biotech valuation model

CONFIDENTIAL

Intellectual Property Valuation

Biotechnology Name

Draft 1.0

BioGenetic Ventures, Inc.1330 N. Washington St., Suite 5600, Spokane, WA 99201

April 17, 2023

copyright © 2001 Jeffrey J. Stewart & Ronald S. JohnsonThis Valuation Analysis is a strategic tool for management This document is a financial forecasting tool. The data presented is not necessarily prepared in accordance with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP). No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of any of the information contained herein. Nothing contained in this document is, or should be relied upon as, a promise or representation of future events or conditions. Recipients of this document agree that all information contained herein is of a confidential nature, that they will treat it in such confidential manner and that they will not, directly or indirectly, disclose or permit their agents or affiliates to disclose any of such information without the prior written consent of this company.

Contents:

ANALYSISValuation ParametersRevenue Forecast - PVContribution Margin - NPVValue Profile - rNPVSummary and rNPV Chart DESCRIPTION of Valuation Schedules

Model INSTRUCTIONS

A7

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A9

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A11

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A12

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A14

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04/17/2023 22:24:32 CONFIDENTIAL of 8 Pages

VALUATION PARAMETERS BioGenetic Ventures, Inc.

Biotechnology Name TECHNOLOGY VALUATION

Draft 1.0

MARKET DATANumber of Cases Forecast for Year 1 685,000,000Maximum = population of U.S., Canada, western Europe, and JapanAnnual Population Growth 0.27%CIA World Factbook, 2000. Estimated Growth in US and Europe PopulationPeak Market Penetration 5.0%Revenue Per Unit $ 100 Market Ramp Time to Peak Penetration (Years) 3 Orphan Drug (< 200,000 U.S.)? (y/n) N

NUMBER OF CLINICAL TRIAL SUBJECTSPhase 1 50 20-80; Pharmaceutical Manufacturing and Research AssociationPhase 2 200 100-300; Pharmaceutical Manufacturing and Research AssociationPhase 3 2,000 1,000-5,000; Pharmaceutical Manufacturing and Research Association

DURATION OF PHASES (YEARS)Preclinical 1 Phase 1 1 Pharmaceutical Manufacturing and Research AssociationPhase 2 2 Pharmaceutical Manufacturing and Research AssociationPhase 3 3 Pharmaceutical Manufacturing and Research AssociationFDA 2 Pharmaceutical Manufacturing and Research Association

9 Total Years of Pre-market Development

COSTSAnnual Pre-Market Patent Fees $ 10,000 Annual Preclinical Costs $ 500,000 Approximate Total Costs for 2 ScientistsPer Patient Phase 1 $ 12,000 Hollister-StierPer Patient Phase 2 $ 12,000 Hollister-StierPer Patient Phase 3 $ 6,000 Hollister-StierApproval Costs $ 1,300,000 $309,647 for PDUFA and $500,000-1,500,000+ for NDA preparation (ProPharma Partners; Covance)Animal studies supporting Phase 1 $ 500,000 SEC documents referencing 2001 surveyAnimal studies supporting Phase 2 $ 1,000,000 SEC documents referencing 2001 surveyAnimal studies supporting Phase 3 $ 1,500,000 SEC documents referencing 2001 surveyManufacturing/Marketing Costs + Markup 60%Manufacturing, 25%; Marketing, 25%; Margin, 10% (McKinsey New Venture, Moscho et al. Nature Biotech 18:719, 2000)

RATESRoyalty Rate 5.0%Discount Rate 20%VC and pharma IRR (cost of capital for biotech)

RISK MITIGATED (Entering phase)Preclinical 10%Pharmaceutical Manufacturing and Research AssociationPhase 1 20%Pharmaceutical Manufacturing and Research AssociationPhase 2 30%Pharmaceutical Manufacturing and Research AssociationPhase 3 67%Pharmaceutical Manufacturing and Research AssociationFDA 81%FDA FY 2000 Performance Report to Congress for the Prescription Drug User Fee Act

DESCRIPTION OF CONTENT:

VALUATION PARAMETERS - This page defines the variables used in the analysis.

