brian dangerfield centre for or & applied statistics salford business school university of...
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Brian Dangerfield Centre for OR & Applied Statistics Salford Business School University of Salford, UK
(Email: [email protected])
BACKGROUND MATERIAL FOR ‘BRIDGING THE GAP’ PROJECT
CAREER BACKGROUND ETC.
• Started in industrial OR• Been involved with SD since 1970’s• Exec Editor of SD Review since 2002• Role in this project is advisory• Opportunities you might grasp:
– Research Problems paper– Upcoming 2008 International SD Conference
HIV/AIDS RESEARCH
MILESTONES IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE HIV/AIDS MODEL
Number of Year (quarter) of
Feature equations (approx) introduction
Project-based model 13 1987(2)
Variable infectivity 20 1989(1)
Heterogeneity & changing behaviour 47 1990(2)
Reporting delay & fitting model to data 70 1992(2)
Treatment effect & removals / additions 120 1997(4)
Health care sector 190 1998(4)
Introduction of HAART 300 1999(2)
Effects of regression in behaviour
after HAART (fitting to HIV data) 360 2001(3)
HIV/AIDS
• JORS 41: (1990)• In: “Models for Infectious Human Diseases” V. Isham
and G. Medley Eds., C.U.P. (1996)• EU Concerted Action Report: RIVM (1997)• Recovering the AIDS Incubation Time Distribution
from Right-Censored Data SDR 15: (1999)• HAART SDR 17: (2001)
RE-CONFIGURING HEALTH SERVICES
• JORS 56: (2005)• JHSRP 10: (2005)
ECONOMIC MODELLING
Map of Borneo
Model purpose
How and over what time-scale can the State of Sarawak best manage the transition from a production-based economy to a knowledge-based economy and thereby improve international competitiveness?
DYNAMIC HYPOTHESIS: high-level map
Primary & SecondaryEducation
HigherEducation
(Arts)
HigherEducation(Science)
VocationalEducation
(Sub-professional)
R & DCentres
(Exemplars)
Primary Industry
(Agric; Forestry;Mining; M/facturing)
Knowledge-basedIndustry & Services
High Value-added; Biotech; Medicine
SecondaryIndustry
(Transport; Storage;Retail; Finance &
Insurance)
BroadbandCabling (Kms)
Number of PC’s
State Incentives
FederalFunds
ICT Infrastructure
StateRevenue
SUPPLY
DEMAND
COMMSINFRASTRUCTUREF
DI
Closures?
Leakage
Overseas?
Skills/Tech Transfer Money
Capital EquipmentHuman Resources
Sectors of the model • Population• Education & Human capital• Workforce (main view )
• Workforce (measures of performance )• R&D/ ICT Infrastructure/k-industries• Manufacturing; Services (tourism) & GDP• Timber Production: trees• Timber Production: downstream processing• Palm Oil: trees• Palm Oil: products• Sago production• LNG & petroleum production• State Revenue & spending
Dissemination
• Various conference presentations
• ICFAI Journal of Knowledge Management
3: (2005)
• Article in “Complex Decision-Making: Theory & Practice”, H Qudrat-Ullah, MJ Spector & P Davidsen (Eds) Springer, NY (2007)
CURRENTLY….
• “Sustained competitiveness in the UK Construction Industry”
• EPSRC funded & collaborative with Reading & Loughborough IMRC’s
• £1.5m budget. SD modelling a major component
• See www.thebigideas.org.uk
Contracts onOffer in the
Market
Contracts Won ButNot Started Work in Progress
New ContractsReleased
ContractsAllocated
Contracts Start ContractsCompleted
CompetitivenessIndex
fraction allocatedto firm
delay in startingcontracts
delay in completingcontracts
Contractors Model
• July 20-24 2008 (Athenaeum Intercontinental)
• My role is Programme Chair
• Two opportunities:– ‘Developmental papers’– Workshops on the Thursday (24th)
• See www.systemdynamics.org
ISDC 2008 in ATHENS
QUESTIONS?….