bnef 2011 solar leadership forum the results book

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  • 8/2/2019 BNEF 2011 Solar Leadership Forum the Results Book

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    Ladship Fu

    SOLAR///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

    suLts k 2011

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    TABLE OF CONTENTS

    PARTNERS & SPONSORS 03NOTE FROM THE FORUM CHAIR 07FOREWORD FROM THE FORUM HOST 09COMMUNIQU TO GOVERNMENTS AND INVESTORS 11THE VIEW FROM THE INDUSTRY 13AREVA SOLAR: FULFILLING THE PROMISE OF CONCENTRATING SOLAR POWER 29ERNST&YOUNG: PERSPECTIVE ON RENEWABLE ENERGY INVESTMENT 30PARTICIPANTS 31ABOUT US 36

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    02 // 03 BLOOMBERG NEW ENERGY FINANCE

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    PARTNERS &SPONSORS///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

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    04 // 05 BLOOMBERG NEW ENERGY FINANCE

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    WITH SPECIAL THANkS TOOUR PARTNERS AND SPONSORS

    FORUM PARTNERS

    FORUM SPONSORS

    //////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

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    06 // 07 BLOOMBERG NEW ENERGY FINANCE

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    loomberg New nergy Fnnce convene 2011 solr Leer Form Febrry2-3 n nny N, Clforn. a cro-econ of enor execve ene eForm, nclng nveor, mnfcrer,n er of olr energy from abdb, Cn, twn, Jn, sngore,Germny, Frnce, Norwy, n e u.s.

    te Form rove rre oornefor enee normlly conme wor-erm roblem o n bolong erm roec n olon. Wewere ble o reec on e ecnologcl,

    nncl n olcy e m be ree n overcomef we re o bene from olr energy gre rome.

    i beleve olr energy wll become reomnn e worlcome o beer nern e r n co oce wor exng fol fel energy yem. te conne reconn olr co, n e conne re n e r of convenonlenergy, renforce or belef olr energy m ve e e bg energy ble, e ooner e beer.

    Normn perlne, CrmnCef Conen fcerloomberg Lp

    NOTE FROM THE FORUM CHAIR//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

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    08 // 09 BLOOMBERG NEW ENERGY FINANCE

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    te solr Leer Form w efor n e loomberg New nergyFnnce Leer Form ere ofnvon-only, execve level n n oexmne renewble energy ecor eymomen n er grow n mron.te solr Leer Form convene 50nry og leer from oovolcn olr erml elecrc ecnology,merl cence, venre cl n

    rve eqy, rojec evelomen, n le. tog leerjone from amerc, roe, n a; 60% of em wereCef-level execve wn er orgnzon.

    te olr nry nergong emc f from ecorene by ecnology evelomen n eloymen, no mrng n exnng r of e worl energy ly. W 40% comon nnl grow re of new bl nce e1970, olr no lowng own; w 140% grow r n2010. Wle e ecnology ecreng n co cen by cen,governmen ron e worl re enng bllon fer bllonof ollr n olr be. i very ry of grow rove e nry gree cllenge. Wen mre recree by olcy mecnm n ne rog bove-

    mre energy ymen, ey ve roven rone o exlovegrow well o economy-rven mloon. Wenecnology eveloer cn ern 30% mrgn on pV nel wleer eble conrc-mnfcrer eer re e w5%, comreon, bon - or conolon - wll becomenevble.

    a e olr nry conne o grow, wll fce worl ofecon-orer effec beyon e grow concern of oy.solr 50GW or 100GW er yer wll force e nry ore e rwbc of nermency n e bene ofcble e lo generon; o omze e blnce ofyem, n no j pV mole; n o coner olr no nce orce of energy generon, b bqo orce ofower n eveloe n evelong conre.

    y egn, e solr Leer Form w n execve

    gerng. te nqe erecve of o mny gly-lceeconmer n e ecor, gere for common roe,llowe C n nly o exmne olr emergen en oorne - oe of oy, n oe of comng yern ece. in blng or el oo, or mbon no only e olr ecor leer, b leng olcymer,nncer, n corore mnger wll re or nng gnce o e nry conne o grow n mre.

    Nnel llrLe anly, Nor amercn solrloomberg New nergy Fnnce

    FOREWORD//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

    WELCOME TO THIS SPECIAL PUBLICATION DOCUMENTING THE FIRST SOLAR LEADERSHIPFORUM, HELD AT THE CARNEROS INN IN NAPA, CALIFORNIA 2-3 FEBRUARY 2011.

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    10 // 11 BLOOMBERG NEW ENERGY FINANCE

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    COMMUNIQU TOGOVERNMENTS AND INVESTORS//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

    te ebe n con of or N gerng nrex rncle for olr energy ecnolog, nncer, nolcymer, n r of e e bg energy ble:

    1. STABILITY, NOT GENEROSITY, IS PARAMOUNT FORSUPPORT POLICIESin mo mre, olr energy ll more coly n voeower rce from e gr, n erefore ex crere of or mecnm c fee-n rff, x

    ncenve, or rec grn. solr mre re born rogolcy; ey rve rog olcy; n, ey e rog olcy.i n nforne r of olcy-rven mre oyrc rern become omorrow rerocve rff c. Wco connng o fll, Form rcn gree olcy bly, no generoy, wc now rmon for olrmre o conne o grow n rove fcen rernceo nveor n le olr energy wll be rob energyorce.

