brazil economics digest - credit suisse
TRANSCRIPT
DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS.
14 March 2017 Americas
Fixed Income Research Emerging Markets
Brazil Economics Digest Research Analysts
Nilson Teixeira
55 11 3701 6288
Paulo Coutinho
55 11 3701 6353
Iana Ferrao
55 11 3701 6345
Leonardo Fonseca
55 11 3701 6348
Lucas Vilela
55 11 3701 6352
We attribute low probability of an upgrade in
Brazil's sovereign risk rating in 2017
Low probability of Brazil recovering investment grade in the next two
years. The projections of fiscal results and activity much lower than those for
the vast majority of emerging countries and even for a significant number of
developed countries in the next few years point to low probability of the main
credit rating agencies upgrading Brazil's sovereign risk rating in 2017.
The country has the worst fiscal dynamics of all countries with similar
sovereign credit ratings. The IMF projects an increase in gross debt as a
percentage of GDP of 15.3 percentage points (pps) in the next five years,
compared with an average increase of 0.4pp in countries with a rating one
notch above (BB+), at the same level (BB), and one notch below (BB-) Brazil's
rating by S&P. Brazil will likely have the second highest gross debt as a
percentage of GDP in 2021 of all such countries, behind only Portugal.
Fiscal consolidation not sufficient to ensure upgrade in Brazil's
rating to investment grade. We estimated the main drivers of the credit
ratings of 42 countries over the past 26 years. Just as with external and
internal indebtedness variables, economic activity indicators (e.g., GDP
and unemployment) also support a large portion of the determination of
credit ratings. In addition to fiscal consolidation, our exercises confirm
that Brazil needs to implement several other measures to raise the
country's potential growth.
Long time for reversal of downgrade in credit rating. According to our
calculation of the distribution of the time it took for a change in the sovereign risk
rating of 88 countries: (i) the time it takes for a downgrade in credit rating is
shorter than the time it takes for an upgrade; (ii) after a rating downgrade, the
time it takes for a new downgrade is even shorter than the time required for a
reversal; and (iii) after a downgrade, it is more common for countries to have a
new rating downgrade than an upgrade.
Recovery of investment grade is very difficult. Of the 18 countries that lost
investment grade since 1990, only six recovered the rating. Additionally, the
countries that recovered investment grade took, on average, six years and
11 months for such.
14 March 2017
Brazil Economics Digest 2
Brazil has the worst fiscal dynamics of countries with similar sovereign credit ratings
In September 2015, when taking away Brazil's investment grade, S&P mentioned in its report that the country's fiscal situation
weighed heavily in the decision to downgrade the rating from BBB- to BB+. According to the document, the revision of the
primary surplus target for 2016 for the second time in 2015 evidenced the low commitment of the administration of President
Dilma Rousseff to fiscal adjustment and disagreement on the need to reduce the imbalance of public accounts. S&P suggested
that the downgrade in Brazil's risk rating was also associated with uncertainty regarding the investigations into corruption
schemes in the country. In February 2016, the agency again downgraded Brazil's credit rating, this time to BB, as a result of the
worsening of the fiscal situation, the contraction in economic activity, and renewed political uncertainty associated with the
process of impeachment of President Rousseff. The projections for the dynamics of Brazil's public accounts for the next five
years are the worst compared to the dynamics projected by the IMF for countries with a sovereign risk rating, according to S&P,
one notch above (BB+), at the same level (BB), and one notch below (BB-) Brazil's rating (Figure 1). The country's gross debt
as a percentage of GDP will increase 15.3pps from 2016 to 2021, while in countries with a risk rating close or similar to that of
Brazil, it will increase by 0.4pp on average (Figure 2). The increase in public debt as a percentage of GDP will occur due to the
high primary and nominal deficits projected for the next few years, even after approval of the constitutional amendment that
imposes zero growth in central government expenditures in real terms in the next 20 years. 1 At the end of 2021, Brazil's gross
debt as a percentage of GDP will be smaller only than that of Portugal among all countries with ratings of BB+, BB, or BB-.
