Breaking Bad Equilibrium John Willis Twitter: botchagalupe GitHub: botchagalupe

It’s a strategy that all the players in the game can adopt and converge on, but it won’t produce a desirable outcome

for anyone.

Bad Equilibrium

• Economics• Wealth• Markets

• Work Life Balance• Techical Debt• Cooperation• Risk • Burnout

Equilibrium

Good Bad

Movie Fun

Game Theory Fun

A concept of game theory where the optimal outcome of a game is one

where no player has an incentive to deviate from his chosen strategy after

considering an opponent's choice.

Nash Equilibrium

Sarah

Steven

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Nash Equilibrium

Is a state of allocation of resources in which it is impossible to make any one individual better off without making at

least one individual worse off.

Pareto Efficiency

A situation is inefficient if someone can be made better off even after

compensating those made worse off.

Pareto Inefficiency

Ibrahim

Nick

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Why Michael Lewis?

Forty years ago, Israeli psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky wrote a series of breathtakingly original studies undoing our assumptions about the decision-making process. Their papers showed the ways in which the human mind erred, systematically,

when forced to make judgments in uncertain situations. Their work created the field of behavioral economics, revolutionized Big Data studies, advanced evidence-

based medicine, led to a new approach to government regulation, and made much of Michael Lewis’s own

work possible. Kahneman and Tversky are more responsible than anybody for the powerful trend to mistrust human intuition and defer to algorithms.

• Human Irrationality • Heuristics • System 1 (fast) • System 2 (slow) • Availability Bias • Regression to the Mean • Overconfidence • Illusion of Validity

• Undesirable Outcomes• Pareto Inefficient • Nash Equilibrium

• Human Irrationality• Cognitive Bias• Overconfidence

Bad Equilibrium

Good Bad

How to Change the Game?

• Make work visible • Manage WIP• Manage Flow• Create high trust• Embrace failure

Devops Advanced

Good Better

Really Hard Stuff

Good Excellent

• Increase Headcount• Increase Buffers• Rethink SLA’s• Psychological Saftey

You are either building a learning organization…

or you will be losing to someone who is…

Andrew Clay Shafer