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For peer review only
Dietary flavonoids intake and the risk of stroke: A dose-
response meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies
Journal: BMJ Open
Manuscript ID: bmjopen-2015-008680
Article Type: Research
Date Submitted by the Author: 06-May-2015
Complete List of Authors: Tang, Zhenyu; The Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang 330006, Jiangxi Province, People’s Republic of China, Department of Neurology Li, Min; The Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang 330006, Jiangxi Province, People’s Republic of China, Department of Neurology Zhang, Xiaowei; The Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang 330006, Jiangxi Province, People’s Republic of China,
Department of Neurology Hou, Wenshang; The Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang 330006, Jiangxi Province, People’s Republic of China, Department of Neurology
<b>Primary Subject Heading</b>:
Evidence based practice
Secondary Subject Heading: Cardiovascular medicine, Evidence based practice, Neurology, Nutrition and metabolism, Public health
Keywords: Public health < INFECTIOUS DISEASES, Stroke < NEUROLOGY, International health services < HEALTH SERVICES ADMINISTRATION & MANAGEMENT
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Dietary flavonoids intake and the risk of stroke: A dose-response
meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies
Zhenyu Tang associate professora,1,*, Min Li master student
a,1, Xiaowei Zhang
master studenta, Wenshang Hou master student
a
a Department of Neurology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang
330006, Jiangxi Province, People’s Republic of China
* Correspondence to: Zhenyu Tang, Department of Neurology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of
Nanchang University, No. 1, Minde Road, Nanchang, Jiangxi 330006, People’s Republic of China
1 Zhenyu Tang and Min Li contributed equally to this work.
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Abstract
Objective To clarify and quantify the potential association between the intake of flavonoids and
risk of stroke.
Design Meta-analysis and systematic review of prospective cohort studies.
Data source Studies published before February 2015 identified through electronic searches using
PubMed, Embase and the Cochrane Library.
Eligibility criteria for selecting studies Prospective cohort studies with relative risks and 95%
confidence intervals for stroke according to the intake of flavonoids (assessed as dietary intake).
Results The meta-analysis yielded 10 prospective cohort studies involving 258,158 participants
and more than 4,581 stroke cases. The pooled estimate of multivariate relative risk of stroke for
the highest compared with the lowest dietary flavonoids intake was 0.90 (95% confidence interval,
0.82-0.98; p = 0.019). Dose-response analysis indicated that the summary relative risk of stroke
for an increase of 100 mg flavonoids consumed per day was 0.94 (95% confidence interval,
0.83-1.06) without heterogeneity among studies (I2 = 0%). Stratifying by duration, the relative risk
of stroke for flavonoids intake was 0.89 (95% confidence interval, 0.81-0.99) in longer than 10
years of follow-up studies.
Conclusions Results from this meta-analysis suggest that higher dietary flavonoids intake may
moderately lower the risk of stroke.
Article summary
Strengths and limitations of this study
To our knowledge, this is the largest meta-analysis on flavonoids intake and the risk of stroke. We
also investigated a dose-response relation between flavonoids consumption and risk of stroke.
The possibility of residual confounding or confounding by unmeasured factors, which cannot be
ruled out in any observational study, must be acknowledged. We cannot exclude the possibility of
recall bias in the assessments of diet based on the food frequency questionnaires.
1. Stroke is the second most common cause of death and the second highest cause of disability
worldwide.
2. Epidemiological studies suggest that the intake of flavonoids is beneficial in delaying or
preventing the development of stroke, though results from cohort studies are controversial.
3. Higher dietary flavonoids intake is associated with a significantly reduced risk of stroke.
4. Dose-response analyses indicated a 6% lower risk of stroke per 100 mg/day increment of
flavonoids.
5. Further evidence from preferably randomized controlled studies should explore what kind of
flavonoids can reduce the risk of stroke.
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Introduction
Stroke is the second most common cause of death, as well as the fourth leading cause of lost
productivity and the second highest cause of disability worldwide.1,2
The prevention of stroke is
thus clearly an important public health priority. In recent decades, concern has mounted regarding
the premature incidence and mortality associated with stroke, with growing interest in altering risk
factors and reversing this global epidemic. Among the known risk factors for stroke, dietary
factors, especially dietary flavonoids intake, have aroused particular attention. Clinical studies
have shown that intakes of flavonoids reduce cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk.3-5
Additionally,
experimental studies indicated that flavonoids have been shown to have both antioxidant and
antithrombotic properties.6,7
Over the last 2 decades, many prospective studies have assessed the association of dietary
flavonoids intake and risk of stroke.8-17
Although a recent meta-analysis that combined the results
from 8 cohort studies of flavonol intake and risk of stroke found a significant association of stroke
of 0.86 (95% CI, 0.75 to 0.99) for the highest versus lowest category of flavonol intake,18
the role
of flavonoids intake on stroke prevention is still controversial. In addition, flavonoids intake
differed substantially between studies, which makes it difficult to interpret the summary estimate
based on results from study populations with different ranges of flavonoids intake.19
To fill these gaps, we conducted a dose-response meta-analysis of the current evidence for the
association between flavonoids exposure, including cohort studies of dietary flavonoids, with risk
of stroke.
Methods
Literature search
The search strategy was conducted according to the recommendations of the Meta-analysis of
Observational Studies in Epidemiology (MOOSE).20
We performed a systematic search of
PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane library through February, 2015. The following key words
were used in our search strategies: “flavonoids,” “polyphenols,” “phenolics,” “flavonols,”
“flavones,” “quercetin,” “kaempferol,” “myricetin,” “isorhamnetin,” “apigenin,” “luteolin,” and
“stroke,” “cerebrovascular disease,” “cerebrovascular disorders,” “cerebral infarct,” “ischemic
stroke,” “intracranial hemorrhage,” “intracranial artery disease,” “cardiovascular disease,”
“myocardial ischemia,” “myocardial infarct,” “ischemic heart disease,” “coronary heart disease,”
and “longitudinal studies,” “cohort studies,” “prospective studies,” “follow-up studies.” We
restricted the search to human studies. There were no language restrictions. In addition, we
reviewed the references lists of obtained articles to identify additional relevant studies. When the
same or similar patient cohort was included in several publications, only the most recent or
complete report was selected for analysis.
Study Selection
Studies were selected for the meta-analysis if they fulfilled the following entry criteria: (1) the
study of adult patients had a community-based or population-based, prospective cohort design; (2)
the exposure of interest was intake of dietary flavonoids (including: flavonols, flavones,
flavanones, flavan-3-ols, anthocyanidins, and isoflavones); (3) the outcome of interest was stroke,
including all types of stroke (fatal, nonfatal, ischemic, and hemorrhagic); (4) reported quantitative
estimates of the multivariate-adjusted relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for
stroke incidence or mortality associated with flavonoids intake; and (5) longer than 1 year of
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follow-up. Studies were excluded if (1) the study design was cross-sectional, case-control; (2)
reported unadjusted or only age- or sex-adjusted RR; and (3) shorter than 1 year of follow-up.
Data Abstraction
All data were independently abstracted in duplicate by 2 investigators (ML, and XZ).
Discrepancies were resolved by consensus. When necessary, the original authors were contacted
for supplementary information. The following data were extracted from each study: first author’s
last name, publication year, country where the study was performed, location, number of
participants, participants’ age, follow-up years, assessment of dietary data and stroke, number of
cases, adjusted covariates and study quality.
Assessment of study quality
The Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS) was used to assess the quality of studies.21
The quality of
cohort studies were evaluated in the following three major components: selection of the study
group (0-4 stars), quality of the adjustment for confounding (0-2 stars) and assessment of outcome
in the cohorts (0-3 stars). A higher score represents better methodological quality. The full score
was 9 stars. Studies were graded as the high-quality if they met >8 awarded stars.
Statistical Analysis
The relative risks (RRs) were used as the common measure of association between depression and
stroke, and the hazard ratios (HRs) were considered equivalent to RRs. Data analysis used
multivariate-adjusted outcome data. We converted these values in every study by using their
natural logarithms, and the SEs were calculated from these logarithmic numbers and their
corresponding 95% CIs. When the result on total stroke in our meta-analysis was not available, we
used data from ischemic stroke, nonfatal stroke, or fatal stroke as an equivalent to total stroke.22
We combined these estimates using a random-effects model, which takes into account both
within-study and between-study variabilities.23
In the dose-response analysis, the generalized least
square for trend estimation method described by Greenland and Longnecker24
and Orsini et al25
was used to calculate study-specific slopes (linear trends) and 95% confidence intervals. The
method requires the distributions of cases and person years for exposure categories, and
median/mean of flavonoids intake level for each comparison group. We assigned the midpoint of
the upper and lower boundaries of each comparison group to determine mean flavonoids intake
level if the median or mean intake was not provided. If the lower or upper boundary for the lowest
and highest category, respectively, was not reported, we assumed that the boundary had the same
amplitude as the closest category.19
Additionally, we first created restricted cubic splines with 3
knots at fixed percentiles 25%, 50%, and 75% of the distribution.26
A p value for nonlinearity was
calculated by testing the null hypothesis that the coefficient of the fractional polynomials
component is equal to zero. Heterogeneity among studies was evaluated using the chi-square test
based on Cochran’s Q test and I2 statistic at p<0.10 level of significance,
23 which describes the
percentage of variability in the effect estimates that is due to heterogeneity rather than chance.27
We regard I2 of <40% as “heterogeneity might not be important” and >75% as “considerable
heterogeneity” based on the suggestion of Cochrane Handbook for Systemic Review of
Interventions.28
All available data were conducted in the primary analysis. Subsequent subgroup
analyses were conducted according to stroke outcomes (fatal/nonfatal versus ischemic), follow-up
duration (≤10 years versus >10 years), sex (male versus female versus combined), Geographical
area (United States versus Asian versus European), history of stroke (yes versus no), and study
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quality (high [score> 8] versus low [score ≤8]). To explore possible explanations for
heterogeneity and to test the robustness of the association, we conducted meta-regression,
sensitivity analyses and abovementioned stratified analysis. The possibility of publication bias was
evaluated using the Egger rank correlation test at p<0.10 level of significance and visual
inspection of a funnel plot.29,30
In the case of publication bias, “nonparametric trim-and-fill”
method was used to compute risk estimates corrected for this bias.31
All the statistical analyses
were performed in STATA 12.0 (StataCorp, College Station, TX). p values were 2-sided and p<
0.05 was considered statistically significant.
Results
Literature Search
Figure 1 shows the results of literature research and selection. We initially identified 181 citations.
After exclusion of duplicate records and studies that did not fulfill our inclusion criteria, 21 studies
remained, and we further evaluated the full texts of these 21 publications. Of these, we excluded
11 studies for the following reasons: no stroke outcomes (n=4), duplicate reports (n=3) and review
(n=4). Finally, 10 studies met the inclusion criteria and were included in the meta-analysis.8-17
Study Characteristics
The characteristics of the studies and of their participants are presented in Table 1 and
Supplemental table 1. A total of 10 studies involving 258,158 participants and more than 4,581
stroke cases were included in the meta-analysis.8-17
Among 10 studies, 3 were conducted primarily
in the United States,11,14,16
1 from an Asian country (Singapore),17
and 6 studies were from
European countries (including Finland, Netherlands).8-10,12,13,15
The number of participants ranged
from 755 in the study by Marniemi et al12
to 69,622 in the study by Cassidy et al.16
3 studies
included both men and women,10,12,17
3 studies included only men,8,9,15
and 4 studies only
women.11,13,14,16
The follow-up duration ranged from 6.1 to 28 years,8,10
with a median of 14.35
years. The dietary assessment of flavonoids intake varied across studies, in most of the studies,
intake of flavonoids was measured by food frequency questionnaires (FFQs) and dietary history
interview. In most of the studies, stroke was assessed by medical records or death certificates
based on ICD-8,9,10. All studies provided adjusted risk estimates (e.g., sex, body mass index,
smoking, education, et al), overall quality scores ranged for 7 to 9, and the median score was 8.
Flavonoids intake and Stroke Risk
The multivariable adjusted RRs of fatal or nonfatal stroke in relation to dietary flavonoids intake
from individual studies and the combined RR are presented in figure 2. For the 10 studies, only 1
showed that flavonoids intake was associated with decreased risk of stroke.10
Overall, participants
with the highest dietary flavonoids intake, compared with the lowest, experienced a significant
decreased risk for development of stroke (combined RR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.82-0.98; Figure 2) after
adjustment for other risk factors. We saw no heterogeneity among studies (p = 0.733, I2
= 0%).
Among 10 studies, 4 studies were eligible for the dose-response analysis of flavonoids intake and
risk of stroke.9,14,16,17
Using a restricted cubic splines model, dose-response analysis found a
statistically nonsignificant inverse association with risk of stroke per 100-mg/day increment of
flavonoids intake (relative risk 0.94, 95% confidence interval 0.83 to 1.06, I2 = 0%; Figure 3 and
4). No publication bias was observed (p = 0.962).
Stratifying analysis
In most subgroups, dietary flavonoids intake was not associated with stroke. Stratifying by sex,
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the associations between dietary flavonoids intake and risk of stroke were similar between males
and females (table 2). The pooled RR of stroke were 0.88 (95% CI: 0.75-1.03) from studies
conducted in the United States, 0.88 (95% CI: 0.77-100) in European, and 0.97 (95% CI:
0.81-1.16) in Asian (table 2). Stratifying by duration, we observed the protective effect of dietary
flavonoids intake in longer than 10 years of follow-up studies. The associations were more evident
in several strata of study characteristics (table 2).
Sensitivity Analysis and Publication Bias
We tested the robustness of our results in sensitivity analysis, when a single study included in the
meta-analysis was deleted at a time, the results of meta-analysis remained largely unchanged,
indicating that the results of the present meta-analysis were stable (data not shown). Visual
inspection of the funnel plot identified asymmetry (Supplemental figure 1). There was no
statistical evidence of publication bias among studies for stroke risk by using Egger test (p =
0.222).
Meta Regression
In this meta-analysis, although no heterogeneity was observed among individual studies, a
multivariate regression was conducted to explore the potential sources of heterogeneity under
stroke. The results of regression suggested that stroke outcomes, follow-up duration, sex,
geographical area, history of stroke, and study quality were no significant source of heterogeneity.
Discussion
Our meta-analysis of 10 prospective studies indicates that dietary flavonoids intake may be
inversely associated with risk of stroke. In addition, dose-response analysis found a statistically
nonsignificant inverse association, with a RR of 0.94 (95% CI, 0.83-1.06) for each 100-mg/day
increment of flavonoids intake.
Potential benefits of flavonoids
Flavonoids, constitute a large class of polyphenols, are widely distributed in plants and are present
in considerable amounts in fruits, vegetables, tea and red wine. These bioactive polyphenols are
non-energetic, non-nutrient secondary metabolites present in plants and cannot be synthesizes by
humans.32
In recent decades, overwhelming evidence indicates that intake of flavonoids was
associated with well-known risk-factors for CVD. There was also some evidence that flavonoids
may have a direct role in the development of CVD (e.g., coronary heart disease, stroke, et al).33,34
In addition, although there are many putative biological mechanisms underlying a possible
cardioprotective role for flavonoids,35
including antioxidant,6 reductions in platelet aggregation,
36
anti-inflammatory,37
and the recovery of endothelial function properties of some of the compounds,
the effect of individual components or interactions between flavonoids is still largely unknown,
flavonols and isoflavones intake may explain some of this beneficial effect.
Meanwhile, the exact mechanism for the beneficial effect by which flavonoids intake may protect
against the development of stroke is still ambiguous. The first mechanism is the improved effect
of flavonoids on the amelioration of insulin resistance, flavonoids, especially quercetin, may be
beneficial in insulin resistance by inhibition of intestinal glucose transporters.38
Moreover,
flavonoids reduced mitochondrial lipid peroxidation and loss of mitochondrial transmembrane
electric potential caused by oxidative stress induced by ADP plus iron. Thus, it was mainly
attributed to antioxidant effects.39
The third mechanism is the protective action of flavonoids on
the anti-inflammatory properties in the brain, it may be attributable to raft disrupting and
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antioxidant effects.40
Because the flavonoids are very diverse in their bioavailability and
bioactivity, the rationale for assuming that intakes to all flavonoid classes might have effects on
stroke needs more consideration.
Results in relation to other studies
Over the past decades, despite extensive studies that investigated the role of flavonoids intake on
either cardiovascular diseases or cerebrovascular diseases, it remains unclear whether the
association between flavonoids intake and risk of stroke is causal. Some of the studies suggested
flavonoids associated with increased risk of stroke,10
the others failed to find the association.8,9
Importantly, the possibility of reverse causality should be addressed. Previous meta-analysis of
flavonol intake and risk of stroke showed that flavonol intake was inversely associated with stroke
incidence.34
That meta-analysis included 6 prospective cohorts studies, of which were from 3
different countries, 4 were conducted in Europe (3 in Finland and 1 in The Netherlands) and 2 in
the United States. The inverse associations between flavonol intake and stroke were observed in
two prospective cohort studies (Zutphen Elderly Study and Kuopio Study). Weak and
nonsignificant inverse associations were found in the Finnish Mobile Clinic Study and Women’s
Health Study, whereas no associations were noted in the Iowa Women’s Health Study and
Alpha-Tocopherol, Beta-Carotene Cancer Prevention Study. The results for flavonol were
consistent with our findings on flavonoids. But the data from studies included by previous
meta-analysis were limited to August 2009.34
Interestingly, since then many new studies involving
relationship between flavonoids intake and risk of stroke were published.16,17
To obtain a more
comprehensive estimate of the putative influence of the flavonoids on stroke, we conducted a
meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies. To our knowledge, this meta-analysis is the largest to
reveal the potential relationship between dietary flavonoids intake and risk of stroke. However,
most studies assess dietary flavonoids intake based on self-reported questionnaires using FFQs,
and medical records were not always available for stroke classification, the possibility that
misclassification of flavonoids intake and stroke was inevitable and likely to bias true association
among individual studies.
Strengths and limitations
Compared with the previous meta-analyses,18,34
our study has several more important strengths.
The present meta-analysis included 2 times more participants and 2 times more stroke cases, to
our knowledge, this is the largest meta-analysis on flavonoids intake and the risk of stroke. We
also explored possible source of heterogeneity using subgroup analyses and the meta-regression
method, all of them were no significant. Moreover, the presence of a dose-response relationship
further strengthened the association of dietary flavonoids intake with risk of stroke. Therefore, the
results should be more reliable.
In interpreting the results, some limitations of this meta-analysis should be acknowledged. First,
one limitation of any meta-analysis of observational studies is that residual confounding or
confounding by unmeasured factors (such as intake of other nutrients) may have affected the
significant association between flavonoids intake and stroke risk. Thus, these findings should be
treated with cautions. Second, we cannot exclude the possibility of recall bias in the assessments
of diet based on the FFQs. However, the prospective study design and exclusion of participants
with chronic diseases at baseline should minimize such bias. Third, the noticeable limitation of our
study was the potential for bias due to inevitable measurement error and misclassification,
especially for individual with lower consumption levels. We attempted to reduce measurement
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error in adjusting for energy or fiber intake and using of cumulatively averaged intake levels.
Fourth, we could not study the main sources of flavonoids because of the insufficient data.
However, it is most likely that the main source of flavonols, flavones and flavanones have been
the same.15
Finally, the possible limitation is due to language bias. We attempted to minimize this
bias by searching major electronic databases with no language restriction. However, several
articles published in non-English or unpublished reports might not appear in international journal
databases, and could be omitted by our searches.41
Conclusions
In summary, results from this meta-analysis suggest that higher dietary flavonoids intake may
moderately lower the risk of stroke after adjustment of established cardiovascular risk factors.
Further preferably randomized controlled studies are needed to evaluate the effects of flavonoids
intake on stroke risk.
Contributors: ML and ZT conceived and designed the study. ML and WH searched the databases
and checked them according to the eligible criteria and exclusion criteria. ZT helped develop
search strategies. XZ and WH extract quantitative data. XZ, and WH analyzed the data. ML wrote
the draft of the paper. All authors contributed to writing, reviewing, or revising the paper. ZT is the
guarantor.
Funding: This work was not funded by any foundation or program.
Competing interests: All authors have completed the ICMJE uniform disclosure form at
www.icmje.org/coi_disclosure.pdf (available on request from the corresponding author) and
declare: no support from any organization for the submitted work; no financial relationships with
any organizations that might have an interest in the submitted work in the previous three years; no
other relationships or activities that could appear to have influenced the submitted work.
Ethical approval: Not required.
Data sharing: No additional data available.
Figures Information
Figure 1. Process of literature search and study selection.
(TIFF)
Figure 2. Random effects analysis of fully adjusted studies for highest versus lowest intake of
flavonoids and risk of stroke.
(TIFF)
Figure 3. Dose-response relationship between dietary flavonoids intake and stroke risk.
(TIFF)
Figure 4. Forest plot of flavonoids and risk of stroke.
(TIFF)
Appendix figure information
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Supplemental figure 1. Egger funnel plot for detection of publication bias for stroke risk.
(DOC)
Appendix table information
Supplemental table 1. Confounding factors and methods for adjustment.
(DOC)
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15. Mursu J, Voutilainen S, Nurmi T, et al. Flavonoid intake and the risk of ischaemic stroke and
CVD mortality in middle-aged Finnish men: the Kuopio Ischaemic Heart Disease Risk Factor
Study. Br J Nutr 2008;100:890-5.
16. Cassidy A, Rimm EB, O'Reilly EJ, et al. Dietary flavonoids and risk of stroke in women.
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Stroke 2012;43:946-51.
17. Talaei M, Koh WP, van Dam RM, et al. Dietary soy intake is not associated with risk of
cardiovascular disease mortality in Singapore Chinese adults. J Nutr 2014;144:921-8.
18. Wang ZM, Zhao D, Nie ZL, et al. Flavonol intake and stroke risk: a meta-analysis of cohort
studies. Nutrition 2014;30:518-23.
19. Larsson SC, Orsini N, Wolk A. Dietary potassium intake and risk of stroke: a dose-response
meta-analysis of prospective studies. Stroke 2011;42:2746-50.
20. Stroup DF, Berlin JA, Morton SC, et al. Meta-analysis of observational studies in
epidemiology: a proposal for reporting. Meta-analysis Of Observational Studies in
Epidemiology (MOOSE) group. JAMA 2000;283:2008-12.
21. Stang A. Critical evaluation of the Newcastle-Ottawa scale for the assessment of the quality of
nonrandomized studies in meta-analyses. Eur J Epidemiol 2010;25:603-5.
22. Pan A, Sun Q, Okereke OI, et al. Depression and risk of stroke morbidity and mortality: a
meta-analysis and systematic review. JAMA 2011;306:1241-9.
23. DerSimonian R, Laird N. Meta-analysis in clinical trials. Control Clin Trials 1986;7:177-88.
24. Greenland S, Longnecker MP. Methods for trend estimation from summarized dose-response
data, with applications to meta-analysis. Am J Epidemiol 1992;135:1301-9.
25. Orsini N, Li R, Wolk A, et al. Meta-analysis for linear and nonlinear dose-response relations:
examples, an evaluation of approximations, and software. Am J Epidemiol 2012;175:66-73.
26. Harrell FE Jr, Lee KL, Pollock BG. Regression models in clinical studies: determining
relationships between predictors and response. J Natl Cancer Inst 1988;80:1198-202.
27. Higgins JP, Thompson SG, Deeks JJ, et al. Measuring inconsistency in meta-analyses. BMJ
2003;327:557-60.
28. Higgins JPT, Green S. Cochrane Handbook for systematic Reviews of Interventions. Oxford,
UK: The Cochrane Collaboration; 2011.
29. Begg CB, Mazumdar M. Operating characteristics of a rank correlation test for publication
bias. Biometrics 1994;50:1088-101.
30. Sterne JA, Egger M. Funnel plots for detecting bias in meta-analysis: guidelines on choice of
axis. J Clin Epidemiol 2001;54:1046-55.
31. Duval S, Tweedie R. Trim and fill: A simple funnel-plot-based method of testing and adjusting
for publication bias in meta-analysis. Biometrics 2000;56:455-63.
32. Bravo L. Polyphenols: chemistry, dietary sources, metabolism, and nutritional significance.
Nutr Rev 1998;56:317-33.
33. Huxley RR, Neil HA. The relation between dietary flavonol intake and coronary heart disease
mortality: a meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies. Eur J Clin Nutr 2003;57:904-8.
34. Hollman PC, Geelen A, Kromhout D. Dietary flavonol intake may lower stroke risk in men
and women. J Nutr 2010;140:600-4.
35. Geleijnse JM, PCh H. Flavonoids and cardiovascular health: which compounds, what
mechanisms. Am J Clin Nutr 2008;88:12-3.
36. Murphy KJ, Chronopoulos AK, Singh I, et al. Dietary flavanols and procyanidin oligomers
from cocoa (Theobroma cacao) inhibit platelet function. Am J Clin Nutr 2003;77:1466-73.
37. Landberg R, Sun Q, Rimm EB, et al. Selected dietary flavonoids are associated with markers
of inflammation and endothelial dysfunction in U.S. women. J Nutr 2011;141:618-25.
38. Li YQ, Zhou FC, Gao F, et al. Comparative evaluation of quercetin, isoquercetin and rutin as
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inhibitors of alpha-glucosidase. J Agric Food Chem 2009;57:11463-8.
39. Silva B, Oliveira PJ, Dias A, et al. Quercetin, kaempferol and biapigenin from Hypericum
perforatum are neuroprotective against excitotoxic insults. Neurotox Res 2008;13:265-79.
40. Perez-Vizcaino F, Duarte J. Flavonols and cardiovascular disease. Mol Aspects Med
2010;31:478-94.
41. Li M, Hou W, Zhang X, et al. Hyperuricemia and risk of stroke: a systematic review and
meta-analysis of prospective studies. Atherosclerosis 2014;232:265-70.
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Table 1. Characteristics of studies included in the meta-analysis
First author,
publication (yr) Country/Population
No. Participants (%
male)
Age rang or
mean (yr)
Follow-Up
Duration (yr)
Assessment of
dietary data
Stroke
Ascertainment
No. of stroke
cases
Pre-stroke
Excluded
Study
Quality
Hirvonen et al.8
2000
Finland/European
26497 (100)
50-69
6.1
A self-administered,
modified diet history
method
Any type of stroke
based on ICD-8, 9
codes
Ischemic: 736
Yes
8
Arts et al.9 2001
Netherlands/European
806 (100)
65-84
15
A cross-check
dietary history
method
Any type of stroke
based on ICD-9
codes
Fatal: 47,
Nonfatal: 88
No
7
Knekt et al.10
2002
Finland/European
9131 (NA)
30-69
28
A dietary history
interview
Any type of stroke
based on ICD-8
codes
Fatal or
nonfatal: 681
No
8
Sesso et al.11
2003
United States
38445 (0)
53.9
6.9
A food-frequency
questionnaire
Any type of stroke
based on clinical
diagnosis
Fatal or
nonfatal: NA
Yes
9
Marniemi et al.12
2005
Finland/European
755 (47.8)
65-99
10
A dietary history
interview
Any type of stroke
based on ICD-9
codes
Fatal: 45,
Nonfatal: 25
Yes
8
van der Schouw et
al.13
2005
Netherlands/European
16165 (0)
49-70
6.3
A validated
food-frequency
questionnaire
Any type of stroke
based on ICD-9
codes
Fatal or
nonfatal: 147
Yes
9
Mink et al.14
2007
United States
34489 (0)
55-69
16
A food-frequency
questionnaire
Any type of stroke
based on ICD-9
codes
Fatal: 469
Yes
9
Mursu et al.15
2008
Finland/European
1950 (100)
42-60
15.2
An instructed 4d
food recording by
Any type of stroke
based on ICD-9, 10
Ischemic: 102
Yes
9
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household measures codes
Cassidy et al.16
2012
United States
69622 (0)
30-55
14
A semiquantitative
food-frequency
questionnaires
interview
Any type of stroke
based on medical
records, autopsy
reports, and death
certificates
Ischemic: 943
Yes
8
Talaei et al.17
2014
Singapore/Asian
60298 (44.5)
45-74
14.7
A semiquantitative
food-frequency
questionnaires
interview
Any type of stroke
based on ICD-9
codes
Fatal: 1298
No
8
Abbreviations: ICD: international classification of diseases.
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Table 2. Stratified analyses of flavonoids intake and stroke risk
Group No. of studies RR (95% CI) Heterogeneity test
P value of pooled effect χχχχ2 P value I
2, %
Overall studies
Fatal/nonfatal stroke 10 0.90 (0.82-0.98) 2.35 0.733 0 0.019
Ischemic stroke 3 0.93 (0.80-1.07) 1.03 0.609 0 0.301
Geographical area
United States 3 0.88 (0.75-1.03) 1.59 0.511 0 0.112
Asian 1 0.97 (0.81-1.16) 0.33 - - 0.740
European 6 0.88 (0.77-1.00) 1.95 0.577 0 0.051
History of stroke
Yes 3 0.89 (0.78-1.02) 1.66 0.683 0 0.096
No 7 0.90 (0.80-1.02) 1.62 0.351 4.6 0.105
Sex
Male 3 0.95 (0.79-1.14) 0.55 0.651 0 0.580
Female 4 0.89 (0.77-1.04) 1.45 0.613 0 0.114
Combined 3 0.86 (0.72-1.04) 1.58 0.227 32.6 0.148
Mean follow-up, years
≤10 4 0.90 (0.74-1.09) 1.10 0.340 10.7 0.271
>10 6 0.89 (0.81-0.99) 2.09 0.750 0 0.036
Quality score
High, score>8 4 0.87 (0.70-1.07) 1.34 0.534 0 0.181
Low, score≤8 6 0.91 (0.82-1.00) 1.97 0.589 0 0.048
Abbreviations: CI = confidence interval; RR = relative risk.
