brief history 1972 initiative of u.s. and soviet union
DESCRIPTION
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). BRIEF HISTORY 1972 initiative of U.S. and Soviet Union Created research center as a “neutral bridge between east and west” Original Charter of 1972: 12 countries - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
BRIEF HISTORY
• 1972 initiative of U.S. and Soviet Union
• Created research center as a“neutral bridge between east and west”
• Original Charter of 1972: 12 countries
• 1994 Ministerial Conference: renewed mandate as independent, scientific institution
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
The End of World Population Growth in the 21st Century: New Challenges for Human Capital Formation and Sustainable Development
A forthcoming IIASA Book W. Lutz, W. C. Sanderson and S. Scherbov (Eds.)
Main Points
• The new demography of the 21st century requires a new population paradigm: Population Balance
• This paradigm has two main features:
1. Focus on age structure and not just population size and growth.
2. Adding education as an essential dimesion.
Policy Relevance
The new paradigm of Population Balance gives a unified framework for defining policies in the context of both rapid population growth and rapid ageing.
Recommendation
The current one-dimesnional goal of population stabilisation is no longer appropriate in the demographically diverse world of the 21st century.
It should be replaced by population balance which also takes age-structure and education into account.
New global challenges for health, quality of life and sustainable development in the context of
the end of world population growth
• The end of world population growth • Low fertility and negative demographic momentum in
Europe• The demography of human capital formation• Literate Life Expectancy: a new quality of life and social
development indicator• Does population aging necessarily result in more people
with disabilties? • New global challenges
World Population from the year 1000 to 2100(historical data from 1000 to 2000; deciles of IIASA’s probabilistic forecasts to 2100)
7
Source of historical data: UN 2001
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
YEAR
WO
RL
D P
OP
UL
AT
ION
(IN
MIL
LIO
NS
)
Nine sample paths (out of 2,000 simulated paths) of world population size from 2000 to 2100
8
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
20
00
20
10
20
20
20
30
20
40
20
50
20
60
20
70
20
80
20
90
21
00
YEAR
WO
RL
D P
OP
UL
AT
ION
(IN
MIL
LIO
NS
) PATH 1
PATH 2
PATH 3
PATH 4
PATH 5
PATH 6
PATH 7
PATH 8
PATH 9
Declines of the resulting uncertainty distribution of world population size to 21000.
9
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
YEAR
WO
RL
D P
OP
UL
AT
ION
(IN
MIL
LIO
NS
)Decile 1
Decile 2
Decile 3
Decile 4
Decile 5
Decile 6
Decile 7
Decile 8
Decile 9
World Population from the year 1000 to 2100(historical data from 1000 to 2000; deciles of IIASA’s probabilistic forecasts to 2100)
10
Source of historical data: UN 2001
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
YEAR
WO
RL
D P
OP
UL
AT
ION
(IN
MIL
LIO
NS
)
Probability of End of Population Growth:Proportion peaking prior to the indicated year (out of 2,000 simulated population paths)
11
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.020
00
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
2080
2085
2090
2095
2100
Year
Pro
babi
lity
WorldChina Region
Sub Saharan Africa
Europ. Former USSR
1st, 3rd, 5th (median), 7th, and 9th deciles of the forecasted distributions of world population size at
10-year intervals from 2000 to 2100. Note: Uncertainty measure is (9th decile-1st decile)/median.
12
1st Decile (10% of
cases below this number)
3rd Decile (30% of
cases below this number)
Median (50% of
cases below this number)
7th Decile (70% of
cases below this number)
9th Decile (90% of
cases below this number)
Uncertainty Measure (9th
Decile-1st Decile)/Median
2000 6.055 6.055 6.055 6.055 6.055 0.000 2010 6.612 6.743 6.828 6.915 7.038 0.062 2020 7.034 7.337 7.539 7.731 8.006 0.129 2030 7.317 7.765 8.086 8.425 8.898 0.196 2040 7.442 8.037 8.525 9.034 9.740 0.270 2050 7.347 8.157 8.797 9.492 10.447 0.352 2060 7.14 8.162 8.936 9.794 10.958 0.427 2070 6.834 8.038 8.975 9.981 11.496 0.519 2080 6.446 7.782 8.890 10.020 11.835 0.606 2090 5.998 7.478 8.682 9.964 12.105 0.703 2100 5.573 7.124 8.414 9.845 12.123 0.778
Western Europe, uncertainty distribution of the proportion above age 80.
