boston globe poll on key political races in mass

8/8/2019 Boston Globe poll on key political races in Mass.

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BOSTON GLOBE POLL #28

MA 2010 GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION

Prepared by:

Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D.

The Survey Center University of New Hampshire

October 23, 2010



Contents

Technical Report.......................................................................... 1

Questionnaire............................................................................... 2

Data Tables ................................................................................15



1

The Boston Globe Poll #28

MA 2012 Gubernatorial Election

Conducted by the UNH Survey Center

October, 2010

Technical Report

Field Period: October 17 to October 22, 2010

Hours: 10 a.m. to 9 p.m.

Median Completion Time: 16 minutes

Full Sample

Sample Size: 601 randomly selected Massachusetts adults (RDD)519 randomly selected likely November, 2010 voters

Sampling Error: Full sample +/- 4.0%Likely voters +/- 4.3%

Response Rate, Full Sample (AAPOR #4): 29%

4th

CDSample Size: 407 randomly selected MA 4 th CD adults (RDD)

385 randomly selected likely November, 2010 voters

Sampling Error: Full 4th CD sample +/- 4.9%4th CD Likely voters +/- 5.0%

10th

CDSample Size: 367 randomly selected MA 10 th CD adults (RDD)

349 randomly selected likely November, 2010 voters

Sampling Error: Full 4th CD sample +/- 5.1%4th CD Likely voters +/- 5.2%

Response Rate, 4th

and 10th

CD oversample (AAPOR #4): 20%

The data have been weighted by the number of adults in a household and the number of telephone numbers atwhich a household can be reached in order to equalize the chances of an individual MA adult being selected.The data have also been weighted by the sex and race of the respondent and the region of the state based onthe American Community Survey conducted by the US Census.



2

The Boston Globe Poll #28

Conducted by the UNH Survey Center

October, 2010

FINAL

INTRO:

“Good afternoon / evening. My name is _____________________ and I'm calling from the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. We are conducting a short, confidential study about politics and policy inMassachusetts, and we'd really appreciate your help and cooperation.”

1 CONTINUE99 REFUSED

BIR1“In order to determine who to interview, could you tell me, of the adults aged 18 or older who currently livein your household -- including yourself -- who had the most recent birthday? I don't mean who is theyoungest, but rather, who had the most recent birthday?”

1 INFORMANT SKIP TO SEX2 SOMEONE ELSE (SPECIFY): ________________ SKIP TO INT23 DON'T KNOW ALL BIRTHDAYS, ONLY SOME CONTINUE WITH BIR24 DON'T KNOW ANY BIRTHDAYS OTHER THAN OWN SKIP TO SEX

99 REFUSED -- ENTER NON-RESPONSE INFORMATION

BIR2“Of the ones that you do know, who had the most recent birthday?”

1 INFORMANT SKIP TO SEX2 SOMEONE ELSE (SPECIFY): ___________________ SKIP TO INT2

99 REFUSED

INT2ASK TO SPEAK TO THAT PERSON“Good afternoon / evening, this is _____________________ calling from the University of New Hampshire.This month, we are conducting a confidential study about politics and policy in Massachusetts, and we'dreally appreciate your help and cooperation. You have been identified as the adult in your household who hadthe most recent birthday. Is this correct?”

1 YES SKIP TO SEX2 APPOINTMENT

99 REFUSAL TERMINATE



4

GOVAPP“GENERALLY SPEAKING, do you approve or disapprove of the way Deval Patrick is handling his job asgovernor?”

(IF APPROVE): “Would you say that you STRONGLY approve of the way he is handling his job asgovernor, or that you approve only SOMEWHAT?”

(IF DISAPPROVE): “Would you say that you STRONGLY disapprove of the way he is handling his job as

governor, or that you disapprove only SOMEWHAT?”(IF NEITHER, NOT SURE, DK): “Would you say that you lean a little more toward APPROVING or DISAPPROVING of the way he is handling his job as governor?”

1 STRONGLY APPROVE2 APPROVE SOMEWHAT3 LEAN TOWARD APPROVING

4 NEITHER, NOT SURE, DK

5 LEAN TOWARD DISAPPROVING6 DISAPPROVE SOMEWHAT

7 STRONGLY DISAPPROVE

* 99 NA / REFUSED

REGVOTE“Are you registered to vote at your current address?”

IF YES: “Are you registered to vote as a Democrat, Independent, Republican or something else?”

1 REGISTERED DEMOCRAT2 REGISTERED INDEPENDENT / UNAFFILIATED3 REGISTERED REPUBLICAN4 REGISTERED OTHER

98 NOT REGISTERED / DK (DO NOT PROBE) SKIPTO VOTEMOT* 99 NA / REFUSED SKIPTO VOTEMOT

VOTEINT“And as you know, the general election for Governor of Massachusetts and other offices is being held in November 2010. How interested would you say you are in the 2010 general election ... extremely interested... very interested ... somewhat interested ... or not very interested?”

1 EXTREMELY INTERESTED2 VERY INTERESTED3 SOMEWHAT INTERESTED4 NOT VERY INTERESTED

98 DK (DO NOT PROBE)* 99 NA



5

VOTELIKE“Which of the following statements best describes you ... (READ NUMBERS 1 TO 5)

1 I will probably NOT vote in the November 2010 general election, SKIPTO VOTEMOT2 I MAY vote in the November 2010 general election, , SKIPTO VOTEMOT3 Unless some emergency comes up, I WILL vote in the 2010 general election,4 I will DEFINITELY vote in the 2010 general election, or

5 I just don't know at this time.”

SKIPTO VOTEMOT

* 99 NA/REFUSED SKIPTO VOTEMOT

FAV

“Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if youhave a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person -- or if you don’t know enough about him or her to say.First, how about ... ROTATE FAV1 TO FAV8

FAV1“Governor Deval Patrick.”

IF NECESSARY: “Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion about him, or don’t you know enoughabout him to say?”

1 FAVORABLE2 NEITHER FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE - VOLUNTEERED3 UNFAVORABLE

98 DK / NEVER HEARD OF / KNOW TOO LITTLE TO SAY* 99 NA / REFUSED

FAV2 “State Treasurer Tim Cahill.”

FAV3 “Republican gubernatorial candidate Charlie Baker.”

