bmkg drought assessment over indonesia related to el nino ...bmkg drought assessment over indonesia...

BMKG

Drought assessment over Indonesia related to El Nino and SSTA Indonesia

Erwin MakmurIndonesia Agency of Meteorological Climatological and Geophysical Agency (BMKG)[email protected]

Lincoln, Nebraska, December, 8-11 2009

Inter-Regional Workshop on Indices and Early Warning Systems for Drought

BMKGOutline

Indonesia Climate Characteristic Drought Assessment related to El Nino

and SSTA over Indonesia Drought Impact Summary

BMKG

EL NINO / LA NINA

DIPOLE MODE

A F R I C

A

A F R I C

A

A S I A

A S I A Ags -Sep Okt - Nov

Ags -Sep Okt - Nov

Indonesian Monsoon

1

2

3

4

Indonesia SST

1

2

3

4

1

2

3

4

BMKG

INDONESIA RAINFALL DRIVING FORCE



BMKG

The General Rainfall Types in Indonesia



BMKG

ELNINO AND INDONESIA SSTA IMPACT FOR SEASON

TEN DAYS NORMAL RAINFALL FOR BLITAR

0

50

100

150

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36

TEN DAYS

CUMULA

TIVE

RAIN

FALL

(mm



BMKG

ELNINO AND INDONESIA SSTA IMPACT FOR SEASON

TEN DAYS NORMAL RAINFALL FOR BLITAR

0

50

100

150

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36

TEN DAYS

CUMULA

TIVE

RAIN

FALL

(mm

Normal Dry Season Period



BMKGRelation between Elnino and the Onset of Rainy Season

Blitar

y = 2.0554x + 31.608R2 = 0.2985

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

-2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5

Elnino34 Index Agustus

Ons

et o

f Rai

ny S

easo

n (te

n da

ys )

Relation between Indonesia SSTA and the Onset of Rainy Season Blitar

y = -5.6838x + 31.836R2 = 0.3147

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

-0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

Indonesia SSTA Agustus

Aw

al M

usim

Huj

an (d

asar

ian

ke)

Relation between Elnino and Rainy Season Length Blitar

y = -3.2823x + 18.368R2 = 0.2987

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

-2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5

Indeks Elnino34 bulan Agustus

Panj

ang

Mus

im H

ujan

(das

aria

n)

Relation between Indonesia SSTA and Rainy Season Length Blitar

y = 9.4369x + 17.994R2 = 0.34040

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

-0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

Anomali SST Indonesia bulan Agustus

Panj

ang

Mus

im H

ujan

(d

asar

ian)



BMKG

Impact of Elnino and Indonesia SSTA for Onset of Rainy Season in Blitar

Early Late

Elnino3,4 Index

Normal



BMKG

Onset and Period Length Rainy Season Simulation using ENSO and SSTA Indonesia



BMKGMaps of Seasonal Forecast Areas (SFA)

And Non SFA



BMKGThe Impact of the ENSO to Season

A. The ENSO 1997 Relation with Average Early Dry Season



BMKGB. The ENSO 1997 Relation with Average Early Wet Season



BMKGC. The ENSO 1997 Relation with Average Rainfall of Dry Season



BMKGD. The ENSO 1997 Relation with Average Dry Season Length



BMKG

Season Onset(Percentage areas)

Elninoyears

2154252008

5624204417392007

801554015452006

5025251720632005

702461522642004

5526191420662003

662591522632002

4132272725492001

3530354920312000

3026444024361999

2116635518271998

76204918731997

3126422227511996

3633314027321995

722271928531994

6917132221571993

4023373223461992

702281923581991

6525102826461990

4336213633321989

3136341732511988

5336111331561987

3339282437381986

3846172628461985

3930313929321984

4227304127321983

682831435511982

LateSameEarlyLateSameEarly

Rainy SeasonDry Season

Year



BMKG

• MONTHLY FORECAST : 1. Total rainfall forecast 2. Total rainfall respective to normal

Monthly forecast is issued and update every early month for at least 3 months ahead .

• SEASONAL FORECAST : 1. The Onset of Dry / Wet Season.2. Total rainfall and respective to normal of total rainfall

during the season.

The Dry Season forecast is released every early of March and Wet season every early of September.

MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE FORECAST USED AT BMKG - INDONESIA

KIND OF FORECAST :



BMKG Drought Indices Percent of Normal (Operationally) > 115 % Above Normal 85 – 115 % Normal < 85% Below Normal

Palmer Drought Severity Index (Research) Normalized Multi-band Drought Index (other

Institutional)



BMKG

Total Rainfall Forecast for December 2009

Low

Medium

High

Very High Updated : November 2009

Legenda

RAINFALL MONTHLY FORECAST



BMKG

Below Normal

Normal

Above Normal Updated : November 2009

Total Rainfall Prediction respective to normal December 2009

RAINFALL MONTHLY FORECAST



BMKG

Forecast of Onset Rainy Season

Forecast of Rainy Season Respective to Normal

SEASONAL FORECAST



BMKGDrought Impacts

Water Management Agriculture Energy



BMKG

Water Management



BMKG

Agriculture



BMKG

Energy



BMKG Summary Generally, dry season and rainy season

variability over Indonesia caused by global phenomena such us El Nino and SSTA Indonesia

The Forecasting of El Nino and SSTA Indonesia important to make policy for water management



BMKG

bmkg drought assessment over indonesia related to el nino ...bmkg drought assessment over indonesia...

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