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152x101mm (300 x 300 DPI)
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Egger's publication bias plot
standardized effect
precision0 5 10
-2
-1
0
1
Supplemental figure 1 Egger funnel plot for detection of publication bias for stroke risk
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Supplemental table 1. Confounding factors and methods for adjustment
Reference Adjusted covariates Total stroke Nonfatal stroke Fatal Stroke Ischemic Stroke Hemorrhagic
stroke
Hirvonen et al.8 2000
Age, BMI, SBP, DBP, height, cholesterol, diabetes, history
CHD, smoking, alcohol, supplementation group and education.
equal to
ischemic stroke
results
0.98 (0.80-1.21)
Arts et al.9 2001
Age, BMI, smoking, alcohol, physical activity, coffee, diet,
energy, FA, prescribed diet, intakes of fish, coffee, cholesterol,
fiber, fish, vit C, vit E and β-carotene
0.92
(0.51-1.68)
Knekt et al.10
2002
Age, sex, geographic area, occupation, BMI, BP, cholesterol,
diabetes, region, SE and smoking
0.79
(0.64-0.98)
Sesso et al.11
2003
Age, exercise, aspirin, BMI, BP, postmenopausal hormone use,
cholesterol, diabetes, history of CHD, smoking, alcohol, F﹠V,
fiber, folate and vit E.
0.70
(0.46-1.07)
Marniemi et al.12
2005
Age, sex, smoking, functional capacity and weight adjusted
energy intake.
0.65
(0.34-1.23)
van der Schouw et
al.13
2005
Age, BMI, cholesterol, physical activity, diabetes,
hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, HRT, OC, MS, smoking,
alcohol, energy, F﹠A, fiber, protein, fruit, vegetable and
menopausal status.
1.05
(0.64-1.70)
Mink et al.14
2007
Age, BMI, BP, diabetes, HRT, MS, education, smoking,
activity, estrogen use, WHR and energy
equal to fatal
stroke results
0.94 (0.69-1.29)
Mursu et al.15
2008
Age, examination years, BMI, SBP, HM, cholesterol, TAG,
maximal oxygen uptake, smoking, history of CVD, diabetes,
alcohol, energy-adjusted intake of folate and vit E.
equal to
ischemic stroke
results
0.71 (0.37-1.37)
Cassidy et al.16
2012 Age, physical activity, smoking, HRT, BMI, aspirin use, equal to 0.90 (0.73-1.11)
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diabetes, hypercholesterolemia, history of CHD, alcohol,
menopausal status, energy, use of multivitamins and history of
hypertension
ischemic stroke
results
Talaei et al.17
2014
Age, sex, dialect, year of interview, educational level, BMI,
physical activity, smoking duration, alcohol, diabetes,
hypertension, CHD, stroke, energy and fiber
equal to fatal
stroke results
0.97 (0.81-1.16)
Abbreviations: BMI, body mass index; CVD, cardiovascular disease; CHD, coronary heart disease; BP, blood pressure; SBP: systolic blood pressures; DBP: diastolic blood
pressures; vit C: vitamin C; vit E: vitamin E; FA: fatty acids; F﹠V: fruit and vegetable intake; MS: menopausal status; HRT: hormonal replacement therapy; OC: oral
contraceptives; WHR: waist-to-hip ratio; HM: hypertension medication。
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MOOSE Checklist
Dietary flavonoids intake and the risk of stroke: A dose-response
meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies
Min Li master student1, Xiaowei Zhang master student
1, Wenshang Hou master
student1, Zhenyu Tang associate professor
1
1Department of Neurology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University,
Nanchang 330006, Jiangxi Province, People’s Republic of China
Correspondence to: Zhenyu Tang, Department of Neurology, The Second Affiliated
Hospital of Nanchang University, No. 1, Minde Road, Nanchang, Jiangxi 330006,
People’s Republic of China
Email: [email protected]
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Criteria Brief description of how the criteria were handled in
the meta-analysis
Reporting of background should
include
√ Problem definition Stroke is the second most common cause of death, as well
as the fourth leading cause of lost productivity and the
second highest cause of disability worldwide. The
prevention of stroke is thus clearly an important public
health priority. In recent decades, concern has mounted
regarding the premature incidence and mortality
associated with stroke, with growing interest in altering
risk factors and reversing this global epidemic. Among
the known risk factors for stroke, dietary factors,
especially dietary flavonoids intake, have aroused
particular attention. Clinical studies have shown that
intakes of flavonoids reduce cardiovascular disease
(CVD) risk. Additionally, experimental studies indicated
that flavonoids have been shown to have both antioxidant
and antithrombotic properties.
√ Hypothesis statement Flavonoids intake decrease risk of stroke.
√ Description of study outcomes Stroke.
√ Type of exposure or
intervention used
Flavonoids
√ Type of study designs used We included (1) original studies (eg, not review articles,
meeting abstracts, editorials, or commentaries); (2)
prospective cohort design (eg, not cross sectional design,
case-control design).
√ Study population We placed no restriction.
Reporting of search strategy
should include
√ Qualifications of searchers The credentials of the two investigators WH and ML are
indicated in the author list.
√ Search strategy, including time
period included in the
synthesis and keywords
PubMed from 1965 –February 2015
Embase from 1974 –February 2015
Cochrane library from 1990- February 2015
Keywords: (“flavonoids,” “polyphenols,” “phenolics,”
“flavonols,” “flavones,” “quercetin,” “kaempferol,”
“myricetin,” “isorhamnetin,” “apigenin,” “luteolin,” and
“stroke,” “cerebrovascular disease,” “cerebrovascular
disorders,” “cerebral infarct,” “ischemic stroke,”
“intracranial hemorrhage,” “intracranial artery disease,”
“cardiovascular disease,” “myocardial ischemia,”
“myocardial infarct,” “ischemic heart disease,” “coronary
heart disease,”) AND (“longitudinal studies,” “cohort
studies,” “prospective studies,” “follow-up studies.”).
√ Databases and registries
searched
PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane library
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√ Search software used, name
and version, including special
features
We did not employ a search software. EndNote was used
to merge retrieved citations and eliminate duplications
√ Use of hand searching We hand-searched bibliographies of retrieved papers for
additional references,
√ List of citations located and
those excluded, including
justifications
Details of the literature search process are outlined in the
process of literature search and study selection. The
citation list is available upon request
√ Method of addressing articles
published in languages other
than English
We placed no restrictions on language; local scientists
fluent in the original language of the article were
contacted for translation
√ Method of handling abstracts
and unpublished studies
We had contacted a few authors for unpublished studies
on the association.
√ Description of any contact with
authors
We contacted authors who had conducted multivariate
analysis with coronary heart disease as a covariate, but
the exposure of interest was not intake of dietary
flavonoids.
Reporting of methods should
include
√ Description of relevance or
appropriateness of studies
assembled for assessing the
hypothesis to be tested
Detailed inclusion and exclusion criteria were described
in the methods section.
√ Rationale for the selection and
coding of data
Data extracted from each of the studies were relevant to
the population characteristics, study design, exposure,
outcome, and possible effect modifiers of the association.
√ Assessment of confounding Restricted the analysis to age- or sex-adjusted estimates
only. Conducted sensitivity analyses by eliminating
studies that had not adjusted for possible confounders.
√ Assessment of study quality,
including blinding of quality
assessors; stratification or
regression on possible
predictors of study results
The Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS) was used to assess
the quality of studies. The quality of cohort studies were
evaluated in the following three major components:
selection of the study group (0-4 stars), quality of the
adjustment for confounding (0-2 stars) and assessment of
outcome in the cohorts (0-3 stars). A higher score
represents better methodological quality. The full score
was 9 stars. Studies were graded as the high-quality if
they met >8 awarded stars.
√ Assessment of heterogeneity Heterogeneity of the studies were explored within two
types of study designs using Cochrane’s Q test of
heterogeneity and I2 statistic that provides the relative
amount of variance of the summary effect due to the
between-study heterogeneity.
√ Description of statistical
methods in sufficient detail to
be replicated
Description of methods of meta-analyses, sensitivity
analyses, subgroup analyses, meta regression and
assessment of publication bias are detailed in the
methods.
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√ Provision of appropriate tables
and graphics
We included 1 flow chart, several summary tables and
figures.
Reporting of results should
include
√ Graph summarizing individual
study estimates and overall
estimate
Figure 2, 3 and 4
√ Table giving descriptive
information for each study
included
Table 1 and Supplemental table 1
√ Results of sensitivity testing
Table 2
√ Indication of statistical
uncertainty of findings
95% confidence intervals were presented with all
summary estimates, I2 values and results of sensitivity
analyses
Reporting of discussion should
include
√ Quantitative assessment of bias Subgroup analyses indicate heterogeneity in strengths of
the association due to most common biases in cohort
studies.
√ Justification for exclusion We excluded studies that had not adjusted for or were
standardized by age or sex, a potential confounder, and
used different exposure or outcome assessment for the
comparison groups.
√ Assessment of quality of
included studies
We discussed the results of the subgroup analyses, and
potential reasons for the observed heterogeneity.
Reporting of conclusions should
include
√ Consideration of alternative
explanations for observed
results
We discussed that potential unmeasured confounders such
as other chronic diseases may have caused residual
confounding, but the measured factors that are correlated
with such confounders would have mitigated the bias.
We noted that the variations in the strengths of
association may be due to true population differences, or
to differences in quality of studies.
√ Generalization of the
conclusions
Our meta-analysis suggests that dietary flavonoids intake
may be inversely associated with risk of stroke. In
addition, dose-response analysis found a statistically
nonsignificant inverse association, with a relative risk of
0.94 (95% confidence intervals, 0.83-1.06) for each 100-
mg/day increment of flavonoids intake.
√ Guidelines for future research We recommend future preferably randomized controlled
studies should explore what kind of flavonoids can reduce
the risk of stroke.
√ Disclosure of funding source No separate funding was necessary for the undertaking of
this systematic review.
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Dietary flavonoid intake and the risk of stroke: A dose-
response
meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies
Journal: BMJ Open
Manuscript ID bmjopen-2015-008680.R1
Article Type: Research
Date Submitted by the Author: 26-Nov-2015
Complete List of Authors: Tang, Zhenyu; The Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang 330006, Jiangxi Province, People’s Republic of China, Department of Neurology
Li, Min; The Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang 330006, Jiangxi Province, People’s Republic of China, Department of Neurology Zhang, Xiaowei; The Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang 330006, Jiangxi Province, People’s Republic of China, Department of Neurology Hou, Wenshang; The Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang 330006, Jiangxi Province, People’s Republic of China, Department of Neurology
<b>Primary Subject Heading</b>:
Evidence based practice
Secondary Subject Heading: Cardiovascular medicine, Evidence based practice, Neurology, Nutrition and
metabolism, Public health
Keywords: Stroke < NEUROLOGY, NUTRITION & DIETETICS, Epidemiology < INFECTIOUS DISEASES
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Dietary flavonoids intake and the risk of stroke: A dose-response
meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies
Zhenyu Tang associate professora,1,*, Min Li master student
a,1, Xiaowei Zhang
master studenta, Wenshang Hou master student
a
a Department of Neurology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang
330006, Jiangxi Province, People’s Republic of China
* Correspondence to: Zhenyu Tang, Department of Neurology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of
Nanchang University, No. 1, Minde Road, Nanchang, Jiangxi 330006, People’s Republic of China
1 Zhenyu Tang and Min Li contributed equally to this work.
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Abstract
Objective To clarify and quantify the potential association between the intake of flavonoids and
risk of stroke.
Design Meta-analysis and systematic review of prospective cohort studies.
Data source Studies published before February 2015 identified through electronic searches using
PubMed, Embase and the Cochrane Library.
Eligibility criteria for selecting studies Prospective cohort studies with relative risks and 95%
confidence intervals for stroke according to the intake of flavonoids (assessed as dietary intake).
Results The meta-analysis yielded 10 prospective cohort studies involving 258,158 participants
and more than 4,581 stroke cases. The pooled estimate of multivariate relative risk of stroke for
the highest compared with the lowest dietary flavonoids intake was 0.90 (95% confidence interval,
0.82-0.98; p = 0.019). Dose-response analysis indicated that the summary relative risk of stroke
for an increase of 100 mg flavonoids consumed per day was 0.94 (95% confidence interval,
0.83-1.06) without heterogeneity among studies (I2 = 0%). Stratifying by duration, the relative risk
of stroke for flavonoids intake was 0.89 (95% confidence interval, 0.81-0.99) in longer than 10
years of follow-up studies.
Conclusions Results from this meta-analysis suggest that higher dietary flavonoids intake may
moderately lower the risk of stroke.
Article summary
Strengths and limitations of this study
To our knowledge, this is the largest meta-analysis on flavonoids intake and the risk of stroke. We
also investigated a dose-response relation between flavonoids consumption and risk of stroke.
The possibility of residual confounding or confounding by unmeasured factors, which cannot be
ruled out in any observational study, must be acknowledged. We cannot exclude the possibility of
recall bias in the assessments of diet based on the food frequency questionnaires.
1. Stroke is the second most common cause of death and the second highest cause of disability
worldwide.
2. Epidemiological studies suggest that the intake of flavonoids is beneficial in delaying or
preventing the development of stroke, though results from cohort studies are controversial.
3. Higher dietary flavonoids intake is associated with a significantly reduced risk of stroke.
4. Dose-response analyses indicated a 6% lower risk of stroke per 100 mg/day increment of
flavonoids.
5. Further evidence from preferably randomized controlled studies should explore what kind of
flavonoids can reduce the risk of stroke.
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Introduction
Stroke is the second most common cause of death, as well as the fourth leading cause of lost
productivity and the second highest cause of disability worldwide.1,2
The prevention of stroke is
thus clearly an important public health priority. In recent decades, concern has mounted regarding
the premature incidence and mortality associated with stroke, with growing interest in altering risk
factors and reversing this global epidemic. Among the known risk factors for stroke, dietary
factors, especially dietary flavonoids intake, have aroused particular attention. Clinical studies
have shown that intakes of flavonoids reduce cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk.3-5
Additionally,
experimental studies indicated that flavonoids have been shown to have both antioxidant and
antithrombotic properties.6,7
Over the last 2 decades, many prospective studies have assessed the association of dietary
flavonoids intake and risk of stroke.8-17
Although a recent meta-analysis that combined the results
from 8 cohort studies of flavonol intake and risk of stroke found a significant association of stroke
of 0.86 (95% CI, 0.75 to 0.99) for the highest versus lowest category of flavonol intake,18
the role
of flavonoids intake on stroke prevention is still controversial. In addition, flavonoids intake
differed substantially between studies, which makes it difficult to interpret the summary estimate
based on results from study populations with different ranges of flavonoids intake.19
To fill these gaps, we conducted a dose-response meta-analysis of the current evidence for the
association between flavonoids exposure, including cohort studies of dietary flavonoids, with risk
of stroke.
Methods
Literature search
The search strategy was conducted according to the recommendations of the Meta-analysis of
Observational Studies in Epidemiology (MOOSE).20
We performed a systematic search of
PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane library through February, 2015. The following key words
were used in our search strategies: “flavonoids,” “polyphenols,” “phenolics,” “flavonols,”
“flavones,” “quercetin,” “kaempferol,” “myricetin,” “isorhamnetin,” “apigenin,” “luteolin,” and
“stroke,” “cerebrovascular disease,” “cerebrovascular disorders,” “cerebral infarct,” “ischemic
stroke,” “intracranial hemorrhage,” “intracranial artery disease,” “cardiovascular disease,”
“myocardial ischemia,” “myocardial infarct,” “ischemic heart disease,” “coronary heart disease,”
and “longitudinal studies,” “cohort studies,” “prospective studies,” “follow-up studies.” We
restricted the search to human studies. There were no language restrictions. In addition, we
reviewed the references lists of obtained articles to identify additional relevant studies. When the
same or similar patient cohort was included in several publications, only the most recent or
complete report was selected for analysis.
Study Selection
Studies were selected for the meta-analysis if they fulfilled the following entry criteria: (1) the
study of adult patients had a community-based or population-based, prospective cohort design; (2)
the exposure of interest was intake of dietary flavonoids (including: flavonols, flavones,
flavanones, flavan-3-ols, anthocyanidins, and isoflavones); (3) the outcome of interest was stroke,
including all types of stroke (fatal, nonfatal, ischemic, and hemorrhagic); (4) reported quantitative
estimates of the multivariate-adjusted relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for
stroke incidence or mortality associated with flavonoids intake; and (5) longer than 1 year of
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follow-up. Studies were excluded if (1) the study design was cross-sectional, case-control; (2)
reported unadjusted or only age- or sex-adjusted RR; and (3) shorter than 1 year of follow-up.
Data Abstraction
All data were independently abstracted in duplicate by 2 investigators (ML, and XZ).
Discrepancies were resolved by consensus. When necessary, the original authors were contacted
for supplementary information. The following data were extracted from each study: first author’s
last name, publication year, country where the study was performed, location, number of
participants, participants’ age, follow-up years, assessment of dietary data and stroke, number of
cases, adjusted covariates and study quality.
Assessment of study quality
The Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS) was used to assess the quality of studies.21
The quality of
cohort studies were evaluated in the following three major components: selection of the study
group (0-4 stars), quality of the adjustment for confounding (0-2 stars) and assessment of outcome
in the cohorts (0-3 stars). A higher score represents better methodological quality. The full score
was 9 stars. Studies were graded as the high-quality if they met >8 awarded stars.
Statistical Analysis
The relative risks (RRs) were used as the common measure of association between depression and
stroke, and the hazard ratios (HRs) were considered equivalent to RRs. Data analysis used
multivariate-adjusted outcome data. We converted these values in every study by using their
natural logarithms, and the SEs were calculated from these logarithmic numbers and their
corresponding 95% CIs. When the result on total stroke in our meta-analysis was not available, we
used data from ischemic stroke, nonfatal stroke, or fatal stroke as an equivalent to total stroke.22
We combined these estimates using a random-effects model, which takes into account both
within-study and between-study variabilities.23
In the dose-response analysis, the generalized least
square for trend estimation method described by Greenland and Longnecker24
and Orsini et al25
was used to calculate study-specific slopes (linear trends) and 95% confidence intervals. The
method requires the distributions of cases and person years for exposure categories, and
median/mean of flavonoids intake level for each comparison group. We assigned the midpoint of
the upper and lower boundaries of each comparison group to determine mean flavonoids intake
level if the median or mean intake was not provided. If the lower or upper boundary for the lowest
and highest category, respectively, was not reported, we assumed that the boundary had the same
amplitude as the closest category.19
Additionally, we first created restricted cubic splines with 3
knots at fixed percentiles 25%, 50%, and 75% of the distribution.26
A p value for nonlinearity was
calculated by testing the null hypothesis that the coefficient of the fractional polynomials
component is equal to zero. Heterogeneity among studies was evaluated using the chi-square test
based on Cochran’s Q test and I2 statistic at p<0.10 level of significance,
23 which describes the
percentage of variability in the effect estimates that is due to heterogeneity rather than chance.27
We regard I2 of <40% as “heterogeneity might not be important” and >75% as “considerable
heterogeneity” based on the suggestion of Cochrane Handbook for Systemic Review of
Interventions.28
All available data were conducted in the primary analysis. Subsequent subgroup
analyses were conducted according to stroke outcomes (fatal/nonfatal versus ischemic), follow-up
duration (≤10 years versus >10 years), sex (male versus female versus combined), Geographical
area (United States versus Asian versus European), history of stroke (yes versus no), and study
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quality (high [score> 8] versus low [score ≤8]). To explore possible explanations for
heterogeneity and to test the robustness of the association, we conducted meta-regression,
sensitivity analyses and abovementioned stratified analysis. The possibility of publication bias was
evaluated using the Egger rank correlation test at p<0.10 level of significance and visual
inspection of a funnel plot.29,30
In the case of publication bias, “nonparametric trim-and-fill”
method was used to compute risk estimates corrected for this bias.31
All the statistical analyses
were performed in STATA 12.0 (StataCorp, College Station, TX). p values were 2-sided and p<
0.05 was considered statistically significant.
Results
Literature Search
Figure 1 shows the results of literature research and selection. We initially identified 181 citations.
After exclusion of duplicate records and studies that did not fulfill our inclusion criteria, 21 studies
remained, and we further evaluated the full texts of these 21 publications. Of these, we excluded
11 studies for the following reasons: no stroke outcomes (n=4), duplicate reports (n=3) and review
(n=4). Finally, 10 studies met the inclusion criteria and were included in the meta-analysis.8-17
Study Characteristics
The characteristics of the studies and of their participants are presented in Table 1 and
Supplemental table 1. A total of 10 studies involving 258,158 participants and more than 4,581
stroke cases were included in the meta-analysis.8-17
Among 10 studies, 3 were conducted primarily
in the United States,11,14,16
1 from an Asian country (Singapore),17
and 6 studies were from
European countries (including Finland, Netherlands).8-10,12,13,15
The number of participants ranged
from 755 in the study by Marniemi et al12
to 69,622 in the study by Cassidy et al.16
3 studies
included both men and women,10,12,17
3 studies included only men,8,9,15
and 4 studies only
women.11,13,14,16
The follow-up duration ranged from 6.1 to 28 years,8,10
with a median of 14.35
years. The dietary assessment of flavonoids intake varied across studies, in most of the studies,
intake of flavonoids was measured by food frequency questionnaires (FFQs) and dietary history
interview. In most of the studies, stroke was assessed by medical records or death certificates
based on ICD-8,9,10. All studies provided adjusted risk estimates (e.g., sex, body mass index,
smoking, education, et al), overall quality scores ranged for 7 to 9, and the median score was 8.
Flavonoids intake and Stroke Risk
The multivariable adjusted RRs of fatal or nonfatal stroke in relation to dietary flavonoids intake
from individual studies and the combined RR are presented in figure 2. For the 10 studies, only 1
showed that flavonoids intake was associated with decreased risk of stroke.10
Overall, participants
with the highest dietary flavonoids intake, compared with the lowest, experienced a significant
decreased risk for development of stroke (combined RR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.82-0.98; Figure 2) after
adjustment for other risk factors. We saw no heterogeneity among studies (p = 0.733, I2
= 0%).
Among 10 studies, 4 studies were eligible for the dose-response analysis of flavonoids intake and
risk of stroke.9,14,16,17
Using a restricted cubic splines model, dose-response analysis found a
statistically nonsignificant inverse association with risk of stroke per 100-mg/day increment of
flavonoids intake (relative risk 0.94, 95% confidence interval 0.83 to 1.06, I2 = 0%; Figure 3 and
4). No publication bias was observed (p = 0.962).
Stratifying analysis
In most subgroups, dietary flavonoids intake was not associated with stroke. Stratifying by sex,
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the associations between dietary flavonoids intake and risk of stroke were similar between males
and females (table 2). The pooled RR of stroke were 0.88 (95% CI: 0.75-1.03) from studies
conducted in the United States, 0.88 (95% CI: 0.77-100) in European, and 0.97 (95% CI:
0.81-1.16) in Asian (table 2). Stratifying by duration, we observed the protective effect of dietary
flavonoids intake in longer than 10 years of follow-up studies. The associations were more evident
in several strata of study characteristics (table 2).
Sensitivity Analysis and Publication Bias
We tested the robustness of our results in sensitivity analysis, when a single study included in the
meta-analysis was deleted at a time, the results of meta-analysis remained largely unchanged,
indicating that the results of the present meta-analysis were stable (data not shown). Visual
inspection of the funnel plot identified asymmetry (Supplemental figure 1). There was no
statistical evidence of publication bias among studies for stroke risk by using Egger test (p =
0.222).
Meta Regression
In this meta-analysis, although no heterogeneity was observed among individual studies, a
multivariate regression was conducted to explore the potential sources of heterogeneity under
stroke. The results of regression suggested that stroke outcomes, follow-up duration, sex,
geographical area, history of stroke, and study quality were no significant source of heterogeneity.
Discussion
Our meta-analysis of 10 prospective studies indicates that dietary flavonoids intake may be
inversely associated with risk of stroke. In addition, dose-response analysis found a statistically
nonsignificant inverse association, with a RR of 0.94 (95% CI, 0.83-1.06) for each 100-mg/day
increment of flavonoids intake.
Potential benefits of flavonoids
Flavonoids, constitute a large class of polyphenols, are widely distributed in plants and are present
in considerable amounts in fruits, vegetables, tea and red wine. These bioactive polyphenols are
non-energetic, non-nutrient secondary metabolites present in plants and cannot be synthesizes by
humans.32
In recent decades, overwhelming evidence indicates that intake of flavonoids was
associated with well-known risk-factors for CVD. There was also some evidence that flavonoids
may have a direct role in the development of CVD (e.g., coronary heart disease, stroke, et al).33,34
In addition, although there are many putative biological mechanisms underlying a possible
cardioprotective role for flavonoids,35
including antioxidant,6 reductions in platelet aggregation,
36
anti-inflammatory,37
and the recovery of endothelial function properties of some of the compounds,
the effect of individual components or interactions between flavonoids is still largely unknown,
flavonols and isoflavones intake may explain some of this beneficial effect.
Meanwhile, the exact mechanism for the beneficial effect by which flavonoids intake may protect
against the development of stroke is still ambiguous. The first mechanism is the improved effect
of flavonoids on the amelioration of insulin resistance, flavonoids, especially quercetin, may be
beneficial in insulin resistance by inhibition of intestinal glucose transporters.38
Moreover,
flavonoids reduced mitochondrial lipid peroxidation and loss of mitochondrial transmembrane
electric potential caused by oxidative stress induced by ADP plus iron. Thus, it was mainly
attributed to antioxidant effects.39
The third mechanism is the protective action of flavonoids on
the anti-inflammatory properties in the brain, it may be attributable to raft disrupting and
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antioxidant effects.40
Because the flavonoids are very diverse in their bioavailability and
bioactivity, the rationale for assuming that intakes to all flavonoid classes might have effects on
stroke needs more consideration.
Results in relation to other studies
Over the past decades, despite extensive studies that investigated the role of flavonoids intake on
either cardiovascular diseases or cerebrovascular diseases, it remains unclear whether the
association between flavonoids intake and risk of stroke is causal. Some of the studies suggested
flavonoids associated with increased risk of stroke,10
the others failed to find the association.8,9
Importantly, the possibility of reverse causality should be addressed. Previous meta-analysis of
flavonol intake and risk of stroke showed that flavonol intake was inversely associated with stroke
incidence.34
That meta-analysis included 6 prospective cohorts studies, of which were from 3
different countries, 4 were conducted in Europe (3 in Finland and 1 in The Netherlands) and 2 in
the United States. The inverse associations between flavonol intake and stroke were observed in
two prospective cohort studies (Zutphen Elderly Study and Kuopio Study). Weak and
nonsignificant inverse associations were found in the Finnish Mobile Clinic Study and Women’s
Health Study, whereas no associations were noted in the Iowa Women’s Health Study and
Alpha-Tocopherol, Beta-Carotene Cancer Prevention Study. The results for flavonol were
consistent with our findings on flavonoids. But the data from studies included by previous
meta-analysis were limited to August 2009.34
Interestingly, since then many new studies involving
relationship between flavonoids intake and risk of stroke were published.16,17
To obtain a more
comprehensive estimate of the putative influence of the flavonoids on stroke, we conducted a
meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies. To our knowledge, this meta-analysis is the largest to
reveal the potential relationship between dietary flavonoids intake and risk of stroke. However,
most studies assess dietary flavonoids intake based on self-reported questionnaires using FFQs,
and medical records were not always available for stroke classification, the possibility that
misclassification of flavonoids intake and stroke was inevitable and likely to bias true association
among individual studies.
Strengths and limitations
Compared with the previous meta-analyses,18,34
our study has several more important strengths.
The present meta-analysis included 2 times more participants and 2 times more stroke cases, to
our knowledge, this is the largest meta-analysis on flavonoids intake and the risk of stroke. We
also explored possible source of heterogeneity using subgroup analyses and the meta-regression
method, all of them were no significant. Moreover, the presence of a dose-response relationship
further strengthened the association of dietary flavonoids intake with risk of stroke. Therefore, the
results should be more reliable.
In interpreting the results, some limitations of this meta-analysis should be acknowledged. First,
one limitation of any meta-analysis of observational studies is that residual confounding or
confounding by unmeasured factors (such as intake of other nutrients) may have affected the
significant association between flavonoids intake and stroke risk. Thus, these findings should be
treated with cautions. Second, we cannot exclude the possibility of recall bias in the assessments
of diet based on the FFQs. However, the prospective study design and exclusion of participants
with chronic diseases at baseline should minimize such bias. Third, the noticeable limitation of our
study was the potential for bias due to inevitable measurement error and misclassification,
especially for individual with lower consumption levels. We attempted to reduce measurement
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error in adjusting for energy or fiber intake and using of cumulatively averaged intake levels.
Fourth, we could not study the main sources of flavonoids because of the insufficient data.
However, it is most likely that the main source of flavonols, flavones and flavanones have been
the same.15
Finally, the possible limitation is due to language bias. We attempted to minimize this
bias by searching major electronic databases with no language restriction. However, several
articles published in non-English or unpublished reports might not appear in international journal
databases, and could be omitted by our searches.41
Conclusions
In summary, results from this meta-analysis suggest that higher dietary flavonoids intake may
moderately lower the risk of stroke after adjustment of established cardiovascular risk factors.
Further preferably randomized controlled studies are needed to evaluate the effects of flavonoids
intake on stroke risk.
Contributors: ML and ZT conceived and designed the study. ML and WH searched the databases
and checked them according to the eligible criteria and exclusion criteria. ZT helped develop
search strategies. XZ and WH extract quantitative data. XZ, and WH analyzed the data. ML wrote
the draft of the paper. All authors contributed to writing, reviewing, or revising the paper. ZT is the
guarantor.
Funding: This work was not funded by any foundation or program.
Competing interests: All authors have completed the ICMJE uniform disclosure form at
www.icmje.org/coi_disclosure.pdf (available on request from the corresponding author) and
declare: no support from any organization for the submitted work; no financial relationships with
any organizations that might have an interest in the submitted work in the previous three years; no
other relationships or activities that could appear to have influenced the submitted work.
Ethical approval: Not required.
Data sharing: No additional data available.
Figures Information
Figure 1. Process of literature search and study selection.
(TIFF)
Figure 2. Random effects analysis of fully adjusted studies for highest versus lowest intake of
flavonoids and risk of stroke.
(TIFF)
Figure 3. Dose-response relationship between dietary flavonoids intake and stroke risk.
(TIFF)
Figure 4. Forest plot of flavonoids and risk of stroke.
