Bringing Back Traditional Grains to The Dinner Table

“The Making of The East Africa’s Superfoods”

Dr Julius GatuneAfrican Center for Economic Transformation (ACET)

6th Africa Day For Food and Nutrition Security28-30 October, 2015

Kampala Uganda

Food item

Calorie Contribution (Kcal/Capita/Yr) Rank

Change in rank

1961 2011 1961 2011Maize 145 344 5 1 4Plantains 259 318 3 2 1Cassava 342 267 1 3 -2Sweet Potatoes 158 162 4 4 0Beans 111 91 6 5 1Wheat 23 85 12 6 6Groundnuts 104 69 8 7 1Sesameseed 67 56 10 8 2Rice 12 54 14 9 5Pulses, Other 73 46 9 10 -1Millet 299 42 2 11 -9Sorghum 106 34 7 12 -5Potatoes 20 29 13 13 0Bananas 40 23 11 14 0Other Vegetables 12 14 15 15 0

Traditional cereals have been losing their share at the dinner table in East Africa to “New” Cereals

2

Top Calorie Suppliers, Uganda (1961, 2011)

Millets and sorghums are

adapted to region agro-ecological

conditions. Millet first domesticated in

East Africa over 4000 yrs ago

• Diet shift has made the region more vulnerable₋ Maize is a fragile crop and very sensitive to draught₋ New foods wheat and rice are largely imported thus high food bills and

vulnerable to global commodities volatile markets (2007 food crisis)Source: FAOSTAT

Yet traditional grains have potential to be the “silver bullets” for eradication food insecurity

3

Sorghum Millet

• Can survive in areas with as little as 300 mm of rainfall (vs. 500–600 mm for maize).

• Adapted to dry, infertile soils, to high temperatures, short growing seasons, and acidic soils with poor water-holding capacity.

• Grains can be stored for over 10 years without significant deterioration.

• A physiological marvel : one of ― Most photosynthetically efficient

plants; The highest dry matter accumulation rate

― Quickest maturing food plants, certain types can mature in as little as 75 days

― It is not only good for food, but also for fodder, the production of alcoholic beverages, and biofuels.

• Beyond being well-suited for Africa’s agro-ecological conditions, they are both rich in many important micronutrients and have more protein than maize.

• These crops are also vey good for fodder and can support livestock (also manure when combined with fertilizers greatly improves returns on yield)

Diet shift Traditional grains

key to adaptation to climate change

Traditional cereals have favorable nutritional profile especially when compared to new cereals foods that have been displacing them. They are our superfoods!

Plantains

Cassava

Sorg

humW

heatRice

Maize

QuinoaM

illet

122 160

339 342 360 362 374 378Energy Kcal/100g

Plantai

ns

Cassav

aRice

Maize

Millet

Sorgh

umW

heat

Quinoa

1.3 1.4

6.68.1

11.0 11.3 11.313.1

Protein (g/cup)

PlantainsM

aizeM

illet

Rice

Cassava

Sorg

humW

heat

Quinoa

3 6 8 916

28 32

60Calcium (g/cup)

Cassava Rice

Plantains

Wheat

Mille

t

Maize

Quinoa

21 35 3793 114 127

210Magnesium mg/cup

Cassava

PlantainsM

illet

Maize Rice

Sorg

humW

heat

Quinoa

0.3 0.63.0 3.5 4.4 4.4 4.6

9.3Iron mg/cup

Plantai

ns

Cassav

aRice

Maize

Whea

tMille

t

Quinoa

0.081 0.1 0.110.193

0.363

0.75 0.82

Copper

Cassav

a

Plantai

nsRice

Maize

Millet

Sorgh

umW

heat

Quinoa

27 34108

241285 287

355410

Phosphorus

RiceMille

t

Cassav

aMaiz

e

Sorgh

umW

heat

Plantai

ns

Quinoa

86195

271 287 350432 499

740Potassium

Plantai

ns

Cassav

aRice

Millet

Maize

Quinoa

Whea

t

0.14 0.34

1.161.68 1.82

3.3 3.33Zinc

Source: USDA

Be

Production structure

Marketing and distribution

Issues

Traditional grains value chain challenges are well known, but solutions are elusive.