    2. TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION MUST CONTINUEin orer o conne mrovng comevene, oovolcn olr erml elecrcy generon m conne o eenew merl, rocee, n ecnqe o ennce oy

    roc. W ll renewble energy ecnologe on er ownco crve, olr cnno con mly on vncemen gven. tecnology rover n olcymer m bo eennovon merve n fnmenl o e ecor elf.

    3. TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION WILL CONTINUEa nerly every Form og leer e, ecnologclnnovon rcclly bre no e olr nry. in ynmc,comeve mre were conrc cn be ece on frconof ercen fference, comne ve evoe enre reercem o wrngng o every co e evce level, no merow mll. a e rojec level, nry leer wll reconen rgor n crevy n nllon n negron. ifere enny er W o be ve or ve, n e wor ofone og leer, ere em of exer lrey worng oo o.

    4. NO ONE SOLAR TECHNOLOGY HAS YET EMERGEDTO DOMINATEsolr no mre, er e, b rer mny mre nno ecnology, b mny ecnologe, ec w eccrbe for ecc lcon. No one ecnology emerge o omne n eer pV or olr erml elecrcycro lcon, n none my ever o o. if e olr mreoble n ze o 30GW er nnm, nfl of ecnologemy rove wnner on co b. if e ecor grow o 100GWer yer, owever, even nce lcon ecnologe my

    ve mre wor everl ggw er yer.

    5. THE SOLAR SECTOR MUST ACkNOWLEDGETHE CHALLENGES POSED BY INTERMITTENCY INENERGY GENERATION, AND WILL BENEFIT FROMHYBRIDIzATION FOR DISPATACHABILITY ANDCONTINUED PURSUIT OF COMPETITIVE ENERGYSTORAGEpoovolc energy remn n nermen reorce, by nre rone o qc rmng n own, n ron eo envronmenl conon. in orer for olr comee no j

    orce of energy, b orce of ower, eveloern ecnology rover m cnowlege e cllenge ofnermency, n wor o mge . For olr erml emrbne ecnologe, moo c n neren vre nerformnce, n eveloer cn convey vre n bnon n negoon w gr oeror n le. solr/nrl g ybrzon ner-erm, co-effecve oonfor olr erml elecrcy conne o re co-effecve, long-erm orge oon, n olr gmenonof exng ower ln offer low-co, cble olon.For pV, orge olon n energy mngemen wll becomeeenl.

    6. STATIC BUSINESS MODELS WILL NOT DOMINATE A

    DYNAMIC MARkETNo c roc cn omne ynmc mre. rercn wll nee o remn nmble n ece o cnge,n erenly foce on enfyng new oorne noenl ron. sly cn mngemen wll remneenl for ccefl enerre. solr wll rove greern greer re of e globl energy mx, b wll only o orog nnovon, econ, n eren lcon ofecnology, olcy, n nnce.

    Nathaniel BullardLe anly, Nor amercn solrloomberg New nergy Fnnce

    Bill GalloCaVa solr

    Gil ForerGlobl Leer, Globl Clenec Cenerrn & Yong LLp

    Jenny ChaseGlobl he, solr inry anlyloomberg New nergy Fnnce

    THE SOLAR INDUSTRY IS IN A STATE OF SEEMINGLY PERPETUAL GROWTH AND MATURATION. YET FOR ALLITS GROWTH AND PROVEN COST REDUCTIONS, SOLAR IS STILL WAITING FOR ITS SEAT AT THE BIG ENERGYTABLE, IN THE WORDS OF ONE SOLAR LEADERSHIP FORUM DELEGATE.

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    12 // 13 BLOOMBERG NEW ENERGY FINANCE

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    THE VIEWFROM THEINDUSTRY///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

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    14 // 15 BLOOMBERG NEW ENERGY FINANCE

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    POLICY: CHEAPER, SIMPLER, LONGER-TERMte olr nry orclly been romoe for oclbene n rbe, c e creon of green job n

    mc on globl clme cnge. a e nry mre, wllnee cr e bg energy ble; e nry m reenelf n be ree n energy conce.

    THE VIEW FROM THE INDUSTRY//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

    sorce: loomberg New nergy Fnnce, ro

    5.6%

    7.4%

    3.0%

    1.9%

    0.8%

    0.5%

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    Germany CzechRepublic

    Spain Italy Ontario France

    Electricity price PV Fee

    sorce: loomberg New nergy Fnnce, nro nergy or, ro,Cn sc. Noe: Gdp for 2010 eme by ro. nroclclon ng 2009 Gdp. ame pV nllon bl before e en of2010 n conmon from 2009 ncree by 2% . sze of bbble rereencmlve pV ccy e en of 2010.