Figure 1: Projections of nominal deficit Figure 2: Projections of central government gross indebtedness
% of GDP % of GDP2
Source: S&P, International Monetary Fund, Credit Suisse Source: S&P, International Monetary Fund, Credit Suisse
1 The rigidity of primary expenditures makes it more difficult to fulfill Constitutional Amendment EC 95/2016, which would require the approval of
additional expense-cutting measures and/or tax hikes. 2 The IMF method for calculation of gross debt as a proportion of GDP is different from the method of the Central Bank of Brazil. The IMF includes,
for example, the portfolio of the Treasury with the Central Bank of Brazil to back repos. According to the central bank's method, gross debt stood at 71.0% of GDP in 2016. We project that gross debt under this methodology will reach 93% of GDP in 2021.
BB+
BB
BB-
2016 2021
Bangladesh
DominicanRepublic
Vietnam
Bolivia
Brazil
Croatia
Cyprus
Turkey
Azerbaijan
Indonesia
Portugal
Russia
-4.3-3.5
-3.7-4.2
-8.1-5.0
-10.4-6.4
-2.8-2.3
-0.5-0.1
-1.9-1.9
-9.97.6
-2.5-2.8
-3.0-2.9
-3.90.4
-6.5-5.1
4.3
0.1
-0.3
17.5
0.0
0.4
0.5
4.0
3.1
1.4
-0.5
0.7
Change
BB+
BB
BB-
2016 2021
1.4
-2.5
3.4
-7.6
-4.2
-15.5
-4.9
15.3
9.4
5.9
4.3
-0.4
Change
34.033.6
35.840.1
62.067.9
40.650.0
78.393.6
86.881.9
106.791.2
31.727.5
39.632.0
27.530.9
128.4125.9
17.118.5
Bangladesh
DominicanRepublic
Vietnam
Bolivia
Brazil
Croatia
Cyprus
Turkey
Azerbaijan
Indonesia
Portugal
Russia
14 March 2017
Brazil Economics Digest 3
Despite the growing public debt, the prices of Brazil's credit default swaps (CDS) dropped significantly in the past few
quarters after the approval of the constitutional amendment that caps growth in central government expenditures and the
improvement in the prospects for the domestic economy. However, of the 13 countries with the financial instrument
available in the market and rated BB+, BB, and BB- by S&P, 11 also saw a reduction in the price of their CDS compared
to the price one day before the credit rating was changed. The price of Brazil's CDS dropped by more than 50% from
February 2016 to March 2017. Of this group, only Russia (risk rating BB+) had a sharper decline in the price of CDS.
Among the countries with a BB rating, Brazil posted the biggest decline in the CDS price. The only countries whose CDS
prices increased were Guatemala and Portugal (Figure 3).
Analyzing only the relationship between CDS and credit rating, the recent improvement does not corroborate an upgrade
in Brazil's risk rating in the short term (Figure 4). If the price of Brazil's CDS had not declined, the current sovereign risk
rating of the country would be incompatible with the risk aversion indicator, as the non-linear relationship between both
variables indicates that the CDS price compatible with a BB risk rating is 277 points, much lower than the 491 points on
the day before S&P downgraded the country's credit rating (February 16, 2016).
Figure 3: Change in CDS price since last credit rating review
3 Figure 4: Credit rating and CDS prices
Credit rating, basis points Credit rating, basis points
Source: S&P, © Datastream International Limited All rights reserved, Credit Suisse Source: S&P, © Datastream International Limited All rights reserved, Credit Suisse
3 The current reference price of the CDS was that on March 3, and the price before the rating review is that on the day immediately before the rating
review by S&P.
108
-19
-239
-392
Portugal
Bulgaria
Indonesia
Russia
228
-26
-50
-56
-271
-143
-179
-180
-199
Guatemala
Turkey
Croatia
Cyprus
Brazil
Serbia
Bahrein
Vietnam
Costa Rica
BB+
BB
BB-
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500
CDS
AAA
A
BB+
B-
C
Brazil, March 2017
Brazil, February 2016
y = 47.9 x-0.2
R² = 0.8152
AA+AA
AA-A+
A-BBB+
BBBBBB-
BBBB-B+
B
CCC+CCC
CCC-CC
14 March 2017
Brazil Economics Digest 4
Despite the unfavorable fiscal results, Brazil has very positive external indicators. For example, the current-account deficit
has dropped significantly in recent years, from 4.3% of GDP in 2014 to 3.3% of GDP in 2015 and 1.3% of GDP in 2016,
while the flow of inward direct investments has remained high, at above 3.9% of GDP―more than enough to finance the
entire current-account deficit. Accordingly, the External Funding Needs (EFN) was negative in the past two years (Figure 5).