Logistics Processing

Policy Questions

•Whom to support (smallholders)

•What to subsidize (inputs or information)

•What kind of farming ecosystem

• Formal vs. informal traders

• What type of market infrastructure (government vs. private vs. PPP)

• Artisanal vs. formal processors

• Trade policy, e.g., sorghum bread

• Industrial policy on local equipment fabrication vs. imports

• Food import bans vs. tariffs

• Mandate vs. incentive• PPPs for marketing and

distribution

•Low yields–Saved seeds–Inputs (fake or

costly)–Quelea bird–Low knowledge

•Poor quality –Lack of equipment–Cheating–Mixing varieties

•Labor challenges •Subsistence

orientation

• Post-harvest losses (up to 18% reported)–Lack of storage

facilities –Transport challenges

•Middlemen/women’s stranglehold

•Payment on quantity rather than quality

• Informal market dominance, thus low value addition

• Low product diversity• Low-quality products

(complaints of sand)• Inability to address

changing markets–Urban poor–Urban rich

• No supply guarantees on quantity, quality, or price

• High costs (energy, packaging)

• Low access to equipment

• Low level of product development

Policy should focus on how to deliver better

services and catalyze innovations

Poor image

Product development

Globalization and

Modernization”

Low productivity and poor quality

• Yields have remained low making them uncompetitive (they have been given less attention by researchers –orphan crops) Huge challenge for the quelea bird

• Low attention to quality-mixed with organic impurities and sand (poor husbandry and also to cheat on weight!)

Why are traditional cereals losing ground?

• Traditional cereals are produced and eaten by the poor and thus tend to be equated with backwardness (NRC 1996)

• Properties not well understood so misinformation in nutrition and other properties has cemented poor image

• Urbanization has created demand for convenient foods.• Traditional staples require more time and energy to prepare• Product development has not kept with changing needs (low

product development knowhow and lack of equipment)

• Opening of trade has subjected them to competition from more competitive and also subsidized producers

• Exposure to other cultures has created taste for foods seen as “modern”

Quelea- “Africa’s Most Hated Bird’ is a key reason for shift maize diets in Eastern and Southern Africa

A flock of quelea brids in Tsavo National park, Kenya

Areas affected by the quelea birds

Source: National Geographhic, Weaver Research Unit. Map reflects range as of 2012, McCann 2001.

The darker green shows areas of high breeding effort.

The Quelea is the most abundant wild bird species in the world, forming huge colonies consisting of up to 30 million birds, with an adult breeding population

estimated at 1.5-5 billion pairs. Quelea are capable of destroying entire crops, areas up to 1,000 hectares. Thus nicknamed the “feathered locust.

They are the reason for diet shift to maize in East and Southern Africa!

For Sorghum and Millet framers in Kenya, Quelea bird is influencing faming decisions and creating vulnerabilities

Source: Field survey 2015

Constraints to sorghum and millet production (% farmers reporting)

9.30% 12.10% 22.40% 22.40% 35.50%

78.50% 86.90%

Shifted to pigeon peas

Shifted from white to red

sorghum

Reduced sorghum acreage

Shifted to beans

Shifted to green grams

Shifted to cowpeas

Shifted to maize

8.8%13.8% 16.3% 18.8% 21.3% 23.8%

43.0% Farmers adjusting farming of sorghum and millet due to Quelea (% reporting)

shift to maize is making the farmers more

vulnerable

Health conscious

middle class

Afro-centric trends?.

.

• Millet has the best nutrition quality of all cereals

• Sorghum has superlative anti-oxidant qualities

• Many health themed restaurants opening in Kampala and East Africa

A Window of Opportunity is Opening up in East Africa

Low income Urban

consumer market

• Scope for developing cheap and convenience foods. Extruded products

• In Kenya extruded sorghum flour and sorghum noodles are being marketed

These products are now touted as the new

superfoods as people look for alternatives to quinoa.