    Ontario

    France

    Italy

    Spain

    Germany

    Czech Republic

    0.0%

    0.1%

    0.2%

    0.3%

    0.4%

    0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0%

    5GW

    in e energy nry, e vle of olr energy generon e rer rbrrly by ncenve regme, rer n e mre.a one nel one o, relve newcomer o e

    energy gme, e olr nry e new on e bloc,w very vble be more ceble o crnyn enrence or for fol fel. t ow no only n

    Fgre 1: sre of pV fee on oeol elecrcy rce 2011 eme Fgre 2: annl ne co of rff re of Gdp, ver pVelecrcy rocon re of conmon

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    POLICY: CHEAPER, SIMPLER, LONGER-TERM

    For og leer exmne e role of ecnologyevelomen n rvng oovolc co lower, n efcenceger. ne execve oene remr w to ge o eon were ecnology cn cnge e worl, yo nee lo of cl n lo of me, eme wc w ecoe nelbore on rogo e eon. Cryllne lconoovolc mole ve lrey fory yer of me nen of bllon n cl, b one nel noe ny lcewere we cn ve off enny er W of mole co,ere em worng o force mrovemen, n eemrovemen re connoly reece n e exerence crve.

    Cryllne pV bene from recble forwr co crve,n e room w nerly nnmo n execng verge

    mole rce n e $0.60-1.00/W rnge n 2015, fromoy $1.80. a e me me, cryllne lcon pV molemnfcrng rocee re fr from comleely nrze.t, nel ebe e role n oenl revlence ofconrc mnfcrer n e vle cn, wc re mng ermr on brngng own co. W it mrgn below 6% -enble by very g ccy lzon cro everl nre conrc mnfcrer cn eely n cely me celln emble mole, n mnfcre nverer r.

    te cryllne lcon lernng crve no e only co forecfor e pV nry, owever. tn-lm leer Fr solr own exerence crve, llower b rng lower on.

    //////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

    te nre of oer comne evelong n lm re nerly

    ll worng on nnovon n one of ve eoon rocee,n ny comny col relze brerog llowng ormclly ncree e w of e bre e nerefore ncreng e ee of rocon - beng bc-be cryllne lcon o form econ Fr solr. soon, n-lm comny col ble roce o eo n

    sorce: pl ycoc, loomberg New nergy Fnnce

    1976

    1985

    2003

    20102006

    2010

    0.1

    1

    10

    100

    1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000

    historic pricesexperience curveChinese c-Si module pricesFirst Solar thin-film module cost

    Fgre 4: te pV mole exerence crve

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    10%

    29%

    21%

    10%

    21%20% 20%

    0% 0%

    5%

    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

    0%

    90%

    11%

    34%

    25%

    14%

    7%

    0% 0% 0%

    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

    cve olr emconcor of conen efcency on exblebre oly grl of e nry, oenng new ncen movng wy from e lmon of exenve gl.

    Concenror pV lo ow rome, rome wc remerge w elle ower ece go. CpV cn receco eer by mrovng concenron rcecre or bymrovng cell converon efcency, n cn lo move mc ofe blnce of ln wor from e el o e fcory. t gve nmber of nercng oble for beng e cryllnelcon exerence crve.

    f core, ove oloo reqre. ne rcnremre, ecncl vor, dc swnon, enly ol e welve wy we crew [evelong concenror

    oovolc], n en we en bc w 1x concenron.We en wen n crewe le welve wy n enene bc 1x. in oer wor, we ol ve lene om. Wle e cl efcen, nlely o le occefl rve nnovon! i lo nlely ny oneecnology wll o ll e oer n e nex en yer, le ccorng o e Form rcn (ee Fgre 5 n 6).

    SOLAR THERMAL ELECTRICITY GENERATION (STEG):WORTH THE WAITstG ecnologe exerence nerenly fferen nryynmc from pV: ly-cle n nre; rojec- rern evce-be; w n eble energy converonmecnm fmlr from fol fel generon cole w long

    le me n nng nncl reqremen. however, mlry n fny o fol fel generon vngefor eveloer; le refer o rely on lrge mon of stGo cover er renewble ower nee n on orfolo ofoovolc, even lower er-W rce.

    all rcn gree n e us, e governmen role rojec nncer of r reor eenl o enble er commercl ln o rove er ecnologe 100-500W cle. Few, f ny, commercl lener re wllng orble o bc $2bn rojec wc no been grneeby e governmen. however, stG execve were omcbo er bly o comee on rce n ble mre wwe elecrcy gr, or w g eneron of nermen

    renewble energy. in nny mre w g eneron ofnermen renewble energy, stG comne ol n le roerly vle e ecnology oeronl vngeof cbly, orge, n ower qly. i oble vnce n bery ecnology wll enble ceer nermen

    //////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

    sorce: pl ycoc, loomberg New nergy Fnnce sorce: pl ycoc, loomberg New nergy Fnnce

    Fgre 5: in 2020, e nmber of nqe ecnologe vlble forstG (eg rbolc rog, Frenel, ower & elo, & srlngengne) wll be

    Fgre 6: in 2020, e nmber of nqe ecnologe vlble for pV(eg cryllne lcon, Cte, n lm lcon, CiGs, orgnc) wll be

    18 // 19 BLOOMBERG NEW ENERGY FINANCE

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    renewble generon o be blnce effecvely n weene ce for stG ower generon, b gmblng on eemergence of rnformve ecnology no n oon for

    ly mng 30-yer reorce ln.