SOURCEMETRIC

D8

Enter data only in this column (the blue cells with white numbers) and, as needed, in the "Other" line of the "Contribution Margin - NPV" page. All other pages will be updated automatically. If parameters differ from those referenced in the "Source" column, then simply overwrite the appropriate data source with a new reference. Note that if the market size must be computed from a current "dollar-size" market rather than by calculating the number of patients and the annual revenue per patient, one could simply enter a "1" in the "Number of Cases Forecast for Year 1" cell and the dollar value of the market in the "Revenue Per Unit" cell.


REVENUE FORECAST - PV BioGenetic Ventures, Inc.

Biotechnology Name TECHNOLOGY VALUATIONDraft 1.0

Annual Growth 0.27%

Peak Competitive Market Share 5.0%

Revenue Per Unit (ASP) $ 100

YEAR

Revenue Forecast 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

PRODUCT REVENUENumber of Cases 685,000,000 686,849,500 688,703,994 690,563,494 692,428,016 694,297,572 696,172,175 698,051,840 699,936,580 701,826,409 Market Share 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3%Units Sold - - - - - - - - - 8,772,830 Product Revenue - - - - - - - - - 877,283,011

ORPHAN DRUG TAX CREDITS - - - - - - - - - -

PV of Product Revenue 2,306,727,506 2,768,073,007 3,321,687,608 3,986,025,130 4,783,230,156 5,739,876,187 6,887,851,425 8,265,421,709 9,918,506,051 11,902,207,262 PV of ODTC - - - - - - - - - -

2,306,727,506 2,768,073,007 3,321,687,608 3,986,025,130 4,783,230,156 5,739,876,187 6,887,851,425 8,265,421,709 9,918,506,051 11,902,207,262

PV of Revenue 2,306,727,506

Discount Rate 20.0%

YEAR 20 Year11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Total

PRODUCT REVENUENumber of Cases 703,721,340 705,621,387 707,526,565 709,436,887 711,352,367 713,273,018 715,198,855 717,129,892 719,066,143 721,007,621 Market Share 2.5% 3.8% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 3.8% 2.5% 1.3% 0.0%Units Sold 17,593,033 26,460,802 35,376,328 35,471,844 35,567,618 35,663,651 26,819,957 17,928,247 8,988,327 - 248,642,639 Product Revenue 1,759,303,350 2,646,080,203 3,537,632,826 3,547,184,435 3,556,761,833 3,566,365,090 2,681,995,707 1,792,824,730 898,832,678 - 24,864,263,862

ORPHAN DRUG TAX CREDITS - - - - - - - - - - -

PV of Product Revenue 13,229,909,101 13,764,726,902 13,342,376,038 11,765,691,855 9,862,208,904 7,566,536,485 4,800,205,675 2,541,851,962 898,832,678 - PV of ODTC - - - - - - - - - -

13,229,909,101 13,764,726,902 13,342,376,038 11,765,691,855 9,862,208,904 7,566,536,485 4,800,205,675 2,541,851,962 898,832,678 -

PV of Revenue (Product + ODTC)

PV of Revenue (Product + ODTC)

REVENUE FORECAST - PV - This page provides a 20 year revenue forecast for the drug or diagnostic. Note that even though the revenue analysis begins in the current year, revenue is not recognized in the analysis product reaches the market. Revenue is anticipated for 10 years once the product reaches the market.

NOTE - ORPHAN DRUG TAX CREDITS: Although tax credits are not revenue in terms of GAAP, tax credits are a benefit that nearly universally impact the value of a biotechnology. For this reason we have considered orphan drug tax credits as a "revenue," or benefit, of developing this drug.


CONTRIBUTION MARGIN - NPV BioGenetic Ventures, Inc.