Already Teff demand is very high

• A new middle class that is not ashamed of its traditions. Many upscale restaurants serving traditional foods

• Traditional products well packaged are getting positive response in Uganda g. Obushera drink

10

78

148

8

Anti-Oxidant equivalent

School feeding and

food aid programs

• School feeding programs can shape diets and create future demand, But care

• WFP starting to purchase traditional staples for food aid distribution

Ancient Grains Growing Popularity

• Unique origin, history and culture

• Ancient grains saw a 50% growth across all categories, and a 44% growth in the cereal category in US

• With ancient grains on the label, you could increase the price by 50-300%

Millet and Sorghum are the quintessential ancient grains

High income consumers value the health benefits of traditional cereals compared to lower income consumers

11

Potential for food manufacturers and

supermarkets to collaborate on product

development

Family size Cheap Healthy

73%

13%20%

33%

0%

67%

Low Income High Income

Reasons for Future consumption (% Response)

Sorghum

Millet

Family size Cheap Healthy

69%

10%

23%

39%

23%

39%

Millet Low Income Millet High Income

• Potential for development of high value healthy food products targeted at the emerging middle class

• Supermarket likely to be enthusiastic as they prefer goods that can provide high margins

• Supermarkets are powerful in shaping diets especially of the middle class

Though consumers indicate preference for millet due to perceived higher nutrition , millet lack product diversity

Millet products awareness (%)

Grains preference (% expressing) Reason for Millet preference (% expressing)

Affordability taste Availability Nutrition

11.5

19.824.4

44.3

Other starchy grains Millet

40.2

59.8

Pop millet

Millet rice

Beer

Millet cookies

Biscuits

Bread

Flour

1%

3%

6%

8%

10%

26%

97% • Flour is the millet product mostly known and is mainly used for porridge and ugali/Kalo

• Narrow product range limits the market for millet

• Millet is preferred to other grains and more importantly preference due to nutrition underscoring the potential for development of high value products

Millet foods eaten (%)

Maandazi

cookies

Ugali

Porridge

1%

1%

52%

62%

1.3 1.6 1.8 2.6 5.1 9.416.8

63.7

Product diversification is mainly challenged by lack of machinery

Source: Field survey 2014

Constraints to diversifying millet product range (% processors reporting)

Processors lack if equipment as challenge for various millet products (% reporting)

Millet Rice Millet Bread Millet Cookies Pop Millet Extruded products

Biscuits

64.163.5

62.5 62.5

63.6

66.2

Markets should drive the direction of the value chain.

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How to link research and entrepreneurs so that

product innovations can be commercialized to address

new markets?

What does the market want?

• Image building should be a big part of value chain development. For experiments in Senegal indicated that innovative labelling local rice can give it premium of 17% on the market price

• The other side of the coin is R&D. Products must be competitive!

Where is the market?

• How are diets shaped?• In the emerging urban markets:– The urban poor want

convenience and cheap food.– The urban middle class want

convenience and healthy food.

• Urban markets now dominate 50% of all agricultural products, but how to tap the market?

• Regional integration and the rise of regional supermarkets is new bigger markets

Product development of traditional grains has some distance to go

Grains & Simple Floors

Ready To Eat (RTE), Ready to Drinks (RTE

• Bulk of sorghum and millet products located here.

• Little value addition beyond milling

• Typical product is porridge

• Targeting health conscious consumers

• Mainly porridge

Fortified floors

• Targeting consumers that value convenience

• Range of products including cereals and drinks

For traditional cereals to regain their position, a three pronged approach is needed

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Questions• What should be subsidized? Farm production or processing or

image or market channels• What is the role of policy (government)- How should food policy look like? How to harmonize industrial

policy and agricultural policy. Note Nigeria banned import of barley forcing brewers and food processors to turn to sorghum as the key to producing malt

- What to prioritize? Millet and sorghum have low priority in Uganda, however, Kenya has now put millet and sorghum as priority crops

Product developmentStrong supply chain Image building• Emphasis on food

science research to meet market needs

• Development of needed machines (new technologies)

Needs farmers to deliver • Low Price• Consistent Quantity• Consistent Quality

How to support small scale farmers to deliver this?

• More that call for return to tradition. Need good products that appeal to needs

• Use marketing professionals to repair image

What Inclusive Business models are

needed to ensure strong and profitable value chain that links

small holders to processors and to

markets

Product innovation

• Gari has emerged as the defacto meal for the urban poor• Odorless fufu has penetrated middle class and diaspora

markets• Attieke is competing with rice of texture and convenience• HQFC now substituting wheat

What can cassava resilience in West Africa teach us?

Technology innovation

• Strong local fabrication capacity has delivered appropriate technologies for processing

• Innovative business models have technologies available to poor farmers

Makerere has innovated many millet and sorghum products.

