, invention scopes, claim length, family of patents, family ofapplications, competency of inventors, backward citations, forward citations, number of continuation, division, and continuation inpart (if led in the USPTO), litigations and etc. It is widely recognized that only valuable innovations will result in applications foroverseas patents. Thus, we further examine China's 84worldwide families of patents across the USPTO, EPO,WIPO, and JPO, in orderto trace the evolving trajectory of the critical innovations over the past decades. Indeed, we see the 84 worldwide patent families ascritical milestones for developing China's biofuel industry. To explore the compositions of the critical patent families, a detailedexploration in terms of biofuel technology functions and effects are shown in Table 4 and Fig. 4 respectively.

Table 4 and Fig. 4 indicate that China's biofuel technologies tend to be application-oriented and focus on manufacturing process,and catalyst and fermentationmedia for bioproducts.While Table 4 indicates the white space for developing the biofuel technologiesin China, Fig. 4 demonstrates that all the critical biofuel innovationsourished from the2000s.4 Physiochemical biofuel (therst biofuel

4 The white space analysis allows to spot the opportunities for what's not there from the crowded areas of patenting. Therefore, the white space mappinganalysis helps the researcher or the company in determining their R&D strategy by suggesting potential high-payoff technology investigation and patentingareas.

0

100

200

300

400

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Num

b

A23K C12R

Fig. 3. China's biofuel patenting activity, 1986-2008.Source: EPO worldwide database search and complied by the authors.

generation) is China's most matured technology, with different evolving development stages from focusing on various materials trialsin theperiod20002005, to distillation andbioproducts in the recentyears. This technology transition is associatedwith theemergenceof the second generation biofuels (mostly based on enzymatic biochemical and gasication-based thermochemical conversionapproaches), which prevailed from themid-2000swhile the price of agricultural products substantially increased andmany advancedcountries such as the US and Japan identied biochemical and thermochemical biofuels as their major targets [17,19]. Along with

Table 4Mapping China's biofuels technology from the global patent families.Source: EPO worldwide database and compiled by the authors.

Physiochemical Biochemical Thermochemical Bioproducts(media and reactors)

Process equipments

Transestericationreaction

CN101195572 (US) 2006 CN101041609A (WO)2006

CN1763102 (WO.EP) 2005 CN101063056 (WO)2006

CN1557913 (WO.US.EP.CA.BR)2004

CN1648113 (WO. US. EP)2004

CN1141250 (WO.TW.RU.EP)2001

CN1368540 (WO.US)2001

CN101130469 (WO) 2006 CN101016703 (WO)2007

CN1749281 (WO. JP) 2005CN1763102 (WO. EP) 2005CN101016703 (WO) 2007 CN1299798 (US) 1999

Manufacturingprocess

CN101130466 (WO)2006CN1483499(WO.EP.KR.JP) 2003CN1113906 (WO.JP.EP)1994

Enzymaticsynthesis

CN1100028 (US.EP.DK.DE)1999

Gasication-basedconversion

CN101016703 (WO)2007

CN1814609 (US) 2006

Separation system CN101239868 (WO)2007

7002-60025002-40023002-10020002-9991raeY8991-4991

stnempiuqessecorPstnempiuqessecorPstnempiuqessecorP)OW(664031101NC)PJ.RK.PE.OW(9943841NC)PE.PJ.OW(6093111NC

Physiochemical Physiochemical Physiochemical CN1141250 (WO.TW.RU.EP) CN101195572(US) 2006

CN1763102 (WO.EP) 2005 CN101130469 (WO) 2006CN1749281 (WO.JP) 2005 CN101016703 (WO) 2007 CN1763102 (WO.EP) 2005

sleufoiblacimehcoiBsleufoiblacimehcoiBCN1299798 (US) 1999 Enzymatic synthesis CN2736363Y (WO) 2004

5002)PE.SU(3874281NC9991)ED.KD.PE.SU(8200011NC Gasification-based conversion5002)OW(6426751NC9991)PE.UR.WT.OW(4887821NC

CN1749281(WO.JP) 2005 Thermochemical

CN101016703 (WO) 2007

Bioproducts Bioproducts Bioproducts CN1368540 (WO.US) 2001 CN1648113 (WO.US. EP) 2004 CN101041609A (WO) 2006

CN1814609 (US) 2006 CN101063056 (WO) 2006CN101239868 (WO) 2007

Manufacturing process Manufacturing process

Distillation & bioproductsli ti

Various material trials

Catalyst Fermentationmedia and

CN1557913 (WO.US.EP.CA.BR) 2004

Fig. 4. The evolution of China's global patent families, 19942007.Source: EPO worldwide database and analyzed by the authors.