Another factor that helped reduce external risks was the high level of international reserves. Like other emerging
countries, Brazil built high reserves in hard currency in the past decade to reduce the country's vulnerability to capital
flights. In 2016, Brazil's international reserves accounted for 66% of total external debt: It was the economy with the
fourth highest share of international reserves among countries with sovereign risk rating close or similar to that of Brazil
(BB+, BB, and BB-) (Figure 6).4
Figure 5: International reserves in 2015 Figure 6: External funding needs in 20155
% of external debt % of GDP
Source: S&P, World Bank, Credit Suisse Source: S&P, World Bank, Credit Suisse
4 According to the statistics of the Central Bank of Brazil, reserves as a share of external debt remained relatively stable at 66% in 2016.
5 External funding need calculated based on IMF data for current transactions and inward direct investments in Brazil, based on the BMP5 method.
Dominican Republic
Costa Rica
Macedonia
Vietnam
Jordan
BB
BB+
BB-
20
Serbia
Georgia 17
36
33
37
36
64
Turkey 28
Brazil 66
Bolivia 132
Bangladesh 71
Guatemala 38
Paraguay 37
Russia 79
Indonesia 34
Bulgaria 59
Georgia
Jordan
3.0
Macedonia -0.3
5.5
BB
BB+
BB-
Bangladesh
Dominican Republic
Serbia
Costa Rica
Vietnam
-3.1
-6.0
-0.7
-1.3
-0.3
Tunisia 6.7
Turkey 2.8
Bolivia 2.7
Paraguay 0.8
Brazil -0.2
Guatemala -1.6
Croatia -5.5
Cyprus 50.9
Indonesia 0.8
Portugal -0.9
Bulgaria -4.0
Russia -4.0
Bahamas 15.1
14 March 2017
Brazil Economics Digest 5
Fiscal consolidation not sufficient to reverse Brazil's loss of investment grade
We used a panel data model for 42 countries rated by S&P from 1980 to 20156 to analyze the drivers of the credit rating
of a country. The model indicates that the variables activity, external sector, and public accounts explain the credit rating
of a country (Figure 7).
Figure 7: Drivers of sovereign credit ratings
Panel with 42 countries, from 1980 to 2015
Source: World Bank, International Monetary Fund, S&P, Credit Suisse
Although credit rating agencies attributed great importance to the deterioration in public accounts in their decision to
downgrade Brazil's credit rating, fiscal variables explain a very low percentage of the ratings of the countries in the
sample. For example, of the 17 countries with investment grade that posted structural nominal deficits greater than 6.0%
of GDP in the period of the sample, only three countries (Brazil, Greece, and Portugal) lost investment grade status
(Figure 8).
Accordingly, an upgrade in Brazil's credit rating depends not only on improvement in fiscal results but also on important
economic variables, such as GDP growth, lower unemployment, and an increase in investments as a percentage of GDP.
Even if a reduction in uncertainty regarding the path of public accounts creates a more benign scenario for the economy
in the short term (for example, lower risk aversion, inflation, and interest rates), growth resumption sustainable in the long
term requires structural reforms that, in addition to fiscal consolidation, aim at increasing labor productivity and potential
GDP. Having said that, the fiscal adjustment is a necessary but not sufficient condition for sustainable growth resumption
in the long term.
6 We estimate a non-balanced panel model with fixed effect for each country. The fixed effect controls the particular effects of each country, which do
not change over time (e.g., institutions). See Afonso, Antônio; Gomes, Pedro; & Rother, Phillip (2007), “What rides behind sovereign debt ratings ?”, WP 711, European Central Bank.
GDP
Inflation
GDP per capita
Investments(% of GDP)
Reserves (% external debt)
Unemployment
Gross debt (% of GDP)
Need for external funding
GDP growth increases the government's capacity to fulfill its current obligations associated with internal and external indebtedness, by virtue of higher tax revenues.
Per capita GDP is a proxy for the level of development of a country. More developed countries have access to better credit terms and find it easier to finance their debt.
Investments are a reflection of investors' confidence in the prosperity of the economy in question and willingness to finance the country's debts.
Reserves as a percentage of external debt serve as insurance in times of balance-of-payments crises. In the absence of external capital, the government can use the reserves to finance the current-account deficit and pay external debt service.