However commercialization underscoring the need for a strong innovation

systems

1961 20118%

21%14%

14%9%

13%8%

12%25%

11%23% 10%

2% 9%3% 4%4% 3%2% 2%

%share of Top 10 foods (KCal/Capita/Yr)

Rice Cassava

Maize Yams

Sorghum Millet

Wheat Pulses, Other

Plantains Vegetables, Other

Farm Production Marketing and distribution

Innovation requires an ecosystems able to address challenges across the whole value chain

Logistics Processing Impact

Hat

Researcher/Innovator Entrepreneur

User

Support –Financing, extension

Policy Maker

However, it was also pointed that its operation requires a trained operator, which adds complexity and costs

Some bird-shaped UAVs are already in use and can help evaluate the potential of drones to combat the bird menace.

EPP Peregrine BirdXPeller

Source: National Geographic, Weaver Research Unit

The BirdXPeller Predator Drone integrates an auditory bird-scaring system with the visual features of a predator and the mobility of an RCA.

The EPP Peregrine, a Remote Controlled Aircraft (RCA) designed to look like a peregrine falcon when flying above, can be used as a tool to scare away pest birds.

RAND and ACET are studying the

potential for using drones to manage the

quelea bird

• A contest format has the advantage of encouraging many different groups to be involved, as contestants, spectators, and judges. Contests create drama and have also served as highly successful forms of entertainment.

• The contest will:⁻ Solicit both chefs and citizens to develop recipes that use millet/sorghum as a

primary ingredient and are delicious, nutritious, attractive, and convenient.⁻ Offer prizes for the best recipes, with widely publicized tasting events for judges to

pick the best dishes. Judging events will be coordinated with local media to optimize coverage.

⁻ Create several categories of recipes in order to increase the variety and scope for uses of millet/sorghum.

⁻ Try to encourage the use of millet/sorghum in processed foods, e.g., as an ingredient in noodles, breads, or crispy snacks, which could potentially stimulate new industries that will produce healthier prepared products.

Formative ResearchRecipe

Contest/Product Design

Impact Evaluation and Strategy Refinement

1

Recipe Dissemination and Tasting/Product

Testing

2 3 4

Another intervention is a recipe contest to showcase them as “modern foods” that can be used in a wide variety of dishes and thus change perceptions.

Markets should drive the direction of the value chain.

Markets should drive the direction of the value chain.

The intervention will aim to rebrand millet and sorghum as East African superfoods and showcase them as foods that can meet demands of the modern family

21

. When Oprah talked about Quinoa, the price sky-rocked. Kale has also seen demand grow after Actress and Celebrity chef Gwyneth Paltrow endorsed it

Sorghum and millet now being touted as the new global superfoods. Demand for Teff is now making Ethiopia rethink the export of this staple and has limited exports

Celebrities are key to shaping diets

Demand for traditional grains likely to go global Be

What middle class consumes sends strong

signals to general consumers

22

These are now being touted the next quinoa

(touted as the most nutritious food crop

Questions

23

These are now being touted the next quinoa

(touted as the most nutritious food crop

• Need high value traditional products on the shelf ( and also in delis!)• Innovative restaurants that offer new recipes (and even do home delivery!)

• Social marketing to dispel myths• Prioritize traditional grains in national food policy means:

⁻ Support in controlling the bird -supportive industrial policy

Government and research

Farmers

.Concerted efforts by many stakeholders is needed

Supermarkets and food markets

Getting the youth s onboard is crucial. Social media and new tools will be

deployed

• Traceability is key in making a superfoods as consumers demand it• High quality standards and guaranteed supply key so need strong

supply chains

Processors• Need creative processors able to take recipes and develop high

value products• Savvy at marketing

Media• Media will be key in re-branding• Use of celebrity chefs and other celebrities

• Seen as more nutritious (have more protein, micro-nutrients that new cereals replacing them

• An emerging class of health conscious consumers• Concern for climate change making draught resistant crops popular

• Poor image• Low priority by research and thus low productivity• Lack of products to meet new food trends/demands (only flour and

composite four products

Traditional grains are

losing ground

Innovation is needed

.Highlights

New Opportunity

Traditional grains now seen globally ad the new superfoods.