1137M.-C. Hu, F. Phillips / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 78 (2011) 11301146CN1287884(WO.TW.RU.EP)1999

Enzymaticfermentation

CN2736363Y (WO) 2004CN1824783 (US.EP) 2005CN1576246 (WO) 2005

Enzymatichydrolysis

CN1749281 (WO. JP) 2005CN1299798 (US) 1999

chemical related technologies, bioproducts are particularly thriving in catalysis and fermentationmedia innovationswhich aremostlyderived from the development of the second generation biofuels.

Fig. 5 shows that the dynamic evolution of China's biofuel technology is overwhelmingly based on the chemicals eld, despitethat it has changed along with the different focuses of China's industrial development over the last 20 years. In the 1980s, China'sbiofuel technology was highly interdependent with organic ne chemistry and process technology, while the agriculture and foodand pharmaceutical technologies joined as the knowledge base for biofuels in the 1990s. It is not until the 2000s thatpharmaceutical technologies (such as drug andmicrobiology, especially in the eld of scientic Chinese herbal medicines) becamedominant knowledge ows for China's biofuels and reached the 5060% degree of technology interdependence. Indeed, China'spharmaceutical industry is growing signicantly and has become the number-one producer, in terms of production value, farahead of other Asian latecomers, as shown in Fig. 6.

We also conducted t-tests across different technological elds in the last two decades (19891998 and 19992008). The t-testresults substantiate the signicant differences while the technological interdependence of organic ne chemistry and agriculture andfood technologies since the 1990s and pharmaceutical technologies in the 2000s are all statistically signicant at the 5% level. Thesendings also correspondwith the suggestion of previous studies, in which the university acts as themain knowledge source while thechemical industry (including chemistry and pharmaceuticals) is the main driver for China's innovation activity over the last 30 years[40,53].

5.3. Technological knowledge ows: backward and forward patent citations

Backward patent citations are references made to prior art in a patent application. Thus, they can trace the source ofinnovation/knowledge as well as the developmental trajectory of innovation capability [24,57]. The forward citation rate reectsthe technological value and impact of the patents. It is worth noting that the development of China's biofuel technology is highlyindependent from that of other countries and performs as a closed innovation circuit. This is shown by its high self citation rates(in both backward and forward) as demonstrated in Table 5. The biofuel technology derived from the university sector is seen asthe most active and open innovation circle, with its external knowledge source (i.e. the backward citation rate) accounting formore than 64%, followed by the private sector which accounts for 35% of external knowledge sources. Along with the highpercentage of forward citation (92%), the data implies an enhanced innovation capability along with the absorptive capacity in theuniversity sector while that in the private sector is relatively weaker. In comparison, the biofuel technology developed by thepublic research institutes presents a relatively closed innovation circulation, while Chinese assignees are the major knowledge

1138 M.-C. Hu, F. Phillips / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 78 (2011) 11301146diffusers and accelerators in the development of China's biofuel industry, with the backward and forward self citation ratesamounting to 88% and 38% respectively.

Degree of interdependence between China's biomass and other industries, 1986-2008

0.0000

0.1000

0.2000

0.3000

0.4000

0.5000

0.6000

0.7000

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

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Deg

ree

of in

terd

epen

denc

e

Civil engineering, building and mining Consumer goods and equipmentTransports Thermal processesEngines, pumps and turbines Machine toolsEnvironmental technology Materials processing, textile and paperAgricultural and food processing and machinery Hadling, printingProcesses technology Agriculture and foodPharmaceuticals BiotechnologyMaterials, metallurgy Surface technology, coatingChemical engineering Macromolecular chemistry, polymersOrganic fine chemistry Medical technology

Fig. 5. Technological interdependence between China's biofuel and other industries.Source: EPO and complied by the authors.