(TIFF)
Appendix figure information
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Supplemental figure 1. Egger funnel plot for detection of publication bias for stroke risk.
(DOC)
Appendix table information
Supplemental table 1. Confounding factors and methods for adjustment.
(DOC)
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women. Am J Clin Nutr 2003;77:1400-8.
12. Marniemi J, Alanen E, Impivaara O, et al. Dietary and serum vitamins and minerals as
predictors of myocardial infarction and stroke in elderly subjects. Nutr Metab Cardiovasc Dis
2005;15:188-97.
13. van der Schouw YT, Kreijkamp-Kaspers S, Peeters PH, et al. Prospective study on usual
dietary phytoestrogen intake and cardiovascular disease risk in Western women. Circulation
2005;111:465-71.
14. Mink PJ, Scrafford CG, Barraj LM, et al. Flavonoid intake and cardiovascular disease
mortality: a prospective study in postmenopausal women. Am J Clin Nutr 2007;85:895-909.
15. Mursu J, Voutilainen S, Nurmi T, et al. Flavonoid intake and the risk of ischaemic stroke and
CVD mortality in middle-aged Finnish men: the Kuopio Ischaemic Heart Disease Risk Factor
Study. Br J Nutr 2008;100:890-5.
16. Cassidy A, Rimm EB, O'Reilly EJ, et al. Dietary flavonoids and risk of stroke in women.
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Stroke 2012;43:946-51.
17. Talaei M, Koh WP, van Dam RM, et al. Dietary soy intake is not associated with risk of
cardiovascular disease mortality in Singapore Chinese adults. J Nutr 2014;144:921-8.
18. Wang ZM, Zhao D, Nie ZL, et al. Flavonol intake and stroke risk: a meta-analysis of cohort
studies. Nutrition 2014;30:518-23.
19. Larsson SC, Orsini N, Wolk A. Dietary potassium intake and risk of stroke: a dose-response
meta-analysis of prospective studies. Stroke 2011;42:2746-50.
20. Stroup DF, Berlin JA, Morton SC, et al. Meta-analysis of observational studies in
epidemiology: a proposal for reporting. Meta-analysis Of Observational Studies in
Epidemiology (MOOSE) group. JAMA 2000;283:2008-12.
21. Stang A. Critical evaluation of the Newcastle-Ottawa scale for the assessment of the quality of
nonrandomized studies in meta-analyses. Eur J Epidemiol 2010;25:603-5.
22. Pan A, Sun Q, Okereke OI, et al. Depression and risk of stroke morbidity and mortality: a
meta-analysis and systematic review. JAMA 2011;306:1241-9.
23. DerSimonian R, Laird N. Meta-analysis in clinical trials. Control Clin Trials 1986;7:177-88.
24. Greenland S, Longnecker MP. Methods for trend estimation from summarized dose-response
data, with applications to meta-analysis. Am J Epidemiol 1992;135:1301-9.
25. Orsini N, Li R, Wolk A, et al. Meta-analysis for linear and nonlinear dose-response relations:
examples, an evaluation of approximations, and software. Am J Epidemiol 2012;175:66-73.
26. Harrell FE Jr, Lee KL, Pollock BG. Regression models in clinical studies: determining
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2003;327:557-60.
28. Higgins JPT, Green S. Cochrane Handbook for systematic Reviews of Interventions. Oxford,
UK: The Cochrane Collaboration; 2011.
29. Begg CB, Mazumdar M. Operating characteristics of a rank correlation test for publication
bias. Biometrics 1994;50:1088-101.
30. Sterne JA, Egger M. Funnel plots for detecting bias in meta-analysis: guidelines on choice of
axis. J Clin Epidemiol 2001;54:1046-55.
31. Duval S, Tweedie R. Trim and fill: A simple funnel-plot-based method of testing and adjusting
for publication bias in meta-analysis. Biometrics 2000;56:455-63.
32. Bravo L. Polyphenols: chemistry, dietary sources, metabolism, and nutritional significance.
Nutr Rev 1998;56:317-33.
33. Huxley RR, Neil HA. The relation between dietary flavonol intake and coronary heart disease
mortality: a meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies. Eur J Clin Nutr 2003;57:904-8.
34. Hollman PC, Geelen A, Kromhout D. Dietary flavonol intake may lower stroke risk in men
and women. J Nutr 2010;140:600-4.
35. Geleijnse JM, PCh H. Flavonoids and cardiovascular health: which compounds, what
mechanisms. Am J Clin Nutr 2008;88:12-3.
36. Murphy KJ, Chronopoulos AK, Singh I, et al. Dietary flavanols and procyanidin oligomers
from cocoa (Theobroma cacao) inhibit platelet function. Am J Clin Nutr 2003;77:1466-73.
37. Landberg R, Sun Q, Rimm EB, et al. Selected dietary flavonoids are associated with markers
of inflammation and endothelial dysfunction in U.S. women. J Nutr 2011;141:618-25.
38. Li YQ, Zhou FC, Gao F, et al. Comparative evaluation of quercetin, isoquercetin and rutin as
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inhibitors of alpha-glucosidase. J Agric Food Chem 2009;57:11463-8.
39. Silva B, Oliveira PJ, Dias A, et al. Quercetin, kaempferol and biapigenin from Hypericum
perforatum are neuroprotective against excitotoxic insults. Neurotox Res 2008;13:265-79.
40. Perez-Vizcaino F, Duarte J. Flavonols and cardiovascular disease. Mol Aspects Med
2010;31:478-94.
41. Li M, Hou W, Zhang X, et al. Hyperuricemia and risk of stroke: a systematic review and
meta-analysis of prospective studies. Atherosclerosis 2014;232:265-70.
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Table 1. Characteristics of studies included in the meta-analysis
First author,
publication (yr) Country/Population
No. Participants (%
male)
Age rang or
mean (yr)
Follow-Up
Duration (yr)
Assessment of
dietary data
Stroke
Ascertainment
No. of stroke
cases
Pre-stroke
Excluded
Study
Quality
Hirvonen et al.8
2000
Finland/European
26497 (100)
50-69
6.1
A self-administered,
modified diet history
method
Any type of stroke
based on ICD-8, 9
codes
Ischemic: 736
Yes
8
Arts et al.9 2001
Netherlands/European
806 (100)
65-84
15
A cross-check
dietary history
method
Any type of stroke
based on ICD-9
codes
Fatal: 47,
Nonfatal: 88
No
7
Knekt et al.10
2002
Finland/European
9131 (NA)
30-69
28
A dietary history
interview
Any type of stroke
based on ICD-8
codes
Fatal or
nonfatal: 681
No
8
Sesso et al.11
2003
United States
38445 (0)
53.9
6.9
A food-frequency
questionnaire
Any type of stroke
based on clinical
diagnosis
Fatal or
nonfatal: NA
Yes
9
Marniemi et al.12
2005
Finland/European
755 (47.8)
65-99
10
A dietary history
interview
Any type of stroke
based on ICD-9
codes
Fatal: 45,
Nonfatal: 25
Yes
8
van der Schouw et
al.13
2005
Netherlands/European
16165 (0)
49-70
6.3
A validated
food-frequency
questionnaire
Any type of stroke
based on ICD-9
codes
Fatal or
nonfatal: 147
Yes
9
Mink et al.14
2007
United States
34489 (0)
55-69
16
A food-frequency
questionnaire
Any type of stroke
based on ICD-9
codes
Fatal: 469
Yes
9
Mursu et al.15
2008
Finland/European
1950 (100)
42-60
15.2
An instructed 4d
food recording by
Any type of stroke
based on ICD-9, 10
Ischemic: 102
Yes
9
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household measures codes
Cassidy et al.16
2012
United States
69622 (0)
30-55
14
A semiquantitative
food-frequency
questionnaires
interview
Any type of stroke
based on medical
records, autopsy
reports, and death
certificates
Ischemic: 943
Yes
8
Talaei et al.17
2014
Singapore/Asian
60298 (44.5)
45-74
14.7
A semiquantitative
food-frequency
questionnaires
interview
Any type of stroke
based on ICD-9
codes
Fatal: 1298
No
8
Abbreviations: ICD: international classification of diseases.
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Table 2. Stratified analyses of flavonoids intake and stroke risk
Group No. of studies RR (95% CI) Heterogeneity test
P value of pooled effect χχχχ2 P value I
2, %
Overall studies
Fatal/nonfatal stroke 10 0.90 (0.82-0.98) 2.35 0.733 0 0.019
Ischemic stroke 3 0.93 (0.80-1.07) 1.03 0.609 0 0.301
Geographical area
United States 3 0.88 (0.75-1.03) 1.59 0.511 0 0.112
Asian 1 0.97 (0.81-1.16) 0.33 - - 0.740
European 6 0.88 (0.77-1.00) 1.95 0.577 0 0.051
History of stroke
Yes 3 0.89 (0.78-1.02) 1.66 0.683 0 0.096
No 7 0.90 (0.80-1.02) 1.62 0.351 4.6 0.105
Sex
Male 3 0.95 (0.79-1.14) 0.55 0.651 0 0.580
Female 4 0.89 (0.77-1.04) 1.45 0.613 0 0.114
Combined 3 0.86 (0.72-1.04) 1.58 0.227 32.6 0.148
Mean follow-up, years
≤10 4 0.90 (0.74-1.09) 1.10 0.340 10.7 0.271
>10 6 0.89 (0.81-0.99) 2.09 0.750 0 0.036
Quality score
High, score>8 4 0.87 (0.70-1.07) 1.34 0.534 0 0.181
Low, score≤8 6 0.91 (0.82-1.00) 1.97 0.589 0 0.048
Abbreviations: CI = confidence interval; RR = relative risk.
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152x101mm (300 x 300 DPI)
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Egger's publication bias plot
sta
nd
ard
ize
d e
ffect
precision0 5 10
-2
-1
0
1
Supplemental figure 1 Egger funnel plot for detection of publication bias for stroke risk
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Supplemental table 1. Confounding factors and methods for adjustment
Reference Adjusted covariates Total stroke Nonfatal stroke Fatal Stroke Ischemic Stroke Hemorrhagic
stroke
Hirvonen et al.8 2000
Age, BMI, SBP, DBP, height, cholesterol, diabetes, history
CHD, smoking, alcohol, supplementation group and education.
equal to
ischemic stroke
results
0.98 (0.80-1.21)
Arts et al.9 2001
Age, BMI, smoking, alcohol, physical activity, coffee, diet,
energy, FA, prescribed diet, intakes of fish, coffee, cholesterol,
fiber, fish, vit C, vit E and β-carotene
0.92
(0.51-1.68)
Knekt et al.10
2002
Age, sex, geographic area, occupation, BMI, BP, cholesterol,
diabetes, region, SE and smoking
0.79
(0.64-0.98)
Sesso et al.11
2003
Age, exercise, aspirin, BMI, BP, postmenopausal hormone use,
cholesterol, diabetes, history of CHD, smoking, alcohol, F﹠V,
fiber, folate and vit E.
0.70
(0.46-1.07)
Marniemi et al.12
2005
Age, sex, smoking, functional capacity and weight adjusted
energy intake.
0.65
(0.34-1.23)
van der Schouw et
al.13
2005
Age, BMI, cholesterol, physical activity, diabetes,
hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, HRT, OC, MS, smoking,
alcohol, energy, F﹠A, fiber, protein, fruit, vegetable and
menopausal status.
1.05
(0.64-1.70)
Mink et al.14
2007
Age, BMI, BP, diabetes, HRT, MS, education, smoking,
activity, estrogen use, WHR and energy
equal to fatal
stroke results
0.94 (0.69-1.29)
Mursu et al.15
2008
Age, examination years, BMI, SBP, HM, cholesterol, TAG,
maximal oxygen uptake, smoking, history of CVD, diabetes,
alcohol, energy-adjusted intake of folate and vit E.
equal to
ischemic stroke
results
0.71 (0.37-1.37)
Cassidy et al.16
2012 Age, physical activity, smoking, HRT, BMI, aspirin use, equal to 0.90 (0.73-1.11)
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diabetes, hypercholesterolemia, history of CHD, alcohol,
menopausal status, energy, use of multivitamins and history of
hypertension
ischemic stroke
results
Talaei et al.17
2014
Age, sex, dialect, year of interview, educational level, BMI,
physical activity, smoking duration, alcohol, diabetes,
hypertension, CHD, stroke, energy and fiber
equal to fatal
stroke results
0.97 (0.81-1.16)
Abbreviations: BMI, body mass index; CVD, cardiovascular disease; CHD, coronary heart disease; BP, blood pressure; SBP: systolic blood pressures; DBP: diastolic blood
pressures; vit C: vitamin C; vit E: vitamin E; FA: fatty acids; F﹠V: fruit and vegetable intake; MS: menopausal status; HRT: hormonal replacement therapy; OC: oral
contraceptives; WHR: waist-to-hip ratio; HM: hypertension medication。
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Supplemental table 2. Flavonoid subclasses and compounds for each study.
Reference Adjusted covariates
Hirvonen et al.8 2000 Quercetin, kaempherol, myricetin, luteolin, and apigenin..
Arts et al.9 2001 Quercetin, kaempferol, myricetin, luteolin, and apigenin..
Knekt et al.10 2002
4 flavonols (kaempferol, quercetin, myricetin, and
isorhamnetin), 2 flavones (apigenin and luteolin), and 3
flavanones (hesperetin, naringenin, and eriodictyol).
Sesso et al.11 2003 Quercetin, kaempferol, myricetin, luteolin, and apigenin..
Marniemi et al.12 2005 Quercetin, kaempferol, myricetin, luteolin, and apigenin..
van der Schouw et al.13
2005
Daidzein, Genistein, Formononetin, Biochanin A.
Mink et al.14 2007
4 flavonols (kaempferol, quercetin, myricetin, and
isorhamnetin), 2 flavones (apigenin and luteolin), and 3
flavanones (hesperetin, naringenin, and eriodictyol).
Mursu et al.15 2008
Flavonols, flavones, flavanones, flavan-3-ols and
anthocyanidins.
Cassidy et al.16 2012
4 flavonols (kaempferol, quercetin, myricetin, and
isorhamnetin), 2 flavones (apigenin and luteolin), 6
anthocyanins (cyaniding, delphinindin, malvidin, pelargonidin,
petunidin, peonidin), 2 flavan-3-ols (catechins, epicatachins), 3
polymers (proanthocyanidins, theaflavins, thearubigins), and 3
flavanones (hesperetin, naringenin, and eriodictyol).
Talaei et al.17 2014 Genistein, daidzein, and glycitein.
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MOOSE Checklist
Dietary flavonoids intake and the risk of stroke: A dose-response
meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies
Min Li master student1, Xiaowei Zhang master student
1, Wenshang Hou master
student1, Zhenyu Tang associate professor
1
1Department of Neurology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University,
Nanchang 330006, Jiangxi Province, People’s Republic of China
Correspondence to: Zhenyu Tang, Department of Neurology, The Second Affiliated
Hospital of Nanchang University, No. 1, Minde Road, Nanchang, Jiangxi 330006,
People’s Republic of China
Email: [email protected]
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Criteria Brief description of how the criteria were handled in
the meta-analysis
Reporting of background should
include
√ Problem definition Stroke is the second most common cause of death, as well
as the fourth leading cause of lost productivity and the
second highest cause of disability worldwide. The
prevention of stroke is thus clearly an important public
health priority. In recent decades, concern has mounted
regarding the premature incidence and mortality
associated with stroke, with growing interest in altering
risk factors and reversing this global epidemic. Among
the known risk factors for stroke, dietary factors,
especially dietary flavonoids intake, have aroused
particular attention. Clinical studies have shown that
intakes of flavonoids reduce cardiovascular disease
(CVD) risk. Additionally, experimental studies indicated
that flavonoids have been shown to have both antioxidant
and antithrombotic properties.
√ Hypothesis statement Flavonoids intake decrease risk of stroke.
√ Description of study outcomes Stroke.
√ Type of exposure or
intervention used
Flavonoids
√ Type of study designs used We included (1) original studies (eg, not review articles,
meeting abstracts, editorials, or commentaries); (2)
prospective cohort design (eg, not cross sectional design,
case-control design).
√ Study population We placed no restriction.
Reporting of search strategy
should include
√ Qualifications of searchers The credentials of the two investigators WH and ML are
indicated in the author list.
√ Search strategy, including time
period included in the
synthesis and keywords
PubMed from 1965 –February 2015
Embase from 1974 –February 2015
Cochrane library from 1990- February 2015
Keywords: (“flavonoids,” “polyphenols,” “phenolics,”
“flavonols,” “flavones,” “quercetin,” “kaempferol,”
“myricetin,” “isorhamnetin,” “apigenin,” “luteolin,” and
“stroke,” “cerebrovascular disease,” “cerebrovascular
disorders,” “cerebral infarct,” “ischemic stroke,”
“intracranial hemorrhage,” “intracranial artery disease,”
“cardiovascular disease,” “myocardial ischemia,”
“myocardial infarct,” “ischemic heart disease,” “coronary
heart disease,”) AND (“longitudinal studies,” “cohort
studies,” “prospective studies,” “follow-up studies.”).
√ Databases and registries
searched
PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane library
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√ Search software used, name
and version, including special
features
We did not employ a search software. EndNote was used
to merge retrieved citations and eliminate duplications
√ Use of hand searching We hand-searched bibliographies of retrieved papers for
additional references,
√ List of citations located and
those excluded, including
justifications
Details of the literature search process are outlined in the
process of literature search and study selection. The
citation list is available upon request
√ Method of addressing articles
published in languages other
than English
We placed no restrictions on language; local scientists
fluent in the original language of the article were
contacted for translation
√ Method of handling abstracts
and unpublished studies
We had contacted a few authors for unpublished studies
on the association.
√ Description of any contact with
authors
We contacted authors who had conducted multivariate
analysis with coronary heart disease as a covariate, but
the exposure of interest was not intake of dietary
flavonoids.
Reporting of methods should
include
√ Description of relevance or
appropriateness of studies
assembled for assessing the
hypothesis to be tested
Detailed inclusion and exclusion criteria were described
in the methods section.
√ Rationale for the selection and
coding of data
Data extracted from each of the studies were relevant to
the population characteristics, study design, exposure,
outcome, and possible effect modifiers of the association.
√ Assessment of confounding Restricted the analysis to age- or sex-adjusted estimates
only. Conducted sensitivity analyses by eliminating
studies that had not adjusted for possible confounders.
√ Assessment of study quality,
including blinding of quality
assessors; stratification or
regression on possible
predictors of study results
The Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS) was used to assess
the quality of studies. The quality of cohort studies were
evaluated in the following three major components:
selection of the study group (0-4 stars), quality of the
adjustment for confounding (0-2 stars) and assessment of
outcome in the cohorts (0-3 stars). A higher score
represents better methodological quality. The full score
was 9 stars. Studies were graded as the high-quality if
they met >8 awarded stars.
√ Assessment of heterogeneity Heterogeneity of the studies were explored within two
types of study designs using Cochrane’s Q test of
heterogeneity and I2 statistic that provides the relative
amount of variance of the summary effect due to the
between-study heterogeneity.
√ Description of statistical
methods in sufficient detail to
be replicated
Description of methods of meta-analyses, sensitivity
analyses, subgroup analyses, meta regression and
assessment of publication bias are detailed in the
methods.
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√ Provision of appropriate tables
and graphics
We included 1 flow chart, several summary tables and
figures.
Reporting of results should
include
√ Graph summarizing individual
study estimates and overall
estimate
Figure 2, 3 and 4
√ Table giving descriptive
information for each study
included
Table 1 and Supplemental table 1
√ Results of sensitivity testing
Table 2
√ Indication of statistical
uncertainty of findings
95% confidence intervals were presented with all
summary estimates, I2 values and results of sensitivity
analyses
Reporting of discussion should
include
√ Quantitative assessment of bias Subgroup analyses indicate heterogeneity in strengths of
the association due to most common biases in cohort
studies.
√ Justification for exclusion We excluded studies that had not adjusted for or were
standardized by age or sex, a potential confounder, and
used different exposure or outcome assessment for the
comparison groups.
√ Assessment of quality of
included studies
We discussed the results of the subgroup analyses, and
potential reasons for the observed heterogeneity.
Reporting of conclusions should
include
√ Consideration of alternative
explanations for observed
results
We discussed that potential unmeasured confounders such
as other chronic diseases may have caused residual
confounding, but the measured factors that are correlated
with such confounders would have mitigated the bias.
We noted that the variations in the strengths of
association may be due to true population differences, or
to differences in quality of studies.
√ Generalization of the
conclusions
Our meta-analysis suggests that dietary flavonoids intake
may be inversely associated with risk of stroke. In
addition, dose-response analysis found a statistically
nonsignificant inverse association, with a relative risk of
0.94 (95% confidence intervals, 0.83-1.06) for each 100-
mg/day increment of flavonoids intake.
√ Guidelines for future research We recommend future preferably randomized controlled
studies should explore what kind of flavonoids can reduce
the risk of stroke.
√ Disclosure of funding source No separate funding was necessary for the undertaking of
this systematic review.
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Dietary flavonoid intake and the risk of stroke: A dose-
response
meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies
Journal: BMJ Open
Manuscript ID bmjopen-2015-008680.R2
Article Type: Research
Date Submitted by the Author: 08-Feb-2016
Complete List of Authors: Tang, Zhenyu; The Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang 330006, Jiangxi Province, People’s Republic of China, Department of Neurology
Li, Min; The Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang 330006, Jiangxi Province, People’s Republic of China, Department of Neurology Zhang, Xiaowei; The Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang 330006, Jiangxi Province, People’s Republic of China, Department of Neurology Hou, Wenshang; The Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang 330006, Jiangxi Province, People’s Republic of China, Department of Neurology
<b>Primary Subject Heading</b>:
Evidence based practice
Secondary Subject Heading: Cardiovascular medicine, Evidence based practice, Neurology, Nutrition and
metabolism, Public health
Keywords: Stroke < NEUROLOGY, NUTRITION & DIETETICS, Epidemiology < INFECTIOUS DISEASES
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Dietary flavonoid intake and the risk of stroke: A dose-response
meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies
Zhenyu Tang associate professora,1,*, Min Li master student
a,1, Xiaowei Zhang
master studenta, Wenshang Hou master student
a
a Department of Neurology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang
330006, Jiangxi Province, People’s Republic of China
* Correspondence to: Zhenyu Tang, Department of Neurology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of
Nanchang University, No. 1, Minde Road, Nanchang, Jiangxi 330006, People’s Republic of China
1 Zhenyu Tang and Min Li contributed equally to this work.
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Abstract
Objective To clarify and quantify the potential association between the intake of flavonoids and
risk of stroke.
Design Meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies.
Data source Studies published before February 2015 identified through electronic searches using
PubMed, Embase and the Cochrane Library.
Eligibility criteria for selecting studies Prospective cohort studies with relative risks and 95%
confidence intervals for stroke according to the intake of flavonoids (assessed as dietary intake).
Results The meta-analysis yielded 10 prospective cohort studies involving 258,158 participants
and more than 4,581 stroke cases. The pooled estimate of multivariate relative risk of stroke for
the highest compared with the lowest dietary flavonoid intake was 0.90 (95% confidence interval,
0.82-0.98; p = 0.019). Dose-response analysis indicated that the summary relative risk of stroke
for an increase of 100 mg flavonoids consumed per day was 0.94 (95% confidence interval,
0.83-1.06) without heterogeneity among studies (I2 = 0%). Stratifying by duration, the relative risk
of stroke for flavonoid intake was 0.89 (95% confidence interval, 0.81-0.99) in longer than 10
years of follow-up studies.
Conclusions Results from this meta-analysis suggest that higher dietary flavonoid intake may
moderately lower the risk of stroke.
Article summary
Strengths of this study
1. This is the largest meta-analysis on flavonoid intake and the risk of stroke.
2. Higher dietary flavonoid intake is associated with a significantly reduced risk of stroke.
3. Dose-response analyses indicated a 6% lower risk of stroke per 100 mg/day increment of
flavonoids.
Limitations of this study
4. The possibility of residual confounding or confounding by unmeasured factors, which cannot be
ruled out in any observational study, must be acknowledged.
5. We cannot exclude the possibility of recall bias in the assessments of diet based on the food
frequency questionnaires.
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Introduction
Stroke is the second most common cause of death, as well as the fourth leading cause of lost
productivity and the second highest cause of disability worldwide.1,2
The prevention of stroke is
thus clearly an important public health priority. In recent decades, concern has mounted regarding
the premature incidence and mortality associated with stroke, with growing interest in altering risk
factors and reversing this global epidemic. Among the known risk factors for stroke, dietary
factors, especially dietary flavonoids intake, have aroused particular attention. Clinical studies
have shown that intakes of flavonoids reduce cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk.3-5
Additionally,
experimental studies indicated that flavonoids have been shown to have both antioxidant and
antithrombotic properties.6,7
Over the last 2 decades, many prospective studies have assessed the association of dietary
flavonoids intake and risk of stroke.8-17
Although a recent meta-analysis that combined the results
from 8 cohort studies of flavonol intake and risk of stroke found a significant association of stroke
of 0.86 (95% CI, 0.75 to 0.99) for the highest versus lowest category of flavonol intake,18
the role
of flavonoid intake on stroke prevention is still controversial. In addition, flavonoid intake differed
substantially between studies, which makes it difficult to interpret the summary estimate based on
results from study populations with different flavonoid intakes.19
To fill these gaps, we conducted a dose-response meta-analysis of the current evidence for the
association between flavonoids exposure, including cohort studies of dietary flavonoids, with risk
of stroke.
Methods
Literature search
The search strategy was conducted according to the recommendations of the Meta-analysis of
Observational Studies in Epidemiology (MOOSE).20
We performed a systematic search of
PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane library through February, 2015. The following key words
were used in our search strategies: “flavonoids,” “polyphenols,” “phenolics,” “flavonols,”
“flavones,” “quercetin,” “kaempferol,” “myricetin,” “isorhamnetin,” “apigenin,” “luteolin,” and
“stroke,” “cerebrovascular disease,” “cerebrovascular disorders,” “cerebral infarct,” “ischemic
stroke,” “intracranial hemorrhage,” “intracranial artery disease,” “cardiovascular disease,”
“myocardial ischemia,” “myocardial infarct,” “ischemic heart disease,” “coronary heart disease,”
and “longitudinal studies,” “cohort studies,” “prospective studies,” “follow-up studies.” We
restricted the search to human studies. There were no language restrictions. In addition, we
reviewed the reference lists of obtained articles and contacted authors to identify additional
relevant studies and information. When the same or similar patient cohort was included in several
publications, only the most recent or complete report was selected for analysis.
Study Selection
Studies were selected for the meta-analysis if they fulfilled the following entry criteria: (1) the
study of adult patients had a community-based or population-based, prospective cohort design; (2)
the exposure of interest was intake of dietary flavonoids (including: flavonols, flavones,
flavanones, flavan-3-ols, anthocyanidins, and isoflavones); (3) the outcome of interest was stroke,
including all types of stroke (fatal, nonfatal, ischemic, and hemorrhagic); (4) reported quantitative
estimates of the multivariate-adjusted relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for
stroke incidence or mortality associated with flavonoids intake; and (5) longer than 1 year of
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follow-up. Studies were excluded if (1) the study design was cross-sectional, case-control; (2)
reported unadjusted or only age- or sex-adjusted RR; and (3) shorter than 1 year of follow-up.
Data Abstraction
All data were independently abstracted in duplicate by 2 investigators (ML, and XZ).
Discrepancies were resolved by consensus. When necessary, the original authors were contacted
for supplementary information. The following data were extracted from each study: first author’s
last name, publication year, country where the study was performed, location, number of
participants, participants’ age, follow-up years, assessment of dietary data and stroke, number of
cases, adjusted covariates and study quality.
Assessment of study quality
The Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS) was used to assess the quality of studies.21
The quality of
cohort studies were evaluated in the following three major components: selection of the study
group (0-4 stars), quality of the adjustment for confounding (0-2 stars) and assessment of outcome
in the cohorts (0-3 stars). A higher score represents better methodological quality. The full score
was 9 stars. Studies were graded as the high-quality if they met >8 awarded stars.
Statistical Analysis
The relative risks (RRs) were used as the common measure of association between flavonoid
intake and stroke, and the hazard ratios (HRs) were considered equivalent to RRs. Data analysis
used multivariate-adjusted outcome data. We converted these values in every study by using their
natural logarithms, and the SEs were calculated from these logarithmic numbers and their
corresponding 95% CIs. When the result on total stroke in our meta-analysis was not available, we
used data from ischemic stroke, nonfatal stroke, or fatal stroke as an equivalent to total stroke.22
We combined these estimates using a random-effects model, which takes into account both
within-study and between-study variabilities.23
In the dose-response analysis, the generalized least
square for trend estimation method described by Greenland and Longnecker24
and Orsini et al25
was used to calculate study-specific slopes (linear trends) and 95% confidence intervals. The
method requires the distributions of cases and person years for exposure categories, and
median/mean of flavonoid intake level for each comparison group. We assigned the midpoint of
the upper and lower boundaries of each comparison group to determine mean flavonoid intake
level if the median or mean intake was not provided. If the lower or upper boundary for the lowest
and highest category, respectively, was not reported, we assumed that the boundary had the same
amplitude as the closest category.19
Additionally, we first created restricted cubic splines with 3
knots at fixed percentiles 25%, 50%, and 75% of the distribution.26
A p value for nonlinearity was
calculated by testing the null hypothesis that the coefficient of the fractional polynomials
component is equal to zero. When the result on total flavonoid intake in this dose-response
meta-analysis was not available, we used data from flavonols, flavones, flavanones, flavan-3-ols,
and isoflavones (in the sequential order) as an equivalent to total flavonoid. Heterogeneity among
studies was evaluated using the chi-square test based on Cochran’s Q test and I2 statistic at p<
0.10 level of significance,23
which describes the percentage of variability in the effect estimates
that is due to heterogeneity rather than chance.27
We regard I2 of <40% as “heterogeneity might
not be important” and >75% as “considerable heterogeneity” based on the suggestion of
Cochrane Handbook for Systemic Review of Interventions.28
All available data was conducted in
the primary analysis. Subsequent subgroup analyses were conducted according to stroke outcomes
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(fatal/nonfatal versus ischemic), follow-up duration (≤10 years versus >10 years), sex (male
versus female versus combined), Geographical area (United States versus Asian versus European),
history of stroke (yes versus no), and study quality (high [score>8] versus low [score ≤8]). To
explore possible explanations for heterogeneity and to test the robustness of the association, we
conducted meta-regression, sensitivity analyses and above mentioned stratified analysis. The
possibility of publication bias was evaluated using the Egger rank correlation test at p<0.10 level
of significance and visual inspection of a funnel plot.29,30
In the case of publication bias,
“nonparametric trim-and-fill” method was used to compute risk estimates corrected for this bias.31
All the statistical analyses were performed in STATA 12.0 (StataCorp, College Station, TX). p
values were 2-sided and p<0.05 was considered statistically significant.
