britannia industries (brit in)static-news.moneycontrol.com/.../2019/05/britannia... · britannia...

May 2, 2019 1

Rating: ACCUMULATE | CMP: Rs2,783 | TP: Rs3,145

Innovations and cost savings to led growth

Quick Pointers:

Confident of achieving double digit volume growth

Innovations expected to contribute 9% to sales in FY20 (4.5% in FY19)

Cost efficiency programs to generate savings of Rs2.7bn (Rs2.25bn in FY19)

BRIT remains optimistic on demand acceleration and double digit volume

growth led by 1) expected surge in rural demand post interim budget and

normal monsoon forecast 2) targeted 9% contribution from innovations in

FY20 (4.5% in FY19) 3) sustained levers of direct distribution expansion

(0.25m addition/year) and 4) higher growth in Hindi heartland

BRIT expects Input cost inflation to be higher in FY20 (currently 3%) mainly

led by wheat flour, sugar and SMP. Calibrated price increases and benefit of

Rs2.7bn from cost efficiency program (Rs2.25bn in FY18 and FY19) will

enable moderate margin expansion.

Innovations pipeline remains strong led by 1) good response to new launches

like Treat cream wafers, Winky Cow milk shakes 2) expansion of cakes

portfolio in Brownie, Swiss Rolls and layered cakes 3) maiden entry into

salted snacks under Timepass brand 4) launch of Treat croissants and 5)

growth in core segments post launch of Treat stars, Treat bursts, Milk Bikis

Choco cream, Whole Wheat Vita Marie Gold and GoodDay Cashew Almond.

Although volume growth for 2H19 was only 7%, We estimate 17.9% PAT

CAGR over FY19-21 and value the stock at 46xFY21 EPS given robust growth

outlook and strong innovation pipeline. We arrive at a SOTP based target

price of Rs3145. Retain Accumulate.

Concall Takeaways: 1) 4Q volumes were up 7%, BRIT is confident of double digit

volume growth in FY20 2) Rural sales for Britannia are growing at high double

digits as against single digit sales for Urban India. There has been demand

slowdown of upto 5% since Sept’18 mainly in rural areas 3) Innovations contributed

4.5% to sales in FY19, this is expected to increase to 9% in FY20 4) New launches

like Milk Shakes, Cream wafers, Croissants, Cake variants and Salted snacks and

new variants in biscuits have evoked good response 5) BRIT has launched

differentiated snacks under Timepass brand in south India with price points of

Rs5/10/20. BRIT is aiming a sale of Rs5bn in 5 years 6) Current inflation is 3%,

expect slightly higher inflation in FY20 due to higher prices of wheat flour (increase

in import duty to 40%) and increases in prices of SMP, Sugar and Milk. 7) BRIT has

targeted cost savings of Rs2.7bn in FY20, an increase of 400mn from FY19.

(Rs2.25bn in FY18 and FY19) 8) Calibrated price increases shall be taken in FY20

to mitigate input cost inflation. 9) FY19 witnessed healthy market share expansion

with exit share higher than the average. 10) 7 lines in Ranjangaon has already been

in operation (4 biscuits, 2 cakes and 1 croissants) which is now being scaled up. In

FY20, 3 more lines (2 in biscuits and 1 in new innovations) would become

operational. 11) Capex for FY20 is targeted ~Rs 4-4.5bn 12) Some export sourcing

was done even in 4Q as Oman factory remained shut, however the quantum is

expected to decline in coming quarters.

