bridging food security_allen_prosperi
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Bridging Food Security and Sustainable Development: Systemic framework and expert consultation - Presentation by Thomas Allen, Bioversity International & Paolo Prosperi, CIHEAM-IAMM November 4th – 5th 2014, Agropolis International, Montpellier Visit 'Metrics of Sustainable Diets and Food Systems' Symposium webpage. http://www.bioversityinternational.org/metrics-sustainable-diets-symposium/TRANSCRIPT
Bridging Food Security and Sustainable Development: Systemic framework and expert consultationThomas Allen, Bioversity International & Paolo Prosperi, CIHEAM-IAMMNovember 4th – 5th, Agropolis International, Montpellier
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Objectives
Address gaps in our understanding of what constitutes a sustainable diet and how it relates to food systems
Help build a common language among the scientific community on sustainable diets and food systems
Identify a process for developing metrics and guidelines aimed at measuring the sustainability of diets and food systems
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Why metrics?
What are metrics?
An organized system of information combined to provide a perspective
What is counted is what counts...
Metrics target three principal objectives:Inform civil society, industry, public officials and all stakeholdersMeasure progress toward defined goalsAid decision-making processesSource: Fanzo et al. (2012)
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Constructing metrics
Who are the users?
A set of measurements for policy makers
“What is badly defined is likely to be badly measured”
Developing a theoretical framework Defining the concepts Structuring its elements Identifying selection criteria
The selection process should ideally be based on what is desirable to measure
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Research design
Develop a Framework
Review and list 1,500 indicators Focus group: Set up a small panel of
experts to discuss framework, shortlist 136 indicators and test an online questionnaire
Delphi online survey: Set up a large panel of experts to discuss framework and identify a suite of 24 indicators
A workshop to further discuss key results and gaps
Framework
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Sustainable diets are those diets with low
environmental impacts which contribute to food and
nutrition security and to healthy life for present and
future generations.
Source: FAO and Bioversity International (2012)
Sustainable diets protect and respect biodiversity
and ecosystems while being culturally acceptable,
accessible, affordable, nutritionally adequate, safe,
and healthy.
A nutrition-driven perspective
Developing sustainable solutions to improved nutrition
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A system-orientated approach
Diets – and related outcomes – are the results of complex interactions among interdependent components within food systems
The concept of sustainability evolved from an approach to agriculture to a system property (Hansen, 1996)
Sustainability as the ability of a system to maintain or enhance its essential
outcomes over time
Promoting economically, socially and environmentally sustainable food systems that concurrently ensure food and nutrition security
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A Social-Ecological System
Food systems can best be conceptualized as Coupled Human-Environment Systems (Ericksen, 2008)
Preserving essential human and natural assets and the flows of services they provide is key
It requires understanding the interconnectedness of the food system with the wider environment, climate change, land use, global markets and wider societal issue
Source: Community conservation
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GECAFS food systems framework
Socioeconomic DRIVERSChanges in:
Demographics, EconomicsSocio-political context,
Cultural contextScience & Technology
GEC DRIVERSChanges in:
Land cover & soils, Atmospheric Comp., Climate variability & means,
Water availability and quality,Nutrient availability and cycling,
Biodiversity, Sea currents & salinity, Sea level
‘Natural’ DRIVERS
e.g. Volcanoes Solar cycles