Results
Literature Search
Figure 1 shows the results of literature research and selection. We initially identified 181 citations.
After exclusion of duplicate records and studies that did not fulfill our inclusion criteria, 21 studies
remained, and we further evaluated the full texts of these 21 publications. Of these, we excluded
11 studies for the following reasons: no stroke outcomes (n=4), duplicate reports (n=3) and review
(n=4). Finally, 10 studies met the inclusion criteria and were included in the meta-analysis.8-17
Study Characteristics
The characteristics of the studies and of their participants are presented in Table 1 and
Supplemental tables 1 and 2. A total of 10 studies involving 258,158 participants and more than
4,581 stroke cases were included in the meta-analysis.8-17
Among 10 studies, 3 were conducted
primarily in the United States,11,14,16
1 from an Asian country (Singapore),17
and 6 studies were
from European countries (including Finland, Netherlands).8-10,12,13,15
The number of participants
ranged from 755 in the study by Marniemi et al12
to 69,622 in the study by Cassidy et al.16
3
studies included both men and women,10,12,17
3 studies included only men,8,9,15
and 4 studies only
women.11,13,14,16
The follow-up duration ranged from 6.1 to 28 years,8,10
with a median of 14.35
years. The dietary assessment of flavonoid intake varied across studies, in most of the studies,
intake of flavonoids was measured by food frequency questionnaires (FFQs) and dietary history
interview. In most of the studies, stroke was assessed by medical records or death certificates
based on ICD-8,9,10. All studies provided adjusted risk estimates (e.g., sex, body mass index,
smoking, education, et al), overall quality scores ranged for 7 to 9, and the median score was 8.
Flavonoids intake and Stroke Risk
The multivariable adjusted RRs of fatal or nonfatal stroke in relation to dietary flavonoids intake
from individual studies and the combined RR are presented in figure 2. For the 10 studies, only 1
showed that flavonoid intake was associated with decreased risk of stroke.10
Overall, participants
with the highest dietary flavonoid intake, compared with the lowest, experienced a significant
decreased risk for development of stroke (combined RR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.82-0.98; Figure 2) after
adjustment for other risk factors. We saw no heterogeneity among studies (p = 0.733, I2
= 0%).
Among 10 studies, 4 studies were eligible for the dose-response analysis of flavonoid intake and
risk of stroke.9,14,16,17
Using a restricted cubic splines model, dose-response analysis found a
statistically nonsignificant inverse association with risk of stroke per 100-mg/day increment of
flavonoid intake (relative risk 0.94, 95% confidence interval 0.83 to 1.06, I2 = 0%, p = 0.313;
Figure 3 and 4). No publication bias was observed (p = 0.962).
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Stratifying analysis
In most subgroups, dietary flavonoid intake was not associated with stroke. Stratifying by sex, the
associations between dietary flavonoid intake and risk of stroke were similar between males and
females (table 2). The pooled RR of stroke were 0.88 (95% CI: 0.75-1.03) from studies conducted
in the United States, 0.88 (95% CI: 0.77-1.00) in European, and 0.97 (95% CI: 0.81-1.16) in Asian
(table 2). Stratifying by duration, we observed the protective effect of dietary flavonoid intake in
longer than 10 years of follow-up studies. The associations were more evident in several strata of
study characteristics (table 2).
Sensitivity Analysis and Publication Bias
We tested the robustness of our results in sensitivity analysis, when a single study included in the
meta-analysis was deleted at a time, the results of meta-analysis remained largely unchanged,
indicating that the results of the present meta-analysis were stable (data not shown). Visual
inspection of the funnel plot identified asymmetry (Supplemental figure 1). There was no
statistical evidence of publication bias among studies for stroke risk by using Egger test (p =
0.222).
Meta Regression
In this meta-analysis, although no heterogeneity was observed among individual studies, a
multivariate regression was conducted to explore the potential sources of heterogeneity under
stroke. The results of regression suggested that stroke outcomes, follow-up duration, sex,
geographical area, history of stroke, and study quality were no significant source of heterogeneity.
Discussion
Our meta-analysis of 10 prospective studies indicates that dietary flavonoid intake may be
inversely associated with risk of stroke. In addition, dose-response analysis indicated that a
100-mg/day increment of flavonoids intake was associated with a 6% lower risk of stroke (RR
0.94, 95% CI 0.83 to 1.06). However, this association was not statistical significance.
Potential benefits of flavonoids
Flavonoids, constitute a large class of polyphenols, are widely distributed in plants and are present
in considerable amounts in fruits, vegetables, tea and red wine. These bioactive polyphenols are
non-energetic, non-nutrient secondary metabolites present in plants and cannot be synthesizes by
humans.32
In recent decades, overwhelming evidence indicates that intake of flavonoids was
associated with well-known risk-factors for CVD. There was also some evidence that flavonoids
may have a direct role in the development of CVD (e.g., coronary heart disease, stroke, et al).33,34
In addition, although there are many putative biological mechanisms underlying a possible
cardioprotective role for flavonoids,35
including antioxidant,6 reductions in platelet aggregation,
36
anti-inflammatory,37
and the recovery of endothelial function properties of some of the compounds,
the effect of individual compounds or interactions between flavonoids is still largely unknown,
flavonols and isoflavones intake may explain some of this beneficial effect.
Although, the exact mechanism for the beneficial effect by which flavonoid intake may protect
against the development of stroke is still ambiguous, a possible mechanism is the amelioration of
insulin resistance, especially by quercetin, due to inhibition of intestinal glucose transporters.38
Moreover, flavonoids reduced mitochondrial lipid peroxidation and loss of mitochondrial
transmembrane electric potential caused by oxidative stress induced by ADP plus iron, mainly
attributed to antioxidant effects.39
The third mechanism is the protective action of flavonoids on
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the anti-inflammatory properties in the brain, it may be attributable to raft disrupting and
antioxidant effects.40
Because the flavonoids are very diverse in their bioavailability and
bioactivity, the rationale for assuming that intakes of all flavonoid classes might have effects on
stroke needs more consideration.
Results in relation to other studies
Over the past decades, despite extensive studies that investigated the role of flavonoid intake on
either cardiovascular diseases or cerebrovascular diseases, it remains unclear whether the
association between flavonoid intake and risk of stroke is causal. One study suggested flavonoids
are associated with increased risk of stroke,10
the others failed to find the association.8,9
More,
importantly, the possibility of reverse causality should be addressed. Previous meta-analysis of
flavonol intake and risk of stroke showed that flavonol intake was inversely associated with stroke
incidence.34
That meta-analysis included 6 prospective cohorts studies, of which were from 3
different countries, 4 were conducted in Europe (3 in Finland and 1 in The Netherlands) and 2 in
the United States. The inverse associations between flavonol intake and stroke were observed in
two prospective cohort studies (Zutphen Elderly Study and Kuopio Study). Weak and
nonsignificant inverse associations were found in the Finnish Mobile Clinic Study and Women’s
Health Study, this result was consistent with a detailed overview by Vogiatzoglou et al,41
whereas
no associations were noted in the Iowa Women’s Health Study and Alpha-Tocopherol,
Beta-Carotene Cancer Prevention Study. The results for flavonol were consistent with our findings
on flavonoids. But the data from studies included by previous meta-analysis were limited to
August 2009.34
Interestingly, since then new studies involving relationship between flavonoids
intake and risk of stroke were published.16,17
To obtain a more comprehensive estimate of the
putative influence of the flavonoids on stroke, we conducted a meta-analysis of prospective cohort
studies. To our knowledge, this meta-analysis is the largest to reveal the potential relationship
between dietary flavonoid intake and risk of stroke. However, most studies assess dietary
flavonoid intake based on self-reported questionnaires using FFQs, and medical records were not
always available for stroke classification, the possibility that misclassification of flavonoid intake
and stroke was inevitable and likely to bias true association among individual studies.
Strengths and limitations
We has several important strengths compared with the previous meta-analyses.18,34
The present
meta-analysis included 2 times more participants and 2 times more stroke cases. To our knowledge,
this is the largest meta-analysis on flavonoid intake and the risk of stroke. We also explored
possible source of heterogeneity using subgroup analyses and the meta-regression method, all of
them were not significant. Moreover, the presence of a dose-response relationship further
strengthened the association of dietary flavonoid intake with risk of stroke. Therefore, the results
should be more reliable.
In interpreting the results, some limitations of this meta-analysis should be acknowledged. First,
one limitation of any meta-analysis of observational studies is that residual confounding or
confounding by unmeasured factors (such as intake of other nutrients) may have affected the
strength of association between flavonoid intake and stroke risk. Additionally, all studies did not
include complete data on total flavonoid intake in this dose-response analysis, the intake of
flavonoid may have been underestimated in these original studies. Thus, these findings should be
treated with caution. Second, we cannot exclude the possibility of recall bias in the assessments of
diet based on the FFQs. However, the prospective study design and exclusion of participants with
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chronic diseases at baseline should minimize such bias. Third, the noticeable limitation of our
study was the potential for bias due to inevitable measurement error and misclassification,
especially for individual with lower consumption levels. We attempted to reduce measurement
error in adjusting for energy or fiber intake and using of cumulatively averaged intake levels.
Fourth, we tried to study the main sources of flavonoids. But, we failed it because of the
insufficient data. Different sub-classes for flavonoid were used in the primary studies included in
this meta-analysis. Among 10 studies, 4 studies included the same sub-classes (including quercetin,
kaempherol, myricetin, luteolin, and apigenin),8,9,11,12
another 4 studies included the similar
sub-classes (including flavonols, flavones, flavanones, flavan-3-ols, and so on),10,14-16
and 2
studies included the similar compounds (including daidzein, genistein, gormononetin, biochanin A,
and glycitein),13,17
as summarized in supplemental table 2. Thus, we evaluated the effects of total
flavonoid intake on stroke risk rather than the wide-range of flavonoid sub-classes. On the one
hand, in order to balance the risk of a type I error (the true effect is zero but we reject the null) and
a type II error (the true effect is not zero but we fail to reject the null), we combined these
estimates using a random-effects model, which takes into account both within-study and
between-study variabilities.23
Thus, these results should be treated with caution. Finally, the
possible limitation is due to language bias. We attempted to minimize this bias by searching major
electronic databases with no language restriction. However, several articles published in
non-English or unpublished reports might not appear in international journal databases, and could
be omitted by our searches.42
Conclusions
In summary, results from this meta-analysis suggest that higher dietary flavonoid intake may
moderately lower the risk of stroke after adjustment of established cardiovascular risk factors.
Randomized controlled studies are needed to evaluate the effects of flavonoid intake on stroke
risk.
Contributors: ML and ZT conceived and designed the study. ML and WH searched the databases
and checked them according to the eligible criteria and exclusion criteria. ZT helped develop
search strategies. XZ and WH extracted quantitative data. XZ, and WH analyzed the data. ML
wrote the draft of the paper. All authors contributed to writing, reviewing, or revising the paper.
ZT is the guarantor.
Funding: This work was not funded by any foundation or program.
Competing interests: All authors have completed the ICMJE uniform disclosure form at
www.icmje.org/coi_disclosure.pdf (available on request from the corresponding author) and
declare: no support from any organization for the submitted work; no financial relationships with
any organizations that might have an interest in the submitted work in the previous three years; no
other relationships or activities that could appear to have influenced the submitted work.
Ethical approval: Not required.
Data sharing: No additional data available.
Figures Information
Figure 1. Process of literature search and study selection.
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(TIFF)
Figure 2. Random effects analysis of fully adjusted studies for highest versus lowest intake of
flavonoids and risk of stroke.
(TIFF)
Figure 3. Dose-response relationship between dietary flavonoids intake and stroke risk. The
solid line represents point estimates of the association between flavonoid intake and stroke
risk, and the dotted lines are 95% CIs. The horizontal line is the reference line.
(TIFF)
Figure 4. Forest plot of flavonoid and risk of stroke.
(TIFF)
Appendix figure information
Supplemental figure 1. Egger funnel plot for detection of publication bias for stroke risk.
(DOC)
Appendix table information
Supplemental table 1. Confounding factors and methods for adjustment.
(DOC)
Supplemental table 2. Flavonoid subclasses and compounds for each study.
(DOC)
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Table 1. Characteristics of studies included in the meta-analysis
First author,
publication (yr) Country/Population
No. Participants
(% male)
Age range or
mean (yr)
Follow-Up
Duration (yr)
Assessment of
dietary data
Stroke
Ascertainment
No. of stroke
cases
Pre-stroke
Excluded
Study
Quality
Hirvonen et al.8
2000
Finland/European
26497 (100)
50-69
6.1
A self-administered,
modified diet history
method
Any type of stroke
based on ICD-8, 9
codes
Ischemic: 736
Yes
8
Arts et al.9 2001
Netherlands/European
806 (100)
65-84
15
A cross-check
dietary history
method
Any type of stroke
based on ICD-9
codes
Fatal: 47,
Nonfatal: 88
No
7
Knekt et al.10
2002
Finland/European
9131 (NA)
30-69
28
A dietary history
interview
Any type of stroke
based on ICD-8
codes
Fatal or
nonfatal: 681
No
8
Sesso et al.11
2003
United States
38445 (0)
53.9
6.9
A food-frequency
questionnaire
Any type of stroke
based on clinical
diagnosis
Fatal or
nonfatal: NA
Yes
9
Marniemi et al.12
2005
Finland/European
755 (47.8)
65-99
10
A dietary history
interview
Any type of stroke
based on ICD-9
codes
Fatal: 45,
Nonfatal: 25
Yes
8
van der Schouw et
al.13
2005
Netherlands/European
16165 (0)
49-70
6.3
A validated
food-frequency
questionnaire
Any type of stroke
based on ICD-9
codes
Fatal or
nonfatal: 147
Yes
9
Mink et al.14
2007
United States
34489 (0)
55-69
16
A food-frequency
questionnaire
Any type of stroke
based on ICD-9
codes
Fatal: 469
Yes
9
Mursu et al.15
2008
Finland/European
1950 (100)
42-60
15.2
An instructed 4d
food recording by
Any type of stroke
based on ICD-9, 10
Ischemic: 102
Yes
9
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household measures codes
Cassidy et al.16
2012
United States
69622 (0)
30-55
14
A semiquantitative
food-frequency
questionnaires
interview
Any type of stroke
based on medical
records, autopsy
reports, and death
certificates
Ischemic: 943
Yes
8
Talaei et al.17
2014
Singapore/Asian
60298 (44.5)
45-74
14.7
A semiquantitative
food-frequency
questionnaires
interview
Any type of stroke
based on ICD-9
codes
Fatal: 1298
No
8
Abbreviations: ICD: international classification of diseases.
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Table 2. Stratified analyses of flavonoids intake and stroke risk
Group No. of studies RR (95% CI) Heterogeneity test
P value of pooled effect χχχχ2 P value I
2, %
Overall studies
Fatal/nonfatal stroke 10 0.90 (0.82-0.98) 2.35 0.733 0 0.019
Ischemic stroke 3 0.93 (0.80-1.07) 1.03 0.609 0 0.301
Geographical area
United States 3 0.88 (0.75-1.03) 1.59 0.511 0 0.112
Asian 1 0.97 (0.81-1.16) 0.33 - - 0.740
European 6 0.88 (0.77-1.00) 1.95 0.577 0 0.051
History of stroke
Yes 3 0.89 (0.78-1.02) 1.66 0.683 0 0.096
No 7 0.90 (0.80-1.02) 1.62 0.351 4.6 0.105
Sex
Male 3 0.95 (0.79-1.14) 0.55 0.651 0 0.580
Female 4 0.89 (0.77-1.04) 1.45 0.613 0 0.114
Combined 3 0.86 (0.72-1.04) 1.58 0.227 32.6 0.148
Mean follow-up, years
≤10 4 0.90 (0.74-1.09) 1.10 0.340 10.7 0.271
>10 6 0.89 (0.81-0.99) 2.09 0.750 0 0.036
Quality score
High, score>8 4 0.87 (0.70-1.07) 1.34 0.534 0 0.181
Low, score≤8 6 0.91 (0.82-1.00) 1.97 0.589 0 0.048
Abbreviations: CI = confidence interval; RR = relative risk.
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152x101mm (300 x 300 DPI)
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Egger's publication bias plot
sta
nd
ard
ize
d e
ffect
precision0 5 10
-2
-1
0
1
Supplemental figure 1 Egger funnel plot for detection of publication bias for stroke risk
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Supplemental table 1. Confounding factors and methods for adjustment
Reference Adjusted covariates Total stroke Nonfatal stroke Fatal Stroke Ischemic Stroke Hemorrhagic
stroke
Hirvonen et al.8 2000
Age, BMI, SBP, DBP, height, cholesterol, diabetes, history
CHD, smoking, alcohol, supplementation group and education.
equal to
ischemic stroke
results
0.98 (0.80-1.21)
Arts et al.9 2001
Age, BMI, smoking, alcohol, physical activity, coffee, diet,
energy, FA, prescribed diet, intakes of fish, coffee, cholesterol,
fiber, fish, vit C, vit E and β-carotene
0.92
(0.51-1.68)
Knekt et al.10 2002
Age, sex, geographic area, occupation, BMI, BP, cholesterol,
diabetes, region, SE and smoking
0.79
(0.64-0.98)
Sesso et al.11 2003
Age, exercise, aspirin, BMI, BP, postmenopausal hormone use,
cholesterol, diabetes, history of CHD, smoking, alcohol, F﹠V,
fiber, folate and vit E.
0.70
(0.46-1.07)
Marniemi et al.12
2005
Age, sex, smoking, functional capacity and weight adjusted
energy intake.
0.65
(0.34-1.23)
van der Schouw et
al.13 2005
Age, BMI, cholesterol, physical activity, diabetes,
hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, HRT, OC, MS, smoking,
alcohol, energy, F﹠A, fiber, protein, fruit, vegetable and
menopausal status.
1.05
(0.64-1.70)
Mink et al.14 2007
Age, BMI, BP, diabetes, HRT, MS, education, smoking,
activity, estrogen use, WHR and energy
equal to fatal
stroke results
0.94 (0.69-1.29)
Mursu et al.15 2008
Age, examination years, BMI, SBP, HM, cholesterol, TAG,
maximal oxygen uptake, smoking, history of CVD, diabetes,
alcohol, energy-adjusted intake of folate and vit E.
equal to
ischemic stroke
results
0.71 (0.37-1.37)
Cassidy et al.16 2012 Age, physical activity, smoking, HRT, BMI, aspirin use, equal to 0.90 (0.73-1.11)
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diabetes, hypercholesterolemia, history of CHD, alcohol,
menopausal status, energy, use of multivitamins and history of
hypertension
ischemic stroke
results
Talaei et al.17 2014
Age, sex, dialect, year of interview, educational level, BMI,
physical activity, smoking duration, alcohol, diabetes,
hypertension, CHD, stroke, energy and fiber
equal to fatal
stroke results
0.97 (0.81-1.16)
Abbreviations: BMI, body mass index; CVD, cardiovascular disease; CHD, coronary heart disease; BP, blood pressure; SBP: systolic blood pressures; DBP: diastolic blood
pressures; vit C: vitamin C; vit E: vitamin E; FA: fatty acids; F﹠V: fruit and vegetable intake; MS: menopausal status; HRT: hormonal replacement therapy; OC: oral
contraceptives; WHR: waist-to-hip ratio; HM: hypertension medication; MI: myocardial infarction.
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Supplemental table 2. Flavonoid subclasses and compounds for each study.
Reference Adjusted covariates
Hirvonen et al.8 2000 Quercetin, kaempherol, myricetin, luteolin, and apigenin..
Arts et al.9 2001 Quercetin, kaempferol, myricetin, luteolin, and apigenin..
Knekt et al.10 2002
4 flavonols (kaempferol, quercetin, myricetin, and
isorhamnetin), 2 flavones (apigenin and luteolin), and 3
flavanones (hesperetin, naringenin, and eriodictyol).
Sesso et al.11 2003 Quercetin, kaempferol, myricetin, luteolin, and apigenin..
Marniemi et al.12 2005 Quercetin, kaempferol, myricetin, luteolin, and apigenin..
van der Schouw et al.13
2005
Daidzein, Genistein, Formononetin, Biochanin A.
Mink et al.14 2007
4 flavonols (kaempferol, quercetin, myricetin, and
isorhamnetin), 2 flavones (apigenin and luteolin), 3 flavanones
(hesperetin, naringenin, and eriodictyol).
Mursu et al.15 2008
Flavonols, flavones, flavanones, flavan-3-ols and
anthocyanidins.
Cassidy et al.16 2012
4 flavonols (kaempferol, quercetin, myricetin, and
isorhamnetin), 2 flavones (apigenin and luteolin), 6
anthocyanins (cyaniding, delphinindin, malvidin, pelargonidin,
petunidin, peonidin), 2 flavan-3-ols (catechins, epicatechins), 3
polymers (proanthocyanidins, theaflavins, thearubigins), and 3
flavanones (hesperetin, naringenin, and eriodictyol).
Talaei et al.17 2014 Genistein, daidzein, and glycitein.
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MOOSE Checklist
Dietary flavonoid intake and the risk of stroke: A dose-response
meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies
Min Li master student1, Xiaowei Zhang master student
1, Wenshang Hou master
student1, Zhenyu Tang associate professor
1
1Department of Neurology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University,
Nanchang 330006, Jiangxi Province, People’s Republic of China
Correspondence to: Zhenyu Tang, Department of Neurology, The Second Affiliated
Hospital of Nanchang University, No. 1, Minde Road, Nanchang, Jiangxi 330006,
People’s Republic of China
Email: [email protected]
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Criteria Brief description of how the criteria were handled in
the meta-analysis
Reporting of background should
include
√ Problem definition Stroke is the second most common cause of death, as well
as the fourth leading cause of lost productivity and the
second highest cause of disability worldwide. The
prevention of stroke is thus clearly an important public
health priority. In recent decades, concern has mounted
regarding the premature incidence and mortality
associated with stroke, with growing interest in altering
risk factors and reversing this global epidemic. Among
the known risk factors for stroke, dietary factors,
especially dietary flavonoid intake, have aroused
particular attention. Clinical studies have shown that
intakes of flavonoids reduce cardiovascular disease
(CVD) risk. Additionally, experimental studies indicated
that flavonoids have been shown to have both antioxidant
and antithrombotic properties.
√ Hypothesis statement Flavonoid intake decreases risk of stroke.
√ Description of study outcomes Stroke.
√ Type of exposure or
intervention used
Flavonoids
√ Type of study designs used We included (1) original studies (eg, not review articles,
meeting abstracts, editorials, or commentaries); (2)
prospective cohort design (eg, not cross sectional design,
case-control design).
√ Study population We placed no restriction.
Reporting of search strategy
should include
√ Qualifications of searchers The credentials of the two investigators WH and ML are
indicated in the author list.
√ Search strategy, including time
period included in the
synthesis and keywords
PubMed from 1965 –January 2016
Embase from 1974 –January 2016
Cochrane library from 1990- January 2016
Keywords: (“flavonoids,” “polyphenols,” “phenolics,”
“flavonols,” “flavones,” “quercetin,” “kaempferol,”
“myricetin,” “isorhamnetin,” “apigenin,” “luteolin,”
“proanthocyanidins,” “anthocyanins,” “anthocyanidins,”
“flavan-3-ols,” “isoflavones,” and “stroke,”
“cerebrovascular disease,” “cerebrovascular disorders,”
“cerebral infarct,” “ischemic stroke,” “intracranial
hemorrhage,” “intracranial artery disease,”
“cardiovascular disease,” “myocardial ischemia,”
“myocardial infarct,” “ischemic heart disease,” “coronary
heart disease,” and “longitudinal studies,” “cohort
studies,” “prospective studies,” “follow-up studies.”).
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√ Databases and registries
searched
PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane library
√ Search software used, name
and version, including special
features
We did not employ a search software. EndNote was used
to merge retrieved citations and eliminate duplications
√ Use of hand searching We hand-searched bibliographies of retrieved papers for
additional references,
√ List of citations located and
those excluded, including
justifications
Details of the literature search process are outlined in the
process of literature search and study selection. The
citation list is available upon request
√ Method of addressing articles
published in languages other
than English
We placed no restrictions on language; local scientists
fluent in the original language of the article were
contacted for translation
√ Method of handling abstracts
and unpublished studies
We had contacted a few authors for unpublished studies
on the association.
√ Description of any contact with
authors
We contacted authors who had conducted multivariate
analysis with coronary heart disease as a covariate, but
the exposure of interest was not intake of dietary
flavonoids.
Reporting of methods should
include
√ Description of relevance or
appropriateness of studies
assembled for assessing the
hypothesis to be tested
Detailed inclusion and exclusion criteria were described
in the methods section.
√ Rationale for the selection and
coding of data
Data extracted from each of the studies were relevant to
the population characteristics, study design, exposure,
outcome, and possible effect modifiers of the association.
√ Assessment of confounding Restricted the analysis to age- or sex-adjusted estimates
only. Conducted sensitivity analyses by eliminating
studies that had not adjusted for possible confounders.
√ Assessment of study quality,
including blinding of quality
assessors; stratification or
regression on possible
predictors of study results
The Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS) was used to assess
the quality of studies. The quality of cohort studies were
evaluated in the following three major components:
selection of the study group (0-4 stars), quality of the
adjustment for confounding (0-2 stars) and assessment of
outcome in the cohorts (0-3 stars). A higher score
represents better methodological quality. The full score
was 9 stars. Studies were graded as the high-quality if
they met >8 awarded stars.
√ Assessment of heterogeneity Heterogeneity of the studies were explored within two
types of study designs using Cochrane’s Q test of
heterogeneity and I2 statistic that provides the relative
amount of variance of the summary effect due to the
between-study heterogeneity.
√ Description of statistical
methods in sufficient detail to
Description of methods of meta-analyses, sensitivity
analyses, subgroup analyses, meta regression and
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be replicated assessment of publication bias are detailed in the
methods.
√ Provision of appropriate tables
and graphics
We included 1 flow chart, several summary tables and
figures.
Reporting of results should
include
√ Graph summarizing individual
study estimates and overall
estimate
Figure 2, 3 and 4
√ Table giving descriptive
information for each study
included
Table 1 and Supplemental tables 1 and 2
√ Results of sensitivity testing Table 2
√ Indication of statistical
uncertainty of findings
95% confidence intervals were presented with all
summary estimates, I2 values and results of sensitivity
analyses
Reporting of discussion should
include
√ Quantitative assessment of bias Subgroup analyses indicate heterogeneity in strengths of
the association due to most common biases in cohort
studies.
√ Justification for exclusion We excluded studies that had not adjusted for or were
standardized by age or sex, a potential confounder, and
used different exposure or outcome assessment for the
comparison groups.
√ Assessment of quality of
included studies
We discussed the results of the subgroup analyses, and
potential reasons for the observed heterogeneity.
Reporting of conclusions should
include
√ Consideration of alternative
explanations for observed
results
We discussed that potential unmeasured confounders such
as other chronic diseases may have caused residual
confounding, but the measured factors that are correlated
with such confounders would have mitigated the bias.
We noted that the variations in the strengths of
association may be due to true population differences, or
to differences in quality of studies.
√ Generalization of the
conclusions
Our meta-analysis suggests that dietary flavonoid intake
may be inversely associated with risk of stroke. In
addition, dose-response analysis found a statistically
nonsignificant inverse association, with a relative risk of
0.94 (95% confidence intervals, 0.83-1.06) for each 100-
mg/day increment of flavonoid intake.
√ Guidelines for future research We recommend future preferably randomized controlled
studies should explore what kind of flavonoids can reduce
the risk of stroke.
√ Disclosure of funding source No separate funding was necessary for the undertaking of
this systematic review.
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Dietary flavonoid intake and the risk of stroke: A dose-
response
meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies
Journal: BMJ Open
Manuscript ID bmjopen-2015-008680.R3
Article Type: Research
Date Submitted by the Author: 29-Mar-2016
Complete List of Authors: Tang, Zhenyu; The Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang 330006, Jiangxi Province, People’s Republic of China, Department of Neurology
Li, Min; The Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang 330006, Jiangxi Province, People’s Republic of China, Department of Neurology Zhang, Xiaowei; The Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang 330006, Jiangxi Province, People’s Republic of China, Department of Neurology Hou, Wenshang; The Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang 330006, Jiangxi Province, People’s Republic of China, Department of Neurology
<b>Primary Subject Heading</b>:
Evidence based practice
Secondary Subject Heading: Cardiovascular medicine, Evidence based practice, Neurology, Nutrition and
metabolism, Public health
Keywords: Stroke < NEUROLOGY, NUTRITION & DIETETICS, Epidemiology < INFECTIOUS DISEASES
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Dietary flavonoid intake and the risk of stroke: A dose-response
meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies
Zhenyu Tang associate professora,1,*, Min Li master student
a,1, Xiaowei Zhang
master studenta, Wenshang Hou master student
a
a Department of Neurology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang
330006, Jiangxi Province, People’s Republic of China
* Correspondence to: Zhenyu Tang, Department of Neurology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of
Nanchang University, No. 1, Minde Road, Nanchang, Jiangxi 330006, People’s Republic of China
1 Zhenyu Tang and Min Li contributed equally to this work.
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Abstract
Objective To clarify and quantify the potential association between the intake of flavonoids and
risk of stroke.
Design Meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies.
Data source Studies published before January 2016 identified through electronic searches using
PubMed, Embase and the Cochrane Library.