Britannia Industries (BRIT IN)

May 2, 2019

Q4FY19 Result Update

☑ Change in Estimates | ☑ Target | Reco

Change in Estimates

Current Previous

FY20E FY21E FY20E FY21E

Rating ACCUMULATE ACCUMULATE

Target Price 3,145 3,142

Sales (Rs. m) 120,586 138,848 120,586 138,848

% Chng. - -

EBITDA (Rs. m) 19,746 23,533 19,716 23,367

% Chng. 0.2 0.7

EPS (Rs.) 53.4 64.8 53.5 64.7

% Chng. (0.2) 0.1

Key Financials

FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

Sales (Rs. m) 93,041 104,826 120,586 138,848

EBITDA (Rs. m) 14,275 16,357 19,746 23,533

Margin (%) 15.3 15.6 16.4 16.9

PAT (Rs. m) 9,616 10,806 12,833 15,575

EPS (Rs.) 40.0 45.0 53.4 64.8

Gr. (%) 13.9 12.3 18.8 21.4

DPS (Rs.) 12.5 15.0 17.5 21.0

Yield (%) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8

RoE (%) 33.1 29.7 31.5 33.5

RoCE (%) 44.7 41.1 40.6 40.1

EV/Sales (x) 7.0 6.2 5.4 4.6

EV/EBITDA (x) 45.7 39.8 32.9 27.3

PE (x) 69.5 61.9 52.1 42.9

P/BV (x) 20.7 16.6 16.2 12.9

Key Data BRIT.BO | BRIT IN

52-W High / Low Rs.3,472 / Rs.2,610

Sensex / Nifty 38,981 / 11,725

Market Cap Rs.669bn/ $ 9,636m

Shares Outstanding 240m

3M Avg. Daily Value Rs.2475.43m

Shareholding Pattern (%)

Promoter’s 50.66

Foreign 15.75

Domestic Institution 12.37

Public & Others 21.22

Promoter Pledge (Rs bn) -

Stock Performance (%)

1M 6M 12M

Absolute (7.1) (0.6) 2.6

Relative (7.3) (12.2) (7.5)

Amnish Aggarwal

[email protected] | 91-22-66322233

Nishita Doshi

[email protected] | 91-22-66322381

Britannia Industries

May 2, 2019 2

Domestic Volume growth at 7%: Standalone Net sales increased by 11.7% YoY

to Rs 26.68bn, 7% volume growth (12% in 4Q18 and 7% in 3Q19). Gross profit

increased 21.5% YoY to Rs 10.9bn with 330bps margin expansion (20bps decline

QoQ). Inflation for BRIT has remained moderate in key raw materials. EBITDA

increased 14.2% to Rs4.22bn on 30bps margin expansion to 15.8% as other

expenses increased by 340bps despite decline in staff costs by 50bps. Adj. PAT

increased 18.4% YoY to Rs 2.9bn due to flat depreciation, 45.7% increase in other

income and 30bps increase in tax rate. BRIT launched “Treat Burst”, “Treat Stars”,

and “Milk Bikis Chocolate Cream” in the premium category. BRIT also did pilot

launch of “Treat Croissant” & “Timepass Salted Snacks” in few channels /

geographies. BRIT has commissioned the Greenfield unit at Nepal in Apr’19.

Q4FY19 Result Overview: Sales up 11.7%, EBITDA up 14.2% led by cost efficiencies and gross margin expansion

Y/e March (Rs m) Q4FY19 Q4FY18 YoY gr. (%) Q3FY19 FY19 FY18 YoY gr. (%)