DRIVER Interactions
Socioeconomic feedbackse.g. livelihood, social cohesion
Environmental feedbackse.g. water quality, GHGs
Food System ACTIVITIESProducing food
Processing & Packaging foodDistributing & Retailing food
Consuming food
Food System OUTCOMESContribution to
Social Welfare
EnvironWelfare
Food Utilisation
Food Access
Food Availability
Source: Ericksen, 2008; GECAFS, 2009
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Socioeconomic feedbackse.g. livelihood, social cohesion
‘Natural’ DRIVERS
e.g. Volcanoes Solar cycles
DRIVER Interactions
Food System ACTIVITIESProducing food
Processing & Packaging foodDistributing & Retailing food
Consuming food
Food System OUTCOMESContribution to
Social Welfare
EnvironWelfareFood
UtilisationFood
Access
Food Availability
Environmental feedbackse.g. water quality, GHGs
Socioeconomic DRIVERSChanges in:
Demographics, EconomicsSocio-political context,
Cultural contextScience & Technology
GEC DRIVERSChanges in:
Land cover & soils, Atmospheric Comp., Climate variability & means,
Water availability and quality,Nutrient availability and cycling,
Biodiversity, Sea currents & salinity, Sea level
DRIVERS
GECAFS Food Systems framework
Source: adapted from Ericksen, 2008; GECAFS, 2009
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Socioeconomic feedbackse.g. livelihood, social cohesion
‘Natural’ DRIVERS
e.g. Volcanoes Solar cycles
DRIVER Interactions
Environmental feedbackse.g. water quality, GHGs
Socioeconomic DRIVERSChanges in:
Demographics, EconomicsSocio-political context,
Cultural contextScience & Technology
GEC DRIVERSChanges in:
Land cover & soils, Atmospheric Comp., Climate variability & means,
Water availability and quality,Nutrient availability and cycling,
Biodiversity, Sea currents & salinity, Sea level
Food System ACTIVITIESProducing food
Processing & Packaging foodDistributing & Retailing food
Consuming food
Food System OUTCOMESContribution to
Social Welfare
EnvironWelfareFood
UtilisationFood
Access
Food Availability
DRIVERS OUTCOMES
Feedback
FeedbackGECAFS
Source: adapted from Ericksen, 2008; GECAFS, 2009
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Source: adapted from Rastoin and Ghersi, 2010; Ericksen, 2008; GECAFS, 2009
Socioeconomic feedbackse.g. livelihood, social cohesion
‘Natural’ DRIVERS
e.g. Volcanoes Solar cycles
DRIVER Interactions
Food System ACTIVITIESProducing food
Processing & Packaging foodDistributing & Retailing food
Consuming food
Food System OUTCOMESContribution to
Social Welfare
EnvironWelfareFood
UtilisationFood
Access
Food Availability
Environmental feedbackse.g. water quality, GHGs
Socioeconomic DRIVERSChanges in:
Demographics, EconomicsSocio-political context,
Cultural contextScience & Technology
GEC DRIVERSChanges in:
Land cover & soils, Atmospheric Comp., Climate variability & means,
Water availability and quality,Nutrient availability and cycling,
Biodiversity, Sea currents & salinity, Sea level
External variables
Socioeconomic DRIVERSChanges in:
Demographics, etc.
GEC DRIVERSChanges in:Land cover & soils, etc.
Fo
od
Sys
tem
OU
TC
OM
ES
Co
ntr
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tion
to
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Acc
ess
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Internal variables
CONTROL VARIABLES
Food System STATE VARIABLES
Feedback
FeedbackINPUTS
OUTPUTS
Adapted framework
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Socioeconomic feedbackse.g. livelihood, social cohesion
‘Natural’ DRIVERS
e.g. Volcanoes Solar cycles
DRIVER Interactions
Food System ACTIVITIESProducing food
Processing & Packaging foodDistributing & Retailing food
Consuming food
Food System OUTCOMESContribution to
Social Welfare
EnvironWelfareFood
UtilisationFood
Access
Food Availability
Environmental feedbackse.g. water quality, GHGs
Socioeconomic DRIVERSChanges in:
Demographics, EconomicsSocio-political context,
Cultural contextScience & Technology
GEC DRIVERSChanges in:
Land cover & soils, Atmospheric Comp., Climate variability & means,
Water availability and quality,Nutrient availability and cycling,
Biodiversity, Sea currents & salinity, Sea level
External variables
Socioeconomic DRIVERSChanges in:
Demographics, etc.
GEC DRIVERSChanges in:Land cover & soils, etc.
