brief evaluation of remad and cmaq for east texas tracers mark green, dri model results from...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Brief evaluation of REMAD and CMAQ for east Texas tracers Mark Green, DRI Model results from Christian Seigneur and Betty Pun- AER (CMAQ and REMSAD), and](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b1e7f8b9ab0599945a1/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Brief evaluation of REMAD and CMAQ for east Texas tracers
Mark Green, DRIModel results from Christian Seigneur and Betty Pun- AER (CMAQ and REMSAD),
and Mike Barna- CIRA (REMSAD)
![Page 2: Brief evaluation of REMAD and CMAQ for east Texas tracers Mark Green, DRI Model results from Christian Seigneur and Betty Pun- AER (CMAQ and REMSAD), and](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b1e7f8b9ab0599945a1/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Methodology
• Evaluation used 6-hour tracer data and model predictions for two 10-day periods where tracer data was sequestered: August 15-25, 1999; October 5-15, 1999
1) Average observation (paired data only) = OONi
N
i
1
1
2) Average prediction (paired data only) = PPNi
N
i
1
1
3) Bias of mean OP
![Page 3: Brief evaluation of REMAD and CMAQ for east Texas tracers Mark Green, DRI Model results from Christian Seigneur and Betty Pun- AER (CMAQ and REMSAD), and](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b1e7f8b9ab0599945a1/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
4) Standard deviation of predictions and observations= p , o 5) Coefficient of variation predictions and observations=
P
p , O
o
6) RMS Error = 2
1
)(1ii
N
i
OPN
7) RMS error normalized by mean observation = O
OPN
ii
N
i
2
1
)(1
8) Correlation coefficient between predicted and observed values 9) Regression equation between predicted and observed
10) Frequency distribution of observations and predictions plot 11) Scatterplots 12) Time series 13) Spatial pattern comparison
![Page 4: Brief evaluation of REMAD and CMAQ for east Texas tracers Mark Green, DRI Model results from Christian Seigneur and Betty Pun- AER (CMAQ and REMSAD), and](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b1e7f8b9ab0599945a1/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
BRAVO Study Tracer Release & Monitoring Locations
![Page 5: Brief evaluation of REMAD and CMAQ for east Texas tracers Mark Green, DRI Model results from Christian Seigneur and Betty Pun- AER (CMAQ and REMSAD), and](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b1e7f8b9ab0599945a1/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
bsp and estimated SO4 scattering
0102030405060708090
7/9 7/19 7/29 8/8 8/18 8/28 9/7 9/17 9/27 10/7 10/17 10/27
b sp o
r sul
fate
sca
tterin
g (M
m-1
)
24 hr SO4 scat 24 hr bsp
CMAQ CMAQ
![Page 6: Brief evaluation of REMAD and CMAQ for east Texas tracers Mark Green, DRI Model results from Christian Seigneur and Betty Pun- AER (CMAQ and REMSAD), and](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b1e7f8b9ab0599945a1/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
-0.05
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
8/14 8/15 8/16 8/17 8/18 8/19 8/20 8/21 8/22 8/23 8/24 8/25 8/26
BNL
i-PPC
H (fL
/L)
BIBE
FTST
MARA
MONA
PRSG
SNVI
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
8/14 8/15 8/16 8/17 8/18 8/19 8/20 8/21 8/22 8/23 8/24 8/25 8/26
part
icul
ate
S (n
g/m
3)
BIBE
FTST
MARA
MONA
PRSG
SNVI
August- Particulate S and observed iPPCH
Northeast Texas tracer and Observed S
Northeast Texas tracer
Observed S
![Page 7: Brief evaluation of REMAD and CMAQ for east Texas tracers Mark Green, DRI Model results from Christian Seigneur and Betty Pun- AER (CMAQ and REMSAD), and](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b1e7f8b9ab0599945a1/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