    in on, ome mre, rclrly n e evelong worl,re nrnclly ble for stG nvemen. ne rcnnoe n rzze, orocco, were olr ener for125W nerwy, e elecrcy emn rven bylgng, n ere no fel ely vlble e e. snceorocco no nere ccy elewere on e gr(le mo evelong econome), ener orgnzer enece ower o m mee e emn, wc cevble only v stG w erml energy orge. en reelece for rbolc rog conor, logbo solreerve n torreol me ower n elo b

    w molen l orge - robbly, e rcn noe,relng from e crren lc of roven, commercl molen-lower ecnologe. t wll cnge oon.

    tere re mjor brrer o stG eloymen n e lnnngroce. solr eveloer eeng rovl o bl on blcln n e us nee o fy le mny conon fol fel ln, n ofen more; for exmle, ey nee o r qly revew, n exenvely ocmen er rojece werge (one rcn noe, noboy gge rerong gn col ower ln w ry coolng, n ry coole stGyem e bo en mc wer g ln). tecycle me for lnnng n ermon ecreng rly,owever, w wo nel nong e me reqre oerm e econ lrge Clforn rojec w roxmelyone-r of e me reqre for e r.

    //////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

    tble 2: solr tecnology smmry

    Parabolic trough STEG

    W orge, eer wwer were pV ronor were gr we.agmenon for col n gln, nrl roce e

    y ve me e bo er-W co no longercomee w pV. Werreqremen greer nfor pV even w ry coolng.Nee for exble jon on econnng e rnfer (htF). ny conre vezro merl rerconon htF.

    tecnology of oy

    Lely o be conno b

    ncremenl

    ConcentratorPV

    Gron-moneg-nolonre were ce remm,or were olergeneron el.

    acevng clen bnbly,my ve mee bo now c-s ce

    Low cereqremen,rcng nvnge nywy.Cn move blnceof ln wor fromel o fcory

    Concenron

    ere fromconveron rle jnconcell efcencylwy mrovng,w mllereffec for CpV,l concenroregn mrovng

    Linear FresnelSTEG

    a rnge ofemerrelcon, o ereeem for owergeneron

    y ve mee bo on conow pV ce.Wer reqremengreer n forpV even w rycoolng.

    ue le cen rbolcrog, mrrorre ce n

    jon n e ono nee o llowmovemen

    Newe egn

    ve e meemerre rbolc rogn 60% of ere

    Tower &heliostat STEG

    a for rbolcrog, oenlo be gncnlyceer

    y ve mee bo. Werreqremengreer n forpV even w rycoolng.

    Very gemerreoble, cenrlrecever egnvo nee formle of e

    Fr few lrge

    cle ln bengbl; rmclernng effecoble n llnegron re

    Cheap

    alcon

    Cllenge

    avnge

    rerog

    oenl

    Crystallinesilicon PV

    verywere

    a w ll pV,gr e mylmely lmnverly

    tecnology ofoy

    Lely o be

    conno bncremenl

    Thin flm PV

    a blng-negrepV, gronmonerojec

    Few lerye comevew cryllnelcon, lowefcency

    Gooerformncen low lg,ofen gemerre

    ably o

    eoon exblebre,or breceer ngl

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    Project finance; 20%

    Infrastructure; 6%

    Adequate project

    sites; 11%

    Water availability;

    12%

    Planning and

    permission; 9%

    Consistent policy

    support; 12%

    Levelised cost

    competition; 24%

    Technology

    applicability; 6%

    te stG nry rly orgnzng no nfl ofglobl conor, wc brng exere n crebly frome ronl energy n engneerng nre o new olr

    collecor egn (ee Fgre 8). alog, n e wor ofone rcn, nveor n rney stG ln re crrenlyreqrng more werg erformnce grnee n re lfor fol fel ower ln, ere re now nmber of gro(semen, arev, rgsorce-ecel-alom) wc cnrove ee grnee.

    solr erml egn wll lely be eloye gmenon ofol fel ower ln n mc of e worl, n lo for emgeneron for ennce ol recovery n nrl roce e.

    UTILITIES AND THE GRID: NOT THE ENEMYte olr nry orclly foce on more ongenerng energy low co er low-or n on

    vong nermen generon n elvery. a nmber ofmre, rclrly n roe, ve now ceve conerblerogre low eneron level. however, pV become menngfl oron of energy orfolo, oeronl e wllemerge. in e wor of one nel -genere elecrcy low vle elecrcy, n eveloer wll nee o wor wle o re n mnmze e co of nermency.

    tere w bro concern n e room regle len e reenl conmer ey erve wll loe o mofrom e roll-o of pV. a regle ene, le ve o

    //////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

    sorce: loomberg New nergy Fnnce solr Leer Form vong

    Fgre 7: perceve cllenge for e stG nry n 2020

    sorce: loomberg New nergy Fnnce

    Fgre 8: te olr erml elecrcy lnce 2011-2020: nry conor, mlnonl ower generor,n locl n nernonl exere

    20 // 21 BLOOMBERG NEW ENERGY FINANCE

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    //////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

    WAR GAME

    sregc mlon, or wr gme, re remr ofe loomberg New nergy Fnnce Leer Formere. te solr Leer Form fere wr gmeexrely egne for e olr ecor: mlon ofrenewble energy rocremen n comeve energymre from 2010-2020, wo ecnology-eccccy reqremen or ecnology-ecc energyymen. te wr gme fere wo gro of em:rojec eveloer, wc col elec from e ofecnologe n lcon n orer o bl ower

    generon; n le, wc col by eer by owerfrom eveloer, or bl ower orge fcle. tmre fferen from e fee-n rff mre of roe,b very mc reemble e energy mre n Clforn.

