bond & interest rates - the 54 year cycle
TRANSCRIPT
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8/14/2019 Bond & Interest Rates - The 54 Year Cycle
1/19
Mkjer & @jua}aru ]iuar ( Uca 15 pai} bpbda
Uc`r `r i dkjl ua}h ijidpr`r bkva}`jl mkjer ije `jua}aru }iuar ije uca`} }adiu`kjrc`w qr`jl Uca 15Pai} @jua}aru ]iua Bpbda ije uca }adiuae Nkje}iu`aff Bpbda ir |add ir Add`kuu \iva Ucak}p* Uca
Add`kuu \iva W}`jb`wda `r mirae kj uca wrpbckdklp kf uca hirrar |c`bc fk}hr wiuua}jr* @ qra ucara
wiuua}jr ir |add ir uca laja}id raju`haju `j hp fk}abiru`jl* @j iee`u`kj$ @ uina `juk bkjr`ea}iu`kjuca maciv`kq} kf uca bkhha}b`id u}iea}r*
@ mal`j mp dkkn`jl iu mkjer ije `jua}aru }iuar dkjl ua}h w}`ba wiuua}jr* Dkkn`jl iu bci}ur
rwijj`jl bajuq}`ar$ `jua}aru`jl ru}qbuq}ar i}a }avaidae |c`bc l`va ij `eai imkqu uca fquq}a kfmkjer ije `jua}aru }iuar* Uca 27 pai} bci}u }avaidr i hiok} ru}qbuq}id uq}j fk} uca mkje hi}nau*
Ij `jua}aru`jl irwabu `r uciu uca riha hiok} ru}qbuq}id uq}jr uina wdiba `j uca bq}}ajbp hi}nau*
Raa kq} ijidpr`r -bq}}ajb`ar ( Dkjl ua}h fk}abiru- |`uc uca dkjl ua}h kqudkkn fk} uca |k}der hiok}bq}}ajb`ar*
Uca `}kjp `r uciu `j rw`ua kf uca c`ruk}`biddp dk| `jua}aru }iuar uciu |a civa$ eamu b}`rar i}a
eavadkw`jl `j Aq}kwa$ Oiwij ije Qj`uae Ruiuar$
Uca mkje hi}nau #idrk njk|j ir uca eamu$ b}ae`u$ k} f`sae `jbkha hi}nau) `r i f`jijb`id hi}nau
|ca}a wi}u`b`wijur mqp ije radd eamu rabq}`u`ar$ qrqiddp `j uca fk}h kf mkjer* Mabiqra kf uca
`jva}ra }adiu`kjrc`w mau|aaj mkje vidqiu`kjr ije `jua}aru }iuar$ uca mkje hi}nau `r uca bkjeqbuk}kf dkjl ua}h `jua}aru }iuar* Eabd`j`jl mkje w}`bar haijr }`r`jl mkje p`ader ije `jua}aru }iuar*
]`r`jl mkje w}`bar haijr dk|a} p`ader ije dk|a} `jua}aru }iuar*
Uca c`ruk}p kf uca hkea}j mkje hi}nau
Uca hkjap w}kwcaur
Uca ]kucrbc`de fih`dp f}kh `ur hkearu mal`jj`jl `j uca ifua}hiuc kf Uca F}ajbc ]avkdqu`kj$
b}aiuae |ciu |ir uk avkdva `juk uca hiok} mijn`jl ckqra `j Aq}kwa* Uca fkqjea} Hipa} Ihrbcad]kucrbc`de raju fkq} kf c`r rkjr Jiucij$ Oihar$ Ridkhkj ije Bi}d uk Dkjekj$ Wi}`r$ V`ajji ije
Jiwdar }arwabu`vadp$ c`r kuca} rkj idrk biddae Ihrbcad }ahi`jae `j F}ijnfq}u |`uc c`r fiuca}* Uc`rhqd` jiu`kjid kwa}iu`kj uc}kqlckqu Aq}kwa ajimdae ucah uk civa fqdd ievijuila kf uca M}`u`rc
@jeqru}`id ]avkdqu`kj eq}`jl uca 90uc bajuq}p*
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2009/1215.htmlhttp://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2009/1215.html -
8/14/2019 Bond & Interest Rates - The 54 Year Cycle
2/19
Uca hkea}j mkje hi}nau