Fo
od
Sys
tem
OU
TC
OM
ES
Co
ntr
ibu
tion
to
So
cial
W
elfa
reE
nvi
ron
Wel
fare
Foo
d U
tilis
atio
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ood
Acc
ess
Foo
d A
vaila
bilit
y
Internal variables
CONTROL VARIABLES
Food System STATE VARIABLES
Feedback
FeedbackINPUTS
OUTPUTS
Adapted framework
Source: adapted from Rastoin and Ghersi, 2010; Ericksen, 2008; GECAFS, 2009
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Socioeconomic feedbackse.g. livelihood, social cohesion
‘Natural’ DRIVERS
e.g. Volcanoes Solar cycles
DRIVER Interactions
Food System ACTIVITIESProducing food
Processing & Packaging foodDistributing & Retailing food
Consuming food
Food System OUTCOMESContribution to
Social Welfare
EnvironWelfareFood
UtilisationFood
Access
Food Availability
Environmental feedbackse.g. water quality, GHGs
Socioeconomic DRIVERSChanges in:
Demographics, EconomicsSocio-political context,
Cultural contextScience & Technology
GEC DRIVERSChanges in:
Land cover & soils, Atmospheric Comp., Climate variability & means,
Water availability and quality,Nutrient availability and cycling,
Biodiversity, Sea currents & salinity, Sea level
External variables
Socioeconomic DRIVERSChanges in:
Demographics, etc.
GEC DRIVERSChanges in:Land cover & soils, etc.
Fo
od
Sys
tem
OU
TC
OM
ES
Co
ntr
ibu
tion
to
So
cial
W
elfa
reE
nvi
ron
Wel
fare
Foo
d U
tilis
atio
nF
ood
Acc
ess
Foo
d A
vaila
bilit
y
Internal variables
CONTROL VARIABLES
Food System STATE VARIABLES
Feedback
FeedbackINPUTS
OUTPUTS
Source: adapted from Rastoin and Ghersi, 2010; Ericksen, 2008; GECAFS, 2009
Adapted framework
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Fo
od
Sys
tem
OU
TC
OM
ES
Co
ntr
ibu
tion
to
So
cial
W
elfa
reE
nvi
ron
Wel
fare
Fo
od
&
Nu
trit
ion
S
ec
uri
ty
Global environmental & socioeconomic
DRIVERS
Climate change, Water depletion,
Land and soil degradation,Biodiversity loss,
Air pollution, Fossil fuel shortage,
Global economic trends,Global political trends,Food price volatility,Income distribution,
Demographics and demo-spatial dynamics,
Nutritional transition, Advancement in science &
technology,etc.
CONTROL VARIABLES
Decisions regarding: - Production - Transformation - Distribution - Consumption - etc.
Food System STATE VARIABLES
Essential assets: - Natural capital - Physical capital - Social capital
INPUTS
OUTPUTS
System of interest
Feedback
Adapted framework
- Human capital - Financial capital - Institutions, etc.
Source: adapted from Rastoin and Ghersi, 2010; Ericksen, 2008; GECAFS, 2009
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What are the essential characteristics that allow the food system to sustain
these changes and achieve these outcomes?
EXTERNAL INPUTS
Global environmental & socioeconomic
DRIVERSOF CHANGE
Climate change, Water depletion,
Land and soil degradation,Biodiversity loss,
Air pollution, Fossil fuel shortage,
Global economic trends,Global political trends,Food price volatility,Income distribution,
Demographics and demo-spatial dynamics,
Nutritional transition, Advancement in science &
technology,etc.
Source: Turner et al., 2003
Adapted framework
Fo
od
Sys
tem
OU
TC
OM
ES
Co
ntr
ibu
tion
to
So
cial
W
elfa
reE
nvi
ron
Wel
fare
Fo
od
&
Nu
trit
ion
S
ec
uri
ty
OUTPUTS
Vulnerability &Resilience
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A Vulnerability/Resilience Framework
Vulnerability, as the propensity or predisposition of a system to be adversely affected by a change, is composed of:
Exposure: Presence of essential assets and services that could be adversely affected by a change
Sensitivity: Degree to which a system is potentially affected by a change
Resilience: Ability of a system to anticipate, absorb, accommodate, or recover from the effects of a potentially hazardous event in a timely and efficient manner, including through ensuring the preservation, restoration, or improvement of its essential basic structures and functions
(IPCC, 2012)
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A causal pathway
(Source: Adapted from Turner et al. 2003)
Exposure
ResiliencePotential impact
Vulnerability
Sensitivity
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Food
Sys
tem
OU
TCO
MES
Cont
ributi
on to
Soci
al
Wel
fare
Food
U
tilis
ation
Food
Ac
cess
Food
Av
aila
bilit
y
Global environmental & socioeconomic
DRIVERSOF CHANGE
Climate change, Water depletion,
Land and soil degradation,Biodiversity loss,
Air pollution, Fossil fuel shortage,
Global economic trends,Global political trends,
Food price volatility,Income distribution,
Demographics and demo-spatial dynamics,
Nutritional transition, Advancement in science &
technology,etc.
