bp statistical-reviewofworldenergy 2011

bp.com/statisticalreview

© BP 2011

BP Statistical Review of World EnergyJune 2011

2010 – Energy Rebounds

Kevin Goodwin, Head Refining Analysis

BP Statistical Review of World Energy© BP 2011

Outline

• Introduction

• Energy and the economy

• Fuel by fuel

• Conclusion


-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

2006 2008 2010

RenewablesHydroNuclearCoal

GasOil

The economy and energy demand

Energy

-6%

-2%

2%

6%

10%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

WorldOECDNon-OECD

GDP

Annual change, %Annual change, %

Source: includes data from Oxford Economics. GDP growth is expressed in real purchasing power parity (PPP) terms.

10-year average


-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

2007 2008 2009 2010

GDPEnergy

-16%

-8%

0%

8%

16%

Trade Industry Energy GDP

Recession and recovery

2010

2009

Source: includes data from Oxford Economics, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.

Annual change, % Annual change, %


0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

2007 2008 2009 2010

-5%

-3%

-1%

1%

3%

5%

2007 2008 2009 2010

GDPEnergy

GDP and energy growth

Source: includes data from Oxford Economics.

OECD Non-OECD



100

140

180

220

260

300

1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010

WorldOECDNon-OECD

2009 2010-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

98-03 03-08

Change in energy intensity

Effect of increased non-OECD weight

Net change

Energy intensity

Toe/$Million

Energy intensity level Change in energy intensity

Toe/$Million per year

Source: includes data from Oxford Economics.


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11

Dated Brent

0

30

60

90

120

150

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

Dated BrentAnnual averages

Crude oil prices

$/bbl

Source: includes data from Platts.

Lowest since March 1995

12-month moving average volatility, %


-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11

OPEC productionNon-OPEC productionGlobal consumption

Annual change, Mb/d

Source: includes data from EIA.

Oil consumption and production


Oil consumption growth in 2010

-200 0 200 400 600 800

France

Canada

India

Singapore

Saudi Arabia

Brazil

Russia

US

China

Kb/d

Largest changes Regional growth by fuel type

-100 0 100 200 300 400

Africa

Middle East

Eur. & Eurasia

S&C America

N. America

Asia Pacific

Gasoil

Gasoline

Kb/d


USBiofuels

Saudi Arabia

UK

Nigeria

China

RussiaQatar

Colombia

CanadaBrazil

Norway

-300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400

Non-OPEC

FSU

OPEC

Oil production growth in 2010

Changes of more than 100 Kb/d.

Kb/d

Decline Increase


0

40

80

120

160

Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11

ProductsCrude

Oil inventories

2500

2600

2700

2800

2900

Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov

05-09 Range 2010 2011

Mbbls

OECD commercial oil stocks Oil in floating storage

Mbbls

Source: includes data from Monthly Oil Data Services © OECD/International Energy Agency May 2011 and from EA Gibson.


-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

Consumption Production

Cumulative demand and production

Mb/d

Changes since 2005

0

100

200

300

400

Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11

OPECNon-OPEC

Oil rig count and oil price

Index: Jan 2005 = 100

OECD

Non-OECD

OPEC-11 Crude

Biofuels

OPEC NGLs

Non-OPEC

Iraq Brent price

Source: includes data from Platts, Baker-Hughes.


Refining margins

Refining capacity and margins

Source: includes data from Parpinelli-Technon, Platts.

0

5

10

15

20

2005 2007 2009 2011

BP RMM10-yr. Av.

$/bbl

ytd

40

42

44

46

48

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

OECDNon-OECD

Refining capacity

Mb/d


25

30

35

40

45

1995 2000 2005 2010

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%OECD Non-OECDWorld (rhs)

Light-heavy spreads

Crude runs and light-heavy spreads

Source: includes data from ESAI, Platts.

Crude runs and utilisation

Mb/d

0

5

10

15

20

2005 2007 2009 2011

LLS-Maya10-yr. Av.

$/bbl

ytd

Utilisation, %


0

50

100

150

200

250

Consumption Production0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2008 2009 2010 2011

Natural gas markets

PricesConsumption and production growth

$/Mmbtu

Source: includes data from Platts, BAFA.

Germany

Japan LNG

UK NBPUS Henry Hub

2010 vs 2009, Bcm

N America

FSU

Europe

Mid East

Asia

Other

ytd


0

200

400

600

800

Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11

GasOil

Horizontal gas and oil drilling Gas in power generation

Number of horizontal rigs

US natural gas market

Source: includes data from Smith Bits STATS, EIA.

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

200820092010

Gas share in generation from coal and gas


-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

2009 2010

Pipeline LNG

Global gas trade growth LNG trade links

9

14

8

11

5

9

2005

2009

2010

Four main importers, av. number of sources

Annual change, %

Global natural gas trade

Source: includes data from Cedigaz, GIIGNL, CISStat.

All exporters, av. number of markets


0

3

6

9

12

15

1Q07 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11

Av. German Import PriceUK NBP

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

1Q07 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10

LNG Pipeline

OECD Europe natural gas market

Source: includes data from Platts, BAFA, Monthly Gas Data Service © OECD/International Energy Agency May 2011.

Annual change, %$/Mmbtu

Prices Import growth


0

10

20

30

40

1Q09 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11

0

8

16

24

32RoWIndonesiaAustralia

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

2006 2008 2010

RoW

EU

US

India

China

Mtoe

Consumption changes China’s imports

Coal consumption and imports

Mtes $/te

Price spread* (rhs)

Source: includes data from IHS CERA, IHS McCloskey. *Spread between China’s Qinhuangdao and Australia’s Newcastle coal prices.


-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Hydro and nuclear power consumption

Hydro Nuclear


10-year average


0%

2%

4%

6%

By region By fuel

CO2 emissions

Contributions to growth

CO2 emissions growth 2010

Coal

Gas

Oil

China

OECD

Other non-

OECD

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.8

2.9

3.0

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

CO2 intensity of energy

Tonnes of CO2 per toe

Non-OECD

World

OECD


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2001 2004 2007 2010

Renewables in powerBiofuels

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2001 2004 2007 2010

Renewable energy

Percent Contributions to growth

Renewables in power

Biofuels

Share of primary energy Renewables growth


0%

2%

4%

6%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

WorldOECDNon-OECD

Renewables in power

Percent0% 10% 20% 30%

Denmark

Portugal

NewZealand

Spain

Philippines

Germany

Percent

Share of power generation Share of power generation in 2010


0%

2%

4%

6%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Nuclear (1974-1983)Renewables (2001-2010)

Renewables in Germany and Spain

Share of primary energy, %

Germany

Years after reaching 1% shareSource: includes data from MITyC.SEE.

0

100

200

300

400

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

OilGasCoalSolarBiomassWindHydroNuclear

Power generation, TWh

Spain


0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

15%

18%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

China Other non-OECD OECD

Renewable power growth

Contributions to growth

Growth by region

0

300

600

900

1200

1500

1800

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

SpainChinaGermany

Index: 2000=100

Renewables consumption


100

400

700

1000

1950 1970 1990 2010

GDPEnergyCO2

60 years of energy

Percent Index: 1950=100

World GDP, energy and emissions

0%

20%

40%

60%

1950 1970 1990 2010

OilCoalGasHydroNuclearRenew

World fuel shares

Source: includes data from Oxford Economics; Etemad, Luciani, Bairoch, and Toutain, 1991; Maddison, 2009.

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© BP 2011

2010 – Energy Rebounds

60 years

BP Statistical Review of World EnergyJune 2011

Q & A: Kevin Goodwin

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