biomass, biofuels, and hydrogen modules: seds review
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Biomass, Biofuels, and Hydrogen Modules: SEDS Review. Max Henrion & Surya Swamy. May 7 and 8 th 2009. Biomass, Biofuels and Hydrogen Sectors in Context of SEDS. Converted Energy. Primary Energy. Macroeconomics. End-Use. Biomass. Biofuels. Buildings. Coal. Electricity. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Copyright © 2008 Lumina Decision Systems, Inc.
Biomass, Biofuels, and Hydrogen Modules:
SEDS ReviewMax Henrion & Surya Swamy
May 7 and 8th 2009
Biomass, Biofuels and Hydrogen Sectors in Context
of SEDS
Macroeconomics
Biomass
Coal
Natural Gas
Oil
Biofuels
Electricity
Hydrogen
Liquid Fuels
Buildings
Heavy Transportation
Industry
Light Vehicles
Macroeconomics Converted EnergyPrimary Energy End-Use
Biomass Sector Data Flow
Electricity
BiomassBiomass Demand
Biomass Price
Incoming Data Outgoing Data
Biofuels
Hydrogen
Electricity
Biofuels
Hydrogen
Max Biomass Supply
Biomass: Major Assumptions
• Biomass supply curves • from runs of Polysys 2006 aggregated from region to national level• Includes Agricultural residues, Forest residues, Energy crops,
excludes Soy and Corn. • SEDS uses total biomass (excluding soy and corn) for• Energy crops increase from 0 in 2007 to by2030:
• 291 Mdt/y for Baseline and • 609 Mdt/y for High scenario
• It also offers AEO Biomass supply curves as an optional alternative.
• Biomass consumed by• Biofuels (cellulosic ethanol)• Biomass to electricity, and • Biomass to hydrogen.
Projected maximum biomass:
AEO & SEDS Baseline and High
• 2006 max biomass supply is 270 Mdt/y (Million dry tons/year) (NEMS used 347 Mdt/y)
• SEDS projects increase by 2030 to 633 Mdt/y for Baseline or 944 Mdt/y for High scenario with increase in energy crops (NEMS projects 388 Mdt/y)
SEDS PolySys High
AEO
SEDS PolySys Base
Biomass supply curves
• Price of biomass ($/biomass dry ton) as a function of demand level (million dry tons/year)
• Based on SEDS/Polysys High scenario
Biomass demand by sector
• For High oil price scenario – ramps to $245/bbl in 2030, no carbon cap or RPS
Biomass: Issues and planned work
• It is not currently clear whether EERE Biomass program will support further work. We hope they will support:
• Expert risk assessment of biomass supply curves, including uncertainties about:
Land availability for energy cropsYield of new energy crop cultivars (R&D effects)Changes (reduction?) in costs for cultivation, harvesting, and transport of high-volume e-crops to production plants
Biofuels Sector Data FlowIncoming Data Outgoing Data
BiofuelsBiomass Price
Biomass Demand
Max Ethanol SupplyLiquid Fuels
Liquid Fuels
Ethanol Demand
Biomass
Biomass
Ethanol Price
Biofuels: Major assumptions
• Expert risk assessments of performance for biochemical Cellulosic ethanol production
Uses projections from a pilot risk assessment conducted in Spring 2008 by Bob WallaceCombination of expert assessments on TPMs combined from four experts and 27 runs of ASPEN+ on model of production plant for yield and costsGoal years 2030, 2050 Base, Target, and Overtarget programsZero Learning by doingFor illustration we assume Target and Overtarget R&D Programs accelerate performance by 2 and 4 years respectively, relative to the Base Program
• Default assumes $0.50/gal subsidy for ethanol for corn and cellulosic.
Projected cost of cellulosic ethanol
• Green lines are 10, 50, 90th percentiles of biochemical cellulosic ethanol costs, based on pilot risk analysis in 2008, Target R&D Program.
