Biological Status Review for the Gray Wolf in Oregon and

Evaluation of Delisting Criteria

April 24, 2015

Russ MorganOregon Dept. of Fish & Wildlife

Purpose of This Briefing

To evaluate the biological status of wolves in Oregon and determine if significant

information exists to justify rulemaking to delist the wolf

under the Oregon ESA (OESA)

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Overview

History, Oregon ESA, Wolf Plan Biological Status of Wolves Evaluation of OESA Delisting

Criteria

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History Wolves were intentionally eradicated

in Oregon Wolves mostly gone from Oregon by

1930’s Last Oregon wolf bounty paid in

1946

Soldiers Soda Butte Creek-Wolf Pelt YNP 1905 Public Domain

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Wolf Recovery Reintroductions in neighboring states Experts predicted wolves would

reestablish in Oregon

B45

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Wolf Plan

Adopted in 2005, updated in 2010 Three-phased population approach

to address both conservation and management needs

Phase II prompts consideration of delisting from Oregon ESA

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Commission Principlesfor Wolf Plan Development in

2005Write management plan based on

“conservation” as required by State law

No active re-introduction of wolvesProvide relief for livestock

producers from expected wolf depredations

Address impacts to deer and elk populations

Flexibility in managing wolves while providing needed protections

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Management Flexibility?

Wolf Plan (Page 27)“After delisting and removal of ESA protections, if western Oregon has not met the conservation population objective, the Commission will continue to manage wolves in that area under a management regime that replicates Oregon ESA protections for individual wolves”

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Population Wolves established in NE Oregon in 2008,

and annual counts began in 2009. Population increasing at a growth rate of

1.41 (2009-2014) 77 wolves in 2014 in 15 known packs or

groups Minimum-observed count method

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Oregon Wolf Population

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Reproduction and Survival

8 successful breeding pairs in 2014 7 in east zone (all in NE Oregon) 1 in west zone (southern Cascades)

Estimated pup survival rate of .61 Within range of other reported pup

survival values. Oregon uses minimum-observed pup

counts, likely underestimates pup survival.

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Dispersal

16 collared-wolf dispersalsHalf left the state (emigrated)Mean dispersal distance (n=10) was 90 Mi

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Habitat

Wolves are habitat generalists and use many land cover types if prey is available

Wolves in Oregon use mostly forested area

Seasonal habitat shifts to open areas usually reflect prey distribution shifts

Wolves use both private and public land, but to date most data locations and den sites have been on National Forest lands

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Healthy Wolves?

Few diseases documented in Oregon wolves.

Parvovirus documented in 2013 Mange not detected in Oregon Lice detected on one wolf to date

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Human-caused Mortality Factors

Most documented Oregon wolf deaths have been human-caused (2000-Present)

Illegal take (5) ODFW control action (4) Vehicle collision (1) Capture-related (1)

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Criterion 1: Geography(Page 10)

The species is not now (and is not likely in the foreseeable future to be) in danger of extinction in any significant portion of its range in Oregon

Evaluation of OESA Delisting Criteria

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What We Considered

Historical Range – Most of Oregon Contracted Range – Areas no longer

suitable Potential Range – Where wolves

could live (habitat, prey, human factors) Currently Occupied Range – Where

wolves are now Extinction Risk

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ODFW, 4/2015Potential Wolf Range

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Conclusion for Criteria 1

Current areas of known wolf activity include about 12% of the state’s potential wolf range

Wolves are represented over a large geographic area of Oregon

Nothing is preventing wolves from occupying additional portions of the West Zone

Observed dispersal and movement patterns indicate connectivity

Wolves not likely to become extinctODFW, 4/2015

Criterion 2: Population Viability(Page 15)

The species’ natural reproductive potential is not in danger of failure due to limited population numbers, disease, predation, or other natural or human-related factors affecting its continued existence.

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Population Model Individual based model using

conservative inputs such as survival, emigration, territory establishment, immigration, human-caused mortality, and reproduction

Assessed two measures of population viability – conservation-failure, and biological extinction

Validated model by comparing to count data. Results indicates our model is appropriately cautious

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Model Results Wolf population projected to increase

at a minimum rate of 7% annually Overall probability of extinction is

low Baseline Model: 6% probability of

conservation-failure 1% probability of biological extinction No simulations fell below conservation

level when using Oregon observed data

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Important Model Factors

Starting population size is important in our model and risk of failure is highest in early years

Human caused mortality also important. Probability of failure was low when human-caused mortality rates (as implemented in our model) are kept below .10

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Criterion 2: Other Factors Considered

Disease Predation Genetic viability Other natural or human factors Habitat connectivity

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Conclusion for Criterion 2 Population is low but increasing in

abundance and distribution. Analysis predicts a growing wolf

population Low probability for population failure Rates of disease, predation, and

human-caused mortality has been relatively low

Wolves are part of a larger population and no barriers to connectivity were identified. ODFW, 4/2015

Most populations are not undergoing imminent or active deterioration of range or primary habitat

Criterion 3: Deterioration of Range or Habitat?

(Page 19)

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Criterion 3: Range Deterioration?

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Wolves were extirpated because of eradication effort, not because of range or habitat loss

Wolves are now expanding their range in Oregon Occur in 4,858 Sq Mi Two geographic regions

Criterion 3: Habitat Deterioration?

Human population increase not likely to affect Wolves prefer forest cover, mountainous

terrain Future human growth is projected to

occur in areas less suitable for wolves Public land ownership – land use and

forest protection regulations Prey populations are highly

regulated under other state plansODFW, 4/2015

Over-utilization of the species or its habitat for commercial, recreational, scientific, or educational purposes is not occurring or likely to occur

Criterion 4: Overutilization(Page 20)

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Criterion 4: Overutilization

Protective framework (Wolf Plan) does not change as a result of any delisting decision Capture/collaring will continue Phase I-III

Delisting does not allow any additional commercial, recreational, scientific activities.

Regulated forest management in Oregon

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Criterion 5: Adequate Protection Programs

(Page 22)

Existing state or federal programs or regulations are adequate to protect the species and its habitat.

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Wolf Plan Phase II in East Zone (Phase III as early

as 2017) Phase I in West Zone

Federal ESA

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Effects of Delisting

Near term – little change Wolf Plan phases based on zone

population Federal ESA

Most important when wolf population reaches Phase III

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Summary Conclusions Oregon wolves are healthy and the wolf

population is increasing and is projected to continue to increase

The likelihood of population failure is very low

Wolf range is expanding and is projected to continue to expand – wolves now occur in both east and west zones

There are no known conditions which prevent connectivity between existing populations and currently unused habitats

The Wolf Plan will continue to provide conservation and protections for wolves in Oregon

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Questions?

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