boma of greater cleveland ask the expert - amazon s3 · 2019-02-04 · py 2015/16 & py 2016/17...
TRANSCRIPT
BOMA of Greater Cleveland “Ask the Expert”
October 2013
©2013 Constellation Energy Resources, LLC. All rights reserved. The presentation has been prepared for informational
purposes only by Constellation NewEnergy, Inc., a subsidiary of Exelon Corporation. Errors and omissions excepted.
Summary messages
1
• Upward price pressure on FirstEnergy (FE) Ohio retail electric prices
• Low volatility and market prices present an opportunity for a “strategic
value play” on electric commodity
• There exists a “better fix” to purchasing energy
• A “solution” to increase budget certainty & reduce future energy spend
by over 10%
This presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes relating to CNE’s business as a physical energy provider. CNE does not provide and is not providing advice regarding the value or
advisability of trading in “commodity interests” as defined in the Commodity Exchange Act, 7 U.S.C. §§ 1-25, et seq., as amended (the “CEA”), including futures contracts, swaps or any other activity which would
cause CNE or any of its affiliates to be considered a commodity trading advisor under the CEA.
Agenda
1. FirstEnergy Ohio’s “Strategic Value Play”
2. A “Better Fix” to Purchasing Energy
2 This presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes relating to CNE’s business as a physical energy provider. CNE does not provide and is not providing advice regarding the value or
advisability of trading in “commodity interests” as defined in the Commodity Exchange Act, 7 U.S.C. §§ 1-25, et seq., as amended (the “CEA”), including futures contracts, swaps or any other activity which would
cause CNE or any of its affiliates to be considered a commodity trading advisor under the CEA.
Today’s retail electric prices are mostly made up of energy
3
FE Ohio Price Component Breakdown for 2012-14 Deal Term1
1Representative 1 MW commercial load profile used in this illustration
Source: Constellation
This presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes relating to CNE’s business as a physical energy provider. CNE does not provide and is not providing advice regarding the value or
advisability of trading in “commodity interests” as defined in the Commodity Exchange Act, 7 U.S.C. §§ 1-25, et seq., as amended (the “CEA”), including futures contracts, swaps or any other activity which would
cause CNE or any of its affiliates to be considered a commodity trading advisor under the CEA.
Long-term power prices show value
• Power prices shift down about 50% since highs but downward acceleration has slowed
• Prices are at relative discount, but locking in 100% fixed price still has risk
4
2008 = $86.15
2009 = $61.25
2010 = $51.50
2011 = $50.50
2012 = $38.50
Historical Power Prices
Current = $37.50
This presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes relating to CNE’s business as a physical energy provider. CNE does not provide and is not providing advice regarding the value or
advisability of trading in “commodity interests” as defined in the Commodity Exchange Act, 7 U.S.C. §§ 1-25, et seq., as amended (the “CEA”), including futures contracts, swaps or any other activity which would
cause CNE or any of its affiliates to be considered a commodity trading advisor under the CEA.
Source: Constellation
Power prices are significantly higher in eastern PJM
This presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes relating to CNE’s business as a physical energy provider. CNE does not provide and is not providing advice regarding the value or
advisability of trading in “commodity interests” as defined in the Commodity Exchange Act, 7 U.S.C. §§ 1-25, et seq., as amended (the “CEA”), including futures contracts, swaps or any other activity which would
cause CNE or any of its affiliates to be considered a commodity trading advisor under the CEA.
FE-OH
$57.59/MWh
AEP-OH
$54.79/MWh
BGE-Blt
$67.39/MWh
PEPCO-DC
$64.23/MWh
JCPL-Nth NJ
$65.15/MWh
PSEG
$65.95/MWh
COMED-Chicago
$52.23/MWh
DAYTON-OH
$55.33/MWh
5
Peak Summer Energy Only 2015-2017
Penelec
$59.50/MWh
PPL
$64.17/MWh
Meted
$62.20/MWh
Source: PJM, Constellation
Source: PJM, Constellation
6
Coal retirements affecting regional supply & demand balance
This presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes relating to CNE’s business as a physical energy provider. CNE does not provide and is not providing advice regarding the value or
advisability of trading in “commodity interests” as defined in the Commodity Exchange Act, 7 U.S.C. §§ 1-25, et seq., as amended (the “CEA”), including futures contracts, swaps or any other activity which would
cause CNE or any of its affiliates to be considered a commodity trading advisor under the CEA.
