breaking through the bottleneck
DESCRIPTION
Transportation to Make Stewart a Viable New York AirportTRANSCRIPT
Breaking Through the BottleneckTransportation to Make Stewart a Viable New York Airport
GEORGE MASON UNIVERSITYDR. LANCE SHERRY, FACULTY SPONSOR
Amar Zabarah
Brittany Callahan
Claudia Antezano
David Lamartin
Renato Henriques
Shakeeb Rahman
2
• Background Information
• Problem Statement
• Capacity, Delays & Demands
• Design Alternatives
• Methodology
• Results
• Sensitivity Analysis
• Future Work
Outline
3
Background Information
The New York Metroplex & Stewart International Airport
4
BACKGROUND INFORMATION
NYC Population Growing; Airport Capacity is Not
• Made up of three airports:
• John F. Kennedy International
• LaGuardia International
• Newark Liberty International
• Forms the busiest, most crowded airport hub in the world.
• Population expected to grow by 2-3 M in the next 20 years.
• Increasing airport capacity is a significant challenge.
0M
5M
10M
15M
20M
25M
1990 2000 2008 - 2030
NYC Population Growth
Po
pul
atio
n in
Mill
ions
Year5 Data from US Census Data
BACKGROUND INFORMATION
Stewart International AirportTHE UNUSED RESOURCE
• Port Authority of NY/NJ acquired 90 year lease in 2007.
• SWF is located 60 miles (~96km) north of Manhattan.
• Getting airlines to operate out of SWF has proved to be difficult.
• Thus, Stewart lies under utilized, always operating well below its capacity.
Runways 2
Current Operations(passengers/day)
2k
Max Capacity(passengers/day)
54 - 137k
6
Dis
tanc
e ~
96km
Problem Statement
There is a need for a transportation system that is
capable of linking Stewart International Airport to
Manhattan within 1 to 3 years to make Stewart more
attractive to the Manhattan traveling populace.
7
BACKGROUND INFORMATION
Scope of Study
In
• Alternate modes of
transportation
• Ideal vessel characteristics
• Only transit from gate to gate
• Implementation time of 1-3 years
Out
• NYC airport delays
• Hybrid system
• Security, commute to boarding
terminals, luggage
handling, and parking
• Boarding terminals
8
9
Pick up Point
10
Capacities, Delays, & Demands
Understanding Capacity, Delays, and Demands.
11
CAPACITIES, DELAYS & DEMANDS
Airport Capacity
• Airport capacity is defined as the number of movements an airport can handle.
• 1 movement = 1 arrival or departure
• Capacity is dynamic; it is difficult to declare an airport’s capacity.
• However, we can show the probability that an airport will be able to handle a certain capacity given its history.
12 SWF Daily Movement Data from Project HummingBird Research
0!
2!
4!
6!
8!
10!
12!
14!
0! 2! 4! 6! 8! 10! 12! 14! 16! 18! 20! 22!
Ave
rag
e M
ove
me
nts!
Hour of Day!
SWF Daily Movements, 2007!
Declared Capacity! Actual Operations!
CAPACITIES, DELAYS & DEMANDS
Delays
• ρ is the ratio of demand to capacity.
• A system will commonly begin to experience stochastic delays as ρ approaches 1.
• Stochastic delays can become excessive when ρ ≥ 0.8.
• We assume that when ρ ≥ 0.8, it is likely to contribute to stochastic delays.
13
CAPACITIES, DELAYS & DEMANDS
Passenger Demand
• Consumer base is calculated by applying this ρ value to 2007 NYC airport traffic.
• Take the product of the average movements that exceed that 0.8 threshold with the average number of passengers per flight.
• Sum for all airports.
• There are a total of 22,500 passengers each day that exceed the 0.8 capacity in the NYC airports.
14
Airport Movements ρ > 0.8 per day
Average PAX per flight
Total PAXper flight
EWR 81 71 5,751
JFK 109 79 8,611
LGA 138 59 8,142
Total ~22,500
Data from Project HummingBird Research
Data from Project HummingBird Research
0!
2!
4!
6!
8!
10!
12!
14!
0! 1! 2! 3! 4! 5! 6! 7! 8! 9! 10! 11! 12! 13! 14! 15! 16! 17! 18! 19! 20! 21! 22! 23!Ave
rag
e M
ove
me
nts
ove
r 0.8
Th
resh
old!
Hour of Day!