6. Discussions and concluding remark

Three ndings are excerpted from our empirical results, in which the two research questions are answered. First, thetechnological development of China's biofuel sector was highly dependent on the human necessity technology eld (i.e. A23Lthe preparation or treatment of food or non-alcoholic beverage) before the 2000s, and has switched its reliance to the country'sstrong chemical related eld (i.e. C12N, the compositions of micro-organisms or enzymes) since the 2000s. In comparisonTaiwan's biofuel technology was found to be more dependent on its electronics and semiconductors elds, when the samemethodology was applied in an initial investigation by the rst author of the present paper. This demonstrates the evolutionarylock-in effect as well as the importance of technology interdependence and knowledge diffusion in building a nation's innovationcapability.

Second, China's biofuel technology development has evolved in the mode of forward engineering, led by Chinese universitiesrather than initiated by the public research institutes, which is in contrast to the experience of other East Asian latecomers[8,40,53,54]. This argument is reinforced by the evidence of China's high degree of biofuel technology independence and relativelyclosed innovation circulation.

Third, our patent map and technology trajectory analyses illustrate that China's biofuel technology tends to be application-oriented and mainly focused on developing bioproducts utilizing fermentation and catalyst technologies. These matured biofuetechnologies are highly intertwined with the pharmaceutical industry (especially in the eld of scientic Chinese herbamedicines) since the 2000s as shown in Fig. 5 above. This evidences that the development of biofuel industry is reciprocallyreinforcing China's innovation capability deriving from its prominent chemical sector. Indeed, the bioethanol fermentationtechnology has already seen maturity in China [58,59].

Table 5Backward citation/knowledge ows for China's biofuel industry, by sector.

University PRI Individual Private sector State-owned enterprise

Citing N Cited N Citing N Cited N Citing N Cited N Citing N Cited N Citing N Cited N

CN (36%) 23 CN (92%) 54 CN (88%) 60 CN (38%) 15 CN (71%) 20 CN (90%) 89 CN (65%) 16 CN (92%) 48 CN (100%) 1 CN (100%) 2US 10 DK 1 US 1 11 US 4 DE 2 JP 2 2CA 10 1 3 US 8 3 FR 1 3 HK 1DE 5 JP 1 NZ 1 DE 1 KR 1 KR 1 US 4 GB 1GB 4 US 1 JP 1 JP 2 4 DE 1CH 4 FR 1 KR 1 BE 1 JP 1 FR 2JP 3 IN 1 FR 1 NL 1 GB 1KR 1 SG 1NC 1NL 1SU 1Total 63 59 68 40 28 99 29 52 1 2

Note: Citing rate refers to backward citation while cited rate indicates forward citation.

1139M.-C. Hu, F. Phillips / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 78 (2011) 11301146,

,

ll0.00

50.00

100.00

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450.00

1985

1987

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1991

1993

1995

1997 19

9920

0120

0320

05 2007

US$

100 m

illion

India Taiwan Korea Singapore China

China

Taiwan

Korea

India

Singapore

Fig. 6. Production of pharmaecuetical industry in Asia, selective coutries, 1985-2008.Source: India Bulk Drug Manufacturing Association, http://www.bdmai.org/production.html; Korea Pharmaceutical Manufacturers Association, http://www.kpma.or.kr/kpma/ENG/dkorea.asp; China's Chemical Information Network, http://chemport.ipe.ac.cn/index.shtml.

1140 M.-C. Hu, F. Phillips / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 78 (2011) 11301146We now discuss the three key empirical ndings, and add case material from the four major biofuel companies in China. Wethen conclude the paper with informed conjecture on the emerging biofuel technology in China's transitional society.

