boston region - university of minnesota law school · regionally, about 350,000 people live in...

BOSTON REGION

Boston is one of the most affluent major metropolitan regions in the nation – less than 22 percent of its

residents are low‐income. Boston’s neighborhoods are relatively stable compared to many other

metropolitan areas, with under 20 percent of population living in a census tract experiencing strong

economic change. Regionally, about 350,000 people live in economically expanding areas while about

450,000 live in economically declining areas, with low‐income residents are about twice as likely to live

in the declining neighborhoods.

With that said, neighborhood change in Boston is unusual in several respects. First, the population of all

racial groups is increasing, on net, in economically expanding areas. In other words, unlike many metros,

black and Hispanic residents are not experiencing net displacement at all. Second, economically

declining areas appear with roughly the same frequency in both the city and its suburbs.

Neighborhoods with displacement and concentration are scattered throughout the region. In Boston

proper, several significant areas of displacement exist in the vicinity of the Port and South Boston, with

outright growth in Chinatown and South End.

Regional Total Population: 4,728,844

Regional Low‐Income Population: 1,008,646

Regional Nonwhite Population: 1,303,383

Central City Population: 658,291

Central City Low‐Income Population: 229,891

Central City Nonwhite Population: 359,913

NET DISPLACEMENT (Low‐Income Change in Tracts with Strong Expansion, 2000‐2016)

Central City: ‐1,907

Suburbs: ‐10,800

NET CONCENTRATION (Low‐Income Change in Tracts with Strong Decline, 2000‐2016)

Central City: 7,423

Suburbs: 43,653

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DETAILS ON TABLES

The following tables depict aggregated population and housing change in two categories of neighborhoods across the metropolitan area, its central cities, and its suburbs. The categories are:

• Economically expanding neighborhoods, which are those experiencing the kind of population changes associated with growth and displacement. These are neighborhoods where the low-income* share of population has fallen since 2000 (indicating that an area has grown less poor overall) and the absolute number of non-low-income residents has grown since 2000 (indicating that middle-income residents see the area as an attractive place to live).

• Economically declining neighborhoods, which are those experiencing the kind of population changes associated with abandonment and poverty concentration. These are neighborhoods where the low-income share of population has grown since 2000 (indicating that an area has more less poor overall) and the absolute number of non-low-income residents has fallen since 2000 (indicating that middle-income residents do not see the area as an attractive place to live).

Two variants of this measure exist, and a separate table is provided for each. They are:

• In the upper set of tables, a strong, narrow measure, which only includes census tracts that have a change of +/-5 percent or greater in low-income population share, and a change of +/-10 percent for non-low-income population. This approach classifies fewer neighborhoods overall, excluding areas with only small changes in their income profile. This is the more robust and preferred measure. It is also the measure used in the accompanying maps.

• In the lower set of tables, a weak, broad measure, which includes all census tracts with any change that meet the criteria for the two categories above, with no cutoffs for scale. This approach classifies more neighborhoods overall, but is noisier, because it includes tracts with very small population changes. In addition, because this report relies on American Community Survey sampling data with margins of error, this measure is more likely to include erroneously classified tracts. However, this broad measure can provide a useful outer estimate of the scale of neighborhood economic expansion and decline.

Three sets of tables are provided. They are:

• Figures for the entire metropolitan region, aggregating central cities and suburbs into one set of tables. • Figures for central cities. • Figures for suburban areas, defined as any area in the metropolitan region not included in a central city.

This includes incorporated and unincorporated communities.

Each table depicts the number of people in each of the two neighborhood categories, both overall and in various population subsets. It also shows the number of housing units of various types in each neighborhood category.

• 2016 Share indicates what share of the regional, city, or suburban population of a given group live in expanding or declining tracts. The box is shaded in accordance with the size of the share.

• 2016 Total indicates the absolute number of individuals in a given group that live in expanding or declining census tracts.