Excess Flights for NYC Airports!
EWR! JFK! LGA!
CAPACITIES, DELAYS & DEMANDS
NYC Airport Movement Overflow (when ρ ≥ 0.8)
15 Data from Project HummingBird Research
0!
2!
4!
6!
8!
10!
12!
14!
0! 1! 2! 3! 4! 5! 6! 7! 8! 9! 10! 11! 12! 13! 14! 15! 16! 17! 18! 19! 20! 21! 22! 23!Ave
rag
e M
ove
me
nts
ove
r 0.8
Th
resh
old!
Hour of Day!
Excess Flights for NYC Airports!
EWR! JFK! LGA!
CAPACITIES, DELAYS & DEMANDS
NYC Airport Passenger Overflow
16
Airport Movements ρ > 0.8 per day
Average Passengers
per flight
Total Passengers
per day
EWR 81 71 5,751
JFK 109 79 8,611
LGA 138 59 8,142
Total ~22,500
Data from Project HummingBird Research
CAPACITIES, DELAYS & DEMANDS
17
0!
2!
4!
6!
8!
10!
12!
14!
16!
18!
360! 420! 480! 540! 600! 660! 720! 780! 840! 900! 960! 1020!1080!1140!1200!1260!1320!1380!
Pa
sse
ng
ers
(p
er
min
ute
)!
Minute of Day!
Passenger Demand per Minute of Day!
Design Alternatives
The Sikorsky S-92, Eurocopter Super Puma, Austal Ferry, and the SkyCat-50
18
DESIGN ALTERNATIVES
Vessels
HelicopterSuper Puma
HelicopterSikorsky S-92
High-Speed FerryAustal Ferry
Air VehicleSkyCat-50
Purchase Cost(millions)
$13.7 $18.9 $14 $50
Seating Capacity 20 21 450 200
Transit Time(minutes)
22 20 90 45
19
Methodology
Value Hierarchy, Simulation, & Financial Analysis Financial Analysis Simulation
Value Hierarchy
20
METHODOLOGY
Value Hierarchy
21 Representative Stakeholders
METHODOLOGY
Utility Functions
• Derived utility functions from our value hierarchy:
22
METHODOLOGY
Simulation
Continuous Simulation
23
24
25
26
Results
Vessel Performance, Costs Analysis,& Final Utility Rating
27
28
RESULTS
Ferry Queueing Time per Vessel Added
0!
60!
120!
180!
240!
300!
360!
420!
480!
540!
1! 3! 5! 7! 9! 11! 13! 15! 17! 19! 21! 23! 25!
Ave
rag
e P
asse
ng
er
Se
rvic
e T
ime
(m
inu
tes)!
Number of Vessels!
Service Times for Transportation Alternatives!
Ferry! Sikorsky S-92! SkyCat-50! Super Puma!
29
0!
2500!
5000!
7500!
10000!
12500!
15000!
17500!
20000!
22500!
1! 3! 5! 7! 9! 11! 13! 15! 17! 19! 21! 23! 25!
Pa
sse
ng
ers
Se
rvic
ed!
Number of Vessels!
Passenger Throughput "
for Transportation Alternatives!
Ferry! Sikorsky S-92! SkyCat-50! Super Puma!
30
0!
2500!
5000!
7500!
10000!
12500!
15000!
17500!
20000!
22500!
0! 100! 200! 300! 400! 500! 600!
Pa
sse
ng
ers
Se
rvic
ed!
Trip Count!
Passenger Throughput vs. Trip Count!
Ferry! Sikorsky S-92! SkyCat-50! Super Puma!
31
Emissions and Noise
32
Super Puma Sikorsky S-92 Austal Ferry SkyCat-50
Vessels 16 14 11 15
Frequency(trips / day)
518 520 49 111
Emissions(kilograms / day)
885 1,046 476 159
Noise (SEL dB 200ft)
94 90 89 70
Super Puma Sikorsky S-92 Austal Ferry SkyCat-50
Vessels 16 14 11 15
Fuel $79.2M $77.2M $31.0M $16.4M
Training $0.5M $0.5M $0.6M $0.3M
Crew $2.6M $2.3M $8.5M $6.6M
Maintenance $116.8M $85.7M $6.2M $6.8M
Insurance $7.5M $7.9M $2.7M $22.5M
Yearly Payment $15.2M $18.4M $10.7M $83.4M
Cost / Year $221.8M $192.0M $59.7M $136.0M
Cost / Passenger $53.2 $47.9 $7.8 $17.633
RESULTS
System Costs per Year
RESULTS
Utility Scores
Utility for Transportation AlternativesUtility for Transportation Alternatives
SkyCat-50 0.80
Austal Ferry 0.73
AS332 Super Puma 0.39
Sikorsky S-92 0.3734
0!
