Black Jack

… and how to win

The Game

• Played with 1 , 2, 6, or 8 French Decks • A is 1 or 11, 10-K is 10, everything else is face value • You get two cards • Dealer gets one face up card, one face down card • If dealer has A showing and you don’t have blackjack (A, any 10), insurance is

available • If dealer has A showing and you DO have blackjack, even money is available • If dealer has blackjack, you automatically lose/push main/ win insurance • If you have blackjack, you win 3/2 right away • You go first • Take as many cards as you like • If you go over 21, you lose right away • If you stop with a hand < 21, Dealer will take cards until they reach 17 or higher • If the dealer is > 21 or you are > dealer, you win!

The Game • Strategy is a

known mathematical problem.

• Given completely random cards here is correct strategy:

The Game

• Basic strategy is most commonly proven by running simulations on a few million hands and analyzing the results.

• Also some great combinatorial analysis at www.bjmath.com • Averaged House advantages of perfect basic strategy given the

many rule quirks surrounding surrender, doubling, and splitting:

Number of Decks House Advantage

Single deck 0.17%

Double deck 0.46%

Four decks 0.60%

Six decks 0.64%

Eight decks 0.66%

History of Play

• An adaptation of the game 21 (Same game, no blackjacks)

• First written reference found to a game of 21 was in 1602 by Miguel de Cervantes the author of Don Quixote.

• 21 a popular game in French and Spanish gambling houses through ought the 18th and 19th centuries.

• In the early 20th century, American casino’s started offering a bonus for an ace with a black jack

• By the 1950’s it surpassed roulette as the most popular casino table game.

Counting Systems

• How they generate an advantage • The casino’s greatest advantage is that the player goes

first (if both bust, casino wins) • The player’s greatest advantage is that the dealer must

hit 12-16 (making them go bust) • When there are enough high cards left in the deck, (10-

35% of the time), the player’s advantage outweighs the casinos advantage

• Along for the ride on this big wave of advantage are certain strategy decisions that increase the advantage a bit more when there are allot, or few, large cards left in the deck

Counting Systems

• BC or Betting Correlation: the advantage gained from increasing your bet at the right time

• PC or Playing Correlation: the advantage gained from playing correct strategy at the right time

• Level: How many different values are in the counting system. (+1/ -1 = Level 1, +1+2/-1-2 = Level 2, ect.)

• Side Counts: Some systems call for counting Aces on the side. Also, some counts are modified to take into account opportunities to place side bets such as “Dealer Bust” or “Over Under 13” that also correlate to the count

History of Counting • MIT professor and mathematician Edward Thorp first widely

published the idea that a skilled player could gain an advantage over the house in Beat The Dealer, 1966

• Thorp and Shannon discovered the original Hi-Lo counting system in 1963

• Charles Einstein in 1968 threw out Aces and 2s to create the Hi-Lo Opt 1

• A thorough mathematical analysis was released by Peter Griffin in 1979 in The Theory of Blackjack, that gave the foundation for a variety of subtle adaptations to the original counting techniques.

• First un-balenced system was the Red-7 system (still popular today) in Black Belt In Blackjack (1982), by Ken Uston

• The “Illustrious 18” strategy plays were documented in 1986 by Don Schlesinger.

• Most popular professional counting system today is the Omega II counting system (Level 2 balanced count with ace side count) by Bryce Carlson

Counting Systems

• Modern straight BJ counting systems

Card Strate

gy 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

10, J, Q, K

A

Hi-Lo +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 0 0 0 −1 −1

Hi-Opt I

0 +1 +1 +1 +1 0 0 0 −1 0

Hi-Opt II

+1 +1 +2 +2 +1 +1 0 0 −2 0

KO +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 0 0 −1 −1

Omega II

+1 +1 +2 +2 +2 +1 0 −1 −2 0

Zen Count

+1 +1 +2 +2 +2 +1 0 0 −2 −1

Legal History

• Not illegal inside the US • Use your mind only • No help from people not playing on the same table • However, it IS legal for casinos to ban you prom the

premises and charge you with trespassing should you return

• Getting beat up stopped in the 1980’s after a series of successful law suits by players against abusive casinos

• Atlantic City casinos are prohibited by a successful state supreme court case there from banning known card counters, as a result they have the hardest rules on their games

Counting Systems

• Hi-Lo Basic – Most basic balanced system out there – Requires running count to true count conversion – Generic strategy all day long

• Hi-Lo ++ – At true count +3, take insurance, don’t hit 12 ever,

surrender 14 v 10, 15 v 9 and 16 v 8, double 9 vs 3,4; double 8 vs 6

– At true count -4, hit 12 against 4, 5

• This will yield ~.3% player advantage over the house depending on number of decks, cut penetration, and skill

Counting Systems

• KO Basic – Most simple Un-Balanced count around – Memorize initial running count for the number of decks

you are against. (2 = -4, 6 = -20, 8 = -24) – Memorize pivot points for the number of decks (2 = 0, 6 = -

4, 8 = -6) – Generic strategy all day long

• KO Preferred – At running count +3, take insurance, don’t hit 12 ever,

surrender 14 v 10, 15 v 9 and 16 v 8, double 9 vs 3,4; double 8 vs 6

– At running count < initial running count, hit 12 against 4, 5

Cat…

• Casinos implement several techniques to identify counters – Dealers call out sudden large bet increases – Dealers call out extremely aggressive plays such as doubling

hard 12 or splitting 10s – High tech casinos use surveillance to track cards and bets, count

along with you, and detect if you are a winning player

• Once a counter is identified – Level 1: A stern glare from the pit boss – Level 2: Rule changes to make the game less profitable

• See list on next slide

– Level 3: Banned from playing blackjack – Level 4: Banned from the casino, it is common at this level to

(illegally) be detained and have your picture taken.

… and Mouse

• Counter counter measures – Keep playing sessions so wins are within the standard deviation of possible

“lucky” play. ~ 1 hour or less – No playing at the same casino in the same day – No playing during the same shift in the same week – Don’t withdraw money from casino atms – If you win allot, cash out the chips slowly over an extended period of time – Try to look as not young, white, American, in good shape, alone, introverted,

and/or intelligent as you can. – Lots of various disguises and acts – Down up betting strategy – If stared at by pit bosses, stare back and engage them in friendly conversation – Tip the dealers and they usually keep their mouths shut – Research target casinos in online blackjack forums before playing – Try and find ways to “Wong” without getting noticed, i.e. counting by sound

Bank-Roll Management

• A good rule of thumb for any counting technique is to expect a standard deviation of +- 500 minimum bets (unless you spread more than 1- 10)

• To play 5$ minimum you will need at least a 2500$ bank roll • To make enough to live off of, you will need to be betting ~

100$ minimum and need 50,000$ – 100,000$ in a dedicated bank roll.

• Losing streaks happen allot, winning streaks happen slightly more often

• “Kelly Betting” meaning you bet your spread on a ramp according with how much of an advantage you have. Based on the mathematical principal “Kelly criterion”, this equalizes the risk of ruin.

Lets Practice!

• New game with a side bet

• Side bet cannot exceed main bet (standard rule)

• For correct basic decisions 1 – 1 payout on side bet

• For correct preferred decisions 2 – 1 payout on side bet

• For incorrect decisions you lose side bet

• One round with cheat sheets

• One round without

• 20$ of seed money, plus whatever else you all agree to chip in, winner takes all

Good Luck!