• Net Change since 2000 indicates the change of population of a subgroup in expanding or declining tracts since 2000, both in percentage and in absolute terms. These have been colored to indicate the type of change. In economically expanding tracts, green indicates net growth while blue indicates net displacement. In economically declining tracts, red indicates net poverty concentration while purple indicates net abandonment. Darker shades indicate larger percentage changes.

* For the purposes of this report, “low-income” is classified as individuals at 200 percent of poverty line or less.

2

DETAILS ON MAPS

Neighborhood change has also been mapped by individual census tracts, incorporating the same data used to create the tables above.

The map incorporates the strong measure of neighborhood change used to create the tables. In the maps, tracts have been subdivided into four categories:

• Economically expanding areas with low-income displacement, indicated in blue, where a neighborhood’s income profile is improving while low-income population declines on net. These are typically places undergoing changes traditionally associated with gentrification, in which economic pressures push out lower incomes while higher income residents arrive.

• Economically expanding areas with overall growth, indicated in green, where a neighborhood’s income profile is improving while low-income population increases on net. These are typically places with significant new housing construction, where residents across the income spectrum are arriving.

• Economically declining areas with abandonment, indicated in purple, where a neighborhood’s income profile is worsening while low-income population declines on net. These are typically places experiencing the worst neighborhood economic decline, with people across the income spectrum leaving and outright depopulation occurring.

• Economically declining areas with poverty concentration, indicated in red, where a neighborhood’s income profile is worsening while low-income population increases on net. These are typically places where higher-income flight and eroding housing stocks are causing rapid demographic and economic transition, contributing to the impoverishment of the area.

The categories are also shaded to indicate the scale of low-income population change within the census tracts.

The maps allow intra-regional comparisons of observed neighborhood change. However, because these classifications have been made using American Community Survey data with margins of error, precise measures are not possible and it is likely that some individual tracts are erroneously classified. As a consequence, readers are advised to focus more on clusters of tracts undergoing similar changes rather than individual outliers, particularly outliers with smaller-scale changes.

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7.4% 348,243 16.6% +49,460 9.5% 447,741 -1.3% -5,9428.5% 86,064 -12.9% -12,707 16.9% 170,821 42.7% +51,0769.7% 45,555 -6.0% -2,893 18.0% 84,027 55.4% +29,9429.5% 21,427 -8.4% -1,969 17.3% 39,112 45.7% +12,272

12.2% 606 -4.1% -26 15.5% 765 -43.0% -5786.9% 23,838 63.5% +9,254 12.6% 43,614 37.2% +11,829

11.2% 38,193 16.7% +5,472 16.9% 57,604 21.5% +10,20113.5% 65,383 37.5% +17,831 17.5% 84,728 65.6% +33,5716.1% 210,296 8.4% +16,243 7.2% 248,041 -18.8% -57,3797.0% 104,336 82.7% +47,242 6.4% 94,683 22.3% +17,2887.8% 139,848 1.1% +1,495 11.2% 199,353 -8.1% -17,4766.8% 36,676 -3.9% -1,489 9.3% 49,913 -11.9% -6,7549.7% 5,756 -22.5% -1,669 20.4% 12,121 55.1% +4,3086.5% 30,920 0.6% +180 7.9% 37,792 -22.6% -11,0629.9% 4,109 -18.1% -909 21.4% 8,885 58.7% +3,2886.9% 66,768 -8.1% -5,866 9.5% 92,318 -13.0% -13,8258.8% 103,264 26.0% +21,337 11.5% 135,195 3.8% +4,9577.1% 134,311 20.6% +22,901 8.6% 163,402 0.8% +1,3516.5% 43,900 30.2% +10,175 8.4% 56,826 2.6% +1,4237.0% 272,175 13.2% +31,780 8.7% 339,631 -7.5% -27,3459.1% 76,068 30.2% +17,666 12.9% 108,110 24.7% +21,4136.1% 67,125 25.1% +13,455 7.0% 76,694 -4.6% -3,7079.7% 67,002 11.1% +6,720 13.3% 91,813 -0.6% -5338.3% 10,320 60.2% +3,878 10.9% 13,623 63.6% +5,297