6.1. The intimate relationship with chemical and food engineering related elds

As of 2009, China had more than 20 biofuel companies with a total of 30 billion ton production capacity, according to theNational Bureau of Statistics of China. Derived from the ninth ve-year national plan since 1997, four state supported enterprises(SOEs) in the ve provinces (Heilongjiang, Jilin, Henan, Anhui, and Liaoning) have been selected as critical demonstration sites,aiming at reducing the dependence on fossil fuel by 100 billion tons by 2020. The four selected state-supported enterprises are(1) Heilongjiang Huarun Alcohol Co. Limited, (2) Ji Lin Fuel Alcohol Co. Limited, (3) Henan Ten Guan Ethanol Fuel Co. Limited, and(4) Anhui BBCA Biochemcial Co. Ltd. Actually, three state-owned giants are major shareholders of the four ethanol producers:(1) China National Cereals Oils and Foodstuffs (COFCO) is sole owner of Heilongjiang Huarun Alcohol, Anhui BBCA's largestshareholder with a 20.74% stake, and controls 20% of Ji Lin Fuel Alcohol; (2) China Petroleum and Chemical Corp. (Sinopec, a listedcompany on domestic and international stock exchanges with integrated upstream, midstream, and downstream operations)holds 60% of Ji Lin Fuel Alcohol's shares; and (3) China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC, China's largest oil and gas producer)controls 55% of Tianguan's parent Tianguan Group.

The four state-supported biofuel companies are briey described as follows.

1) Heilongjiang Huarun Alcohol Co.: HHA was established in February 1998 and registered as a China and foreign joint venture.The company belongs to the Large and Light industry specialized in alcohol manufacturing. Main products include corn oil;high protein DDGS feed; biofuel and etc.

2) Ji Lin Fuel Alcohol Co.: Ji Lin Fuel Alcohol was jointly built by China National Petroleum Corporation, Jilin Grain Group Co., Ltdand China Resources Corporation, with interest of 55%, 25% and 20%, respectively. It was established in 2001 with paid-incapital RMB1.2 billion and is the rst large fuel alcohol production base in China. The renovation project in Jilin Fuel Alcohol Co.,Ltd. has been launched to expand the capacity to 400,000 t/year. It is expected to double the capacity to 1 million ton/year by2015 and become the leader in China's biofuel industry.

3) Henan Ten Guan Ethanol Fuel Co. It was established in 2003 under the approval of the National Development Plan. Henan TenGuan Group is the largest shareholder with 60% while CNPC controls 40% of Henan Tech Guan shares. The company currentlyowns 300,000 t/year production capacity.

4) Anhui BBCA Biochemical Co. was founded in 1998 and listed in Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 1999, is a leading enterprise inagricultural product processing in China. BBCA Biochemical is a core subsidiary of COFCO group, which is listed in Fortunemagazine as one of the world's top 500 enterprises. Their products are widely applied in food additives, feed additives, andchemical and medical industries, including citric acid and citrate etc. As one of the largest manufacturers of citric acid andcitrate in the world and one of the leading agricultural products processing enterprises in China, BBCA Biochemical has passedthe various international authentications such as ISO9001, ISO14001, HACCP, and NON-GMO.

Through the dominance of business ownership, China's biofuel technology is seen as largely based on the evolutionary strengthof the foodstuff and chemical eld. Indeed, both foodstuff and chemical sectors act as general source of technologies and drive thecumulative innovations on food and energy security concerns, which have captured the most intensive attention in China's publicgovernance as well as in the series of national ve-year plans over the last three decades [60].

6.2. The intimate relationship between universities and the biofuel industry

The intimate relationship between university and industry in China's biofuel technological development is demonstratedby the two sectors' close collaborations, aimed at reinforcing the R&D outcomes derived from universities and at realizingtechnology commercialization in the biofuel industry. The forward engineering mode is based on a well-designed institutesetting, in which the technological development in process equipment, production, and storage technologies is aimed atestablishing the company's core competence through a deliberate layout on intellectual property rights. Table 6 indicates thepatenting activity in the four major companies, which correspond well with their competitive advantage on production capacity.Anhuei Fengyuan is the most active patentee with the largest production capacity while the Heilongjiang Huarun with the leastproduction owns the fewest patents numbered in China's Intellectual Property Ofce (SIPO). All these patenting activities areonly emerging in recent years (starting from 2003). We also found that the technological development in the four majorcompanies is focused on matured fermentation and enzyme technologies which are, again, in line with our empirical ndings asabove.

Strong government support for the development of China's biofuel industry is shown in numerous national economic developmentprojects, inwhich the coordinated efforts of Chinese companies, foreign companies, universities, industry associations, central and localgovernment agencies and non-governmental organizations have pushed China to become one of the critical players in the globalbiofuel industry.

