border security by the numbers
DESCRIPTION
he Border Security, Economic Opportunity, and Immigration Modernization Act (S.744, or the Gang of Eight bill) establishes a 90 percent “effectiveness rate” as a goal for each of the nine separate sectors along the southern border.TRANSCRIPT
Immigration Task Force
Issue Brief: Border Security by the Numbers | 1
ISSUE BRIEF:
Border Security by the Numbers MAY 2013
The Border Security, Economic Opportunity, and Immigration Modernization Act (S.744, or the Gang of Eight bill) establishes a 90 percent “effectiveness rate” as a goal for each of the nine separate sectors along the southern border. Originally, the bill only required this to be achieved in high-risk sectors, or one “in which more than 30,000 individuals were apprehended during the most recent fiscal year.” At Senate Judiciary Committee Markup, the first amendment Senator Grassley filed struck all references to high-risk sectors. This amendment passed by voice vote, meaning these changes will be incorporated into the legislation as it moves to the Senate floor.
The bill defines the effectiveness rate as follows:
The “effectiveness rate,” in the case of a border sector, is the percent-age calculated by dividing the number of apprehensions and turn backs in the sector during a fiscal year by the total number of illegal entries in the sector during such fiscal year.
Typically, the Border Patrol only releases one component of this metric: the total number of apprehensions. This makes long-term effectiveness trends impossible to calculate, at least for the public. However, a 2012 Government Accountability Office (GAO) report contains all of the information needed to calculate the effectiveness rate for fiscal years 2006 through 2011.
Issue Brief: Border Security by the Numbers | 2
Figure 1. Apprehensions, turn backs, and got aways for all southwest border sectors, FY2006–2011
The unauthorized immigrant population has declined since 2007, which many attribute to the struggling economy. This decline is reflected in the numbers at the border. Total border incidents recorded by Border Patrol declined from nearly two million in FY2006 to just over 500,000 in FY2011. Eight of the nine border sectors improved. None of the nine border sectors had achieved 90 percent effectiveness in FY2006, but four did in FY2011 (El Centro, El Paso, San Diego, and Yuma), with three coming in at 83 percent or more (Del Rio, Laredo, and Tucson). Big Bend and Rio Grande Valley lagged behind at around 70 percent each.
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500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Th
ou
san
ds
of
Inci
den
ts
Apprehensions Turn backs Got aways
Issue Brief: Border Security by the Numbers | 3
Figure 2. Map of southwest border sectors
Source: U.S. Customs and Border Protection.
Effectiveness rates are clearly improving, but the same GAO report noted that effectiveness rates among sectors are not strictly comparable because data-collection practices were only standardized recently:
Until recently sectors have differed in how they collect and report data that Border Patrol used to assess its overall effectiveness in using resources to secure the border, precluding comparison across sectors. In September 2012, Border Patrol issued new guidance on standardizing data collection and reporting practices that could increase data reliability and allow comparison across locations.
It appears that between FY2006 and FY2011, Border Patrol made progress toward the Gang of Eight’s border-security targets. However, it is not clear whether that improvement was due to increased investments in security or due to the fact that there were many fewer attempted border crossers to deal with. Newly standardized guidance on data collection and reporting could also alter the picture.
The tables below present the full underlying data, compiled from figures contained in the same 2012 GAO report. Totals should be treated as weighted averages, not overall effectiveness rates.
Issue Brief: Border Security by the Numbers | 4
Table 1. Percent of apprehensions, turn backs, got aways, and effectiveness for all southwest border sectors, FY2006–2011
YEA
R
TYPE
BIG
BEN
D
DEL
RIO
EL C
ENTR
O
EL P
ASO
LARE
DO
RIO
G
RAN
DE
VA
