March 2020 Edition Bloomberg Commodity Outlook

Bloomberg Commodity Outlook

Bear With Us

Copper to Crude, Commodities Appear Elevated vs. the Ebbing Tide

$40-$50 WTI Crude Oil Likely Marks the Renewed Bear-Market Cage

Metals Are About a Resting Gold Bull vs. Copper on Cliff's Edge

Increasing Headwinds From the South Limit Agriculture's Upside

Prolonged Deflation Trend in Commodities, bonds

March 2020 Edition Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM)

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March 2020 Edition Bloomberg Commodity Outlook

Contents

02 Broad Market Outlook

04 Energy

07 Metals

10 Agriculture

Data

12 Performance

16 Curve Analysis

19 Market Flows

22 Performance 2

March 2020 Edition Bloomberg Commodity Outlook

Data and outlook as of February 28, 2020

Mike McGlone – BI Senior Commodity Strategist

BI COMD (the commodity dashboard)

Note ‐ Click on graphics to get to the Bloomberg terminal

Copper to Crude, Commodities Appear Elevated vs. the Ebbing Tide

Performance: Feb. -5.0%, 2020 -12.0%, Spot + -11.1% (Returns are total return (TR) unless noted)

(Bloomberg Intelligence) -- With the exception of gold, we expect the downward trajectory in commodity prices to prevail. Precedent for this year's receding tide has been declining bond yields. The coronavirus is a worthy catalyst for economy-sensitive commodities -- notably crude oil and copper -- to follow their deflationary brethren, yields. Futures are pricing for Federal Reserve easing in March, possibly 50 bps, which should help stabilize markets, but we expect gold to be a primary beneficiary. About $1,600-$1,700 an ounce should mark the metal's new bull-market cage. What was support in WTI crude oil about $50 a barrel is now resistance, with $40 at risk of breach. Copper appears on a cliff's edge around $2.50 a pound support. Commodities should require a broad-based shake out before a sustained recovery, if history is a guide.

An Ailing Market

Commodities' Path of Least Resistance Is Down. It just makes sense, in our view, that most macroeconomic-sensitive commodities will follow natural gas to multiyear lows. The unlikeness of an immediate worst-is-over transition in China tilts commodities toward having found a worthy catalyst to simply extend the decade-long bear market. Our graphic depicts the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) appearing elevated vs. enduring unfavorable price companions: declining bond yields, diminishing China GDP and the U.S. shifting to net crude oil exporter. Add in the unprecedented focus on decarbonization and a breach of the BCOM low since 2017 is simply on the path of least resistance.

Commodity Prices Appear Elevated vs. Companions

The coronavirus is not a one-off, in our view, it's part of the increasing likelihood of Peak China, advancing technology and a strong-dollar-driven commodity bear market.

Prolonged Deflation Trend in Commodities. Commodities appear in the early days of similarly depressed prices as the disinflationary 1980s and 90s, in our view. The graphic depicts the Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index (BCOM) 10-year rate of change below that of the consumer price index (CPI). In 1984, the BCOM dropped in like fashion and didn't recover until about 2002. A big difference vs. today's background is the commodity-to-CPI beta was much lower. We believe it's a somewhat spurious comparison because commodities and energy are less a factor in most inflation indexes. But the indication is clear: Declining commodity prices are a deflationary force.

Commodity Prices in Decline and vs. CPI

What is primarily different this time vs. the commodity price rally of the 2000s is advancing technology, declining China economic growth and unfavorable trends in global population and demographics.

MACRO PERFORMANCE

Commodities Appear Elevated vs. Record Low Yields

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March 2020 Edition Bloomberg Commodity Outlook

Gold Ascendant, Crude Drippy. Gold should remain atop our macro-assets performance dashboard, along with Treasury bonds, while broad commodities, crude oil and copper languish. Declining bond yields and depreciating industrial-commodity prices are part of the deflationary trend, with the coronavirus an acceleration catalyst, in our view. The margin-call-related pullback in gold at the end of February to below $1,600 an ounce should place it on a firmer footing for appreciation. Fundamentals are quite favorable for the precious metal, and the overbought condition is being alleviated.

Hibernating bear markets is our takeaway for crude oil, copper and broad commodities. The Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index is ending February only slightly below (about 6%) its five-year average and well above the 2016 low (almost 24%).

SECTOR PERFORMANCE Commodities' 2019 Zig Set for More Zag. Broad commodities have basically taken back last year's rally, indicating 2019 was a dead-cat bounce, in our view. Oversupplied energy should remain near the bottom of our sector- performance dashboard, with precious metals on the top. Copper teetering on key support at the end of the month places industrial metals at greater risk of following energy down than recovering. We see little to reverse the trends represented by the one-year changes -- precious metals up about 16% vs. most other sectors languishing. Record Brazil soybean production and the plunging real are primary agriculture headwinds.

One-Year Trends Set to Prevail Favoring Gold

Critical levels in March are $40-$50 a barrel in WTI crude oil and $2.50-$2.80 a pound in copper. We expect risks are tilted towards breaching support rather than indicating renewed strength.

Energy (Index weight: 29% of BCOM) Performance: Feb. -11.6%, 2020 -24.7% , Spot -23.1% *Note index weights are the 2018 average.