This study thus provides an insight into the development of China's biofuel industry which has heavily relied on the chemicaland foodstuff technology as bases for developing its national innovation capability. It also provides a mirror for other technologycatch-up latecomer nations to understand the importance and impact of endogenous technology evolution and interdependence

The controversies suggest the numbers in favor of biofuels do not pencil out under the current state of technology. Some

1141M.-C. Hu, F. Phillips / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 78 (2011) 11301146exceptions are noted. Sugar-cane ethanol seems carbon-negative, and the potential of algal biofuel looks promising as itsexternalities are likely to be lesser though further research is needed. However, the ndings of the present paper indicate thatChina is committed to biofuel as a policy priority. We use the nal paragraphs of the paper to speculate about the context, reasons,and implications of this commitment.

Though Chinese scientists and policy makers can be presumed to be aware of (and are active contributors to) the scienticdebate (see Ref. [64]), they may combine an optimistic view of future efciency gains with a nationalistic desire to carve out anarea of international technological supremacy and control of intellectual property. For example, some contend that recedingHimalayan glaciers may exacerbate fresh water supply problems in China, but many algae may be cultivated in salt water. Chinadoes not lack for either shoreline or acreage. Its vast and varied geographywill engendermultiple, localized land-based andwater-based biofuel initiatives. Moreover, the development of processing machines that can be used locally may reduce transport costsand thus increase overall life-cycle efciency of biofuel utilization.

Developers of a biofuel industry in a transitional society such as China may also need to consider the effects beyond thosethat are directly tied to carbon emission. These effects have to do with the elements of a sustainable society such as labor rights,externalities, land despoilation, and public health. The pace of biofuel development and implementation in China will bemoderated by China's policy priorities as well as by its growing endogenous technology capabilities in the chemical and foodstuff

elds.

Byimplicuncertoppor

Ackno

Theand vahelp frchemimetre, it can become more extensive but not cheaper. If not false, the idol of biomass is not sustainable on the scale needed andwill not contribute to decarbonisation. Biomass may photosynthesise but it is not green.for building an emerging industry such as biofuels. Nevertheless, the wide applications of renewable energy including biofuels areundoubtedly and largely not only dependent on the techno-economic paradigm but also driven by the adoption of political andsocial instructions as a whole. A limitation of this paper is its focus on the techno-economic paradigm without a detailedinvestigation of the socialpolitical aspects of the development of biofuels in China. We wish to partially bridge this gap by meansof a brief discussion of the latter, as follows.

6.3. Emerging biofuel technology in China's transitional society

Recent literature has reected a sceptical re-evaluation of biofuels, with criticism directed at questions of energy budget, waterbudget [61], disruption of the soil nutrient cycle by removal of crop residue for biofuel production [62], economies of scale, socialexploitation (e.g., poor wages and labor standards in the Indonesian palm oil industry) [63], and externalities including indirectemissions [64], competition with food crops, and the health effects of concentrated mycotoxins in the by-products of biofuelprocessing [62]. In addition, arguing in favor of nuclear energy, Ausubel [63] emphasizes biofuels' resistance to economies of scale andstates that:

.. in biomass the lack of economies of scale loom large. Because more biomass quickly hits the ceiling of watts per square

Table 6Patenting activity in the SIPO and production output in the four major biofuel companies.Source: [43]; SIPO search and compiled by the authors.

Invention New model New design Production output (million ton/year) 2007

Anhui BBCA Biochemical 29 1 0 0.50Henan Ten Guan Ethanol 19 11 3 0.45Ji Lin Fuel Alcohol 3 3 5 0.40Heilongjiang Huarun Alcohol 1 0 1 0.20

Note: SIPO has divided the patents into three types: (1) invention type refers the most novel innovation (which is equivalent to the utility patent in the USPTO),(2) new model represents the application-oriented innovation, and (3) new design reects innovation regarding visual appearance.utilizing endogenous technology capability embedded in the national innovation capacity, this study highlights publications for other technology catch-up latecomers attempting to build an emerging industry while facing technologyainty in a transitional society. Along with the mentioned geographical, social and political factors, China is gaining antunity to leverage its biofuel industry into a position of international supremacy in this technological area.

wledgments

rst authorwould like to acknowledge thenancial support from theNational Science Council (NSC-99-2410-H-007-005-MY3)luable suggestions from Prof John Mathews during the preparation of this paper. The authors are also grateful for the technicalom the Center for Energy and Environmental Research, National Tsing Hua University, for clarication and correction on thecal related terminologies.