TechnologyAcquisition

YEAR

Contribution Margin Forecast 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

DEVELOPMENT STAGE Preclinical Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 3 Phase 3 FDA FDA Revenue

PRODUCT REVENUE - - - - - - - - - 877,283,011 ODTC - - - - - - - - - -

COSTS Annual CostsPatent Fees $ 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 - Preclinical Research $ 500,000 500,000 - - - - - - - - - Phase 1 $ 600,000 - 600,000 - - - - - - - - Phase 2 $ 1,200,000 - - 1,200,000 1,200,000 - - - - - - Phase 3 $ 4,000,000 - - - - 4,000,000 4,000,000 4,000,000 - - - FDA Fees $ 650,000 - - - - - - - 650,000 650,000 - Animal Studies 1 (1st year) $ 500,000 - 500,000 - - - - - - - - Animal Studies 2 (all years) $ 500,000 - - 500,000 500,000 - - - - - - Animal Studies 3 (1st 2 years) $ 750,000 - - - - 750,000 750,000 - - - - Manufacturing/Marketing 60% - - - - - - - - - 526,369,806 Royalty 5% - - - - - - - - - 43,864,151 Other - - - - - - - - - - Total Costs 510,000 1,110,000 1,710,000 1,710,000 4,760,000 4,760,000 4,010,000 660,000 660,000 570,233,957

Net Contribution Margin (510,000) (1,110,000) (1,710,000) (1,710,000) (4,760,000) (4,760,000) (4,010,000) (660,000) (660,000) 307,049,054 Cumulative Net Contribution Margin (510,000) (1,620,000) (3,330,000) (5,040,000) (9,800,000) (14,560,000) (18,570,000) (19,230,000) (19,890,000) 287,159,054

NPV Contribution Margin 797,853,452 958,036,142 1,150,975,371 1,383,222,445 1,661,918,934 2,000,014,721 2,405,729,665 2,891,687,598 3,470,817,118 4,165,772,542

NPV Contribution Margin 797,853,452

Discount Rate 20.0%

YEAR 20 Year11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Total

DEVELOPMENT STAGE Revenue Revenue Revenue Revenue Revenue Revenue Revenue Revenue Revenue -

PRODUCT REVENUE 1,759,303,350 2,646,080,203 3,537,632,826 3,547,184,435 3,556,761,833 3,566,365,090 2,681,995,707 1,792,824,730 898,832,678 - 24,864,263,862 ODTC - - - - - - - - - - -

COSTS Annual CostsPatent Fees $ 10,000 - - - - - - - - - - 90,000 Preclinical Research $ 500,000 - - - - - - - - - - 500,000 Phase 1 $ 600,000 - - - - - - - - - - 600,000 Phase 2 $ 1,200,000 - - - - - - - - - - 2,400,000 Phase 3 $ 4,000,000 - - - - - - - - - - 12,000,000 FDA Fees $ 650,000 - - - - - - - - - - 1,300,000 Animal Studies 1 (1st year) $ 500,000 - - - - - - - - - - 500,000 Animal Studies 2 (all years) $ 500,000 - - - - - - - - - - 1,000,000 Animal Studies 3 (1st 2 years) $ 750,000 - - - - - - - - - - 1,500,000 Manufacturing/Marketing 60% 1,055,582,010 1,587,648,122 2,122,579,696 2,128,310,661 2,134,057,100 2,139,819,054 1,609,197,424 1,075,694,838 539,299,607 - 14,918,558,317 Royalty 5% 87,965,167 132,304,010 176,881,641 177,359,222 177,838,092 178,318,254 134,099,785 89,641,236 44,941,634 - 1,243,213,193 Other - - - - - - - - - - - Total Costs 1,143,547,177 1,719,952,132 2,299,461,337 2,305,669,883 2,311,895,191 2,318,137,308 1,743,297,209 1,165,336,074 584,241,241 - 16,181,661,510

Net Contribution Margin 615,756,172 926,128,071 1,238,171,489 1,241,514,552 1,244,866,641 1,248,227,781 938,698,497 627,488,655 314,591,437 - Cumulative Net Contribution Margin 902,915,226 1,829,043,297 3,067,214,786 4,308,729,339 5,553,595,980 6,801,823,761 7,740,522,259 8,368,010,914 8,682,602,352 8,682,602,352

NPV Contribution Margin 4,630,468,185 4,817,654,416 4,669,831,613 4,117,992,149 3,451,773,116 2,648,287,770 1,680,071,986 889,648,187 314,591,437 -

DESCRIPTION OF CONTENT:CONTRIBUTION MARGIN - NPV - This analysis estimates the current value of the contribution margin of the technology. Contribution margin is defined as the net cash contribution (revenue less direct costs). We do not consider operating expenses here because overhead application rates vary considerably from one company to another.