FAV4 “Green Party gubernatorial candidate Jill Stein.”

GOV1“Have you definitely decided who you will vote for in the election for Massachusetts governor in 2010 … areyou leaning toward someone … or have you considered some candidates but are still trying to decide?”

1 DEFINITELY DECIDED WHO WILL VOTE FOR 2 LEANING TOWARD SOMEONE3 STILL TRYING TO DECIDE

99 NA / REFUSED



6

GOV2“If the 2010 Massachusetts gubernatorial election was being held TODAY and the candidates are CharlieBaker, the Republican … Deval Patrick, the Democrat … Tim Cahill, the Independent … and Jill Stein, theGreen-Rainbow candidate, who would you vote for ... Charlie Baker … Deval Patrick … Tim Cahill … or JillStein?" ROTATE CANDIDATES

1 BAKER

2 PATRICK 3 CAHILL4 STEIN5 OTHER

6 WILL NOT VOTE IN GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION SKIPTO TREAS

98 DK / UNSURE SKIPTO TREAS* 99 NA/REFUSED SKIPTO TREAS

GOV3

“Who would your second choice be?

1 BAKER 2 PATRICK 3 CAHILL4 STEIN5 OTHER

6 NO SECOND CHOICE

98 DK / UNSURE* 99 NA/REFUSED

TREAS“If the 2010 election for Massachusetts state Treasurer was being held TODAY and the candidates are KarynPolito, the Republican and Steve Grossman, the Democrat, who would you vote for ... Karyn Polito … or Steve Grossman?" ROTATE CANDIDATES

1 POLITO2 GROSSMAN3 OTHER

4 WILL NOT VOTE IN STATE TREASURER ELECTION




7

AUDIT“And if the 2010 election for Massachusetts state Auditor was being held TODAY and the candidates areMary Connaughton, the Republican and Suzanne Bump, the Democrat, who would you vote for ... MaryConnaughton … or Suzanne Bump " ROTATE CANDIDATES

1 CONNAUGHTON2 BUMP

3 OTHER

4 WILL NOT VOTE IN STATE AUDITOR ELECTION


AG“And if the 2010 election for Massachusetts Attorney General was being held TODAY and the candidates areMartha Coakley, the Democrat, and James McKenna, the Republican, who would you vote for ... MarthaCoakley … or James McKenna?” ROTATE CANDIDATES

1 MCKENNA2 COAKLEY3 OTHER

4 WILL NOT VOTE IN ATTORNEY GENERAL ELECTION

98 DON’T KNOW* 99 NA/REFUSED

IF (DIST = 4) SKIPTO CONGD4IF (DIST = 10) SKIPTO CONGD10

CONGVOTE"Please think about the November election for your representative to the U.S. House of Representatives. Doyou plan to vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives ... or doyou plan to skip the election for U.S. House of Representatives this time?" ROTATE PARTIES

ROTATE PARTIES

1 REPUBLICAN2 DEMOCRAT3 OTHER 4 WILL NOT VOTE IN US HOUSE ELECTION

98 DK / NOT SURE* 99 NA / REFUSED

SKIPTO REPVOTE



8

CONG4"Please think about the November election for your representative to the U.S. House of Representatives. Doyou plan to vote for Barney Frank, the Democrat … Sean Bielat (BEE – lat), the Republican … some other candidate ... or do you plan to skip the election for U.S. House of Representatives this time?" ROTATECANDIDATES

1 BIELAT

2 FRANK 3 OTHER 4 WILL NOT VOTE IN US HOUSE ELECTION


SKIPTO REPVOTE

CONG10"Please think about the November election for your representative to the U.S. House of Representatives. Doyou plan to vote for William Keating, the Democrat … Jeffrey Perry, the Republican … Maryanne Lewis, the

independent candidate ... James Sheets, the other independent candidate … some other candidate ... or do you plan to skip the election for U.S. House of Representatives this time?" ROTATE CANDIDATES

1 PERRY2 KEATING3 LEWIS4 SHEETS5 OTHER 6 WILL NOT VOTE IN US HOUSE ELECTION


REPVOTE"And turning to the November election for your representative for the Massachusetts House of Representatives. Do you plan to vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate for the MassachusettsHouse of Representatives ... or do you plan to skip the election for Massachusetts House of Representativesthis time?" ROTATE PARTIES

1 REPUBLICAN2 DEMOCRAT3 OTHER

4 WILL NOT VOTE IN US HOUSE ELECTION




9

BALLOT1“As you may know, Question 1 on the November ballot is a proposal to eliminate sales tax on alcohol sold inMassachusetts. Do you favor or oppose ballot Question 1, the proposal to eliminate the sales tax on alcoholsold in Massachusetts, or haven’t you thought about this enough to say?”

“Is that strongly or just somewhat?”

1 STRONGLY FAVOR 2 SOMEWHAT FAVOR 3 SOMEWHAT OPPOSE4 STRONGLY OPPOSE

98 DK / NOT SURE / HAVEN’T THOUGHT ENOUGH ABOUT IT TO SAY* 99 NA / REFUSED

BALLOT2“And as you may know, Question 2 on the November ballot is a proposal that would repeal the state’saffordable housing law. Do you favor or oppose Question 2, the proposal to repeal the state’s affordable

housing law, or haven’t you thought about this enough to say?”




BALLOT3“And as you may know, Question 3 on the November ballot is a proposal to reduce the state sales tax from 6 point two-five percent to 3 percent. Do you favor or oppose ballot Question 3, the proposal to reduce the statesales tax from 6 point two-five percent to 3 percent, or haven’t you thought about this enough to say?”






10

CCCHAR “Let’s turn back to the election for Governor. I'm going to read you a few phrases which describe thecandidates running for Governor, and for each one, tell me who you think that phrase best describes,regardless of who you are voting for. Please feel free to name a candidate even if you may not be voting for that person.”