13
UN “high”
Western Europe, Proportion above age 80
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
0.52
00
0
20
05
20
10
20
15
20
20
20
25
20
30
20
35
20
40
20
45
20
50
20
55
20
60
20
65
20
70
20
75
20
80
20
85
20
90
20
95
21
00
Year
Pro
po
rtio
n a
bo
ve
ag
e 8
0
0.8
0.4
0.2
0.025
0.975
Median
0.6
Fractiles
Sergei's DELL PIII, file: E:\Current\Run\2000\NewTechique\Simul\[pop_new21_4_del1_sing5_c1.xls],06-Jun-01 07:36
UN “low”
UN “high”
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0
2050204520402035203020252020201520102005200019951990198519801975197019651960195519501945
females
0.01.02.03.04.0
05
101520253035404550556065707580859095
100105
European Union, 2050
Population (millions)
males
Age Period of Birth
Sergei's DELL PIII, file: C:\Sergei\Current\Run\2002\EU\[make_pyramid_to_file2_EU2.xls],21-May-02 14:36
Percentage of population aged 65 and older in Europe by regional units (NUTS 3).
Berlin: August 15, 200315
New global challenges for health, quality of life and sustainable development in the context of
the end of world population growth
• The end of world population growth
• Low fertility and negative demographic momentum in Europe
• The demography of human capital formation• Literate Life Expectancy: a new quality of life and social
development indicator• Does population aging necessarily result in more people
with disabilties? • New global challenges
Birth deficit due to the tempo effect
An increase in the mean age of childbearing results in a lasting loss of births, unless the childbearing age
decreases again
EU-15 Population Scenarios
Source: Lutz, O’Neill, & Scherbov, Science, 2003.
Instant ReplacementLevel Fertility
All scenarios assume constant mortality and no net migration.
Ultimate population declineindicates current agestructure has negativemomentum
Year
EU-15 Population Scenarios
Source: Lutz, O’Neill, & Scherbov, Science, 2003.
Instant ReplacementLevel Fertility
20 Years of Fertilityat 1.5, then Replacement
All scenarios assume constant mortality and no net migration.
Continued low fertilityleads to growingnegative momentum
Year
EU-15 Population Scenarios
Source: Lutz, O’Neill, & Scherbov, Science, 2003.
Instant ReplacementLevel Fertility
20 Years of Fertilityat 1.8, then Replacement
20 Years of Fertilityat 1.5, then Replacement
All scenarios assume constant mortality and no net migration.
The tempo effect accountsfor about 45% of thepopulation decline due tocontinued low fertility.
Year
Year
Effects of Low Fertility on Aging in Europe
Source: Lutz, O’Neill, & Scherbov, Science, 2003.
New global challenges for health, quality of life and sustainable development in the context of
the end of world population growth
• The end of world population growth • Low fertility and negative demographic momentum in
Europe
• The demography of human capital formation• Literate Life Expectancy: a new quality of life and social
development indicator• Does population aging necessarily result in more people
with disabilties? • New global challenges
Forecasting Human Capital: Adding Education to Age and Sex
• Formal education is typically acquired at young ages and then does not change over the life course (goes along cohort lines, multi-state population models).
• This is why the educational composition of the total population changes only very slowly.
• Educational efforts made today will only improve the average education of the work force many years later.
0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
1905
1900
No education Primary Secondary Higher
females
0.050.0100.0150.0200.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
males
Singapore 2000
Population (thousands)
Age Period of Birth
filename:D:\IIASA2002\Sergei\Current\Run\ 2002\Educ\Final_ 031002\WithPyr\closed\ [makePyr .xls]data
Projecting the population by level of education
• We need to know the current composition of the population by age, sex and education categories.