    te gme oe ey cllenge o rcn:

    i e evle ec ecnology n lcon on reng n wenee n wll rce oe rbeor rwbc ccorngly.

    i reqre everl ron of re-emen of e vlerooon of gven ecnologe er own co crvecnge, n e overll mre cnge.

    i force rcn o comrome on blng nrocremen ln, or o rorze nvemen n onebecor e exene of noer.

    te gme cree ynmc e of rocremenrege for le wc reqremen o rceclen energy o mee er nee, b w oerwefree o elec ecnologe n lcon ccorngo er elecrcl lo role n grow execon.develoer col cooe from commercl-cle pV,ly-cle pV, n olr erml elecrcy generon(stG) w n wo erml energy orge. te

    rel w mxe orfolo of ecnologe. in e erlyyer, pV omne, w no olr erml ecnology;by e nl yer, e rbe of erml energy orgen enle for nermency rele n rocremenonly of cenrl on stG w orge. in erly yer,rnmon w no rory, b emerge neenl nvemen for le n ler yer.

    develoer og o mxmze rern on nvemen;le, o mnmze ymen for energy. te wnnngregy mong e eveloer rele n rern oneqy of 18.2%. te wnnng regy mong e lerele n wege verge ower co of $79/W,9% lower n e econ-lce ly, n 38% of eregle enly co for no rcng renewbleenergy.

    an exerence Clforn eveloer ecrbe e gme glg of e even wc fel qe b le rely.

    sorce: loomberg New nergy Fnnce

    Fgre 7: uly rocremen of olr ccy by ecnology,2010-2010 (W)

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    1,000

    1,200

    2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

    PV - Commercial PV - Utility STEG STEG with storage

    o w ey re ol n cnno e vonry roc;conmer roecon n low rce grnee me lelwy cooe e leer evl wen come o fol orrenewble energy ower rce greemen. tey re lonernbly co bo enrng er enewbleporfolo snr comlnce, n fre bly o elverower, o eveloer conng of wo men, vn n ogn grge.

    xmle from hw gge g renewble energyeneron oble; e ln of 72W of wn

    n 5-6W of rbe olr, o of ol 180W eemn. t , owever, frly exenve, n no nverllyeffecve; e ln of Ln 1.6W pV rojec wccn only fee 600W ono e gr me, bece e locleel generor cnno ee w e vrbly.

    ule voce connec beween er very long nncln oeronl mefrme, n oe of er comer. toncen eveloer o bl rojec, 20-yer ppa reqre,b even lrge commercl comer refer no o loc n erelecrcy rce o fr n e fre. t connec le o

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    //////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

    2011

    2013

    2015

    2017

    2019

    2012

    2014

    2016

    2018

    2020

    First major bankruptcyo venture-backed solarcompany

    Saudi Arabia adoptsmajor PV incentiveprogram

    China has a major

    internal solar market

    New solar build exceedsnew coal build in US

    First Solar AssetInvestment Trustestablished

    US institutes a carbonprice

    Chinese solar companysponsors Super Bowl

    Green bank introduced

    in US

    PV installed at everymajor electricalsubstation in US

    50% o all new waterheating is solar thermal

    Electric vehicles 20%o new car market in

    Europe

    Solar employs 1mworkers in US

    Solar at grid parity in US

    Time o day electricitypricing in every market

    Natural gas exceeds coalor power generation inthe US

    Building code requiresPV in all new buildings

    1% o global energycomes rom solar

    Sunspots lead tooverloading o grid

    Massive upstreamconsolidation in PV celland waer manuacturing

    China supplies 70%o world PV module

    demand

    Thin-flm PV widelydeployed in vehicles

    PV is more than 50%o new energy capacityinstalled in Arica

    Utilities require energystorage with all grid-

    connected 1MW+ PVprojects

    First 1GW solar powerplant

    First Solars market capexceeds that o ConocoPhillips

    Installed PV cost below$1/W

    North Arica - to - EUundersea transmissionenabled

    Last coal-fred powerplant retired

    Desertec Phase Iinitiated in Morocco andTunisia

    Local grids routinelyoperate with 50%renewable energy

    tble 3: poble mleone o 2020

    polcy

    Fnnce

    tecnology

    nergy mre

    2020-2050

    22 // 23 BLOOMBERG NEW ENERGY FINANCE

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    0%

    25%

    5%

    25%

    40%

    5%

    0%

    25%

    5%

    25%

    40%

    5%

    Large construction companies or utilities

    Small, independent, local installers

    Large, independent specialized solar installers

    Solar manufacturers

    Fully integrated systems from IKEA or Wal-Mart, assembled at home

    Other9%

    6%

    18%

    25%

    9%

    19%

    14%

    A module with built-in control chip, which can be shut down if stolen

    Software to manage molten heat storage output

    A new quantum dot architecture nanostructed PV technology

    A compact racking system for residential PV

    A high-efficiency solar water heater with several patents

    PV distributor and microfinancier active in Ghana

    Residential PV installation in Italy

    secre (as) col be lnce o llow nvl orce n nncng e olr mre, rclrly commerclroofo pV. el e invemen tr (it) wol llowneclze cororon o o lewe. smlr vecle ve

    lrey been e n Germny, w conerble cce nmoblzng ool of noce cl w relvely lowrern reqremen. ne roblem for us-be rojec nnce e cwor of locl ncenve n e x ee

    reqremen of e feerl governmen me nrzngel moble, n gncnly rve rncon co;one rcn noe nnce rrngemen co of $0.90/W ne se, comre w below $0.20/W n Germny.