Adjusting to a Lower Plateau $40-$50 WTI Crude Oil Likely Marks the Renewed Bear-Market Cage. The February revisit of multiyear natural gas and crude oil lows sustains our view of continued bearish price sentiment in energy markets, which are notable for trading bounces. S&P 500 downside should be limited below 3,000, while the energy sector's link to bonds favors a downward price tilt within a $40-$50 WTI range. WTI Transitioning to $50-a-Barrel Resistance. Crude oil should find some buoyancy as it approaches the bottom of its trading range, but we believe the bigger picture remains unfavorable, with one-year lows at the end of February indicative of an enduring bear. Elevated equities and declining bond yields are typically problematic for oversupplied West Texas Intermediate. Linked on a macroeconomic basis, the S&P 500's 12-month rate-of-change appears to be in the early days of retreating from a decade high. The crude oil market hasn't typically bottomed until that annual stock-market measure dips toward zero. Crude Oil Far From Bottom If Equities a Guide

The $50-a-barrel WTI level has been a key pivot and provided initial support this year, until bond yields reached new lows and the stock market began its sharp decline. Crude Oil's Hibernating Bear Market. Crude oil looks to be a wheel rolling downhill, in our view. The graphic depicts West Texas Intermediate futures appearing elevated vs. primary companions -- declining China GDP and bond yields, and the U.S. morphing into a net crude-oil exporter. Absent an unlikely reversal in these seemingly entrenched trends, the oil low from 2016 appears at risk.

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March 2020 Edition Bloomberg Commodity Outlook

Crude Oil Appears Elevated vs. Key Companions

Department of Energy estimates show U.S. net exports approaching 3 million barrels by the end of 2021 vs. trivial imports in 2019. For comparison, in December, OPEC targeted cuts of 500,000 barrels a day. China has taken the role of the largest crude-oil importer from the U.S.

Energy Price Trends Are Deflationary. Using the past 10 years as a guide, energy prices are elevated vs. declining bond yields and the advancing dollar, in our view. The graphic depicts the U.S. Treasury 30-year yield and trade-weighted broad dollar at levels consistent with the Bloomberg Energy Spot Subindex near its 2016 nadir, on a 10-year autoscale basis. Given the entrenched downtrend inyields and energy prices, along with the strengtheningdollar, we see little reason to not just stay the course. Thisdecade's increasing focus on decarbonization adds pressureto petroleum prices.

Trends Are Unfriendly for Crude Oil, Inflation

Relative to most other asset classes, commodities have a superior history of providing a greater than one-to-one positive relationship with inflation. The annual beta of the energy index to CPI is about 24 since 1991.

Population, Demand, Supply and Lower Crude. Declining population growth, slack demand and robust supply portend further deflation for crude-oil prices in the 2020s, in our view. It's nothing new. The entrenched trends of the past decade

are unlikely to reverse and may accelerate. Our graphic depicts the lowest 10-year rate of global population growth in our database (since 1950). Following the regression line to 2030, population growth will drop to about 8% from 12% in 2019. Incremental crude-oil demand is about the same as 30 years ago, yet production is increasing rapidly. A primary supply metric is the U.S. -- formerly the world's largest crude oil importer -- shifting to a net exporter.

Deflationary Crude Oil Trends for the 2020's

The 10-year average of crude prices turned down in 2014 and we see little reason for it to shift upward, absent some sustained supply shock.

Nothing to See Here as Gold Rises, Oil Falls. Gold prices are benefiting from increasing tailwinds, while it's the opposite for crude oil. Our graphic depicts oil in an entrenched bear market, with the 2018 high at risk of an outcome similar to peaks in 2008 and 2014. Gold, on the other hand, is accelerating an enduring uptrend that resumed with the first Federal Reserve interest-rate hike in 4Q15. Now that the Fed is easing, gold is gaining additional support on the back of increasing debt-to-GDP and declining bond yields, and attaining new highs in terms of most major currencies.

Gaining Momentum - Oil Down, Crude Oil Up

Decarbonization is a primary crude-oil headwind. A sustained supply shock should be needed to boost prices. Our analysis features 50-week averages to focus on the trends and minimize noise.

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March 2020 Edition Bloomberg Commodity Outlook

Gold vs. Crude Oil Catching Up to Companions. The ratio of gold vs. crude oil has crossed the threshold toward further appreciation favoring the metal, in our view. The number of barrels of WTI that equal an ounce of gold has extended above the 2017-18 peak. Our graphic depicts the ratio advancing as a matter of time, unless stock-market volatility remains subdued for an extended period or the Fed funds rate increases. The oil-to-gold ratio, Fed fund futures prices and 100-week average of the CBOE S&P 500 VIX Volatility Index (VIX) all bottomed about the same time in 4Q18.

Time Decay Favors Advancing Gold vs. Oil

Oversupplied crude turned lower in 2018, and the 2019 recovery appears as a dead-cat bounce. Gold is in the opposite situation, benefiting from plunging bond yields and the Federal Reserve's shift to easing. A peak dollar would add fuel. PERFORMANCE DRIVERS Crude Oil Is Following Natural Gas Lower. The prospect of a lingering coronavirus overhang will probably contribute to continued energy-price declines. Based on sector history, crude oil will eventually follow natural gas prices lower. Indicating unfavorable fundamentals, the benchmark natural-gas future breached last year's low in mid-January, before the coronavirus came to the forefront. Ending February near the 2016 gas low portends similar for crude oil. Both natural gas and crude oil are oversupplied, notably in the U.S., and the outbreak is a worthy catalyst to aggravate previously moribund global demand.

