biofuels -- policy perspectives · biofuels-- policy perspectives ashok khosla development...
TRANSCRIPT
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Development Alternatives
Biofuels
-- Policy Perspectives
Ashok Khosla
Development Alternatives
5th International Biofuels ConferenceNew Delhi
7 February 2008
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Development Alternatives
Primary Concern
Implicit in Current Debates
Liquid substitutes for fluid fossil
fuels – petroleum and gas –
for transportation
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Development Alternatives
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Development Alternatives
Cities ….
…Roads …
… Runaway Consumption …
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Development Alternatives
Oil and gas peaks
Oil production peaks before 2020
Source: Defeyes, 2001: Hubbert’s Peak
Econ. growth (%) 0 2,8 5
Year of depletion 2260 2075 2055
Gas
Source: Meadows et al. 2004: Limits to Growth - The 30-Year Update
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Development Alternatives
Policies
Augmenting Supply
Expansion of Production
Technology Choice
Innovation
Sustainability
Optimizing Societal Outcomes
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Development Alternatives
Competing Resources
Fuel vs Food
Fuel for the Rich vs Food for the Poor
Fuel for Rich vs Fuel for the Poor
Fuel for Now vs Fuel in the Future
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Development Alternatives
Sustainability
= Equitable Access
Now and Tomorrow
Here and There
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Development Alternatives
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Development Alternatives
Calories Required to Produce
100 Calories of Biofuel
Ethanol
Corn 129
Switchgrass 145
Wood biomass 157
Biodiesel
Soybean 127
Sunflower 218
Cornell and Berkeley report
in Science
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Development Alternatives
The Likely Results of a Copy-Cat
ApproachQ
ua
lity
of
Lif
e
Years
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Development Alternatives
Poverty
900 million poor people live in Asia- 70% of the world’s poor
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Development Alternatives
Global income distribution
Each horizontal band
represents an equal
fifth of the world’s
people
Richest fifth
Poorest fifth
85%
8%
3.5%
2%
1.5%
People Income
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Development Alternatives
Erosion
Deserts growing by50 thousand square km per year
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Development Alternatives
Primate Habitat
Remaining 60,000 Orang Utans will
disappear within 15 years at current
rates of forest clearing for Oil Palm
and Other Monocultures
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Development Alternatives
Forest depletion
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Development Alternatives
Increasing water stress
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Development Alternatives
Global dry areas and salinisation
Aridity index: precipitation/evaporation
40% of the earth surface is arid: inclined to salinization
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Development Alternatives
Biofuels Policy Making --
ContextIn Isolation of Other Issues
Population Growth
Urbanisation
Consumption Patterns
Technology
Linear Thinking
Incremental Change
Current Constraints, Solutions
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Development Alternatives
Commercial Energy Use in
India
Electricity 23%
Construction 21%
Transport 18%
Industry 17%
Domestic 15%
Other 6%
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Development Alternatives
Biofuels
Solid
Liquid
Gaseous
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Development Alternatives
Liquid
Fuels
for
Urban
Systems
and
Transport
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Development Alternatives
Energy in Agriculture
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Development Alternatives DESI PowerDESI Power
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Development Alternatives
> 2.5 billion people
do not have
commercialenergy
let alone liquid fuels
or electricity
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Development Alternatives Cooking Fuel
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Development Alternatives
The50%
Bottom
of the
Pyramid
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Development Alternatives
Ipomea
*
TheShame-
lessOne
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Development Alternatives
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Development Alternatives
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Development Alternatives DESI PowerDESI Power
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Development Alternatives
Energy Efficiency Issues
First Law
Second Law
Third Law
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Development Alternatives
Energy – Which?
S u b s y s t e m – O p t i m i z e !
Who le Sys tem – S u b - O p t i m i z e ?