Inflation is an indication of worse macroeconomic indicators (e.g., a deteriorated fiscal situation).
High unemployment reduces the tax base and revenues due to lower consumption, which diminishes the capacity to repay debts.
Gross debt is associated with a lower capacity to issue new debt and a greater percentage of government revenues used for debt service.
A positive need for external financing requires that trade relations with the rest of the world be financed through "short-term" capital, such as investments in fixed income and equities.
14 March 2017
Brazil Economics Digest 6
Figure 8: Cases of average structural nominal deficits of 6.0% of GDP in countries with investment grade
Average for the period
Source: World Bank, International Monetary Fund, S&P, Credit Suisse
Country
Belgium
Canada
Norway
Italy
Greece
Sweden
Japan
Poland
Portugal
Spain
United Kingdom
United States
Austria
Malaysia
Israel
Iceland
Brazil
Structural deficit (% of GDP)
8.2
6.3
8.6
9.6
10.7
10.1
7.7
6.9
7.6
8.2
7.2
7.8
6.7
6.4
6.4
10.0
7.6
GDP (annual change)
1.4
0.2
3.0
1.3
1.4
2.1
0.7
3.3
-0.3
-0.9
0.1
0.9
2.7
8.7
0.2
-4.7
-3.5
Gross debt (% of GDP)
133.2
83.7
40.2
104.4
96.6
68.9
194.8
49.9
86.9
55.4
77.3
95.6
68.0
32.9
83.7
82.9
63.3
Maintained investment grade
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
14 March 2017
Brazil Economics Digest 7
Measures to raise potential growth are important to recover investment grade
S&P reaffirmed Brazil's credit rating: BB with a negative outlook as of February 10, 2017. Despite the approval of measures
that seek to reduce the fiscal imbalance, the agency signaled that the scenario remains challenging for public accounts and
activity in the next few years. According to S&P, political uncertainties, the fiscal crises of states, and persistent recession
indicate that it may take long for Brazil's economy to adjust. Based on the estimated model, Brazil's credit rating compatible
with our forecasts for 2016 and 2017 would be BB-, below the current BB level (Figure 9). The economic fundamentals per
se (e.g., high unemployment, high gross debt, and low economic growth) would justify a downgrade in the country's credit
rating in 2016. The more positive view of the rating agency than the result of the model may embed the prospects of
approval of fiscal measures that mitigate, to a certain extent, the deterioration in public accounts and the weak activity
performance. Thus, if the social security reform approved by Congress is much more timid than that proposed by the
government and economic activity does not resume in the next few quarters, it is possible that Brazil's risk rating sees
another downgrade. Conversely, approval of a broad social security reform (e.g., including measures related to minimum
age and the proposals for grandfather clause and survivors pension) and activity resumption, even if gradual, raise the
probability of a change in the outlook for Brazil from negative to neutral. However, an upgrade in Brazil's risk rating from BB
to BB+ and, later, to BBB- is not likely in the next two years. In order for Brazil to have fundamentals compatible with
investment grade, the country would have to see a strong improvement in its fiscal indicators and an increase in the
projections for activity growth in the next few years. For example, Brazil's credit rating would be BBB if the country were able
to reach the average performance of emerging countries: GDP growth of 2.0% per year, unemployment of 7.5%, investment
rate of 23.9% of GDP, and gross debt of 42.6% of GDP (Figure 10).
Figure 9: Projection of the model for Brazil's sovereign risk rating
Source: World Bank, International Monetary Fund, S&P, Credit Suisse
Figure 10: Projection of the model for credit rating of emerging economies
Source: World Bank, International Monetary Fund, S&P, Credit Suisse
Need for
external finance
GDP
(annual change)Inflation
Per capita GDP
('000)Investments
(% of GDP)Reserves
(% external debt)Unemployment
Gross debt
(% of GDP) Estimated
rating
2016
2017
Avg.emerg.