VALUE PROFILE - rNPV BioGenetic Ventures, Inc.


YEAR

Risk-Added and Adjusted Values1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

DEVELOPMENT STAGE Preclinical Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 3 Phase 3 FDA FDA Revenue RISK MEDIATED 10% 20% 30% 30% 67% 67% 67% 81% 81% 100%

RISK-ADDED COSTS Annual CostsPatent Fees $ 10,000 100,000 50,000 33,333 33,333 14,925 14,925 14,925 12,346 12,346 - Preclinical Research $ 500,000 5,000,000 - - - - - - - - - Trials - Phase 1 $ 600,000 - 3,000,000 - - - - - - - - Trials - Phase 2 $ 1,200,000 - - 4,000,000 4,000,000 - - - - - - Trials - Phase 3 $ 4,000,000 - - - - 5,970,149 5,970,149 5,970,149 - - - FDA Fees $ 650,000 - - - - - - - 802,469 802,469 - Animal Studies 1 (1st year) $ 500,000 - 2,500,000 - - - - - - - - Animal Studies 2 (all years) $ 500,000 - - 1,666,667 1,666,667 - - - - - - Animal Studies 3 (1st 2 years) $ 750,000 - - - - 1,119,403 1,119,403 - - - - Manufacturing/Marketing 60% - - - - - - - - - 526,369,806 Royalty Splits 5% - - - - - - - - - 43,864,151 Other - - - - - - - - - - Risk-Added Total Costs 5,100,000 5,550,000 5,700,000 5,700,000 7,104,478 7,104,478 5,985,075 814,815 814,815 570,233,957

PV of Risk-Added Total Costs 1,525,057,399 1,823,948,879 2,182,078,654 2,611,654,385 3,127,145,262 3,744,048,941 4,484,333,357 5,374,017,938 6,447,843,748 7,736,434,720 PV of Revenue 2,306,727,506 2,768,073,007 3,321,687,608 3,986,025,130 4,783,230,156 5,739,876,187 6,887,851,425 8,265,421,709 9,918,506,051 11,902,207,262

Risk Adjustment 10% 20% 30% 30% 67% 67% 67% 81% 81% 100%Risk Adjusted PV of Total Costs 152,505,740 364,789,776 654,623,596 783,496,316 2,095,187,326 2,508,512,791 3,004,503,349 4,352,954,530 5,222,753,436 7,736,434,720 Risk-Adjusted PV Revenue 230,672,751 553,614,601 996,506,282 1,195,807,539 3,204,764,204 3,845,717,045 4,614,860,454 6,694,991,585 8,033,989,902 11,902,207,262

Risk-Adjusted NPV 78,167,011 188,824,826 341,882,686 412,311,223 1,109,576,879 1,337,204,255 1,610,357,106 2,342,037,055 2,811,236,466 4,165,772,542

Risk-Adjusted NPV 78,167,011

Discount Rate 20.0%

YEAR 20 Year

11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Total

Development Stage Revenue Revenue Revenue Revenue Revenue Revenue Revenue Revenue Revenue - Risk Mediated 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