Next Big Risk for Crude Oil: Lower Equities

WTI closed as low as $26.16 a barrel in February 2016. Trading at about $46 at the end of February, $40 should mark a good initial support level for crude oil. Front Energy Futures to February 28

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March 2020 Edition Bloomberg Commodity Outlook

Metals All (Index weight: 35% of BCOM) Performance: Feb.-2.7%, 2020 -4.8%

Industrial (Index weight: 19.0% of BCOM. Performance: Feb. -2.6%, 2020 -9.7%, Spot -9.5%

Precious (Index weight: 16.1% of BCOM. Performance: Feb.-2.9%, 2020 +0.3, Spot +0.4%

Gold Up, The Rest Down Metals Are About a Resting Gold Bull vs. Copper on Cliff's Edge. The coronavirus outbreak should accelerate prevailing bullish gold and bearish industrial-metal trends, in our view. Having retraced the big plunge of 2013 and sitting near $1,700 an ounce, some back-and-fill in gold is likely. About $1,600 an ounce is initial support, and margin-call headwinds akin to 2008 from sinking risk assets should prove temporary for gold. Increasingly negative real yields, rising stock-market volatility and Federal Reserve easing represent a firming base for the precious metal.

We expect headwinds to prevail in copper and industrial metals, which will continue to follow bond yields lower, if history is a guide. Base-metal prices appear elevated vs. yields, their deflation-indicating companions. Copper is set to transition below key support of $2.50 a pound. Precious - Gold vs. All Others $1,600-$1,700 Gold Likely to Mark Renewed Bull-Market Cage. Having revisited good resistance of about $1,700 an ounce, the gold bull is set for some rest. Similar to the 2008 stock-market swoon, we expect headwinds from margin calls to prove temporary for the metal. Resumed Federal Reserve easing, negative real yields and recovering stock-market volatility are primary factors to sustain gold's upward trajectory. Negative Real Yields and Appreciating Gold. Gold will eventually breach $1,700 an ounce resistance, in our view, but it may take some base building to make the next step of the stair-step rally. Negative real yields -- notably in the U.S. -- represent an underlying bid in the quasi-currency. Our graphic depicts gold having fully retraced the 2013 plunge, and a primary reason to extend that year's highs -- the spread in U.S. Treasury bond yields less inflation -- has plunged to almost negative 80 bps. For comparison, the 2008 and 2011 extremes reached minus 130 bps and 110 bps, respectively.

Gold Bull Set to Rest Before Breaching $1,700

Plunging bond yields indicate deflation, and we expect the Fed to act via easing. It was the first rate cut in July that launched gold above $1,400, which had held resistance for about five years. For gold to not appreciate, some unforeseen forces would need to flip current trends. Gold Gaining Upper Hand vs. Equities. Gold has returned to a key threshold vs. the stock market, and we expect the metal to prevail. Plunging bond yields are a primary companion favoring gold. Our graphic depicts the strong tendency for the ratio of gold vs. the S&P 500 to follow bond prices and the wide disparity favoring the metal. The gold-to-S&P 500 ratio appears in the early days of breaching its halfway mark since the first rate hike in December 2015. Gold/S&P 500 Set to Follow Bond Prices Higher

New low yields portend the gold-to-S&P 500 ratio piercing the 2016 high near 0.65. Compared with a ratio of about 0.55 on Feb. 28, if gold steadies at about $1,600 an ounce, the S&P 500 would have to return to near the 2018 low of about 2,500 for the metric to close in on 0.65.

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March 2020 Edition Bloomberg Commodity Outlook

Margin-Call Pressure Likely Temporary for Gold, Similar to 2008. Gold's margin-call headwinds should be short-lived, in our view, similar to the 2008 stock-market swoon. The accelerating decline in equities is triggering liquidation of elevated net-long futures positions in the metal. Our graphic depicts the swift correction to below the S&P 500's 50-week mean, where the drag on gold is similar to whathappened during the financial crisis over a decade ago.Gold's favorable fundamentals -- increasingly negative realyields, rising equity volatility and Federal Reserve easing --should prevail, with limited downside below $1,600 anounce.

Gold Likely Caged Between $1,600-$1,700

Gold is one of the few assets to sustain a 2020 profit. It's up about 5% to midday Feb. 28, compared with a 5.8% gain in 2008.

A Firming Foundation for Gold. The basis for a sustained structural gold bull market is solidifying, in our view. The graphic depicts the metal appearing low vs. the percentage of steadily increasing U.S. debt-to-GDP. In combination with declining real yields, this historically oxymoronic trend -- increasing debt-to-GDP and decreasing yields -- is unlikely to find an end-game that doesn't involve appreciating U.S. gold prices. Currency debasement is a primary influence on advancing gold prices, yet the dollar-denominated price is appreciating despite the trade-weighted broad dollar near all-time highs.

Gold Appears Low to Debt/GDP, Real Yields

An additional tailwind for gold prices is the limited downside from U.S. stock-market volatility near historic lows.

