bmkg operation and service - cma.gov.cn · siklon tropis t c w c - jakarta produknwp (data grib)...
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I. BMKG Impact Based Forecasting
Background
Accurate and timely hydromet warning ≠ Safety of life
Prevent economic disruption
Hazards Affect People Actions
vulnerability of infrastructurebehaviour of people
Hydromet warning
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WMO Guidelines on Multi-hazard Impact-based Forecast and Warning Services WMO No. 1150
Weather, Impact-based and Impact Forecast and Warnings
Paradigm 1 Only atmospheric variables and how they are expected
to change.Forecasting weather-based
hazards only.
“Severe thunderstorms are expected today with wind gusts exceeding 60
mph.”
Weather forecast & warningHazard only
Paradigm 3 Provide detailed information down to the
individual, activity or community level.
The purview of partnering agencies rather than the role
of the NMHS itself
“Extensive traffic delays in Kensington may occur due
to the risk of large trees downing power lines and blocking roads as a result of severe thunderstorms”
Impact forecasts and warnings
Hazard, vulnerability and exposure
Paradigm 2
Express the expected impacts as a result of the
expected weather.
“Severe thunderstorms with gusts over 60 mph will result in damage to trees and power lines.”
Impact-based forecasts and warnings
Hazard and vulnerability only
WMO Guidelines on Multi-hazard Impact-based Forecast and Warning Services WMO No. 1150
The evolution from general weather forecasts to impact warnings
Evolving warning paradigm(heavy rain event as example)
Factors incorporated
General forecast
A cold, windy, wet day tomorrow with spells of very heavy rain expected in the afternoon and evening.
Hazard
Impact-based
warning
Rainfall accumulations of 20 mm to 30 mm expected tomorrow between 1400 and midnight, resulting in possible road closures due to flooding across the south-east.
Hazard Vulnerability
Impact warning
Expect journey times on the A111 likely to be lengthened by an hour because of significant traffic disruption in the south-east tomorrow afternoon due to localized flooding which is expected to follow a heavy rain event.
Hazard Vulnerability
Exposure
WMO Guidelines on Multi-hazard Impact-based Forecast and Warning Services WMO No. 1150
heavy rain
Rainfall accumulations
road closures due to flooding
journey times lengthened significant traffic disruption
localized flooding heavy rain event
Fire Weather Index (FWI)
Forecast Data (WRF)
Observation Data (H-1)
Initial condition
Fine Fuel Moisture Code (FFMC) & Fire Weather Index (FWI)
TemperatureRelative Humidity
Wind Speed &DirectionRain rate
TemperatureRelative Humidity
Wind Speed &DirectionRain rate
II. BMKG in supporting Disaster Risk Management
Upper ground wetness level
Fine Fuel Moisture Code (FFMC)
FIRE DANGER RATING SYSTEM
Hotspot InformationData Input: Modis (Terra & Aqua Satellite)
ü Hotspot number estimateü Hotspot location estimate
http://satelit.bmkg.go.id/satelit/modis/hotspot/
FOREST FIRE SMOKE TRAJECTORYFOR WEST KALIMANTAN
(25-27 FEBRUARY 2014, 01.00 LT)
Note:Forest fire smoke height:
= 10 m (trees)= 1 m (bush)
Hotspot Location:1. Melawah2. Sungaipinyuh3. Toba4. Sungaikakap5. Rasaujaya
At the aforementioned level:Most of air mass at the forest fire smoke trajectory tracked to south and southeast.
Distribution of brownish smoke comes from fires
Volcanic ash from Rinjani eruption November 2015
Smoke and Volcanic Ash Monitoring
Area of Responsibility Area of Monitoring
III. BMKG Tropical Cyclone Warning Operational
JAKARTA TCWC AREA OF MONITORING AND RESPONSIBILITY
Jakarta tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Cyclone Name Life Duration
Maximum IntensityMax Wind
Min Pressure Category
DURGA 22 - 24 April 2008 60 984 2
ANGGREK 29 Sept - 04 Nov 2010 80 954 3
BAKUNG 11 – 13 Dec 2014 55 998 2
Since 2007 there are 3 cyclone formed in Jakarta TCWC Area of Responsibility:
No. Product Name Format Frequency of issuance
Languange Remarks
1. Extreme weather warning Text 6 hourly English & Indonesia
2. TV Crawler messages Text Indonesia3. High seas warning Text 6 hourly English &
IndonesiaInternational exchange
4. Coastal Zone Warning Text 6 hourly English & Indonesia
5. TC Technical Bulletin Text 6 hourly English & Indonesia
6. TC P u b l i c I n fo r m a t i o n Bulletin
Text 6 hourly Indonesia
7. TC Outlook Text Daily English & Indonesia
8. TC Aviation Advisory Text 6 hourly English9. CREX Text 6 hourly English
10. TC Track & Impact map Graphical 6 hourly English & Indonesia
11. Extreme Weather map Graphical English & Indonesia
Products
BMKG for better forecast
BMKG developing:• Service delivery• Forecast verification study• NWP development • Capacity building
PEMDA
MEDIA MASSA
INSTITUTION INTERFACE
PRESIDEN RI
CYCLONE MONITORING
SIKLON TROPIS
T C W C - JAKARTA
PRODUKNWP (Data Grib)
TRANSMET
INTEGRATOR MEWS CLIENT
INFO MARITIM
- GEL. TINGGI
- SIKLON TROPIS WARNING
1
AWOSAWS
SATELIT (8)
-RADAR (22)
AWS/ARG (120)
1
2 3
4 5
6
SATELIT
RADAR
BNPB
INFO PENERBANGAN
- SIGMET
STAMAR
STAMET PENERBANGAN
ADPEL
USER PENERBANGAN
REGIONAL CENRE
INFO METEOROLOGI PUBLIK
- HUJAN LEBAT
- POTENSI BANJIR
- ANGIN KENCANG
- GELOMBANG TINGGI
- INFO BADAI DAN SIKLON
GUBERNUR BNPB
DAERAH
MEDIA
MASSA
INSTITUTION
INTERFACE
KETERANGANT C W C – TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTERMEWS – METEOROLOGICAL EARLY WARNING CENTER
METEO FRANCE
ARPEGE MODEL
BOM-AUSTRALIA
TXLAPS MODEL
67
7
4
5
7
71
CMSS
HASIL OBSERVASI
INFO METEOROLOGI PUBLIK - HUJAN LEBAT - POTENSI BANJIR - ANGIN KENCANG - GELOMBANG TINGGI - INFO BADAI DAN SIKLON
END TO END SYSTEM OF MEWS
Phone Services
NWP DATA INPUT FROM VARIOUS MODEL
(ARPEGE, TXLAPS, ECMWF, UK, US, JMA)
SYNOPTIC OBSERVATION
DATA INPUTFaximile
Website
Satellite Data Input
Radar Data Input
INTERNAL WEB SERVER
DENPASAR TCWC (BACKUP SYSTEM)
1.
2.
FORECASTER WORKSTATIONS
MEDIA DISPLAY
RADAR DISPLAY
3.
5.
VIDEO EDITING
TV Station
BMG STATIONS
JAKARTA TCWC OPERATIONAL DESIGN 6.
7.
CMSS LINK
APPLICATION SERVER
DATABASE SERVER
4.