Ontario Politics: Does Bland Still Work?

Bland Works: The Traditions of Ontario Politics in the Run Up to the 2011 ElectionJonathan MalloyCarleton University

I will have to have a new slogan: Bland works.

Bill Davis, 1980

The polls tell me Im not the most popular guy. I accept that.

Dalton McGuinty, 2011 How has Ontario politics changed in the last 30 years?Rotation of governing partiesEconomic changeShifts in Canadian federalismIncreasing population diversity

Examined through prism of political culture/political valuesSets the stage for examination of 2011 election

The Ontario Political CultureWilson (1980): The Red Tory provinceAscriptive, elitist, hierarchical, stable, cautious and restrainedNoel (1997)the imperative pursuit of economic successassumption of pre-eminence in the Canadian federationrequirement of managerial efficiency in governmentexpectation of reciprocity in political relationshipsthe balancing of interests

Historic Ontario Political ValuesLoyalty

Pragmatism (managing prosperity)

Identification with Canada1980s, 1990s Change Wilson (1997) It does appear to be the same old Ontario.

Explaining Political Change1985Poor leadership transition (rural, older image)PC division over separate school funding

1990Voter alienation and discontent (Meech, economy)Unpopularity of federal PCs

General pragmatic streak in Peterson majority and Rae govtsChanges can be explained by timing and windows of opportunity, rather than underlying value shifts

Loyalty and pragmatism remain; identication with Canada?Common Sense Revolution1995 PC victory unexpected

Tone of radical policy change

Polarization of Ontario politics; building on Rae yearsHarris: Idealogue or opportunist?

Erratic Ernie Eves

A New Ontario?Political change and polarization

Economic restructuring

Federal-provincial disputes

Growing racial and cultural diversityLoyalty?Pragmatism?Identification with Canada?The McGuinty RestorationImage of bland sincerityPlatform of stabilityPragmatic leadership and policies pursuit of economic successassumption of Canadian pre-eminencemanagerial efficiencyreciprocity in political relationshipsbalancing of interests

Reinforced in 2007 electionPC platform offered limited contrastSchool funding: retro issue with new twistJohn Tory: similar personal image to McGuinty Loyalty, Pragmatism, CanadaOntario politics again about managing prosperity and balancing interests

But increasing assertiveness within CanadaInterest in things Ontarian (Wiseman 2007)Mowat CentreFiscal imbalance issuesPopular, or just policy?

Does Bland Still Work in 2012?Minority bargaining

Drummond Report

Cuts and polarization

Continuing management problems (Ornge)

Loyalty?

Pragmatism?

Identification with Canada?

2011 ElectionEconomic downturnDecline of manufacturing

Management problemsE-healthEcotaxEnergy mega-projects

PC lead in pollsBut

Blurry ChoicesPC disconnect between tax man attacks and promises of continued/ increased spending

NDP Horwarth platform with pseudo-populist approach

Liberals relied on their stable policy approach

The polls tell me Im not the most popular guy. I accept that. All parties lacked serious plans for new economic and fiscal challenges

Campaign and election results suggest pragmatic leadership remains key

Bland worked (mostly)Does Bland Still Work in 2012?Minority bargaining

Drummond Report

Cuts and polarization

Continuing management problems (Ornge)

Loyalty?

Pragmatism?

Identification with Canada?

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