Base Metals Ebbing Tide

Copper's Bigger Risk Is Breaching $2.50/Pound-$5,500/Ton Support. Copper and industrial metals are elevated at the end of February, notably vs. their deflation-indicating companions, declining bond yields. Base metals appear as a well-rested bear market ripe to exit hibernation and in need of a worthy -- yet unlikely -- catalyst to do otherwise.

Industrial-Metals Bear Market Is Well-Rested. Industrial metals will continue to follow bond yields lower, in our view. Copper is ending February on the razor's edge of support at about $2.50 a pound ($5,500 a ton). There appears little to stop the red metal from sustaining below this level for most of the remainder of 2020. Trends in industrial metals were unfavorable before the coronavirus came to the forefront, and it's a key catalyst for acceleration. Our graphic depicts the Bloomberg Industrial Metals Index ending February at a three-year low and set to continue following bond yields.

The Unlikely Is Needed to Boost Industrial Metals

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March 2020 Edition Bloomberg Commodity Outlook

A primary question is what it might take to reverse the substantial headwinds for base metals amid the virus-related global economic slowdown. We see little potential for worthy tailwinds, notably as declining bond yields have been a precedent indicator.

Macroeconomic Trends Unfriendly for Copper. Copper is at elevated risk of revisiting its 2016 low, in our view. The graphic depicts some key companions -- China GDP, the value of the Chilean peso vs. the dollar and U.S. Treasury bond yields -- appearing quite low vs. the copper price. After peaking in 2011, copper's 2018 high looks like a dead-cat bounce amid an entrenched downtrend. Time decay should work against the metal's price as some combination of unlikely reversal in these macroeconomic drivers is necessary for price recovery, if history is a guide.

Lower Copper Appears as a Matter of Time

China is the largest importer of refined copper and Chile the top exporter. The industrial metal has a strong history of companionship with bond yields, notably vs. gold.

PERFORMANCE DRIVERS

Gold Gaining Performance Lead. Gold and precious metals will continue outperforming most commodities and risk assets, in our view. It's unlikely the worst of the coronavirus effects on the global economy will subside soon, and thus precious metals should maintain the upper hand. On a stand-alone basis, our performance scorecard depicts gold showing divergent strength vs. the appreciating dollar. We expect the 2016 low in the industrial metals to be at risk of a retest, on the back of plunging bond yields. The Bloomberg Industrial Metals Spot Subindex is ending February at a three-year low. About another 20% decline would revisit the 2016 trough.

It's Gold vs. Everybody Else

Copper leaves February near key support of about $2.50 a pound ($5,500 a ton). The greater risk for the rest of the year is if these levels transition into resistance.

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March 2020 Edition Bloomberg Commodity Outlook

Agriculture (Index weight: 30% of BCOM) Performance: Feb.-5.3%, Spot -5.4%

Grains (Index Weight: 24% of BCOM) Performance: Feb. -4.1%, Spot -4.2%

Softs (Weight: 6% of BCOM) Performance: Feb. -5.0%, Spot -5.1%

Strong Southern Headwinds

Increasing Headwinds From the South Limit Agriculture's Upside. Another year of strong production in Brazil and Argentina and new lows in their currency values limit the upside for dollar-denominated agriculture prices, in our view. Seemingly entrenched South American trends are pushing U.S. grain output and potential exports to China toward the back seat of pricing-outlook factors.

Steady Southern Hemisphere Agriculture Headwinds. An excess of low-cost soybeans, corn, sugar and coffee from Brazil and Argentina will continue to impede price gains in agricultural commodities, in our view. Sustained reversals in the Brazilian real's decline and the nation's rapidly increasing soybean production are unlikely, limiting potential price appreciation from an adverse weather-production year in the U.S. Given the headwinds from the Southern Hemisphere, corn futures are unlikely to go much beyond $4 a bushel, while $9.50 in soybeans will mark good resistance during the Northern Hemisphere's growing season.

U.S. Growing Season Upside Risks Muted by Brazil

Brazil has traded places with the U.S. as the go-to for soybeans. The country will account for over 50% of global soybean exports in 2020 vs. about 30% for the U.S., according to USDA estimates. The U.S. was the top exporter 10 years ago.

Brazil Is Primary Soybean-Price Headwind. Some combination of a reversal in rapidly increasing Brazil soybean production or the declining value of the real is necessary for a sustained recovery in soybean prices, in our view. The benchmark soybean future is supported above last year's low of about $8 a bushel, but breaching $10 resistance is unlikely until the primary price headwind, Brazil, is alleviated. Even if China imports a large amount of U.S. beans, the overhang of low-priced supply from Brazil will attract most import demand.

Record Brazil Soybean Production, Weak Real

Our graphic depicts Brazil soybean production on pace for about 125 million tons this year, the most ever. Compared with 10 years ago, the nation's output is up about 90%, vs. 5% in the U.S. Absent a sharp U.S. production-cut year, soybean prices have limited upside above the five-year mean of about $9.50.

Sugar Prices Vulnerable to More of the Same. The bottom line for sugar, in our view, is prices are vulnerable to decline on the back of extended managed-money future net-long positions and the depreciating Brazilian real. Having recovered from the most extreme net short at the end of 2019, the pendulum appears to have swung too far in the other direction. Our graphic depicts net longs to Feb. 11 at the most extreme in about three years, with prices near the 4Q17 peak. The entrenched 10-year sugar decline in sync with the value of the real tilts our bias downward on bounces.