Eligibility criteria for selecting studies Prospective cohort studies with relative risks and 95%
confidence intervals for stroke according to the intake of flavonoids (assessed as dietary intake).
Results The meta-analysis yielded 11 prospective cohort studies involving 356,627 participants
and more than 5,154 stroke cases. The pooled estimate of multivariate relative risk of stroke for
the highest compared with the lowest dietary flavonoid intake was 0.89 (95% confidence interval,
0.82-0.97; p = 0.006). Dose-response analysis indicated that the summary relative risk of stroke
for an increase of 100 mg flavonoids consumed per day was 0.94 (95% confidence interval,
0.83-1.06) without heterogeneity among studies (I2 = 0%). Stratifying by duration, the relative risk
of stroke for flavonoid intake was 0.89 (95% confidence interval, 0.81-0.99) in longer than 10
years of follow-up studies.
Conclusions Results from this meta-analysis suggest that higher dietary flavonoid intake may
moderately lower the risk of stroke.
Article summary
Strengths of this study
1. This is the largest meta-analysis on flavonoid intake and the risk of stroke.
2. Higher dietary flavonoid intake is associated with a significantly reduced risk of stroke.
3. Dose-response analyses indicated a 6% lower risk of stroke per 100 mg/day increment of
flavonoids.
Limitations of this study
4. The possibility of residual confounding or confounding by unmeasured factors, which cannot be
ruled out in any observational study, must be acknowledged.
5. We cannot exclude the possibility of recall bias in the assessments of diet based on the food
frequency questionnaires.
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Introduction
Stroke is the second most common cause of death, as well as the fourth leading cause of lost
productivity and the second highest cause of disability worldwide.1,2
The prevention of stroke is
thus clearly an important public health priority. In recent decades, concern has mounted regarding
the premature incidence and mortality associated with stroke, with growing interest in altering risk
factors and reversing this global epidemic. Among the known risk factors for stroke, dietary
factors, especially dietary flavonoid intake, have aroused particular attention. Clinical studies have
shown that intakes of flavonoids reduce cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk.3-5
Additionally,
experimental studies indicated that flavonoids have been shown to have both antioxidant and
antithrombotic properties.6,7
Over the last 2 decades, many prospective studies have assessed the association of dietary
flavonoid intake and risk of stroke.8-18
Although a recent meta-analysis that combined the results
from 8 cohort studies of flavonol intake and risk of stroke found a significant association of stroke
of 0.86 (95% CI, 0.75 to 0.99) for the highest versus lowest category of flavonol intake,19
the role
of flavonoid intake on stroke prevention is still controversial. In addition, flavonoid intake differed
substantially between studies, which makes it difficult to interpret the summary estimate based on
results from study populations with different flavonoid intakes.20
To fill these gaps, we conducted a dose-response meta-analysis of the current evidence for the
association between flavonoid exposure, including cohort studies of dietary flavonoids, with risk
of stroke.
Methods
Literature search
The search strategy was conducted according to the recommendations of the Meta-analysis of
Observational Studies in Epidemiology (MOOSE).21
We performed a systematic search of
PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane library through February, 2015. The following key words
were used in our search strategies: “flavonoids,” “polyphenols,” “phenolics,” “flavonols,”
“flavones,” “quercetin,” “kaempferol,” “myricetin,” “isorhamnetin,” “apigenin,” “luteolin,”
“proanthocyanidins,” “anthocyanins,” “anthocyanidins,” “flavan-3-ols,” “isoflavones,” and
“stroke,” “cerebrovascular disease,” “cerebrovascular disorders,” “cerebral infarct,” “ischemic
stroke,” “intracranial hemorrhage,” “intracranial artery disease,” “cardiovascular disease,”
“myocardial ischemia,” “myocardial infarct,” “ischemic heart disease,” “coronary heart disease,”
and “longitudinal studies,” “cohort studies,” “prospective studies,” “follow-up studies.” We
restricted the search to human studies. There were no language restrictions. In addition, we
reviewed the reference lists of obtained articles and contacted authors to identify additional
relevant studies and information. When the same or similar patient cohort was included in several
publications, only the most recent or complete report was selected for analysis. This search
strategy was updated on January 14, 2016.
Study Selection
Studies were selected for the meta-analysis if they fulfilled the following entry criteria: (1) the
study of adult patients had a community-based or population-based, prospective cohort design; (2)
the exposure of interest was intake of dietary flavonoids (including: flavonols, flavones,
flavanones, flavan-3-ols, anthocyanidins, proanthocyanidins, and isoflavones); (3) the outcome of
interest was stroke, including all types of stroke (fatal, nonfatal, ischemic, and hemorrhagic); (4)
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reported quantitative estimates of the multivariate-adjusted relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence
interval (CI) for stroke incidence or mortality associated with flavonoids intake; and (5) longer
than 1 year of follow-up. Studies were excluded if (1) the study design was cross-sectional,
case-control; (2) reported unadjusted or only age- or sex-adjusted RR; and (3) shorter than 1 year
of follow-up.
Data Abstraction
All data were independently abstracted in duplicate by 2 investigators (ML, and XZ).
Discrepancies were resolved by consensus. When necessary, the original authors were contacted
for supplementary information. The following data were extracted from each study: first author’s
last name, publication year, country where the study was performed, location, number of
participants, participants’ age, follow-up years, assessment of dietary data and stroke, number of
cases, adjusted covariates and study quality.
Assessment of study quality
The Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS) was used to assess the quality of studies.22
The quality of
cohort studies were evaluated in the following three major components: selection of the study
group (0-4 stars), quality of the adjustment for confounding (0-2 stars) and assessment of outcome
in the cohorts (0-3 stars). A higher score represents better methodological quality. The full score
was 9 stars. Studies were graded as the high-quality if they met >8 awarded stars.
Statistical Analysis
The relative risks (RRs) were used as the common measure of association between flavonoid
intake and stroke, and the hazard ratios (HRs) were considered equivalent to RRs. Data analysis
used multivariate-adjusted outcome data. We converted these values in every study by using their
natural logarithms, and the SEs were calculated from these logarithmic numbers and their
corresponding 95% CIs. When data on total stroke was not available, we used data from ischemic
stroke, nonfatal stroke, or fatal stroke as an equivalent to total stroke.23
We combined these
estimates using a random-effects model, which takes into account both within-study and
between-study variabilities.24
In the dose-response analysis, the generalized least square for trend
estimation method described by Greenland and Longnecker25
and Orsini et al26
was used to
calculate study-specific slopes (linear trends) and 95% confidence intervals. The method requires
the distributions of cases and person years for exposure categories, and median/mean of flavonoid
intake level for each comparison group. We assigned the midpoint of the upper and lower
boundaries of each comparison group to determine mean flavonoid intake level if the median or
mean intake was not provided. If the lower or upper boundary for the lowest and highest category,
respectively, was not reported, we assumed that the boundary had the same amplitude as the
closest category.20
Additionally, we first created restricted cubic splines with 3 knots at fixed
percentiles 25%, 50%, and 75% of the distribution.27
A p value for nonlinearity was calculated by
testing the null hypothesis that the coefficient of the fractional polynomials component is equal to
zero. When the result on total flavonoid intake in this dose-response meta-analysis was not
available, we used data from flavonols, flavones, flavanones, flavan-3-ols, and isoflavones (in the
sequential order) as an equivalent to total flavonoid. Heterogeneity among studies was evaluated
using the chi-square test based on Cochran’s Q test and I2 statistic at p<0.10 level of
significance,24
which describes the percentage of variability in the effect estimates that is due to
heterogeneity rather than chance.28
We regard I2 of <40% as “heterogeneity might not be
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important” and >75% as “considerable heterogeneity” based on the suggestion of Cochrane
Handbook for Systemic Review of Interventions.29
All available data was utilized in the primary
analysis. Subsequent subgroup analyses were conducted according to stroke outcomes
(fatal/nonfatal versus ischemic), follow-up duration (≤10 years versus >10 years), sex (male
versus female versus combined), Geographical area (United States versus Asian versus European),
history of stroke (yes versus no), and study quality (high [score>8] versus low [score ≤8]). To
explore possible explanations for heterogeneity and to test the robustness of the association, we
conducted meta-regression, sensitivity analyses and above mentioned stratified analysis. The
possibility of publication bias was evaluated using the Egger rank correlation test at p<0.10 level
of significance and visual inspection of a funnel plot.30,31
In the case of publication bias,
“nonparametric trim-and-fill” method was used to compute risk estimates corrected for this bias.32
All the statistical analyses were performed in STATA 12.0 (StataCorp, College Station, TX). p
values were 2-sided and p<0.05 was considered statistically significant.
Results
Literature Search
Figure 1 shows the results of literature research and selection. We initially identified 236 citations.
After exclusion of duplicate records and studies that did not fulfill our inclusion criteria, 28 studies
remained, and we further evaluated the full texts of these 28 publications. Of these, we excluded
17 studies for the following reasons: no stroke outcomes (n=8), duplicate reports (n=4) and
reviews (n=5). Finally, 11 studies met the inclusion criteria and were included in the
meta-analysis.8-18
Study Characteristics
The characteristics of the studies and of their participants are presented in Table 1 and
Supplemental tables 1 and 2. A total of 11 studies involving 356,627 participants and more than
5,154 stroke cases were included in the meta-analysis.8-18
Among 11 studies, 4 were conducted in
the United States,11,14,16,17
1 from an Asian country (Singapore),18
and 6 studies were from
European countries (including Finland, Netherlands).8-10,12,13,15
The number of participants ranged
from 755 in the study by Marniemi et al12
to 98,469 in the study by McCullough et al.17
4 studies
included both men and women,10,12,17,18
3 studies included only men,8,9,15
and 4 studies only
women.11,13,14,16
The follow-up duration ranged from 6.1 to 28 years,8,10
with a median of 14 years.
The dietary assessment of flavonoid intake varied across studies, in most of the studies, intake of
flavonoids was measured by food frequency questionnaires (FFQs) and dietary history interview.
In most of the studies, stroke was assessed by medical records or death certificates based on
ICD-8,9,10. All studies provided adjusted risk estimates (e.g., sex, body mass index, smoking,
education, et al), overall quality scores ranged for 7 to 9, and the median score was 8.
Flavonoids intake and Stroke Risk
The multivariable adjusted RRs of fatal or nonfatal stroke in relation to dietary flavonoids intake
from individual studies and the combined RR are presented in figure 2. For the 11 studies, only 1
showed that flavonoid intake was significantly associated with decreased risk of stroke.10
Overall,
participants with the highest dietary flavonoid intake, compared with the lowest, experienced a
significant decreased risk for development of stroke (combined RR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.82-0.97;
Figure 2) after adjustment for other risk factors. We saw no heterogeneity among studies (p =
0.774, I2
= 0%). Among 11 studies, 4 studies were eligible for the dose-response analysis of
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flavonoid intake and risk of stroke.9,14,16,18
Using a restricted cubic splines model, dose-response
analysis found a statistically nonsignificant inverse association with risk of stroke per 100-mg/day
increment of flavonoid intake (relative risk 0.94, 95% confidence interval 0.83 to 1.06, I2 = 0%, p
= 0.313; Figure 3 and 4). No heterogeneity was observed (p = 0.962).
Stratifying analysis
In most subgroups, dietary flavonoid intake was not associated with stroke. Stratifying by sex, the
associations between dietary flavonoid intake and risk of stroke were similar between males and
females (table 2). The pooled RR of stroke were 0.86 (95% CI: 0.76-0.98) from studies conducted
in the United States, 0.88 (95% CI: 0.77-1.00) in European, and 0.97 (95% CI: 0.81-1.16) in Asian
(table 2). Stratifying by duration, we observed the protective effect of dietary flavonoid intake in
longer than 10 years of follow-up studies. The associations were more evident in several strata of
study characteristics (table 2).
Sensitivity Analysis and Publication Bias
We tested the robustness of our results in sensitivity analysis, when a single study included in the
meta-analysis was deleted at a time, the results of meta-analysis remained largely unchanged,
indicating that the results of the present meta-analysis were stable (data not shown). Visual
inspection of the funnel plot identified asymmetry (Supplemental figure 1). There was no
statistical evidence of publication bias among studies for stroke risk by using Egger test (p =
0.238).
Meta Regression
In this meta-analysis, although no heterogeneity was observed among individual studies, a
multivariate regression was conducted to explore the potential sources of heterogeneity under
stroke. The results of regression suggested that stroke outcomes, follow-up duration, sex,
geographical area, history of stroke, and study quality were no significant sources of
heterogeneity.
Discussion
Our meta-analysis of 11 prospective studies indicates that dietary flavonoid intake may be
inversely associated with risk of stroke. In addition, dose-response analysis indicated that a
100-mg/day increment of flavonoids intake was associated with a 6% lower risk of stroke (RR
0.94, 95% CI 0.83 to 1.06). However, this association was not statistically significant.
Potential benefits of flavonoids
Flavonoids, constitute a large class of polyphenols, are widely distributed in plants and are present
in considerable amounts in fruits, vegetables, tea and red wine. These bioactive polyphenols are
non-energetic, non-nutrient secondary metabolites present in plants and cannot be synthesized by
humans.33
In recent decades, overwhelming evidence indicates that intake of flavonoid was
associated with well-known risk-factors for CVD. There is also some evidence that flavonoids
may have a role in preventing the development of CVD (e.g., coronary heart disease, stroke, et
al).34,35
In addition, although there are many putative biological mechanisms underlying a possible
cardioprotective role for flavonoids,36
including anti-inflammatory,37
antioxidant,6 recovery of
endothelial function properties of some of the compounds, and reductions in platelet
aggregation,38
and the effect of individual compounds or interactions between flavonoids is still
largely unknown, flavonol and isoflavone intake may explain some of this beneficial effect.19,39
Although, the exact mechanism for the beneficial effect by which flavonoid intake may protect
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against the development of stroke is still ambiguous, a possible mechanism is the regulation of
blood pressure, especially by anthocyanins, due to increase endothelial-derived nitric oxide
(NO).40
Moreover, flavonoids reduced mitochondrial lipid peroxidation and loss of mitochondrial
transmembrane electric potential caused by oxidative stress induced by ADP plus iron, mainly
attributed to antioxidant effects.41
A third mechanism is the protective action of flavonoids on the
anti-inflammatory responses in the brain, that may be attributable to raft disrupting and
antioxidant effects.42
Because the flavonoids are very diverse in their bioavailability and
bioactivity, the rationale for assuming that intakes of all flavonoid classes might have effects on
stroke needs more consideration.
Results in relation to other studies
Over the past decades, despite extensive studies that investigated the role of flavonoid intake on
either cardiovascular diseases or cerebrovascular diseases, it remains unclear whether the
association between flavonoid intake and risk of stroke is causal. One study suggested flavonoids
are associated with increased risk of stroke,10
the others failed to find the association.8,9
More,
importantly, the possibility of reverse causality should be addressed. A previous meta-analysis of
flavonol intake and risk of stroke showed that flavonol intake was inversely associated with stroke
incidence.35
That meta-analysis included 6 prospective cohorts studies from 3 different countries,
4 were conducted in Europe (3 in Finland and 1 in The Netherlands) and 2 in the United States.
The inverse associations between flavonol intake and stroke were observed in two prospective
cohort studies (Zutphen Elderly Study and Kuopio Study). Weak and nonsignificant inverse
associations were found in the Finnish Mobile Clinic Study and Women’s Health Study, this result
was consistent with a detailed overview by Vogiatzoglou et al,43
whereas no associations were
noted in the Iowa Women’s Health Study and Alpha-Tocopherol, Beta-Carotene Cancer
Prevention Study. The results for flavonol were consistent with our findings on flavonoids. But the
data from studies included by previous meta-analysis were limited to August 2009.35
Interestingly,
since then 3 new studies involving relationship between flavonoids intake and risk of stroke were
published.16-18
To obtain a more comprehensive estimate of the putative influence of the
flavonoids on stroke, we conducted a meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies. To our
knowledge, this meta-analysis is the largest to reveal a potential relationship between dietary
flavonoid intake and risk of stroke. However, most studies assess dietary flavonoid intake based
on self-reported questionnaires using FFQs, and medical records were not always available for
stroke classification; the possibility that misclassification of flavonoid intake and stroke was
inevitable and likely to bias true association among individual studies.
Strengths and limitations
We have several important strengths compared with previous meta-analyses.19,35
The present
meta-analysis included 2 times more participants and 2 times more stroke cases. To our knowledge,
this is the largest meta-analysis on flavonoid intake and the risk of stroke. We also explored
possible sources of heterogeneity using subgroup analyses and the meta-regression method, all of
them were not significant. Moreover, the presence of a dose-response relationship further
strengthened the association of dietary flavonoid intake with risk of stroke. Therefore, the results
should be more reliable.
In interpreting the results, some limitations of this meta-analysis should be acknowledged. First,
one limitation of any meta-analysis of observational studies is that residual confounding or
confounding by unmeasured factors (such as intake of other nutrients) may have affected the
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strength of association between flavonoid intake and stroke risk. Additionally, all the studies used
in this dose-response analysis did not include complete data on total flavonoid intake; the
flavonoid intake may have been underestimated in these original studies. Thus, these findings
should be treated with caution. Second, we cannot exclude the possibility of recall bias in the
dietary assessment based on the FFQs. However, the prospective study design and exclusion of
participants with chronic diseases at baseline should minimize such bias. Third, a noticeable
limitation of our study was the potential for bias due to inevitable measurement error and
misclassification, especially for individuals with lower consumption levels. We attempted to
reduce measurement error by adjusting for energy or fiber intake and using cumulatively averaged
intake levels. Fourth, we tried to study the main sources of flavonoids. But, we failed because of
insufficient data. Different sub-classes for flavonoid were used in the primary studies included in
this meta-analysis. Among 11 studies, 4 studies included the same sub-classes (including quercetin,
kaempherol, myricetin, luteolin, and apigenin),8,9,11,12
another 5 studies included the similar
sub-classes (including flavonols, flavones, flavanones, flavan-3-ols, and so on),10,14-17
and 2
studies included the similar compounds (including daidzein, genistein, gormononetin, biochanin A,
and glycitein),13,18
as summarized in supplemental table 2. Among 11 studies, only 4 studies
were eligible for the dose-response analysis, and the compounds of flavonoid
subclasses are different among these studies. Of these, 2 studies included flavanones, 2
studies included flavones, 2 studies included flavonols, 2 studies included flavan-3-ols, and 2
studies included isoflavones. Due to the limited number of studies that met dose-response analyses
and the insufficient statistical power, we did not conduct dose-response analysis separately on
each class. Thus, we evaluated the effects of total flavonoid intake on stroke risk rather than the
wide-range of flavonoid sub-classes. On the one hand, in order to balance the risk of a type I error
(the true effect is zero but we reject the null) and a type II error (the true effect is not zero but we
fail to reject the null), we combined these estimates using a random-effects model, which takes
into account both within-study and between-study variabilities.24
Thus, these results should be
treated with caution. Finally, a possible limitation is due to language bias. We attempted to
minimize this bias by searching major electronic databases with no language restriction. However,
several articles published in non-English or unpublished reports might not appear in international
journal databases, and could be omitted by our searches.44
Conclusions
In summary, results from this meta-analysis suggest that higher dietary flavonoid intake may
moderately lower the risk of stroke after adjustment of established cardiovascular risk factors.
Randomized controlled studies are needed to evaluate the effects of flavonoid intake on stroke
risk.
Contributors: ML and ZT conceived and designed the study. ML and WH searched the databases
and checked them according to the eligible criteria and exclusion criteria. ZT helped develop
search strategies. XZ and WH extracted quantitative data. XZ, and WH analyzed the data. ML
wrote the draft of the paper. All authors contributed to writing, reviewing, or revising the paper.
ZT is the guarantor.
Funding: This work was not funded by any foundation or program.
Competing interests: All authors have completed the ICMJE uniform disclosure form at
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www.icmje.org/coi_disclosure.pdf (available on request from the corresponding author) and
declare: no support from any organization for the submitted work; no financial relationships with
any organizations that might have an interest in the submitted work in the previous three years; no
other relationships or activities that could appear to have influenced the submitted work.
Ethical approval: Not required.
Data sharing: No additional data available.
Figures Information
Figure 1. Process of literature search and study selection.
(TIFF)
Figure 2. Random effects analysis of fully adjusted studies for highest versus lowest intake of
flavonoids and risk of stroke.
(TIFF)
Figure 3. Dose-response relationship between dietary flavonoids intake and stroke risk. The
solid line represents point estimates of the association between flavonoid intake and stroke
risk, and the dotted lines are 95% CIs. The horizontal line is the reference line.
(TIFF)
Figure 4. Forest plot of flavonoid and risk of stroke. 4 cohort studies were eligible for the
dose-response analysis of flavonoid intake and risk of stroke. Relative risk of less than 1.0
favours exposure to greater intake of flavonoid. CI, Confidence interval.
(TIFF)
Appendix figure information
Supplemental figure 1. Egger funnel plot for detection of publication bias for stroke risk.
(DOC)
Appendix table information
Supplemental table 1. Confounding factors and methods for adjustment.
(DOC)
Supplemental table 2. Flavonoid subclasses and compounds for each study.
(DOC)
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Table 1. Characteristics of studies included in the meta-analysis
First author,
publication (yr) Country/Population
No. Participants
(% male)
Age range or
mean (yr)
Follow-Up
Duration (yr)
Assessment of
dietary data
Stroke
Ascertainment
No. of stroke
cases
Pre-stroke
Excluded
Study
Quality
Hirvonen et al.8
2000
Finland/European
26497 (100)
50-69
6.1
A self-administered,
modified diet history
method
Any type of stroke
based on ICD-8, 9
codes
Ischemic: 736
Yes
8
Arts et al.9 2001
Netherlands/European
806 (100)
65-84
15
A cross-check
dietary history
method
Any type of stroke
based on ICD-9
codes
Fatal: 47,
Nonfatal: 88
No
7
Knekt et al.10
2002
Finland/European
9131 (NA)
30-69
28
A dietary history
interview
Any type of stroke
based on ICD-8
codes
Fatal or
nonfatal: 681
No
8
Sesso et al.11
2003
United States
38445 (0)
53.9
6.9
A food-frequency
questionnaire
Any type of stroke
based on clinical
diagnosis
Fatal or
nonfatal: NA
Yes
9
Marniemi et al.12
2005
Finland/European
755 (47.8)
65-99
10
A dietary history
interview
Any type of stroke
based on ICD-9
codes
Fatal: 45,
Nonfatal: 25
Yes
8
van der Schouw et
al.13
2005
Netherlands/European
16165 (0)
49-70
6.3
A validated
food-frequency
questionnaire
Any type of stroke
based on ICD-9
codes
Fatal or
nonfatal: 147
Yes
9
Mink et al.14
2007
United States
34489 (0)
55-69
16
A food-frequency
questionnaire
Any type of stroke
based on ICD-9
codes
Fatal: 469
Yes
9
Mursu et al.15
2008
Finland/European
1950 (100)
42-60
15.2
An instructed 4d
food recording by
Any type of stroke
based on ICD-9, 10
Ischemic: 102
Yes
9
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household measures codes
Cassidy et al.16
2012
United States
69622 (0)
30-55
14
A semiquantitative
food-frequency
questionnaires
interview
Any type of stroke
based on medical
records, autopsy
reports, and death
certificates
Ischemic: 943
Yes
8
McCullough et
al.17
2012
United States
98469 (38.8)
70
7
A semiquantitative
food-frequency
questionnaires
interview
Any type of stroke
based on ICD-9, 10
codes
Fatal: 573
Yes
9
Talaei et al.18
2014
Singapore/Asian
60298 (44.5)
45-74
14.7
A semiquantitative
food-frequency
questionnaires
interview
Any type of stroke
based on ICD-9
codes
Fatal: 1298
No
8
Abbreviations: ICD: international classification of diseases.
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Table 2. Stratified analyses of flavonoids intake and stroke risk
Group No. of studies RR (95% CI) Heterogeneity test
P value of pooled effect χχχχ2 P value I
2, %
Overall studies
Fatal/nonfatal stroke 11 0.89 (0.82-0.97) 6.48 0.774 0 0.006
Ischemic stroke 3 0.93 (0.80-1.07) 1.03 0.609 0 0.301
Geographical area
United States 4 0.86 (0.76-0.98) 1.50 0.683 0 0.026
Asian 1 0.97 (0.81-1.16) 0 - - 0.740
European 6 0.88 (0.77-1.00) 3.81 0.577 0 0.051
History of stroke
Yes 3 0.89 (0.78-1.02) 2.10 0.351 4.6 0.105
No 8 0.89 (0.80-0.99) 4.38 0.735 0 0.027
Sex
Male 4 0.82 (0.64-1.06) 4.90 0.179 38.8 0.130
Female 5 0.92 (0.80-1.05) 2.39 0.664 0 0.216
Combined 3 0.86 (0.72-1.04) 2.97 0.227 32.6 0.114
Mean follow-up, years
≤10 5 0.88 (0.77-1.01) 3.78 0.437 0 0.067
>10 6 0.89 (0.81-0.99) 2.68 0.750 0 0.036
Quality score
High, score>8 5 0.85 (0.73-0.99) 2.26 0.688 0 0.038
Low, score≤8 6 0.91 (0.82-1.00) 3.73 0.589 0 0.048
Abbreviations: CI = confidence interval; RR = relative risk.
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Process of literature search and study selection.
152x101mm (300 x 300 DPI)
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Random effects analysis of fully adjusted studies for highest versus lowest intake of flavonoids and risk of stroke.
152x101mm (300 x 300 DPI)
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Dose-response relationship between dietary flavonoids intake and stroke risk. The solid line represents point
estimates of the association between flavonoid intake and stroke risk, and the dotted lines are 95% CIs. The
horizontal line is the reference line.
152x101mm (300 x 300 DPI)
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Forest plot of flavonoid and risk of stroke. 4 cohort studies were eligible for the dose-response analysis of flavonoid intake and risk of stroke. Relative risk of less than 1.0 favours exposure to greater intake of
flavonoid. CI, Confidence interval. 152x101mm (300 x 300 DPI)
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152x101mm (300 x 300 DPI)
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Supplemental table 1. Confounding factors and methods for adjustment
Reference Adjusted covariates Total stroke Nonfatal stroke Fatal Stroke Ischemic Stroke Hemorrhagic
stroke
Hirvonen et al.8 2000
Age, BMI, SBP, DBP, height, cholesterol, diabetes, history
CHD, smoking, alcohol, supplementation group and education.
equal to
ischemic stroke
results
0.98 (0.80-1.21)
Arts et al.9 2001
Age, BMI, smoking, alcohol, physical activity, coffee, diet,
energy, FA, prescribed diet, intakes of fish, coffee, cholesterol,
fiber, fish, vit C, vit E and β-carotene
0.92
(0.51-1.68)
Knekt et al.10 2002
Age, sex, geographic area, occupation, BMI, BP, cholesterol,
diabetes, region, SE and smoking
0.79
(0.64-0.98)
Sesso et al.11 2003
Age, exercise, aspirin, BMI, BP, postmenopausal hormone use,
cholesterol, diabetes, history of CHD, smoking, alcohol, F﹠V,
fiber, folate and vit E.
0.70
(0.46-1.07)
Marniemi et al.12
2005
Age, sex, smoking, functional capacity and weight adjusted
energy intake.
0.65
(0.34-1.23)
van der Schouw et
al.13 2005
Age, BMI, cholesterol, physical activity, diabetes,
hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, HRT, OC, MS, smoking,
alcohol, energy, F﹠A, fiber, protein, fruit, vegetable and
menopausal status.
1.05
(0.64-1.70)
Mink et al.14 2007
Age, BMI, BP, diabetes, HRT, MS, education, smoking,
activity, estrogen use, WHR and energy
equal to fatal
stroke results
0.94 (0.69-1.29)
Mursu et al.15 2008
Age, examination years, BMI, SBP, HM, cholesterol, TAG,
maximal oxygen uptake, smoking, history of CVD, diabetes,
alcohol, energy-adjusted intake of folate and vit E.
equal to
ischemic stroke
results
0.71 (0.37-1.37)
Cassidy et al.16 2012 Age, physical activity, smoking, HRT, BMI, aspirin use, equal to 0.90 (0.73-1.11)
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diabetes, hypercholesterolemia, history of CHD, alcohol,
menopausal status, energy, use of multivitamins and history of
hypertension
ischemic stroke
results
McCullough et al.17
2012
Age, smoking, beer and liquor intake, history of hypertension,
history of cholesterol, family history of MI, BMI, physical
activity, energy intake, aspirin use, HRT, and sex
equal to fatal
stroke results
0.83 (0.66-1.04)
Talaei et al.18 2014
Age, sex, dialect, year of interview, educational level, BMI,
physical activity, smoking duration, alcohol, diabetes,
hypertension, CHD, stroke, energy and fiber
equal to fatal
stroke results
0.97 (0.81-1.16)
Abbreviations: BMI, body mass index; CVD, cardiovascular disease; CHD, coronary heart disease; BP, blood pressure; SBP: systolic blood pressures; DBP: diastolic blood
pressures; vit C: vitamin C; vit E: vitamin E; FA: fatty acids; F﹠V: fruit and vegetable intake; MS: menopausal status; HRT: hormonal replacement therapy; OC: oral
contraceptives; WHR: waist-to-hip ratio; HM: hypertension medication; MI: myocardial infarction.
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Supplemental table 2. Flavonoid subclasses and compounds for each study.
Reference Flavonoid subclasses
Hirvonen et al.8 2000 Quercetin, kaempherol, myricetin, luteolin, and apigenin..
Arts et al.9 2001 Quercetin, kaempferol, myricetin, luteolin, and apigenin..
Knekt et al.10 2002
4 flavonols (kaempferol, quercetin, myricetin, and
isorhamnetin), 2 flavones (apigenin and luteolin), and 3
flavanones (hesperetin, naringenin, and eriodictyol).
Sesso et al.11 2003 Quercetin, kaempferol, myricetin, luteolin, and apigenin..
Marniemi et al.12 2005 Quercetin, kaempferol, myricetin, luteolin, and apigenin..
van der Schouw et al.13
2005
Daidzein, Genistein, Formononetin, Biochanin A.
