Border Institute IVBorder Institute IV

Binational Water Management PlanningBinational Water Management PlanningConsideration of Opportunities,Consideration of Opportunities,

Costs, Benefits,Costs, Benefits,& Unintended Consequences & Unintended Consequences

Rio Rico, ArizonaRio Rico, ArizonaMay 6, 7 and 8, 2002May 6, 7 and 8, 2002

Charles D. Turner, Ph.D., P.E. Charles D. Turner, Ph.D., P.E. UTEPUTEP Oscar F. Ibáñez H., M.S. Oscar F. Ibáñez H., M.S. UACJUACJ

Ed Hamlyn, AICPEd Hamlyn, AICP UTEPUTEP

Balancing Water

Balancing WaterSupply &

DemandSupply & Demand

The Challenge of

The Challenge of

U.S.-Mexico Border Region

10 States200 km

48 Counties

96 Municipios

200

0 P

op

ula

tion (

in m

illio

ns)

0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Mexicali

Tucson

Cd. Juárez

San Diego

Nuevo Laredo

Lower Rio Grande Valley

West Central East

Doña Ana

AscensiónJuárez

El Paso

Hudspeth

Guadalupe

P.G. Guerrero

Otero

Rio GrandeRío Bravo

Elephant Butte

Caballo

Pecos

Salt Basin

El Paso

Cd. Juárez

Las Cruces

Hueco Bolson

Tularosa Basin

Jornada del Muerto

Mesilla Bolson

Conejos Médanos

Rio Grande Aquifer

2,500,000

2,000,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

Historical Population GrowthHistorical Population Growth

2,073,000190

6 -

Mexic

an

Wate

r Tre

aty

193

8 –

Rio

Gra

nd

e

Com

pact 195

4-5

8 –

Dro

ught

of

Reco

rdDoña Ana County

El Paso County

Juárez Municipio

43,291

194

4 –

Mexic

an W

ate

r Tre

aty

- 1%

0%

+ 1%

+ 2%

+ 3%

+ 4%

+ 5%

+ 6%

+ 7%

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Comparative Growth RatesComparative Growth Rates

World United States México Paso del Norte

Avera

ge A

nnu

al G

row

th R

ate

5,000,000

4,000,000

3,000,000

2,000,000

1,000,000

Projected Population GrowthProjected Population Growth6,000,000

198

0

200

0

202

0

204

0

190

0

192

0

194

0

196

0

7,000,000

329,000

1,082,000

2,518,000

3,929,000

1000

900

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1994

1996

1998

2000

1992

Per

Capit

a W

ate

r U

se(l

iters

/pers

on/d

ay)

1980

Per Capita Water Use TrendsPer Capita Water Use Trends

848

606

2000

350

El Paso

Cd. Juárez

250 km

128o

52o

Albuquerque

Lubbock

Hermosillo

Tucson

Phoenix

Chihuahua

MidlandOdessa

Elephant Butte Irrigation District

42%

El Paso County Water Improvement

Dist. No. 123%

CNA Distrito de Riego 009

13%Junta Municipal de

Aguas y Saneamiento

10%

El Paso Water Utilities11%

City of Las Cruces1%

Agriculture Constitutes 78% of all Water Use in the Region Agriculture Constitutes 78% of all Water Use in the Region

Doña Ana County

New MexicoDoña Ana County

New MexicoEl Paso County

TexasEl Paso County

TexasJuárez Municipio

ChihuahuaJuárez Municipio

Chihuahua

Surface Water AllocationSurface Water Allocation

36,4

00 h

a

27,9

00 h

a

12,1

00 h

a

174,6

82

1,2

18,8

17

679,6

22

333 M

m3

255 M

m3

74 M

m3

Irrigated Land (in ha)Irrigated Land (in ha)Surface Water Allocation (in Surface Water Allocation (in MmMm33))PopulationPopulation