• We need to know how the birth rates differ for women with different levels of education.
• We need to know school enrollment at different levels and make alternative assumptions for the future.
• We need to make assumptions about future trends in fertility, mortality and migration by level of education.
0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
No education Primary Secondary Higher
females
0.050.0100.0150.0200.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
males
Singapore: 2030
Population (thousands)
Age Period of Birth
filename:D:\IIASA2002\Sergei\Current\Run\ 2002\Educ\Final_ 031002\WithPyr\closed\ [makePyr .xls]data
Country Specific Scenario: TFR 1.5 in 2030, Education Constant
India 2000 China 2000 No education 3.78 2.43 Some primary education 2.89 2.14 Some secondary education 2.36 1.63 Some tertiary education 1.96 1.08
Education-specific TFR :India and China.
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2000 2015 2030
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2000 2015 2030
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2000 2015 2030
1,200
800
400
0
2000 2015 2030 2000 2015 2030 2000 2015 2030
Estimated population aged 20-64 years (in millions) by levels of education, according to the “ICPD” scenario,
2000-30, in three economic mega-regions
Western and Eastern Europe and North
America
China and Centrally Planned Asia South Asia
No education Primary Secondary Tertiary
New global challenges for health, quality of life and sustainable development in the context of
the end of world population growth
• The end of world population growth • Low fertility and negative demographic momentum in
Europe• The demography of human capital formation
• Literate Life Expectancy: a new quality of life and social development indicator
• Does population aging necessarily result in more peple with disabilties?
• New global challenges
Table 1. Example of the calculation of the LLE of rural men in Egypt, 1986.
Regular life table Literate life table Age (years) mx lx Lx ex PLx LLx LTx Lex \<1 1.041 100.000 93,340 58.60 0.00 0 2,382,889 23.8 4 0.081 90.105 353,413 64.00 0.00 0 2,382,889 26.4 5--9 0.017 87.232 434,130 62.06 0.42 183,203 2,382,889 27.3 10--14 0.010 86.494 431,434 57.57 0.84 364,130 2,199,686 25.4 15--19 0.012 86.062 429,077 52.84 0.68 290,485 1,835,556 21.3 20--24 0.017 85.548 426,000 48.15 0.78 333,558 1,545,071 18.1 25--29 0.021 84.824 421,991 43.54 0.48 202,978 1,211,513 14.3 30--34 0.027 83.938 416,986 38.97 0.48 200,570 1,008,535 12.0 35--39 0.032 82.812 410,905 34.46 0.38 156,966 807,964 9.8 40--44 0.035 81.498 404,094 29.98 0.38 154,364 650,999 8.0 45--49 0.069 80.084 393,900 25.46 0.30 118,170 496,635 6.2 50--54 0.121 77.368 375,934 21.26 0.30 112,780 378,465 4.9 55--59 0.240 72.824 344,335 17.43 0.25 85,051 265,684 3.6 60--64 0.252 64.580 304,529 14.32 0.25 75,219 180,633 2.8 65--69 0.572 56.925 250,441 10.89 0.20 50,088 105,415 1.9 70--74 0.682 42.681 183,565 8.66 0.20 36,713 55,327 1.3 75+ 1.625 30.247 186,136 6.15 0.10 18,614 18,614 0.6
LLE at birth for selected countries in North Africa, 1970–2005, for males (M) and females
(F)
0
10
20
30
40
50
1970-1975 1975-1980 1980-1985 1985-1990 1990-1995 1995-2000 2000-2005
Lite
rate
life
exp
ecta
ncy
(ye
ars)
Algeria M Egypt M Morocco M Tunisia M
Algeria F Egypt F Morocco F Tunisia F
LLE at birth for selected countries in sub-Saharan Africa, 1970–2005, for males (M) and
females (F)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1970-1975
1975-1980
1980-1985
1985-1990
1990-1995
1995-2000
2000-2005
Lite
rate
life
exp
ecta
ncy
( ye
ars)
Mauritius M Senegal M South Africa M Tanzania M
Mauritius F Senegal F South Africa F Tanzania F
Literate life expectancy for selected countries by sex and urban and rural place of residence
Male Female
Urban Rural Urban Rural
Bangladesh 1986 27.0 15.7 14.4 6.4
Belarus 1993 60.2 56.6 68.4 65.2
Colombia 1985 53.0 53.6 57.6 53.6
Egypt 1986 35.2 23.8 25.4 9.7
Greece 1991 68.9 68.4 70.8 66.5
Mexico 1990 56.7 44.9 57.2 39.6
Romania 1994 61.8 59.1 67.7 62.2