RISK-ADDED COSTS Annual CostsPatent Fees $ 10,000 - - - - - - - - - - 286,134 Preclinical Research $ 500,000 - - - - - - - - - - 5,000,000 Trials - Phase 1 $ 600,000 - - - - - - - - - - 3,000,000 Trials - Phase 2 $ 1,200,000 - - - - - - - - - - 8,000,000 Trials - Phase 3 $ 4,000,000 - - - - - - - - - - 17,910,448 FDA Fees $ 650,000 - - - - - - - - - - 1,604,938 Animal Studies 1 (1st year) $ 500,000 - - - - - - - - - - 2,500,000 Animal Studies 2 (all years) $ 500,000 - - - - - - - - - - 3,333,333 Animal Studies 3 (1st 2 years) $ 750,000 - - - - - - - - - - 2,238,806 Manufacturing/Marketing 60% 1,055,582,010 1,587,648,122 2,122,579,696 2,128,310,661 2,134,057,100 2,139,819,054 1,609,197,424 1,075,694,838 539,299,607 - 14,918,558,317 Royalty Splits 5% 87,965,167 132,304,010 176,881,641 177,359,222 177,838,092 178,318,254 134,099,785 89,641,236 44,941,634 - 1,243,213,193 Other - - - - - - - - - - - Risk-Added Total Costs 1,143,547,177 1,719,952,132 2,299,461,337 2,305,669,883 2,311,895,191 2,318,137,308 1,743,297,209 1,165,336,074 584,241,241 - 42,467,299,132

PV of Risk-Added Total Costs 8,599,440,916 8,947,072,486 8,672,544,425 7,647,699,706 6,410,435,788 4,918,248,716 3,120,133,689 1,652,203,775 584,241,241 - PV of Revenue 13,229,909,101 13,764,726,902 13,342,376,038 11,765,691,855 9,862,208,904 7,566,536,485 4,800,205,675 2,541,851,962 898,832,678 -

Risk Adjustment 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%Risk Adjusted PV of Total Costs 8,599,440,916 8,947,072,486 8,672,544,425 7,647,699,706 6,410,435,788 4,918,248,716 3,120,133,689 1,652,203,775 584,241,241 - Risk-Adjusted PV Revenue 13,229,909,101 13,764,726,902 13,342,376,038 11,765,691,855 9,862,208,904 7,566,536,485 4,800,205,675 2,541,851,962 898,832,678 - Risk-Adjusted NPV 4,630,468,185 4,817,654,416 4,669,831,613 4,117,992,149 3,451,773,116 2,648,287,770 1,680,071,986 889,648,187 314,591,437 -

DESCRIPTION OF CONTENT

VALUE PROFILE - rNPV - Every biotechnology has a risk-adjusted net present value (rNPV) that is a function of the NPV of the future payoff (P), the NPV of the future costs (C), and the risk mediated (R) at each stage of development. The rNPV is calculated for each year of the drug or treatment's product life cycle.


SUMMARY & VALUE PROFILE - rNPV BioGenetic Ventures, Inc.


PV of Revenue NPV of Cash Flow Risk-Adjusted NPV

$ 2,306,727,506 $ 797,853,452 $ 78,167,011

DESCRIPTION OF CONTENT

SUMMARY & rNPV CHART - The rNPV is graphically represented as a function of time. PV of Revenue, NPV of Cash Flow, and rNPV are summarized.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 -

1,000,000,000

2,000,000,000

3,000,000,000

4,000,000,000

5,000,000,000

6,000,000,000

Risk-Adjusted Net Present Value (rNPV)

Time (years)

Val

ue

($)

04/17/2023 22:24:32 of 8 Pages

BioGenetic Ventures, Inc.BIOTECHNOLOGY VALUATION

Description of Valuation Schedules

Page 2

Page 3

Page 4

Page 5

Page 6

VALUATION PARAMETERS - This page defines the variables used in the analysis.

REVENUE FORECAST - PV - This page provides a 20 year revenue forecast for the drug or diagnostic. Note that even though the revenue analysis begins in the current year, revenue is not recognized in the analysis product reaches the market. Revenue is anticipated for 10 years once the product reaches the market.

CONTRIBUTION MARGIN - NPV - This analysis estimates the current value of the contribution margin of the technology. Contribution margin is defined as the net cash contribution (revenue less direct costs). We do not consider operating expenses here because overhead application rates vary considerably from one company to another.