Foods fetching 50-300% premium

• Innovations across the whole value chain to ensure quality and consistent supply, and products that market wants

• Strong innovation systems that link researchers to entrepreneurs so that innovations are commercialized

But there are Challenges

• Quality problems (sand and many impurities) and inconsistent supply to processors

• Processors lack product development knowhow and requisite equipment

Branding and policy support

needed

• We need to rebrand traditional grains (Use of celebrity chefs, media campaigns etc)

• Policies to support upgrading of the value chain e.g. rebates on processing equipment, mandates (5% sorghum bread)

Quelea- “Africa’s Most Hated Bird’ is a threat to some six million square miles of Africa farm lands

A flock of quelea brids in Tsavo National park, Kenya

Areas affected by the quelea birds

Source: National Geographhic, Weaver Research Unit. Map reflects range as of 2012, McCann 2001.

The darker green shows areas of high breeding effort.

The Quelea is the most abundant wild bird species in the world, forming huge colonies consisting of up to 30 million birds, with an adult breeding population

estimated at 1.5-5 billion pairs. Quelea are capable of destroying entire crops, areas up to 1,000 hectares. Thus nicknamed the “feathered locust.

They are the reason for diet shift to maize IN East and Southern Africa!

The future of sorghum and millet farming will largely depend on how well the quelea bird is managed.

27

RAND/ACET is looking at the

potential for using drones to manage

the birds.

• The quelea is known as “Africa’s Most Hated Bird.” These birds can eat 50–100% of a 1,000 ha crop in half an hour (a flock can number up to 50 million birds).

• Farmers have traditionally managed queleas by guarding the crop continually for two months and using catapults and making loud noises to scare them.

• Industrial-scale control measures are largely unaffordable. Most small-scale farmers have no access to aircraft, fuel, chemicals, dynamite, or flamethrowers.

Most important constraint to sorghum production (% farmers reporting)

Theft Domestic animals Wildlife Weeds Other birds Striga Quelea

3%

12% 14%

39%47%

52%

63%

Trend in Quinoa Prices

Oprah Winfrey shout out

UN Year of Quinoa

Canada producesQuinoa

29

MegaSlums and informal sector

MegaSlums and informal sector

The Rise of SupermarketsThe Rise of Supermarkets

•Climate will have impact on food supply (20%-50% drop in yields

•Traditional staples like millet, sorghum and cassava could are more hardy and likely to be more resilient

Climate ChangeClimate Change

Innovative and Inclusive food

clusters will be key to addressing this

challenges

Future challenges/opportunities for traditional grains

• Growing slums with many consumers that need cheap and convenient foods

• Informal sector will be the biggest sector but can it rise to the opportunities offered

• Are likely to dominate retail in the future and have a great say in supply chains. Focus on efficiency and costs

• Where does this leave the small suppliers?

Rising Middle ClassRising Middle Class

•Have a taste for imported goods and big brands and have the purchasing power- Will business divert their resources to this

market?

The evolution of food markets and how traditional staples

respond will be key to them staying relevant

Traditional cereals have been losing their share at the dinner table in East Africa to “New” Cereals

30

1961 2011

32% 36%

7%13%

16%11%8%11%11%7%9% 5%

6% 5%3% 5%3% 4%5% 2%

Maize Wheat CassavaRice Sorghum Cereals, OtherPulses, Other Beans Sweet PotatoesMillet

Share in top 10 calories suppliers (2011)

• Diet shift has made the region more vulnerable₋ Maize is a fragile crop

and very sensitive to draught

₋ New foods especially wheat and rice are largely imported thus high food bills and vulnerable to global commodities volatile markets (2007 food crisis)Millets and sorghums are adapted to region

agro-ecological conditions

Note that millet is no longer in the top 10 calorie suppliers in 2011 though it was in 1961. Calories supply from sugar and oils excluded in ranking

The rise of supermarkets is changing the market place

3131

To what extent will entry of supermarket influence diets. Deli”s is the latest

of their innovations.

• The traditional market for traditional staples is the open traditional market that is being rapidly displaced

• Supermarkets can have strong influence on food choices

Will traditional staples capture shelf spaceSupermarkets displacing traditional markets

• Supermarkets prefer using their preferred suppliers

• Small holders (who supply traditional stales) are ill-prepared to meet the demands of supermarkets (quality, packaging etc)

• Supermarket prefer goods that can provide high margins

• Supermarkets are beginning to sell space to manufacturers rather than stocking goods.