biofuels in brazil: government policies, plans and challenges...
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Biofuels in Brazil: Biofuels in Brazil: Government policies, plansGovernment policies, plans
and challenges aheadand challenges ahead
Marcelo PoppeMarcelo PoppeCenter for Strategic Studies and Management Center for Strategic Studies and Management -- CGEECGEE
World Bank World Bank -- Energy Week 2009Energy Week 2009Energy, Development and Climate ChangeEnergy, Development and Climate ChangeWashington, DC, March 31 to April 2, 2009 Washington, DC, March 31 to April 2, 2009
Global biofuel market:Global biofuel market:expansion, land useand competitiveness
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Reproduced from Reproduced from UnepUnep, , February 2009. The environmental food crisis
WorldWorldBiofuels Biofuels todaytoday
Public policies regarding biofuelsPublic policies regarding biofuelsWorldWorld
WorldWorldAgricultural land availabilityAgricultural land availability
Source: World Watch Institute
Land use needs for Land use needs for sugarcane sugarcane bioethanolbioethanol
Brazilian Brazilian bioethanolbioethanol production: 265 thousands b/dproduction: 265 thousands b/dBrazilian land use: 2.6 million ha of sugar cane cropsBrazilian land use: 2.6 million ha of sugar cane crops
Gasoline world consumption: 20 million b/dGasoline world consumption: 20 million b/d
Global ethanol production needs for E10 => 2.4 million b/dGlobal ethanol production needs for E10 => 2.4 million b/dWorld land use needs => 24 million ha of sugar cane cropsWorld land use needs => 24 million ha of sugar cane crops
to be distributed among tropical humid Countries: Latin America,to be distributed among tropical humid Countries: Latin America,Caribbean, Africa and Southern AsiaCaribbean, Africa and Southern Asia
to replace 10% of the global gasoline consumption (E10)2005 basis
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Sugarcane producersSugarcane producers((130 countries instead of 20 oil providers)130 countries instead of 20 oil providers)
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Source: Adapted from Laura Tetti, 2005
Sources: IEA – International Energy Agency (2005)
Ethanol yields (liters per hectare)
Sugarcane Sugarcane bioethanolbioethanol productivity and energy balanceproductivity and energy balance
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Brazilian bioethanol exports
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0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2000 2001 2002 2003 2005 2005 2006 2007 2008
Source: Secex/Unica
Bill
ion
liter
s
BiofuelsBiofuels
Brazilian experienceBrazilian experience
BrazilBrazil
Renewable andRenewable andnonnon--renewable sources sharerenewable sources share
Brazil: 1.7 t/toeBrazil: 1.7 t/toeWorld: 2.4 t/toeWorld: 2.4 t/toe
COCO2 2 emissionsemissions
45,8
12,76,2
54,2
87,393,8
0102030405060708090
100
Brasil (2007) World (2005) OECD (2005)
%
Renewable sources Non-renewable sources
BrazilBrazil
Domestic energy supplyDomestic energy supply
Source: BEN 2006
14.8%
12.6%
14.6%
3.0%
37.7%
9.6%6.0% 1.6%
Hydropower Firewood Sugar Cane Other Renewable Oil&Oil Products Natural Gas Coal Uranium
Renewables – 45.8%Non renewables – 54.9%
Source: Brazilian Energy Balance 2008Source: Brazilian Energy Balance 2008
BrazilBrazil
Sources: NIPE-Unicamp, IBGE and CTC
BrazilBrazil Sugarcane cultureSugarcane culture
Source: IBGE, 2008
Country total area851 Mha (100%)
Rural propertiesarea 355 Mha (42%)
Cultivated land area70 Mha (8%)
Sugarcane cropland for fuel3,5 Mha (0.5%)
Amazon forest 400 MhaPantanal 13 MhaAtlantic rain forest 3 Mha
Farming (2007) Area(Mha)
Soya 23Corn 12Sugar cane 7Agriculture 70Cattle 200
Progress over 30 years
40,00
45,00
50,00
55,00
60,00
65,00
70,00
75,00
80,00
85,00
7576
76/7
777
/78
78/7
979
/80
80/8
181
/82
82/8
383
/84
84/8
585
/86
86/8
787
/88
88/8
989
/90
90/9
191
/92
92/9
393
/94
94/9
595
/96
96/9
797
/98
98/9
999
/00
00/0
101
/02
02/0
303
/04
04/0
505
/06
06/0
7
tc/h
a
2,50
3,00
3,50
4,00
4,50
5,00
5,50
6,00
6,50
7,00
7,50
m3 /h
a
l/tc tc/ha m3/h
BrazilBrazilS
ourc
e:
Sou
rce:
Uni
caU
nica
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000Ethanol Cumulative Production (thousand m3 )
(200
4) U
S$ /
GJ
Ethanol prices in Brazil Rotterdam regular gasoline pricelong-term trend (Rotterdam gasoline prices) long-term trend (Ethanol prices)
1986
20042002
1999
1980
19901995
jul 2005
Learning curbLearning curb
Source: J Source: J GoldembergGoldemberg
Sou
rce:
CTC
Sou
rce:
CTC
Bioethanol from sugarcaneBioethanol from sugarcaneBrazilBrazil
Energetic biomass cost = US$ 1.4/GJ (industrial countries goal for 2020)
420 industrial units (100 new ones)
>70,000 producers; ~1,000,000 jobs
Knowledge frontier expansion :genetics, biotechnologies, hydrolysis...