    inrnce rover nrlly ve n morn role o ly nrcng e neren r of nveng n e olr mre. in efre, mnfcrer my well bene from wrrny nrnce,o me er roc bnble, b reen j fewrorery wrrny nrnce roc ve been ol, noe ner rc non-clore greemen. projec eveloermy lo wn o coner nrng mrne crgo for lo rngrn, n wll nee envronmenl coverge n bnenerron coverge. if rojec no orgnze ecl

    roe vecle, my lo nee n execve olcy coverge.pnel recommene geng nrer n legl vornvolve n rojec evelomen erly.tere remn lle n cn be one bo olcl r, roblem rclrly relevn o mny of e mre were olrme mo ene.

    VENTURE CAPITAL AND PRIVATE EQUITY:OPPORTUNITIES, ALWAYStronlly, nveor ve bce comne re eercve n very lrge mre, ve rve ecnologe, or cngrow very lrge, very qcly. a e nel one o, eolr nry wole cnno be groe ogeer nglenvemen oorny. er, nveor ol be foce on

    e nvl roc, w wry eye on w e mre ong n w r of e vle cn re lely o wn n loefrom . tere w no on n nveng n erb yewrerecnology n 1985.

    //////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

    sorce: loomberg New nergy Fnnce solr Leer Form vong sorce: loomberg New nergy Fnnce solr Leer Form vongNoe: prcn were e o c 3, o e ol wll no o 100%

    Fgre 12: Wc cenro be ecrbe e lely rcre of emll pV n olr wer eng nllon nry n 2020?

    Fgre 13: if yo were venre cl nveor w generl clenenergy foc, wc of e followng bne ln wol yo nmo excng r glnce?

    24 // 25 BLOOMBERG NEW ENERGY FINANCE

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    a e nry mre n olr exerence we-clerollo, e nel ee econry nvemen oornerng. tee econry nvemen wll ve le o o wrocng olr energy or pV mole, n more o o w eeloymen n negron of e ecnologe, c orgen gr nvemen. a one nel ggee, nvemenn webe c Fceboo.com w no rec r of enl nvemen n creng e inerne, b e exence ofe inerne cree revoly nmgnble nfrrcre fornvemen le Fceboo.

    drng e grow ge, mny eron n nng wll

    be neee o or roc lnc. however, ere wvergence mong e nel on e reerc nevelomen e of new roc: ome rge forreercng new ecnologe for gme-cngng relee,wle oer rcce evelong n releng new eronof er roc, blng on exerence. egrle,e nel beleve correc mng w eenl for envemen cce, n enng oer eole money(for exmle by vng exor-mor bn lon grnee) vl comonen of cevng nverl bnbly.

    //////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

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    AREVASOLAR///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

    ERNST& YOUNG

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    FULFILLING THE PROMISE OFCONCENTRATING SOLAR POWER//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

    MARkET DRIVERS, INNOVATION &COMMERCIALIzATIONFr, e nry conne o lower co owr gr ry,wc e energy nry m ene n e flle ene of eerm, by crng e re co of ln, wer n emon.

    secon olr erml bly o mc n omze exngower nfrrcre. solr erml roce em, no only ogenere elecrcy or o gmen rocon exng fol-re ower ln, b lo for nrl lcon, c elnon, ennce ol recovery n foo roceng.

    Globl eloymen lo oenng mre oorne for eCsp nry, creng job n blng locl econome. tenry cn leverge locl conen, frer rvng e mre nmny conre mne n rewr loclzon.

    Fnlly, ere e rver of rong blc olcy or for Csp,rclrly overe rogreve governmen rogrm reelng o romoe new Csp evelomen.

    togeer, ee ynmc ve oene e oor for Csp lrge-cle, globl rm-.

    t were ecncl evolon come no ly. in fc,nnovon n commerclzon re e ogeer, n wmore n 1GW of nlle ccy, olr erml roven cn elver. a e nry commerclze on lrge-cle,nnovon m connlly rve ecnologcl vncemeno cre onl co recon n erformnceenncemen.

    GLOBAL SCALE DEPLOYMENTFor e Csp nry o rly relze oenl, nnovon n

    commerclzon m be cole w e bly o eloyon globl cle qcly. W e growng nmber of lrge,globl energy lyer enerng e nry, now oble.

    Coner recen, regc nvemen n Csp by aVa,semen, a, alom, ecel n b. tee globlenergy leer brng e bnbly o eloy on globl cle.tey cn relbly offer e fll cge of necery ervcen grnee from ecnology leer n pC ervceo & exere n ll bce by ol blnce ee.