LLEY
SAN
DIE
GO
TUC
SON
YU
MA
TOTA
L
FY 2006
Apprehensions 83.42% 58.02% 58.40% 33.99% 62.60% 48.59% 52.54% 62.05% 56.99% 53.45%
Turn backs 2.66% 4.94% 24.36% 38.95% 7.64% 6.84% 27.93% 4.88% 6.82% 15.66%
Got aways 13.93% 37.03% 17.24% 27.07% 29.76% 44.56% 19.53% 33.07% 36.19% 30.89%
Effectiveness 86.07% 62.97% 82.76% 72.93% 70.24% 55.44% 80.47% 66.93% 63.81% 69.11%
FY 2007
Apprehensions 86.24% 55.54% 59.00% 38.54% 50.58% 42.36% 57.16% 58.10% 67.81% 53.74%
Turn backs 1.34% 13.10% 25.76% 48.26% 13.89% 10.24% 20.28% 5.81% 10.88% 15.99%
Got aways 12.42% 31.36% 15.24% 13.20% 35.53% 47.40% 22.55% 36.09% 21.31% 30.27%
Effectiveness 87.58% 68.64% 84.76% 86.80% 64.47% 52.60% 77.45% 63.91% 78.69% 69.73%
FY 2008
Apprehensions 79.51% 60.66% 66.45% 33.31% 53.84% 44.74% 64.26% 58.93% 64.12% 56.49%
Turn backs 1.83% 11.59% 17.07% 59.37% 23.88% 12.47% 17.72% 9.00% 23.48% 16.42%
Got aways 18.66% 27.74% 16.48% 7.32% 22.28% 42.79% 18.02% 32.08% 12.40% 27.09%
Effectiveness 81.34% 72.26% 83.52% 92.68% 77.72% 57.21% 81.98% 67.92% 87.60% 72.91%
FY 2009
Apprehensions 71.44% 69.56% 68.63% 29.88% 48.70% 44.65% 69.19% 58.86% 65.71% 57.23%
Turn backs 2.00% 12.23% 19.06% 64.51% 35.12% 15.94% 17.58% 12.44% 26.04% 18.96%
Got aways 26.55% 18.21% 12.31% 5.62% 16.18% 39.41% 13.23% 28.70% 8.25% 23.81%
Effectiveness 73.45% 81.79% 87.69% 94.38% 83.82% 60.59% 86.77% 71.30% 91.75% 76.19%
FY 2010
Apprehensions 69.45% 69.16% 73.42% 33.07% 53.71% 45.02% 71.66% 62.41% 74.40% 59.37%
Turn backs 3.56% 16.77% 15.32% 62.64% 33.04% 18.11% 18.06% 15.38% 20.41% 19.95%
Got aways 26.99% 14.08% 11.25% 4.28% 13.24% 36.87% 10.28% 22.21% 5.19% 20.69%
Effectiveness 73.01% 85.92% 88.75% 95.72% 86.76% 63.13% 89.72% 77.79% 94.81% 79.31%
FY 2011
Apprehensions 62.28% 69.90% 79.01% 35.92% 59.78% 48.48% 75.78% 64.34% 74.36% 61.31%
Turn backs 5.69% 16.56% 11.53% 60.45% 24.17% 22.36% 16.08% 22.53% 19.38% 22.67%
Got aways 32.03% 13.54% 9.46% 3.63% 16.05% 29.16% 8.14% 13.13% 6.26% 16.02%
Effectiveness 67.97% 86.46% 90.54% 96.37% 83.95% 70.84% 91.86% 86.87% 93.74% 83.98%
Issue Brief: Border Security by the Numbers | 5
Table 2. Number of apprehensions, turn backs, got aways, and total incidents for each southwest border sector, FY 2006-2011
YEA
R
TYPE
BIG
BEN
D
DEL
RIO
EL
CEN
TRO
EL P
ASO
LARE
DO
RIO
G
RAN
DE
VA
LLEY
SAN
D
IEG
O
TUC
SON
YU
MA
TOTA
L
FY 2006
Apprehensions 7,505 42,598 57,408 122,029 74,759 110,032 140,459 389,326 120,356 1,064,472
Turn backs 239 3,629 23,945 139,841 9,129 15,494 74,672 30,641 14,400 311,990
Got aways 1,253 27,188 16,945 97,191 35,538 100,909 52,216 207,519 76,428 615,187
Total 8,997 73,415 98,298 359,061 119,426 226,435 267,347 627,486 211,184 1,991,649
FY 2007
Apprehensions 5,533 22,903 56,098 75,022 56,673 73,340 151,051 378,141 36,780 855,541
Turn backs 86 5,401 24,494 93,931 15,559 17,728 53,596 37,790 5,901 254,486
Got aways 797 12,930 14,496 25,683 39,804 82,058 59,596 234,927 11,560 481,851
Total 6,416 41,234 95,088 194,636 112,036 173,126 264,243 650,858 54,241 1,591,878
FY 2008
Apprehensions 5,393 20,714 41,223 29,916 43,619 75,470 161,931 316,341 7,711 702,318
Turn backs 124 3,959 10,592 53,328 19,350 21,041 44,665 48,294 2,823 204,176
Got aways 1,266 9,472 10,222 6,575 18,048 72,182 45,415 172,187 1,491 336,858
Total 6,783 34,145 62,037 89,819 81,017 168,693 252,011 536,822 12,025 1,243,352
FY 2009
Apprehensions 6,345 17,046 33,515 14,662 40,412 61,092 118,415 242,016 5,631 539,134
Turn backs 178 2,998 9,307 31,656 29,147 21,811 30,088 51,145 2,232 178,562
Got aways 2,358 4,463 6,012 2,756 13,428 53,920 22,640 118,010 707 224,294
Total 8,881 24,507 48,834 49,074 82,987 136,823 171,143 411,171 8,570 941,990
FY 2010
Apprehensions 5,270 14,941 32,623 12,002 34,030 60,591 68,263 212,783 5,961 446,464
Turn backs 270 3,623 6,808 22,733 20,934 24,370 17,203 52,424 1,635 150,000
Got aways 2,048 3,041 5,000 1,555 8,390 49,625 9,789 75,723 416 155,587
Total 7,588 21,605 44,431 36,290 63,354 134,586 95,255 340,930 8,012 752,051
FY 2011
Apprehensions 4,027 16,661 30,172 9,994 35,201 59,450 42,389 124,363 4,861 327,118
Turn backs 368 3,948 4,402 16,819 14,233 27,418 8,992 43,539 1,267 120,986
Got aways 2,071 3,228 3,612 1,010 9,449 35,759 4,553 25,376 409 85,467
Total 6,466 23,837 38,186 27,823 58,883 122,627 55,934 193,278 6,537 533,571