12km CMAQ and 36km REMSAD NE Texas tracer obs/preds time series for sequestered period
-0.05
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
8/14 8/15 8/16 8/17 8/18 8/19 8/20 8/21 8/22 8/23 8/24 8/25 8/26
BNL
i-PPC
H (fL
/L)
BIBE
FTST
MARA
MONA
PRSG
SNVI
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
8/14 8/15 8/16 8/17 8/18 8/19 8/20 8/21 8/22 8/23 8/24 8/25 8/26
CMAQ
i-PP
CH (f
L/L)
BIBE
FTST
MARA
MONA
PRSG
SNVI
August- CMAQ and observed iPPCH
Look at CMAQ first… Obs
Preds
![Page 8: Brief evaluation of REMAD and CMAQ for east Texas tracers Mark Green, DRI Model results from Christian Seigneur and Betty Pun- AER (CMAQ and REMSAD), and](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b1e7f8b9ab0599945a1/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
12km CMAQ and 36km REMSAD NE Texas tracer obs/preds time series for sequestered period
-0.05
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
8/14 8/15 8/16 8/17 8/18 8/19 8/20 8/21 8/22 8/23 8/24 8/25 8/26
BN
L iP
PCH
(fL/
L)
BIBE
FTST
MARA
MONA
PRSG
SNVI
0.000.02
0.040.060.080.10
0.120.140.16
0.180.20
8/14 8/15 8/16 8/17 8/18 8/19 8/20 8/21 8/22 8/23 8/24 8/25 8/26
REM
SAD
iPPC
H (f
L/L)
BIBE
FTST
MARA
MONA
PRSG
SNVI
August- REMSAD and observed iPPCH
Now REMSAD… Obs
Preds
![Page 9: Brief evaluation of REMAD and CMAQ for east Texas tracers Mark Green, DRI Model results from Christian Seigneur and Betty Pun- AER (CMAQ and REMSAD), and](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b1e7f8b9ab0599945a1/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Tracer Release from Big Brown, 22-Aug-1999 00:00 GMT
CMAQ-12km REMSAD-36km
![Page 10: Brief evaluation of REMAD and CMAQ for east Texas tracers Mark Green, DRI Model results from Christian Seigneur and Betty Pun- AER (CMAQ and REMSAD), and](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b1e7f8b9ab0599945a1/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
A u g u s t P P C H ( B i g B r o w n t r a c e r )o b s e r v e d a n d C M A Q 3 6 k m
- 0 . 0 5
0 . 0 0
0 . 0 5
0 . 1 0
0 . 1 5
0 . 2 0
8 / 1 4 8 / 1 5 8 / 1 6 8 / 1 7 8 / 1 8 8 / 1 9 8 / 2 0 8 / 2 1 8 / 2 2 8 / 2 3 8 / 2 4 8 / 2 5 8 / 2 6
BNL i-P
PCH (fL
/L)
B I B E
F T S T
M A R A
M O N A
P R S G
S N V I
- 0 . 1
0
0 . 1
0 . 2
0 . 3
0 . 4
0 . 5
0 . 6
8 / 1 4 8 / 1 6 8 / 1 8 8 / 2 0 8 / 2 2 8 / 2 4 8 / 2 6
PP
CH
(fL
/L)
B I B EF T S TM A R AM O N AP R S GS N V I
CMAQ 36 km
Obs
![Page 11: Brief evaluation of REMAD and CMAQ for east Texas tracers Mark Green, DRI Model results from Christian Seigneur and Betty Pun- AER (CMAQ and REMSAD), and](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b1e7f8b9ab0599945a1/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
PPCH Plume Movement (36 km and 4 km)22 August 7, 13, 19 GMT
From AER
![Page 12: Brief evaluation of REMAD and CMAQ for east Texas tracers Mark Green, DRI Model results from Christian Seigneur and Betty Pun- AER (CMAQ and REMSAD), and](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b1e7f8b9ab0599945a1/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
August iPPCHBNL CMAQ REMSAD Bret w=div
mean 0.029 0.017 0.036 0.019std 0.044 0.051 0.052 0.046COV 1.51 3.10 1.47 2.46bias of mean 0.56 1.22 0.63r 0.08 0.67 0.46r squared 0.01 0.45 0.21RMSE 0.066 0.040 0.048Norm RMSE 2.26 1.38 1.63
Model performance summary statistics –Northeast Texas tracer, August episode
![Page 13: Brief evaluation of REMAD and CMAQ for east Texas tracers Mark Green, DRI Model results from Christian Seigneur and Betty Pun- AER (CMAQ and REMSAD), and](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b1e7f8b9ab0599945a1/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
August ocPDCHBNL CMAQ REMSAD Bret w=div