Net Sales 26,681 23,884 11.7 27,032 1,04,826 93,041 12.7

Gross Profit 10,912 8,983 21.5 11,117 42,050 35,306 19.1

Margins (%) 40.9 37.6 41.1 40.1 37.9

Other Expenses 6,689 5,285 26.6 6,654 25,441 21,031 21.0

% of Sales 25.1 22.1 24.6 24.3 22.6

EBITDA 4,222 3,699 14.2 4,463 16,609 14,275 16.3

Margins (%) 15.8 15.5 16.5 15.8 15.3

Depreciation 363 363 (0.1) 369 1,350 1,198 12.7

Interest 3 3 9.7 4 15 15 6.2

Other Income 583 400 45.7 554 1,918 1,559 23.0

PBT 4,439 3,733 18.9 4,645 17,161 14,622 17.4

Tax 1,542 1,286 19.9 1,618 5,939 4,973 19.4

Tax Rate (%) 34.7 34.4 34.8 34.6 34.0

Adjusted PAT 2,897 2,447 18.4 3,027 11,222 9,649 16.3

Source: Company, PL

Volume growth at 7% on a high base and muted demand

12.011.0 11.0

10.0

8

7.0

1.52.0

2.5

6.0

13.012.0

13.012.0

7.0 7.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

Q1F

Y16

Q2F

Y16

Q3F

Y16

Q4F

Y16

Q1F

Y17

Q2F

Y17

Q3F

Y17

Q4F

Y17

Q1F

Y18

Q2F

Y18

Q3F

Y18

Q4F

Y18

Q1F

Y19

Q2F

Y19

Q3F

Y19

Q4F

Y19

Source: Company Data, PL Research


May 2, 2019 3

3% Inflation in 4Q19 mainly led by inflation in Flour; Inflation to be slightly heightened in FY20

Source: Company, PL

BRIT has become the market leader in biscuits with healthy expansion in market share

Source: Company, PL


May 2, 2019 4

Direct reach has increased 2.8x; Weak states continue to grow faster

Source: Company, PL

BRIT’s innovations and renovation continues with strong innovation pipeline

Source: Company, PL


May 2, 2019 5

BRIT entered new Categories in Cream wafers, Milkshakes, Croissants and Salted snacks; relaunched Cake

portfolio in new formats and bridged portfolio gap

Source: Company, PL


May 2, 2019 6

Financials

Income Statement (Rs m)

Y/e Mar FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

Net Revenues 93,041 104,826 120,586 138,848

YoY gr. (%) 10.6 12.7 15.0 15.1

Cost of Goods Sold 57,735 63,028 72,019 82,523

Gross Profit 35,306 41,798 48,567 56,324

Margin (%) 37.9 39.9 40.3 40.6

Employee Cost 2,779 3,216 3,825 4,478

Other Expenses 5,297 6,787 7,412 8,473

EBITDA 14,275 16,357 19,746 23,533

YoY gr. (%) 18.5 14.6 20.7 19.2

Margin (%) 15.3 15.6 16.4 16.9

Depreciation and Amortization 1,198 1,350 1,733 2,041

EBIT 13,077 15,007 18,013 21,492

Margin (%) 14.1 14.3 14.9 15.5

Net Interest 15 15 557 557

Other Income 1,526 1,753 2,121 2,807

Profit Before Tax 14,589 16,745 19,577 23,742

Margin (%) 15.7 16.0 16.2 17.1

Total Tax 4,973 5,939 6,744 8,167

Effective tax rate (%) 34.1 35.5 34.5 34.4

Profit after tax 9,616 10,806 12,833 15,575

Minority interest - - - -

Share Profit from Associate - - - -

Adjusted PAT 9,616 10,806 12,833 15,575

YoY gr. (%) 14.0 12.4 18.8 21.4

Margin (%) 10.3 10.3 10.6 11.2

Extra Ord. Income / (Exp) (170) - - -

Reported PAT 9,446 10,806 12,833 15,575

YoY gr. (%) 12.0 14.4 18.8 21.4

Margin (%) 10.2 10.3 10.6 11.2

Other Comprehensive Income (4) (21) - -

Total Comprehensive Income 9,442 10,785 12,833 15,575

Equity Shares O/s (m) 240 240 240 240

EPS (Rs) 40.0 45.0 53.4 64.8


Balance Sheet Abstract (Rs m)


Non-Current Assets

Gross Block 17,736 22,049 26,589 30,634

Tangibles 17,389 21,659 26,159 30,159

Intangibles 347 390 430 475

Acc: Dep / Amortization 7,423 8,773 10,506 12,547

Tangibles 7,156 8,459 10,137 12,116


Net fixed assets 10,313 13,276 16,083 18,087

Tangibles 10,233 13,200 16,022 18,043


Capital Work In Progress 2,003 649 1,399 1,899

Goodwill - - - -

Non-Current Investments 6,055 11,607 5,758 5,931

Net Deferred tax assets 87 (39) (146) (265)