Source: PJM 2012 RTEP in Review (page 16), Constellation
Transmission expansion driven by coal retirements
7 This presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes relating to CNE’s business as a physical energy provider. CNE does not provide and is not providing advice regarding the value or
advisability of trading in “commodity interests” as defined in the Commodity Exchange Act, 7 U.S.C. §§ 1-25, et seq., as amended (the “CEA”), including futures contracts, swaps or any other activity which would
cause CNE or any of its affiliates to be considered a commodity trading advisor under the CEA.
Source: PJM 2012 RTEP in Review (page 18), Constellation
Low prices stimulating new demand for natural gas
LNG exports begin by late 2015 (4 to 6 Bcf/d by 2020)
Gas-to-Liquids Est. Demand Impact (2 Bcf/d by 2021)
LNG And CNG Vehicles (2 to 4 Bcf/d by 2020)
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Coal Retirements Increase Gas Demand (4 to 6 Bcf/d by 2016)
Industrial Demand Increase (2 Bcf/d by 2016)
8 This presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes relating to CNE’s business as a physical energy provider. CNE does not provide and is not providing advice regarding the value or
advisability of trading in “commodity interests” as defined in the Commodity Exchange Act, 7 U.S.C. §§ 1-25, et seq., as amended (the “CEA”), including futures contracts, swaps or any other activity which would
cause CNE or any of its affiliates to be considered a commodity trading advisor under the CEA.
Source: Constellation
Capacity cost overview
9
Capacity
Obligation
Capacity Charge Formula
X RPM Rate Days X = Annual Cost
Example Calculation
X X = .750 MW $28.45/
MW-Day 365 $7,788
Source: PJM, Constellation
This presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes relating to CNE’s business as a physical energy provider. CNE does not provide and is not providing advice regarding the value or
advisability of trading in “commodity interests” as defined in the Commodity Exchange Act, 7 U.S.C. §§ 1-25, et seq., as amended (the “CEA”), including futures contracts, swaps or any other activity which would
cause CNE or any of its affiliates to be considered a commodity trading advisor under the CEA.
RPM rate in FE OH to increase significantly in coming years
10
FirstEnergy Ohio RPM Rates by Planning Year
Notes:
PY 2013/14 rates based on RPM Third Incremental Auction Results
PY 2014/15 rates based on RPM First Incremental Auction Results
PY 2015/16 & PY 2016/17 results based on RPM Base Residual Auction Results
Source: PJM
This presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes relating to CNE’s business as a physical energy provider. CNE does not provide and is not providing advice regarding the value or
advisability of trading in “commodity interests” as defined in the Commodity Exchange Act, 7 U.S.C. §§ 1-25, et seq., as amended (the “CEA”), including futures contracts, swaps or any other activity which would
cause CNE or any of its affiliates to be considered a commodity trading advisor under the CEA.
Capacity charges are generally sensitive to load factor
11
FE Ohio $ / MWh Capacity Charges by Load Factor
Source: Constellation
This presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes relating to CNE’s business as a physical energy provider. CNE does not provide and is not providing advice regarding the value or
advisability of trading in “commodity interests” as defined in the Commodity Exchange Act, 7 U.S.C. §§ 1-25, et seq., as amended (the “CEA”), including futures contracts, swaps or any other activity which would
cause CNE or any of its affiliates to be considered a commodity trading advisor under the CEA.
FE Ohio retail electric prices expected to increase about 10%
12
3% decrease
in energy
196% increase
in capacity
6% increase in
other 10% price increase in overall
This presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes relating to CNE’s business as a physical energy provider. CNE does not provide and is not providing advice regarding the value or
advisability of trading in “commodity interests” as defined in the Commodity Exchange Act, 7 U.S.C. §§ 1-25, et seq., as amended (the “CEA”), including futures contracts, swaps or any other activity which would
cause CNE or any of its affiliates to be considered a commodity trading advisor under the CEA.