mean 0.52 0.62 0.57 0.66std 0.71 0.76 0.54 0.99COV 1.37 1.22 0.94 1.50bias of mean 1.19 1.10 1.27r 0.25 0.39 0.35r squared 0.06 0.15 0.12RMSE 0.91 0.70 1.01Norm RMSE 1.74 1.35 1.94
Model performance summary statistics – Eagle Pass tracer, August episode
![Page 14: Brief evaluation of REMAD and CMAQ for east Texas tracers Mark Green, DRI Model results from Christian Seigneur and Betty Pun- AER (CMAQ and REMSAD), and](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b1e7f8b9ab0599945a1/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
-0.20
-0.10
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
10/4 10/5 10/6 10/7 10/8 10/9 10/10 10/11 10/12 10/13 10/14 10/15 10/16
BNL
PTCH
(fL/
L) BIBE
FTST
MARA
MONA
PRSG
SNVI
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
10/4 10/5 10/6 10/7 10/8 10/9 10/10 10/11 10/12 10/13 10/14 10/15 10/16
Parti
cula
teS
(ng/
m3)
BIBE
FTST
MARA
MONA
PRSG
SNVI
October- Particulate S and observed PTCH
Houston tracer and observed S
Houston tracer
Observed S
![Page 15: Brief evaluation of REMAD and CMAQ for east Texas tracers Mark Green, DRI Model results from Christian Seigneur and Betty Pun- AER (CMAQ and REMSAD), and](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b1e7f8b9ab0599945a1/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
12km CMAQ and 36km REMSAD Houston tracer obs/preds time series for sequestered period
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
10/4 10/5 10/6 10/7 10/8 10/9 10/10 10/11 10/12 10/13 10/14 10/15 10/16
AER
PTCH
(fL/
L) BIBE
FTST
MARA
MONA
PRSG
SNVI
-0.20
-0.10
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
10/4 10/5 10/6 10/7 10/8 10/9 10/10 10/11 10/12 10/13 10/14 10/15 10/16
BNL
PTCH
(fL/
L)
BIBEFTST
MARAMONA
PRSGSNVI
October- CMAQ and observed PTCH
Look at CMAQ first…
Obs
Preds
![Page 16: Brief evaluation of REMAD and CMAQ for east Texas tracers Mark Green, DRI Model results from Christian Seigneur and Betty Pun- AER (CMAQ and REMSAD), and](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b1e7f8b9ab0599945a1/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
10/4 10/5 10/6 10/7 10/8 10/9 10/10 10/11 10/12 10/13 10/14 10/15 10/16
REM
SAD
PTC
H
BIBE
FTST
MARA
MONA
PRSG
SNVI
-0.20
-0.10
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
10/4 10/5 10/6 10/7 10/8 10/9 10/10 10/11 10/12 10/13 10/14 10/15 10/16
BNL
PTCH
(fL/
L) BIBE
FTST
MARA
MONA
PRSG
SNVI
October- REMSAD and observed PTCH
12km CMAQ and 36km REMSAD Houston tracer obs/preds time series for sequestered period
Now REMSAD…
Obs
Preds
![Page 17: Brief evaluation of REMAD and CMAQ for east Texas tracers Mark Green, DRI Model results from Christian Seigneur and Betty Pun- AER (CMAQ and REMSAD), and](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b1e7f8b9ab0599945a1/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
CMAQ 12 and 4 km simulation PTCH (Houston Tracer) October 12
6-hour average starting 19 GMT22 GMT
![Page 18: Brief evaluation of REMAD and CMAQ for east Texas tracers Mark Green, DRI Model results from Christian Seigneur and Betty Pun- AER (CMAQ and REMSAD), and](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b1e7f8b9ab0599945a1/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
REMSAD PTCH
36 km
12 km
REMSAD vs. CMAQ36 km vs. 12 km
PTCH (Houston Tracer) October 12
![Page 19: Brief evaluation of REMAD and CMAQ for east Texas tracers Mark Green, DRI Model results from Christian Seigneur and Betty Pun- AER (CMAQ and REMSAD), and](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b1e7f8b9ab0599945a1/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
- 0 . 2 0
- 0 . 1 0
0 . 0 0
0 . 1 0
0 . 2 0
0 . 3 0
0 . 4 0
0 . 5 0
1 0 / 4 1 0 / 5 1 0 / 6 1 0 / 7 1 0 / 8 1 0 / 9 1 0 / 1 0 1 0 / 1 1 1 0 / 1 2 1 0 / 1 3 1 0 / 1 4 1 0 / 1 5 1 0 / 1 6