Global
Regional
System of interest
Socioeconomic feedback
Expo
sure
Vuln
erab
ility
/Res
ilien
ce
Environmental feedback
Sens
itivi
ty
Pote
ntial
im
pact
sCop.Cap.
Adap
tive
capa
city
Envi
ron
Wel
fare
Source: adapted from Turner et al., 2003; Ericksen, 2008; GECAFS, 2009
Adapted framework
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What is vulnerable to what ?
What are these driving forces ?
Global environmental and socioeconomic changes are occurring concurrently
What outcome do they influence ?
Food systems’ principal reason for being: Food and nutrition security (Haddad, 2013)
The human–environment interface is a coupled “system” in which socio-economic and biophysical driving forces interact to influence food system activities and outcomes, both of which subsequently influence the driving forces (Foran et al., 2014)
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Context–specific questions
Initial focus on France and Spain + Italy
Context-specific literature review to identify:
Common national and subnational Food & nutrition security issues
Relevant global & regional drivers of change
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Refining drivers and issues
Preliminary focus groups to: Discuss key elements of the research framework Test questionnaire and fine-tune protocol Refine list of indicators
Anticipate understanding and gauge interest from the Delphi panel
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Focus group 1: From drivers to outcomes
A major question: “Vulnerability/Resilience of what to what?”
Identification of 4 main context-specific food & nutrition security issues Identification of 4 main global and regional drivers of change
Indicators
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Focus group 2: Shortlisting indicators
Using a Delphi expert consultation protocol
Setting up a long list of indicators derived from the literature
Shortlisting 136 indicators discussed during a focus group
Gaining consensus through an exchange of opinions
Recognizing and acknowledging the contribution of each participant within an interpretative paradigm
Testing an online Delphi questionnaire
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The Delphi technique
An iterative survey of experts: A Delphi technique is a structured group interaction process
that is directed in "rounds" of opinion collection and feedback Opinion collection is achieved by conducting a series of
surveys using questionnaires The result of each survey are presented to the group –
feedback – and the questionnaire used in the next round is built upon the result of the previous round
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ROUND 1Distribute Round 1
Questions
Receive and Analyze Data
Summarize Responses in
Interim Report 1
Formulate New Questions for
Round 2
ROUND 2Distribute Round 2
Questions
Receive and Analyze Data
Summarize Responses in
Interim Report 2
Formulate New Questions for
Round 3
ROUND 3Distribute Round 3
Questions
Receive and Analyze Data
Summarize Responses in
Interim Report 3
Final Report
Feedback
Feedback
The Delphi process
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Participation
Participation: 51 part. [round 1]; 39 part. [round 2]; 36 part. [round 3]
A balanced panel: Gender Academic disciplines
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Evolution of the consensus
Rounds
Indi
cato
rs
March May July
Increase in agreement
15 indicators [out 24] with 60% or more consensus
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Indicators: Round 1
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Indicators: Round 2
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Indicators: Round 3
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Indicators: Round 3
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Indicators: Round 3
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Indicators: Round 3
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Indicators: Round 3
Views on sustainability assessment
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Appraisal of the interactions
Proposed interactions judged “important” or “very important” by more than 80% of the participants
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Inputs from participants (1)
Round 1: Participants proposed 12 extra drivers
Round 2: 3 extra drivers were ranked “important” or “very important” by 80% or more of the participants
Extra drivers: Changing agrifood patterns Policy actions Technological innovation (SCAR, 2009)
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Inputs from participants (2)
Two new proposed food & nutrition security issues
Views on sustainability
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Focusing
March
May
July
Sustainability
Sustainability assessment
Key system
elements
Specific items
Key system
outcomes
Key elements
towards keyoutcomes
From concepts to metrics Define concepts Select variables
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Systems approach
“The whole system should be investigated in order to measure/define sustainability”. “A food system is generally embedded in an environmental, social and economic context”. “Human and natural assets will vary depending on the food system model the society adopts”.