Mink et al.14 2007
4 flavonols (kaempferol, quercetin, myricetin, and
isorhamnetin), 2 flavones (apigenin and luteolin), 3 flavanones
(hesperetin, naringenin, and eriodictyol), flavan-3-ols (apples,
red wine, green tea, black tea) and anthocyanidin (bluederries,
raspberries, red wine).
Mursu et al.15 2008
Flavonols, flavones, flavanones, flavan-3-ols and
anthocyanidins.
Cassidy et al.16 2012
4 flavonols (kaempferol, quercetin, myricetin, and
isorhamnetin), 2 flavones (apigenin and luteolin), 6
anthocyanins (cyaniding, delphinindin, malvidin, pelargonidin,
petunidin, peonidin), flavan-3-ols (catechins, epicatechins), 3
polymer classes (proanthocyanidins, theaflavins, thearubigins),
and 3 flavanones (hesperetin, naringenin, and eriodictyol).
McCullough et al.17 2012
Anthocyanidin, flavan-3-ols, flavanones, flavones, flavonols,
proanthocyanidins, isoflavones.
Talaei et al.18 2014 Genistein, daidzein, and glycitein.
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MOOSE Checklist
Dietary flavonoid intake and the risk of stroke: A dose-response
meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies
Min Li master student1, Xiaowei Zhang master student
1, Wenshang Hou master
student1, Zhenyu Tang associate professor
1
1Department of Neurology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University,
Nanchang 330006, Jiangxi Province, People’s Republic of China
Correspondence to: Zhenyu Tang, Department of Neurology, The Second Affiliated
Hospital of Nanchang University, No. 1, Minde Road, Nanchang, Jiangxi 330006,
People’s Republic of China
Email: [email protected]
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Criteria Brief description of how the criteria were handled in
the meta-analysis
Reporting of background should
include
√ Problem definition Stroke is the second most common cause of death, as well
as the fourth leading cause of lost productivity and the
second highest cause of disability worldwide. The
prevention of stroke is thus clearly an important public
health priority. In recent decades, concern has mounted
regarding the premature incidence and mortality
associated with stroke, with growing interest in altering
risk factors and reversing this global epidemic. Among
the known risk factors for stroke, dietary factors,
especially dietary flavonoid intake, have aroused
particular attention. Clinical studies have shown that
intakes of flavonoids reduce cardiovascular disease
(CVD) risk. Additionally, experimental studies indicated
that flavonoids have been shown to have both antioxidant
and antithrombotic properties.
√ Hypothesis statement Flavonoid intake decreases risk of stroke.
√ Description of study outcomes Stroke.
√ Type of exposure or
intervention used
Flavonoids
√ Type of study designs used We included (1) original studies (eg, not review articles,
meeting abstracts, editorials, or commentaries); (2)
prospective cohort design (eg, not cross sectional design,
case-control design).
√ Study population We placed no restriction.
Reporting of search strategy
should include
√ Qualifications of searchers The credentials of the two investigators WH and ML are
indicated in the author list.
√ Search strategy, including time
period included in the
synthesis and keywords
PubMed from 1965 –January 2016
Embase from 1974 –January 2016
Cochrane library from 1990- January 2016
Keywords: (“flavonoids,” “polyphenols,” “phenolics,”
“flavonols,” “flavones,” “quercetin,” “kaempferol,”
“myricetin,” “isorhamnetin,” “apigenin,” “luteolin,”
“proanthocyanidins,” “anthocyanins,” “anthocyanidins,”
“flavan-3-ols,” “isoflavones,” and “stroke,”
“cerebrovascular disease,” “cerebrovascular disorders,”
“cerebral infarct,” “ischemic stroke,” “intracranial
hemorrhage,” “intracranial artery disease,”
“cardiovascular disease,” “myocardial ischemia,”
“myocardial infarct,” “ischemic heart disease,” “coronary
heart disease,” and “longitudinal studies,” “cohort
studies,” “prospective studies,” “follow-up studies.”).
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√ Databases and registries
searched
PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane library
√ Search software used, name
and version, including special
features
We did not employ a search software. EndNote was used
to merge retrieved citations and eliminate duplications
√ Use of hand searching We hand-searched bibliographies of retrieved papers for
additional references,
√ List of citations located and
those excluded, including
justifications
Details of the literature search process are outlined in the
process of literature search and study selection. The
citation list is available upon request
√ Method of addressing articles
published in languages other
than English
We placed no restrictions on language; local scientists
fluent in the original language of the article were
contacted for translation
√ Method of handling abstracts
and unpublished studies
We had contacted a few authors for unpublished studies
on the association.
√ Description of any contact with
authors
We contacted authors who had conducted multivariate
analysis with coronary heart disease as a covariate, but
the exposure of interest was not intake of dietary
flavonoids.
Reporting of methods should
include
√ Description of relevance or
appropriateness of studies
assembled for assessing the
hypothesis to be tested
Detailed inclusion and exclusion criteria were described
in the methods section.
√ Rationale for the selection and
coding of data
Data extracted from each of the studies were relevant to
the population characteristics, study design, exposure,
outcome, and possible effect modifiers of the association.
√ Assessment of confounding Restricted the analysis to age- or sex-adjusted estimates
only. Conducted sensitivity analyses by eliminating
studies that had not adjusted for possible confounders.
√ Assessment of study quality,
including blinding of quality
assessors; stratification or
regression on possible
predictors of study results
The Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS) was used to assess
the quality of studies. The quality of cohort studies were
evaluated in the following three major components:
selection of the study group (0-4 stars), quality of the
adjustment for confounding (0-2 stars) and assessment of
outcome in the cohorts (0-3 stars). A higher score
represents better methodological quality. The full score
was 9 stars. Studies were graded as the high-quality if
they met >8 awarded stars.
√ Assessment of heterogeneity Heterogeneity of the studies were explored within two
types of study designs using Cochrane’s Q test of
heterogeneity and I2 statistic that provides the relative
amount of variance of the summary effect due to the
between-study heterogeneity.
√ Description of statistical
methods in sufficient detail to
Description of methods of meta-analyses, sensitivity
analyses, subgroup analyses, meta regression and
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be replicated assessment of publication bias are detailed in the
methods.
√ Provision of appropriate tables
and graphics
We included 1 flow chart, several summary tables and
figures.
Reporting of results should
include
√ Graph summarizing individual
study estimates and overall
estimate
Figure 2, 3 and 4
√ Table giving descriptive
information for each study
included
Table 1 and Supplemental tables 1 and 2
√ Results of sensitivity testing Table 2
√ Indication of statistical
uncertainty of findings
95% confidence intervals were presented with all
summary estimates, I2 values and results of sensitivity
analyses
Reporting of discussion should
include
√ Quantitative assessment of bias Subgroup analyses indicate heterogeneity in strengths of
the association due to most common biases in cohort
studies.
√ Justification for exclusion We excluded studies that had not adjusted for or were
standardized by age or sex, a potential confounder, and
used different exposure or outcome assessment for the
comparison groups.
√ Assessment of quality of
included studies
We discussed the results of the subgroup analyses, and
potential reasons for the observed heterogeneity.
Reporting of conclusions should
include
√ Consideration of alternative
explanations for observed
results
We discussed that potential unmeasured confounders such
as other chronic diseases may have caused residual
confounding, but the measured factors that are correlated
with such confounders would have mitigated the bias.
We noted that the variations in the strengths of
association may be due to true population differences, or
to differences in quality of studies.
√ Generalization of the
conclusions
Our meta-analysis suggests that dietary flavonoid intake
may be inversely associated with risk of stroke. In
addition, dose-response analysis found a statistically
nonsignificant inverse association, with a relative risk of
0.91 (95% confidence intervals, 0.77-1.08) for each 100-
mg/day increment of flavonoid intake.
√ Guidelines for future research We recommend future preferably randomized controlled
studies should explore what kind of flavonoids can reduce
the risk of stroke.
√ Disclosure of funding source No separate funding was necessary for the undertaking of
this systematic review.
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Dietary flavonoid intake and the risk of stroke: A dose-
response
meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies
Journal: BMJ Open
Manuscript ID bmjopen-2015-008680.R4
Article Type: Research
Date Submitted by the Author: 23-Apr-2016
Complete List of Authors: Tang, Zhenyu; The Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang 330006, Jiangxi Province, People’s Republic of China, Department of Neurology
Li, Min; The Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang 330006, Jiangxi Province, People’s Republic of China, Department of Neurology Zhang, Xiaowei; The Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang 330006, Jiangxi Province, People’s Republic of China, Department of Neurology Hou, Wenshang; The Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang 330006, Jiangxi Province, People’s Republic of China, Department of Neurology
<b>Primary Subject Heading</b>:
Evidence based practice
Secondary Subject Heading: Cardiovascular medicine, Evidence based practice, Neurology, Nutrition and
metabolism, Public health
Keywords: STROKE MEDICINE, NEUROLOGY, PUBLIC HEALTH
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Dietary flavonoid intake and the risk of stroke: A dose-response
meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies
Zhenyu Tang associate professora,1,*, Min Li master student
a,1, Xiaowei Zhang
master studenta, Wenshang Hou master student
a
a Department of Neurology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang
330006, Jiangxi Province, People’s Republic of China
* Correspondence to: Zhenyu Tang, Department of Neurology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of
Nanchang University, No. 1, Minde Road, Nanchang, Jiangxi 330006, People’s Republic of China
1 Zhenyu Tang and Min Li contributed equally to this work.
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Abstract
Objective To clarify and quantify the potential association between the intake of flavonoids and
risk of stroke.
Design Meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies.
Data source Studies published before January 2016 identified through electronic searches using
PubMed, Embase and the Cochrane Library.
Eligibility criteria for selecting studies Prospective cohort studies with relative risks and 95%
confidence intervals for stroke according to the intake of flavonoids (assessed as dietary intake).
Results The meta-analysis yielded 11 prospective cohort studies involving 356,627 participants
and more than 5,154 stroke cases. The pooled estimate of multivariate relative risk of stroke for
the highest compared with the lowest dietary flavonoid intake was 0.89 (95% confidence interval,
0.82-0.97; p = 0.006). Dose-response analysis indicated that the summary relative risk of stroke
for an increase of 100 mg flavonoids consumed per day was 0.91 (95% confidence interval,
0.77-1.08) without heterogeneity among studies (I2 = 0%). Stratifying by duration, the relative risk
of stroke for flavonoid intake was 0.89 (95% confidence interval, 0.81-0.99) in longer than 10
years of follow-up studies.
Conclusions Results from this meta-analysis suggest that higher dietary flavonoid intake may
moderately lower the risk of stroke.
Article summary
Strengths of this study
1. This is the largest meta-analysis on flavonoid intake and the risk of stroke.
2. Higher dietary flavonoid intake is associated with a significantly reduced risk of stroke.
3. Dose-response analyses indicated a 9% lower risk of stroke per 100 mg/day increment of
flavonoids.
Limitations of this study
4. The possibility of residual confounding or confounding by unmeasured factors, which cannot be
ruled out in any observational study, must be acknowledged.
5. We cannot exclude the possibility of recall bias in the assessments of diet based on the food
frequency questionnaires.
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Introduction
Stroke is the second most common cause of death, as well as the fourth leading cause of lost
productivity and the second highest cause of disability worldwide.1,2
The prevention of stroke is
thus clearly an important public health priority. In recent decades, concern has mounted regarding
the premature incidence and mortality associated with stroke, and there is growing interest in
altering risk factors and reversing this global epidemic. Among the known risk factors for stroke,
dietary factors, especially dietary flavonoid intake, have aroused particular attention. Clinical
studies have shown that intakes of flavonoids reduce cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk.3-5
Additionally, experimental studies indicated that flavonoids have been shown to have both
antioxidant and antithrombotic properties.6,7
Over the last 2 decades, many prospective studies have assessed the association of dietary
flavonoid intake and risk of stroke.8-18
Although a recent meta-analysis that combined the results
from 8 cohort studies of flavonol intake and risk of stroke found a significant association of stroke
of 0.86 (95% CI, 0.75 to 0.99) for the highest versus lowest category of flavonol intake,19
the role
of flavonoid intake on stroke prevention is still controversial. In addition, flavonoid intake differed
substantially between studies, which makes it difficult to interpret the summary estimate based on
results from study populations with different flavonoid intakes.20
To fill these gaps, we conducted a dose-response meta-analysis of the current evidence for the
association between flavonoid exposure, including cohort studies of dietary flavonoids, with risk
of stroke.
Methods
Literature search
The search strategy was conducted according to the recommendations of the Meta-analysis of
Observational Studies in Epidemiology (MOOSE).21
We performed a systematic search of
PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane library through February, 2015. The following key words
were used in our search strategies: “flavonoids,” “polyphenols,” “phenolics,” “flavonols,”
“flavones,” “quercetin,” “kaempferol,” “myricetin,” “isorhamnetin,” “apigenin,” “luteolin,”
“proanthocyanidins,” “anthocyanins,” “anthocyanidins,” “flavan-3-ols,” “isoflavones,” and
“stroke,” “cerebrovascular disease,” “cerebrovascular disorders,” “cerebral infarct,” “ischemic
stroke,” “intracranial hemorrhage,” “intracranial artery disease,” “cardiovascular disease,”
“myocardial ischemia,” “myocardial infarct,” “ischemic heart disease,” “coronary heart disease,”
and “longitudinal studies,” “cohort studies,” “prospective studies,” “follow-up studies.” We
restricted the search to human studies. There were no language restrictions. In addition, we
reviewed the reference lists of obtained articles and contacted authors to identify additional
relevant studies and information. When the same or similar patient cohort was included in several
publications, only the most recent or complete report was selected for analysis. This search
strategy was updated on January 14, 2016.
Study Selection
Studies were selected for the meta-analysis if they fulfilled the following entry criteria: (1) the
study of adult patients had a community-based or population-based, prospective cohort design; (2)
the exposure of interest was intake of dietary flavonoids (including: flavonols, flavones,
flavanones, flavan-3-ols, anthocyanidins, proanthocyanidins, and isoflavones); (3) the outcome of
interest was stroke, including all types of stroke (fatal, nonfatal, ischemic, and hemorrhagic); (4)
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reported quantitative estimates of the multivariate-adjusted relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence
interval (CI) for stroke incidence or mortality associated with flavonoids intake; and (5) longer
than 1 year of follow-up. Studies were excluded if (1) the study design was cross-sectional; or
case-control; (2) reported unadjusted or only age- or sex-adjusted RR; and (3) shorter than 1 year
of follow-up.
Data Abstraction
All data were independently abstracted in duplicate by 2 investigators (ML, and XZ).
Discrepancies were resolved by consensus. When necessary, the original authors were contacted
for supplementary information. The following data were extracted from each study: first author’s
last name, publication year, country where the study was performed, location, number of
participants, participants’ age, follow-up years, assessment of dietary data and stroke, number of
cases, adjusted covariates and study quality.
Assessment of study quality
The Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS) was used to assess the quality of studies.22
The quality of
cohort studies were evaluated in the following three major components: selection of the study
group (0-4 stars), quality of the adjustment for confounding (0-2 stars) and assessment of outcome
in the cohorts (0-3 stars). A higher score represents better methodological quality. The full score
was 9 stars. Studies were graded as the high-quality if they were awarded >8 stars.
Statistical Analysis
Relative risks (RRs) were used as the common measure of association between flavonoid intake
and stroke, and hazard ratios (HRs) were considered equivalent to RRs. Data analysis used
multivariate-adjusted outcome data. We converted these values in every study by using their
natural logarithms, and the SEs were calculated from these logarithmic numbers and their
corresponding 95% CIs. When data on total stroke was not available, we used data from ischemic
stroke, nonfatal stroke, or fatal stroke as an equivalent to total stroke.23
We combined these
estimates using a random-effects model, which takes into account both within-study and
between-study variabilities.24
In the dose-response analysis, the generalized least square for trend
estimation method described by Greenland and Longnecker25
and Orsini et al26
was used to
calculate study-specific slopes (linear trends) and 95% confidence intervals. The method requires
the distributions of cases and person years for exposure categories, and median/mean of flavonoid
intake level for each comparison group. We assigned the midpoint of the upper and lower
boundaries of each comparison group to determine mean flavonoid intake level if the median or
mean intake was not provided. If the lower or upper boundary for the lowest and highest category,
respectively, was not reported, we assumed that the boundary had the same amplitude as the
closest category.20
Additionally, we first created restricted cubic splines with 3 knots at fixed
percentiles 25%, 50%, and 75% of the distribution.27
A p value for nonlinearity was calculated by
testing the null hypothesis that the coefficient of the fractional polynomials component is equal to
zero. When data on total flavonoid intake included in this dose-response meta-analysis was not
available, we used data from flavonols, flavones, flavanones, flavan-3-ols, and isoflavones (in the
sequential order) as an equivalent to total flavonoid. Heterogeneity among studies was evaluated
using the chi-square test based on Cochran’s Q test and I2 statistic at p<0.10 level of
significance,24
which describes the percentage of variability in the effect estimates that is due to
heterogeneity rather than chance.28
We regard I2 of <40% as “heterogeneity that might not be
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important” and >75% as “considerable heterogeneity” based on the suggestion of Cochrane
Handbook for Systemic Review of Interventions.29
All available data was utilized in the primary
analysis. Subsequent subgroup analyses were conducted according to stroke outcomes
(fatal/nonfatal versus ischemic), follow-up duration (≤10 years versus >10 years), sex (male
versus female versus combined), Geographical area (United States versus Asian versus European),
history of stroke (yes versus no), and study quality (high [score>8] versus low [score ≤8]). To
explore possible explanations for heterogeneity and to test the robustness of the association, we
conducted meta-regression, sensitivity analyses and above mentioned stratified analysis. The
possibility of publication bias was evaluated using the Egger rank correlation test at p<0.10 level
of significance and visual inspection of a funnel plot.30,31
In the case of publication bias,
“nonparametric trim-and-fill” method was used to compute risk estimates corrected for this bias.32
All the statistical analyses were performed in STATA 12.0 (StataCorp, College Station, TX). p
values were 2-sided and p<0.05 was considered statistically significant.
Results
Literature Search
Figure 1 shows the results of literature research and selection. We initially identified 236 citations.
After exclusion of duplicate records and studies that did not fulfill our inclusion criteria, 28 studies
remained, and we further evaluated the full texts of these 28 publications. Of these, we excluded
17 studies for the following reasons: no stroke outcomes (n=8), duplicate reports (n=4) and
reviews (n=5). Finally, 11 studies met the inclusion criteria and were included in the
meta-analysis.8-18
Study Characteristics
The characteristics of the studies and of their participants are presented in Table 1 and
Supplemental tables 1 and 2. A total of 11 studies involving 356,627 participants and more than
5,154 stroke cases were included in the meta-analysis.8-18
Among 11 studies, 4 were conducted in
the United States,11,14,16,17
1 from an Asian country (Singapore),18
and 6 studies were from
European countries (including Finland, Netherlands).8-10,12,13,15
The number of participants ranged
from 755 in the study by Marniemi et al12
to 98,469 in the study by McCullough et al.17
4 studies
included both men and women,10,12,17,18
3 studies included only men,8,9,15
and 4 studies only
women.11,13,14,16
The follow-up duration ranged from 6.1 to 28 years,8,10
with a median of 14 years.
The dietary assessment of flavonoid intake varied across studies, in most of the studies, intake of
flavonoids was measured by food frequency questionnaires (FFQs) and dietary history interview.
In most of the studies, stroke was assessed by medical records or death certificates based on
ICD-8,9,10.33-35
All studies provided adjusted risk estimates (e.g., sex, body mass index, smoking,
education, et al), overall quality scores ranged for 7 to 9, and the median score was 8.
Flavonoids intake and Stroke Risk
The multivariable adjusted RRs of fatal or nonfatal stroke in relation to dietary flavonoids intake
from individual studies and the combined RR are presented in figure 2. For the 11 studies, only 1
showed that flavonoid intake was significantly associated with decreased risk of stroke.10
Overall,
participants with the highest dietary flavonoid intake, compared with the lowest, experienced a
significant decreased risk for development of stroke (combined RR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.82-0.97;
Figure 2) after adjustment for other risk factors. We saw no heterogeneity among studies (p =
0.774, I2
= 0%). Among 11 studies, 3 studies were eligible for the dose-response analysis of
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flavonoid intake and risk of stroke.9,14,16
Using a restricted cubic splines model, dose-response
analysis found a statistically nonsignificant inverse association with risk of stroke per 100-mg/day
increment of flavonoid intake (relative risk 0.91, 95% confidence interval 0.77 to 1.08, I2 = 0%, p
= 0.285; Figure 3 and 4). No heterogeneity was observed (p = 0.974).
Stratifying analysis
In most subgroups, dietary flavonoid intake was not associated with stroke. Stratifying by sex, the
associations between dietary flavonoid intake and risk of stroke were similar between males and
females (table 2). The pooled RR of stroke were 0.86 (95% CI: 0.76-0.98) from studies conducted
in the United States, 0.88 (95% CI: 0.77-1.00) in European, and 0.97 (95% CI: 0.81-1.16) in Asian
(table 2). Stratifying by duration, we observed the protective effect of dietary flavonoid intake in
longer than 10 years of follow-up studies. The associations were more evident in several strata of
study characteristics (table 2).
Sensitivity Analysis and Publication Bias
We tested the robustness of our results in sensitivity analysis, when a single study included in the
meta-analysis was deleted at a time, the results of meta-analysis remained largely unchanged,
indicating that the results of the present meta-analysis were stable (data not shown). Visual
inspection of the funnel plot identified asymmetry (Supplemental figure 1). There was no
statistical evidence of publication bias among studies for stroke risk by using Egger test (p =
0.238).
Meta Regression
In this meta-analysis, although no heterogeneity was observed among individual studies, a
multivariate regression was conducted to explore the potential sources of heterogeneity under
stroke. The results of regression suggested that stroke outcomes, follow-up duration, sex,
geographical area, history of stroke, and study quality were no significant sources of
heterogeneity.
Discussion
Our meta-analysis of 11 prospective studies indicates that dietary flavonoid intake may be
inversely associated with risk of stroke. In addition, dose-response analysis indicated that a
100-mg/day increment of flavonoids intake was associated with a 9% lower risk of stroke (RR
0.91, 95% CI 0.77 to 1.08). However, this association was not statistically significant.
Potential benefits of flavonoids
Flavonoids, a large class of polyphenols, are widely distributed in plants and are present in
considerable amounts in fruits, vegetables, tea and red wine. These bioactive polyphenols are
non-energetic, non-nutrient secondary metabolites present in plants and cannot be synthesized by
humans.36
In recent decades, overwhelming evidence indicates that flavonoid intake is associated
with well-known risk-factors for CVD. There is also some evidence that flavonoids may have a
role in preventing the development of CVD (e.g., coronary heart disease, stroke, et al).37,38
In
addition, although there are many putative biological mechanisms underlying a possible
cardioprotective role for flavonoids,39
including anti-inflammatory,40
antioxidant,6 recovery of
endothelial function by some compounds, and reductions in platelet aggregation,41
and the effect
of individual compounds or interactions between flavonoids is still largely unknown, flavonol and
isoflavone intake may explain some of this beneficial effect.19,42
Although, the exact mechanism by which flavonoid intake may protect against the development of
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stroke is still ambiguous, a possible mechanism is the regulation of blood pressure, especially by
anthocyanins, due to an increase in endothelial-derived nitric oxide (NO).43
Moreover, mainly
attributed to antioxidant mechanisms, flavonoids reduced mitochondrial lipid peroxidation and
loss of mitochondrial transmembrane electric potential caused by oxidative stress induced by ADP
plus iron.44
A third mechanism is the protective action of flavonoids on the anti-inflammatory
responses in the brain, that may be attributable to raft disrupting and antioxidant effects.45
Because
the flavonoids are very diverse in their bioavailability and bioactivity, the rationale for assuming
that intakes of all flavonoid classes might have effects on stroke needs more consideration.
Results in relation to other studies
Over the past decades, despite extensive studies that investigated the role of flavonoid intake on
either cardiovascular diseases or cerebrovascular diseases, it remains unclear whether the
association between flavonoid intake and risk of stroke is causal. One study suggested flavonoids
are associated with increased risk of stroke,10
the others failed to find the association.8,9
More,
importantly, the possibility of reverse causality should be addressed. A previous meta-analysis of
flavonol intake and risk of stroke showed that flavonol intake was inversely associated with stroke
incidence.38
That meta-analysis included 6 prospective cohorts studies from 3 different countries,
4 were conducted in Europe (3 in Finland and 1 in The Netherlands) and 2 in the United States.
The inverse associations between flavonol intake and stroke were observed in two prospective
cohort studies (Zutphen Elderly Study and Kuopio Study). Weak and nonsignificant inverse
associations were found in the Finnish Mobile Clinic Study and Women’s Health Study, this result
was consistent with a detailed overview by Vogiatzoglou et al,46
whereas no associations were
noted in the Iowa Women’s Health Study and Alpha-Tocopherol, Beta-Carotene Cancer
Prevention Study. The results for flavonols were consistent with our findings on flavonoids. But
the data from studies included by previous meta-analysis were limited to August 2009.38
Interestingly, since then 3 new studies on the relationship between flavonoids intake and risk of
stroke were published.16-18
To obtain a more comprehensive estimate of the putative influence of
the flavonoids on stroke, we conducted a meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies. To our
knowledge, this meta-analysis is the largest to reveal a potential relationship between dietary
flavonoid intake and risk of stroke. However, most studies assess dietary flavonoid intake based
on self-reported questionnaires using FFQs, and medical records were not always available for
stroke classification; the possibility that misclassification of flavonoid intake and stroke was
inevitable and likely to bias true association among individual studies.
Strengths and limitations
We have several important strengths compared with previous meta-analyses.19,38
The present
meta-analysis included 2 times more participants and 2 times more stroke cases. To our knowledge,
this is the largest meta-analysis on flavonoid intake and the risk of stroke. We also explored
possible sources of heterogeneity using subgroup analyses and the meta-regression method, all of
them were not significant. Moreover, the presence of a dose-response relationship further
strengthened the association of dietary flavonoid intake with risk of stroke. Therefore, the results
should be more reliable.
In interpreting the results, some limitations of this meta-analysis should be acknowledged. First,
one limitation of any meta-analysis of observational studies is that residual confounding or
confounding by unmeasured factors (such as intake of other nutrients) may have affected the
strength of the association between flavonoid intake and stroke risk. Additionally, all the studies
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used in this dose-response analysis did not include complete data on total flavonoid intake; the
flavonoid intake may have been underestimated in these original studies. Thus, these findings
should be treated with caution. Second, we cannot exclude the possibility of recall bias in the
dietary assessment based on the FFQs. However, the prospective study design and exclusion of
participants with chronic diseases at baseline should minimize such bias. Third, a noticeable
limitation of our study was the potential for bias due to inevitable measurement error and
misclassification, especially for individuals with lower consumption levels. We attempted to
reduce measurement error by adjusting for energy or fiber intake and using cumulatively averaged
intake levels. Fourth, we tried to study the main sources of flavonoids. But, we failed because of
insufficient data. Different sub-classes for flavonoid were used in the primary studies included in
this meta-analysis. Among 11 studies, 4 studies included the same sub-classes (including quercetin,
kaempferol, myricetin, luteolin, and apigenin),8,9,11,12
another 5 studies included the similar
sub-classes (including flavonols, flavones, flavanones, flavan-3-ols, and so on),10,14-17
and 2
studies included the similar compounds (including daidzein, genistein, formononetin, biochanin A,
and glycitein),13,18
as summarized in supplemental table 2. Among 11 studies, only 3 studies
were eligible for the dose-response analysis, and the compounds of flavonoid
subclasses are different among these studies. Of these, 2 studies included flavanones, 2
studies included flavones, 2 studies included flavonols, 2 studies included flavan-3-ols, and 2
studies included isoflavones. Due to the limited number of studies that met dose-response analyses
and the insufficient statistical power, we did not conduct dose-response analysis separately on
each class. Thus, we evaluated the effects of total flavonoid intake on stroke risk rather than the
wide-range of flavonoid sub-classes. On the one hand, in order to balance the risk of a type I error
(the true effect is zero but we reject the null) and a type II error (the true effect is not zero but we
fail to reject the null), we combined these estimates using a random-effects model, which takes
into account both within-study and between-study variabilities.24
Thus, these results should be
treated with caution. Finally, a possible limitation is due to language bias. We attempted to
minimize this bias by searching major electronic databases with no language restriction. However,
several articles published in non-English or unpublished reports might not appear in international
journal databases, and could be omitted by our searches.47
Conclusions
In summary, results from this meta-analysis suggest that higher dietary flavonoid intake may
moderately lower the risk of stroke after adjustment of established cardiovascular risk factors.
Randomized controlled studies are needed to evaluate the effects of flavonoid intake on stroke
risk.
Contributors: ML and ZT conceived and designed the study. ML and WH searched the databases
and checked them according to the eligible criteria and exclusion criteria. ZT helped develop
search strategies. XZ and WH extracted quantitative data. XZ, and WH analyzed the data. ML
wrote the draft of the paper. All authors contributed to writing, reviewing, or revising the paper.
ZT is the guarantor.
Funding: This work was not funded by any foundation or program.
Competing interests: All authors have completed the ICMJE uniform disclosure form at
www.icmje.org/coi_disclosure.pdf (available on request from the corresponding author) and
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declare: no support from any organization for the submitted work; no financial relationships with
any organizations that might have an interest in the submitted work in the previous three years; no
other relationships or activities that could appear to have influenced the submitted work.
Ethical approval: Not required.
Data sharing: No additional data available.
Figures Information
Figure 1. Process of literature search and study selection.
(TIFF)
Figure 2. Random effects analysis of fully adjusted studies for highest versus lowest intake of
flavonoids and risk of stroke.
(TIFF)
Figure 3. Dose-response relationship between dietary flavonoids intake and stroke risk. The
solid line represents point estimates of the association between flavonoid intake and stroke
risk, and the dotted lines are 95% CIs. The horizontal line is the reference line.
(TIFF)
Figure 4. Forest plot of flavonoid and risk of stroke. 4 cohort studies were eligible for the
dose-response analysis of flavonoid intake and risk of stroke. Relative risk of less than 1.0
favours exposure to greater intake of flavonoid. CI, Confidence interval.