Tajikistan 1991 56.7 60.2 62.1 60.9
Literate life expectancy at birth for 13 world regions, 2000-2030, according to the “constant” and “ICPD”
scenarios
Region Male Female Male Female Male FemaleCentral Asia 58.7 64.1 64.6 71.8 64.6 71.8China region 56.1 48.1 65.8 67.2 65.8 67.2Eastern Europe 63.1 69.8 68.8 76.4 68.8 76.4FSU Europe 57.8 69.0 63.0 74.2 63.0 74.2Latin America 54.3 57.0 64.5 69.8 64.5 69.8Middle East 48.7 38.2 61.0 51.4 62.4 56.3North Africa 38.7 27.7 54.0 42.4 55.4 47.3North America 69.3 75.8 74.0 80.5 74.0 80.5Pacific Asia 46.6 43.4 58.7 58.4 59.2 59.6Pacific OECD 72.4 78.4 77.3 83.4 77.3 83.4South Asia 36.5 22.0 51.6 37.2 52.2 42.7Sub-Saharan Africa 27.4 20.4 35.8 29.9 38.4 35.2Western Europe 66.3 70.4 73.2 78.3 73.2 78.3
2025-2030Constant ICPD2000-2005
Projections of female literate life expectancy at birth for six regions 2000-2030, according to the “ICPD”
scenario
0
20
40
60
80
2000-05 2005-10 2010-15 2015-20 2020-25 2025-30
Lite
rate
life
exp
ecta
ncy
(yea
rs)
Sub Saharan Africa South Asia North Africa
Middle East Latin America China & CPA
New global challenges for health, quality of life and sustainable development in the context of
the end of world population growth
• The end of world population growth • Low fertility and negative demographic momentum in
Europe• The demography of human capital formation• Literate Life Expectancy: a new quality of life and social
development indicator
• Does population aging necessarily result in more people with disabilties?
• New global challenges
European Union 2000, Proportion with some disabilities by age
Proportion disabled, graduated
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100
Age
Pro
po
rtio
n
females
males
Age Pyramid of the EU-15 in 2000 by Disability Status
(red shading indicates persons with some disabilities)
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0
200019951990198519801975197019651960195519501945194019351930192519201915191019051900
Females
0.01.02.03.04.0
05
101520253035404550556065707580859095
100
European Union, 2000, Total and Disabled Population
Population (millions)
Males
Age Year of Birth
Projected age pyramid of the disabled population under the scenario with zero shift, i.e., constant age-specific profile
(red shading indicates persons with disabilities).
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0
203020252020201520102005200019951990198519801975197019651960195519501945194019351930
Females
0.01.02.03.04.0
05
101520253035404550556065707580859095
100
European Union, 2030, Total and Disabled Population
Population (millions)
Males
Age Year of BirthProportion disabled, scenario constant
Projected age pyramid of the disabled population under the scenario with a two-year shift per decade
(red shading indicates persons with disabilities).
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0
203020252020201520102005200019951990198519801975197019651960195519501945194019351930
Females
0.01.02.03.04.0
05
101520253035404550556065707580859095
100
European Union, 2030, Total and Disabled Population
Population (millions)
Males
Age Year of BirthProportion disabled, scenario shifted 2 years per decade
Results of the four alternative scenarios shifting the age profile of disability by 0, 1, 2 and 3 years per decades
(in millions of disabled). Proportion disabled, scenario shifted
40
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60
70
80
90
20
00
20
02
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48
20
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Year
Dis
able
d P
op
ula
tio
n (
mil
lio
ns)
0 years
1 year
2 years
3 years
New global challenges for health, quality of life and sustainable development in the context of
the end of world population growth
• The end of world population growth • Low fertility and negative demographic momentum in
Europe• The demography of human capital formation• Literate Life Expectancy: a new quality of life and social
development indicator• Does population aging necessarily result in more peple
with disabilties?