Other Non-Current Assets 141 295 199 241

Current Assets

Investments 15,542 17,161 24,861 32,061

Inventories 5,946 7,189 8,488 9,782

Trade receivables 2,303 3,510 4,022 4,458

Cash & Bank Balance 943 405 881 946

Other Current Assets 2,895 2,127 3,586 4,133

Total Assets 46,273 56,491 65,490 77,688

Equity

Equity Share Capital 240 240 240 240

Other Equity 32,113 40,154 40,952 51,458

Total Networth 32,353 40,395 41,193 51,698

Non-Current Liabilities

Long Term borrowings 3 3 7,214 7,214

Provisions - - - -

Other non current liabilities - - - -

Current Liabilities

ST Debt / Current of LT Debt 223 - - -

Trade payables 8,664 10,325 10,885 11,878

Other current liabilities 4,774 5,498 5,915 6,600

Total Equity & Liabilities 46,273 56,491 65,490 77,689



May 2, 2019 7

Cash Flow (Rs m)

Y/e Mar FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E Year

PBT 14,622 17,161 19,577 23,742

Add. Depreciation 1,198 1,350 1,733 2,041

Add. Interest 15 15 557 557

Less Financial Other Income 1,526 1,753 2,121 2,807

Add. Other (867) (3,183) (3,333) (4,443)

Op. profit before WC changes 14,967 15,343 18,534 21,898

Net Changes-WC (4,286) (1,167) (10,029) (7,839)

Direct tax (4,973) (5,939) (6,744) (8,167)

Net cash from Op. activities 5,708 8,238 1,761 5,891

Capital expenditures (4,822) (2,960) (5,290) (4,545)

Interest / Dividend Income 1,506 1,733 2,101 2,789

Others 183 (5,253) 6,001 (1)

Net Cash from Invt. activities (3,134) (6,480) 2,812 (1,757)

Issue of share cap. / premium 1,181 1,556 (6,406) 1,558

Debt changes 120 (223) 7,211 -

Dividend paid (3,179) (3,614) (4,345) (5,069)

Interest paid (15) (15) (557) (557)

Others - - - -

Net cash from Fin. activities (1,892) (2,296) (4,097) (4,069)

Net change in cash 682 (538) 476 66

Free Cash Flow 885 5,278 (3,529) 1,346


Quarterly Financials (Rs m)

Y/e Mar Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19

Net Revenue 24,067 27,046 27,032 26,681

YoY gr. (%) 13.6 13.4 12.1 11.7

Raw Material Expenses 14,646 16,446 15,915 15,770

Gross Profit 9,421 10,600 11,117 10,912

Margin (%) 39.1 39.2 41.1 40.9

EBITDA 3,677 4,247 4,463 4,222

YoY gr. (%) (0.6) 15.5 5.1 (5.4)

Margin (%) 15.3 15.7 16.5 15.8

Depreciation / Depletion 304 315 369 363

EBIT 3,374 3,932 4,094 3,859

Margin (%) 14.0 14.5 15.1 14.5

Net Interest 5 4 4 3

Other Income 385 395 554 583

Profit before Tax 3,754 4,323 4,645 4,439

Margin (%) 15.6 16.0 17.2 16.6

Total Tax 1,292 1,488 1,618 1,542

Effective tax rate (%) 34.4 34.4 34.8 34.7

Profit after Tax 2,462 2,836 3,027 2,897

Minority interest - - - -

Share Profit from Associates - - - -

Adjusted PAT 2,462 2,836 3,027 2,897

YoY gr. (%) 18.0 8.1 21.5 18.4

Margin (%) 10.2 10.5 11.2 10.9

Extra Ord. Income / (Exp) - - - -

Reported PAT 2,462 2,836 3,027 2,897

YoY gr. (%) 18.0 15.6 21.5 18.4

Margin (%) 10.2 10.5 11.2 10.9

Other Comprehensive Income (1) (1) (1) (18)

Total Comprehensive Income 2,461 2,835 3,026 2,879

Avg. Shares O/s (m) 240 240 240 240

EPS (Rs) 10.3 11.8 12.6 12.1


Key Financial Metrics


Per Share(Rs)