VALUE PROFILE - rNPV - Every biotechnology has a risk-adjusted net present value (rNPV) that is a function of the NPV of the future payoff (P), the NPV of the future costs (C), and the risk mediated (R) at each stage of development. The rNPV is calculated for each year of the drug or treatment's product life cycle.

SUMMARY & rNPV CHART - The rNPV is graphically represented as a function of time. PV of Revenue, NPV of Cash Flow, and rNPV are summarized.

Theoretical Basis for Valuation Methodology - As discussed in detail in Stewart, Allison, and Johnson "Putting a Price on Biotechnology" Nature Biotechnology Sept. 2001, biotechnology value is estimated by a combination of risk-adjustment and discounting the anticipated cash flow.

Taking only risk-adjustment into account, the risk-adjusted value (rV) of an endeavor in which the risk changes is the payoff (P) times the current risk (R0) minus each associated cost (Ci) times the likelihood (R0/Ri) of having to pay each cost.

By extension, the risk-adjusted net present value (rNPV) is simply a time discount of each risk-adjusted factor.

Practically, it is simpler to risk-add the annual costs and include them in a discounted cash-flow analysis and only risk-adjust for current risk after discounting. That is, a cost Ci, made when risk mediated is Ri is accounted as a risk-added expenditure of Ci/Ri. Risk-added expenditures (Ci/Ri) can be added directly to a typical cash flow that is discounted normally. Finally, the NPV of the cash flow (including each Ci/Ri) is risk-adjusted by the current risk mediated (R0).

Example: A treatment has completed Phase I. $3M is needed to complete Phase II, where the risk mediated is the industry average of 30%. $50M more will be needed to complete Phase III, where the risk mediated is the industry average of 67%. The Phase II expenditures are risk-added to $10M ($3M / 30%). The Phase III costs are risk-adjusted to $75M

($50M / 67%). These risk-added expenditures are added as costs to the NPV calculation. Finally, the NPV (that now includes risk-added costs) is risk-adjusted by the risk mediated to date (in this example, 30%).

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

SUMMARY & rNPV CHART

VALUE PROFILE (& CHART)(Page 3)

Valuation During Development Stages

Valuation During Revenue Stages

CONTRIBUTION MARGIN - DCF(Page 2)

MODEL ASSUMPTIONS (Page 1) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

VALUE PROFILE (& CHART)(Page 3)

Valuation During Development Stages

Valuation During Revenue Stages

CONTRIBUTION MARGIN - DCF(Page 2)

MODEL ASSUMPTIONS (Page 1) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

VALUE PROFILE - rNPV (Page 6)

CONTRIBUTION MARGIN - NPV (Page 5)

rNPV Gradually Wanes During Revenue Stages

Revenue BeginsrNPV Builds During R&D

(Page 7)

REVENUE FORECAST - PV (Page 4)

MODEL ASSUMPTIONS - (Page 3)

n

iii RRCPRrV

000 /

n

iiiNPVNPV RRCPRrNPV

000 /

)/(0

0

n

iiiNPVNPV RCPRrNPV

of 8

BioGenetic Ventures, Inc.BIOTECHNOLOGY VALUATION

Model Instructions

DATA ENTRY

Step 1

Step 2

Step 3

Comments regarding this model may be sent to Jeffrey J. Stewart ([email protected]) or Ronald S. Johnson ([email protected]).

COVER DATA - Complete the data input on the "Cover" worksheet as directed by the cell notes on the "Cover" worksheet.

MODEL DATA - Enter the relevant metric data on the "Valuation Parameters" page (first page) under the "Analysis" worksheet tab. Do not enter any data on the other schedules (except the "other" line in the "Contribution Margin - NPV" schedule, as needed) in the "Analysis" worksheet. The data produced here are all generated as a result of the metric parameters input onto the "Valuation Parameters" page.

Please note that we have preloaded some of the data input cells on the "Valuation Parameters" page with formulas for initial ease of use. These cells are intended to be overridden with user data.

PRINT - Print either the relevant worksheets or the entire workbook. Print pages have been predefined and will print an 8 1/2 x 11 inch presentation-quality valuation package. To print all pages, select "Entire Workbook" on the "Print" screen.

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