Sugar Price-Risks Tilted Downwards

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March 2020 Edition Bloomberg Commodity Outlook

A bounce has occurred and net positions appear too optimistic for sustainability. Brazil is the world's largest sugar-cane producer and exporter. Constrained supplies from Thailand, the second-largest exporter, have boosted prices this year.

PERFORMANCE DRIVERS Unfavorable Macro and Micro in Agriculture. The declining value of the Brazilian real and crude oil are key companions of weakening agriculture prices. For stabilization and recovery to occur, history suggests these more macro-orientated drivers need to reverse unfavorable trends. Approaching the Corn Belt growing season, production risks typically become the forefront of price fluctuations, but until the world's most significant commodity (crude oil) and the real can sustain recoveries, agriculture prices will remain under pressure, in our view. Agriculture Performance vs. Real, Crude Oil

A subpar U.S. production year is likely necessary for any meaningful ag-price appreciation, notably in the grains. West Texas Intermediate crude oil approaching the lower-end of its four-year $40-$70 a barrel trading range at the end of February indicates limited further downside.

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March 2020 Edition Bloomberg Commodity Outlook

DATA on BI COMD Performance - Overview Key Metrics

Historical Performance may vary from above due to delayed end date

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March 2020 Edition Bloomberg Commodity Outlook

Performance – Commodity Total Returns Key Metrics

Historical

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March 2020 Edition Bloomberg Commodity Outlook

Performance – Prices Key Metrics

Historical

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March 2020 Edition Bloomberg Commodity Outlook

Performance - Volatility Key Metrics

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March 2020 Edition Bloomberg Commodity Outlook

Curve Analysis – Contango (-) | Backwardation (+) Key Metrics

Measured via the one-year futures spread as a percent of the first contract price. Negative means the one-year out future is higher (contango). Positive means the one-year out future is lower (backwardation.

Historical

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March 2020 Edition Bloomberg Commodity Outlook

Curve Analysis – Gross Roll Yield Key Metrics

Historical

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March 2020 Edition Bloomberg Commodity Outlook

Curve Analysis – Forwards / Forecasts Spread %

Data Set

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March 2020 Edition Bloomberg Commodity Outlook

Market Flows – Open Interest Key Metrics

Historical

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March 2020 Edition Bloomberg Commodity Outlook

Market Flows – Commitment of Traders Key Metrics

Historical

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March 2020 Edition Bloomberg Commodity Outlook

Market Flows – ETF Flows (annual)

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Composite Indices * Click hyperlinks to open in Bloomberg

Feb YTD 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year 20-Year 30-Year 40-Year 50-YearBloomberg Commodity ER BCOM -5.15% -12.25% -12.79% -19.10% -31.38% -46.96% -27.62% -24.38% -52.98% 333.63%Bloomberg Commodity TR BCOMTR -5.04% -12.03% -11.05% -14.77% -27.37% -43.66% 0.58% 71.95% 162.91% 4562.41%

Bloomberg Commodity Spot BCOMSP -4.23% -11.12% -8.78% -7.87% -5.86% -11.09% 171.21% 221.65% 153.95% 1624.18%Bloomberg Roll Select BCOMRST -4.66% -11.17% -11.29% -15.15% -23.87% -34.32% 114.69%

1 Month Forward BCOMF1T -5.15% -11.87% -11.01% -13.24% -24.13% -36.75% 75.22% 2 Month Forward BCOMF2T -5.00% -11.45% -10.80% -10.37% -20.80% -34.62% 113.28% 3 Month Forward BCOMF3T -4.88% -11.10% -9.91% -10.38% -20.34% -32.26% 123.86% 4 Month Forward BCOMF4T -4.63% -10.69% -9.76% -10.05% -16.96% -26.42% 5 Month Forward BCOMF5T -4.47% -10.25% -8.74% -8.00% -15.22% -25.14% 6 Month Forward BCOMF6T -4.23% -9.91% -8.98% -7.72% -14.30% -23.56%

Energy BCOMENTR -11.60% -24.67% -26.88% -21.75% -50.56% -77.06% -70.70% -20.61%Petroleum BCOMPETR -12.08% -24.93% -18.17% -7.30% -38.39% -58.57% 1.51%Agriculture BCOMAGTR -1.59% -6.83% -4.29% -27.01% -32.75% -33.70% -27.28% -22.80% 4.29% 1312.81%

Grains BCOMGRTR -2.67% -6.69% -4.64% -25.63% -38.40% -36.23% -40.56% -47.10% -33.20% 367.14%Industrial Metals BCOMINTR -2.56% -9.69% -13.61% -8.41% -7.81% -34.97% 85.17%Precious Metals BCOMPRTR -2.86% 0.26% 14.96% 12.47% 16.74% 21.82% 323.97% 263.50% 51.88%

All Metals BCOMAMT -2.72% -4.78% -0.59% 2.09% 5.47% -10.73% 199.59%Softs BCOMSOTR -0.03% -5.01% -2.09% -35.35% -29.42% -44.83% -46.27% -35.66% -7.64% 2859.07%

Livestock BCOMLITR -6.71% -16.93% -20.71% -18.30% -29.77% -32.60% -59.46% -42.00%Ex-Energy BCOMXETR -2.56% -6.68% -3.90% -12.58% -15.26% -21.65% 36.89%