Uca ]kucrbc`de,r |a}a uca w}`ha hi}nau hina} fk} lkva}jhaju mkjer eq}`jl uca 90uc bajuq}p*Ucap b}aiuae uca `jua}jiu`kjid mkje hi}nau `j `ur hkea}j fk}h |c`bc hiea mkjer hk}a air`dp
u}ieimda*
Bkh`jl kqu kf uca uq}mqdaju ije bciku`b 93uc bajuq}p$ uca Aq}kwaij ruiuar `j uca 90uc bajuq}pkfuaj }ij mqelau eaf`b`ur* Uca`} uis }avajqar |ir `jrqff`b`aju uk haau uca`} aswaje`uq}ar |c`bc
|a}a qrqiddp }adiuae uk |i}r k} w}awi}iu`kj fk} |i}r* Uca `jua}aru ucap cie uk wip |ir }adiu`vadp
c`lc mabiqra ucap |a}a wa}ba`vae mp `jvaruk}r ir qj}ad`imda b}ae`uk}r eqa uk uca 93uc bajuq}p,r|i}r ije }avkdqu`kjr* Uca fk}hqdi kf uca ]kucrbc`de,r rqbbarr `j uca mkje hi}nau raahae uk ma
rab}abp$ rhqlld`jl ije }`rn uin`jl*
Uca rab}au eaid`jlr mau|aaj uca L}aan Ruiua ije Lkdehij Ribcr ije uca asbawu`kjid rab}abp kfuca Viu`bij mijn kwa}iu`kjr `r d`nadp uk ma uca u}aje `j uca bkh`jl eabiear r`h`di} uk uca kja kfuca 90uc bajuq}p* Kjba ili`j uca ]kucrbc`de fk}hqdi `r `j qra*
Uca Nkje}iu`aff Bpbda ije uca 15 pai} |ckdarida w}`ba ije `jua}aru }iua Bpbdar*
Ca}a `r i rqhhi}p kf kq} ijidpr`r kf uca `jua}aru bpbda wqmd`rcae `j -Uca Nkje}iu`aff Bpbda- f}kh9ru kf Eabahma} =770?
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8/14/2019 Bond & Interest Rates - The 54 Year Cycle
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Rkq}ba? Uca imkva bci}u f}kh Uca Dkjl\iva L}kqw `ddqru}iuar Uca Nkje}iu`aff Bpbda uc}kqlc uca bajuq}`ar* Kj iva}ila uca bpbda`r iww}ks* 15 pai}r dkjl* Uc`r u `ha uca bpbda `r hqbc dkjla}* Uca l}iwc idrk rck|r uca bkhwi}`rkj kf `jua}aru }iuar ije |ckdarida
w}`bar |c`bc i}a hk}a k} darr fkddk|`jl uca riha bpbd`b wa}`ke*
Pkq bij hina i bira uciu uca Nkje}iu`aff bpbda cir ukwwae ije wk`jur ek|j `juk =7=7*
I fkq}uc bpbda k} uca bq}}aju bpbda malij rkhau`ha ifua} \\@@ #diua 9057r) |`uc uca rw}`jl wciraije |a i}a jk| uc}kqlc |`uc uca rqhha} ije iquqhj #wdiuaiq) wcira* Irrqh`jl uciu uca |`jua}
wcira kf uca bpbda malij i}kqje =777$ ck| bij |a `eaju`fp uca mkuukh k} uca aje kf uca |`jua}wcira ije uca |ckda bpbda ;
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8/14/2019 Bond & Interest Rates - The 54 Year Cycle
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Rbcqhwaua} cie uca kw`j`kj uciu uca eabd`ja |`dd bkju`jqa madk| uca wk`ju kf ayq`d`m}`qh$ ije kjdp
|caj uca eamu ru}qbuq}a cir maaj }aruk}ae uk i rkqje mir`r |`dd uca abkjkhp }aibc uc`r wk`ju*Ck|ava}$ bkjr`ea}`jl uca l}k|`jl eamur ir |add ir uca fibu uciu jk kja cir bdi`hae uciu uca eamu
ru}qbuq}a cir maaj }aruk}ae uk i rkqje mir`r$ |a i}a ru`dd |`uc`j uca ek|ju}aje wcira kf uca bpbda