• New global challenges
Aim: To prepare a comprehensive scientific assessment about the role of population in sustainable development strategies, with the aim of producing substantive input to the Johannesburg 2002 summit.
Organization and Sponsorship: Organized by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population (IUSSP), and the United Nations University (UNU).
Sponsored by the UNFPA, the Government of Austria, and the MacArthur Foundation.
Patronage and Constitution: Maurice Strong and Nafis Sadik are the Panel’s joint patrons. It consists of 30 distinguished scientists from different relevant disciplines.
Coordinators: Wolfgang Lutz and Mahendra Shah
Global Science Panel Population in Sustainable Development
IIASA 2002 / 46
1) Demographically Diverse World
2) Population Matters to Development and Environment
3) Policy Must Account for Differential Vulnerability Within
Populations
4) Empowerment Through Education and Reproductive Health
Has Multiple Benefits for People and Environment
5) Strengthening Interdisciplinary Training
Global Science Panel Population in Sustainable Development
IIASA 2002 / 47
Global Science Panel Population in Sustainable Development
IIASA 2002 / 48
3) Policy Must Account For Differential Vulnerability Within
Populations
Deteriorating environmental conditions and extreme events do not affect all
countries, populations, or households in the same way. Even within a
household, the effects may differ by age and gender. Consideration of
vulnerability must therefore focus not only on countries but also on the most
vulnerable segments of the population within countries.
Vulnerability can be reduced by promoting empowerment, investing in
human resources, and fostering participation in public affairs and decision-
making.
Global Science Panel Population in Sustainable Development
IIASA 2002 / 49
4) Empowerment Through Education and Reproductive Health
Has Multiple Benefits for People and the Environment
Two policies have multiple benefits for individual welfare, for social and
economic development, and for the environment. One is investment in voluntary
family planning and reproductive health programs.
The other top policy priority is education. Education enhances individual choice,
fosters women's empowerment and improves gender equity. More educated
people are in better health and often contribute to greater environmental
awareness.
It may also reduce vulnerability to environmental changes by facilitating access
to information and the means to protect oneself.
Global Science Panel Population in Sustainable Development
IIASA 2002 / 50
5) Strengthening Interdisciplinary Training
To facilitate the joint consideration of population trends, health, education,
development, and environment, more interdisciplinary education at all levels is
necessary. Training for the policy community, media, and scientists is especially
important.
**********************
Final note:
A demography that goes beyond age and sex is well suited to facilitate
such interdisciplinary approaches because it can capture the dynamics of
groups of individuals with all the characteristics considered important
(health status, education, location etc.) and link it to institutions.
Projecting the population by level of education
• We need to know the current composition of the population by age, sex and education categories.
• We need to know how the birth rates differ for women with different levels of education.
• We need to know school enrollment at different levels and make alternative assumptions for the future.
• We need to make assumptions about future trends in fertility, mortality and migration by level of education.
New Concept of Population Balance
• So far the problems associated with population growth and those associated with population ageing have been studied separately.
• Here we develop a common framework considering age structure.
• We complement these purely demographic factors by also considering the cost and the productivity enhancing effects of education.
Welfare Indictor for Stable Populations By Fraction Educated and Total Fertility Rate, Baseline Parameters
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0.01 0.51 1.01 1.51 2.01 2.51 3.01 3.51 4.01 4.51 5.01 5.51
TOTAL FERTILITY RATE
WE
LFA
RE
IN
DIC
AT
OR
efract=15% efract=50% efract=85%
Conclusions
• Population Balance can be seen as the population component of sustainable development.
• It is directly relevant for the Millennium Development Goals because it relates to poverty, education, reproduction, the environment and intergenerational equity.