booosting nieuwjaarsborrel 2009 _boek rutger van santen
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The book: The thinking pill and other technologies that change your life
Our life in twenty years
- Life science and Medical Technology- Sustainable technologies- Communication
Questions?
- Fundamental barriers
- Solutions and resulting technologies
- Impact society
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Limits to man (summary)
• Is there a limit to age?
- technology to support the elder
• Man-made molecular life; self replicating robots?
- man’s release of boring tasks
• Intelligent computers?
- solution to data-explosion
- human embedded computational
intelligence ,replacement of human
intelligence?
- man’s responsibility for decision making,
free-will?
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1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060
Food and tobacco
Housing
Clothing etc
Food and tobacco
Housing
Clothing etc
Basic consumer expenditures decreased from 51% to 30% of
GDP in only 45 years
Witholt, ETH Zurich 2006
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1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060
Med care
Recreation
Personal Business
Med care
Recreation
Personal Business
Expenditures for health, longevity and amusementhave grown from 17% to 35% of GDP in the past 45 years
Witholt, ETH Zurich 2006
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Copenhagen consensus 2004
10 challenges facing humanity
- climate change
- communicable diseases
- conflicts and arm prolifiration
- access to education
- financial instability
- gouvernance and corruption
- malnutrition and hunger
- migration
- sanitation and access to clean water
- subsidies and trade barriers
From B. Lomborg, Global crises, global solutions; Cambridge 2004
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Brundland (1987):
Sustainable development is a social development,
which fulfills the need of present generations without
endangering the possibilities of fulfillment of the needs
of future generations
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Engineering and society triangle
The engineer changes the world with his machines
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Society ideologies determine definition of society challenges
Progress through technology Power through technology
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Technology - Science - Art
function
form material
DESIGN
Adapted from Ludwig Mies von der Rohe,
1921 Bauhaus
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Schumpeters conjuctuurcycli: 1 is de Kondratieff-cyclus; 2 is de Juglar-cyclus; 3 is de Kitchin-cyclus; 4 is de resulterende samengestelde cyclus.
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Complex phenomena:
Emergence of new phenomena as a function of scale parameter
Example:
Physics of river current with increasing stream velocity,
slow stream small waves eddy’s turbulence
Emotion
No sound musical sound thunder
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Sustainable society (1)
- “The finite earth” (motto)
1. Rigid energy supply; centralized versus decentralized
distribution
2. Sense or nonsense of
biodiesel; food versus energy - bio diversity
3. A nuclear future?; threads - challenges politics
4. Fossil future; new clean or alternative technologies
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Sustainable society (2)
- “The finite earth” (motto)
5. The ideal factory; small, modular, efficient catalysis design
6. A world without hunger; watermanegement, sustainable agriculture;
logistics
7. Life on a vulcano; sensors, communication, organization
8. A world wide balance; material cycles, extra terrestial life
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Sustainability concerns the continuation of our current human civilization
Living system(selforganization outside equilibrium) has to produce entropy(waste) Evolutionary dynamics (as in biological ecology) isalso characteristic for human forms of civilization
Key is adaptation through technological and socialInnovation
Technology gives solutions as well as problems
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Sustainable society
Threads
survival
Adaptation
Sustainable dynamical trangle
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Ecological adaptation
Type I: colonization Primary concern growth. Exhaustion of environment is secundary
- grass hoppers destr.: plants in the desert- archeological processes (iron, copper)- first industrial revolution
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Type II: consolidation
Primary concern survival (draught, cold)
- root-stem formation
- industrialization with attention for primary
environmental effects. Substitution of natural
products, selective catalysis
Ecological adaptation
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Type III: Sustainable, self supporting, “zero”
(minimum) emission system, adaptive,
selfrepair
- Tropical rain forest. Specialization of
functions, interdependance
- Sustainable human society; complex interaction
of human artefacts with industrial production:
intelligent systems
Ecological adaptation
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Example: soda process
• until 1750; …………….from seaweed
• 1780 Le Blanc process: raw materials: salt, sulphuric acid, coal,
calcium carbonate
product: hydrogensulphide (detrimental
to environment) and soda
• 1870 Solvay process: …ammonia, carbondioxide and salt gives
soda and Cl2
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Thread
Limited adaptation; destruction
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Figure 1 | Inequality in economic growth. a, Although gross world product and the value of exportsthroughout the world rose steadily during the period 1981–2001 (values relative to 1990 = 100), thenumber living below the US$2 per day poverty line has increased slightly. b, Whereas in 1820 thedifference between the mean incomes of the poorest 60% of countries and of the richest 10% wasfourfold, by 1992 the disparity was tenfold (value of mean income of poorest countries in 1820 = 1)
R. Kerry Turner and Brendan Fischer, Nature 451, pp. 1067-1068 (2008).
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Utopia
Human Extended healthy life- well being
Society Peaceful coexistance- culture- wealth
Earth Sustainable future- natural resources- adaptation
Space Exploration- non-terrestial life?- resources?- threads
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Adapted from Ruddiman, Scientific American 2002
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Source: Nature, Vol. 437, 27 October 2005Hans Joachim Schnellnhuber’s map of global ‘tipping points’ in climatic change
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Source:The Skeptical EnvironmentalistBjørn LomborgCambridge University Press 2001
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Source:Energy at the Crossroads:Global Perspectives and UncertaintiesVaclav SmilThe MIT Press 2003
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Source: Sustainable Fossil FuelsThe Unusual Suspect in the Quest for Clean and Enduring EnergyMark JaccardCambridge University Press 2005
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Source:Energy at the Crossroads:Global Perspectives and UncertaintiesVaclav SmilThe MIT Press 2003
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Source: Science Vol 311 10 February 2006, pp. 764Article: A Budget With Big Winners and Losers
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Source: Sustainable Fossil FuelsThe Unusual Suspect in the Quest for Clean and Enduring EnergyMark JaccardCambridge University Press 2005
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Source: Sustainable Fossil FuelsThe Unusual Suspect in the Quest for Clean and Enduring EnergyMark JaccardCambridge University Press 2005
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Source: Science Vol 311 27 January 2006, pp. 484Article: The Path Forward for Biofuels and Biomaterials
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Source:The Skeptical EnvironmentalistBjørn LomborgCambridge University Press 2001
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Sustainable society
Scientific issue - Stability analysis of complex systems (climate;
stability rainforest);
network theory
- Frictionless conversion of energy to motion;
efficient primary to secundary energy
conversion
(molecular systems; precision engineering)
-From craddle to cradle, nonemission society;
recycle
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Outcome of the book:
- Technology is a necessity to maintain human civilization- The challenge to technology is to create predictable behaviour of complex systems- The challenge to science is to understand the interacting networks and building blocks that lead to the multiscale phenomena of natural world and universe- Technological innovation through organizational adaptation is also a necessity to maintain human civilization.
V. Kandinsky, Blue Segment 1921
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Essential technologies
- Pattern recognition (data mining)
- imaging (hardware)
- resolution, speed
- Communication - nano / molecular dimensional devices - embedded systems - hardware - software - networks - long range, short range
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Essential technologies
- Materials
- electronic, mechanical
- smart, self-healing - tissue engineering - complex molecular systems (biomimetics)
- Robotics - integration - computer science - sensors and actors and materials
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Utopia
Human Extended healthy life- well being
Society Peaceful coexistance- culture- wealth
Earth Sustainable future- natural resources- adaptation
Space Exploration- non-terrestial life?- resources?- threads
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Ecological adaptation versus Disruptive change through human thrive