-3.6% 17.3 16.4% 66% 6.3% 11.5% 78.3% -2.4% BB-
0.2% 19.6 16.5% 65% 4.7% 13.1% 83.0% -2.3% BB-
2.0% 17.1 23.9% 65% 6.1% 7.5% 42.6% -2.1% BBB
Official
rating
Estimated
rating
South Africa
BBB-
BBB
China
AA-
AA-
Colombia
BBB
BBB-
Philippines
BBB
BBB-
Malaysia
A-
A-
Mexico
BBB+
BBB
Peru
BBB+
BBB
Thailand
BBB+
BBB+
Turkey
BB
BB
Ukraine
B-
CCC-
Brazil
2016
BB
BB-
2017
BB
BB-
14 March 2017
Brazil Economics Digest 8
Further downgrade in credit rating is more likely than upgrade
Based on the evolution of the credit ratings of 88 countries since 1990, we estimated the distribution of the time needed
for a change in sovereign credit rating. The database indicates that risk rating agencies downgrade a rating more quickly
than they upgrade it. In general, agencies take more time to resume a more positive assessment (Figures 11 to 14).
Downgrade in credit rating Upgrade in credit rating
The median time for a country to have its credit
rating downgraded is 20 months. The average time
is 44 months.
Conversely, the median time for an upgrade in the
credit rating of a country is 26 months. The average
time is 34 months.
Figure 11: Histogram and density of number of months for a downgrade in credit rating
Figure 12: Histogram and density of number of months for an upgrade in credit rating
Source: S&P, Credit Suisse Source: S&P, Credit Suisse
After a credit rating downgrade, the average and
median time for a further downgrade is 18 and 9
months, respectively.
The average and median time for reversal of a credit
rating downgrade is 38 and 33 months, respectively.
Figure 13: Histogram and density of time for further credit rating downgrade
Figure 14: Histogram and density of time for reversal of credit rating downgrade
Source: S&P, Credit Suisse Source: S&P, Credit Suisse
Moreover, after a downgrade, the country is more likely to see a further rating downgrade than a reversal of the decision.
Of all cases of credit rating downgrade, 58% were further downgraded, 16% kept the credit rating unchanged, and 26%
had a rating upgrade.
Months
0.030
0.020
0.015
0.010
0.005
0.0000 50 100 150 250200
0.025
Density
Frequency
Median
Average
20.0
43.9
Months
0.025
0.020
0.015
0.010
0.005
0.0000 50 100 150 250200
Frequency
Density
Median
Average
26.0
34.4
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.000 20 60 80 120100
Months40
0.01Density
Frequency
Median
Average
9.0
18.3
Months
0.03
0.02
0.01
0.000 20 60 80 12010040
Density
Frequency
Median
Average
32.5
37.8
14 March 2017
Brazil Economics Digest 9
Average time for reversal of loss of investment grade is above six years
Of the 18 episodes of loss of investment grade, only six countries returned to the previous (or higher) credit rating. Such
reversal took, on average, 83 months (Figure 15).
Figure 15: Time for recovery of investment grade
Source: S&P, Credit Suisse
The quickest recovery of investment grade was in South Korea (1 year and 1 month) and the slowest was in India (more
than 15 years). Both countries faced balance of payment crises in the year they lost investment grade.
There was a sharp increase in risk aversion and capital flight in South Korea owing to a high current-account deficit, high
external debt, dependence on short-term capital, and a fixed FX rate system. Reversal of S&P's decision was attributable
to the swift restructuring of the financial system, with the adoption of a flexible FX rate system, liberalization of the capital
account, and strengthening of regulatory and legal frameworks.
Conversely, India had unsustainable fiscal dynamics and a substantial increase in current-account deficits in the years
before the crisis. Recovery of investment grade was a lengthy process and required the implementation of broad and
long-term reforms that included mainly the reduction of public-sector control over activity, investments, and corporations;
changes in the tax system; liberalization of international trade; and the adoption of more flexible rules in the labor market.