Appendix AGlobal oil production and consumption, by region, 19972007.Source: BP Statistical Review (2008).

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Prod Cons Prod Cons Prod Cons Prod Cons Prod Cons Prod Cons Prod Cons Prod Cons Prod Cons Prod Cons Prod Cons

North America 670 1012(84%) a

668 1033 639 1058 651 1071 652 1072 660 1071 670 1092 667 1135 645 1139 647 1130 643 1135(83%) a

South and CentralAmerica

329 220 350 227 338 227 345 226 340 231 334 229 318 222 338 228 347 236 345 240 333 252

EU and Eurasia 689 936 687 942 700 935 725 928 747 934 786 933 819 941 850 953 845 958 848 969 861 949Asia 371 944

(21%) b369 920

(21%) b365 963

(22%) b381 992

(23%) b377 993

(23%) b378 1022

(24%) b373 1059

(26%) b377 1123

(28%) b378 1136

(29%) b378 1159

(30%) b379 1185

(31%) b

Middle East 1051 212 1111 215 1079 219 1141 226 1111 230 1039 238 1123 248 1193 261 1215 272 1224 281 1202 294Africa 370 109 364 113 360 116 371 116 374 116 378 118 398 120 441 124 467 130 473 132 489 138World Total 3480 2489 3549 2530 3481 2555 3614 2567 3601 2583 3575 2589 3701 2623 3866 2701 3897 2735 3915 2752 3907 1633

a The number of percentage represents the consumption share of the US in North American region.b The number of percentage represents the consumption share of China in Asian region.

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Appendix B-1.The 95 identied biofuel related international patent classications (4-digit).Source: EPO.

IPCs Denitions IPCs Denitions IPCs Denitions IPCs Denitions

A01H 1 Processes for modifyinggenotypes

B01J 8 Chemical or physicalprocesses in general,conducted in thepresence of uids andsolid particles;apparatus for suchprocesses

C07C 55 Saturatedcompounds havingmore than onecarboxyl groupbound to acycliccarbon atoms

C08F 8 Chemicalmodication byafter-treatment

C12N 15 Mutation orgeneticengineering;DNA or RNAconcerninggeneticengineering,vectors.

A01H 5 Flowering plants, i.e.angiosperms

B02B 1 Preparing grain formilling or likeprocesses

C07C 67 Preparation ofcarboxylic acid esters

C08L 99 Compositions ofnaturalmacromolecularcompounds or ofderivativesthereof notprovided for ingroups

C12P 1 Preparation ofcompounds orcompositions,not providedfor in groups

A01H 9 Pteridophytes, e.g. ferns,club-mosses, andhorse-tails

B02B 5 Grain treatment nototherwise providedfor

C07C 69 Esters of carboxylicacids; Esters ofcarbonic orhaloformic acids

C09F 7 Chemicalmodication ofdrying oils

C12P 3 Preparation ofelements orinorganiccompoundsexcept carbondioxide

A01H 13 Algae B02C 9 Other millingmethods or millsspecially adapted forgrain

C07D 211 Heterocycliccompoundscontaininghydrogenatedpyridine rings, notcondensed withother rings

C09J 103 Adhesivesbased on starch,amylose oramylopectin o

C12P 5 Preparation ofhydrocarbons

A23C 9 Milk preparations; milkpowder or milk powderpreparations

B02C 19 Other disintegratingdevices or methods

C07D 307 Heterocycliccompoundscontaining ve-membered ringshaving one oxygenatom as the only ringhetero atom

C10L 1 Liquidcarbonaceousfuels

C12P 7 Preparation ofoxygen-containingorganiccompounds

A23D 9 Other edible oils or fats,e.g. shortenings andcooking oils

B09B 3 Destroying solidwaste ortransforming solidwaste

C07D 311 Heterocycliccompoundscontaining six-membered ringshaving one oxygenatom as the onlyhetero atom,condensed withother rings

C10L 5 Solid fuels C12P 13 Preparation ofnitrogen-containingorganiccompounds

A23J 1 Obtaining proteincompositions forfoodstuffs; bulk openingof eggs and separationofyolks from whites

B30B 11 Presses speciallyadapted for formingshaped articles frommaterial in particulateor plastic state.