0.1!
0.2!
0.3!
0.4!
0.5!
0.6!
0.7!
0.8!
0! 50! 100! 150! 200! 250!
Uti
lity!
Cost/year (millions USD)!
System Utility!
Ferry! Sikorsky S-92! SkyCat-50! Super Puma!
35
Sensitivity Analysis
Effects on Performance & Suitability
36
37
Sensitivity Analysis on Performance
38
Sensitivity Analysis on Flexibility
39
Sensitivity Analysis on Suitability
40
Sensitivity Analysis on Noise
Further Analysis
Parametric Analysis on the effects of Cruising Speed and Capacity on Service Time.
41
42
Super Puma
Sikorsky S-92
SkyCat-50
Ferry
Ideal Vessel
• To keep service time below 60 minutes, an ideal vessel will have:
• Seating range of 50-200 people
• Cruising speed above 105 km/h
43
Future Work
Future Work
44
Future Work
• Hybrid System that uses two or more vessel types
• Further research on vessels (Safety, MTTR and MTBF)
• Terminal Locations
• Secondary transportation systems (shuttle service)
• Weather tolerance
45
Thank you for listening
46
Backup Slides
47
CONCLUSIONS
Vessel Performance
48
Super Puma Sikorsky S-92 Austal Ferry SkyCat-50
Vessels 16 14 11 15
Pax Throughput(per day)
11k 11k 22k 22k
Service + Queue(minutes/passenger)
189 197 100 49
Frequency(trips / year)
181k 182k 17k 39k
Noise (SEL dB 200ft)
94 90 89 70
Emissions(tonnes / year)
310 366 167 56
Cost / Year $221.8 $192.0 $59.7 $136.0
Cost / Passenger $53.2 $47.9 $7.8 $17.6
Cost Estimating Relationships
49
HelicopterSuper Puma
HelicopterSikorsky S-92
High-Speed FerryAustal Ferry
Air VehicleSkyCat-50
Fuel($/Hour) $1,008 $1,157 $1,203 $562
Crew ($/Vessel) $161,138 $161,138 $777,000 $437,000
Maintenance($/Hour) $1,486 $1,285 $240 $234
DESIGN ALTERNATIVES
Vessels
HelicopterSuper Puma
HelicopterSikorsky S-92
High-Speed FerryAustal Ferry
Air VehicleSkyCat-50
Fuel($/Hour)
$1,008 $1,157 $1,203 $562
Crew ($/Vessel)
$161,138 $161,138 $777,000 $437,000
Maintenance($/Hour)
$1,486 $1,285 $240 $234
50
51
52
53
54
55AIRPORT DIAGRAM08157
ARMY
720
74^06’W74^07’W
74^08’W
AIRPORT DIAGRAM
08157
CAUTION: BE ALERT TO RUNWAY
CROSSING CLEARANCES.
READBACK OF ALL RUNWAY HOLDING
INSTRUCTIONS IS REQUIRED.
NEWBURGH, NEW YORK
(SWF)STEWART INTLNEWBURGH/
ARMY
HELIPAD
ELEV
437
GENERAL
AVIATION
RAMP
PASSENGER
TERMINAL
34
0.6% UP
C
F
A0.4% DOWN
9
A-1
FIELD
ELEV
41^30’N
H
MARINE CORPS
HANGAR
091.8^
ELEV
467
FIRE
STATION
342.8^
6004 X 150
162.8^
B
A
A
A-5
H
H
271.8^
11,817 X 150
A-4
G
G
XX
X
16
27
CARGO AREA
A
A-2
A-3
L
491
ATIS 124.575
STEWART TOWER
121.0 254.4
GND CON
121.9VAR 13 .4^
74^05’W
41^31’N
NEWBURGH, NEW YORK
(SWF)STEWART INTLNEWBURGH/
AL-450 (FAA)
H
X
ANG
RESTRICTED
AREA
J
K
M
ELEV
471
JANUARY 2005
ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE
0.0^E
RWY 9-27
S85, D175, ST175, DT350, DDT775
RWY 16-34
S120, D190, ST175, DT350, DDT800
Rwy 9 ldg 8818’
Rwy 27 ldg 9817’
Rwy 16 ldg 5606’
Rwy 34 ldg 5606’
TWR
593
NE
-2, 2
3 O
CT
2008 to
20 N
OV
2008
NE
-2, 23 O
CT
2008 to 2
0 N
OV
2008
FIRE
STATIONGENERAL AVIATION
TERMINAL
NWS
RWY 4-22, 13-31
S80, D170, ST175, DT360
TRANSIENT
PARKING
13
ELEV
13 135.5^
22
ELEV
12
225.4^
7001 X 150
7003 X 150
CONTROL
TOWER
161
R
U
R
AA
AA
AA
AA
P G
G
G
P
BBCC
BB
BB
D
YH
HE
DD
E
DD
B
B
D
E
F
G
Q
E
B
R
B
A
G
A
GG A
H
B
J
A
B
L
K
JANUARY 2005
ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE
0.0^ E
CAUTION: BE ALERT TO RUNWAY CROSSING CLEARANCES.