Ex-Petroleum BCOMXPET -3.30% -8.40% -9.54% -17.95% -25.33% -42.45%Ex-Natural Gas BCOMXNGT -4.60% -11.01% -7.03% -10.40% -20.42% -28.85%Ex-Agriculture BCOMXAGT -6.56% -14.25% -13.85% -9.47% -25.78% -49.29%

Ex-Grains BCOMXGRT -5.52% -13.06% -12.25% -12.36% -25.19% -46.49%Ex-Industrial Metals BCOMXIMT -5.56% -12.51% -10.49% -16.55% -31.33% -45.86%Ex-Precious Metals BCOMXPMT -5.54% -14.55% -15.76% -19.61% -34.34% -51.93%

Ex-Softs BCOMXSOT -5.45% -12.58% -11.78% -13.26% -27.67% -44.30%Ex-Livestock BCOMXLIT -4.94% -11.71% -10.44% -14.67% -27.28% -44.42%

Ex-Agriculture & Livestock BCOMXALT -6.55% -14.00% -13.25% -8.91% -25.57% -50.87%Bloomberg Dollar Spot BBDXY 1.14% 2.08% 1.65% -2.41% 3.17% 19.67%

Bloomberg US Large Cap TR B500T -8.09% -7.75% 8.80% 33.77% 56.35% 231.19%US Aggregate LBUSTRUU 1.80% 3.76% 11.68% 15.80% 19.21% 47.07% 174.49% 486.32% 1955.96%US Treasury LUATTRUU 2.65% 5.16% 12.15% 15.12% 16.97% 40.35% 155.51% 439.85% 1696.32%

US Corporate LUACTRUU 1.34% 3.71% 15.81% 21.47% 27.35% 74.43% 234.51% 647.73% 2713.21%US High Yield LF98TRUU -1.41% -1.38% 6.10% 15.30% 28.82% 101.69% 292.81% 1031.74%

Single Commodity Indices

Feb YTD 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year 20-Year 30-Year 40-Year 50-YearNatural Gas BCOMNGTR -10.37% -23.43% -50.67% -59.06% -78.33% -96.34% -99.61%

Low Sulfer Gas Oil BCOMGOT -11.98% -27.54% -26.19% -1.67% -33.31% -40.76% 107.80%WTI Crude BCOMCLTR -13.59% -26.59% -20.69% -15.68% -47.28% -72.65% -41.15% 88.62%

Brent Crude BCOMCOT -11.86% -22.96% -15.04% 3.93% -32.99% -44.08% 124.13%ULS Diesel BCOMHOTR -9.22% -26.59% -25.09% -5.60% -37.53% -45.07% 49.29% 189.94%

Unleaded Gasoline BCOMRBTR -10.15% -20.54% -3.18% -6.43% -30.00% -26.02% 113.88% 568.73%Corn BCOMCNTR -4.48% -5.96% -8.30% -28.20% -43.81% -42.99% -79.24% -85.61% -80.74% -39.41%

Soybeans BCOMSYTR 1.09% -7.57% -8.59% -27.05% -27.14% 17.78% 193.42% 223.94% 268.08% 3148.44%Wheat BCOMWHTR -5.11% -5.84% 12.92% -11.87% -36.67% -65.71% -83.92% -90.24% -88.08% -29.09%

Soybean Oil BCOMBOTR -5.22% -18.28% -9.17% -24.25% -28.42% -52.18% -14.45% -32.78% -18.35% 1534.99%Soybean Meal BCOMSMT 3.11% -1.40% -5.80% -20.09% -19.19% 104.80% 821.12%HRW Wheat BCOMKWT -3.78% -7.72% -7.45% -36.19% -59.64% -70.30% -74.58%

Copper BCOMHGTR 0.73% -9.23% -13.24% -8.17% -9.91% -31.13% 248.96% 606.90%Alumnium BCOMALTR -1.74% -6.99% -13.43% -13.91% -15.56% -47.01% -34.80%

Zinc BCOMZSTR -8.35% -11.04% -22.68% -18.26% 7.67% -17.44% 41.82%Nickel BCOMNITR -4.69% -12.81% -5.32% 10.99% -16.10% -47.64% 112.05%Gold BCOMGCTR -1.22% 2.70% 18.15% 22.25% 24.64% 31.34% 370.60% 266.51% 124.92%Silver BCOMSITR -8.94% -8.36% 3.95% -13.92% -6.83% -11.10% 167.63% 162.61% -67.04%Sugar BCOMSBTR -0.50% 8.47% 2.64% -38.25% -24.92% -58.38% 36.80% 11.37% -79.43% 135.95%Coffee BCOMKCTR 6.42% -15.66% 0.50% -42.98% -52.41% -65.64% -90.59% -85.25% -77.15%Cotton BCOMCTTR -9.59% -11.50% -16.79% -18.85% -8.38% 6.61% -71.05% -47.85% 84.60% 1026.84%

Live Cattle BCOMLCTR -10.00% -14.86% -17.41% -5.82% -18.22% -4.87% -11.60% 55.95% 615.01% 2930.14%Lean Hogs BCOMLHTR 1.22% -21.00% -26.05% -39.25% -48.62% -65.01% -89.31% -91.10%