ROTATE CCHAR1 TO CCHAR3

CCHAR1“Which candidate do you think is the strongest leader?” READ LIST IF NECESSARY

1 CHARLIE BAKER 2 DEVAL PATRICK 3 TIM CAHILL4 JILL STEIN5 SOMEONE ELSE

97 NONE98 DK / NOT SURE

99 NA / REFUSED

CCHAR2“Which candidate do you think best understands people like me?” READ LIST IF NECESSARY

CCHAR3“Which candidate do you think is most likable?” READ LIST IF NECESSARY

VOTEMOT“Think for a minute about political incumbents, the people in Washington and Massachusetts who arecurrently in office. Overall, do you trust current political incumbents to provide leadership in Washingtonand Massachusetts or do you think political incumbents in Washington and Massachusetts need to be replaced by a new crop of leaders?” ROTATE RESPONSES

1 TRUST CURRENT INCUMBENTS2 WANT NEW CROP OF LEADERS3 OTHER – IT DEPENDS ON THE PERSON

98 DK / NOT SURE – DO NOT PROBE* 99 NA / REFUSED



11

HOPE“Thinking about all of the elections in November, both in Massachusetts and in other parts of the country,how do you feel about what will happen in the November elections? Are you very excited … somewhatexcited … somewhat depressed … or very depressed?”

1 VERY EXCITED2 SOMEWHAT EXCITED

3 NEUTRAL - VOLUNTEERED4 SOMEWHAT DEPRESSED5 VERY DEPRESSED


D1“Now, a few final questions . . .”“What is the highest grade in school, or level of education that you've completed and got credit for ...”[READ RESPONSES]

1 “Eighth grade or less,2 Some high school,3 High school graduate, (INCLUDES G.E.D.)4 Technical school,5 Some college,6 College graduate,7 Or postgraduate work?”

98 DK (DO NOT PROBE)* 99 NA / REFUSED

D2“GENERALLY SPEAKING, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, an Independentor what?”

(IF REPUBLICAN): “Would you call yourself a STRONG Republican or a NOT VERY STRONGRepublican?”(IF DEMOCRAT): “Would you call yourself a STRONG Democrat or a NOT VERY STRONG Democrat?”(IF INDEPENDENT, NO PREFERENCE, OR OTHER): “Do you think of yourself as closer to theRepublican or to the Democratic party?”

1 STRONG DEMOCRAT2 NOT VERY STRONG DEMOCRAT3 INDEPENDENT, BUT CLOSER TO DEMOCRATS4 INDEPENDENT--CLOSER TO NEITHER 5 INDEPENDENT, BUT CLOSER TO REPUBLICANS6 NOT VERY STRONG REPUBLICAN7 STRONG REPUBLICAN8 OTHER PARTY

* 99 DK / NA / REFUSED



12

VOTEHIST"Now, please think about elections you have voted in over the last five years . . . including local, state, andnational elections. Would you say you have voted for more Democrats . . . more Republicans . . . or that youhave voted for almost exactly the same number of each?"

IF DEMOCRATS--"Have you voted only for Democrats, mostly for Democrats, or for slightly moreDemocrats than Republicans?"

IF REPUBLICANS--"Have you voted only for Republicans, mostly for Republicans, or for slightly moreRepublicans than Democrats?"

1 ONLY DEMOCRATS2 MOSTLY DEMOCRATS3 SLIGHTLY MORE DEMOCRATS4 ALMOST SAME DEMOCRATS AND REPUBLICANS5 SLIGHTLY MORE REPUBLICANS6 MOSTLY REPUBLICANS7 ONLY REPUBLICANS

98 DK 99 NA

D3“What is your current age?”

RECORD EXACT NUMBER OF YEARS OLD -- E.G., 45

96 NINETY-SIX YEARS OF AGE OR OLDER

97 REFUSED98 DK

* 99 NA

D5“Are you of Hispanic or Spanish origin?"

1 YES2 NO

98 DON'T KNOW* 99 REFUSED



13

D6“Which of the following best describes your race? Is it ...White ... African-American ... Asian ... Native-American ... or some other race?”

1 WHITE (CAUCASIAN)2 BLACK (AFRICAN-AMERICAN)3 HISPANIC

4 ASIAN5 NATIVE AMERICAN6 OTHER - SPECIFY: ________________________________

98 DON'T KNOW* 99 NO ANSWER/REFUSED

D7“Including yourself, how many adults CURRENTLY live in your household?”

1 ONE - JUST RESPONDENT

2 TWO3 THREE4 FOUR 5 FIVE6 SIX7 SEVEN OR MORE

98 DK * 99 NA / REFUSED

D8“How much TOTAL income did you and your family receive in 2009, not just from wages or salaries butfrom ALL sources -- that is, before taxes and other deductions were made? Was it ….” (READCATEGORIES)

ANNUAL MONTHLY EQUIVALENT

1 Less than $15,000, LESS THAN $1,2502 $15,000 - $29,999, $1,250 - $2,4993 $30,000 - $44,999, $2,500 - $3,7494 $45,000 - $59,999, $3,750 - $4,9995 $60,000 - $74,999, $5,000 - $6,2496 $75,000 - $99,999, $6,250 - $8,3337 $100,000 to $149,999, or $8,334 - $12,49998 $150,000 and over?” $12,500 or more

* 97 REFUSED – PROBE: “Which of these categories is closest to your income …”* 98 DK – PROBE: “Which of these categories is closest to your income …”* 99 NA – PROBE: “Which of these categories is closest to your income …”



14

D9“Not counting business lines, extension phones, or cellular phones -- on how many different telephone NUMBERS can your household be reached?”

1 ONE2 TWO3 THREE

4 FOUR 5 FIVE6 SIX7 SEVEN OR MORE

98 DK * 99 NA / REFUSED

D10“Finally, would you be willing to be interviewed by a reporter to discuss your reactions to some of the topicswe've been talking about?”

1 YES “Could I have just your first name in case a reporter wants to call you?” ____________ 2 NO / DK (DO NOT PROBE)

99 NA / REFUSED

“Thank you for your time and participation. Your input has been very valuable. Goodbye.”



15

Tabular Results



16

“Do you think things in Massachusetts are generally going in the right direction or are they seriously off on the wrong track?”

