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Brazilian Agricultural Research CorporationBrazilian Agricultural Research Corporation

Brief Overview of the Brazilian Agricultural Sector

Brief Overview of the Brief Overview of the Brazilian Agricultural SectorBrazilian Agricultural Sector

CERRADOSAVANNAHCERRADOSAVANNAH

AMAZONAMAZONSEMI-ARIDSEMI-ARID

SUBTROPICALTEMPERATESUBTROPICALTEMPERATE

Environmental Complexes in BrazilEnvironmental Complexes in BrazilEnvironmental Complexes in Brazil

Population: 184.000.000 millionPop.Density 21 hab/km2

Total Surface: 8.511.996,3 km2

Brazil Exports ‐Oct/2004 a Mai2008‐

Soybean Complex

19,3%

Meats20,2%

Sugar10,5%

Wood Products9,2%

Cellulose/Paper7,5%

Coffee6,6% Leather

Products4,0%

Tabacco3,9%

Leather3,3%

Orange Juice2,8%

Others12,6%

Source: MAPA

1960

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Soybeans entered Brazil through the northeastern State of Bahia, coming from USA, in 1882. Nevertheless, it was only 60 years latter, in south Brazil, that the crop found favorable conditions for expansion. The first records of commercial production go back to 1941, when 640 ha were sown and 450 metric tons were produced. The production reached 100,000 metric tons in the mid 50s and 1,000,000 metric tons in 1969. By the end of the 70s the production surpassed 15 million metric tons.

19601975

196019752008

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In the 60s and 70s, when large soybean commercial production started in Brazil, plantings were concentrated in south Brazil, where soybean cropped area stabilized in the 80s, while production started to increase in Mid West Brazil. In 1970, only 2% of soybean production came from that region, increasing to 20% in 1980, to 40% in 1990, and to 58% in 2002.

Grain Production: Brazilian MidwestSavannah

9

Brazilian Agricultural Research CorporationBrazilian Agricultural Research Corporation

42 Research Units42 Research Units

10

Equator

Trop. Capricorn30o S

Trop. Cancer30o N

Input C&T

Output C&T

Labex USALabex Europe

Embrapa Africa

NAFTA38%

Mercosul48%

China & India10%

Others4%

Production 2007

World Soybean Production by Region

218,8 Mt

1212Source: CONAB Elaboração: GV Agro

Drought Impacts on Brazilian Grain ProductionDrought Impacts on Brazilian Grain Production

Losses of Losses of 27,2 million ton27,2 million ton

25%

Sowed AreaMillion of Ha

148%

Million of Ton

Production

SOJA - Paraná

1976197819801982198419861988199019921994199619982000200220042006

A N O

500800

11001400170020002300260029003200

kg/ha

050010001500200025003000350040004500

1000 ha

Rendimento Área

Parana State Parana State ––

Soybean ProductionSoybean Production

Year

YieldYield AreaArea

SOJA - Rio Grande do Sul

1976197819801982198419861988199019921994199619982000200220042006

A N O

300600900

1200150018002100240027003000

kg/ha

060012001800240030003600420048005400

1000 ha

Rendimento Área

Rio Grande do Rio Grande do SulSul

State State ––

Soybean ProductionSoybean Production

Year

YieldYield AreaArea

2003/2004 Drought 2003/2004 Drought Soybean Yield Reduction Soybean Yield Reduction

2002/03 2003/04 %

MT 4409 5164 17.12

PR 3619 3931 8.62

RS 3591 3956 10.16

Brasil 18447 21214 15.00

Area (1000ha)

2002/03 2003/04 %

12719 14973 17.72

10947 10024 -8.43

9579 5668 -40.83

51484 50023 -2.84

Production (1000 t)

2002/03 2003/04 %

2885 2899 0.51

3025 2550 -15.70

2668 1433 -46.29

2791 2358 -15.51

Yield (kg/ha)

State Production 2004 (t) Reduction (t)

Area2004 x Yield2003 PE2004 - Yield2004

PR 11.890.759 1.866.759

RS 10.552.638 4.884.638

Brasil 59.206.460 9.183.460Farias et al., 2005

2002/03 2004/05 %

MT 4410 6024 36.6

PR 3619 4082 12.8

RS 3591 4090 13.9

Brasil 18448 23104 25.24

Area (1000ha)

2002/03 2004/05 %

12719 16928 33.1

10947 9388 -14.3

9579 2311 - 75.9

51484 50195 - 2.5

Production (1000 t)

2002/03 2004/05 %

2884 2810 - 2.6

3025 2300 - 24.0

2667 565 - 78.8

2791 2173 - 22.1

Yield (kg/ha)

By State 2005 (t) Losses (t)

Area2005 x Yield2003 PE2005 - Yield2005

PR 12.348.050 2.960.050

RS 10.908.030 8.597.030

Brasil 64.483.264 14.288.264

2004/2005 Drought 2004/2005 Drought Soybean Yield Reduction Soybean Yield Reduction

Farias et al., 2005

2003/04 DirectLosses

~US$~US$ 1,8 billions1,8 billions

2004/05 DirectLosses

~US$~US$ 2,32 billions2,32 billions

IIntergovernmental ntergovernmental PPanel on anel on CClimate limate CChange (IPCC) Scenarioshange (IPCC) Scenarios

Present and Future Grain Production Areas in Brazil Present and Future Grain Production Areas in Brazil according to temperature increases forecasted by according to temperature increases forecasted by

the IPCC, and the consequent production reductionthe IPCC, and the consequent production reduction

ØØ Soil Management (e.g. NoSoil Management (e.g. No‐‐Tillage)Tillage)ØØ Plant DensityPlant DensityØØ Weed ControlWeed ControlØØ IrrigationIrrigationØØ ……etcetc……

Drought: Agronomic Strategies to Reduce Losses

Drought: Agronomic Strategies to Drought: Agronomic Strategies to Reduce LossesReduce Losses

Tolerant Cultivars Tolerant Cultivars (Classical Breeding) (Classical Breeding) ‐‐

DifficultDifficult

Tolerant Cultivars Tolerant Cultivars (Genetically Modified) (Genetically Modified) ‐‐

?!!?!!

DROUGHT ToleranceDROUGHT Tolerance

PhotosyntatesTranslocation

Nutrient Translocation

WaterTranslocation

Flowers and Legume Abscission

Gas Exchange

Tolerance with developmentTolerance with development

rd29Ard29A DREB Nos‐T

ChaperonesDehydrins

LEA

Osmoprotectants

Anti‐

oxidantes

Cor6.6/kin2rd22

StressResponsive

Gene

rd29A

Cor15a

kin1

Dr. YamaguchiDr. Yamaguchi‐‐Shinozaki GroupShinozaki Group

IsolineIsoline

NON GM NON GM 5% Soil Gravimetric 5% Soil Gravimetric

HumidityHumidity

IsolineIsoline

GM P58 GM P58 5% Soil Gravimetric 5% Soil Gravimetric

HumidityHumidity

Visual Differences: Non GM=Fast WiltingVisual Differences: Non GM=Fast Wilting

IsolineIsoline

NON GM NON GM 2.5% Soil Gravimetric 2.5% Soil Gravimetric

HumidityHumidity

IsolineIsoline

GM P58 GM P58 2.5% Soil Gravimetric 2.5% Soil Gravimetric

HumidityHumidity

Photosynthesis RatePhotosynthesis Rate HeightHeight

Photosynthesis EfficiencyPhotosynthesis Efficiency Leaf AreaLeaf Area

StomatalStomatal ConductanceConductance Dry/Fresh weightDry/Fresh weight

Yield ComponentsYield Components RWCRWC……etcetc……....

Field Tests Authorization = Tentative in November Field Tests Authorization = Tentative in November 20092009

PreciseSoil Humidity Control

Roundup Ready Soybean Adoption in Brazil

Source: Conab/Abrasem/Celeres/ISAAA

2005 2005 ‐‐Brazilian New Brazilian New BiosafetyBiosafety

LawLaw

Soybean Seeds Soybean Seeds MarketSharesMarketShares in Brazilin Brazil

44 46 4850 52 54

83 858178777586 87

57 61 72 82 92 97 10564

58

40 42 44

54514946

57

42

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020

OTHERSARGENTINABRAZILUNITED STATES

Soybean –

World Production 2020

Source: AGROCONSULT/ ABIOVE

MM ton

Anos

World Grain Stocks

Source: USDA Note: * Soybean, Corn, Wheat e Rye. In thousand of Ton

Production x Consumption*: Production x Consumption*: Totals from 2000/01 to 2007/08Totals from 2000/01 to 2007/08

World

World

China

China

Brazil

Brazil

ProductionProduction

ConsumptionConsumption

Result: Stocks ConsumptionResult: Stocks Consumption



Result: Stocks ConsumptionResult: Stocks Consumption



Result: Stocks SupplyingResult: Stocks Supplying

World projections for soybeans and corn

Brazil: Responsibility to feed the worldBrazil: Responsibility to feed the world

+ 2%+ 2%per yearper year

World(million ton) Brazil

(million ton)1.088

920 168

2005 Additional 2015

+ 7%+ 7%per yearper year

Source: Bunge.

174

89

85

2005 Additional 2015

Tropical Agriculture:Challenges for the future

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Nos próximos 10 anos. o mundo precisará de mais 160 milhões de tons de soja e milho para produzir a proteína animal que necessitará. Deduzido tudo aquilo que o resto do mundo(América do Norte. Leste Europeu. Europa. India. China. e Ocenia) pode produzir a mais. restará ao Brasil ofertar mais da metade desse montante. E o Brasil o fará. pois só ele dispõe de terras e tecnologia apropriada. para crescer a produção à media de 7% ao ano.

Embrapa SoybeanEmbrapa Soybean

290 Workers290 Workers 76 Scientists76 Scientists 350 Ha Farm350 Ha Farm

Soybean Center 24º

South Latitude

Alexandre Nepomuceno, Alexandre Nepomuceno, Ph.D. Ph.D.

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