(TIFF)
Appendix figure information
Supplemental figure 1. Egger funnel plot for detection of publication bias for stroke risk.
(DOC)
Appendix table information
Supplemental table 1. Confounding factors and methods for adjustment.
(DOC)
Supplemental table 2. Flavonoid subclasses and compounds for each study.
(DOC)
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Table 1. Characteristics of studies included in the meta-analysis
First author,
publication (yr) Country/Population
No. Participants
(% male)
Age range or
mean (yr)
Follow-Up
Duration (yr)
Assessment of
dietary data
Stroke
Ascertainment
No. of stroke
cases
Pre-stroke
Excluded
Study
Quality
Hirvonen et al.8
2000
Finland/European
26497 (100)
50-69
6.1
A self-administered,
modified diet history
method
Any type of stroke
based on ICD-8, 9
codes
Ischemic: 736
Yes
8
Arts et al.9 2001
Netherlands/European
806 (100)
65-84
15
A cross-check
dietary history
method
Any type of stroke
based on ICD-9
codes
Fatal: 47,
Nonfatal: 88
No
7
Knekt et al.10
2002
Finland/European
9131 (NA)
30-69
28
A dietary history
interview
Any type of stroke
based on ICD-8
codes
Fatal or
nonfatal: 681
No
8
Sesso et al.11
2003
United States
38445 (0)
53.9
6.9
A food-frequency
questionnaire
Any type of stroke
based on clinical
diagnosis
Fatal or
nonfatal: NA
Yes
9
Marniemi et al.12
2005
Finland/European
755 (47.8)
65-99
10
A dietary history
interview
Any type of stroke
based on ICD-9
codes
Fatal: 45,
Nonfatal: 25
Yes
8
van der Schouw et
al.13
2005
Netherlands/European
16165 (0)
49-70
6.3
A validated
food-frequency
questionnaire
Any type of stroke
based on ICD-9
codes
Fatal or
nonfatal: 147
Yes
9
Mink et al.14
2007
United States
34489 (0)
55-69
16
A food-frequency
questionnaire
Any type of stroke
based on ICD-9
codes
Fatal: 469
Yes
9
Mursu et al.15
2008
Finland/European
1950 (100)
42-60
15.2
An instructed 4d
food recording by
Any type of stroke
based on ICD-9, 10
Ischemic: 102
Yes
9
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household measures codes
Cassidy et al.16
2012
United States
69622 (0)
30-55
14
A semiquantitative
food-frequency
questionnaires
interview
Any type of stroke
based on medical
records, autopsy
reports, and death
certificates
Ischemic: 943
Yes
8
McCullough et
al.17
2012
United States
98469 (38.8)
70
7
A semiquantitative
food-frequency
questionnaires
interview
Any type of stroke
based on ICD-9, 10
codes
Fatal: 573
Yes
9
Talaei et al.18
2014
Singapore/Asian
60298 (44.5)
45-74
14.7
A semiquantitative
food-frequency
questionnaires
interview
Any type of stroke
based on ICD-9
codes
Fatal: 1298
No
8
Abbreviations: ICD: international classification of diseases.
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Table 2. Stratified analyses of flavonoids intake and stroke risk
Group No. of studies RR (95% CI) Heterogeneity test
P value of pooled effect χχχχ2 P value I
2, %
Overall studies
Fatal/nonfatal stroke 11 0.89 (0.82-0.97) 6.48 0.774 0 0.006
Ischemic stroke 3 0.93 (0.80-1.07) 1.03 0.609 0 0.301
Geographical area
United States 4 0.86 (0.76-0.98) 1.50 0.683 0 0.026
Asian 1 0.97 (0.81-1.16) 0 - - 0.740
European 6 0.88 (0.77-1.00) 3.81 0.577 0 0.051
History of stroke
Yes 3 0.89 (0.78-1.02) 2.10 0.351 4.6 0.105
No 8 0.89 (0.80-0.99) 4.38 0.735 0 0.027
Sex
Male 4 0.82 (0.64-1.06) 4.90 0.179 38.8 0.130
Female 5 0.92 (0.80-1.05) 2.39 0.664 0 0.216
Combined 3 0.86 (0.72-1.04) 2.97 0.227 32.6 0.114
Mean follow-up, years
≤10 5 0.88 (0.77-1.01) 3.78 0.437 0 0.067
>10 6 0.89 (0.81-0.99) 2.68 0.750 0 0.036
Quality score
High, score>8 5 0.85 (0.73-0.99) 2.26 0.688 0 0.038
Low, score≤8 6 0.91 (0.82-1.00) 3.73 0.589 0 0.048
Abbreviations: CI = confidence interval; RR = relative risk.
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Process of literature search and study selection.
152x101mm (300 x 300 DPI)
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Random effects analysis of fully adjusted studies for highest versus lowest intake of flavonoids and risk of stroke.
152x101mm (300 x 300 DPI)
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Dose-response relationship between dietary flavonoids intake and stroke risk. The solid line represents point
estimates of the association between flavonoid intake and stroke risk, and the dotted lines are 95% CIs. The
horizontal line is the reference line.
152x101mm (300 x 300 DPI)
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Forest plot of flavonoid and risk of stroke. 3 cohort studies were eligible for the dose-response analysis of flavonoid intake and risk of stroke. Relative risk of less than 1.0 favours exposure to greater intake of
flavonoid. CI, Confidence interval. 152x101mm (300 x 300 DPI)
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152x101mm (300 x 300 DPI)
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Supplemental table 1. Confounding factors and methods for adjustmentReference Adjusted covariates Total stroke Nonfatal stroke Fatal Stroke Ischemic Stroke Hemorrhagic
strokeHirvonen et al.8 2000 Age, BMI, SBP, DBP, height, cholesterol, diabetes, history
CHD, smoking, alcohol, supplementation group and education.equal toischemic strokeresults
0.98 (0.80-1.21)
Arts et al.9 2001Age, BMI, smoking, alcohol, physical activity, coffee, diet,energy, FA, prescribed diet, intakes of fish, coffee, cholesterol,fiber, fish, vit C, vit E and β-carotene
0.92(0.51-1.68)
Knekt et al.10 2002 Age, sex, geographic area, occupation, BMI, BP, cholesterol,diabetes, region, SE and smoking
0.79(0.64-0.98)
Sesso et al.11 2003 Age, exercise, aspirin, BMI, BP, postmenopausal hormone use,cholesterol, diabetes, history of CHD, smoking, alcohol, F﹠V,fiber, folate and vit E.
0.70(0.46-1.07)
Marniemi et al.12
2005Age, sex, smoking, functional capacity and weight adjustedenergy intake.
0.65(0.34-1.23)
van der Schouw etal.13 2005
Age, BMI, cholesterol, physical activity, diabetes,hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, HRT, OC, MS, smoking,alcohol, energy, F﹠A, fiber, protein, fruit, vegetable andmenopausal status.
1.05(0.64-1.70)
Mink et al.14 2007 Age, BMI, BP, diabetes, HRT, MS, education, smoking,activity, estrogen use, WHR and energy
equal to fatalstroke results
0.94 (0.69-1.29)
Mursu et al.15 2008 Age, examination years, BMI, SBP, HM, cholesterol, TAG,maximal oxygen uptake, smoking, history of CVD, diabetes,alcohol, energy-adjusted intake of folate and vit E.
equal toischemic strokeresults
0.71 (0.37-1.37)
Cassidy et al.16 2012 Age, physical activity, smoking, HRT, BMI, aspirin use, equal to 0.90 (0.73-1.11)
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diabetes, hypercholesterolemia, history of CHD, alcohol,menopausal status, energy, use of multivitamins and history ofhypertension
ischemic strokeresults
McCullough et al.17
2012Age, smoking, beer and liquor intake, history of hypertension,history of cholesterol, family history of MI, BMI, physicalactivity, energy intake, aspirin use, HRT, and sex
equal to fatalstroke results
0.83 (0.66-1.04)
Talaei et al.18 2014 Age, sex, dialect, year of interview, educational level, BMI,physical activity, smoking duration, alcohol, diabetes,hypertension, CHD, stroke, energy and fiber
equal to fatalstroke results
0.97 (0.81-1.16)
Abbreviations: BMI, body mass index; CVD, cardiovascular disease; CHD, coronary heart disease; BP, blood pressure; SBP: systolic blood pressures; DBP: diastolic bloodpressures; vit C: vitamin C; vit E: vitamin E; FA: fatty acids; F﹠V: fruit and vegetable intake; MS: menopausal status; HRT: hormonal replacement therapy; OC: oralcontraceptives; WHR: waist-to-hip ratio; HM: hypertension medication; MI: myocardial infarction.
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Supplemental table 2. Flavonoid subclasses and compounds for each study.Reference Flavonoid subclassesHirvonen et al.8 2000 Quercetin, kaempherol, myricetin, luteolin, and apigenin..Arts et al.9 2001 Quercetin, kaempferol, myricetin, luteolin, and apigenin..Knekt et al.10 2002 4 flavonols (kaempferol, quercetin, myricetin, and
isorhamnetin), 2 flavones (apigenin and luteolin), and 3flavanones (hesperetin, naringenin, and eriodictyol).
Sesso et al.11 2003 Quercetin, kaempferol, myricetin, luteolin, and apigenin..Marniemi et al.12 2005 Quercetin, kaempferol, myricetin, luteolin, and apigenin..van der Schouw et al.13
2005Daidzein, Genistein, Formononetin, Biochanin A.
Mink et al.14 2007 4 flavonols (kaempferol, quercetin, myricetin, andisorhamnetin), 2 flavones (apigenin and luteolin), 3 flavanones(hesperetin, naringenin, and eriodictyol), flavan-3-ols,anthocyanidins, isoflavones, proanthocyanidins.
Mursu et al.15 2008 Flavonols, flavones, flavanones, flavan-3-ols andanthocyanidins.
Cassidy et al.16 2012 4 flavonols (kaempferol, quercetin, myricetin, andisorhamnetin), 2 flavones (apigenin and luteolin), 6anthocyanins (cyaniding, delphinindin, malvidin, pelargonidin,petunidin, peonidin), flavan-3-ols (catechins, epicatechins), and3 flavanones (hesperetin, naringenin, and eriodictyol).
McCullough et al.17 2012 Anthocyanidins, flavan-3-ols, flavanones, flavones, flavonols,proanthocyanidins, isoflavones.
Talaei et al.18 2014 Genistein, daidzein, and glycitein.
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MOOSE Checklist
Dietary flavonoid intake and the risk of stroke: A dose-response
meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies
Min Li master student1, Xiaowei Zhang master student
1, Wenshang Hou master
student1, Zhenyu Tang associate professor
1
1Department of Neurology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University,
Nanchang 330006, Jiangxi Province, People’s Republic of China
Correspondence to: Zhenyu Tang, Department of Neurology, The Second Affiliated
Hospital of Nanchang University, No. 1, Minde Road, Nanchang, Jiangxi 330006,
People’s Republic of China
Email: [email protected]
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Criteria Brief description of how the criteria were handled in
the meta-analysis
Reporting of background should
include
√ Problem definition Stroke is the second most common cause of death, as well
as the fourth leading cause of lost productivity and the
second highest cause of disability worldwide. The
prevention of stroke is thus clearly an important public
health priority. In recent decades, concern has mounted
regarding the premature incidence and mortality
associated with stroke, with growing interest in altering
risk factors and reversing this global epidemic. Among
the known risk factors for stroke, dietary factors,
especially dietary flavonoid intake, have aroused
particular attention. Clinical studies have shown that
intakes of flavonoids reduce cardiovascular disease
(CVD) risk. Additionally, experimental studies indicated
that flavonoids have been shown to have both antioxidant
and antithrombotic properties.
√ Hypothesis statement Flavonoid intake decreases risk of stroke.
√ Description of study outcomes Stroke.
√ Type of exposure or
intervention used
Flavonoids
√ Type of study designs used We included (1) original studies (eg, not review articles,
meeting abstracts, editorials, or commentaries); (2)
prospective cohort design (eg, not cross sectional design,
case-control design).
√ Study population We placed no restriction.
Reporting of search strategy
should include
√ Qualifications of searchers The credentials of the two investigators WH and ML are
indicated in the author list.
√ Search strategy, including time
period included in the
synthesis and keywords
PubMed from 1965 –January 2016
Embase from 1974 –January 2016
Cochrane library from 1990- January 2016
Keywords: (“flavonoids,” “polyphenols,” “phenolics,”
“flavonols,” “flavones,” “quercetin,” “kaempferol,”
“myricetin,” “isorhamnetin,” “apigenin,” “luteolin,”
“proanthocyanidins,” “anthocyanins,” “anthocyanidins,”
“flavan-3-ols,” “isoflavones,” and “stroke,”
“cerebrovascular disease,” “cerebrovascular disorders,”
“cerebral infarct,” “ischemic stroke,” “intracranial
hemorrhage,” “intracranial artery disease,”
“cardiovascular disease,” “myocardial ischemia,”
“myocardial infarct,” “ischemic heart disease,” “coronary
heart disease,” and “longitudinal studies,” “cohort
studies,” “prospective studies,” “follow-up studies.”).
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√ Databases and registries
searched
PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane library
√ Search software used, name
and version, including special
features
We did not employ a search software. EndNote was used
to merge retrieved citations and eliminate duplications
√ Use of hand searching We hand-searched bibliographies of retrieved papers for
additional references,
√ List of citations located and
those excluded, including
justifications
Details of the literature search process are outlined in the
process of literature search and study selection. The
citation list is available upon request
√ Method of addressing articles
published in languages other
than English
We placed no restrictions on language; local scientists
fluent in the original language of the article were
contacted for translation
√ Method of handling abstracts
and unpublished studies
We had contacted a few authors for unpublished studies
on the association.
√ Description of any contact with
authors
We contacted authors who had conducted multivariate
analysis with coronary heart disease as a covariate, but
the exposure of interest was not intake of dietary
flavonoids.
Reporting of methods should
include
√ Description of relevance or
appropriateness of studies
assembled for assessing the
hypothesis to be tested
Detailed inclusion and exclusion criteria were described
in the methods section.
√ Rationale for the selection and
coding of data
Data extracted from each of the studies were relevant to
the population characteristics, study design, exposure,
outcome, and possible effect modifiers of the association.
√ Assessment of confounding Restricted the analysis to age- or sex-adjusted estimates
only. Conducted sensitivity analyses by eliminating
studies that had not adjusted for possible confounders.
√ Assessment of study quality,
including blinding of quality
assessors; stratification or
regression on possible
predictors of study results
The Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS) was used to assess
the quality of studies. The quality of cohort studies were
evaluated in the following three major components:
selection of the study group (0-4 stars), quality of the
adjustment for confounding (0-2 stars) and assessment of
outcome in the cohorts (0-3 stars). A higher score
represents better methodological quality. The full score
was 9 stars. Studies were graded as the high-quality if
they met >8 awarded stars.
√ Assessment of heterogeneity Heterogeneity of the studies were explored within two
types of study designs using Cochrane’s Q test of
heterogeneity and I2 statistic that provides the relative
amount of variance of the summary effect due to the
between-study heterogeneity.
√ Description of statistical
methods in sufficient detail to
Description of methods of meta-analyses, sensitivity
analyses, subgroup analyses, meta regression and
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be replicated assessment of publication bias are detailed in the
methods.
√ Provision of appropriate tables
and graphics
We included 1 flow chart, several summary tables and
figures.
Reporting of results should
include
√ Graph summarizing individual
study estimates and overall
estimate
Figure 2, 3 and 4
√ Table giving descriptive
information for each study
included
Table 1 and Supplemental tables 1 and 2
√ Results of sensitivity testing Table 2
√ Indication of statistical
uncertainty of findings
95% confidence intervals were presented with all
summary estimates, I2 values and results of sensitivity
analyses
Reporting of discussion should
include
√ Quantitative assessment of bias Subgroup analyses indicate heterogeneity in strengths of
the association due to most common biases in cohort
studies.
√ Justification for exclusion We excluded studies that had not adjusted for or were
standardized by age or sex, a potential confounder, and
used different exposure or outcome assessment for the
comparison groups.
√ Assessment of quality of
included studies
We discussed the results of the subgroup analyses, and
potential reasons for the observed heterogeneity.
Reporting of conclusions should
include
√ Consideration of alternative
explanations for observed
results
We discussed that potential unmeasured confounders such
as other chronic diseases may have caused residual
confounding, but the measured factors that are correlated
with such confounders would have mitigated the bias.
We noted that the variations in the strengths of
association may be due to true population differences, or
to differences in quality of studies.
√ Generalization of the
conclusions
Our meta-analysis suggests that dietary flavonoid intake
may be inversely associated with risk of stroke. In
addition, dose-response analysis found a statistically
nonsignificant inverse association, with a relative risk of
0.91 (95% confidence intervals, 0.77-1.08) for each 100-
mg/day increment of flavonoid intake.
√ Guidelines for future research We recommend future preferably randomized controlled
studies should explore what kind of flavonoids can reduce
the risk of stroke.
√ Disclosure of funding source No separate funding was necessary for the undertaking of
this systematic review.
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Dietary flavonoid intake and the risk of stroke: A dose-
response
meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies
Journal: BMJ Open
Manuscript ID bmjopen-2015-008680.R5
Article Type: Research
Date Submitted by the Author: 16-May-2016
Complete List of Authors: Tang, Zhenyu; The Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang 330006, Jiangxi Province, People’s Republic of China, Department of Neurology
Li, Min; The Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang 330006, Jiangxi Province, People’s Republic of China, Department of Neurology Zhang, Xiaowei; The Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang 330006, Jiangxi Province, People’s Republic of China, Department of Neurology Hou, Wenshang; The Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang 330006, Jiangxi Province, People’s Republic of China, Department of Neurology
<b>Primary Subject Heading</b>:
Evidence based practice
Secondary Subject Heading: Cardiovascular medicine, Evidence based practice, Neurology, Nutrition and
metabolism, Public health
Keywords: STROKE MEDICINE, NEUROLOGY, PUBLIC HEALTH
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Dietary flavonoid intake and the risk of stroke: A dose-response
meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies
Zhenyu Tang associate professora,1,*, Min Li master student
a,1, Xiaowei Zhang
master studenta, Wenshang Hou master student
a
a Department of Neurology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang
330006, Jiangxi Province, People’s Republic of China
* Correspondence to: Zhenyu Tang, Department of Neurology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of
Nanchang University, No. 1, Minde Road, Nanchang, Jiangxi 330006, People’s Republic of China
1 Zhenyu Tang and Min Li contributed equally to this work.
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Abstract
Objective To clarify and quantify the potential association between the intake of flavonoids and
risk of stroke.
Design Meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies.
Data source Studies published before January 2016 identified through electronic searches using
PubMed, Embase and the Cochrane Library.
Eligibility criteria for selecting studies Prospective cohort studies with relative risks and 95%
confidence intervals for stroke according to the intake of flavonoids (assessed as dietary intake).
Results The meta-analysis yielded 11 prospective cohort studies involving 356,627 participants
and more than 5,154 stroke cases. The pooled estimate of multivariate relative risk of stroke for
the highest compared with the lowest dietary flavonoid intake was 0.89 (95% confidence interval,
0.82-0.97; p = 0.006). Dose-response analysis indicated that the summary relative risk of stroke
for an increase of 100 mg flavonoids consumed per day was 0.91 (95% confidence interval,
0.77-1.08) without heterogeneity among studies (I2 = 0%). Stratifying by duration, the relative risk
of stroke for flavonoid intake was 0.89 (95% confidence interval, 0.81-0.99) in longer than 10
years of follow-up studies.
Conclusions Results from this meta-analysis suggest that higher dietary flavonoid intake may
moderately lower the risk of stroke.
Article summary
Strengths of this study
1. This is the largest meta-analysis on flavonoid intake and the risk of stroke.
2. Higher dietary flavonoid intake is associated with a significantly reduced risk of stroke.
3. Dose-response analyses indicated a 9% lower risk of stroke per 100 mg/day increment of
flavonoids.
Limitations of this study
4. The possibility of residual confounding or confounding by unmeasured factors, which cannot be
ruled out in any observational study, must be acknowledged.
5. We cannot exclude the possibility of recall bias in the assessments of diet based on the food
frequency questionnaires.
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Introduction
Stroke is the second most common cause of death, as well as the fourth leading cause of lost
productivity and the second highest cause of disability worldwide.1,2
The prevention of stroke is
thus clearly an important public health priority. In recent decades, concern has mounted regarding
the premature incidence and mortality associated with stroke, and there is growing interest in
altering risk factors and reversing this global epidemic. Among the known risk factors for stroke,
dietary factors, especially dietary flavonoid intake, have aroused particular attention. Clinical
studies have shown that intakes of flavonoids reduce cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk.3-5
Additionally, experimental studies indicated that flavonoids have been shown to have both
antioxidant and antithrombotic properties.6,7
Over the last 2 decades, many prospective studies have assessed the association of dietary
flavonoid intake and risk of stroke.8-18
Although a recent meta-analysis that combined the results
from 8 cohort studies of flavonol intake and risk of stroke found a significant association of stroke
of 0.86 (95% CI, 0.75 to 0.99) for the highest versus lowest category of flavonol intake,19
the role
of flavonoid intake on stroke prevention is still controversial. In addition, flavonoid intake differed
substantially between studies, which makes it difficult to interpret the summary estimate based on
results from study populations with different flavonoid intakes.20
To fill these gaps, we conducted a dose-response meta-analysis of the current evidence for the
association between flavonoid exposure, including cohort studies of dietary flavonoids, with risk
of stroke.
Methods
Literature search
The search strategy was conducted according to the recommendations of the Meta-analysis of
Observational Studies in Epidemiology (MOOSE).21
We performed a systematic search of
PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane library through February, 2015. The following key words
were used in our search strategies: “flavonoids,” “polyphenols,” “phenolics,” “flavonols,”
“flavones,” “quercetin,” “kaempferol,” “myricetin,” “isorhamnetin,” “apigenin,” “luteolin,”
“proanthocyanidins,” “anthocyanins,” “anthocyanidins,” “flavan-3-ols,” “isoflavones,”
“flavanones,” “catechins” and “stroke,” “cerebrovascular disease,” “cerebrovascular disorders,”
“cerebral infarct,” “ischemic stroke,” “intracranial hemorrhage,” “intracranial artery disease,”
“cardiovascular disease,” “myocardial ischemia,” “myocardial infarct,” “ischemic heart disease,”
“coronary heart disease,” and “longitudinal studies,” “cohort studies,” “prospective studies,”
“follow-up studies.” We restricted the search to human studies. There were no language
restrictions. In addition, we reviewed the reference lists of obtained articles and contacted authors
to identify additional relevant studies and information. When the same or similar patient cohort
was included in several publications, only the most recent or complete report was selected for
analysis. This search strategy was updated on January 14, 2016.
Study Selection
Studies were selected for the meta-analysis if they fulfilled the following entry criteria: (1) the
study of adult patients had a community-based or population-based, prospective cohort design; (2)
the exposure of interest was intake of dietary flavonoids (including: flavonols, flavones,
flavanones, flavan-3-ols, anthocyanidins, proanthocyanidins, and isoflavones); (3) the outcome of
interest was stroke, including all types of stroke (fatal, nonfatal, ischemic, and hemorrhagic); (4)
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reported quantitative estimates of the multivariate-adjusted relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence
interval (CI) for stroke incidence or mortality associated with flavonoids intake; and (5) longer
than 1 year of follow-up. Studies were excluded if (1) the study design was cross-sectional; or
case-control; (2) reported unadjusted or only age- or sex-adjusted RR; and (3) shorter than 1 year
of follow-up.
Data Abstraction
All data were independently abstracted in duplicate by 2 investigators (ML, and XZ).
Discrepancies were resolved by consensus. When necessary, the original authors were contacted
for supplementary information. The following data were extracted from each study: first author’s
last name, publication year, country where the study was performed, location, number of
participants, participants’ age, follow-up years, assessment of dietary data and stroke, number of
cases, adjusted covariates and study quality.
Assessment of study quality
The Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS) was used to assess the quality of studies.22
The quality of
cohort studies were evaluated in the following three major components: selection of the study
group (0-4 stars), quality of the adjustment for confounding (0-2 stars) and assessment of outcome
in the cohorts (0-3 stars). A higher score represents better methodological quality. The full score
was 9 stars. Studies were graded as the high-quality if they were awarded >8 stars.
Statistical Analysis
Relative risks (RRs) were used as the common measure of association between flavonoid intake
and stroke, and hazard ratios (HRs) were considered equivalent to RRs. Data analysis used
multivariate-adjusted outcome data. We converted these values in every study by using their
natural logarithms, and the SEs were calculated from these logarithmic numbers and their
corresponding 95% CIs. When data on total stroke was not available, we used data from ischemic
stroke, nonfatal stroke, or fatal stroke as an equivalent to total stroke.23
We combined these
estimates using a random-effects model, which takes into account both within-study and
between-study variabilities.24
In the dose-response analysis, the generalized least square for trend
estimation method described by Greenland and Longnecker25
and Orsini et al26
was used to
calculate study-specific slopes (linear trends) and 95% confidence intervals. The method requires
the distributions of cases and person years for exposure categories, and median/mean of flavonoid
intake level for each comparison group. We assigned the midpoint of the upper and lower
boundaries of each comparison group to determine mean flavonoid intake level if the median or
mean intake was not provided. If the lower or upper boundary for the lowest and highest category,
respectively, was not reported, we assumed that the boundary had the same amplitude as the
closest category.20
Additionally, we first created restricted cubic splines with 3 knots at fixed
percentiles 25%, 50%, and 75% of the distribution.27
A p value for nonlinearity was calculated by
testing the null hypothesis that the coefficient of the fractional polynomials component is equal to
zero. When data on total flavonoid intake included in this dose-response meta-analysis was not
available, we used data from flavonols, flavones, flavanones, flavan-3-ols, and isoflavones (in the
sequential order) as an equivalent to total flavonoid. Heterogeneity among studies was evaluated
using the chi-square test based on Cochran’s Q test and I2 statistic at p<0.10 level of
significance,24
which describes the percentage of variability in the effect estimates that is due to
heterogeneity rather than chance.28
We regard I2 of <40% as “heterogeneity that might not be
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important” and >75% as “considerable heterogeneity” based on the suggestion of Cochrane
Handbook for Systemic Review of Interventions.29
All available data was utilized in the primary
analysis. Subsequent subgroup analyses were conducted according to stroke outcomes
(fatal/nonfatal versus ischemic), follow-up duration (≤10 years versus >10 years), sex (male
versus female versus combined), Geographical area (United States versus Asian versus European),
history of stroke (yes versus no), and study quality (high [score>8] versus low [score ≤8]). To
explore possible explanations for heterogeneity and to test the robustness of the association, we
conducted meta-regression, sensitivity analyses and above mentioned stratified analysis. The
possibility of publication bias was evaluated using the Egger rank correlation test at p<0.10 level
of significance and visual inspection of a funnel plot.30,31
In the case of publication bias,
“nonparametric trim-and-fill” method was used to compute risk estimates corrected for this bias.32
All the statistical analyses were performed in STATA 12.0 (StataCorp, College Station, TX). p
values were 2-sided and p<0.05 was considered statistically significant.
Results
Literature Search
Figure 1 shows the results of literature research and selection. We initially identified 236 citations.
After exclusion of duplicate records and studies that did not fulfill our inclusion criteria, 28 studies
remained, and we further evaluated the full texts of these 28 publications. Of these, we excluded
17 studies for the following reasons: no stroke outcomes (n=8), duplicate reports (n=4) and
reviews (n=5). Finally, 11 studies met the inclusion criteria and were included in the
meta-analysis.8-18
Study Characteristics
The characteristics of the studies and of their participants are presented in Table 1 and
Supplemental tables 1 and 2. A total of 11 studies involving 356,627 participants and more than
5,154 stroke cases were included in the meta-analysis.8-18
Among 11 studies, 4 were conducted in
the United States,11,14,16,17
1 from an Asian country (Singapore),18
and 6 studies were from
European countries (Finland and the Netherlands).8-10,12,13,15
The number of participants ranged
from 755 in the study by Marniemi et al12
to 98,469 in the study by McCullough et al.17
4 studies
included both men and women,10,12,17,18
3 studies included only men,8,9,15
and 4 studies only
women.11,13,14,16
The follow-up duration ranged from 6.1 to 28 years,8,10
with a median of 14 years.
The dietary assessment of flavonoid intake varied across studies, in most of the studies, intake of
flavonoids was measured by food frequency questionnaires (FFQs) and dietary history interview.
In most of the studies, stroke was assessed by medical records or death certificates based on
ICD-8,9,10.33-35
All studies provided adjusted risk estimates (e.g., sex, body mass index, smoking,
education, et al), overall quality scores ranged for 7 to 9, and the median score was 8.
Flavonoids intake and Stroke Risk
The multivariable adjusted RRs of fatal or nonfatal stroke in relation to dietary flavonoids intake
from individual studies and the combined RR are presented in figure 2. For the 11 studies, only 1
showed that flavonoid intake was significantly associated with decreased risk of stroke.10
Overall,
participants with the highest dietary flavonoid intake, compared with the lowest, experienced a
significant decreased risk for development of stroke (combined RR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.82-0.97;
Figure 2) after adjustment for other risk factors. We saw no heterogeneity among studies (p =
0.774, I2
= 0%). Among 11 studies, 3 studies were eligible for the dose-response analysis of
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flavonoid intake and risk of stroke.9,14,16
Using a restricted cubic splines model, dose-response
analysis found a statistically nonsignificant inverse association with risk of stroke per 100-mg/day
increment of flavonoid intake (relative risk 0.91, 95% confidence interval 0.77 to 1.08, I2 = 0%, p
= 0.285; Figure 3 and 4). No heterogeneity was observed (p = 0.974).
Stratifying analysis
In most subgroups, dietary flavonoid intake was not associated with stroke. Stratifying by sex, the
associations between dietary flavonoid intake and risk of stroke were similar between males and
females (table 2). The pooled RR of stroke were 0.86 (95% CI: 0.76-0.98) from studies conducted
in the United States, 0.88 (95% CI: 0.77-1.00) in Europe, and 0.97 (95% CI: 0.81-1.16) in Asian
(table 2). Stratifying by duration, we observed the protective effect of dietary flavonoid intake in
longer than 10 years of follow-up studies. The associations were more evident in several strata of
study characteristics (table 2).