Albuquerque

Santa Fe

Las Cruces

El Paso

Cd. Juárez

El Paso

Elephant Butte

Albuquerque

Lobatos

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

0500

100015002000250030003500400045005000

Monthly Mean Flow (cfs)

Months

Figure 10: Average Flows for the Rio Grande

JanFeb

MarApr

May

JunJu

l

AugSep

Oct

Nov

DecEl Paso

Elephant Butte

Albuquerque

Lobatos

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Monthy-Mean Flow (cfs)

Figure 11: Average Low Flows for the Rio Grande

050000

100000150000200000250000300000350000400000450000500000550000600000650000700000

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Vol

ume

in A

cre

Fee

t

ACEQUIA MADRE EBID DIVERSION AT HEADING

EPCWID #1 DIVERSION AT HEADING EPWU

HCCRD #1 DIVERSION AT HEADING

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12Months

Mo

nth

ly-M

ea

n F

low

(c

fs)

Average Flow Years at El Paso

Figure 9: Drought Flow Years at El Paso

050

100150200250300350

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Months

Mo

nth

ly-M

ean

Flo

w

(cfs

)

1955 1956 1964 Average

Figure 12: Total Annual Salt Load at El Paso,1933-1994

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1933 1943 1953 1963 1973 1983 1993

To

tal

To

ns

of

Sa

lt p

er

Ye

ar

Figure 13: El Paso Annual-Mean in Tons per Acre-Foot, 1933-1994

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1933 1943 1953 1963 1973 1983 1993

To

ns

of

Sal

t p

er A

cre-

Fo

ot

Figure 14: Flow vs. Total Salts at El Paso, 1933-1994

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

0 400,000 800,000 1,200,000 1,600,000

Flow (Acre-feet per Year)

To

ns

of

Sa

lt p

er

Ye

ar

Figure 15: Total Cumulative Salt at El Paso1933-1994

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

1933 1943 1953 1963 1973 1983 1993

To

ns

of

Sal

t

y = 7E-06x2 - 0.0147x

R2 = 0.95

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005years

$ / K

gal

y = 0.0034x2 - 13.69x + 13593

R2 = 0.8302

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

2.00

1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006

$ / K

gal

Canal Street

Poly. (Canal Street)

Cost of Surface Water Treatment

PerspectivesPerspectives

Knowledge / TimeframeKnowledge / TimeframePoliti

cal In

flu

en

ce

Politi

cal In

flu

en

ce

Alphabet Soup of Water Alphabet Soup of Water ManagementManagement

• IBWC/CILA• EPCWID/EBID/009• USBR• EPA/SEMARNAT• BECC/COCEF• CNA• TNRCC/OSE

Wa

ter

Su

pp

ly (

m3/s

)Proposed Water Supply for Cd. JuárezProposed Water Supply for Cd. Juárez

Hueco Bolson

10

11

12

9

6

7

8

1

2

3

4

5

0

2000

2010

2020

2005

2015

Río Bravo Surface Water

Conejos Médanos N.

Conejos Médanos S.

Río Bravo Aquifer

Bismark Mines

320160 200 240 280 320 360 400 440 480 520 560 600 640 680 720 760

2

4

6

8

10

0

Sustainable Population Sustainable Population ParametersParameters

Pop

ula

tion

(i

n m

illio

ns)

Per Capita Water Use (liters per person per day)

Surface Water Surface Water 740 740 MmMm33

Natural Recharge Natural Recharge 30 Mm30 Mm33 No Agriculture, 50%

RecyclingNo Agriculture, No Recycling 50% Agriculture, No Recycling

• An International Water Management District

Scenarios for Cooperative Scenarios for Cooperative PlanningPlanning

Sovereignty Precludes this Option!

• Individual actions based on parochial interests

• Guarded dialogue and limited cooperation

• Forthright information-sharing & willingness to engage in projects of mutual benefit

Tools for Possible SolutionsTools for Possible Solutions

• Technology

• Water Markets

• Region-based Cooperation

• Conservation

• Growth Management

• Financial Capability