bp energy outlook
TRANSCRIPT
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BP Energy Outlook 2016 edition
Outlook to 2035
Spencer Dale, group chief economist
0 10 20 30
Other
India
Africa
China
OECD
Population Productivity
Contribution to GDP growth 2014-35
OECD
2016 Energy Outlook 2
Trillion, $2010
0
50
100
150
200
250
1965 2000 2035
Other India Africa China OECD
Trillion, $2010
GDP
Economicbackdrop
© BP p.l.c. 2016 2016 Energy Outlook
Billion toe
Consumption by region Consumption growth by region
10 year average, % per annum
Transport
Other
Industry
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
1975 1995 2015 2035
Other Asia China World OECD
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
1965 2000 2035
Other Other Asia China OECD
Global energy demand
3
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What drives energy demand?
4
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Index (1965=100)
Global GDP and energy
2016 Energy Outlook 5
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1965 2000 2035
GDP
Primary energy
© BP p.l.c. 2016
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1965 2000 2035
2016 Energy Outlook
*Includes biofuels
Annual demand growth by fuel
0
50
100
150
200
250
1994-2014 2014-35
Renew.*
Hydro
Nuclear
Coal
Gas
Oil
Mtoe per annum
Shares of primary energy
Oil
Coal
Gas
Hydro
Nuclear Renewables*
Fuel mix
6
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Key factors shaping the fuel mix
2016 Energy Outlook
What have we learned about US shale?
China’s changing energy needs
Prospects for renewables and other non-fossil fuels
Changing outlook for carbon emissions
7
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0
2
4
6
8
2005 2015 2025 2035
2013 2014 2015 2016
Mb/d
US tight oil forecasts
0
30
60
90
2005 2015 2025 2035
US shale gas forecasts
Bcf/d
2016 Energy Outlook
Forecast year:
US tight oil and shale gas
8
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Key factors shaping the fuel mix
2016 Energy Outlook
What have we learned about US shale?
China’s changing energy needs
Prospects for renewables and other non-fossil fuels
Changing outlook for carbon emissions
9
© BP p.l.c. 2016
GDP and primary energy growth
% per annum
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
2000-14 2014-25 2025-35
GDP
Primary energy
2016 Energy Outlook
China’s changing energy needs
0%
40%
80%
1985 2010 2035
Coal
Oil
Gas
Non-fossils
Shares of primary energy
10
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Key factors shaping the fuel mix
2016 Energy Outlook
What have we learned about US shale?
China’s changing energy needs
Prospects for renewables and other non-fossil fuels
Changing outlook for carbon emissions
11
© BP p.l.c. 2016
-400
-200
0
200
400
2015 2020 2025 2030
Renewables Hydro Biofuels Nuclear Total
Renewables in power forecasts Mtoe
Revisions to non-fossil fuels vs 2011 Outlook Mtoe
0
500
1000
1500
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
2016 Energy Outlook
Forecast year:
Renewables and other non-fossil fuels
12
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Key factors shaping the fuel mix
2016 Energy Outlook
What have we learned about US shale?
China’s changing energy needs
Prospects for renewables and other non-fossil fuels
Changing outlook for carbon emissions
13
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Carbon emissions
% per annum
1994-2014 2014-35
GDP
CO2
Decline in energy intensity
Decline in carbon intensity
2016 Energy Outlook 14
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
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0
10
20
30
40
1975 1995 2015 2035
Base case
Faster transition
IEA 450
Billion tonnes CO2
Carbon emissions
2016 Energy Outlook
Outlook for carbon emissions
15
© BP p.l.c. 2016
0
10
20
30
40
1975 1995 2015 2035
Base case
Faster transition
IEA 450
Billion tonnes CO2
Carbon emissions
2016 Energy Outlook
Outlook for carbon emissions
16
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CO2 0
1
2
3
4
5
1965 2000 2035
Hydro & Nuclear Renewables*
Billion toe
Oil
Coal Gas
Consumption by fuel
-100 -50
0 50
100 150 200 250
1994- 2014
Base case
Faster transition
Renew.* Hydro Nuclear Coal Gas Oil Total
Mtoe per annum
2014-35 *Includes biofuels
Annual demand growth by fuel
Impact of faster transition case
2016 Energy Outlook 17
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Conclusions
2016 Energy Outlook
Global demand for energy continues to rise − to power increased levels of activity as the world
economy continues to grow
Fuel mix changes significantly − coal losing, renewables gaining, and oil and gas
combined holding steady
Growth rate of carbon emissions slows sharply − but further policy changes are needed
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BP Energy Outlook 2016 edition
Outlook to 2035
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