Right Wrong Don't

Direction Track Know (N=)

MA LIKELY VOTERS 39% 55% 5% 515

Registered Democrat 62% 32% 7% 180Registered Undeclared 30% 64% 6% 265Registered Republican 15% 83% 1% 71

Democrat 65% 28% 7% 255Independent 15% 82% 3% 95Republican 11% 85% 4% 160

Core Republican 6% 92% 2% 142Swing Voter 23% 73% 5% 133Core Democrat 68% 25% 8% 240

Baker voter 8% 89% 3% 197Patrick voter 75% 17% 8% 219Cahill voter 21% 77% 2% 39Other/Undecided voter 21% 72% 7% 52

Excited about November 33% 63% 4% 290

Depressed about November 52% 43% 5% 139 Neither Excited/Depressed 42% 49% 10% 85

Extremely interested in election 28% 70% 2% 209Very interested 48% 45% 6% 237Somewhat/Not Very interested 42% 47% 12% 69

Definitely will vote 38% 57% 5% 453Will vote unless emergency 47% 44% 9% 62

Trust current incumbents 77% 20% 3% 144Want new crop of leaders 12% 85% 2% 251Other/Don't Know 50% 36% 14% 119

Approve of Patrick 76% 17% 6% 227Disapprove of Patrick 8% 91% 1% 253

Neither Approve/Disapprove 23% 46% 31% 34

Male 38% 59% 2% 254Female 40% 52% 8% 262

35 or under 41% 56% 3% 3935 to 49 33% 58% 9% 11350 to 64 47% 49% 4% 19465 and over 35% 59% 6% 155

High school or less 22% 76% 2% 77Some college 32% 65% 3% 96College graduate 39% 54% 7% 209

Post-graduate 55% 38% 7% 128

White 39% 56% 5% 455Minority 49% 44% 6% 50

Inside 128 49% 47% 4% 111128 to 495 37% 57% 7% 191Central MA 30% 64% 6% 91Western MA 43% 54% 3% 60Southern MA/Cape/Islands 40% 55% 4% 62



17

“GENERALLY SPEAKING, do you approve or disapprove of the way Deval Patrick is handling his job as governor?”

Approve Neutral Disapprove (N=)


Registered Democrat 68% 8% 24% 181Registered Undeclared 37% 6% 57% 266Registered Republican 12% 3% 85% 72




Excited about November 37% 3% 60% 291

Depressed about November 58% 9% 33% 140 Neither Excited/Depressed 48% 13% 39% 85






Male 39% 5% 56% 256Female 50% 7% 43% 262


High school or less 22% 8% 70% 77Some college 44% 8% 48% 98College graduate 45% 6% 48% 209

Post-graduate 56% 5% 39% 129

White 43% 6% 51% 458Minority 58% 15% 27% 50




18

“Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of the candidates in the Gubernatorial election. As I read each name, please say if you have afavorable or unfavorable opinion of this person -- or if you have never heard of him or her ... Governor Deval Patrick.”

Favorable Neutral Unfavorable DK (N=) MA LIKELY VOTERS 49% 6% 43% 2% 518

Registered Democrat 76% 7% 14% 2% 182Registered Undeclared 41% 6% 52% 1% 265Registered Republican 10% 6% 83% 1% 72

Democrat 82% 5% 11% 2% 256Independent 26% 14% 59% 1% 96Republican 11% 3% 85% 2% 161

Core Republican 6% 2% 91% 1% 144Swing Voter 31% 11% 57% 1% 133Core Democrat 85% 6% 7% 2% 242

Baker voter 9% 3% 88% 1% 198Patrick voter 91% 5% 2% 1% 221Cahill voter 34% 10% 54% 2% 39Other/Undecided voter 37% 21% 37% 5% 53

Excited about November 39% 3% 56% 1% 293

Depressed about November 68% 9% 22% 1% 139 Neither Excited/Depressed 52% 11% 34% 3% 85

Extremely interested in election 37% 5% 58% 0% 210Very interested 56% 6% 35% 2% 238Somewhat/Not Very interested 61% 11% 25% 3% 69

Definitely will vote 47% 6% 45% 1% 455Will vote unless emergency 64% 5% 29% 2% 63

Trust current incumbents 88% 3% 9% 0% 145Want new crop of leaders 19% 8% 72% 2% 252Other/Don't Know 65% 7% 24% 3% 121

Approve of Patrick 93% 3% 4% 0% 228Disapprove of Patrick 9% 7% 84% 1% 255

Neither Approve/Disapprove 60% 27% 4% 9% 34

Male 44% 6% 50% 1% 256Female 54% 7% 37% 2% 263

35 or under 55% 3% 41% 1% 3935 to 49 45% 1% 52% 2% 11450 to 64 55% 6% 39% 1% 19665 and over 45% 11% 41% 3% 155

High school or less 32% 3% 61% 4% 77Some college 46% 13% 41% 1% 97College graduate 49% 6% 43% 1% 210

Post-graduate 62% 4% 34% 0% 129

White 48% 5% 45% 1% 458Minority 62% 16% 20% 2% 50

Inside 128 61% 12% 26% 1% 111128 to 495 45% 6% 48% 1% 191Central MA 40% 2% 56% 3% 91Western MA 50% 6% 43% 2% 60Southern MA/Cape/Islands 53% 5% 40% 2% 65



19

“Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of the candidates in the Gubernatorial election. As I read each name, please say if you have afavorable or unfavorable opinion of this person -- or if you have never heard of him or her ... State Treasurer Tim Cahill.”













Male 23% 12% 53% 12% 256Female 25% 18% 39% 18% 264



Post-graduate 21% 15% 54% 9% 129

White 25% 14% 46% 14% 460Minority 19% 25% 34% 22% 50




20

“Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of the candidates in the Gubernatorial election. As I read each name, please say if you have afavorable or unfavorable opinion of this person -- or if you have never heard of him or her ... Republican gubernatorial candidate CharlieBaker.”


Registered Democrat 15% 6% 61% 18% 182Registered Undeclared 44% 10% 34% 12% 266

Registered Republican 73% 8% 10% 8% 72




Excited about November 50% 5% 30% 14% 293Depressed about November 15% 10% 65% 10% 140

Neither Excited/Depressed 32% 14% 34% 20% 85






Male 43% 8% 37% 11% 256Female 33% 8% 43% 16% 264


High school or less 55% 5% 18% 23% 77Some college 36% 11% 41% 12% 98

College graduate 37% 9% 41% 13% 210Post-graduate 31% 6% 53% 10% 129

White 40% 9% 39% 12% 460Minority 16% 0% 56% 28% 50




21

“Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of the candidates in the Gubernatorial election. As I read each name, please say if you have afavorable or unfavorable opinion of this person -- or if you have never heard of him or her ... Green Party gubernatorial candidate Jill Stein.”