BNL PTCH (fL/L)
B I B E
F T S T
M A R A
M O N A
P R S G
S N V I
O c t o b e r P T C H ( H o u s t o n t r a c e r ) o b s e r v e d a n d C M A Q 3 6 k m
- 0 . 1
0
0 . 1
0 . 2
0 . 3
0 . 4
0 . 5
1 0 / 4 1 0 / 6 1 0 / 8 1 0 / 1 0 1 0 / 1 2 1 0 / 1 4 1 0 / 1 6
PT
CH
(fL
/L)
B I B EF T S TM A R AM O N AP R S GS N V I
CMAQ 36 km
Obs
![Page 20: Brief evaluation of REMAD and CMAQ for east Texas tracers Mark Green, DRI Model results from Christian Seigneur and Betty Pun- AER (CMAQ and REMSAD), and](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b1e7f8b9ab0599945a1/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
PTCH Plume Movement (36 km and 4 km)12 October 19 GMT; 13 October 1, 7 GMT
0.15
0.15
0.05
0.05
0.15
0.15
0.05
0.05
From AER
![Page 21: Brief evaluation of REMAD and CMAQ for east Texas tracers Mark Green, DRI Model results from Christian Seigneur and Betty Pun- AER (CMAQ and REMSAD), and](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b1e7f8b9ab0599945a1/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
AER summary of CMAQ tracer transport
• In the 36 km simulations, tracer plumes still miss monitoring sites at and near Big Bend on some days
• In both the 36 and 4 km simulations for August, the PPCH plumes are too far East
• In both the 36 and 4 km simulations for October, the PTCH plumes are too far South
• 36 km simulations bring plume a lot closer to Big Bend than 4 km simulations
![Page 22: Brief evaluation of REMAD and CMAQ for east Texas tracers Mark Green, DRI Model results from Christian Seigneur and Betty Pun- AER (CMAQ and REMSAD), and](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b1e7f8b9ab0599945a1/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
October PTCHBNL CMAQ REMSAD Bret w=div
mean 0.14 0.03 0.05 0.08std 0.10 0.07 0.04 0.14COV 0.71 2.49 0.77 1.73bias of mean 0.19 0.38 0.57r 0.00 0.18 0.10r squared 0.00 0.03 0.01RMSE 0.17 0.13 0.17Norm RMSE 1.17 0.94 1.22
Model performance summary statistics –northeast Texas tracer, August episode
![Page 23: Brief evaluation of REMAD and CMAQ for east Texas tracers Mark Green, DRI Model results from Christian Seigneur and Betty Pun- AER (CMAQ and REMSAD), and](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b1e7f8b9ab0599945a1/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Model performance summary statistics – Eagle Pass tracer, October episode
October ocPDCHBNL CMAQ REMSAD Bret w=div
mean 0.36 0.29 0.29 0.53std 0.71 0.69 0.40 1.79norm std 1.97 2.36 1.39 3.39bias of mean 0.81 0.80 1.46r 0.43 0.25 0.05r squared 0.19 0.06 0.00RMSE 0.75 0.73 1.89Norm RMSE 2.07 2.01 5.24
![Page 24: Brief evaluation of REMAD and CMAQ for east Texas tracers Mark Green, DRI Model results from Christian Seigneur and Betty Pun- AER (CMAQ and REMSAD), and](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b1e7f8b9ab0599945a1/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
SO4 at K-BAR, July-October 1999
![Page 25: Brief evaluation of REMAD and CMAQ for east Texas tracers Mark Green, DRI Model results from Christian Seigneur and Betty Pun- AER (CMAQ and REMSAD), and](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b1e7f8b9ab0599945a1/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Total Sulfur at K-BAR, July-October 1999
![Page 26: Brief evaluation of REMAD and CMAQ for east Texas tracers Mark Green, DRI Model results from Christian Seigneur and Betty Pun- AER (CMAQ and REMSAD), and](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b1e7f8b9ab0599945a1/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
October Episode, 4-km SimulationRegression Analysis
y = 0.3872x + 2.1778R2 = 0.6851
0
2
4
6
8
0 2 4 6 8Obs ervat ions
Sim
ulat
ed V
alue
s
Sulfate (g/m3) at Big Bend From AER