30.3% 1,431,446 12.2% +155,486 30.0% 1,417,813 0.8% +11,82225.7% 258,817 -6.4% -17,796 40.2% 405,164 36.4% +108,06327.0% 126,089 3.7% +4,510 39.9% 186,391 46.2% +58,92727.9% 62,822 4.5% +2,689 39.4% 88,930 43.1% +26,77429.1% 1,442 -36.2% -819 42.7% 2,112 -27.2% -78828.6% 98,936 79.4% +43,780 30.7% 106,257 47.1% +34,03932.7% 111,581 25.9% +22,953 41.2% 140,448 40.9% +40,74531.7% 153,699 53.1% +53,276 36.9% 179,168 72.5% +75,32630.0% 1,028,084 3.2% +31,725 27.7% 948,730 -12.4% -133,94532.8% 487,653 48.8% +159,834 25.2% 374,428 24.0% +72,42029.1% 518,708 -2.6% -14,069 33.4% 595,363 -7.0% -45,05030.4% 163,827 -1.2% -2,043 29.3% 157,978 -10.0% -17,52326.0% 15,421 -10.2% -1,751 42.6% 25,232 44.3% +7,75231.0% 148,406 -0.2% -292 27.7% 132,746 -16.0% -25,27526.8% 11,130 -0.5% -61 43.4% 18,075 51.4% +6,13430.1% 293,822 -4.2% -12,872 29.6% 288,738 -10.6% -34,29229.8% 349,636 14.4% +43,939 31.9% 374,840 2.3% +8,52030.8% 585,695 14.9% +75,892 29.1% 553,550 3.1% +16,85529.8% 202,293 30.7% +47,541 29.6% 200,685 12.6% +22,39130.3% 1,180,971 8.0% +87,651 29.2% 1,136,763 -4.6% -54,91730.0% 250,475 37.1% +67,822 33.6% 281,050 31.2% +66,79531.0% 339,438 14.5% +43,033 27.5% 300,698 -0.7% -2,07029.8% 205,857 7.8% +14,981 34.9% 240,982 -0.6% -1,44131.1% 38,739 62.8% +14,941 32.4% 40,356 87.6% +18,840

*The figures in the lower set of tables may include many neighborhoods with very sl ight demographic changes, and are especially sensitive to sampling error. These tables are best understood as depicting an aggressive outer estimate of population shifts, as compared to the estimates in the upper set of tables, which are more robustly observed.

Data: U.S. Census.

Owner Units Owner UnitsRenter Units Renter UnitsVacant Units Vacant Units

Seniors (65 and up) Seniors (65 and up)U.S.-Born U.S.-Born

Foreign-Born Foreign-Born

Children (Under 18) Children (Under 18)Young Adults (18-34) Young Adults (18-34)

Adults (35 to 64) Adults (35 to 64)

Families in Poverty Families in PovertyNon-Poor Families Non-Poor Families

Single Mothers Single Mothers

College-Educated College-EducatedNon-College Non-College

Families Families

Black BlackHispanic Hispanic

White White

Extreme Poverty Extreme PovertyAmerican Indian American Indian

Asian Asian

TOTAL TOTALLow-Income Low-Income

Poverty Poverty

Population Change by Subgroup in Neighborhoods with Any Indicators of Economic Expansion*

Population Change by Subgroup in Neighborhoods with Any Indicators of Economic Decline*

(Boston Metro) (Boston Metro)

2016 Share 2016 Total Net Change Since 2000 2016 Share 2016 Total Net Change Since 2000









Families Families


White White


Asian Asian


Poverty Poverty


TABLES FOR METROPOLITAN AREA - Boston Region

ECONOMICALLY EXPANDING NEIGHBORHOODS ECONOMICALLY DECLINING NEIGHBORHOODS

Population Change by Subgroup in Neighborhoods Experiencing Strong Economic Expansion

Population Change by Subgroup in Neighborhoods Experiencing Strong Economic Decline