    STRATEGIC VISIONLly, e Csp nry m emonre vle rooonn bo e ner- n long-erm. in aVa solr vew, ncle for ey olon:

    1. snlone ower generon;2. solr em o gmen ower generon exng

    fol-re ower ln wo e ower bloc coor emon;

    3. terml orge n olr ybr ln o offer fllcbly;

    4. an em for nrl roce lcon nelnon.

    to flly leverge ee mre oorne, e nry mrm conrcon of e fll rnge of Csp ln n nong o cree locl job n boo locl econome.

    tee fcor n mre rver combne me Csp erorcn n e globl energy loge. te nry m noweze momen o exn role n e globl energy mx nflll e rome of Csp.

    THE AREVA SOLAR PERSPECTIVE: THE CONCENTRATED SOLAR POWER INDUSTRY IS AT A CRITICALJUNCTURE, COLLECTIVELY CONTINUING TO LOWER POWER COSTS AND ENHANCE PERFORMANCE. WITHUTILITIES AND GOVERNMENTS PLANNING CSP ADDITIONS TO THEIR ENERGY PORTFOLIOS, A NUMBER OFMARkET DRIVERS AND OTHER FACTORS WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE WHETHER THE SOLAR THERMALINDUSTRY REACHES ITS FULL POTENTIAL IN THE UNITED STATES AND GLOBALLY.

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    PERSPECTIVE ON RENEWABLEENERGY INVESTMENT//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

    polcy eer n e re foce on rvng economcgrow o eze vnge n ncrengly morn ecor,rovng n energy olcy frmewor egne o mlenvemenogeer w cloely lgne economc nnrl olce o genere mnfcrng jobo crenellecl roery or co recon orce of long-ermcomeve vnge.

    Weern governmen olcy re e me regcobjecve b w e relzon mnfcrng job mgno be nble n e longer rn. in ome of e more mrerenewble energy mre, olcy now foce on energyecry n elverng e-crbonze energy e loweoble co.

    a rel, mc of e nellecl roery-rven ecnologyeveloe n roe or e us lely o be rnferre over elonger-erm o evelong mre for commercl eloymenor nrl cle mnfcrng. a e me me, cl owwll become rly globl w onor orgnzon n ml-

    lerl eloyng fn from eveloe conre n evelongone.

    dee recen nvemen grow, cl crcy remne bgge nbor o renewble energy nfrrcre el.Followng e receon, cororon n ly comneno longer ve e ee blnce ee ey cn brng ober. n, w e mnmm cl reqremen of asL iiicomng no ly, re lo bly reblng er blnce ee.a e me me, governmen olcy or n e us nroe lely o become le genero objecve f fromml o ery n eb recon.

    W ee ronl orce of cl lely o remn

    conrne for e foreeeble fre, e ecor nee new

    nveor n new con for er clere re omeencorgng gn ee wll emerge.

    Gven e very long-erm n low-r nre of renewbleenergy nfrrcre nvemen, long w e bene eyreceve from rnren long-erm fee-n rff or oer formof governmen bcng, e e cl er well-e orc nny fn, c ene bene enon ceme.in e uk, for exmle, ere been lo of ebe bo erool o cree green nvemen bn, woe role col beo conole n recge exng rojec nnce eb. twol free bn blnce ee; n f c n non e bly o e bon col enble enon fn, lfe nnrnce fn n xe ncome o nve n e ecor.

    srre by governmen olcy objecve, e-owne bnn mllerl nncl non re lo becomng morecve lyer n clenec. For exmle, Cnee e-ownebn ve ee lenng o renewble energy comne.o e roen invemen n n e roen n for

    econrcon n develomen re foce on mlngclen energy mre n re cvely lenng o e ecor.

    Ben Warrennvronmen n nergy infrrcre avory Leer,rn & Yong

    THE RENEWABLE ENERGY SECTOR IS MASSIVELY CAPITAL HUNGRY. WERE SEEING A GLOBAL RACEFOR CAPITAL, WITH A LARGE NUMBER OF JURISDICTIONS AROUND THE WORLD COMPETING FOR GREENJOBS, STRATEGIC POSITIONS AROUND CERTAIN TECHNOLOGIES AND ECONOMIC DIVERSIFICATION. OVERTHE LAST 12-24 MONTHS, DIVERGENT POLICY APPROACHES HAVE EMERGED IN THE RAPIDLY GROWINGRENEWABLE ENERGY MARkETS OF THE EASTMAINLAND CHINA, TAIWAN AND SOUTH kOREAAND THEMATURE WESTERN MARkETS, SUCH AS THE US AND EUROPE.

    30 // 31 BLOOMBERG NEW ENERGY FINANCE

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    PARTICIPANTS///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

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    PARTICIPANTS

    FORUM CHAIR: Norman PearlstineCef Conen fcer, loomberg

    kEYNOTE SPEAkER: Dan Reicherxecve drecor, seyer-tylor Cener for nergypolcy n Fnnce

    Christoph Farngng drecor, sChtt solr

    Bob Fishman

    C, aVa solr

    Joseph Fontanaprner, trncon avory servce,rn & Yong

    George Framptonsenor f Conel, Covngon & rlng

    Vahan GarboushianCt, Foner, amonx, inc.

    Arno HarrisC, ecrren nergy

    Richard Gruberpreen, sco solr Csp

    Andrew Jacprner, Covngon & rlng

    Darrell HayslipCef develomen fcer, Xreme power

    Sami khoreibiC, nvromen power syem

    John kingxecve Vce preen,Ls power develomen, LLC

    Jac LaiVp & C, Ldk solr usa

    //////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

    Dan Adlerpreen, ClCF

    John Andersen, Jr.