Colombia
Downgrade
Sep-99
Recovery
Mar-11
11 yearsand 5 months
India
Downgrade
May-91
Recovery
Jan-07
15 yearsand 7 months
South Korea
Downgrade
Dec-97
Recovery
Jan-99
1 year and1 month
Hungary
Downgrade
Dec-11
Recovery
Sep-16
4 yearsand 9 months
Romania
Downgrade
Oct-08
Recovery
May-14
5 yearsand 7 months
Slovakia
Downgrade
Sep-98
Recovery
Oct-01
3 yearsand 1 month
14 March 2017
Brazil Economics Digest 10
GLOBAL FIXED INCOME AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH
James Sweeney, Managing Director Head of Fixed Income and Economic Research
+1 212 538 4648 [email protected]
Dr. Neal Soss, Managing Director Vice Chairman, Fixed Income Research
1 212 325 3335 [email protected]
US / GLOBAL ECONOMICS AND STRATEGY
James Sweeney Chief Economist +1 212 538 4648 [email protected]
Xiao Cui +1 212 538 2511 [email protected]
Zoltan Pozsar +1 212 538 3779 [email protected]
Jeremy Schwartz +1 212 538 6419 [email protected]
Sarah Smith +1 212 325-1022 [email protected]
Wenzhe Zhao +1 212 325 1798 [email protected]
Praveen Korapaty Head of Interest Rate Strategy 212 325 3427 [email protected]
Jonathan Cohn 212 325 4923 [email protected]
William Marshall 212 325 5584 [email protected]
EUROPEAN ECONOMICS AND STRATEGY
Neville Hill Head of European Economics & Strategy +44 20 7888 1334 [email protected]
Anais Boussie +44 20 7883 9639 [email protected]
Peter Foley +44 20 7883 4349 [email protected]
Sonali Punhani +44 20 7883 4297 [email protected]
Veronika Roharova +44 20 7888 2403 [email protected]
Giovanni Zanni +44 20 7888 6827 [email protected]
David Sneddon Head of Technical Analysis 44 20 7888 7173 [email protected]
Christopher Hine 212 538 5727 [email protected]
William Porter Head of European Credit +44 20 7888 1207 [email protected]
Chiraag Somaia +44 20 7888 2776 [email protected]
GLOBAL FX / EM ECONOMICS AND STRATEGY Shahab Jalinoos Head of Global FX Strategy 212 325 5412 [email protected]
Honglin Jiang 44 20 7888 1501 [email protected]
Trang Thuy Le +852 2101 7426 [email protected]
Alvise Marino 212 325 5911 [email protected]
Bhaveer Shah 44 20 7883 1449 [email protected]
Kasper Bartholdy Head of Global EM Strategy +44 20 7883 4907 [email protected]
Ashish Agrawal +65 6212 3405 [email protected]
Daniel Chodos +1 212 325 7708 [email protected]
Nimrod Mevorach +44 20 7888 1257 [email protected]
Martin Yu +65 6212 3448 [email protected]
Berna Bayazitoglu Head of EEMEA Economics +44 20 7883 3431 [email protected]
Alexey Pogorelov +44 20 7883 0396 [email protected]
Carlos Teixeira +27 11 012 8054 [email protected]
Alonso Cervera Head of Latin America Economics +52 55 5283 3845 [email protected]
Juan Lorenzo Maldonado +1 212 325 4245 [email protected]
Casey Reckman +1 212 325 5570 [email protected]
Alberto Rojas +52 55 5283 8975 [email protected]
Nilson Teixeira Head of Brazil Economics +55 11 3701 6288 [email protected]
Paulo Coutinho +55 11 3701-6353 [email protected]
Iana Ferrao +55 11 3701 6345 [email protected]
Leonardo Fonseca +55 11 3701 6348 [email protected]
Lucas Vilela +55 11 3701-6352 lucas.vilela @credit-suisse.com
ASIA PACIFIC DIVISION
Ray Farris, Managing Director Head of Fixed Income Research and Economics, Asia Pacific Division
+65 6212 3412 [email protected]
EMERGING ASIA ECONOMICS
Dr. Santitarn Sathirathai Head of Emerging Asia Economics +65 6212 5675 [email protected]
Vincent Chan Head of China Macro +852 2101 6568 [email protected]
Deepali Bhargava +65 6212 5699 [email protected]
Weishen Deng +852 2101 7162 [email protected]
Christiaan Tuntono +852 2101 7409 [email protected]
Michael Wan +65 6212 3418 [email protected]
JAPAN ECONOMICS
Hiromichi Shirakawa Head of Japan Economics +81 3 4550 7117 [email protected]
Takashi Shiono +81 3 4550 7189 [email protected]
14 March 2017
Brazil Economics Digest 11
Disclosure Appendix
Analyst Certification Nilson Teixeira, Paulo Coutinho, Iana Ferrao, Leonardo Fonseca and Lucas Vilela each certify, with respect to the companies or securities that the individual analyzes, that (1) the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about all of the subject companies and securities and (2) no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
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14 March 2017
Brazil Economics Digest 12
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