25 billion liters in 200825 billion liters in 20085 billion exported5 billion exported
• Large experience using ethanol as mixed fuel for vehicles (1925) ~ 5%
• Proálcool (1975):
• up to 25% of bioethanol blended in the gasoline (E 25)
• 5 million pure bioethanol powered cars manufactured
• Flex-fuel motors using the E 25 blend, bioethanol or a mix of both (2003)
• 7 million flex-fuel cars manufactured / 90% of the 2008 new car market
• Delivered by all the 35,000 Country’s fuel station
Bioethanol for carsBioethanol for carsBrazilBrazil
19251925 19751975 20032003
BioelectricityBioelectricity
2007: 1.400 MWmedios
97%
3%Outras Fontes Biomassa (cana-de-açúcar)
2012: 3.300 MWmedios
94%
6%
Outras Fontes Biomassa (cana-de-açúcar)
15% in 2020*
* COGEN (www.internationalestatereal.com)
BrazilBrazil
kW 4
G~
G~
η =86%
PROCESSOINDUSTRIAL
6.140kW 18.322KWη = 84% η = 84%
100,96 t/h
35 t/h 65,96 t/h5,7 kgv/kWh 3,6 Kgv/kWh
35,00 t/h
CALDEIRA 66 bar - 520 º CQuantidade de Bagaço 46,1 Ton/h
49,47 t/h
150 º C
110 º C
16,49 t/h
Bioethanol challengesBioethanol challenges
technological improvement perspectivetechnological improvement perspective
BrazilBrazil
Scientific and technological baseScientific and technological baseScientific publications related with the sugar cane
Pesquisa em cana-de-açúcar
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
EUABrasilSão PauloÍndiaAustráliaChina
Source: ISI – Web of Science (29/09/2006)Literature research: (TS=(sugarcane or "sugar cane" or Sacchacarum) or TI=(sugarcane or "sugar cane" or Sacchacarum) NOT TS=(alcoholism or psychiatr* or clinic or medicin*)
BrazilBrazil
Source: http://www.ifpri.org/2020/focus/focus14/focus14.pdf
Bioenergy technology road mapBrazilBrazil
GeneticsGeneticsnew varieties adapted to local soils and climate and resistent against diseases
BrazilBrazil
Biofactory: Biofactory: quickquick multiplicationmultiplication
Sugarcane of high biomass: energy caneSugarcane of high biomass: energy cane
BrazilBrazil
RecycleRecycle
HydrolysisHydrolysis
GasificationGasification
BiorefineriesBiorefineries
Next generationNext generation
Low impact mechanizationLow impact mechanization
20052005 20152015 20252025
Sugar caneSugar cane 70 t/ha70 t/ha 82 t/ha82 t/ha 94 t/ha94 t/ha
Industrial Industrial technologytechnology
l/tcl/tc l/hal/ha l/tcl/tc l/hal/ha l/hal/ha
8,2008,200 10,40010,400
3,6003,600
14,00014,000
1,2001,200
9,4009,400
6,0006,000
--------
6,0006,000
l/tcl/tc
ConventionalConventional 8585 100100 110110
HydrolysisHydrolysis ------ 1515 4040
TotalTotal 8585 115115 150150
BrazilBrazilProductivity perspectivesProductivity perspectives
(agro(agro--industrial technologies)industrial technologies)
Primary energy potential improvementPrimary energy potential improvement
Sugar caneSugar cane Energy caneEnergy cane
Productivity (t/ha)Productivity (t/ha) 7070 100100
Fiber (%)Fiber (%) 13.513.5 26.026.0
Trash (%)Trash (%) 14.014.0 25.025.0
Pol (%)Pol (%) 14.514.5 12.012.0
Total fiber (t/ha)Total fiber (t/ha) 19.319.3 51.051.0
Energy (GJ/ha)Energy (GJ/ha) 520520(12.5 toe)(12.5 toe)
1,1001,100(26 toe)(26 toe)
BrazilBrazil
WorldWorld
I foresee the time when industry shall no longer
denude the forests which require generations to
mature, nor use up the mines which were ages in the
making, but shall draw its raw material largely from the
annual products of the fields. I am convinced that we
shall be able to get out of the yearly crops most of the
basic materials which we now get from forest and
mine [Henry Ford, Modern Mechanics (1934)]
Global challengeGlobal challenge
Book in four languages launched during the International Conference on Biofuels, held in São Paulo (November/2008)
www.bioetanoldecana.orgwww.bioetanoldecanadeazucar.orgwww.sugarcanebioethanol.orgwww.bioetanoldecanne.org
Partnership: BNDES, CGEE,Partnership: BNDES, CGEE, ECLAC and FAOECLAC and FAOCoordination: Coordination: LuizLuiz A. A. HortaHorta NogueiraNogueira
Marcelo PoppeMarcelo Poppe
[email protected]@cgee.org.br
www.cgee.org.brwww.cgee.org.br
Thank You !Thank You !
Three quarters of the world's energy supply come Three quarters of the world's energy supply come from fossil fuels, responsible for large local pollution from fossil fuels, responsible for large local pollution loads and for most of the greenhouse gases loads and for most of the greenhouse gases emissions. The scale on which they are being used emissions. The scale on which they are being used will quickly lead to their depletion. The world energy will quickly lead to their depletion. The world energy consumption should grow as a result of the progress consumption should grow as a result of the progress of many of the worldof many of the world’’s developing regions. Industrial s developing regions. Industrial countries have not succeeded in reducing energy countries have not succeeded in reducing energy use without compromising the quality of life, even use without compromising the quality of life, even though it is known that this can and must be done. though it is known that this can and must be done. The challenge, therefore, is to seek renewable The challenge, therefore, is to seek renewable energy sources and to increase efficiencies in energy energy sources and to increase efficiencies in energy production and use on an unprecedented scale.production and use on an unprecedented scale.
WorldWorldGlobal challengeGlobal challenge