Index Name Ticker

Index Name Ticker

PERFORMANCE: Bloomberg Commodity Indices

2020

2020

22

Composite Roll Select Indices * Click hyperlinks to open in Bloomberg

Feb YTD 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year 20-Year 30-Year 40-Year 50-YearBCOM Roll Select BCOMRST -4.66% -11.17% -11.29% -15.15% -23.87% -34.32% 114.69%

Roll Select Agriculture BCOMRAGT -1.71% -7.53% -5.65% -25.61% -30.75% -25.84% 29.35%Roll Select Ex-Ags & Livestock BBURXALT -6.00% -12.71% -13.05% -9.55% -19.90% -40.85%

Roll Select Grains BCOMRGRT -2.55% -7.27% -6.04% -23.16% -35.47% -29.96% 11.76%Roll Select Softs BCOMRSOT -0.74% -6.85% -5.22% -39.34% -32.88% -37.60% -9.52%

Roll Select Livestock BCOMRLIT -5.66% -13.34% -21.45% -24.21% -40.66% -29.08% 14.58%Roll Select Energy BCOMRENT -10.21% -22.01% -25.93% -21.66% -40.89% -65.98% 25.17%

Roll Select Ex-Energy BCOMRXET -2.55% -6.68% -4.64% -12.86% -15.39% -16.48% 123.84%Roll Select Petroleum BCOMRPET -10.78% -21.86% -17.51% -4.85% -27.46% -42.41% 207.08%

Roll Select Industrial Metals BCOMRINT -2.67% -9.74% -14.18% -9.71% -8.28% -32.49% 166.34%Roll Select Precious Metals BCOMRPRT -2.88% 0.21% 15.05% 12.57% 17.24% 22.98% 338.39%

Single Commodity Roll Select Indices

Feb YTD 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year 20-Year 30-Year 40-Year 50-YearNatural Gas RS BCOMRNGT -9.02% -22.28% -48.81% -59.42% -71.54% -92.46% -93.51%

Low Sulfer Gas Oil RS BCOMRGOT -12.25% -26.74% -27.70% -5.48% -33.63% -40.54% 125.80%WTI Crude RS BCOMRCLT -10.89% -20.62% -16.36% -6.81% -25.86% -49.51% 189.01%

Brent Crude RS BCOMRCOT -10.69% -21.02% -14.88% 4.54% -27.15% -35.46% 262.71%ULS Diesel RS BCOMRHOT -9.87% -25.60% -25.80% -12.57% -37.50% -46.90% 146.15%

Unleaded Gasoline RS BCOMRRBT -9.96% -19.66% -9.25% -4.32% -17.10% -11.52% 285.17%Corn RS BCOMRCNT -3.82% -7.00% -11.32% -26.42% -41.47% -39.72% -62.30%

Soybeans RS BCOMRSYT 0.69% -7.84% -7.27% -18.05% -15.79% 43.64% 341.38%Wheat RS BCOMRWHT -4.86% -6.23% 9.57% -18.09% -42.14% -64.81% -49.93%

Soybean Oil RS BCOMRBOT -5.17% -18.24% -9.43% -24.88% -27.83% -47.78% 23.28%Soybean Meal RS BCOMRSMT 2.92% -1.02% -4.57% -9.76% -11.32% 136.40% 1204.45%HRW Wheat RS BCOMRKWT -4.37% -8.09% -10.73% -38.08% -59.45% -68.35% -42.65%

Copper RS BCOMRHGT 0.52% -9.52% -13.60% -8.57% -10.17% -29.44% 378.05%Alumnium RS BCOMRALT -1.89% -6.80% -14.44% -16.68% -16.29% -44.18% -5.86%

Zinc RS BCOMRZST -8.35% -11.04% -23.74% -20.44% 4.87% -15.37% 106.79%Nickel RS BCOMRNIT -4.65% -12.70% -5.28% 11.07% -15.26% -44.81% 242.66%Gold RS BCOMRGCT -1.24% 2.67% 18.32% 22.45% 25.37% 32.25% 374.91%Silver RS BCOMRSIT -8.93% -8.45% 3.83% -13.93% -6.76% -9.35% 196.65%Sugar RS BCOMRSBT -1.35% 4.69% -2.07% -46.40% -33.47% -55.85% 157.98%Coffee RS BCOMRKCT 5.79% -15.61% -2.02% -43.98% -53.03% -62.26% -85.05%Cotton RS BCOMRCTT -9.93% -12.21% -17.32% -17.46% -4.81% 30.78% -53.90%

Live Cattle RS BCOMRLCT -9.19% -14.67% -20.54% -13.10% -25.57% -8.44% 40.00%Lean Hogs RS BCOMRLHT 1.08% -10.53% -22.14% -41.38% -60.05% -56.21% -32.14%

PERFORMANCE: Bloomberg Commodity Roll Select Indices

Index Name Ticker

Index Name Ticker

2020

2020

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BCOM Constituent Weights BCOM Index MEMB <GO> * Click hyperlinks to open in Bloomberg

Group Commodity TickerFeb 2020 Contrib

to Return %Feb 28 2020

Weight %Jan 31 2020 Weight %

Feb 2020 Weight% Change

2020 Target Weight

Natural Gas NG -0.80 7.27 7.40 (0.13) 7.96%Low Sulfer Gas Oil QS -0.27 2.10 2.30 (0.20) 2.60%