ije uca mkuukh `r `j f}kju kf qr rkhau`ha eq}`jl uca jasu eabiea*
U|k kf uca dkjl ua}h bpbdar uciu i}a aswabuae uk ma mkuukh`jl eq}`jl uca jasu fa| pai}r i}a uca15 pai} \ckdarida w}`ba Bpbda ije @jua}aru }iua Bpbda* @eaiddp$ ucara bpbdar rckqde civa mkuukhae
`j =776 mqu uca mkuukh`jl `r ru`dd `j w}kl}arr* Uca c`ruk}`bid dk| hip civa uinaj wdiba diua =773*Kq} }arai}bc `je`biuar uciu ucara bpbdar bkqde uq}j qw ifua} Oqja =799 #Uca jasu mkuukh `j uca
Hi}u`j I* I}hru}kjl W}`jbaukj Abkjkh`br 3*6 pai} bpbda)* Uca jasu `eaid ukw `j |ckdarida w}`barije `jua}aru }iuar `r aswabuae `j =722 ije uc`r haijr uciu |a |`dd civa hk}a ucij =7 pai}r kf
}`r`jl w}`bar ije `jua}aru }iuar icaie kf qr*
Dai}j hk}a imkqu bpbdar$ Nkje}iu`aff ije Rbcqhwaua} `j kq} ijidpr`r biddae -Uca Nkje}iu`aff
Bpbda-*
I bajuq}p dkkn iu `jua}aru }iuar
Uca f`}ru `jua}aru }iua bpbda ifua} uca F}ajbc }avkdqu`kj wainae `j 9392 ije eabd`jae qju`d 9355*
I ja| }`r`jl |iva kf `jua}aru }iuar `j uca =je bpbda bkhhajbae `j uca h`eeda kf 9357r ije
bkju`jqae uk uca ai}dp 93
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8/14/2019 Bond & Interest Rates - The 54 Year Cycle
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Kq} hi`j rbaji}`k `r uciu \\@@ ajeae hk}a ucij i bajuq}p dkjl mqdd hi}nau `j mkjer* Uca
fkddk|`jl eabd`ja bkju`jqae qju`d 9037 |c`bc |a civa dimadae ir |iva @* R`jba ucaj mkjer civa
}idd`ae `j i |iva @@ qw|i}e bk}}abu`kj |c`bc hkru d`nadp ajeae diua =773*
Uca 27(pai} mkje
Ca}a `r i hkjucdp bci}u kf uca 27(pai} QR U}airq}p Mkje w}`ba$ `ddqru}iu`jl uca Add`kuu \iva
bkqju`jl kf uca qw|i}e bk}}abu`kj `j mkjer kva} uca diru 27 pai}r*
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8/14/2019 Bond & Interest Rates - The 54 Year Cycle
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8/14/2019 Bond & Interest Rates - The 54 Year Cycle
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Idd bci}ur `j uc`r i}u`bda |ca}a rkq}ba `r jku rwab`f`biddp l`vaj i}a bkq}uarp kf Rukbnbci}ur*bkh*
@u dkknr d`na i 1 |iva eabd`ja `r `j w}kl}arr r`jba uca wain `j diua =773 |c`bc |a civa dimaddae
|iva 9 `j mdibn bkdkq}* \a i}a bq}}ajudp `j uca diuua} ruilar kf `u* Pkq bij aswabu rkha hk}aek|jr`ea kj mkjer mafk}a |iva 9 `r bkhwdauae*
Uca jasu ukw `j uca `jua}aru }iua bpbda `r aswabuae `j =722 k} i fa| pai}r diua} |c`bc |a irrqha
|kqde ma uca ukw kf |iva @@@ kf i bajuq}p }`ra `j `jua}aru }iuar* Mkjer |`dd kf bkq}ra eabd`ja eq}`jluca riha wa}`ke ir `jua}aru }iuar i}a }`r`jl*
97 pai}r Mkjer
Ca}a `r i hkjucdp bci}u kf uca 97(pai}r QR U}airq}p Jkua W}`ba?