Remember! Biofuels
Are Only One of Several Options
Also: Conservation, Other Fuels,
New Conversion Technologies
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Development Alternatives
Policies based on Reality
Experiences
Development Alternatives
DESI Power
ZERI
OASE
Feasible and Implementable
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Development Alternatives
Experiences
– Development Alternatives
Solid Biofuels
Cooking, Charcoal
Electricity Generation
Forest Regeneration
Conservation = Energy Saving
Construction
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Development Alternatives
TARA
WOODSTOVES
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Development Alternatives
Plant Oil
Stove
Fuel:
• Non-
Edible Oils
• Kerosene
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Development Alternatives
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Development Alternatives
Plant Oils as Bio-fuels in India
• Jatropha
• Castor seed
• Rapeseed
• Karanj
• Taramira
• Palm acid
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Development Alternatives
Experiences – ZERI(Zero Emission Research & Initiatives)
Biofuels
Wood
Biodiesel
• from Oil Palm
• from Jatropha
Forest Regeneration
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Development Alternatives
savannah to forest
generates carbon sink
factor 16 in 5 years
forest created with fungus
increases precipitation
generates drinking water
forest and water generate
jobs and sustainable
communities, and more
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Development AlternativesThe Savannah in Vichada
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Development AlternativesWater is abundant but pH low
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Development Alternatives
SavannahBiofuels
Biodiversity
Sustainable
Communities
Drinking Water
Carbon Sink
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Development Alternatives
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Development Alternatives
Gaviotas
Transesterifiction
Plant
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Development Alternatives
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Development Alternatives
Experiences – ODE(Ocean Desert Enterprises Ltd )
Biosaline biomass(charcoal, energy, timber, paper, CO2 seq.,
food)
Experiments and R&D in Netherlands, Germany, Spain, Mexico, Dubai, India, Bangla Desh, Pakistan, Australia
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Development Alternatives
Greening the desert
Biosaline agriculture:
Turning wastelands into productive lands
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Development Alternatives
Scaling Up
Needs
• Product standardisation and technology certification
• Active engagement of industry; boiler and engine manufacturers
• Financial incentives linked to service delivery and performance
• Innovative financing for ESCOs
• Feed-in Tarrifs
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Development Alternatives
Research Agenda
Inventories of Oil Bearing Species
Trees
Energy Use Technologies
External Combustion
Steam Cycle
Sterling Cycle
Downscaling Existing Technologies
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Development Alternatives
Action Agenda
Develop Multiple “Crop” Methods
Create Biomass Energy Banks
Remove Complexities for Approval of
Small CDM Projects
Develop Creative CDMs:
Sequestration
Carbon Neutral Fuels
Clustering and Community Development
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Development Alternatives
Biomass Energy BanksBiomass Energy Banks
a new initiative for
• Effective aggregation of biomass resources
• Processing of primary materials
• Transaction of energy products and services
• Ensuring energy security
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Development Alternatives
Policy Agenda
Remove Subsidies that Promote
Fossil Fuel Use
Introduce Taxes to Encourage Full
Cost Pricing
Support Research
Establish Technical Support Systems
Regional Planning to Reduce Need for
Transportation
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Development Alternatives
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Development Alternatives
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Development Alternatives
Plant Load Factor %
DESI Power_EmPower partnership Programme
Electricity Price with a Pure Gas Engine
(2 units / 33 kWe each)E
lectr
icity P
rice
Rs / k
We
Biomass Cost = Rs. 1000 / ton
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Development Alternatives
Human Fertility and Energy
Use
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000
P e r C a p i t a E n e r g y U s e ( K g O i l E q u i v p e r Y e a r )
Low Medium Good High HDI
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Development Alternatives
HDI and Population
Growth
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Bil
lio
n P
eo
ple
in
3rd
Wo
rld
Current HDI Medium HDI Good HDI High HDI
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.7%
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Development Alternatives
Global Population in the Year 2050
HDI in the 3rd World:
If Low HDI (2.0%) Continues: 13.5 Billion
With rise to Medium HDI (1.5%) 10.5 Billion
With rise to Good HDI (1.0%) 8.2 Billion
With transition to High HDI (0.7%) 7.0 Billion
Several Billion Extra People
BAU
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Development Alternatives
Emerging Issues Needing
Action
• Effective Incubation
– Plant oil energy solutions
• Scaling Up of Services
– Briquetting
– Biomass gasifier power systems
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Development Alternatives
Effective Incubation
Demands
• Systems Approach
– eco-system management
– technology, production, marketing
• Service delivery at all levels
– oil production, devices
– service solutions
• Investments
– microfinance for farmers
– enterprise finance
– energy services incubator
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Development Alternatives
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Development Alternatives
Urban
Co
ng
es
tio
n
Population
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Development Alternatives
UrbanAir
Po
llu
tio
n
Income
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Development Alternatives
Sustainable Energy Services
Needed in Rural India
• Renewable Resources
• Local Access
• Efficient, Reliable Systems
• Minimum Pollution
• Affordable Prices
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Development Alternatives
Energy Services vs Fuel Type
Cooking Space Energy Convenience Water Lighting Automotive
Heating Liveli- Cooking Pumping Power
hoods ICT
Biomass
Solid Fuels(processed)
Liquid Fuels
Gasificationbased Electricity
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Development Alternatives
Production
Process for Briquettes
Biomass
Harvesting
Biomass
Chopping
Firing of
Biomass
Electrical Briquetting
Workstation
Electrical Grinder
Mixing• Cow dung
• Fine clay
• Water
Electrical
Briquetting Machine
Drying
Packing
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Development Alternatives
TARA Briquetting Extruder
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Development Alternatives
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Development Alternatives
Briquetted Fuel
is positioned as a
Clean, Convenient Solution
for Space Heating and Cooking
Users : households, commercial establishments
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Development Alternatives
Plant Oil System – a rural enterprise
Oil Extraction Press Cake Fodder, Fertilizer
Harvest
Cultivation
Plant Oil
Engine Fuel, Soap
Cooking Fuel
Plant Oil StoveProduction
Maintenance
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Development Alternatives
Plant Oil Cooking StovePlant Oil Cooking Stove
Burner of the Plant Burner of the Plant
Oil Cooking StoveOil Cooking Stove
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Development Alternatives