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Brazilian Retail NewsYear 11 - Issue # 408 - So Paulo, October, 10th, 2011

Phone: (5511) 3405-6666

Brazilian retail news 110/10/2011

Franchising segment to top R$ 100 billion next year

Brazilian franchises shall end this year with

total sales around R$ 86 billion (US$ 48.5 billion),

according to franchising association ABF. For 2012,forecasts point to a 15% YOY growth, to R$ 100

billion (US$ 56.49 billion), due to the opening of

more than 20 new shopping centers scheduled for

the next year, the income growth in smaller cities

and the 20% expansion of microfranchising chain.

H&M will not open stores in Brazil before 2013

Swedish Hennes & Mauritz, the worlds second-

largest fast fashion retailer in the world, does

not rule out Brazil as a market to be explored.

Karl-Johan Persson, president of the company,

said will continue to grow in developed markets

and in China (where there are still expansion

opportunities), but ha salso been studying Asian

markets and countries as Brazil, Argentina,

Australia and South Africa. In 2012, H&M will start

operations in two new markets: Indonesia andThailand. The retailer had already shown interest

in Brazil by 2008, but the plans were postponed

due to the global economic environment.

French cosmetics retailer LOccitane is betting

big in Brazil. The local branch is the 5th largest

in the company and has been growing by 35%

per year, opening around 20 stores yearly and

aiming to build a 130-store chain, from todays

70, in three years. The goal is to end 2011 with

90 stores running.

LOccitane increases bet in Brazil

Brazilian retail sales up 6.2% in August

Brazilian retail sales continued its steady growth pace in August, with a 6.2% expansion year-on-year,

according to data released by statistics agency IBGE. Month-on-month, sales dropped 0.4%, the worst

gure since March 2010, providing further evidence the Brazilian economy is slowing down. Year-to-date

sales have been up 7.2% over the same period in 2010.

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Brazilian Retail NewsYear 11 - Issue # 408 - So Paulo, October, 10th, 2011

Phone: (5511) 3405-6666

Brazilian retail news 210/10/2011

Time to rethink business

Marcos Gouva de Souza (mgsouza@gsmd.com.br), CEO, GS&MD Gouva de Souza

Momentum

Close to the end of the year, companies review their projects, based on perceptions, forecasts and the likelyscenarios for the near future. The Strategic Planning review exercise shall present a longer-term view and, necessarily,must be much more than a bunch of initiatives to adopt following the usual business expansion efforts.

This practice saw its importance grow in the last years, of stable and reasonably predictable economy and market,as opposed to a former period when this exercise had no meaning, due to fast changes derived from high ination, thedirect effect of global crisis in the market and the reactions of the government, looking for unusual adjustment tools.

In the Strategic Planning exercises, necessarily one must start from an outside-to-inside view of the organization,in the same time thinking deep the business moment, its virtues and weaknesses, its characteristics and forecasts.

But is instrumental the unbiased exercise of looking at the business with an approach as independent as possible,trying to see market trends and perspectives and how these elements can impact the companys reality, its products,services, distribution channels, pricing policies, distribution structure, market communications and so on.

The scenario-building is one of the tools usually used to do this exercise, with the strong merit of identifying andanticipating situations and reactions one could take.

Some basic questions regard the deep scenario changes happening in Brazil and should be present in any StrategicReview process of consumer goods-related companies:

How the evolution of employment, income, credit and consumer condence may affect business in the next years;

How will the market share of the several income brackets in the purchase of products and services will evolvein the next years;

How will the market share of each region and state in the potential purchase of products and services will evolvein the next years;

How will the growing attractiveness of the Brazilian market increase the number of global competitors and howwill it impact the companys business;

How will the new behaviors of younger emerging market segments, more and more digital in its attitudes andreferences, impact the perception of brands, products, store formats and sales channels in the next years;

How will the pressure for reduction of informality affect the competitive ability of some brands and businesses;

How will the new digital relationship, promotion and sales channels change the product and services distributionmatrix;

How the increasing mass of credit will inuence the evolution of new segments of consumers. What is the likelyimpact of a rise in overdue payments;

How will the rise in the competitive pressure affect prices and market conditions;

How to develop alternatives to bring in new market potential in the emerging segments, specially in the North,Northeast and Midwest regions of the country;

How to face the consolidation trend in the most different business segments, direct consequence of theincreasing competition, pressure on informal business and relevance of credit and relationship tools, repositioningthe competitive scenario.

There is a broad list of questions and we shall continue exploring it in the next articles, but the central facts isthe sum of transformations the global and domestic scenarios brings to the market creates a strong necessity toreview everything that has been done and is intended to do, so that opportunities may be capitalized and threatsneutralized, under the risk of imagining driving business regardless the global reality.

Something as reckless as letting a pilot who has only experienced lessons in ight simulators to pilot a placesingle-handed, no matter how advanced tools he relies on.

Brazilian Retail News (BRN) is a weekly newsletter published by GS&MD - Gouva de Souza with the most important news

on the Brazilian retailing. The content can be freely used, once the source is quoted. If you want any information on BRN or ourservices, please send an email to publicacoes@gsmd.com.br or access GS&MD - Gouva de Souza at www.gsmd.com.br.

Gouva de Souza & MD Desenvolvimento Empresarial Ltda.

Av. Paulista, 171 - 10 oor

Paraso So Paulo Brazil Zip Code: 01311-904Phone: (5511) 3405-6666 Fax: (5511) 3263-0066