READBACK OF ALL RUNWAY HOLDING INSTRUCTIONS IS REQUIRED.
ATIS 127.05
ATIS ARR 125.95
LA GUARDIA TOWER
118.7 263.0
GND CON
121.7 263.0
CLNC DEL
135.2
315.5^
31
ELEV
7
GENERAL AVIATION
MAINTENANCE
& BASE FACILITIES
045.4^
AIR CARRIER MAINTENANCE
& BASE FACILITIES
TERMINAL
BUILDING
AIR CARRIER
MAINTENANCE
& BASE FACILITIES
AA
AA
Y
CY
YY
Y
B
B
ZA
ZAB
A
ZA
M
M
M
N
NA
A
B
B
W
V
M
L
FIELD
ELEV
21
AIRPORT DIAGRAM
AIRPORT DIAGRAMNEW YORK, NEW YORK
NEW YORK, NEW YORK
(LGA)
(LGA)
LA GUARDIA
LA GUARDIA
NEW YORK/
NEW YORK/
AL-289 (FAA)
DD
AC
40^47’N
40^46’N73^52’W
73^53’W
07130
07130
CC
CY
P
T
J
S
FF
FF
Z
Z
V
TRANSIENT
PARKING
AIRCRAFT TAXIING ON TAXIWAY B FOR RUNWAY 4 DEPARTURE,
MAY BE INSTRUCTED TO HOLD AT THE ILS HOLD LINE.
ILS HOLD
CAUTION:
LAHSO
LAHSO
EMAS
324 X 170
4
EMAS
272 X 170
VAR 13 .3^W
NE
-2, 2
3 O
CT
2008 to
20 N
OV
2008
NE
-2, 23 O
CT
2008 to 2
0 N
OV
2008
56
Q
QH
H
QG
QF
PE
13R
PD
QD
PC
PB
QC
QB
PA
P
P
P
P
Q
Q
H
ARFF
N
N
MB
MA
A
NA
BA
NB
NC
AA
A
A
M
B
B
LA
L L
INTERNATIONAL
ARRIVAL
TERMINAL
U.S CUSTOMS
197
CONTROL
TOWER
338
K
KA
A
A
A
B
B
B
H
G
FF
11351 X 150
Y
Y
Y
Y
H
G
Y
YA
FA
F
H
JZ
ELEV 12
K
K
KB
ELEV 12
4L
044.1^
314.1^
31L
4R
FIELD
ELEV
1340^37’N
73^47’W
40^38’N
73^49’W
73^46’W73^45’W
40^39’N
40^40’N
73^48’W
8400 X 200
224.1^
22LELEV
13
31R
044.1^
ELEV
13
E
E
FB
ZA
E E
ELEV
12
C
C
C
C
CH
D
W
CD
CC
CB
CA
ELEV
13
13L
UA
CB
V
V
VA
W
WA
DA
224.1^
H
EAZA
B
E
D
10000 X 150
B
TB
TA
A
T
B
A
S
TT
RR S
SC
SD S
SE
H
SB
SAGENERAL
AVIATION
TERMINAL
14572 X 150
K
KK
K
134.1^
CB
Rwy 13L ldg 9095’
Rwy 13R ldg 11966’
Rwy 22R ldg 8655’
Rwy 31L ldg 11248’
Rwy 31R ldg 8970’
JANUARY 2005
ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE
0.0^E
CAUTION: BE ALERT TO
RUNWAY CROSSING CLEARANCES.