(Boston Metro) (Boston Metro)

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18.7% 122,950 24.6% +24,244 11.0% 72,498 -2.6% -1,90415.5% 35,612 -5.1% -1,907 16.8% 38,604 23.8% +7,42315.5% 20,159 3.7% +728 17.4% 22,605 37.5% +6,16514.6% 9,981 -1.3% -128 17.6% 12,089 30.9% +2,85125.6% 328 62.4% +126 9.5% 122 -65.0% -22717.7% 10,810 53.5% +3,767 12.7% 7,759 35.7% +2,04319.8% 29,645 19.7% +4,889 17.8% 26,719 -9.7% -2,86216.7% 20,928 21.7% +3,730 13.5% 16,938 41.4% +4,95819.3% 57,599 26.6% +12,092 6.3% 18,867 -17.2% -3,91620.5% 42,277 135.1% +24,295 6.0% 12,368 16.0% +1,70319.3% 46,051 0.9% +428 12.3% 29,385 -5.1% -1,56418.5% 11,029 -5.3% -615 12.8% 7,606 -17.4% -1,60717.3% 2,655 -8.3% -241 19.1% 2,933 28.4% +64919.0% 8,374 -4.3% -374 10.6% 4,673 -32.6% -2,25615.9% 1,901 -4.3% -85 20.4% 2,437 37.8% +66818.5% 20,151 -8.7% -1,922 13.5% 14,760 -17.7% -3,18117.8% 46,106 44.0% +14,096 11.2% 29,016 2.7% +75619.9% 44,018 27.2% +9,422 10.0% 22,074 -0.3% -7118.0% 12,675 32.9% +3,135 9.5% 6,648 6.9% +42919.4% 92,629 25.0% +18,509 10.7% 51,003 -5.6% -3,02216.7% 30,321 23.4% +5,744 11.8% 21,495 5.5% +1,11622.4% 20,139 52.3% +6,912 6.5% 5,816 -14.3% -97017.5% 29,605 20.1% +4,957 12.0% 20,261 0.9% +18316.7% 3,687 55.2% +1,312 11.7% 2,577 81.6% +1,158

44.4% 292,313 23.1% +54,772 24.2% 159,315 0.6% +1,02639.4% 90,605 3.3% +2,905 31.5% 72,315 23.7% +13,85638.1% 49,461 12.2% +5,374 31.4% 40,830 32.3% +9,96637.6% 25,808 11.8% +2,725 32.5% 22,287 29.5% +5,07743.6% 559 -12.5% -80 42.3% 543 12.0% +5839.1% 23,865 53.2% +8,285 24.5% 14,918 23.4% +2,82446.2% 69,379 14.2% +8,609 34.7% 52,032 -1.7% -91748.1% 60,155 43.2% +18,145 23.8% 29,730 51.1% +10,05142.8% 127,780 19.3% +20,632 19.0% 56,718 -11.9% -7,63544.8% 92,272 101.4% +46,463 20.3% 41,904 26.5% +8,77347.2% 112,465 4.5% +4,832 26.1% 62,178 -2.1% -1,35147.3% 28,127 1.8% +505 25.3% 15,024 -15.0% -2,64742.3% 6,492 3.3% +208 31.3% 4,808 22.5% +88449.0% 21,635 1.4% +297 23.2% 10,216 -25.7% -3,53142.1% 5,030 12.9% +575 31.8% 3,796 34.9% +98246.4% 50,571 -2.3% -1,179 26.6% 29,031 -13.5% -4,53241.3% 106,705 35.3% +27,820 23.8% 61,591 -0.6% -34147.4% 104,548 27.3% +22,400 23.5% 51,954 6.2% +3,04543.4% 30,489 27.0% +6,476 23.8% 16,739 19.1% +2,68744.4% 211,750 20.1% +35,474 23.8% 113,656 -1.8% -2,02644.3% 80,563 31.5% +19,313 25.1% 45,659 7.2% +3,05250.9% 45,716 38.4% +12,684 19.1% 17,149 -4.4% -78340.9% 69,333 15.0% +9,051 26.6% 45,079 0.3% +14740.7% 9,000 63.6% +3,498 27.5% 6,067 101.4% +3,054


Data: U.S. Census.