    Gro C & Vp, C Gro

    Mie Echartpreen, amercn Concl on enewble nergy

    Martha DugganVce preen, Governmen n eglory affr,un-solr

    Guy AugerC, ol

    Julien BaillietCef of sff n drecor of Corore affr,solr tr of amerc

    Thomas Bartolomeisenor Vce preen, ne develomen ,aVa solr

    Andrew BeebeCef Commercl fcer, snec

    Paul Breslowhe of us projec n Corore develomen,au ronc

    Alexandre Chavarothe of Clen nergy Fnnce & Clnon Globlinve, solr progrm Coornor

    Jimmy Chuanghe of srcre Fnnce, GCL solr

    John Clappxecve Vce preen & CF,solr tr of amerc

    Paul Deningersenor ngng drecor, vercore prner

    Nathaniel BullardLe anly, solr Nor amerc,loomberg New nergy Fnnce

    Jenny Chasenger, LG NW NGY FiNaNC

    Susan kishhe, Cro e inve, LG

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    E.C. Syespreen, Flexronc inrl

    Dr. Anish Tolia

    he of re develomen, Lne lecronc

    Drew TorbinVce preen - enewble nergy, proLog

    Marc van GervenC, Q-Cell Nor amerc

    David Wenstrupprogrm nger, Clnon Globl inve

    Ellen WhiteGlobl reng nger , 3 d

    Dr. Christoph WolffC, solr llennm

    John WoolardC, rgsorce

    Heather Sibleyarnce prner, rn & Yong

    kevin SmithC, solreerve

    //////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

    34 // 35 BLOOMBERG NEW ENERGY FINANCE

    Doug Maypreen & C, unrc

    Jim ModaCF, snv

    Paul NahiC, ne nergy

    Greg Nelsonxecve drecor , pN eorce

    Daniel Orosprner, klener pern Cel & yer

    Dr. karsten OtteC, solron

    Cdric Philibertsenor anly enewble nergy dvon, ia

    Philippe PouxGenerl nger , aVa solr

    Dere Priceprogrm nger - enewble nergy ,Jonon Conrol

    Dr. Ryne Raffaelledrecor, Nonl Cener of poovolc, NL

    Mie Marelli

    drecor, soern Clforn on

    Peter Mavraganisenewble nergy prcve Leer, r

    Jeff Langrn & Yong

    Angiolo LaviianoC, nrem nergy

    Dr. Paul MacGregorsenor Vce preen, Nexn

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    //////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

    loomberg New nergy Fnnce e worl leng neenen rover of bcron-be reerc o econ-mer nrenewble energy, crbon mre, energy efcency, bofel, crbon cre n orge, n ncler ower. i ff of moren 130, be n Lonon, Wngon, New Yor, sn Frncco, ejng, toyo, del, Ce town, so plo, per n syney.

    loomberg New nergy Fnnce ing servce rove ee mre nly o nveor n wn, olr, boenergy, geoerml,crbon cre n orge, energy efcency, ncler ower n e ronl energy mre. i lo offer ece ervcefor ec of e mjor emergng crbon mre: roen, inernonl (kyoo), arl, n e us were cover e lnneregonl mre well oenl feerl nve well e volnry crbon mre. loomberg New nergy Fnnce

    inry inellgence ervce rove cce o e mo comreenve be of nveor n nvemen n clen energy. teNew n reng servce e leng globl new n newleer ervce focng on clen energy nvemen. loomberg Newnergy Fnnce lo nere com reerc n conlncy n rn enor-level neworng even.

    For more nformon on loomberg New nergy Fnnce lee v:WWW.BNEF.COM

    ABOUT BLOOMBERG NEW ENERGY FINANCE

    ABOUT US

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    //////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

    DISCLAIMER

    te nformon conne n blcon erve from elece blc orce we beleve o be reonble. We o no grnee e ccrcy or comleene of nformon, wc bjec

    o cnge wo noce, n nong n ocmen ll be conre c grnee. te emen n blcon reec e crren jgmen of e or of e relevn rcle or

    fere , n o no necerly reec e onon of loomberg Fnnce L.p., loomberg L.p. or ny of er fle (loomberg) . loomberg clm ny lbly rng from e of ocmen

    or conen. Nong eren ll con e or be conre n offerng of nncl nrmen, or nvemen vce or recommenon by loomberg of n nvemen regy or weer

    or no o by, ell or ol n nvemen . LG, LG pFssiNaL , LG akts, LG NWs, LG aNYWh, LG

    tadk, LG Ndtad, LG tLVisiN, LG adi, LG pss, LG.C, LG NW NGY FiNaNC n

    NW NGY FiNaNC re remr n ervce mr of loomberg Fnnce L.p. or bre.

    loomberg Fnnce L.p. 2011. No oron of ocmen my be reroce, cnne no n elecronc yem, rbe, blcly lye or e e b of ervve wor wo eror wren conen of loomberg Fnnce L.p.

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    Joshua Slusar, New Yor

    t: +1 212 617 5955: [email protected]

    Nathaniel Bullardt: +1 415 617 7289: [email protected]

    F Futh iNFatiNpLas CNtaCt: