brazilian agrometerological monitoring actual tools … · brazilian agrometerological monitoring...

Brazilian Agrometerological MonitoringActual tools and the future

Eduardo Delgado AssadEmbrapa CNPTIA - Brazil

CAgM Meeting on AgrometeorologyWMO- Nairobi Kenya 21 to 24 October 2008

Agritempo

AgritempoAgrometeorological Monitoring System

The Agrometeorological Monitoring System (Agritempo) monitors and divulges,

since 2003, the climatic risk mapping out aiming at reducing possible crop losses.

www.agritempo.gov.br

• stores and manages daily data of 1280 weather stations;

• stores historical data from 4870 meteorological stations;

• manages more than 50,000,000 records;

• stores and uses data from estimates of 1 to 15 days;

• allows the registration of users with different profiles;

• incorporates migration process and validation of data received from institutions;

• provides resources for generation of graphics, research and statistical summary;

• agricultural zoning;

• daily generation (automatic), 27 agroclimatological bulletins

• daily generation (automatic) of 810 thematic maps for all of Brazil

Characteristics

Agritempo

Agritempo

INMETCPTECUDs EmbrapaLamepe/ItepCemigCooxupéSimeparFepagroEpagriDep. Hidrologia ALEBDA+INGÁUnicampUSPInst. FlorestalUnespCDVale

Partners:

Agritempo

• National Meterology• Research Centre of

Weather and Clima• Universities (4)• Privates Companies (4)• Public Companies (4)

• Individual Farmers• Cooperatives• Energy Companies

Partners Characteristics

Obs: All datas are free

devices -gathering

data

Institutionalrepositories

Data integrated

repositories

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Integration of data from various sources

Agritempo

ways of sending and receiving data

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Fax

Station Automatic

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WEB

Base de dadosAgritempo

ConverterData

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FTP

E-mail

Converter

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Agritempo

Agritempo

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Distribution of stations by state

AgritempoPartners

Previsão de Safra

Real Network Monitoring

VirtualNetwork

Monitoring

Rain, Temperature

Network Virtual –TRMM

Advantages and Disadvantages ofestimations from virtual network

• Good estimatiom oftemperatura

• Good identification ofno rain day

• High density of data

• Bad estimation of rainquantity

• Problems to correcthumid identificationareas

Agritempo

Virtual Station TRMMVarginha - MG Real Station NatMet

Varginha - MG

T T

P PDryperiod

Dryperiod

01/01/2008 to 20/10/2008

Agritempo

Products


IrrigationNeeds-National level-State level-Countie level


Water Contents

-National level-State level-Countie level


Precipitation

-National level-State level-Countie level


PrecipitationsForecast1 day until 5 days(meteorologicalmodels)6 days to 15 days(estocasticalmodels)

-National level-State level-County level


Rain andTemperatureData critizesAnd verification

Blue- estimated dataOrange-doubtful data


Rain MapsFor All country

Brazilian Agricultural Zoning

Agribusiness GDP in 2006: US$ 180 billions (33% GDP - US$ 500 billion)

Agribusiness Exportations: US$ 35 billions (42%)Grain production in 2007 :133,4 millions tons

Program coordinated by the Department of Agriculture and EMBRAPA (National Institute for Agricultural Research) since 1995

Federal Farm Credit PolicyUS$ 8 billion (US$ 2.5 billion for small farmers

Agritempo

Loss of production: 91/92 e 92/93 (Source: IPEA/UNB)

Product S. PAULO BAHIA Northeast

Rice 30% 34% 47%

Bean 21% 34% 41%

Corn 16% 37% 71%

Soybean 16% 29% -

Soybean-Irrigated

- - 32%

Cotton 22% 22% 81%

Castor Oil - - 87%

Cause: Cause: WaterWater deficiencydeficiency in in criticalcritical phasesphases: 60% : 60%

Agritempo

Main ObjectiveDecrease the climate risks

dry spells during flowering and grain-filling (60%)excessive rain during the harvest period (30%)

ProductPlanting Calendars

Crops: Corn, Soybean, Beans, Rice (Wheat, Sorghum,

Fruits, Coffee and biofuel crops)

Periods: Dekad (10 days), Oct to Dec (Jan to Dec)

Counties / Municipal districts

Macro-regions: Central, Southeast ,South and Northeast

Risk: less than or equal to 20%

Agritempo

General Methodology

Simulation of cumulative water balance for differentsoil types, planting dates, cycle lengths, groundstations (different models (DSSAT, BIPZONSarrazon, CLIPS etc)

Decision criteria / Risk Analysis:a) WRSI during reproductive stage ≥ Threshold Value(80% of all simulated years) WRSI: Water Requirement Satisfaction IndexWRSI = actual / maximum evapotranspiration

b) Excessive rain during harvest

Agritempo

Data Base

Length of four growth stages (Initial, Vegetative, Reproductive and Maturity) for earlyand normal cultivarsLength of total growing period

Crop coefficient (Kc)

Soil water holding capacity

Rainfall

Evapotranspiration

Agritempo

CLIMATIC risks zoning Rain stations distribution

Agritempo

0

“criterion”

33ªª phenologicalphenological phasephase

0 1 2 3 4 5 33 34 35• • •days

WRS

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f wrsi(x)

1

WRSI= value

P

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Risk probability models

Actually Zoning Crops• Rice• Beans• Corn• Wheat• Soybeans• Sorghun• Coffee• Cotton• Castor Bean

• Apple• Vigna beans• Banana• Cashew nuts• Barley• Maninhot• Oil Palm (2007)• Sunflower (2007)• Peanuts (2007)• Rape seed(2007)

Agritempo

Oil Palm possible area production with low risk– Bahia State

OilOil PalmPalm PotentialPotentialOil yield 3000 Kg/ha/year

Oil 22%

Sunflower possible area production with low risk

South region

Sunflower possible area production with low risk

Others regions

SunflowerSunflowerProductionProduction(2005)(2005)[[OilOil] ] -- 44% 44%

OilOil YieldYield 430 430 kg/ha/kg/ha/yearyear

Peanuts possible area production with low risk

Oil Yield – 600 kg/ha/year

YieldYield 600kg/ha/600kg/ha/yearyear

Castor Bean possible surface production with low risk

Oil Yield ~ 1000 Kg/ha/year

Soybean possible surface production with low risk

Oil Yield 500 Kg/ha/year

Benefits after zoning

~41002564Corn

30001808soybean

After1996-2006Kg/ha

Before1990-1995Kg/ha

ProductsYield

Agritempo


Green-OptimalData plantingFrom climaticRiskszoning

Forecast system of soybean crop yieldfor Brazil


Quantify losses caused by water deficiency


Accumulation of Biomass = f(Rad.Solar, Temp., Rain)

Production of grains

Estimation of maximum productivity in each agroecological area

Pp (k

g/ha

)

Time


Results for Soybeans – BrasilHarvests: 2000/2001 to 2005/2006

Comparison with data from CONAB*

CONAB is the national company responsible to make the forecast of harvest


30.00

35.00

40.00

45.00

50.00

55.00

60.00

00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

Prod

uctio

n (m

illio

n to

ns)

AgritempoCONAB


WebAgritecAgrometeorological Monitoring System – Municipal Scale

•15 day weather forecast for all Brazilian cities;

•Monitoring the date of planting (based on agricultural zoning);

•Crop Monitoring (based on agricultural zoning);

•Virtual diagnosis of disease;

•Recommendation of cultivars;

•Recommendation for fertilization;

•Videos of farming practices;

•News.

WebAgritecAgrometeorological Monitoring System Agrometeorological Monitoring System – Municipal Scale

Grey are the optimal data planting from climatic risks zoning,and green are the optimal rain planting during the actual saison

WebAgritecAgrometeorological Monitoring System Agrometeorological Monitoring System – Municipal Scale

Green are de optimal planting date from climatic risks zoning, and the blue graphic is water balance in each date

Agritempo

Eduardo Delgado Assad

[email protected]

www.agritempo.gov.br

brazilian agrometerological monitoring actual tools … · brazilian agrometerological monitoring...

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