C07F 9 Compoundscontaining elementsof the 5th Group ofthe Periodic System

C11B 1 Production offats or fatty oilsfrom rawmaterials

C12P 19 Preparation ofcompoundscontainingsaccharideradicals

A23L 1 Foods or foodstuffs;their preparation ortreatment

C01B 31 Carbon; compoundsthereof

C07G 17 compounds ofunknownconstitution

C11B 3 Rening fats orfatty oils

C12P 21 Preparation ofpeptides orproteins

A23K 1 Animal feeding-stuffs C02F 9 Multistage treatmentofwater,wastewater,or sewage

C07H 15 Compoundscontaininghydrocarbon orsubstitutedhydrocarbon radicalsdirectly attached tohetero atoms ofsaccharide radicals

C11C 1 Preparation offatty acids fromfats, fatty oils,or waxes;rening thefatty acids

C12P 39 Processesinvolvingmicro-organisms ofdifferentgenera in thesame process,simultaneously

A61K 48 Medicinal preparationscontaining geneticmaterial which isinserted into cells of theliving body to treatgenetic diseases; GENEtherapy

C02F 11 Treatment of sludge;devices therefore

C07H 19 Compoundscontaining a heteroring sharing

C11C 3 Fats, oils, or fattyacids bychemicalmodication offats, oils, or fattyacids obtainedtherefrom

C12Q 1 Measuring ortestingprocessesinvolvingenzymes

(continued on next page)

1143M.-C. Hu, F. Phillips / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 78 (2011) 11301146

(continued)

IPCs Denitions IPCs Denitions IPCs Denitions IPCs Denitions

B01D 1 Evaporating C07B 61 General methods oforganic chemistry

C07H 21 Compoundscontaining two ormoremononucleotideunits

C12C 11 Fermentationprocesses forbeer

C12R 1 Processes usingmicro-organisms

B01D 3 Distillation or relatedexchange processes inwhich liquids arecontacted with gaseousmedia

C07C 1 Preparation ofhydrocarbons fromone or morecompounds, none ofthem being ahydrocarbon

C07K 1 General methods forthe preparation ofpeptides

C12G 1 Preparation ofwine orsparkling wine

C13D 1 Production ofsugar, i.e.sucrose andjuices

B01D 5 Condensation of vapors;recovering volatilesolvents bycondensation

C07C 2 Preparation ofhydrocarbons fromhydrocarbonscontaining a smallernumber of carbonatoms

C07K 4 Peptides having up to20 amino acids in anundened or onlypartially denedsequence; derivativesthereof

C12G 3 Preparation ofother alcoholicbeverages

C13K 1 Glucose

B01D 13 Processes of separationemploying semi-permeable membranes

C07C 6 Preparation ofhydrocarbons fromhydrocarbonscontaining a differentnumber of carbonatoms

C07K 14 Peptides havingmorethan 20 amino acids;gastrins;somatostatins;melanotropins; andderivatives thereof

C12L 11 Cellar tools C25B 1 Electrolyticproduction ofinorganiccompounds ornon-metals

B01D 17 Separationof liquids, notprovided for elsewhere,e.g. by thermal diffusion

C07C 27 Processes involvingthe simultaneousproduction of morethan one class ofoxygen-containingcompounds

C07K 17 Carrier-bound orimmobilizedpeptides

C12M 1 Apparatus forenzymology ormicrobiology

D21C 3 Pulpingcellulose-containingmaterials

B01D 61 Processes speciallyadapted formanufacturing semi-permeable membranesfor separation processes

C07C 29 Preparation ofcompounds havinghydroxy or O-metalgroups bound to acarbon atom notbelonging to a six-membered aromaticring

C08B 11 Preparation ofcellulose ethers

C12N 1 Micro-organisms, e.g.protozoa; andcompositionsthereof

G01N33

Investigating oranalyzingmaterials byspecicmethods notcovered by theprecedinggroups

B01D 71 Semi-permeablemembranes forseparation processes orapparatus characterizedby the material

C07C 31 Saturated compoundshaving hydroxy or O-metal groups boundto acyclic carbonatoms

C08B 30 Preparation of starch,degraded or non-chemically modiedstarch, amylose, oramylopectin