“Reductionism”
“I may not ever know the full system dynamics. Hence, I want to break it down using broad impact links, and refine within these smaller words”.
Sustainability as a system property
How do we operationalize systems thinking approach?
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Trade-offs analysis
Sustainability is about “determining whether/where compromises need to be made to current levels of consumption”. A main aim of the metrics is about “identifying contradictions between the various dimensions of sustainability” and carrying out “trade-offs analysis”.
Sustainability as multi-dimensional
Understanding what moves the ‘circles’ closer
Multi-goal request
“Sustainability is multidimensional”. “Equal weightings are needed for environmental issues, health and social/economic issues”.
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Context-specific
“A key characteristic of sustainability is that it is time and location specific”. “What works in some contexts can be completely inappropriate in another context”. “There are many possible metrics and the ‘final’ choice will depend on the nature of the Q/stakeholder interest”.
Generic
“Having a set of indicators for comparing sustainability between countries and through time [would be] very useful”. “There should be some comparison of the indicator[s] for the nation or subnation compared to the world average”.
Generic vs context-specific
Does it depend on who the users are?
Conclusion
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Consensus is reached for 15 of the 24 desired indicators High threshold consensus criteria [80%]: 8 indicators Medium threshold consensus criteria [70%]: 3 indicators Low threshold consensus criteria [60%]: 4 indicators
Majority [50%]: 3 indicators*
Bipolarity [2 x 35%]: 5 indicators*
Low degree of agreement [+ High “Don’t know” rate] : 3 indicators*
Stability of the consensus: Favorite indicators in the second round confirmed by 93% of the experts in the third round
Summary results
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Important
Increasing societal demand for sustainable food systems
Substantial need for improved decision-making support
Metrics define what is important It is the responsibility of the scientific community to
provide such support… …an important responsibility
Joint effort is key
Thank you
For more info:www.bioversityinternational.orgwww.iamm.fr
Supported by:
Thank you
Supported by the Daniel and Nina Carasso Foundation, CRP A4NH and CIHEAM-IAMM
For more info:www.bioversityinternational.org
www.iamm.fr
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Fanzo, J., Cogill, B., & F. Mattei (2012). Metrics of Sustainable Diets and Food Systems. Bioversity International, Rome, Italy.
FAO/Bioversity International (2012). Sustainable Diets and Biodiversity. Directions and solutions for policy, research and actions. FAO, Rome, Italy.
GECAFS (2009). A Food Systems Approach to Food Security and Global Environmental Change Research. Global Environmental Change and Food Systems, Oxford, UK.
Hansen, J. W. (1996). Is agricultural sustainability a useful concept?. Agricultural systems, 50(2), 117-143.
Prosperi, P., Allen, T., Padilla, M., Peri, I. & B. Cogill (2014). Sustainability and Food & Nutrition Security: A Vulnerability Assessment Framework for the Mediterranean Region. Sage Open, 4(2), 1-15.
Rastoin, J-L. and Ghersi, G. (2010). Le système alimentaire mondial. Concepts et méthodes, analyses et dynamiques. Versailles, Éditions Quæ, p. 565.
Turner, B. L., Kasperson, R. E., Matson, P. A., McCarthy, J. J., Corell, R. W., Christensen, L., ... & Schiller, A. (2003). A framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability science. Proceedings of the national academy of sciences, 100(14), 8074-8079.
IPCC (2012). Summary for Policymakers. In: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, 1-19.