Male 14% 12% 30% 44% 256Female 18% 9% 19% 54% 264



Post-graduate 21% 12% 27% 40% 129

White 16% 10% 25% 49% 460Minority 19% 15% 16% 50% 50




22

“Think for a minute about political incumbents, the people in Washington and Massachusetts who are currently in office. Overall, do youtrust current political incumbents to provide leadership in Washington and Massachusetts or do you think political incumbents in Washingtonand Massachusetts need to be replaced by a new crop of leaders?”

Trust Want New

Current Crop of Other/ Don’t

Incumbents Leaders Depends Know (N=) MA LIKELY VOTERS 28% 49% 19% 5% 519




Baker voter 6% 80% 13% 1% 198Patrick voter 54% 16% 24% 6% 221Cahill voter 15% 56% 27% 3% 39

Other/Undecided voter 13% 60% 12% 15% 53







Male 24% 56% 17% 4% 255Female 32% 42% 20% 5% 264


High school or less 13% 70% 12% 5% 77Some college 22% 60% 15% 4% 98College graduate 28% 47% 20% 5% 210Post-graduate 42% 31% 23% 4% 129

White 28% 49% 19% 4% 459Minority 32% 40% 20% 8% 50




23

“Thinking about all of the elections in November, both in Massachusetts and in other parts of the country, how do you feel about what willhappen in the November elections? Are you very excited … somewhat excited … somewhat depressed … or very depressed?”

Very Somewhat Somewhat Very Don't

Excited Excited Neutral Depressed Depressed Know (N=)

MA LIKELY VOTERS 16% 41% 14% 22% 5% 3% 518

Registered Democrat 7% 38% 14% 33% 6% 2% 181Registered Undeclared 18% 41% 15% 18% 5% 3% 266

Registered Republican 29% 45% 10% 11% 3% 2% 70

Democrat 7% 35% 13% 35% 8% 3% 257Independent 17% 45% 20% 12% 2% 3% 96Republican 29% 47% 12% 8% 2% 2% 159

Core Republican 39% 42% 9% 7% 2% 2% 142Swing Voter 10% 51% 21% 12% 2% 4% 134Core Democrat 6% 34% 13% 37% 8% 2% 242

Baker voter 32% 46% 10% 9% 1% 2% 197Patrick voter 6% 37% 13% 32% 8% 3% 221Cahill voter 16% 38% 27% 18% 0% 2% 39Other/Undecided voter 1% 39% 13% 34% 5% 7% 53

Extremely interested in election 28% 40% 10% 16% 3% 3% 210Very interested 10% 43% 16% 24% 5% 2% 238Somewhat/Not Very interested 1% 34% 18% 35% 7% 4% 69

Definitely will vote 18% 40% 13% 22% 4% 3% 454Will vote unless emergency 4% 44% 16% 23% 11% 2% 63

Trust current incumbents 9% 36% 13% 32% 7% 3% 144Want new crop of leaders 25% 44% 8% 19% 2% 2% 252Other/Don't Know 6% 40% 25% 17% 9% 3% 121

Approve of Patrick 7% 40% 15% 29% 7% 3% 228Disapprove of Patrick 26% 42% 11% 15% 3% 2% 254

Neither Approve/Disapprove 0% 30% 26% 32% 5% 7% 34

Male 18% 40% 15% 20% 5% 2% 254Female 14% 41% 13% 25% 5% 3% 263

35 or under 10% 58% 7% 24% 2% 0% 3935 to 49 18% 44% 11% 22% 2% 2% 11450 to 64 14% 39% 17% 24% 5% 2% 19765 and over 18% 35% 14% 21% 6% 5% 155

High school or less 19% 34% 23% 21% 1% 2% 77Some college 12% 44% 14% 18% 9% 3% 98College graduate 19% 42% 14% 19% 3% 3% 210Post-graduate 12% 39% 9% 31% 7% 3% 128

White 17% 40% 14% 21% 5% 3% 459

Minority 8% 46% 8% 34% 2% 1% 50

Inside 128 15% 37% 16% 24% 6% 2% 112128 to 495 17% 44% 12% 21% 3% 3% 190Central MA 20% 43% 11% 17% 5% 4% 91Western MA 15% 38% 19% 23% 2% 3% 60Southern MA/Cape/Islands 10% 37% 13% 30% 8% 3% 64



24

“And as you know, the general election for Governor of Massachusetts and other offices is being held in November 2010. How interestedwould you say you are in the 2010 general election ... extremely interested ... very interested ... somewhat interested ... or not veryinterested?”

Extremely Very Somewhat Not Very

Interested Interested Interested Interested (N=) ALL MA ADULTS 41% 46% 12% 2% 519

Registered Democrat 35% 51% 13% 1% 181

Registered Undeclared 40% 45% 12% 3% 266Registered Republican 56% 35% 8% 1% 72










Male 47% 42% 9% 2% 256Female 35% 50% 14% 1% 263


High school or less 37% 47% 15% 1% 77Some college 43% 47% 10% 0% 98College graduate 43% 42% 13% 3% 210Post graduate 39% 50% 9% 2% 129

White 42% 45% 11% 2% 459Minority 27% 52% 21% 0% 50




25

"Which of the following statements best describes you ... I will probably not vote in the November general election, I may vote in the November general election, unless some emergency comes up, I will vote in the November general election, I will definitely vote in the November general election, or I just don't know at this time."