Sensitivity Analysis and Publication Bias
We tested the robustness of our results in sensitivity analysis, when a single study included in the
meta-analysis was deleted at a time, the results of meta-analysis remained largely unchanged,
indicating that the results of the present meta-analysis were stable (data not shown). Visual
inspection of the funnel plot identified asymmetry (Supplemental figure 1). There was no
statistical evidence of publication bias among studies for stroke risk by using Egger test (p =
0.238).
Meta Regression
In this meta-analysis, although no heterogeneity was observed among individual studies, a
multivariate regression was conducted to explore the potential sources of heterogeneity under
stroke. The results of regression suggested that stroke outcomes, follow-up duration, sex,
geographical area, history of stroke, and study quality were no significant sources of
heterogeneity.
Discussion
Our meta-analysis of 11 prospective studies indicates that dietary flavonoid intake may be
inversely associated with risk of stroke. In addition, dose-response analysis indicated that a
100-mg/day increment of flavonoids intake was associated with a 9% lower risk of stroke (RR
0.91, 95% CI 0.77 to 1.08). However, this association was not statistically significant.
Potential benefits of flavonoids
Flavonoids, a large class of polyphenols, are widely distributed in plants and are present in
considerable amounts in fruits, vegetables, tea and red wine. These bioactive polyphenols are
non-energy, non-nutrient secondary metabolites present in plants and cannot be synthesized by
humans.36
In recent decades, overwhelming evidence indicates that flavonoid intake is associated
with well-known risk-factors for CVD. There is also some evidence that flavonoids may have a
role in preventing the development of CVD (e.g., coronary heart disease, stroke, et al).37,38
In
addition, although there are many putative biological mechanisms underlying a possible
cardioprotective role for flavonoids,39
including anti-inflammatory,40
antioxidant,6 recovery of
endothelial function by some compounds,41
and reductions in platelet aggregation,42
and the effect
of individual compounds or interactions between flavonoids is still largely unknown, flavonol and
isoflavone intake may explain some of this beneficial effect.19,43
Although, the exact mechanism by which flavonoid intake may protect against the development of
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stroke is still ambiguous, a possible mechanism is the regulation of blood pressure, especially by
anthocyanins, due to an increase in endothelial-derived nitric oxide (NO).44
Moreover, mainly
attributed to antioxidant mechanisms, flavonoids reduced mitochondrial lipid peroxidation and
loss of mitochondrial transmembrane electric potential caused by oxidative stress induced by ADP
plus iron.45
A third mechanism is the protective action of flavonoids on the anti-inflammatory
responses in the brain, that may be attributable to raft disrupting and antioxidant effects.46
Because
the flavonoids are very diverse in their bioavailability and bioactivity, the rationale for assuming
that intakes of all flavonoid classes might have effects on stroke needs more consideration.
Results in relation to other studies
Over the past decades, despite extensive studies that investigated the role of flavonoid intake on
either cardiovascular diseases or cerebrovascular diseases, it remains unclear whether the
association between flavonoid intake and risk of stroke is causal. One study suggested that persons
with higher flavonoids intakes had lower risk from stroke,10
the others failed to find the
association.8,9
More, importantly, the possibility of reverse causality should be addressed. A
previous meta-analysis of flavonol intake and risk of stroke showed that flavonol intake was
inversely associated with stroke incidence.38
That meta-analysis included 6 prospective cohorts
studies from 3 different countries, 4 were conducted in Europe (3 in Finland and 1 in The
Netherlands) and 2 in the United States. The inverse associations between flavonol intake and
stroke were observed in two prospective cohort studies (Zutphen Elderly Study and Kuopio Study).
Significant inverse associations were found in the Finnish Mobile Clinic Study and Women’s
Health Study, this result was consistent with a detailed review by Wang et al,5 whereas no
associations were noted in the Iowa Women’s Health Study and Alpha-Tocopherol, Beta-Carotene
Cancer Prevention Study. The results for flavonols were consistent with our findings on flavonoids.
But the data from studies included in the previous meta-analysis were limited to articles published
before August 2009.38
Since then, 3 new studies on the relationship between flavonoids intake and
risk of stroke were published.16-18
To obtain a more comprehensive estimate of the putative
influence of the flavonoids on stroke, we conducted a meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies.
To our knowledge, this meta-analysis is the largest to reveal a potential relationship between
dietary flavonoid intake and risk of stroke. However, most studies assess dietary flavonoid intake
based on self-reported questionnaires using FFQs, and medical records were not always available
for stroke classification; the possibility that misclassification of flavonoid intake or stroke was
inevitable and likely to bias true association among individual studies.
Strengths and limitations
We have several important strengths compared with previous meta-analyses.19,38
The present
meta-analysis included 2 times more participants and 2 times more stroke cases. To our knowledge,
this is the largest meta-analysis on flavonoid intake and the risk of stroke. We also explored
possible sources of heterogeneity using subgroup analyses and the meta-regression method, all of
them were not significant. Moreover, the presence of a dose-response relationship further
strengthened the association of dietary flavonoid intake with risk of stroke. Therefore, the results
should be more reliable.
In interpreting the results, some limitations of this meta-analysis should be acknowledged. First,
one limitation of any meta-analysis of observational studies is that residual confounding or
confounding by unmeasured factors (such as intake of other nutrients) may have affected the
strength of the association between flavonoid intake and stroke risk. Additionally, all the studies
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used in this dose-response analysis did not include complete data on total flavonoid intake; the
flavonoid intake may have been underestimated in these original studies. Thus, these findings
should be treated with caution. Second, we cannot exclude the possibility of recall bias in the
dietary assessment based on the FFQs. However, the prospective study design and exclusion of
participants with chronic diseases at baseline should minimize such bias. Third, a noticeable
limitation of our study was the potential for bias due to inevitable measurement error and
misclassification, especially for individuals with lower consumption levels. We attempted to
reduce measurement error by adjusting for energy or fiber intake and using cumulatively averaged
intake levels. Fourth, we tried to study the main sources of flavonoids. But, we failed due to
insufficient data. Different sub-classes for flavonoid were used in the primary studies included in
this meta-analysis. Among 11 studies, 4 studies included the same sub-classes (including quercetin,
kaempferol, myricetin, luteolin, and apigenin),8,9,11,12
another 5 studies included the similar
sub-classes (including flavonols, flavones, flavanones, flavan-3-ols, and so on),10,14-17
and 3
studies included isoflavones,13,17,18
as summarized in supplemental table 2. Among 11 studies,
only 3 studies were eligible for the dose-response analysis, and the compounds of
flavonoid subclasses are different among these studies. Of these, 2 studies included
flavanones, 3 studies included flavones, 3 studies included flavonols, 2 studies included
flavan-3-ols, and 1 study included isoflavones. Due to the limited number of studies that met
dose-response analyses and the insufficient statistical power, we did not conduct dose-response
analysis separately on each class. Thus, we evaluated the effects of total flavonoid intake on stroke
risk rather than the wide-range of flavonoid sub-classes. On the one hand, in order to balance the
risk of a type I error (the true effect is zero but we reject the null) and a type II error (the true
effect is not zero but we fail to reject the null), we combined these estimates using a
random-effects model, which takes into account both within-study and between-study
variabilities.24
Thus, these results should be treated with caution. Finally, a possible limitation is
due to language bias. We attempted to minimize this bias by searching major electronic databases
with no language restriction. However, several articles published in non-English or unpublished
reports might not appear in international journal databases, and could be omitted by our
searches.47
Conclusions
In summary, results from this meta-analysis suggest that higher dietary flavonoid intake may
moderately lower the risk of stroke after adjustment of established cardiovascular risk factors.
Randomized controlled studies are needed to evaluate the effects of flavonoid intake on stroke
risk.
Contributors: ML and ZT conceived and designed the study. ML and WH searched the databases
and checked them according to the eligible criteria and exclusion criteria. ZT helped develop
search strategies. XZ and WH extracted quantitative data. XZ, and WH analyzed the data. ML
wrote the draft of the paper. All authors contributed to writing, reviewing, or revising the paper.
ZT is the guarantor.
Funding: This work was not funded by any foundation or program.
Competing interests: All authors have completed the ICMJE uniform disclosure form at
www.icmje.org/coi_disclosure.pdf (available on request from the corresponding author) and
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declare: no support from any organization for the submitted work; no financial relationships with
any organizations that might have an interest in the submitted work in the previous three years; no
other relationships or activities that could appear to have influenced the submitted work.
Ethical approval: Not required.
Data sharing: No additional data available.
Figures Information
Figure 1. Process of literature search and study selection.
(TIFF)
Figure 2. Random effects analysis of fully adjusted studies for highest versus lowest intake of
flavonoids and risk of stroke.
(TIFF)
Figure 3. Dose-response relationship between dietary flavonoids intake and stroke risk. The
solid line represents point estimates of the association between flavonoid intake and stroke
risk, and the dotted lines are 95% CIs. The horizontal line is the reference line.
(TIFF)
Figure 4. Forest plot of flavonoid and risk of stroke. 3 cohort studies were eligible for the
dose-response analysis of flavonoid intake and risk of stroke. Relative risk of less than 1.0
favours exposure to greater intake of flavonoid. CI, Confidence interval.
(TIFF)
Appendix figure information
Supplemental figure 1. Egger funnel plot for detection of publication bias for stroke risk.
(DOC)
Appendix table information
Supplemental table 1. Confounding factors and methods for adjustment.
(DOC)
Supplemental table 2. Flavonoid subclasses and compounds for each study.
(DOC)
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21. Stroup DF, Berlin JA, Morton SC, et al. Meta-analysis of observational studies in
epidemiology: a proposal for reporting. Meta-analysis Of Observational Studies in
Epidemiology (MOOSE) group. JAMA 2000;283:2008-12.
22. Stang A. Critical evaluation of the Newcastle-Ottawa scale for the assessment of the quality of
nonrandomized studies in meta-analyses. Eur J Epidemiol 2010;25:603-5.
23. Pan A, Sun Q, Okereke OI, et al. Depression and risk of stroke morbidity and mortality: a
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meta-analysis and systematic review. JAMA 2011;306:1241-9.
24. DerSimonian R, Laird N. Meta-analysis in clinical trials. Control Clin Trials 1986;7:177-88.
25. Greenland S, Longnecker MP. Methods for trend estimation from summarized dose-response
data, with applications to meta-analysis. Am J Epidemiol 1992;135:1301-9.
26. Orsini N, Li R, Wolk A, et al. Meta-analysis for linear and nonlinear dose-response relations:
examples, an evaluation of approximations, and software. Am J Epidemiol 2012;175:66-73.
27. Harrell FE Jr, Lee KL, Pollock BG. Regression models in clinical studies: determining
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28. Higgins JP, Thompson SG, Deeks JJ, et al. Measuring inconsistency in meta-analyses. BMJ
2003;327:557-60.
29. Higgins JPT, Green S. Cochrane Handbook for systematic Reviews of Interventions. Oxford,
UK: The Cochrane Collaboration; 2011:261-6.
30. Begg CB, Mazumdar M. Operating characteristics of a rank correlation test for publication
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36. Goya L, Martin MA, Sarria B, et al. Effect of Cocoa and Its Flavonoids on Biomarkers of
Inflammation: Studies of Cell Culture, Animals and Humans. Nutrients 2016;8. Doi:
10.3390/nu8040212.
37. Huxley RR, Neil HA. The relation between dietary flavonol intake and coronary heart disease
mortality: a meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies. Eur J Clin Nutr 2003;57:904-8.
38. Hollman PC, Geelen A, Kromhout D. Dietary flavonol intake may lower stroke risk in men
and women. J Nutr 2010;140:600-4.
39. Geleijnse JM, PCh H. Flavonoids and cardiovascular health: which compounds, what
mechanisms. Am J Clin Nutr 2008;88:12-3.
40. Landberg R, Sun Q, Rimm EB, et al. Selected dietary flavonoids are associated with markers
of inflammation and endothelial dysfunction in U.S. women. J Nutr 2011;141:618-25.
41. Boesten DM, von USN, den Hartog GJ, et al. Protective Pleiotropic Effect of Flavonoids on
NAD(+) Levels in Endothelial Cells Exposed to High Glucose. Oxid Med Cell Longev
2015;2015:894597.
42. Murphy KJ, Chronopoulos AK, Singh I, et al. Dietary flavanols and procyanidin oligomers
from cocoa (Theobroma cacao) inhibit platelet function. Am J Clin Nutr 2003;77:1466-73.
43. Sagara M, Kanda T, NJelekera M, et al. Effects of dietary intake of soy protein and
isoflavones on cardiovascular disease risk factors in high risk, middle-aged men in Scotland. J
Am Coll Nutr 2004;23:85-91.
44. Steffen Y, Gruber C, Schewe T, et al. Mono-O-methylated flavanols and other flavonoids as
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inhibitors of endothelial NADPH oxidase. Arch Biochem Biophys 2008;469:209-19.
45. Silva B, Oliveira PJ, Dias A, et al. Quercetin, kaempferol and biapigenin from Hypericum
perforatum are neuroprotective against excitotoxic insults. Neurotox Res 2008;13:265-79.
46. Perez-Vizcaino F, Duarte J. Flavonols and cardiovascular disease. Mol Aspects Med
2010;31:478-94.
47. Li M, Hou W, Zhang X, et al. Hyperuricemia and risk of stroke: a systematic review and
meta-analysis of prospective studies. Atherosclerosis 2014;232:265-70.
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Table 1. Characteristics of studies included in the meta-analysis
First author,
publication (yr) Country/Population
No. Participants
(% male)
Age range or
mean (yr)
Follow-Up
Duration (yr)
Assessment of
dietary data
Stroke
Ascertainment
No. of stroke
cases
Pre-stroke
Excluded
Study
Quality
Hirvonen et al.8
2000
Finland/European
26497 (100)
50-69
6.1
A self-administered,
modified diet history
method
Any type of stroke
based on ICD-8, 9
codes
Ischemic: 736
Yes
8
Arts et al.9 2001
Netherlands/European
806 (100)
65-84
15
A cross-check
dietary history
method
Any type of stroke
based on ICD-9
codes
Fatal: 47,
Nonfatal: 88
No
7
Knekt et al.10
2002
Finland/European
9131 (NA)
30-69
28
A dietary history
interview
Any type of stroke
based on ICD-8
codes
Fatal or
nonfatal: 681
No
8
Sesso et al.11
2003
United States
38445 (0)
53.9
6.9
A food-frequency
questionnaire
Any type of stroke
based on clinical
diagnosis
Fatal or
nonfatal: NA
Yes
9
Marniemi et al.12
2005
Finland/European
755 (47.8)
65-99
10
A dietary history
interview
Any type of stroke
based on ICD-9
codes
Fatal: 45,
Nonfatal: 25
Yes
8
van der Schouw et
al.13
2005
Netherlands/European
16165 (0)
49-70
6.3
A validated
food-frequency
questionnaire
Any type of stroke
based on ICD-9
codes
Fatal or
nonfatal: 147
Yes
9
Mink et al.14
2007
United States
34489 (0)
55-69
16
A food-frequency
questionnaire
Any type of stroke
based on ICD-9
codes
Fatal: 469
Yes
9
Mursu et al.15
2008
Finland/European
1950 (100)
42-60
15.2
An instructed 4d
food recording by
Any type of stroke
based on ICD-9, 10
Ischemic: 102
Yes
9
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household measures codes
Cassidy et al.16
2012
United States
69622 (0)
30-55
14
A semiquantitative
food-frequency
questionnaires
interview
Any type of stroke
based on medical
records, autopsy
reports, and death
certificates
Ischemic: 943
Yes
8
McCullough et
al.17
2012
United States
98469 (38.8)
70
7
A semiquantitative
food-frequency
questionnaires
interview
Any type of stroke
based on ICD-9, 10
codes
Fatal: 573
Yes
9
Talaei et al.18
2014
Singapore/Asian
60298 (44.5)
45-74
14.7
A semiquantitative
food-frequency
questionnaires
interview
Any type of stroke
based on ICD-9
codes
Fatal: 1298
No
8
Abbreviations: ICD: international classification of diseases; NA: not available.
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Table 2. Stratified analyses of flavonoids intake and stroke risk
Group No. of studies RR (95% CI) Heterogeneity test
P value of pooled effect χχχχ2 P value I
2, %
Overall studies
Fatal/nonfatal stroke 11 0.89 (0.82-0.97) 6.48 0.774 0 0.006
Ischemic stroke 3 0.93 (0.80-1.07) 1.03 0.609 0 0.301
Geographical area
United States 4 0.86 (0.76-0.98) 1.50 0.683 0 0.026
Asian 1 0.97 (0.81-1.16) 0 - - 0.740
European 6 0.88 (0.77-1.00) 3.81 0.577 0 0.051
History of stroke
Yes 3 0.89 (0.78-1.02) 2.10 0.351 4.6 0.105
No 8 0.89 (0.80-0.99) 4.38 0.735 0 0.027
Sex
Male 4 0.82 (0.64-1.06) 4.90 0.179 38.8 0.130
Female 5 0.92 (0.80-1.05) 2.39 0.664 0 0.216
Combined 3 0.86 (0.72-1.04) 2.97 0.227 32.6 0.114
Mean follow-up, years
≤10 5 0.88 (0.77-1.01) 3.78 0.437 0 0.067
>10 6 0.89 (0.81-0.99) 2.68 0.750 0 0.036
Quality score
High, score>8 5 0.85 (0.73-0.99) 2.26 0.688 0 0.038
Low, score≤8 6 0.91 (0.82-1.00) 3.73 0.589 0 0.048
Abbreviations: CI = confidence interval; RR = relative risk.
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Process of literature search and study selection.
152x101mm (300 x 300 DPI)
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Random effects analysis of fully adjusted studies for highest versus lowest intake of flavonoids and risk of stroke.
152x101mm (300 x 300 DPI)
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Dose-response relationship between dietary flavonoids intake and stroke risk. The solid line represents point
estimates of the association between flavonoid intake and stroke risk, and the dotted lines are 95% CIs. The
horizontal line is the reference line.
152x101mm (300 x 300 DPI)
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Forest plot of flavonoid and risk of stroke. 3 cohort studies were eligible for the dose-response analysis of flavonoid intake and risk of stroke. Relative risk of less than 1.0 favours exposure to greater intake of
flavonoid. CI, Confidence interval. 152x101mm (300 x 300 DPI)
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152x101mm (300 x 300 DPI)
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Supplemental table 1. Confounding factors and methods for adjustmentReference Adjusted covariates Total stroke Nonfatal stroke Fatal Stroke Ischemic Stroke Hemorrhagic
strokeHirvonen et al.8 2000 Age, BMI, SBP, DBP, height, cholesterol, diabetes, history
CHD, smoking, alcohol, supplementation group and education.equal toischemic strokeresults
0.98 (0.80-1.21)
Arts et al.9 2001Age, BMI, smoking, alcohol, physical activity, coffee, diet,energy, FA, prescribed diet, intakes of fish, coffee, cholesterol,fiber, fish, vit C, vit E and β-carotene
0.92(0.51-1.68)
Knekt et al.10 2002 Age, sex, geographic area, occupation, BMI, BP, cholesterol,diabetes, region, SE and smoking
0.79(0.64-0.98)
Sesso et al.11 2003 Age, exercise, aspirin, BMI, BP, postmenopausal hormone use,cholesterol, diabetes, history of CHD, smoking, alcohol, F﹠V,fiber, folate and vit E.
0.70(0.46-1.07)
Marniemi et al.12
2005Age, sex, smoking, functional capacity and weight adjustedenergy intake.
0.65(0.34-1.23)
van der Schouw etal.13 2005
Age, BMI, cholesterol, physical activity, diabetes,hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, HRT, OC, MS, smoking,alcohol, energy, F﹠A, fiber, protein, fruit, vegetable andmenopausal status.
1.05(0.64-1.70)
Mink et al.14 2007 Age, BMI, BP, diabetes, HRT, MS, education, smoking,activity, estrogen use, WHR and energy
equal to fatalstroke results
0.94 (0.69-1.29)
Mursu et al.15 2008 Age, examination years, BMI, SBP, HM, cholesterol, TAG,maximal oxygen uptake, smoking, history of CVD, diabetes,alcohol, energy-adjusted intake of folate and vit E.
equal toischemic strokeresults
0.71 (0.37-1.37)
Cassidy et al.16 2012 Age, physical activity, smoking, HRT, BMI, aspirin use, equal to 0.90 (0.73-1.11)
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diabetes, hypercholesterolemia, history of CHD, alcohol,menopausal status, energy, use of multivitamins and history ofhypertension
ischemic strokeresults
McCullough et al.17
2012Age, smoking, beer and liquor intake, history of hypertension,history of cholesterol, family history of MI, BMI, physicalactivity, energy intake, aspirin use, HRT, and sex
equal to fatalstroke results
0.83 (0.66-1.04)
Talaei et al.18 2014 Age, sex, dialect, year of interview, educational level, BMI,physical activity, smoking duration, alcohol, diabetes,hypertension, CHD, stroke, energy and fiber
equal to fatalstroke results
0.97 (0.81-1.16)
Abbreviations: BMI, body mass index; CVD, cardiovascular disease; CHD, coronary heart disease; BP, blood pressure; SBP: systolic blood pressures; DBP: diastolic bloodpressures; vit C: vitamin C; vit E: vitamin E; FA: fatty acids; F﹠V: fruit and vegetable intake; MS: menopausal status; HRT: hormonal replacement therapy; OC: oralcontraceptives; WHR: waist-to-hip ratio; HM: hypertension medication; MI: myocardial infarction.
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Supplemental table 2. Flavonoid subclasses and compounds for each study.Reference Flavonoid subclassesHirvonen et al.8 2000 Quercetin, kaempherol, myricetin, luteolin, and apigenin..Arts et al.9 2001 Quercetin, kaempferol, myricetin, luteolin, and apigenin..Knekt et al.10 2002 4 flavonols (kaempferol, quercetin, myricetin, and
isorhamnetin), 2 flavones (apigenin and luteolin), and 3flavanones (hesperetin, naringenin, and eriodictyol).
Sesso et al.11 2003 Quercetin, kaempferol, myricetin, luteolin, and apigenin..Marniemi et al.12 2005 Quercetin, kaempferol, myricetin, luteolin, and apigenin..van der Schouw et al.13
2005Daidzein, Genistein, Formononetin, Biochanin A.
Mink et al.14 2007 4 flavonols (kaempferol, quercetin, myricetin, andisorhamnetin), 2 flavones (apigenin and luteolin), 3 flavanones(hesperetin, naringenin, and eriodictyol), flavan-3-ols,anthocyanidins, isoflavones, proanthocyanidins.
Mursu et al.15 2008 Flavonols, flavones, flavanones, flavan-3-ols andanthocyanidins.
Cassidy et al.16 2012 4 flavonols (kaempferol, quercetin, myricetin, andisorhamnetin), 2 flavones (apigenin and luteolin), 6anthocyanins (cyaniding, delphinindin, malvidin, pelargonidin,petunidin, peonidin), flavan-3-ols (catechins, epicatechins), and3 flavanones (hesperetin, naringenin, and eriodictyol).
McCullough et al.17 2012 Anthocyanidins, flavan-3-ols, flavanones, flavones, flavonols,proanthocyanidins, isoflavones.
Talaei et al.18 2014 Genistein, daidzein, and glycitein.
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MOOSE Checklist
Dietary flavonoid intake and the risk of stroke: A dose-response
meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies
Min Li master student1, Xiaowei Zhang master student
1, Wenshang Hou master
student1, Zhenyu Tang associate professor
1
1Department of Neurology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University,
Nanchang 330006, Jiangxi Province, People’s Republic of China
Correspondence to: Zhenyu Tang, Department of Neurology, The Second Affiliated
Hospital of Nanchang University, No. 1, Minde Road, Nanchang, Jiangxi 330006,
People’s Republic of China
Email: [email protected]
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Criteria Brief description of how the criteria were handled in
the meta-analysis
Reporting of background should
include
√ Problem definition Stroke is the second most common cause of death, as well
as the fourth leading cause of lost productivity and the
second highest cause of disability worldwide. The
prevention of stroke is thus clearly an important public
health priority. In recent decades, concern has mounted
regarding the premature incidence and mortality
associated with stroke, with growing interest in altering
risk factors and reversing this global epidemic. Among
the known risk factors for stroke, dietary factors,
especially dietary flavonoid intake, have aroused
particular attention. Clinical studies have shown that
intakes of flavonoids reduce cardiovascular disease
(CVD) risk. Additionally, experimental studies indicated
that flavonoids have been shown to have both antioxidant
and antithrombotic properties.
√ Hypothesis statement Flavonoid intake decreases risk of stroke.
√ Description of study outcomes Stroke.
√ Type of exposure or
intervention used
Flavonoids
√ Type of study designs used We included (1) original studies (eg, not review articles,
meeting abstracts, editorials, or commentaries); (2)
prospective cohort design (eg, not cross sectional design,
case-control design).
√ Study population We placed no restriction.
Reporting of search strategy
should include
√ Qualifications of searchers The credentials of the two investigators WH and ML are
indicated in the author list.
√ Search strategy, including time
period included in the
synthesis and keywords
PubMed from 1965 –January 2016
Embase from 1974 –January 2016
Cochrane library from 1990- January 2016
Keywords: (“flavonoids,” “polyphenols,” “phenolics,”
“flavonols,” “flavones,” “quercetin,” “kaempferol,”
“myricetin,” “isorhamnetin,” “apigenin,” “luteolin,”
“proanthocyanidins,” “anthocyanins,” “anthocyanidins,”
“flavan-3-ols,” “isoflavones,” and “stroke,”
“cerebrovascular disease,” “cerebrovascular disorders,”
“cerebral infarct,” “ischemic stroke,” “intracranial
hemorrhage,” “intracranial artery disease,”
“cardiovascular disease,” “myocardial ischemia,”
“myocardial infarct,” “ischemic heart disease,” “coronary
heart disease,” and “longitudinal studies,” “cohort
studies,” “prospective studies,” “follow-up studies.”).
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√ Databases and registries
searched
PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane library
√ Search software used, name
and version, including special
features
We did not employ a search software. EndNote was used
to merge retrieved citations and eliminate duplications
√ Use of hand searching We hand-searched bibliographies of retrieved papers for
additional references,
√ List of citations located and
those excluded, including
justifications
Details of the literature search process are outlined in the
process of literature search and study selection. The
citation list is available upon request
√ Method of addressing articles
published in languages other
than English
We placed no restrictions on language; local scientists
fluent in the original language of the article were
contacted for translation
√ Method of handling abstracts
and unpublished studies
We had contacted a few authors for unpublished studies
on the association.
√ Description of any contact with
authors
We contacted authors who had conducted multivariate
analysis with coronary heart disease as a covariate, but
the exposure of interest was not intake of dietary
flavonoids.
Reporting of methods should
include
√ Description of relevance or
appropriateness of studies
assembled for assessing the
hypothesis to be tested
Detailed inclusion and exclusion criteria were described
in the methods section.
√ Rationale for the selection and
coding of data
Data extracted from each of the studies were relevant to
the population characteristics, study design, exposure,
outcome, and possible effect modifiers of the association.
√ Assessment of confounding Restricted the analysis to age- or sex-adjusted estimates
only. Conducted sensitivity analyses by eliminating
studies that had not adjusted for possible confounders.
√ Assessment of study quality,
including blinding of quality
assessors; stratification or
regression on possible
predictors of study results
The Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS) was used to assess
the quality of studies. The quality of cohort studies were
evaluated in the following three major components:
selection of the study group (0-4 stars), quality of the
adjustment for confounding (0-2 stars) and assessment of
outcome in the cohorts (0-3 stars). A higher score
represents better methodological quality. The full score
was 9 stars. Studies were graded as the high-quality if
they met >8 awarded stars.
√ Assessment of heterogeneity Heterogeneity of the studies were explored within two
types of study designs using Cochrane’s Q test of
heterogeneity and I2 statistic that provides the relative
amount of variance of the summary effect due to the
between-study heterogeneity.
√ Description of statistical
methods in sufficient detail to
Description of methods of meta-analyses, sensitivity
analyses, subgroup analyses, meta regression and
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be replicated assessment of publication bias are detailed in the
methods.
√ Provision of appropriate tables
and graphics
We included 1 flow chart, several summary tables and
figures.
Reporting of results should
include
√ Graph summarizing individual
study estimates and overall
estimate
Figure 2, 3 and 4
√ Table giving descriptive
information for each study
included
Table 1 and Supplemental tables 1 and 2
√ Results of sensitivity testing Table 2
√ Indication of statistical
uncertainty of findings
95% confidence intervals were presented with all
summary estimates, I2 values and results of sensitivity
analyses
Reporting of discussion should
include
√ Quantitative assessment of bias Subgroup analyses indicate heterogeneity in strengths of
the association due to most common biases in cohort
studies.
√ Justification for exclusion We excluded studies that had not adjusted for or were
standardized by age or sex, a potential confounder, and
used different exposure or outcome assessment for the
comparison groups.
√ Assessment of quality of
included studies
We discussed the results of the subgroup analyses, and
potential reasons for the observed heterogeneity.
Reporting of conclusions should
include
√ Consideration of alternative
explanations for observed
results
We discussed that potential unmeasured confounders such
as other chronic diseases may have caused residual
confounding, but the measured factors that are correlated
with such confounders would have mitigated the bias.
We noted that the variations in the strengths of
association may be due to true population differences, or
to differences in quality of studies.
√ Generalization of the
conclusions
Our meta-analysis suggests that dietary flavonoid intake
may be inversely associated with risk of stroke. In
addition, dose-response analysis found a statistically
nonsignificant inverse association, with a relative risk of
0.91 (95% confidence intervals, 0.77-1.08) for each 100-
mg/day increment of flavonoid intake.
√ Guidelines for future research We recommend future preferably randomized controlled
studies should explore what kind of flavonoids can reduce
the risk of stroke.
√ Disclosure of funding source No separate funding was necessary for the undertaking of
this systematic review.
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pen: first published as 10.1136/bmjopen-2015-008680 on 8 June 2016. D
ownloaded from