EPS 40.0 45.0 53.4 64.8

CEPS 45.0 50.6 60.6 73.3

BVPS 134.7 168.1 171.4 215.1

FCF 3.7 22.0 (14.7) 5.6

DPS 12.5 15.0 17.5 21.0

Return Ratio(%)

RoCE 44.7 41.1 40.6 40.1

ROIC 43.9 38.6 45.3 48.1

RoE 33.1 29.7 31.5 33.5

Balance Sheet

Net Debt : Equity (x) (0.5) (0.4) (0.4) (0.5)

Net Working Capital (Days) (2) 1 5 6

Valuation(x)

PER 69.5 61.9 52.1 42.9

P/B 20.7 16.6 16.2 12.9

P/CEPS 61.8 55.0 45.9 38.0

EV/EBITDA 45.7 39.8 32.9 27.3

EV/Sales 7.0 6.2 5.4 4.6

Dividend Yield (%) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8



May 2, 2019 8

Price Chart Recommendation History

No. Date Rating TP (Rs.) Share Price (Rs.)

1 17-May-18 BUY 6,170 5,469

2 23-May-18 BUY 6,170 5,596

3 21-Jun-18 BUY 6,170 5,966

4 10-Jul-18 Accumulate 6,170 6,217

5 8-Aug-18 Accumulate 6,568 6,301

6 5-Oct-18 Accumulate 6,588 5,625

7 13-Nov-18 Accumulate 6,298 5,813

8 7-Jan-19 Accumulate 3,231 3,144

9 11-Feb-19 Accumulate 3,159 3,108

10 5-Apr-19 Accumulate 3,142 2,994

Analyst Coverage Universe

Sr. No. CompanyName Rating TP (Rs) Share Price (Rs)

1 Asian Paints Accumulate 1,480 1,514

2 Avenue Supermarts Reduce 1,270 1,449

3 Britannia Industries Accumulate 3,142 2,994

4 Colgate Palmolive Hold 1,258 1,227

5 Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals BUY 272 232

6 Dabur India Hold 454 400

7 Emami Accumulate 484 412

8 Future Retail BUY 554 446

9 GlaxoSmithKline Consumer Healthcare Hold 8,139 6,996

10 Hindustan Unilever Hold 1,854 1,659

11 ITC BUY 362 295

12 Jubilant FoodWorks Accumulate 1,458 1,418

13 Kansai Nerolac Paints Accumulate 498 467

14 Marico Hold 371 357

15 Nestle India Accumulate 10,828 10,981

16 Pidilite Industries Accumulate 1,163 1,287

17 Titan Company BUY 1,195 1,106

18 Voltas Accumulate 600 609

PL’s Recommendation Nomenclature (Absolute Performance)

Buy : > 15%

Accumulate : 5% to 15%

Hold : +5% to -5%

Reduce : -5% to -15%

Sell : < -15%

Not Rated (NR) : No specific call on the stock

Under Review (UR) : Rating likely to change shortly

1282

1831

2379

2927

3475

May -

16

Nov -

16

May -

17

Oct

- 17

Ap

r -

18

Oct

- 18

Ap

r -

19

(Rs)


May 2, 2019 9

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

(Indian Clients)

We/I, Mr. Amnish Aggarwal- MBA, CFA, Ms. Nishita Doshi- CA, B.Com Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report.

(US Clients)

The research analysts, with respect to each issuer and its securities covered by them in this research report, certify that: All of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect his or her or their personal views about all of the issuers and their securities; and No part of his or her or their compensation was, is or will be directly related to the specific recommendation or views expressed in this research report.

DISCLAIMER

Indian Clients

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This document has been prepared by the Research Division of PL and is meant for use by the recipient only as information and is not for circulation. This document is not to be reported or copied or made available to others without prior permission of PL. It should not be considered or taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or sell any security.

The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources that are considered to be reliable. However, PL has not independently verified the accuracy or completeness of the same. Neither PL nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility of whatsoever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission therein.

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PL or its associates might have received compensation from the subject company in the past twelve months.

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It is confirmed that Mr. Amnish Aggarwal- MBA, CFA, Ms. Nishita Doshi- CA, B.Com Research Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months

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