C12N 5 Undifferentiatedhuman, animalor plant cells, e.g.cell lines;tissues;cultivation ormaintenancethereof

H01M 8 Fuel cells;manufacturethereof

B01F 17 Use of substances asemulsifying, wetting,dispersing or foam-producing agents

C07C 51 Preparation ofcarboxylic acids ortheir salts, halides oranhydrides

C08B 31 Preparation ofderivatives of starch

C12N 9 Enzymes;proenzymes;andcompositionsthereof

F26B 25 Details ofgeneralapplication notcovered bygroup

B01J 3 Processes of utilisingsub-atmospheric orsuper-atmosphericpressure to effectchemical or physicalchange of matter

C07C 53 Saturated compoundshaving only onecarboxyl groupboundto an acyclic carbonatom or hydrogen

C08B 37 Preparation ofpolysaccharides notprovided for ingroups

C12N 11 Carrier-bound orimmobilizedenzymes;carrier-bound orimmobilizedmicrobial cells

Appendix B-1 (continued)

Appendix B-2The 90 identied biofuel related keywords.Source: Biofuels, Bioproducts, and Biorening, http://www.biofpr.com.

Identied keywords

Acetaldehyde Chrysosporium Pre-treatmentAcetic acid Cinnamic acid PolysaccharideAcyltransferase Cyanobacteria SeparationsAdsorption Diacylglycerol FractionationAlcohol tolerance E. coli Glycerol

1144 M.-C. Hu, F. Phillips / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 78 (2011) 11301146

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Algae Enterococci GMOAlpha-amylase Enzymatic cleavage Greenhouse gasAmino acids Enzymatic hydrolysis HydrogenAnaerobic digestion Estherication L-lysineArabinose Esthers LigninAspergillus Ethylene Lignocellulosic materialBiocatalyst Extraction MaizeBioethanol Ethanol MethanolBiodiesel Expansion MicroorganismsBiogas Fats Novel enzymesBiological conversion Fatty acid OlenBiomass Fermentation PolynucleotideBiopolymer Fermentable sugars PyruvateBiosynthetic pathway Filamentous fungi Pyruvic acidBiotechnology Gelatinization Recombinant DNABeta-glucanase Gaseous byproduct Recombinant organismButanol Hydrocarbon RecoveryCorn Hydrolysis Second-generation biofuelsCellulosic ethanol Isolation StarchCellulosic material Lactic acid Sugar beetCellulose Methane Sweet potatoCatalyst mixing Polypeptides SyngasCarbon dioxide Polymerization TriglyceridesCellulases Polyesters Vegetable oilCellulolytic Purication Waste

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Mei-Chih Hu is an Associate Professor at the Institute of Technology Management, National Tsing Hua University, Taiwan (email: mchu@mx.nthu.edu.tw). Sheholds a PhD in Management from Macquarie Graduate School of Management, Australia. Her research is in the area of technology management and universityindustry-government linkages. Her papers have been published in a variety of journals including Research Policy,World Development, Technological Forecasting andSocial Change, and etc.

Fred Phillips is a Professor at the Marshall Goldsmith School of Management at Alliant International University in San Diego. He holds a PhD in Management fromUniversity of Texas at Austin, U.S.A. He also has professorships at Maastricht School of Management in the Netherlands, and at Ponticia Universidad Catlica inLima, Peru. His research interests are in the high-tech regional economic development and management education, in which a series of books and papers havebeen published in a variety of journals.

Technological evolution and interdependence in China's emerging biofuel industryIntroductionTheoretical backgroundSupply side: feedstockTechnology side: conversion processes

China's biofuels industryMethodologyData collectionMeasuresTechnological trajectory (patent family analysis)Technological interdependenceTechnological knowledge flows

Empirical resultsDescriptive statisticsTechnological trajectory (global patent family analysis)Technological knowledge flows: backward and forward patent citations

Discussions and concluding remarkThe intimate relationship with chemical and food engineering related fieldsThe intimate relationship between universities and the biofuel industryEmerging biofuel technology in China's transitional society

AcknowledgmentsGlobal oil production and consumption, by region, 19972007.The 95 identified biofuel related international patent classifications (4-digit).The 90 identified biofuel related keywordsReferences