Will Vote Will

Unless Definitely

Emergency Vote (N=) ALL MA ADULTS 12% 88% 519

Registered Democrat 11% 89% 182Registered Undeclared 14% 86% 266Registered Republican 8% 92% 72

Democrat 15% 85% 257Independent 12% 88% 96Republican 10% 90% 161

Core Republican 7% 93% 144Swing Voter 14% 86% 134Core Democrat 14% 86% 242

Baker voter 9% 91% 198Patrick voter 16% 84% 221Cahill voter 8% 92% 39

Other/Undecided voter 14% 86% 53

Excited about November 10% 90% 293Depressed about November 16% 84% 140

Neither Excited/Depressed 13% 87% 85

Extremely interested in election 3% 97% 211Very interested 14% 86% 238Somewhat/Not Very interested 33% 67% 69

Trust current incumbents 14% 86% 145Want new crop of leaders 11% 89% 253Other/Don't Know 13% 87% 121

Approve of Patrick 16% 84% 229Disapprove of Patrick 9% 91% 255

Neither Approve/Disapprove 14% 86% 34

Male 11% 89% 256Female 14% 86% 264

35 or under 10% 90% 3935 to 49 18% 82% 11450 to 64 13% 87% 19765 and over 8% 92% 155

High school or less 11% 89% 77Some college 16% 84% 98College graduate 13% 87% 210

Post-graduate 11% 89% 129

White 12% 88% 460Minority 14% 86% 50

Inside 128 12% 88% 112128 to 495 13% 87% 191Central MA 13% 87% 91Western MA 13% 87% 60Southern MA/Cape/Islands 10% 90% 65



26

“Have you definitely decided who you will vote for in the election for Massachusetts governor in 2010 … are you leaning toward someone …or have you considered some candidates but are still trying to decide?”

Def. Leaning Still

Decided Toward Trying To

Vote Someone Decide (N=)


Registered Democrat 64% 12% 23% 182

Registered Undeclared 52% 22% 26% 265Registered Republican 70% 14% 16% 71




Excited about November 61% 18% 20% 291Depressed about November 56% 17% 27% 139

Neither Excited/Depressed 55% 17% 28% 85






Male 63% 19% 19% 254Female 55% 16% 28% 264


High school or less 49% 13% 38% 77

Some college 58% 22% 21% 98College graduate 60% 19% 21% 210Post-graduate 65% 14% 21% 128

White 58% 18% 23% 458Minority 67% 10% 23% 50




27

“If the 2010 Massachusetts gubernatorial election was being held TODAY and the candidates are Charlie Baker, the Republican … DevalPatrick, the Democrat … Tim Cahill, the Independent … and Jill Stein, the Green-Rainbow candidate, who would you vote for ... CharlieBaker … Deval Patrick … Tim Cahill … or Jill Stein?”

Don't

Baker Patrick Cahill Stein Other Know (N=)

MA LIKELY VOTERS 39% 43% 8% 2% 1% 8% 512

Registered Democrat 9% 71% 7% 3% 0% 10% 181

Registered Undeclared 47% 33% 9% 2% 2% 7% 260Registered Republican 82% 10% 4% 0% 0% 4% 72



Excited about November 53% 33% 7% 1% 0% 6% 291Depressed about November 15% 65% 5% 6% 1% 8% 137

Neither Excited/Depressed 29% 44% 14% 0% 1% 12% 82






Male 46% 37% 9% 2% 1% 5% 250Female 32% 49% 6% 3% 1% 10% 262


High school or less 53% 22% 15% 2% 1% 7% 74Some college 37% 44% 8% 1% 1% 8% 97College graduate 40% 42% 7% 3% 1% 7% 208Post-graduate 31% 58% 3% 2% 0% 6% 129

White 41% 42% 8% 1% 1% 7% 454

Minority 13% 62% 1% 11% 2% 10% 50




28

“Who would your second choice be?”

No Second Don't

Baker Patrick Cahill Stein Other Choice Know (N=)

MA LIKELY VOTERS 8% 6% 25% 13% 1% 44% 3% 472

Registered Democrat 8% 5% 24% 21% 0% 40% 2% 162Registered Undeclared 9% 8% 24% 10% 1% 44% 3% 242Registered Republican 5% 4% 28% 5% 2% 53% 2% 69

Democrat 10% 4% 25% 21% 1% 37% 3% 238Independent 6% 13% 16% 6% 1% 55% 3% 75Republican 6% 6% 30% 5% 2% 49% 2% 154

Core Republican 4% 5% 25% 6% 2% 55% 3% 137Swing Voter 11% 13% 29% 4% 2% 39% 2% 107Core Democrat 9% 4% 23% 22% 0% 39% 3% 228

Baker voter 1% 9% 29% 4% 2% 52% 2% 198Patrick voter 8% 0% 27% 22% 0% 40% 3% 220Cahill voter 46% 22% 0% 13% 1% 16% 2% 39Other/Undecided voter 0% 16% 12% 0% 0% 64% 8% 15

Excited about November 6% 6% 25% 9% 1% 50% 3% 273

Depressed about November 6% 3% 25% 24% 1% 38% 2% 125 Neither Excited/Depressed 17% 11% 25% 11% 1% 32% 4% 72

Extremely interested in election 8% 4% 26% 12% 2% 48% 1% 194Very interested 8% 7% 25% 16% 1% 39% 4% 217Somewhat/Not Very interested 9% 10% 22% 7% 0% 49% 4% 61

Definitely will vote 8% 6% 26% 14% 1% 43% 2% 416Will vote unless emergency 8% 5% 17% 7% 0% 54% 9% 57

Trust current incumbents 6% 3% 23% 25% 0% 39% 4% 137Want new crop of leaders 9% 8% 22% 6% 2% 50% 3% 230Other/Don't Know 9% 5% 34% 13% 0% 38% 1% 105

Approve of Patrick 6% 5% 24% 20% 0% 41% 3% 209Disapprove of Patrick 9% 7% 25% 6% 2% 48% 3% 236

Neither Approve/Disapprove 11% 9% 32% 17% 0% 29% 2% 25

Male 8% 6% 26% 13% 1% 45% 1% 236Female 8% 6% 24% 13% 1% 43% 4% 237

35 or under 0% 9% 34% 8% 3% 40% 6% 3735 to 49 12% 5% 24% 12% 0% 42% 6% 10850 to 64 5% 4% 33% 18% 2% 38% 0% 17965 and over 9% 9% 14% 9% 0% 55% 3% 138

High school or less 16% 12% 20% 2% 5% 38% 7% 69Some college 7% 7% 24% 8% 1% 50% 3% 89College graduate 7% 6% 27% 13% 1% 45% 1% 194

Post-graduate 4% 2% 25% 24% 0% 41% 4% 120

White 8% 6% 26% 13% 1% 42% 3% 422Minority 4% 5% 18% 18% 0% 55% 0% 45

Inside 128 12% 8% 21% 14% 0% 43% 2% 101128 to 495 5% 6% 30% 11% 2% 45% 1% 173Central MA 6% 5% 27% 13% 1% 45% 3% 85Western MA 11% 10% 16% 18% 1% 40% 5% 54Southern MA/Cape/Islands 10% 3% 22% 14% 0% 46% 6% 60



29

“If the 2010 election for Massachusetts state Treasurer was being held TODAY and the candidates are Karyn Polito, the Republican andSteve Grossman, the Democrat, who would you vote for ... Karyn Polito … or Steve Grossman?”