• Compared with corn ethanol and gasoline (high oil cost scenario), $0.50 ethanol subsidy, no carbon cap or carbon tax.
Corn ethanol
Gasoline
Cellulosic ethanol
10, 50, 90%iles
Effect of DOE R&D Programs on cellulosic
ethanol costs
• Cellulosic ethanol costs for Base Program, Target DOE R&D program, and Overtarget R&D Program (accelerating results by 3 years and 6 years relative to Base industry-only R&D.
Corn ethanol
Gasoline: High oil scenario
Cellulosic ethanol
Base, target, & overtarget R&D
programs
Cellulosic ethanol cost breakdown
• Cellulosic ethanol costs for Target DOE R&D program broken down to capital, O&M, and Fuel (biomass) costs – assuming modest biomass costs.
Fuel consumption of gasoline and ethanol
• Consumption of liquid fuels for vehicles.• High oil scenario $240/bbl by 2030. No RPS or
Carbon• Target cellulosic ethanol program, medium
cost.
Corn ethanol
Gasoline
Cellulosic ethanol
Consumption by vehicle fuel type
• Units G gge/y = billion gallons gasoline equivalent per year• Assumes DOE Target program, high oil cost, $0.50 ethanol
subsidy, no carbon tax.
Hydrogen
Gasoline
E85
CNG/LPG
Biofuels: Issues and planned work
• Add Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) policies• Extend biofuels module, using expert risk
assessments of other technologies:Redo biochemical cellulosic ethanol with improved structure and assessment protocolThermochemical methods with gasification/pyrolysis for cellulosic ethanolExpand modeling of corn ethanol cost and supplyAdd other transportation fuels from cellulosic biomass, such as methanol or butanol via Fischer-Tropsch process, and methane (biogas)
Hydrogen Sector Data Flow
Biomass
Natural Gas
Light Vehicles
Hydrogen
Light Vehicles
Biomass
Natural Gas
Biomass Price
Nat. Gas Commercial Price
Hydrogen Demand
Nat. Gas Electric Price
Biomass Demand
Hydrogen Price
Nat. Gas Commercial Dmd
Nat. Gas Electric Dmd
Incoming Data Outgoing Data
Electricity Electricity
Nat. Gas Industrial PriceNat. Gas Industrial Dmd
Hydrogen: Major assumptions
• 2008 expert risk assessmentsCentral biomass to hydrogenCentral natural gas reformingDistributed natural gas reforming (at fueling station)Base program (no DOE R&D) assumes no progress Target Program for Goal years: 2015, 2025No overtarget programZero learning by doing after 2025
• Delivery costs Developed with Frances Wood, Onlocation, Inc.based on a reduced form of the H2 module from NEMScosts reducing over time, and as a function of market penetration
Levelized cost of delivered hydrogen by
technology
Costs for central station biomass and SMR (reforming natural gas) include hydrogen delivery costs.
Breakdown of levelized costs for Central biomass
to H
• Distribution (delivery) costs dominate, but reduce over time
Hydrogen distribution costs
• Costs reduce over time from 2007 to 2017
• Costs reduce as a function of market penetration (hydrogen as a percent of total liquid automotive fuel by GGE)
• Costs are estimated separately for urban and rural areas
Consumption by fuel type for light vehicles
• Units G gge/y = billion gallons gasoline equivalent per year• Assumes DOE Target program, high oil cost, $0.50 ethanol
subsidy, no carbon cap.
Hydrogen
Gasoline
E85
CNG/LPG
Hydrogen: Issues and planned work
• Expert risk assessments in 2009Redo central station biomass to hydrogenAdd central wind turbine electrolysisAdd distributed ethanol reformerAdd learning by doing (LBD) post 2025
• Expand model of delivery costsWorking with Frances WoodBased on more detailed distribution cost modelsDisaggregate rural vs. urban more carefully based on quantities availableAdd simple uncertainty in delivery costs, based on interviews, but not formal expert elicitation