FE Ohio Price Build Up for 2012-14 and 2015-17 Deal Terms1
1Representative 1 MW commercial load profile used in this illustration Source: Constellation
A solution to reduce budget volatility & spend by over 10%
13
1
Immediate benefit of a lower electric rate
with participation in a Load Response
program (Rate Response)
Reduce total energy
usage by implementing
high-impact energy
conservation
measures, with costs
of measures factored
into the price
3% decrease in spend
7% decrease
in spend
3
2 3-5% decrease
in spend
Take advantage of low prices by fixing
layers today, & consider a “better fix”
with a flexible purchasing platform
This presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes relating to CNE’s business as a physical energy provider. CNE does not provide and is not providing advice regarding the value or
advisability of trading in “commodity interests” as defined in the Commodity Exchange Act, 7 U.S.C. §§ 1-25, et seq., as amended (the “CEA”), including futures contracts, swaps or any other activity which would
cause CNE or any of its affiliates to be considered a commodity trading advisor under the CEA.
Annual Spend by Scenario for a 2015-2017 Deal Term1
Source: Constellation
1Notes:
1) Representative 1 MW commercial load profile used in this illustration
2) Constellation’s proprietary i2i Energy Strategy Planner capability used to estimate impact of a blended strategy
3) Rate response scenario assumes a 20% load response reduction
4) EME scenario assumes 20% reduction is usage after implementation of energy conservation measures
Agenda
1. FirstEnergy Ohio’s “Strategic Value Play”
2. A “Better Fix” to Purchasing Energy
14 This presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes relating to CNE’s business as a physical energy provider. CNE does not provide and is not providing advice regarding the value or
advisability of trading in “commodity interests” as defined in the Commodity Exchange Act, 7 U.S.C. §§ 1-25, et seq., as amended (the “CEA”), including futures contracts, swaps or any other activity which would
cause CNE or any of its affiliates to be considered a commodity trading advisor under the CEA.
Evaluating electric supply choices can be daunting
15 This presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes relating to CNE’s business as a physical energy provider. CNE does not provide and is not providing advice regarding the value or
advisability of trading in “commodity interests” as defined in the Commodity Exchange Act, 7 U.S.C. §§ 1-25, et seq., as amended (the “CEA”), including futures contracts, swaps or any other activity which would
cause CNE or any of its affiliates to be considered a commodity trading advisor under the CEA.
Options have given customers unprecedented flexibility to align energy
purchasing strategy with corporate goals, budgets and calendars
Groundbreaking study seeks “better fix” to purchasing energy
16
• New Constellation whitepaper evaluated performance of six
purchasing strategies over a 10-year period
• Study identified which strategies would have helped customers
manage price and budget volatility risk over the past 10 years
• Whitepaper limited to review of “passive” strategies that don’t
attempt to actively optimize price or volatility over time
• Results are intended to help energy buyers better understand
their options and make more informed purchasing decisions
This presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes relating to CNE’s business as a physical energy provider. CNE does not provide and is not providing advice regarding the value or
advisability of trading in “commodity interests” as defined in the Commodity Exchange Act, 7 U.S.C. §§ 1-25, et seq., as amended (the “CEA”), including futures contracts, swaps or any other activity which would
cause CNE or any of its affiliates to be considered a commodity trading advisor under the CEA.
Six purchasing strategies illustrated
17
Ris
k
100% FP Point in Time
100% Fixed 0% Fixed
0% Fixed (Index)
Strategy
1
Blended Strategies
60 %
Fixed RTC
100% Peak Fixed
(=60% fixed overall)
100% Peak Fixed (Summer)
(=23% fixed overall)
3
4
5
6
100% FP
Layered
2
100% Fixed Price Point-in-time 100% Index (0% Fixed)
This presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes relating to CNE’s business as a physical energy provider. CNE does not provide and is not providing advice regarding the value or
advisability of trading in “commodity interests” as defined in the Commodity Exchange Act, 7 U.S.C. §§ 1-25, et seq., as amended (the “CEA”), including futures contracts, swaps or any other activity which would
cause CNE or any of its affiliates to be considered a commodity trading advisor under the CEA.
Example of 100% FP layered purchasing…
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
kW
h P
er
Ho
ur
Usage Purchase 1 - 40% Purchase 2 - 35% Purchase 3 - 25%
100%
usage at
fixed
prices
18 This presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes relating to CNE’s business as a physical energy provider. CNE does not provide and is not providing advice regarding the value or
advisability of trading in “commodity interests” as defined in the Commodity Exchange Act, 7 U.S.C. §§ 1-25, et seq., as amended (the “CEA”), including futures contracts, swaps or any other activity which would
cause CNE or any of its affiliates to be considered a commodity trading advisor under the CEA.