Don't

Polito Grossman Other Know (N=)

MA LIKELY VOTERS 37% 39% 1% 23% 515







Extremely interested in election 51% 31% 1% 17% 210

Very interested 29% 46% 1% 24% 235Somewhat/Not Very interested 21% 41% 0% 38% 69





Male 45% 36% 1% 17% 251Female 29% 42% 0% 28% 263



White 39% 37% 1% 23% 457Minority 15% 63% 2% 20% 50




30

“And if the 2010 election for Massachusetts state Auditor was being held TODAY and the candidates are Mary Connaughton, the Republicanand Suzanne Bump, the Democrat, who would you vote for ... Mary Connaughton … or Suzanne Bump”

Conn- Don't

aughton Bump Other Know (N=)














Male 38% 29% 3% 30% 250Female 26% 37% 1% 36% 259



White 34% 30% 2% 34% 452Minority 11% 64% 3% 22% 49




31

“And if the 2010 election for Massachusetts Attorney General was being held TODAY and the candidates are James McKenna, theRepublican, and Martha Coakley, the Democrat, who would you vote for ... James McKenna ... or Martha Coakley?”

Don't

McKenna Coakley Other Know (N=)














Male 43% 48% 2% 7% 251Female 27% 62% 1% 9% 263



White 36% 55% 1% 8% 456Minority 20% 68% 2% 9% 50




32

"Please think about the November election for your representative to the U.S. House of Representatives. Do you plan to vote for theDemocratic or Republican candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives ... or do you plan to skip the election for U.S. House of Representatives this time?"

Don't

GOP DEM Other Know (N=)













Male 39% 44% 3% 13% 248Female 27% 51% 2% 20% 256



White 35% 45% 3% 18% 447

Minority 15% 73% 5% 7% 48




33

"And turning to the November election for your representative for the Massachusetts House of Representatives. Do you plan to vote for theDemocratic or Republican candidate for the Massachusetts House of Representatives ... or do you plan to skip the election for MassachusettsHouse of Representatives this time?"

Don't

GOP DEM Other Know (N=)













Male 41% 41% 2% 16% 245Female 29% 52% 1% 19% 256



White 37% 44% 1% 18% 449

Minority 12% 74% 5% 9% 45




34

“As you may know, Question 1 on the November ballot is a proposal to eliminate sales tax on alcohol sold in Massachusetts. Do you favor oroppose ballot Question 1, the proposal to eliminate the sales tax on alcohol sold in Massachusetts, or haven’t you thought about this enough tosay?”

Strongly Somewhat Somewhat Strongly Don't

Favor Favor Oppose Oppose Know (N=)

MA LIKELY VOTERS 29% 8% 14% 38% 11% 518

Registered Democrat 20% 6% 15% 44% 14% 182

Registered Undeclared 31% 9% 14% 36% 10% 264Registered Republican 43% 10% 13% 27% 8% 72

Democrat 14% 7% 16% 50% 13% 257Independent 48% 4% 13% 27% 8% 94Republican 42% 12% 12% 23% 10% 161

Core Republican 49% 8% 13% 22% 8% 144Swing Voter 35% 10% 13% 31% 11% 132Core Democrat 14% 7% 16% 50% 13% 242

Baker voter 51% 10% 10% 21% 8% 198Patrick voter 11% 7% 16% 52% 13% 221Cahill voter 28% 12% 10% 39% 12% 39Other/Undecided voter 23% 6% 23% 35% 13% 53

Excited about November 35% 9% 13% 35% 9% 293Depressed about November 19% 8% 14% 47% 13% 140

Neither Excited/Depressed 23% 8% 21% 33% 15% 83

Extremely interested in election 41% 7% 9% 33% 10% 211Very interested 23% 8% 19% 41% 10% 237Somewhat/Not Very interested 12% 13% 15% 43% 17% 69

Definitely will vote 31% 8% 13% 38% 10% 454Will vote unless emergency 13% 13% 21% 36% 18% 64

Trust current incumbents 11% 3% 17% 59% 10% 145Want new crop of leaders 42% 10% 11% 26% 10% 252Other/Don't Know 22% 10% 18% 36% 14% 121

Approve of Patrick 12% 8% 18% 49% 13% 229Disapprove of Patrick 46% 9% 10% 29% 6% 253

Neither Approve/Disapprove 16% 2% 20% 28% 34% 34

Male 33% 11% 12% 36% 8% 254Female 25% 5% 16% 39% 14% 264

35 or under 34% 22% 16% 21% 7% 3935 to 49 23% 10% 12% 45% 10% 11450 to 64 31% 6% 16% 40% 8% 19565 and over 27% 6% 15% 36% 17% 155

High school or less 38% 9% 15% 27% 12% 75

Some college 29% 7% 18% 32% 14% 98College graduate 32% 11% 13% 36% 9% 210Post-graduate 18% 5% 14% 50% 13% 129

White 29% 8% 14% 39% 10% 460Minority 23% 12% 19% 29% 18% 50

Inside 128 25% 11% 15% 40% 9% 112128 to 495 32% 6% 12% 38% 12% 189Central MA 31% 9% 12% 38% 11% 91Western MA 22% 8% 13% 40% 16% 60Southern MA/Cape/Islands 28% 10% 24% 30% 8% 65



35

“As you may know, Question 2 on the November ballot is a proposal that would repeal the state's affordable housing law. Do you favor or oppose Question 2, the proposal to repeal the state's affordable housing law, or haven't you thought about this enough to say?”