Families Families


White White


Asian Asian


Poverty Poverty



(Boston) (Boston)










Families Families


White White


Asian Asian


Poverty Poverty


TABLES FOR CENTRAL CITY ONLY - Boston




(Boston) (Boston)

5

5.5% 225,293 12.6% +25,216 9.2% 375,243 -1.1% -4,0386.5% 50,452 -17.6% -10,800 17.0% 132,217 49.3% +43,6537.5% 25,396 -12.5% -3,621 18.2% 61,422 63.2% +23,7777.3% 11,446 -13.9% -1,841 17.2% 27,023 53.5% +9,4217.6% 278 -35.3% -152 17.5% 643 -35.3% -3514.6% 13,028 72.8% +5,487 12.6% 35,855 37.5% +9,7864.5% 8,548 7.3% +583 16.2% 30,885 73.3% +13,063

12.3% 44,455 46.5% +14,101 18.8% 67,790 73.0% +28,6134.9% 152,697 2.8% +4,151 7.3% 229,174 -18.9% -53,4634.9% 62,059 58.7% +22,947 6.4% 82,315 23.4% +15,5856.1% 93,797 1.2% +1,067 11.0% 169,968 -8.6% -15,9125.4% 25,647 -3.3% -874 8.8% 42,307 -10.8% -5,1477.1% 3,101 -31.5% -1,428 20.9% 9,188 66.2% +3,6595.2% 22,546 2.5% +554 7.6% 33,119 -21.0% -8,8067.4% 2,208 -27.2% -824 21.7% 6,448 68.4% +2,6205.4% 46,617 -7.8% -3,944 9.0% 77,558 -12.1% -10,6446.2% 57,158 14.5% +7,241 11.6% 106,179 4.1% +4,2015.4% 90,293 17.5% +13,479 8.4% 141,328 1.0% +1,4225.1% 31,225 29.1% +7,040 8.3% 50,178 2.0% +9945.3% 179,546 8.0% +13,271 8.4% 288,628 -7.8% -24,3237.0% 45,747 35.2% +11,922 13.2% 86,615 30.6% +20,2974.7% 46,986 16.2% +6,543 7.1% 70,878 -3.7% -2,7377.2% 37,397 4.9% +1,763 13.8% 71,552 -1.0% -7166.5% 6,633 63.1% +2,566 10.8% 11,046 59.9% +4,139

28.0% 1,139,133 9.7% +100,714 30.9% 1,258,498 0.9% +10,79621.6% 168,212 -11.0% -20,701 42.7% 332,849 39.5% +94,20722.7% 76,628 -1.1% -864 43.1% 145,561 50.7% +48,96123.6% 37,014 -0.1% -36 42.5% 66,643 48.3% +21,69724.1% 883 -45.6% -739 42.8% 1,569 -35.0% -84626.3% 75,071 89.7% +35,495 32.1% 91,339 51.9% +31,21522.1% 42,202 51.5% +14,344 46.3% 88,416 89.1% +41,66226.0% 93,544 60.1% +35,131 41.5% 149,438 77.6% +65,27528.8% 900,304 1.2% +11,093 28.5% 892,012 -12.4% -126,31030.9% 395,381 40.2% +113,371 26.0% 332,524 23.7% +63,64726.3% 406,243 -4.4% -18,901 34.5% 533,185 -7.6% -43,69928.3% 135,700 -1.8% -2,548 29.8% 142,954 -9.4% -14,87620.3% 8,929 -18.0% -1,959 46.5% 20,424 50.7% +6,86829.1% 126,771 -0.5% -589 28.2% 122,530 -15.1% -21,74420.6% 6,100 -9.4% -636 48.1% 14,279 56.4% +5,15228.1% 243,251 -4.6% -11,693 30.0% 259,707 -10.3% -29,76026.5% 242,931 7.1% +16,119 34.2% 313,249 2.9% +8,86128.6% 481,147 12.5% +53,492 29.8% 501,596 2.8% +13,81028.3% 171,804 31.4% +41,065 30.3% 183,946 12.0% +19,70428.4% 969,221 5.7% +52,177 29.9% 1,023,107 -4.9% -52,89126.0% 169,912 40.0% +48,509 36.0% 235,391 37.1% +63,74329.2% 293,722 11.5% +30,349 28.2% 283,549 -0.5% -1,28726.2% 136,524 4.5% +5,930 37.6% 195,903 -0.8% -1,58829.0% 29,739 62.5% +11,443 33.4% 34,289 85.3% +15,786