WTI Crude CL -0.98 6.52 7.16 (0.64) 7.99% Brent Crude CO -0.74 5.79 6.29 (0.51) 7.01% ULS Diesel HO -0.17 1.74 1.84 (0.10) 2.11% Gasoline XB -0.24 2.18 2.13 0.05 2.26%Subtotal -3.20 25.59 27.12 (1.53) 29.93%

Corn C -0.28 6.34 6.28 0.05 5.83% Soybeans S 0.06 6.05 5.66 0.39 5.64%

Wheat W -0.17 3.29 3.33 (0.03) 3.04% Soybean Oil BO -0.14 2.72 2.71 0.00 2.90%

Soybean Meal SM 0.11 3.79 3.46 0.33 3.30% HRW Wheat KW -0.06 1.61 1.58 0.03 1.49%

Subtotal -0.49 23.80 23.03 0.77 22.19% Copper HG 0.04 7.18 6.81 0.37 6.96%

Aluminum LA -0.08 4.59 4.44 0.15 4.33% Zinc LX -0.28 3.34 3.49 (0.15) 3.43%

Nickel LN -0.13 2.75 2.75 (0.00) 2.75%Subtotal -0.45 17.86 17.50 0.36 17.46%

Gold GC -0.24 15.38 14.93 0.45 13.62% Silver SI -0.37 3.84 4.02 (0.18) 3.78%

Subtotal -0.61 19.22 18.95 0.27 17.40% Sugar SB -0.02 3.55 3.52 0.04 3.01% Coffee KC 0.16 2.80 2.47 0.33 2.71% Cotton CT -0.15 1.49 1.57 (0.08) 1.49%

Subtotal -0.01 7.84 7.55 0.29 7.21% Live Cattle LC -0.41 3.88 4.13 (0.25) 4.02% Lean Hogs LH 0.02 1.81 1.72 0.10 1.78%Subtotal -0.39 5.69 5.85 (0.16) 5.80%

Total -5.16 100.00 100.00 100.00%

Energy

Livestock

Softs

Precious Metals

Industrial Metals

Grains

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BLOOMBERG INTELLIGENCE: COMMODITY DASHBOARDS BI <GO> * Click hyperlinks to open in Bloomberg

Crude Oil Production: BI OILS <GO> Natural Gas Production: BI NGAS <GO>

Precious Metal Mining: BI PMET <GO> Agricultural Chemicals: BI AGCH <GO>

Copper: BI COPP <GO> Aluminum: BI ALUM <GO>

BI provides analysis on several key drivers of BCOM performance; industrial and precious metals mining, oil and natural gas production, and agricultural chemicals. The dashboards include key macro data libraries and interactive charting and commentary from analysts with an average of seventeen years of experience.

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COMMODITY CHEAT SHEET FOR THE BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL® SERVICE

* Click hyperlinks to open in Bloomberg

Broad Commodities EnergyTop commodity news CTOP Top energy news ETOPGlobal commodity prices GLCO Top oil news OTOP Commodity playbook CPLY Crude Oil Production Dashboard BI OILSCommitments of traders report COT First Word oil NI BFWOIL Calendar of commodity events ECO17 News on oil inventories TNI OIL INV Commodity arbitrage calculator CARC Oil Buyer's Guide newsletter NI OBGBRIEFCommodity fundamental data explorer FDM Pipes & Wires newsletter NI PAWSBRIEFCommodity futures overview CMBQ Oil market analysis BOILSecurity finder SECF Nat gas spot prices BGASCommodity data contributors & broker CDAT Forward European utility markets EUMContract table menu CTM News on oil markets NI OILMARKET Seasonality chart SEAG News on OPEC NI OPEC Commodity curve analysis CCRV OPEC production and prices OPECCommodity fair values CFVL Oil markets menu OIL Commodity price forecasts CPFC Crude stored in tankers NOONCommitments of Traders Report COT Refinery outages REFOCommodity maps BMAP Oil’s decline EXT5 Commodity options monitor OMON Oil versus inflation expectations SWIFCommodities charts COSYCommodity Investors menu CMNV MetalsUS exchange traded product fund flows ETF Top metal news METT

Precious metal dashboard BI PMETGBase metals dashboard BI BMET

Commodity Indices Metals prices and data MINE Index description BCOM Index DES Precious metals prices and rates MTL Index constituent weights BCOM Index MEMB Metals Bulletin MB Listed index futures BCOM Index CT COMEX inventories COMX Option volatility surface BCOM Index OVDV LME monitor LME Seasonality chart BCOMNG Index SEAG LME implied volatilities LMIV Commodity index futures movers FMV LME warehouse inventories LMEI Commodity index ranked returns CRR

AgricultureWeather Top agriculture news YTOP Global weather database WETR Agriculture calendar AGRI US snow monitor SNOW Agriculture spot prices AGGPEU weather & utility models EUMM Agriculture supply & demand AGSD

Crop calendar CCAL

BCOM QUICK FACTS Index Methodology

Weighting Bias 2/3 market liquidity and 1/3 world production No. of Commodities 20 Re-balancing Frequency Annual Roll Schedule Monthly (5 day roll) Caps/Limits Single commodity: max 15%

Single commodity and its derivatives: max 25%Related commodity groups: max 33%

First Value Date 30 December 1990

The data provided in this report can be easily accessed on the Bloomberg Professional® service along with numerous news and analytical tools to help you stay on top of the commodity markets.

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