MA LIKELY VOTERS 17% 7% 15% 23% 38% 516

Registered Democrat 12% 2% 14% 33% 39% 180Registered Undeclared 17% 10% 14% 19% 39% 264

Registered Republican 27% 5% 20% 15% 33% 72











Male 21% 6% 15% 23% 34% 254Female 13% 7% 15% 24% 42% 262


High school or less 24% 5% 3% 21% 47% 75Some college 16% 13% 13% 18% 40% 98

College graduate 15% 5% 17% 24% 40% 210Post-graduate 16% 6% 21% 29% 28% 128

White 17% 7% 15% 23% 37% 459Minority 8% 8% 11% 26% 47% 49




36

“And as you may know, Question 3 on the November ballot is a proposal to reduce the state sales tax from 6 point two-five percent to 3 percent. Do you favor or oppose ballot Question 3, the proposal to reduce the state sales tax from 6 point two-five percent to 3 percent, or haven’t you thought about this enough to say?”



MA LIKELY VOTERS 35% 8% 12% 38% 7% 518

Registered Democrat 20% 6% 12% 53% 9% 182

Registered Undeclared 39% 8% 13% 35% 4% 264Registered Republican 59% 10% 12% 11% 8% 72











Male 42% 7% 11% 36% 4% 254Female 28% 9% 13% 41% 9% 264


High school or less 45% 6% 16% 28% 4% 75

Some college 37% 12% 13% 31% 7% 98College graduate 36% 9% 10% 39% 6% 210Post-graduate 27% 3% 13% 48% 8% 129

White 35% 8% 12% 40% 6% 460Minority 37% 8% 20% 26% 10% 50




37

“Which candidate do you think is the strongest leader?”

Don't

Baker Patrick Cahill Other Know (N=)

MA LIKELY VOTERS 40% 42% 5% 1% 12% 496

Registered Democrat 16% 67% 4% 0% 12% 172Registered Undeclared 47% 33% 6% 1% 13% 257Registered Republican 78% 11% 4% 0% 8% 67




Excited about November 50% 32% 6% 1% 11% 290

Depressed about November 19% 66% 3% 0% 12% 124 Neither Excited/Depressed 40% 40% 5% 0% 15% 80






Male 50% 35% 5% 1% 9% 247Female 31% 48% 5% 0% 16% 249


High school or less 50% 28% 8% 0% 14% 72Some college 39% 42% 4% 1% 14% 96College graduate 40% 40% 7% 1% 12% 198

Post-graduate 37% 53% 1% 0% 9% 125

White 42% 41% 5% 1% 11% 440Minority 17% 52% 9% 3% 19% 46




38

“Which candidate do you think best understands people like me?”

Don't


MA LIKELY VOTERS 32% 36% 13% 6% 1% 12% 489

Registered Democrat 9% 61% 13% 7% 0% 10% 172Registered Undeclared 38% 27% 13% 6% 1% 15% 250Registered Republican 73% 4% 12% 3% 0% 7% 67




Excited about November 47% 28% 11% 3% 1% 11% 290

Depressed about November 9% 50% 15% 15% 1% 10% 126 Neither Excited/Depressed 15% 42% 18% 3% 0% 22% 73






Male 38% 34% 13% 5% 1% 10% 240Female 27% 37% 13% 7% 1% 15% 250


High school or less 42% 23% 15% 6% 0% 13% 70Some college 30% 38% 12% 1% 3% 16% 95College graduate 34% 34% 15% 6% 0% 11% 199

Post-graduate 26% 47% 10% 8% 0% 8% 121

White 34% 35% 14% 5% 0% 11% 435Minority 14% 51% 5% 14% 3% 14% 47




39

“Which candidate do you think is most likable?”

Don't


MA LIKELY VOTERS 25% 44% 14% 4% 0% 13% 485

Registered Democrat 12% 61% 14% 5% 0% 8% 171Registered Undeclared 27% 37% 17% 4% 0% 16% 250Registered Republican 49% 27% 9% 4% 0% 11% 65




Excited about November 33% 39% 14% 3% 0% 11% 278

Depressed about November 13% 56% 12% 7% 0% 11% 129 Neither Excited/Depressed 15% 43% 19% 3% 0% 20% 77






Male 27% 42% 16% 3% 0% 13% 237Female 23% 46% 13% 5% 0% 13% 248


High school or less 41% 26% 18% 4% 1% 10% 71Some college 23% 49% 13% 2% 0% 12% 97College graduate 21% 46% 16% 5% 0% 11% 193

Post-graduate 22% 49% 10% 4% 0% 15% 120

White 26% 43% 15% 3% 0% 13% 427Minority 17% 54% 11% 11% 0% 7% 50




40

"Please think about the November election for your representative to the U.S. House of Representatives. Do you plan to vote for Sean Bielat(BEE - lat), the Republican ... Barney Frank, the Democrat ... some other candidate ... or do you plan to skip the election for U.S. House of Representatives this time?”

Bielat Frank Other DK (N=) 4TH CD LIKELY VOTERS 33% 46% 10% 11% 385







Definitely will vote 34% 43% 10% 12% 325

Will vote unless emergency 24% 59% 13% 4% 60



Male 41% 39% 11% 9% 182Female 26% 51% 10% 13% 203




"Please think about the November election for your representative to the U.S. House of Representatives. Do you plan to vote for JeffreyPerry, the Republican ... William Keating, the Democrat ... Maryanne Lewis, the independent candidate ... James Sheets, the other independent candidate ... some other candidate ... or do you plan to skip the election for U.S. House of Representatives this time?"

Perry Keating Lewis Sheets Other DK (N=) 10TH CD LIKELY VOTERS 33% 37% 3% 2% 3% 23% 349

Registered Democrat 3% 71% 2% 2% 2% 20% 95Registered Undeclared 35% 32% 3% 1% 2% 26% 194

Registered Republican 73% 2% 0% 4% 4% 16% 60


Excited about November 46% 25% 3% 3% 1% 23% 209Depressed about November 15% 63% 4% 0% 4% 14% 86

Neither Excited/Depressed 9% 47% 0% 1% 6% 37% 52


Definitely will vote 35% 38% 2% 2% 3% 21% 309

Will vote unless emergency 19% 33% 6% 3% 0% 39% 40



Male 37% 38% 1% 2% 1% 21% 182Female 28% 37% 4% 2% 4% 25% 168


boston globe poll on key political races in mass

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