READBACK OF ALL RUNWAY
HOLDING INSTRUCTIONS IS REQUIRED.
ELEV
12 134.0^
RWYS 4R-22L, 4L-22R, 13R-31L, 13L-31R
S100, D185, ST175, DT550, DDT823
22R
AUX ARFF
AIRPORT DIAGRAM
AIRPORT DIAGRAM
(JFK)
(JFK)
JOHN F. KENNEDY INTL
JOHN F. KENNEDY INTL
AL-610 (FAA)
FB
314.1^
R
Q
B
U
J
NEW YORK /
NEW YORK, NEW YORK
NEW YORK, NEW YORK
NEW YORK /
A B
B
B
A
CE
W
Z
VV
X X X X
08269
U
A
Z
08269
U
EMAS
392 X 226
VAR 13.3 ^W
ASDE-X survei l lance system in use:
Pi lo ts should operate t ransponders
wi th mode C on a l l twys and rwys.
EMAS
405 X 227
CAT 2
HOLD
ATIS ARR 128.725
NE 117.7
SW 115.4
DEP 115.1
KENNEDY TOWER
Rwys 4R-22L and 13L-31R
119.1 281.55
Rwys 4L-22R and 13R-31L
123.9 281.55
GND CON
121.9 348.6
CLNC DEL
135.05
NE
-2, 2
3 O
CT
2008 to
20 N
OV
2008
NE
-2, 23 O
CT
2008 to 2
0 N
OV
2008
P. A. ADMIN BLDG
ARFF EQUIPMENT
AIRPORT DIAGRAM07242
NEWARK, NEW JERSEY
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL (EWR)
AIRPORT DIAGRAM
07242
ATIS
115.7 134.825
NEWARK TOWER
118.3 257.6
GND CON
121.8
CLNC DEL
118.85
AL-285 (FAA)
Rwy 29 ldg 6502’
Rwy 4L ldg 8460’
Rwy 22R ldg 9560’
Rwy 4R ldg 8810’
Rwy 22L ldg 8207’
GENERAL
AVIATION PARKING
NEWARK, NEW JERSEY
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL
AREA 340
AIRCRAFT PARKING
(EWR)
193
TERMINAL A
TERMINAL B
UPS
CARGO
FEDEX
CARGO
40 42’ N
40 41’ N
74 11’ W 74 10’ W
4R
P
RF
J
G
G
RE
A
B
11000 X 150
RD
RC
EE
E
F
P
D
A
RB
RB
N
C
N
PA
B
B
N
V
V
AA
P
PA
FE
A
RAUP
A
ELEV
11
PC
PB
PD
PB
PD
FD
P
P
PC
PD
PB
PA
B
WILBURAMELIA LINDY
FIELD
ELEV
CONTROL TOWER
BALL PARK
18
PARKING
AREA
15
TERMINAL C
11
UB
ZZ
UU
W
Y
22L22R
R
SS
S
R
R
M
W
Y
Y
Y
YL
L
CC
ZB
P
K
K
J
J
B
B
B
A
A
A
RJ
RH
RN
218.9^
ELEV
9
BBT
Q
WW
P
6800 X 150
RL
RM
U
SS
S
Z
RK
DK
DL
DM
H
Q
Z
29
Z
ELEV
11
H
10000 X 150
LAHSO
LAHSO
LAHSO
ELEV
11
ELEV
11
4L
KK
JANUARY 2005
ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE
0.0^ E
CAT
2
RG
K
P
P
S
M
038.9^ 038.9^
218.9^
108.0^
288.0^
CAUTION: BE ALERT TO RUNWAY
CROSSING CLEARANCES.
READBACK OF ALL RUNWAY
HOLDING INSTRUCTIONS IS
REQUIRED.
VAR 13 .1^ W
RWYs 4L-22R, 4R-22L
D191, ST175, DT358, DDT873
RWY 11-29
S191, D191, ST175, DT358, TT568, DDT873
NE
-2, 1
7 J
AN
2008 to
14 F
EB
2008
NE
-2, 17 J
AN
2008 to 1
4 F
EB
2008
57
Primary Secondary Both
EWR 37% 4% 41%
JFK 25% 74% 99%
LGA 31% 10% 41%
SWF 7% 1% 8%
Why Manhattan & Stewart?
58
EVM
59
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