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8/14/2019 Bond & Interest Rates - The 54 Year Cycle
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8/14/2019 Bond & Interest Rates - The 54 Year Cycle
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Mkjer wainae dkjl ua}h diua =773 ifua} }`r`jl r`jba 9037* I jai} 27 pai} mqdd hi}nau `j mkjer `rkva} ije |a i}a `j uca ai}dp ruilar kf i dkjl ua}h eabd`ja |c`bc rckqde diru eabiear*
@jua}aru }iuar ije mkje p`ader
\\@@ ajeae hk}a ucij i bajuq}p dkjl eabd`ja `j `jua}aru }iuar* Uca f`}ru di}la }`ra `j mkje p`ade
ije `jua}aru }iuar bkhhajbae `j uca 9057,r ije ajeae `j 9037* Uc`r |ir i |iva @ kf |ciu |amad`ava |`dd ma i bajuq}p }`ra `j `jua}aru }iuar* R`jba 9037 p`ader ije `jua}aru }iuar eabd`jae `j i
|iva @@ bk}}abu`kj |c`bc |ir bkhwdauae iu uca aje kf =773*
27 pai} mkje p`ade
Ca}a `r i hkjucdp bci}u kf uca 27(pai} U(Mkje P`ade?
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8/14/2019 Bond & Interest Rates - The 54 Year Cycle
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8/14/2019 Bond & Interest Rates - The 54 Year Cycle
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Uca Add`kuu \iva bkqju`jl kf uca bk}}abu`kj `j mkje p`ader }avaidr i eabd`j`jl z`lzil wiuua}j r`jba9039 uciu ajeae `j diua =773* I jai} 27 pai} eabd`ja `j `jua}aru }iuar `r kva} ije |a i}a `j uca
ai}dp ruilar kf i dkjl ua}h }`ra*
Uca jasu ukw `j `jua}aru }iuar `r aswabuae `j =722 k} diua}* \a irrqha uciu dkjl ua}h mkje p`aderije `jua}aru }iuar |`dd ma bkjr`ea}imdp c`lca} ucij =7! pai}dp `j uca Qj`uae Ruiuar ije hkru kuca}
eavadkwae bkqju}`ar eq}`jl uca =7=7r*
Mkje & @jua}aru }iuar bkhwi}ae uk kuca} irrau bdirrar
\a bkhwi}a mkjer & @jua}aru }iuar uk uca laja}id rukbnhi}nau ije w}ab`kqr hauid }aw}arajuae mplkde* \a qra uc`r `j i mqdd ije mai} hi}nau uk raa |c`bc kja `r uca ru}kjlaru ije |ainaru*
Uca mkje+rukbnhi}nau }iu`k
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8/14/2019 Bond & Interest Rates - The 54 Year Cycle
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Uca imkva }iu`k rck|r |c`bc kja kf rukbnr ije mkjer i}a uca maru wa}fk}h`jl irrau bdirr*Bq}}ajudp uca rukbn hi}nau `r kquwa}fk}h`jl uca mkje hi}nau*
Mkjer kquwa}fk}hae rukbnr eq}`jl uca diru eabiea ije }auq}jae 6! wa} pai} kj iva}ila |c`da
rukbnr dkru hkjap aibc pai} kj iva}ila*
Lkde + Mkje }iu`k
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8/14/2019 Bond & Interest Rates - The 54 Year Cycle
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Lkde }adiu`va uk `jua}aru }iuar `r ukww`jl dkjl ua}h* Uca eabd`ja rckqde diru eabiear$ uc`r haijr
uciu pkq |`dd hina hk}a hkjap rck}u`jl uca mkje hi}nau ucij `jvaru`jl `j lkde*
Uca mkje hi}nau bij fk}abiru d`yq`e`up |ivar
Uca b}ae`u b}qjbc `je`biuk}
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8/14/2019 Bond & Interest Rates - The 54 Year Cycle
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I wi}imkd`b ruaawaj`jl kf uca QR U}airq}pr p`ade bq}va `r ukww`jl + }kdd`jl kva}* Uca imkva`je`biuk} e`v`ear uca dkjl ua}h 97(pai} QR U}airq}p p`ade mp uca rck}u ua}h 2 hkjucr QR U}airq}p
p`ade ije uaddr pkq |caj i b}ae`u b}qjbc `r m}a|`jl* Uc`r kbbq}r |caj rck}u ua}h `jua}aru }iuar i}a
c`lca} ucij dkjl ua}h `jua}aru }iuar* Jku`ba uciu uc`r ciwwajae `j =777(=779 ije `j =776(=77