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Multi-Dimensional Manoeuvre in the Contemporary Operating Environment

Professor Jonathan Githens-MazerAssociate Professor in Ethno-Politics, Institute of Arab

and Islamic Studies, Exeter University

Brigadier Richard Stanford MBEChief Joint Fires and Influence, HQ ARRC

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What is HQ ARRC?

• UK’s primary LAND contribution to NATO

• Held at permanent readiness with lead elements always at 5 days NTM or less

• During 2013 HQ ARRC is NATO Response Force (NRF) Land Component at shorter NTM

• Ability to experiment and develop concepts through exercises

• Draw on operational experience from 16 nations

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Future Character of Conflict

• Contested

• Congested

• Cluttered

• Connected

• Constrained

• How to gain an advantage relative to the enemy in this environment?

• Technological advantage likely to be eroded / countered

• Rapid expansion of Information environment

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Multi-Dimensional Manoeuvre

• Gain advantage over an opponent in the cyber and information dimensions as well as land, maritime and air

• Attacking the opponent’s will and cohesion.

• Multi-dimensional tempo that aims to achieve battle-winning shock and surprise.

• Information operations may be more decisive at times than ground based tactical activity

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OODA Loop

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Big Data

• Need to UNDERSTAND the context, content and background to the production of the data

• Large amounts of data, when interpreted correctly with contextual awareness and cultural understanding can produce very insightful results - quickly

• SOCMINT is one type of INT – all types are required to develop balanced UNDERSTANDING– No silver bullet but adoption o Big Data is needed

• Some commentators state a recent over reliance on SIGINT at the expense of HUMINT and comprehension of local populations. SOCMINT can complement both SIGINT and HUMINT

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Information Operations

• UNDERSTAND is only one side

• Importance of Perception – C20th wars of national survival – clear win and lose.

– C21st conflict resolution shaped by perception and public opinion

• How use new media to communicate our message?

• How generate tempo in information operations?

• Can the tenets of Mission Command be applied to Information Operations?

• What are our vulnerabilities which will be attacked?– different values on human life and proportionality?

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Information Techniques and Contingency

• How to develop rapid UNDERSTANDING of an area or region in line with readiness?– Horizon scanning

– Regional and thematic experts – upstream knowledge

• How does Big Data enable us to make up for the speed vs depth?

• How do we use Big Data to identify enemy weakness and mask our own?

• Use of Big Data to measure our own effectiveness much more quickly

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Applicatons of Expert Calibrated Big Data (I)

• Potential for profound academic (yawn!) methodological transformation at moment– New opportunities to embrace complexity within massive open-

ended dynamic systems (snapshot and observation in motion)• Public Health• Climate Change• Urban Environments

• Big Data allows for shift from deductive logic to inductive logic – constant adjustment of probabilistic expectations against a Criterion of Adequacy– Not correlations – real time adjustment to (potentially infinite) set of

probabilistically possible explanations – Moving away from thinking about cause and effect and towards flow

and interaction

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Applicatons of Expert Calibrated Big Data (I)

• Using Big Data via Bayesian influenced pattern searching and expert calibration: • Does not discount the unimaginable • Allows the data (eventually) in real time, to guide

knowing/understanding and insight/foresight (JDP 04) with respect to requisite quanta of data necessary to analyse a given Contemporary Operating Environment (COE)

• Big Data as complement to existing Intelligence to allow for better/deeper understanding (insight/foresight) for Contingency Policy/Planning and to measure effectiveness of Information Operations?

• Starting points: Janus Headed Approach - case study research and DCDC Future Character of Conflict (2010)

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Conclusion

• Information superiority = gaining advantage over an opponent in the cyber and information dimensions

• OODA loop valid but– Speed of rotation– Amount of information to understand

• Big Data on its own of no use, has to be interpreted in context of culture, language and nuance

• New tactics and techniques required to respond to the technological changes

• Using momentum of technological change and methodological innovation to contribute to contingency readiness and measure success of Influence in real time and reflective of COE

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Questions?