Data: U.S. Census.









Families Families


White White


Asian Asian


Poverty Poverty



(Boston Suburbs) (Boston Suburbs)










Families Families


White White


Asian Asian

TABLES FOR REGIONAL SUBURBS - Boston Region


Poverty Poverty





(Boston Suburbs) (Boston Suburbs)

6

Cs

Malden

Salem

Lowell

Lawrence

WORCESTER

ESSEX

BRISTOL

MIDDLESEX

PLYMOUTH

NORFOLK

PROVIDENCE

SUFFOLK NORFOLK

93

93

90

95

495

95

95

495

Plymouth

Boston

Carver

Groton

Middleborough

Ipswich

Kingston

Andover

Stow

Acton

Westford

Sharon

Franklin

Billerica

Dracut

Concord

Boxford

Sudbury

Duxbury

GloucesterEssex

Hingham

Marshfield

Rowley

Canton

Norwell

Hopkinton

Walpole

Natick

Halifax

Pepperell

Lynn

Brockton

Newton

Millis

Pembroke

Weston

Bridgewater

Scituate

Wrentham

Holliston

Lincoln

Framingham

Beverly

Hanson

CarlisleLittleton

Ayer

Norfolk

Chelmsford

Peabody

Tewksbury

North Andover

Hanover

Wayland

Weymouth

Bedford

Sherborn

Foxborough

Marlborough

Medfield

Danvers

Bellingham

Lexington

Dunstable

Woburn

Hamilton

Saugus

Ashland

Plympton

Hudson

Stoughton

Braintree

Waltham

Wilmington

Topsfield

Medway

NeedhamHull

Dedham

Tyngsborough

Plainville

Reading

Cohasset

Lynnfield

Burlington

Abington

Randolph

Wellesley

Westwood

Medford

EastBridgewater

North Reading

Wenham

Avon

Revere

Boxborough

Holbrook

Wakefield

Whitman

Maynard

Melrose

Arlington

Winchester

Rockland

West Bridgewater

Stoneham

Belmont

Marblehead

Watertown Winthrop

Manchester-by-the-Sea

Swampscott

Nahant

BOSTON (CENTRAL) REGION:Gentrification and Economic Decline by Census Tractwith Net Change in Low Income Population, 2000-2016

See Inset

RIMA

MANH

SUFFOLK

Boston

Brookline

Cambridge

Belmont EverettSomerville

Watertown Winthrop

Chelsea

NHMA

AtlanticOcean

Miles

0 4 8

3

2

24

Data Sources: Geolytics, U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 SF3; U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 American Community Survey (5-year data).

Abandonment:(0)< -700 Low Income

Downwardly Mobile:

(7)-1 to -699 Low IncomeLow Income Concentration:

(76)1 to 699 Low Income(25)> 700 Low Income

Low Income Displacement:(3)< -700 Low Income

Economic Expansion:

(68)-1 to -699 Low IncomeOverall Growth:

(12)1 to 699 Low Income(1)> 700 Low Income

Economic expansion/decline is definedif a tract has a +/- 10% change in middle-high-income population and a -/+ 5%change in low-income population share, respectively.

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boston region - university of minnesota law school · regionally, about 350,000 people live in...

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