Source: Constellation
Example of 60% Fixed RTC blended purchasing…
Flexible Index Solutions
-
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
300.00
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
kWh
Per
Ho
ur
Usage Fixed Price Amount
Fixed
Price
For 60%
of Load
40% load not
fixed and on
Index
19 This presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes relating to CNE’s business as a physical energy provider. CNE does not provide and is not providing advice regarding the value or
advisability of trading in “commodity interests” as defined in the Commodity Exchange Act, 7 U.S.C. §§ 1-25, et seq., as amended (the “CEA”), including futures contracts, swaps or any other activity which would
cause CNE or any of its affiliates to be considered a commodity trading advisor under the CEA.
Example of 100% peak fixed blended purchasing…
20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
kW
h p
er
ho
ur
Hours
Fixed
Index
Index
This presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes relating to CNE’s business as a physical energy provider. CNE does not provide and is not providing advice regarding the value or
advisability of trading in “commodity interests” as defined in the Commodity Exchange Act, 7 U.S.C. §§ 1-25, et seq., as amended (the “CEA”), including futures contracts, swaps or any other activity which would
cause CNE or any of its affiliates to be considered a commodity trading advisor under the CEA.
10 years of dramatically rising and falling prices
21
Median Price of the Six Strategies, 2003-2012
This presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes relating to CNE’s business as a physical energy provider. CNE does not provide and is not providing advice regarding the value or
advisability of trading in “commodity interests” as defined in the Commodity Exchange Act, 7 U.S.C. §§ 1-25, et seq., as amended (the “CEA”), including futures contracts, swaps or any other activity which would
cause CNE or any of its affiliates to be considered a commodity trading advisor under the CEA.
Source: Forthcoming Constellation whitepaper “A Study of Electricity Procurement Strategies: How Price, Index & Blended Strategies
performed over 10 years of rising & falling power markets”
Significant high and low price range over 10 years
22
Annual Median, High, Low Range in Prices of the Six Strategies, 2003-2012
This presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes relating to CNE’s business as a physical energy provider. CNE does not provide and is not providing advice regarding the value or
advisability of trading in “commodity interests” as defined in the Commodity Exchange Act, 7 U.S.C. §§ 1-25, et seq., as amended (the “CEA”), including futures contracts, swaps or any other activity which would
cause CNE or any of its affiliates to be considered a commodity trading advisor under the CEA.
Source: Forthcoming Constellation whitepaper “A Study of Electricity Procurement Strategies: How Price, Index & Blended Strategies
performed over 10 years of rising & falling power markets”
Range in low and high prices varied considerably over 10 years
23
Price Range Frequency, 2003-2012
Less than
$7.50/MWh
$7.50/MWh to
$15.00/MWh
Greater than
$15.00/MWh
In 6 out of 10
years, the
price range
was greater
than
$7.50/MWh
YE
AR
S
4 YEARS
3 YEARS
3 YEARS
This presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes relating to CNE’s business as a physical energy provider. CNE does not provide and is not providing advice regarding the value or
advisability of trading in “commodity interests” as defined in the Commodity Exchange Act, 7 U.S.C. §§ 1-25, et seq., as amended (the “CEA”), including futures contracts, swaps or any other activity which would
cause CNE or any of its affiliates to be considered a commodity trading advisor under the CEA.
Source: Forthcoming Constellation whitepaper “A Study of Electricity Procurement Strategies: How Price, Index & Blended Strategies
performed over 10 years of rising & falling power markets”
Relative price performance of strategies has changed over time
24
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Lowest
Highest 100%
SUMMER
PEAK
Price
100 % Fixed
Price Point in
Time [FP PIT]
100% Index
(0% Fixed)
60% Fixed
RTC
100% Peak
Fixed
100% Peak Fixed
(summer only)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Year
Annual Price Ranking of the Six Strategies from 2003-2012
60%
FIXED
RTC
100 % Fixed
Price Layered
[FP Layered]
100%
SUMMER
PEAK
100%
SUMMER
PEAK
100%
SUMMER
PEAK
100%
SUMMER
PEAK
100%
SUMMER
PEAK
100%
SUMMER
PEAK
100%
SUMMER
PEAK
100%
SUMMER
PEAK
100%
SUMMER
PEAK
100%
INDEX
100%
INDEX
100%
INDEX
100%
INDEX
100%
INDEX
100%
INDEX 100%
INDEX
100%
INDEX
100%
INDEX
100%
INDEX
100% FP
LAYERED
100% FP
LAYERED
100% FP
LAYERED
100% FP
LAYERED
100% FP
LAYERED
100% FP
LAYERED
100% FP
LAYERED
100% FP
LAYERED
100% FP
LAYERED
100% FP
LAYERED
60%
FIXED
RTC
60%
FIXED
RTC
60%
FIXED
RTC
60%
FIXED
RTC
60%
FIXED
RTC
60%
FIXED
RTC
60%
FIXED
RTC
60%
FIXED
RTC
60%
FIXED
RTC
60%
FIXED
RTC
100%
PEAK
100%
PEAK
100%
PEAK
100%
PEAK
100%
PEAK
100%
PEAK
100%
PEAK
100%
PEAK
100%
PEAK
100%
PEAK
100% FP
PIT
100% FP
PIT
100% FP
PIT
100% FP
PIT
100% FP
PIT
100% FP
PIT
100% FP
PIT
100% FP
PIT
100% FP
PIT
100% FP
PIT
This presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes relating to CNE’s business as a physical energy provider. CNE does not provide and is not providing advice regarding the value or
advisability of trading in “commodity interests” as defined in the Commodity Exchange Act, 7 U.S.C. §§ 1-25, et seq., as amended (the “CEA”), including futures contracts, swaps or any other activity which would
cause CNE or any of its affiliates to be considered a commodity trading advisor under the CEA.
Source: Forthcoming Constellation whitepaper “A Study of Electricity Procurement Strategies: How Price, Index & Blended Strategies
performed over 10 years of rising & falling power markets”
Energy price and budget volatility differ by strategy
25
Index vs 100% Fixed Price Strategies Index vs Blended Strategies
In many cases, there is a tradeoff between volatility
and price over time…
Fixed Price Point-in-Time Fixed Price Layered 100% Peak Fixed (Summer)
This presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes relating to CNE’s business as a physical energy provider. CNE does not provide and is not providing advice regarding the value or
advisability of trading in “commodity interests” as defined in the Commodity Exchange Act, 7 U.S.C. §§ 1-25, et seq., as amended (the “CEA”), including futures contracts, swaps or any other activity which would
cause CNE or any of its affiliates to be considered a commodity trading advisor under the CEA.
Source: Forthcoming Constellation whitepaper “A Study of Electricity Procurement Strategies: How Price, Index & Blended Strategies performed over 10
years of rising & falling power markets”
Blended options: “sweetspot” in lowering risk & price over time
26
10-Year Average Price and Volatility by Strategy, 2003-2012
FIX
ED
PR
ICE
BLE
ND
ED
BLE
ND
ED
BLE
ND
ED
IND
EX
FIX
ED
PR
ICE
This presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes relating to CNE’s business as a physical energy provider. CNE does not provide and is not providing advice regarding the value or
advisability of trading in “commodity interests” as defined in the Commodity Exchange Act, 7 U.S.C. §§ 1-25, et seq., as amended (the “CEA”), including futures contracts, swaps or any other activity which would
cause CNE or any of its affiliates to be considered a commodity trading advisor under the CEA.
Source: Forthcoming Constellation whitepaper “A Study of Electricity Procurement Strategies: How Price, Index & Blended Strategies
performed over 10 years of rising & falling power markets”
Future Paths
• Key takeaway is that blended strategies have reduced both
budget risk and price over the last 10 years
• Past performance is not indicative of future results, but
findings suggest blended solutions are viable options in
developing long-term purchasing strategies
• This study did not evaluate the impact of an actively managed
purchasing strategy, where market intel, price alert tools, and
programs, support informed decisions
• An actively managed purchasing strategy may produce even
lower prices and volatility over the long term
27 This presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes relating to CNE’s business as a physical energy provider. CNE does not provide and is not providing advice regarding the value or
advisability of trading in “commodity interests” as defined in the Commodity Exchange Act, 7 U.S.C. §§ 1-25, et seq., as amended (the “CEA”), including futures contracts, swaps or any other activity which would
cause CNE or any of its affiliates to be considered a commodity trading advisor under the CEA.